Henri is the storm we have feared for decades

Reposted from CFACT

By Joe Bastardi |August 20th, 2021

The situation with Henri is growing dire. I strongly believe this will be stronger than the National Hurricane Center has at landfall. Their track has come to ours and ours is likely going to shift to the west this afternoon.

Note the SSTs to the east of the Virginia Capes:

This is as warm as the Gulf Loop Current. The outflow pattern tomorrow is as textbook-perfect as it can get, with two jets ventilating it.

Keep in mind unlike other storms in this region, Henri is coming into this area to intensify. Most storms that hit New England are coming out ot their area of highest intensity. Consequently, my call on intensity is down to 960 mb or lower at its peak late tomorrow afternoon or night, and a hit at 980 mb or lower. The water is quite warm relative average, even to the coast:

Low-level inflow and great upper-level support until landfall mean the weakening may be slower and only relative to how strong it gets in the first place.

Note the SSTs when Bob hit in 1991:

It was coming out of its area of maximum outflow support., not into it, and SSTs were much cooler. This current situation is the opposite:

As per our morning discussion, this will join the who’s who of the greatest storms in this area and for some will become the new benchmark. A shift to the west in my track (and I don’t like to do that since we have been stronger and farther to the west all along), is becoming more likely.

This storm is something my dad would talk to me about for years when I was young, the shortcut storm that hit the northeast moving west of north, There is nothing that says this cannot happen. After all Fran, in 1996, was moving west of north all the way to western PA, this is just displaced east.   But like the Texas freeze where I was doing cartwheels trying to get the media to pick up the week before, the bread and circus of the media and politics is ignoring what may be a dominating story by Monday morning. And what’s more, the weather weaponizers will be out in full force, when the very person who exposes this stuff has been talking about this for years for one, in our preseason forecast for 2 and all this week for 3.  It’s almost like they are climate predators, they wait until after, then pounce on the unsuspecting which is almost everyone since no one is paying attention until it’s obvious. Then they turn around and come after the people who were watching it, yelling they deny climate when climate and past events is what they use to set this up from afar!

The best one can do if the mission is like the Watchman in the bible is to try to show to all who will look and listen. And understand who it is who does not want that out until it can be used for their own purpose.

Henry is weather, not climate, but the time to prepare is NOW.

Author

Joe Bastardi

is a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting. He is the author of “The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore — and Others” which you can purchase at the CFACT bookstore. His new book The Weaponization of Weather in the Phony Climate war can be found here. phonyclimatewar.com

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mario lento
August 20, 2021 10:17 pm

I’m confused.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  mario lento
August 20, 2021 11:22 pm

Mario, look at the Weatherbell hurricane predictions. anything that happens in those high probability zones can ramp up extremely fast. This is one of those close-in developments that he has been warning of.

Mark D
Reply to  Pop Piasa
August 21, 2021 10:20 am

Is super spreader Henri wearing a mask? Aren’t masks required in that area?
Won’t Henri blow blue east coast covids far and wide. Damned Global warming! Hurricanes suck!

Bryan A
Reply to  Mark D
August 21, 2021 11:15 am

No…Hurricanes Blow

jmorpuss
Reply to  Bryan A
August 21, 2021 2:42 pm

NO… they actually suck

Scissor
Reply to  jmorpuss
August 21, 2021 3:32 pm

Both sucky eyes and blowing winds, with ocean heat moved up in the atmosphere eventually condensing water at elevation producing rain and thunderstorms.

TonyG
Reply to  Bryan A
August 21, 2021 4:39 pm

Don’t they blow because they suck?

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  mario lento
August 21, 2021 1:13 am

There’s no helping you, then. I suggest strong drink.

Leo Smith
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
August 21, 2021 5:38 am

“If I had all the money I’ve spent on drink…
…I’d spend it on drink”

— Sir Henry (at Rawlinsons End)

Jan de Jong
Reply to  mario lento
August 21, 2021 6:34 am

I’ve been following this one: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-71.95,32.99,2547/loc=-73.777,30.971
It’s moved NNE the last 24 hours.
That Henri?

Bryan A
Reply to  Jan de Jong
August 21, 2021 11:18 am

Henri has been trying really really hard to become an event as it travels northward. With media hype, he surely will

Scissor
Reply to  Bryan A
August 21, 2021 3:36 pm

Aren’t Hanky and Spanky nicknames for Henri?

Ted
Reply to  mario lento
August 21, 2021 8:32 am

I think the author is trying to say that this will be the strongest storm to hit Long Island/ New England in years, that he predicted it based on classical modeling, and that the climate alarmists will claim it as evidence of global warming.

DonM
Reply to  mario lento
August 21, 2021 10:26 am

They just shouldn’t let them build there … that’s the problem.

And rebuild. They shouldn’t be allowed to rebuild either.

(and if that logic looks personally familiar to anyone, they should try harder to concentrate on their own issues.)

Max More
Reply to  DonM
August 21, 2021 10:57 am

They should be allowed. They should not get their flood insurance subsidized.

Bill Powers
Reply to  Max More
August 22, 2021 9:58 am

Thanks Max you beat me to it. The Government, no matter the level, has not and should never have the power to prevent fools, with money, from throwing it away. Yet they continue to unconstitutionally send the bill for damages to taxpayers who do not have the money to build in natural destruction zones to begin with.

DonM
Reply to  Bill Powers
August 22, 2021 12:13 pm

Over the last 20 years I have removed more than 500 homes/properties from the mapped regulatory SFHA (special flood hazard area). Some of them 100 years old, with never any ponding damage. I always cringe when someone uses terms like ‘natural destruction zones’ or ‘dangerous floodplain’.

what does notural destruction zone mean?

DonM
Reply to  Max More
August 22, 2021 12:18 pm

There are 10 FEMA regions. The concept put forward by the regulators was that each region was to be their own insurance pool … and the insurance is required if they get a federally regulated loan. This concept crashed very fast.

The rate standards are to cover each region. But of course the govt is in charge and they just steal from Region X & V to pay for region IV. And when there isn’t enough to take from other Regions, they allocate it through the budget lies and legislature allocations. They (FEMA) planned on skyrocketing the rates 7 years ago, but the legislature had enuf complaints that they slowed the increases (but they are still eventually coming).
In my region a person can generally get insurance from Lloyds of London at a much lower rate than the ‘Govt subsidized’ rate. The private company is much better at guessing risk than is FEMA, and their overpaid employees. Generally, gov’t WYO policies cost more.

“The Homeowners Flood Insurance Affordability Act (HFIAA), passed in 2014, ended the 50-year monopoly the federal government held on the flood insurance market. The act was a move to finally create a stable, private flood insurance market for property in the US.” (The above quote is from a Lloyds site and it is part salesmanship …)

The reason that the Feds want the insurance program is that they manage the program & they get to make a living (and have power) by managing other peoples stuff … not because they want to subsidize anyone. Like all other govt assholes, they (indirectly) gouge just enough to keep their power & market share. If they raise the rates too much they will lose power and ‘market share’.

Last edited 2 months ago by DonM
DonM
Reply to  DonM
August 22, 2021 12:05 pm

*

Last edited 2 months ago by DonM
derwood kirby
Reply to  mario lento
August 21, 2021 12:29 pm

yah…that reminded me of someone trying to sound so smart that they forgot to give any pertinent information.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  derwood kirby
August 21, 2021 12:54 pm

that reminded me of someone trying to sound so smart that they forgot to give any pertinent information.

You just need to get used to Joe’s style. He can have a bit of a ‘stream of conciousness’ style at times, but the information is all there.

Last edited 2 months ago by Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  mario lento
August 21, 2021 2:22 pm

Hi, Confused.
I’m Petercat.
But I do wish the author had explained things in more layman terms.
I have no idea what an SST is, there’s too much happening in life to know every detail of every field.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Petercat
August 21, 2021 4:10 pm

Sea Surface Temperature

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 21, 2021 10:28 pm

Space shuttle
😀

mario lento
Reply to  Petercat
August 21, 2021 8:56 pm

Hi Petercat: SST Sea Surface Temperatures. The author is brilliant and I could not tell from the sarcasm what parts were what because I was unfamiliar with the status of the storm.

Mr.
August 20, 2021 10:23 pm

“The Perfect Storm”?
Again?

Joe you will get the same brush-off from the media that Cliff Mass did when he was predicting the June heat dome over Pacific NW America.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Mr.
August 20, 2021 11:30 pm

“freedom of the press is limited to those who own the presses.”
H.L. Mencken

Editor
Reply to  Mr.
August 21, 2021 6:09 am

Cliff Mass dismissed the idea of a heat dome over the Seattle area, where he’s based. He talked about downslope winds (think Santa Ana, Diablo, or chinook) making it across the Cascades and impacting Seattle for a day or two.

Yeah, from https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/06/the-reason-for-extreme-warmth-on-monday.html

A unique combination of factors will come together to make the unthinkable possible. Forget the “heat dome” explanations found in the Seattle Times and some media outlets, or those saying that the extreme heat can only be explained by global warming.

I will call the phenomenon a downslope heat surge on the western slopes of the Cascades.  

A relative of the extreme heat associated with Santa Ana winds in southern California, but with a twist.

Mr.
Reply to  Ric Werme
August 21, 2021 7:24 am

Yep.
I should have said “heatwave”

Editor
Reply to  Mr.
August 21, 2021 12:06 pm

I don’t know about Seattle, but in the northeast a heat wave is three or more days with high temperatures of 90°F.

While things certainly stayed hot east of the Cascades, they didn’t in Seattle. Cliff also reports:

Seattle now has a higher record maximum temperature than Miami, Atlanta, Washington DC, or Chicago. Portland’s record high exceeded that of Houston, Austin, or San Diego.  

Over 50 observing sites in western Washington surged above 110F

You want record high temperatures? Come to the Northwest!  

But we had not only had extreme heat….far beyond that observed over the past century… but also record-breaking cooling as a thin layer of marine air surged in last night.

Portland cooled by 52F (116 to 64) and Salem by 56F (117 to 61) in a matter of hours.

Seattle cooled by an impressive 46F!

Quillayute by 48F.

BTW, I attended a family gathering in the midst of all this. I arrived at SeaTac right around the high temp for the day (i.e. all time record high temp), drove with my daughter through Portland (dinner there) and on to Bend OR, east of the Cascades.

I can confirm it was hot!

When I got back to New Hampshire it was a very chilly 56°F and rainy. I rarely turn the heat on in my car when I’m wearing shorts!

MAL
Reply to  Ric Werme
August 21, 2021 3:56 pm

The highs in both of the Dakota will beat that hands down. Both are in the low 120s. Minnesota all time high is 115. I native of Minnesota and spend most of my adult life in North Dakota got tired of the cold moved to Arizona. The Pacific Northwest has no clue what hot is. Hot down here is when it above 110. the four digit temps are the normal all summer.

John Pickens
August 20, 2021 10:25 pm

I’d like to hear Joe B’s landfall windspeed predictions for Henri. And his best guess of where that will be.

griff
Reply to  John Pickens
August 21, 2021 1:35 am

Maybe he can use an altered forecast map then claim he didn’t…

Richard Page
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 5:18 am

Maybe his delusions and insanity will get the better of him. Or is that you, Griffy? Why don’t you just run along now hun – I’m sure there’s a nice padded room just waiting for you.

Mike McMillan
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 5:26 am

You’re thinking of the other Joe B.

Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 7:07 am

The griffter continues to promote the madness of crowds over this popular CO2 delusion.

MarkW
Reply to  Anti-griff
August 21, 2021 9:11 am

When you want to know what a leftist, or green, is doing, look what they are accusing others of doing.

IAMPCBOB
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 1:51 pm

Oh, you mean the way YOU do it, Griff/

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 10:32 pm

Grifter

ACCB7B82-B86D-4EAB-A27A-598482B3CFD9.jpeg
Editor
Reply to  John Pickens
August 21, 2021 12:09 pm

I just saw this. See below or the CFACT page. 980 mb at landfall, don’t know where. That’s about 81 mph – Category 1!

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Ric Werme
August 21, 2021 4:16 pm

I was watching the Weather Channel earlier, while Henri was still a tropical storm, and the Weather Girl got downright giddy when she told the audience that Henri would probably strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane. She was smiling from ear to ear for some reason. Like this was a good thing.

TonyG
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 22, 2021 9:48 am

“She can tell you ’bout the plane crash with a gleam in her eye”
– Henley observed this ages ago, but nobody was paying attention.

ren
August 20, 2021 11:01 pm

Hurricane Grace strengthened before just making landfall.comment image

ren
August 20, 2021 11:13 pm
Sara
Reply to  ren
August 21, 2021 4:43 am

ren, you should be much more interested in how WIDE the storm cloud will be. A smidgy little hurricane won’t do much damage outside a smallish area. Never mind radar maps, it’s the real-time, real world outer winds that you should be looking at.

Yooper
Reply to  Sara
August 22, 2021 4:45 am

Wasn’t Michael a smidgy little storm?

rbabcock
Reply to  ren
August 21, 2021 5:02 am

Henri is likely to make it past Virginia.

Sara
Reply to  rbabcock
August 21, 2021 8:22 am

I’m not tracking the storm’s path, but the local meteorology people do a lot of due diligence on that. If we get much out of Henri, it will likely be flooding around here. I will stock the pantry and the fridge, and settle in for the long haul.

ren
August 20, 2021 11:50 pm

Henri generates threatening thunderstorms on the East Coast.
https://www.blitzortung.org/en/live_lightning_maps.php

ren
Reply to  ren
August 21, 2021 12:11 am

The current increase in galactic radiation will increase air ionization. The jet stream will be more meridional.comment image

Greg
Reply to  ren
August 21, 2021 12:53 am

The jet stream will be more meridional.

and what will that mean?

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Greg
August 21, 2021 1:15 am

Artic air over Britain.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
August 21, 2021 1:15 am

Arctic.

griff
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
August 21, 2021 1:36 am

More people need tin foil hats?

Though from the above there are already a few too many wearing them

Derg
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 1:45 am

Hello pot?

pigs_in_space
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 1:50 am

Griff you are the nutter.

It’s quite well known that some changes in solar proton stream & neutron count have some effect on the jetstream.
It certainly has a strong effect on aurora which will have its autumn peak in a matter of weeks from now.

The vikings equated high aurora with bad weather, and here in Europe the swallows flew home 2 weeks early.

We just don’t really know what effect it has, although speculation is rife.
We also do know the earth’s magnetic field is both weakening & the magnetic north is diverging faster for reasons we don’t fully understand.

However, we will soon see the artic bird migrations start, because those bird brains are way more intelligent than you.
(we live directly under their path).

If they start early this year, it means they are also expecting bad – severe cold weather.

How they know that, I have no idea, but NO they don’t wear tin hats!

Sara
Reply to  pigs_in_space
August 21, 2021 4:48 am

You have to feel sorry for griffypoo. He’s never had to sit out a massive storm like Hurricane Andrew or Camille (1969) or the 1900 Galveston storm, or this current candidate.
You’re right about early migration. All the geese I’ve been watching in my area (NE Illinois) began heading in a southerly direction about 10 days ago. Piping plovers and killdeers are also gone south already.
Something’s up.

Leo Smith
Reply to  Sara
August 21, 2021 5:42 am

COP 26 is up, and Nature is Extracting the Urine… it will be wet cold and misreable…and the worst winter for decades

Yooper
Reply to  Sara
August 22, 2021 4:48 am

Have you noticed whether the Hummingbirds have headed south yet?

Sara
Reply to  Yooper
August 22, 2021 5:02 am

I haven’t seen any hummingbirds at all this year, but they may be down at the botanical parks south of me. The people who work in those areas plant hummer-friendly stuff.

It just seems like all the noisy birds have gone elsewhere.

Something is definitely up.

Newminster
Reply to  pigs_in_space
August 21, 2021 4:52 am

I think I can confirm the departure of the swallows, at least from central France. There was a lot of frenzied activity last week and since then nothing.

I would expect a brief appearance from a handful of the Nordic contingent en passant in the next few days.

The next marker will be the storks and then when our local herons are back in the water meadows. The starlings also seem to have started their annual conference season(!) earlier than normal.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Newminster
August 21, 2021 5:41 am

asian? swallows are in Vic and looking to nest at neighbours, who hates em
I have a nice big shed and they wont build here ;-(
think feral cat maybe but my dogs DO remove those pretty quick

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  pigs_in_space
August 21, 2021 4:54 am

(we live directly under their path).

Don’t look up!

Richard Page
Reply to  pigs_in_space
August 21, 2021 5:20 am

I have noticed that birds near me in Lincolnshire have started feeding and flocking together already – it’s a bit early.

Sara
Reply to  Richard Page
August 21, 2021 9:46 am

Considering how many people have posted essentially the same thing, e.g., flocking together already, high activity in one location and then nothing – boom! gone! – and other things I”m seeing around here, it’s plain that the migratory birds are sensitive to things even the weather guessers can’t discern: if they’re flocking and grouping up early, cleaning out available food stocks, they are heading toward away from really bad weather.
We must be aware, and, as Obi-wan said “we must be careful” to NOT ignore what would otherwise alert us to oncoming bad weather.
More ice cream in the freezer!

Scissor
Reply to  pigs_in_space
August 21, 2021 3:46 pm

Maybe they read it in the Nester’s Almanac.

MarkW
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 9:13 am

This from the guy who proclaims that the models are capable of perfectly predicting climate.

Simon
Reply to  MarkW
August 21, 2021 12:54 pm

That’s a (another) lie from “make it up Mark.” Of course you can prove me wrong with a quote from when Griff has said that.

ren
Reply to  Greg
August 21, 2021 4:39 am

The jet stream descends southward from northeastern Canada. It’s attracting a storm to the East Coast.

Sara
Reply to  ren
August 21, 2021 9:48 am

Would you say that it may pull the jet stream and heavy moisture further south than usual?

Just askin’.

ren
Reply to  Sara
August 21, 2021 11:06 am
Sara
Reply to  ren
August 21, 2021 11:58 am

Thanks!!!

rbabcock
Reply to  ren
August 21, 2021 5:14 am

All hurricanes generate thunderstorms, especially on the outer bands where the tornadoes also occur. So far Henri hasn’t really affected the weather over land other than rip currents at the beaches (I live in NC). All the t-storms have been due to a very humid airmass already in place and a stalled weak frontal boundary and we have had a tremendous lightning show for about a week.

The reduced Earth’s magnetic field indicates there will be more lightning and I believe it. Hurricanes are really local events and it is always unfortunate to those that get in their path. I’ve been through quite a few and the best you can do is get out of their way and hope for the best.

MAL
Reply to  rbabcock
August 21, 2021 4:03 pm

Hurricanes are really local events ” not really they are what cause Monsoon here in Arizona, they only need to be near the tip of the Baja to direct the moisture into Arizoina.

Reply to  MAL
August 21, 2021 8:50 pm

No. The monsoon season here is almost all fed by moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. That is why the pattern moves in from the southeast, not the southwest. Also not fed by hurricanes for the most part, although one hitting the east coast of Mexico can intensify it for a few days.

But you are not entirely wrong. Every once in a while (years), one will hit the entrance to the Gulf of Baja just right, and come roaring up between Baja and Mexico proper, or bounces over the peninsula. Those rare ones usually move slowly or completely stall out in the northern part of the Gulf, where all of that wonderful warm water is, feeding flooding rains into southern California, Arizona and New Mexico.

Last one of those was hurricane Rosa in October 2018 (although it was downgraded to a tropical storm by the time it got into the Gulf).

August 21, 2021 12:19 am

TS Irene (a major Cat3 out over water) in August 2011 took out lots of trees and power lines throughout New England.
I lived in Massachusetts then and had no electricity for days. Sucked. Some areas had no electricity for 2 weeks. That was a 45 – 65 mph TS with lots of rain that saturated the ground allowing trees to get uprooted.

NOAA retired the Irene name after that one.

Derg
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
August 21, 2021 2:10 am

We should use all this “free”government money to bury power lines. Burying them would be infrastructure spending I could get behind.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  Derg
August 21, 2021 3:00 am

I have always thought that burying HVAC cables had inherent problems. The two main ones being than the cables had to be capable of dealing with heating caused by soil insulation thereby causing heating and losses. Also for AC there would be an inductive load also causing losses. For long distances these can be significant.

This is the memory of physics classes getting on for 60 years ago so things may have changed . But I do remember not to leave extension cables in a coil as that causes heating in the cable still holds true.

Merrick
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
August 21, 2021 4:20 am

I assume you mean high tension lines, not HVAC lines. In general you are correct, you don’t want to bury those. That’s not what people are talking about. It’s residential lines that need to be buried and that really improves outcomes from storms. I grew up in Michigan and very few lines were buried there/then so Spring/Summer storms took our power out a couple of times a year. When I moved to Northern Virginia where the lines are mostly buried that really changed. My power almost never goes out as a result of weather and the only significant power outage I can even remember this century was the famous derecho event. Was that 2012?

Derg
Reply to  Merrick
August 21, 2021 4:51 am

Thanks Merrick.

Sara
Reply to  Merrick
August 21, 2021 4:54 am

I think that was the July 2011 derecho, from Camille. I live in northeastern Illinois. The power went out suddenly, then came back on, then went out, and there was not one bag of ice available anywhere because all short-order food places had lost power. I watched stuff belonging to my neighbors’ east of me go flying through my yard, but it didn’t even lift the corner of a shingle on my roof. Strange.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Merrick
August 21, 2021 4:59 am

California is talking about burying high-tension lines to prevent forest fires.

Another problem that I can foresee is water getting into the trenches and shorting out the lines. That might be spectacular! The worms probably aren’t going to appreciate high-tension lines in the ground.

Leo Smith
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 21, 2021 5:57 am

Cables for underground use are fully waterproof – at least until a tractor drives over then and pushes a flint through the insulation… Don’t ask me how I know this…

UK practice is to lay three phases more or less seperately, but in the same trench, each one has a colour coded phase outer a wrapping of hugh tensile strength steel wire armour for strength, a couple of layers of very heavy duty insulation, and then an inner copper or aluminium core.

Best practice is to lay in sand to reduce mechanical stress on the cables and then simply back fill.

Cable specifications – and apparently up to 132kV is supported – are here . I am surprised that they don’t specify armoured cable …

rbabcock
Reply to  Merrick
August 21, 2021 5:21 am

I was on my sailboat trying to get into the West River off the Chesapeake Bay when that occurred. I had a halyard stuck in my genoa and was up front trying to get it down and was seeing it coming on radar. Ended up cutting the halyard, got the sail wound up and docked literally a couple of minutes before it hit. It was an amazing sight to see the roll clouds ahead of it and when it hit…

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  rbabcock
August 21, 2021 8:06 am

I had a halyard stuck in my genoa”

That sounds REALLY REALLY painful!

Scissor
Reply to  rbabcock
August 21, 2021 3:50 pm

I hope I never have a halyard stuck in my genoa.

Leo Smith
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
August 21, 2021 5:46 am

In the UK we bury all the (new) local 11Kv feeds. The trunks at 33kV and above are still overhead for reasons you mention – capacitance to ground is really the issue. And the cable gets very expensive at over 11Kv.

Kpar
Reply to  Leo Smith
August 21, 2021 12:07 pm

Like Sara, I live in NE Illinois. Retired Telco cable splicer. Here, all new 11-12kV lines must be buried (along with F2 telephone supply cables), and some towns are converting existing aerial to buried, to reduce the outages caused by downed power lines.

Some years back (a bit over twenty) I read about a pilot program in Detroit where they were using superconducting underground cables to supply a section of downtown (underground is NOT buried, that means manhole to manhole through ductwork). I never heard the outcome.

Ted
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
August 21, 2021 8:43 am

Burying HV power lines has two other significant problems. One is the geology in New England, the bedrock is close to the surface making burial much more expensive. A second is the geography of the population. With overhead lines, connections can be made anywhere, but with buried lines all future connections have to be pre-planned, changes are very difficult. New England doesn’t have the same type of predictable sprawl as other areas.

Reply to  Ben Vorlich
August 21, 2021 12:55 pm

So much of New England got scrapped down to bedrock during LGM that now it’s just a couple feet or so of topsoil over bedrock. Make burying things in New England very expensive.
That’s why New England farmers left in droves in the 19th Century and moved west. When the Midwest and Oregon Trail opened up vast rich fertile soil farmlands to the west, farmers in New England simply abandoned their rocky fields and took their family and moved west to farm the free land grants (after we got rid of those pesky natives of course).

John Tillman
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
August 21, 2021 1:18 pm

My great grandfather joined the exodus from Maine.

Scissor
Reply to  John Tillman
August 21, 2021 4:01 pm

Mine from New Hampshire via Maine.

yirgach
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
August 21, 2021 1:40 pm

I remeber Irene. I was leaving on a flight to the West coast from Hartford Ct (the last one outbtw) and the thing appeared as a gienat white wall to the south. After it hit I did not hear from the better half for 2 weeks as all the roads, bridges, power, etc were down in S. VT. I think the rainfall rate was 6 inches in 4 hours. Not good in a hilly region. Took several years to recover.

Al Gicasi
August 21, 2021 12:33 am

Why do the authorities ignore experts and listen to the media for their info? The latest example was Germany, where the German Met Office warned the local governments for NINE days about the impending heavy rainfall. They were ignored, of course, and many people lost their lives. Not the governments’ fault but climate change. Politicians are idiots the world over.

MAL
Reply to  Al Gicasi
August 21, 2021 4:08 pm

I am confused with this “Not the governments’ fault but climate change” Are you saying it climate change caused the rain fall or the media hyping climate change caused people to ignore the warnings. As far a flood in Germany from what I seen it look like a normal extreme weather event for Germany nothing that has not happen in the past many time over.

AngryScotonFraggleRock
Reply to  MAL
August 22, 2021 2:40 am

I was paraphrasing. The governments (local) blamed CC; however, their lack of action in the face of 9 days of expert warnings led directly to the deaths as they refused to action the emergency plans. Yes, normal weather and not as much water as was released by the dambusters 😱🤣

Bruce Cobb
August 21, 2021 12:37 am

We had record-breaking rain here in NH last month, and some places in the Monadnock region received as much as 18″. It was good in a way, as it obliterated drought conditions which had plagued us for about a year, but there was damage from flooding. Now, with Henri, flooding is likely to again be an issue, particularly again in the Monadnock region. Winds probably won’t be too bad, with perhaps 40 mph winds possible in southern and central NH, but power outages are likely. Which reminds me, I need to give the generator a test-fire, and top up the gas.

griff
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
August 21, 2021 1:37 am

Warmer atmosphere, holds more water, increase in extreme rainfall and flood events. See also: Germany, China, Western Ghats, Japan rainy season 2021.

Derg
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 1:47 am

“Extreme” 🤓

Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 2:34 am

We had this summer a lot of extreme posts from your side, but in contrast to extreme weather, your extreme comments are extreme predictable.

Leo Smith
Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 21, 2021 5:59 am

UK summer has been anything but extreme in fact. Overall its been wet, mainly.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 21, 2021 7:21 am

This post is extremely correct.

DrEd
Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 21, 2021 9:12 am

It’s extremely disappointing that griffy still can’t understand the difference between climate and weather. He’s extremely lacking in the ability to look at the 30 year statistics on weather and observe no trend.

Adam Gallon
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 2:45 am

Germany you say?
Let’s look at peer reviewed literature shall we?
Water | Free Full-Text | Frequency Trend Analysis of Heavy Rainfall Days for Germany | HTML (mdpi.com)

  • For the whole of Germany, the trend variability after 1951 was within the range of previous changes.

Climate believer
Reply to  Adam Gallon
August 21, 2021 9:26 am

Grifter is not big on facts, prefers feelz…

Great link btw.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 4:27 am

“It was good in a way, as it obliterated drought conditions which had plagued us for about a year,”

Missed that part, eh Griff?

MarkW
Reply to  Tom in Florida
August 21, 2021 9:25 am

Didn’t you know that CO2 causes both drought and flood. /sarc

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  MarkW
August 21, 2021 1:07 pm

Didn’t you know that CO2 causes both drought and flood.

Often at the same time!

When we get bushfires here in oz, I always tell concerned relatives back in the uk that it’s ok, the flodding will put them out.

Scissor
Reply to  MarkW
August 21, 2021 4:06 pm

That’s what ManBearPig says.

Duane
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 4:43 am

True, a warmer atmosphere can “carry” (very scientific term ya got there, dude – did they teach you that in grad school?) a higher mass water vapor, but that is only a theoretical maximum value. The actual water vapor content depends upon many other factors, like wind direction and speed, sea surface temperature and currents, solar insolence, mixing models, the laws of thermodynamics, chemistry, physics, etc etc.

You see that is why you warmunistas are such idiots – you presume that a single formula can accurately model a complex systems of systems,

“Everything looks simple when you don’t know what you’re talking about.”

Words to live by.

MarkW
Reply to  Duane
August 21, 2021 9:26 am

BTW, being able to hold more water only matters if the atmosphere cools down and is forced to drop that extra water. As long as the air stays warm, that extra water stays in the air, it doesn’t contribute to rainfall.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 4:45 am

In September 1985, when I lived in Connecticut prior to moving to Florida, Hurricane Gloria hit my area as a Cat 1 storm. At one point Gloria was a Cat 4 storm with winds of 145 mph.
Just another example of Griff’s lack of historical knowledge.

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 5:04 am

Wrong as usual Griff. Sure, the atmosphere may contain a bit more moisture now than say 100 years ago. So? Maybe try educating yourself on the mechanics of rainfall, and on weather before spouting your nonsense about “extreme weather” eh? The more you know….

Richard Page
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 5:25 am

Warmer air does hold more water BUT as long as it stays warm, doesn’t cause precipitation. Generally it’s when the warm air starts to cool down that precipitation occurs. Warm air will NOT cause more rainfall – quite the opposite; cooling air on the other hand…..

Leo Smith
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 5:58 am

So Griff, explain the floods of 1342 that wer far far worse than anything in 2021. And marked the end of the mediavel warm period

Tim Gorman
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 6:11 am

Do some *real* studying. The Global Avg Temp is going up mostly because of higher nighttime temps. Storms and resulting rain are typically fed by evaporation and convection from DAYTIME temps, which are either stagnant or moderating. As usual, you have it exactly backwards. What you call “extreme” events are WEATHER, not climate.

Loren C. Wilson
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 6:32 am

But all the data say that the atmosphere is NOT getting warmer. Your hypothesis has been proven wrong.

DMacKenzie
Reply to  Loren C. Wilson
August 21, 2021 7:19 am

A degree is the last century is what the data says….

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  DMacKenzie
August 21, 2021 8:10 am

That’s only if you average stuff that shouldn’t be averaged.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  DMacKenzie
August 21, 2021 9:08 am

Is the atmosphere getting “warmer” when it is minimum temps going up and not max temps. Or does it just mean the earth isn’t cooling as much at night. Does this mean a “warmer” atmosphere?

Meab
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 9:05 am

“(A) Warmer atmosphere HOLDS more water”. The key word there is “HOLDS”. It rains when warm, moist air encounters cold air from cold fronts or air cooled from orographic lifting. The amount of rain that falls is proportional to the DIFFERENCE in temperature of the warm and cold air masses. The temperature gradient from the tropics to the poles is DECREASING. The arctic is warming faster than the tropics. Less temperature difference helps to offset the increased water content in the very slightly warmed air mass. No climate emergency there, griffter, you’re just mindlessly parroting the dishonest alarmists again.

Scissor
Reply to  Meab
August 21, 2021 4:14 pm

Moreover, it has the potential to hold more water but in reality does not necessarily.

For example, in Colorado, our highest temperatures result from hot dry air coming up from the desert Southwest, and like so many above pointed out, precipitation usually involves intrusion of cold air or adiabatic cooling.

MarkW
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 9:22 am

How much extra moisture does a 0.5C warming allow the air to hold?

Beyond that, it’s a big world, extreme events are always happening somewhere, and always have. Nothing unusual about that. No matter what you are paid to believe.

Last edited 2 months ago by MarkW
Simon
Reply to  MarkW
August 21, 2021 2:34 pm

A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture—about 7 percent more per 1.8°F (1°C) of warming

Scissor
Reply to  Simon
August 21, 2021 4:16 pm

So you’re saying Death Valley air has the greatest concentration of moisture?

You and the Griff only seem to be able to comprehend a single variable at a time.

Simon
Reply to  Scissor
August 21, 2021 5:32 pm

Relative thing I suspect. 7% of very dry is still dry. But that is the truth of the matter.

MAL
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 4:11 pm

I deleted what I had said reading further my point was well covered by others, no need to pile on.

Last edited 2 months ago by MAL
ozspeaksup
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
August 21, 2021 5:45 am

good idea to take early steps
tell neighbours?

fretslider
August 21, 2021 12:38 am

We’ve had some en extreme weather in the UK this summer….

….extremely dull, which makes the pronouncements of the BBC and the Grauniad even more unbelievable

Greg
Reply to  fretslider
August 21, 2021 12:55 am

Same in south of France. It’s been the most extremely un-hot summer I’ve seen in 25 years here. It’s already past its peak.

Last edited 2 months ago by Greg
Pamela Matlack-Klein
Reply to  Greg
August 21, 2021 2:27 am

Un-Summer in Portugal too. Low 20s during the day, teens at night. I hear it is much warmer down south, particularly the Algarve.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  Greg
August 21, 2021 3:13 am

We have friends in Limousin who, until the last week or so, were reporting cold and dull weather, and up until July wet and cold.

Newminster
Reply to  Greg
August 21, 2021 5:13 am

Ditto Burgundy. The late frosts wrought havoc with the grapes (not to mention my plums and pears!) and the number of days with temps above 30° (July & August to date) has been fewer than any of the last four years.

Rain on the other hand ……

THOMAS ENGLERT
Reply to  Greg
August 21, 2021 10:55 am

A neighboring farmer just mowed down a field of corn that hadn’t even tasseled yet (Aug 19). It was planted in June due to cool, rainy Spring weather in Southwestern Indiana.

Climate believer
Reply to  Climate believer
August 21, 2021 12:47 pm

Not finished yet obviously, but August ain’t looking great either..

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfst62/ANOM2m_europe/ANOM2m_pastMTH_europe.html

ANOM2m_pastMTH_europe.png
Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  fretslider
August 21, 2021 1:11 am

Fffffreezing here. Hottest evah from al ja beeba.
Is that true, or did you hear it on the BBC?

griff
Reply to  fretslider
August 21, 2021 1:38 am

Riiight… because if it doesn’t happen at your house it isn’t happening… despite well over a dozen heatwaves, several setting records, in N America and europe this summer and a number of truly exceptional rain events…

fretslider
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 1:45 am

This year is cooler griff as well you know

Nothing outside natural variation has occurred. No matter how hard you try to pretend otherwise.

If it isn’t happening here and other places it isn’t global, it’s local

Last edited 2 months ago by fretslider
Ben Vorlich
Reply to  fretslider
August 21, 2021 3:19 am

It’s got so bad that the BBC/MO have reporting day temperatures in highest teens as average for time of year in daily forecasts.

Had the Daily Express predicted mega heatwave in August happened Griff would have assured you it was catastrophic global emergency warming behind it. I’m surprised he hasn’t mentioned rain on central Greenland’s only weather station for the first time since 1950, aka first time in history, as a counterpoint.

Simon
Reply to  fretslider
August 21, 2021 2:35 pm

July 2021 was the hottest month ever recorded.

Scissor
Reply to  Simon
August 21, 2021 4:25 pm

NOAA’s lying is approaching that of Biden’s.

Simon
Reply to  Scissor
August 21, 2021 5:33 pm

Is that all you got on? NOAA is lying? And are you saying Trump never lied?

pigs_in_space
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 1:52 am

Griff, how come you always manage to repeat the same poop time and time again.
Do yourself a favour, go have a good DUMP today, and come back when you feel better.

Joseph A Vance
Reply to  pigs_in_space
August 21, 2021 11:52 am

If Griff had a totally expunging dump I don’t believe there would be anything left of him.

Scissor
Reply to  Joseph A Vance
August 21, 2021 4:19 pm

Perhaps a halyard stuck in his genoa prevents that.

Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 2:36 am

As usual, you forgot the other sude of the globe, where the winter is extremely cold and recordbreaking.

Adam Gallon
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 2:47 am

Nothing outside of natural variability.
Weather, not climate, can’t you tell the difference?

Richard Page
Reply to  Adam Gallon
August 21, 2021 5:30 am

I think it’s fairly obvious after all of his posts that he can’t tell the difference between climate and weather, or reality and fantasy, or warm and cold, or rainfall and drought. The list goes on…..

Sara
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 4:59 am

Some day, griffypoo, you will learn that there is a DIFFERENCE between WEATHER (short-term) and CLIMATE (long-term). I hope that happens before too long.

Otherwise, I’m concerned that you enjoy setting yourself up as a target for backlash. This is not a good thing, griffypoo. Please get some professional help with your narrow view, mmmkay?

Leo Smith
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 6:01 am

What you mean griff, is if it isn’t happening in the Guardian or al Beeba it isn’t happening at all…

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 8:13 am

Yeah, we had a handful of really hot days here in the PNW. Now it’s August and 60f. So damn hot! NOT!

MarkW
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 9:39 am

There have always been dozens of heat waves every year. Setting records is not unusual either, given how short the time period in which we have been keeping records.

As has been pointed out previously, while those storms were bigger than average, they weren’t exceptional.

Drake
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 10:34 am

So driving from Idaho to southern Utah, I was in rain for 6 hours to just south of Salt Lake City, The weather cleared enough to see the mountains to the east of Mona Utah, and they has snow on the top about 500 to1000 feet. That was on the afternoon of Thursday AUGUST to 19th. So in my area, the new ice age is showing its ugly head.

https://www.ksl.com/article/50226130/snow-in-august-storm-brushes-utahs-higher-elevations-local-rain-records-fall

But as griff will tell us, it is all part of CAGW, everything is; hotter, colder, rain, shine, floods drought, windy, calm etc.

Where I live, while I was out of town, friends with home weather stations recorded up to 4 inches Monday and 3.5 inches Wednesday. These were overnight totals checked in the am.

The nearest Snotel station to our home in Duck Creek Utah, Midway Valley, shows 6.4 inches of rain over the last week. Snotel is a system of precipitation and temperature stations installed for irrigation flow forecasting for farmers in the western US. Really interesting to follow, although they are still basing their % of average on 1981 to 2010, even thought they have all data till 2020. If they used the NEW magic 30 year (3 calendar decades) period the current total would be a much higher % of the annual average, so it is obvious why they have not updated. I still don’t understand why 30 years as 3 decades and not an update EVERY YEAR. Or better yet, compare to the TOTAL OFFICIAL RECORD. Instead they are comparing to some of the wettest years EVAH in the Rocky Mountains including part of the run up to when Lake Mead overflowed at Hoover Dam.

We are still in drought conditions, it takes winter snow to fill reservoirs. The rain has increased stream flow however.

Reply to  Drake
August 21, 2021 11:34 am

We have a very ugly North American winter coming. Stock up on propane and wood now. Natural gas prices will be sky rocketing by January 2022 due to surging demand and low storage stocks of gas. The shortage will be especially acute in the NorthEast US. Electricity Blackouts in the January-February time frame are possible as natural gas-fired generation plants in NE US shut down due to gas delivery curtailments to big users by suppliers to maintain line pressures to homes and businesses.

Last edited 2 months ago by joelobryan
Drake
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
August 21, 2021 2:54 pm

My woodpile if full, and I have 2 500 gallon propane tanks. I have never used more than 300 gallons over the winter, but will top them off this fall since my BU generator is propane.

You never know when you might have an outage that lasts a while. My genset burns a little over a gallon an hour at low usage, which, with propane heat and water heater, I never exceed, even in the winter.

August 21, 2021 12:48 am

My geomagnetic Ap/Kp index Atlantic basin hurricane RI hypothesis says Henri will undergo a Rapid Intensification only if Kp (planetary K index) spikes with a Kp of 4 or above before landfall.

NOAA/SWPC provides near-real time K and A index observations here:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/station-k-and-indices

Jan Alvestad’s Solar Geomagnetic forecast reports:
“ The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on August 21-22 with a chance of unsettled intervals due to weak effects from CH1025 and quiet on August 23. Quiet to minor storm conditions are possible on August 24-25 due to effects from CH1026.”

As such, my hypothesis together with the geomagnetic forecast does NOT indicate Henri will have an RI before its landfall on Sunday afternoon.

Definition of a Rapid Intensification (RI):
Rapid Intensification:
An increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 kt in a 24-h period.

Last edited 2 months ago by joelobryan
Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
August 21, 2021 5:08 am

How about writing an article for WUWT to share the details of your hypothesis?

pigs_in_space
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 21, 2021 1:31 pm

It’s been done!
Corbyn’s been at that non stop for the last decade & I suspect O’Bryan’s been reading too much George Orwell….

rbabcock
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
August 21, 2021 5:30 am

It will be interesting to see what the outcome is. Low pressure systems intensify during geomagnetic storms and is all part of the global electric circuit. The Sun isn’t that active at this point but that could change next week (after the storm hits). People can follow along at http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif

Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
August 21, 2021 11:24 am

Fun fact:

Tonight is a Full Moon (@ 22 August 02:01 EDT).
TS Sandy made landfall on New Jersey/NYC at a Full Moon.
Hurricane Bob made Landfall on 19 August Rhode Island, 5 days before the FullMoon.

It’s the Moon What Dun It!! /sarc, humor (not serious)

But…
in August 1991, Hurricane Bob went from 86 MPH/979 mb (Cat 1) at 6am/18 August to 115 mph/950 mb (Cat 3) 24 hours later on 6am/19 August. Planetary A index (Ap) spiked on 19 August 1991 to 75 (a major geomagnetic storm). Ap didn’t fall below 20 index value until 23 August which by then was extra-tropical with a central pressure above 1000 mb.

The other part of my Atlantic Basin hurricane-Ap RI hypothesis involves the El Nino-Southern Oscillation ONI values, which says the hypothesis only “works when ONI is Neutral/Near neutral) with a ONI between -0.7 to +0.7. The ONI value in August 1991 was +0.6 (going into a full El Nino in October 1991). So ENSO ONI was on the verge of negating the Ap effect, according the hypothesis, which “explains” why Bob didn’t get a full RI episode (a 30 kt increase in 24 hours) on 18-19 August.

The current ENSO SST 3.1 and ONI values are at -0.4. So a RI for Henri could occur tonight or Sunday morning IF Kp goes to 4 or higher before landfall. But that is not predicted in the current Geomagnetic forecast (as of Saturday morning).

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
August 21, 2021 11:29 am

Meant to post this graphic of August 1991 Ap index to show the Ap spike that coincided by Bob’s intensification on 18-19 August 1991.

1991_ApBob.jpg
Tom Abbott
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
August 21, 2021 4:37 pm

TS Sandy had help: A large weather front coming in from the northwest which met up with Sandy and intensified the storm.

Greg
August 21, 2021 12:50 am

This will be welcome media distraction from the debacle in Afghanistan.

Never mind the senile US commander-in-snieff has engineered the biggest foreign policy disaster since Saigon, they will pivot to Trump caused climate change and Hurricane Henri.

Last edited 2 months ago by Greg
Derg
Reply to  Greg
August 21, 2021 2:07 am

Is Henri a hurricane?

Climate believer
Reply to  Derg
August 21, 2021 1:43 pm

As I write it is still a Tropical storm, but only about 10mph off being a category-1.
comment image

Last edited 2 months ago by Climate believer
Adam Gallon
Reply to  Greg
August 21, 2021 2:50 am

Funny, Trump was crowing that he’d started the ball rolling & Biden wouldn’t be able to stop it, just a month ago.
Funny how the RNC is deleting online pages celebrating Trump’s deal with the Taliban.
RNC deletes webpage celebrating Trump’s deal with Taliban | The Independent
Why’s that do you think?

Derg
Reply to  Adam Gallon
August 21, 2021 3:17 am

Joe said the buck stops with him. He owns it and wears it proudly.

I miss the peaceful world of Trump.

Simon
Reply to  Derg
August 21, 2021 2:41 pm

I miss the peaceful world of Trump.”
Where he just denied any responsibility for his mistakes (covid f**k up), but claimed credit for anything good happening in the world. Classic this week where he says he negotiated the deal over the vaccines (which he did), but now it looks like we may need a third booster, he’s saying it’s all a con by the drug companies to make more money. In Trump world if he didn’t do it, it’s bad. What a turd.

Drake
Reply to  Simon
August 21, 2021 3:18 pm

Covid FU like stopping all flights from China while your ilk called his RACIST for doing so? Nope, he was correct, but didn’t go far enough.

Covid FU like NOT stopping all governors from closing schools? Yep. I agree that was a FU although I don’t think a pres has such authority unless he is a democrat.

Covid FU like getting “vaccine” testing and approval at all time record time? Nope. he failed to understand that it didn’t matter if the vaccines worked, they would be said to have worked. 95% effective my a$$. The fact that as many people WITH a vaccine are getting covid as those without and BIG GOVERNMENT AND BIG BUSINESS are all attempting to force EVERYONE to get the vaccine so that the drug companies and shot givers can make as much off of this BS is all about spreading around as much fresh printed dollars as possible. So TRUMP! is right again, AND there are NO STUDIES on the boosters AT ALL, to support a third shot since 2 don’t work, but we do know the drug companies and shot givers WILL MAKE MORE from giving another shot to sheeple such as you.

Covid FU by not directing the Institutes of Health to fully fund studied of face mask efficacy and Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine for prophylactic use and treatment of the China Virus? Yep. That was a HUGH FU that has cost aand is still costing hundreds of thousands of lives in the US and Abroad.

Covid FU of failing to fire Fauchi? Yep, that was a BIG FU.

Covid FU of not directing all intelligence agencies to start separate investigations into the Wuhan lab and the release of the virus? Yep.

Covid FU of keeping the borders closed for Covid infected illegals couldn’t spread it around the country? NOPE. OBiden and his minions are spreading Covid all over Texas and Florida, 40% of apprehended illegals are Covid positive, caught and released to Republican states without a quarantine.

So what is YOUR belief that leads to you saying he FU Covid? Give specifics.

Simon
Reply to  Drake
August 21, 2021 4:20 pm

So what is YOUR belief that leads to you saying he FU Covid? Give specifics.”
I do not have the time to go over every mistake Trump made re covid. It is all documented. Essentially though he mislead the US into believing it was all going to go away. And kept doing it and all through that time people didn’t take the threat seriously. He lied saying the growing numbers were because the US was testing more…. and so it went on. His primary motivation was to provide the optics that there was no problem so it wouldn’t affect his election chances. Well we know how that turned out….

TonyG
Reply to  Simon
August 22, 2021 9:50 am

“I do not have the time to go over every mistake Trump made re covid. It is all documented”
More hypocrisy Simon? Why am I not surprised. As usual, different standards for yourself.

Simon
Reply to  TonyG
August 22, 2021 12:06 pm

I documented enough to make my case. I could have gone on. You on the other hand … well … just make stuff up. Boring.

TonyG
Reply to  Simon
August 22, 2021 2:27 pm

I provided more than enough for anyone to know exactly what I was talking about, but you apparently can’t even remember your own words when you level insults. But that’s about what I expect from a hypocrite like must-have-the-last-word Simon. (Go on live up to it)

Simon
Reply to  Drake
August 22, 2021 12:17 pm

I see your leader got booed at his rally today for saying the vaccines work. He obviously disagrees with you on that one. That must be conflicting for you.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Derg
August 21, 2021 4:43 pm

Trump is getting ready to speak at Cullman, Alabama tonight, in about 20 minutes. There are about 30,000 people in the crowd right now and long lines still coming in. Many in the crowd are holding up “Save America” signs.

If this rally is like Trump’s other recent rallies, then there will probably be a television audience of about 3+ million viewers.

Everytime Trump gives a speech, Fox News rating plunge, because they don’t cover the speech, and Newsmax’s ratings go through the roof because they do cover Trump’s speech. Newmax will have more viewers than all the other cable channels combined for Trumps speech.

Trump will probably have a few things to say about the Biden-caused debacle in Afghanistan.

The Democrats better find themselves someone else to run in 2024. Both Biden and Harris are toast after this Afghanistan fiasco.

Last edited 2 months ago by Tom Abbott
Simon
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 21, 2021 5:41 pm

The Democrats better find themselves someone else to run in 2024. Both Biden and Harris are toast after this Afghanistan fiasco.”
I’m not so sure. As much as I believe he is a good man(according to Lyndsey Graham Biden is “as good a man as God ever created) I think it is time for new blood both Dem and Rep. And….Americans don’t really care that much unless Americans are dying. Sure there will be a curfuffle for a while, but something else will come along.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Simon
August 22, 2021 4:18 pm

I don’t believe Joe Biden is a good man.

I question the intelligence of anyone who calls him a good man, given Biden’s long track record.

Of course, U.S. Senators, like Grahan, usually always say something complementary about the Senators from the other Party, but that doesn’t mean they are sincere in what they say. They are just being polite and collegial.

No, I think Biden is a criminal and believes in a very dangerous, delusional worldview, and he will lead the United States down the Road to Ruin, if given free reign.

Biden, should be removed from office as soon as possible.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Adam Gallon
August 21, 2021 4:30 am

When a lousy cook fails to execute a Chef’s recipe correctly, you don’t blame the Chef.

Sara
Reply to  Tom in Florida
August 21, 2021 5:01 am

Mind if I quote you on that?

Drake
Reply to  Tom in Florida
August 21, 2021 10:41 am

Really well put Tom, TRUMP’S! plan had us out MONTHS ago.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Adam Gallon
August 21, 2021 5:11 am

Biden gave himself an extra 100 days to plan a safe, orderly retreat. He apparently spent his time eating ice cream cones.

Leo Smith
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 21, 2021 6:03 am

From Orange Jesius to pale grey zombie in the space of a single erection.

Did I misspell that?

Drake
Reply to  Leo Smith
August 21, 2021 3:21 pm

You misspelled Jesus. It is spelled SAVIOR.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Adam Gallon
August 21, 2021 7:27 am

I take it you are a supporter of the Biden regime then?

MarkW
Reply to  Adam Gallon
August 21, 2021 9:41 am

Do you have any evidence that Biden followed the plan that Trump laid down?
Or do you just assume that Trump has to be at fault, somehow.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  MarkW
August 21, 2021 12:30 pm

Biden threw Trump’s foreign policy overboard the day he took office – except this one he couldn’t?

Simon
Reply to  Carlo, Monte
August 21, 2021 2:43 pm

So a right wing paper says it’s not Trumps fault. Gee how did that happen?

Drake
Reply to  Simon
August 21, 2021 3:30 pm

If they had followed TRUMP’S! plan they would have been out months ago and all Americans would have be out before the collapse.

You will not see any of this on any MSM channels or newspapers. They only print what OBiden and heir Democrat “leakers” tell them to. I mean, they reported what “High level current and former government officials” told them for 2 years about Russia, Russia, Russia, which was ALL proven to be Fake News, but you still cling to your “trust” in those sources??

What an A$$hat.

But I am repeating myself.

Bob boder
Reply to  Simon
August 21, 2021 4:24 pm

Who’s the president, who made the decisions, Biden says he did.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Simon
August 21, 2021 4:53 pm

One thing about it, we are going to know all the details of this Afghanistan fiasco before it’s all over. We’ll know what Trump did and we’ll know what Biden did.

The one thing about Trump’s plan was he was insistent that the Taliban not be able to take over Afghanistan.

And the status of Trump’s deal with the Taliban is in doubt. The Taliban broke the agreement and k!lled some people they were not supposed to k!ll, and the last I heard, Trump had stopped the negotiations because of this breach.

And let me go on record as being against any plan from Trump or Biden that results in a total withdrawal from Afghanistan.

But, like I said, we’ll get all the details eventually. Members of both parties in Congress want this investigation.

I’m pretty sure Biden is going to be the one that looks the worst.

Btw, Simon, did you see where the FBI says they can find no conspiracy to overthrow the U.S. government on Jan. 6, and they can find no Trump involvement?

It was just a bunch of people who got carried away with the emotion of the day.

Last edited 2 months ago by Tom Abbott
Simon
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 21, 2021 5:49 pm

The one thing about Trump’s plan was he was insistent that the Taliban not be able to take over Afghanistan.”
Tom where did you get that from? Trumps plan/planning only included the Taliban. He didn’t even invite the Afghan government to the table – only the Taliban. That’s why he made concessions (some say too many) to the Taliban and not the Afghan people. Hell he wanted to invite them to Camp David till he was advised not to.

“Btw, Simon, did you see where the FBI says they can find no conspiracy to overthrow the U.S. government on Jan. 6, and they can find no Trump involvement?”
Yep I did, but that is no surprise. I never thought he was actually on the phone to the looneys. He just used them to promote his fake talk of a “stolen election.” That’s all they needed. He knew a big chunk of his audience were not discerning enough to work out the truth. And as we know…. off they went with their pitchforks.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Simon
August 22, 2021 4:22 pm

“Tom where did you get that from?”

I get that from statements made by Trump administration officials.

They say Trump’s deal was based on the Taliban meeting certain goals and the deal would be called off if those goals were not met.

I don’t know all the details of the deal, we’ll just have to wait for more information.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Simon
August 22, 2021 4:27 pm

Well, there were tens of thousands of people surrounding the Capitol Building and doing so peacefully, and only a few hundred entered the building.

There is no evidence that Trump encouraged anything like breaching the Capitol Building. Instead, in his speech, he told them to do so peacefully.

Trump is not the demon you think he is.

Bob boder
Reply to  Tim Gorman
August 21, 2021 4:23 pm

Tim

What bunch of crap.

Simon
Reply to  Bob boder
August 21, 2021 5:52 pm

Trump said at his last rally that Biden couldn’t back out of the Afghan evacuation. In fact he was crowing about it. I can get the quote if you need it.

Reply to  Adam Gallon
August 21, 2021 11:27 am

Unlike Dementia Joe Biden, during Trump’s 4 years in office, the record is clear… Trump listened to his advisors on National Security policy. Biden has a 50 years long track record of ignoring National Security policy advice from experts and the Generals.
Trump would have changed course last Spring if he had remained President on advice from his advisors. Biden ignored them.

yirgach
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
August 21, 2021 1:52 pm

Biden is a puppet of the ChiComms. The CCP is negotiating a massive multi-trillion $ lithium/rare earth deal with the Taliban/Pakistan/Dark State. He was told to get the troops out, so he did as he was told. See Barrons Link.

Simon
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
August 22, 2021 12:02 pm

Trump listened to his advisors on National Security policy.”
That will be why they all left him then.


Joseph A Vance
Reply to  Adam Gallon
August 21, 2021 11:56 am

Well I think anyone who believes news from the Independent or any other mainstream media source is worthy needs help in the very worst way.

Loydo
August 21, 2021 12:58 am

This storm is something my dad would talk to me about for years when I was young, the shortcut storm that hit the northeast moving west of north…”

Difference is these days that stretch of water is 1.5C warmer than it used to be.

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Loydo
August 21, 2021 1:11 am

No, they aren’t. SSTs vary for lots of reasons. Sorry to bust your globaloney warming bubble.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Loydo
August 21, 2021 1:13 am

Any evidence for that post? Or are you lying, as usual?

Anthony Banton
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
August 21, 2021 2:02 am

comment image

Loydo
Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 21, 2021 4:09 am

My mistake, 3C warmer.

Climate believer
Reply to  Loydo
August 21, 2021 1:37 pm

Calm down with your “these days” as if it’s permanent, only in the last few days has there been a 2°C anomaly.

Reynolds Daily SSTA.png
fretslider
Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 21, 2021 4:52 am

NOAA?

As if you can take them seriously.

NOAA is a data masseur/masseuse.

I don’t think private citizen observers of NOAA’s Cooperative Observer Program who gave their time and efforts every day for years really appreciate that their hard work is tossed into a climate data soup then seasoned to create a new reality that is different from the actual observations they made. 

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/06/06/noaas-national-climatic-data-center-caught-cooling-the-past-modern-processed-records-dont-match-paper-records/

UEA is not only famous for its climate narrative, it is renowned for its creative writing courses, too.

Did you ever go there?

Last edited 2 months ago by fretslider
Leo Smith
Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 21, 2021 6:05 am

Golly, its warmer thn ‘average’ in summer! Whoda thunk it?

Anthony Banton
Reply to  Leo Smith
August 21, 2021 10:10 am

That is an anomaly relative to the years 1985-1993
And Hurricanes happen “in summer”.

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/methodology/methodology.php#clim

But hey, if you expect a hurricane in winter you can find the SST deltaT for that on NOAA’s webpage as well.

Last edited 2 months ago by Anthony Banton
rbabcock
Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 21, 2021 1:34 pm

comment image

Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
August 21, 2021 3:44 pm

Here’s the thing, even if the data is correct (and I’m always skeptical when they “massage” it), it still wouldn’t prove anthropogenic causation.

Derg
Reply to  Loydo
August 21, 2021 1:49 am

(SNIPPED off topic personal attack) SUNMOD

Last edited 2 months ago by Sunsettommy
Sara
Reply to  Loydo
August 21, 2021 5:09 am

Loydo, there have been FAR worse storms long before this one. It’s unfortunate that you don’t bother to do a little real history research before you post things.

MarkW
Reply to  Sara
August 21, 2021 9:45 am

Knowledge gets in the way of proselytizing.

MarkW
Reply to  Loydo
August 21, 2021 9:43 am

The claim is that the oceans in general have warmed by only 0.03C. That 1.5C is due to the vagaries of various ocean currents. It’s warmer than average, but nothing unusual, and like the other instances, won’t last long.

rbabcock
Reply to  Loydo
August 21, 2021 1:32 pm

Ocean temps may be slightly warmer than normal, but the buoys from Wallops Island north to Long Island show the water temps are 76F-77F which aren’t that warm for tropical development.. you need 80F+. Henri is nature’s way of lowering these anyway. After it runs its course recheck the water temps and they will be cooler than normal due to the evaporative cooling and churning of the water.

The Gulf Stream interacts with the Labrador current starting off Cape Hatteras and you see swirls of warmer and cooler water all the way to the shores of New England. But then you wouldn’t know that because you would never take the time to look into it. A warm swirl from the Gulf Stream can bring tropical fish all the way to the coast of Maine and Nova Scotia at times during the fall.

Drake
Reply to  Loydo
August 21, 2021 3:38 pm

Used to be WHEN? Yesterday? Last week?

NO than average you a$$hat. THE ANOMALY IS NOT PEMANENT.

It is cooler, then warmer than the same as average than….THAT IS HOW YOU GET AN AVERAGE!

Wow, they (Loydo, griff, Simon, etc.) are getting scarier and scarier. OR stupider and stupider. OR they are no longer only acolytes, but now priests of their religion.

Ozonebust
August 21, 2021 1:13 am

Lets hope it veers north and eastward.

Last edited 2 months ago by Ozonebust
rbabcock
Reply to  Ozonebust
August 21, 2021 4:08 pm

Hurricanes are definitely no fun. I agree.

bwegher
August 21, 2021 1:20 am

Tracking like 1938
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_New_England_hurricane
I predict the NHC will exagerate the wind speeds by 20 knots.

Drake
Reply to  bwegher
August 21, 2021 10:52 am

Wow, and the storm track exactly matches Joe’s projected track for Henri??

So as griff would say, and does below, this storm is “unprecedented”!!!!!

un•prec•e•dent•ed ŭn-prĕs′ĭ-dĕn″tĭd

  • adj.Having no previous example.Having no precedent or example; unexampled.adj.Having no precedent or example; not preceded by a like case; not having the authority of prior example; novel; new; unexampled.

Yep to a loony leftist, if it didn’t happen in their lifetime, or they have never heard of it before, it didn’t happen, so it is “unprecedented”.

griff
August 21, 2021 1:34 am

And there you have it: another storm hitting further north up the coat with high intensity.

I think you people claiming it is just weather should go buy beach front property and put your money where your mouth is.

Redge
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 1:49 am

Do you mean like Obama?

Derg
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 1:49 am

Please sell me your beachfront.

pigs_in_space
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 1:56 am

There you have WHAT exactly griff.

Poopers in your pampers because hurricane seasons always have and always will happen, when you were in babies nappies back in 1987….

“The great storm of 1987 was a violent extratropical cyclone that occurred on the night of 15-16 October, with hurricane-force winds causing casualties in the United Kingdom, France, and the Channel Islands as a severe depression in the Bay of Biscay moved northeast.”

The greatstorm of 1703 was a destructive extratropical cyclone that struck central and southern England on 26 November 1703.

High winds caused 2,000 chimney stacks to collapse in London and damaged the New Forest, which lost 4,000 oaks.
Ships were blown hundreds of miles off-course, and over 1,000 seamen died on the Goodwin Sands alone.

Since 1987, it appears the UK has not had another event quite like the above.

fretslider
Reply to  pigs_in_space
August 21, 2021 2:06 am

I remember’87 well I was on night shift

Everyone “cashed in” on their insurance for roof repairs…

Dave Andrews
Reply to  pigs_in_space
August 21, 2021 7:23 am

I was living in East Finchley in London when the 1987 storm hit. Many of the old magnificent trees on East End Road were felled.. I thought the bedroom windows were going to be blown in. My partner, now wife, slept through it all!

fretslider
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 2:01 am

Hurricanes have hit Canada before

Did you not know that?

Editor
Reply to  fretslider
August 21, 2021 9:02 am
  • September 7, 1953 – Hurricane Carol made landfall near Saint John, New Brunswick, Canada, with considerable wind losses throughout the region. This hurricane was eclipsed by the extreme damage of another Carol the very next year.

LINK

MarkW
Reply to  fretslider
August 21, 2021 9:48 am

griff’s brain is incapable of processing any facts that don’t support his religious convictions.

Adam Gallon
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 2:51 am

What was the “Long Island Express”?

Sara
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 5:29 am

Griffypoo, sometimes you worry me.

MY HOUSE SITS ON AN ANCIENT DUNE WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. Let that sink in, okay?

In fact, this ancient dune is part and parcel of the ANCIENT SHORES of the massive lake that used to be one HUGE water body, and is now divided into the Great Lakes. The hills around here are ridiculously high, and consist of compacted sand under deep layers of dense dirt created by centuries – nay, MILLENIA – of grasses and weeds growing and decaying into dirt (loam, fella) and the closest I can get to flat land is 50 miles west of me. The valleys that separate the hills are the troughs from wave action of that very ancient lake. Dig down far enough, and you[‘ll find clamshells, as happened when I lived in Chicago just off Wilson Ave, 2 miles west of the current shore of Lake Michigan, and street repairs had to be made. Dozens of fossilized clam shells were thrown up, some the size of dinner plates.

Since you clearly have NO idea how weather (short-term stuff) is affected by topography, you might want to do a little research on that before you post something. Storms are WEATHER, griffy-poo. They are NOT climate, never have been. WEATHER is short term events, from hurricanes and derechos and tornadoes and flooding rains, to blizzards and blizzard thunderstorms and microclimate shadows where snow stays on the ground because the temperature in that shadow is still below freezing. That is WEATHER, griffypoo, not signs of Chaos and Climate Change. We’ve had snowstorms in April where I live for DECADES, you sap. It’s W-E-A-T-H-E-R. Yes, I do have photos.

If it snows in July, I’ll be concerned, get photos, and send them to the editors here.

And if you really understood anything at all about this, you’d KNOW that weather is short term, and CLIMATE is LONG TERM. And one hurricane or violent storm is NOT CLIMATE. Please read up on the Tornado Swarm of 1974, in the USA’s Midwest. Huge trail of damage. It was what prompted the National Weather Service to set up a network of Doppler radar stations, so as to give people a warning to get to shelter. But it was WEATHER, severe weather, and NOT climate change. Try to learn the difference, willya?

I’m really worried about you, griffypoo. Please consider getting some help with your obsessive need to insist that weather cycles are climate change, when they aren’t, because when the weather cycle of cold to warm stops being “to warm” and becomes long-term cold, with warm periods too short to grow anything but grass, then you are in real trouble. McDonald’s may not be able to supply you at the drive-up window any more.

Also, I have some news for you: if ANYTHING changes in the climate at all, it will be to a new ice age. And no, you won’t outlive it. But you will get plenty hungry, because crops don’t grow in the cold frozen earth, and chicken eggs tend to freeze solid if things are too cold. I had to collect eggs from the henhouse when I was 8, to earn my allowance (only one of my chores), and if it was too cold and there wasn’t enough bedding to keep the eggs warm while the hens were feeding, they froze solid. All you could do with them was make scrambled eggs or give them to the dogs, or just toss them.

Like I said, get some help and try to see the opposing view in a new light instead of being a butthead.

Oh, and have a nice weekend. 🙂

Last edited 2 months ago by Sara
fretslider
Reply to  Sara
August 21, 2021 6:06 am

If it predates 1990 you’re wasting your time where griff is concerned.

Sara
Reply to  fretslider
August 21, 2021 8:14 am

I know, but it helps to “address” him when making a valid point. He’s so silly and naive, poor fella. Whatever will he do when the whiskey runs out?

Leo Smith
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 6:06 am

Can’t afford it. All the best places have gone to politicans, Hollywood stars and climate activists. Do you think they know something you don’t?

Bob boder
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 7:59 am

Griff

And the 2 biggest natural disasters in history were in the last 20 years. Must be CO2 right? Except they were tsunamis. There is no evidence that weather disasters are worse now then in the past. You have been shown this time and time again, even the IPCC doesn’t show it and they are 100% political hacks.

Sara
Reply to  Bob boder
August 21, 2021 8:46 am

Bob, you forgot to include the FACT (which you must provide to griffypoo) that both of those tsunamis were caused by major earthquakes, not by bad weather.

Editor
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 9:01 am

You ignore tropical storm and Hurricane history of the region,

List of New England hurricanes

There are a few dozen direct impacts and many smaller impacts listed.

Try doing research next time.

MarkW
Reply to  griff
August 21, 2021 9:46 am

Did you even read the story? In the first paragraph he mentions a similar storm 30 years ago.
There is nothing unusual about such storms.

PS: If I had the kind of money Democrat politicians do, I would buy beach front property.

Last edited 2 months ago by MarkW
commieBob
August 21, 2021 1:58 am

And understand who it is who does not want that out until it can be used for their own purpose.

The problem is that the folks who are supposed to warn us about hurricanes will be asked to explain why they didn’t warn us of this one. What are they going to say? “We knew it was going to be bad but we were told to keep our mouths shut.” Hardly likely. Similarly, they don’t want to be in the position of trying to plead incompetence.

I am reminded of Hurricane Hazel which hit Toronto Canada, which is something that never happens.

In her book Hurricane Hazel, Canadian journalist Betty Kennedy argued that in Canada, the impressions that Hazel was “the best-kept secret in town” and that it was a “fully documented meteorological event that should have taken nobody by surprise” both “paradoxically […] contain a great deal of truth”.

link

When Hazel hit Toronto, it really was a surprise. I don’t think any particular recriminations were aimed at the weather bureau. Joe’s analysis makes me think nobody should be able to plead that Henri is/was/will be a surprise. If it’s really bad and warnings aren’t issued, we should expect problems for those who don’t issue those proper warnings.

pigs_in_space
Reply to  commieBob
August 21, 2021 2:04 am

You mean like the infamous Michael Fish of the UK MO.
The biggest UK weather forecasting FAIL of all time….

Disputin
Reply to  pigs_in_space
August 21, 2021 4:55 am

If I recall rightly, Michael Fish, just before that clip started, was answering a caller who was due to go to the Caribbean who had asked if a hurricane was due there, just before switching to the forecast for UK. It was, after all, the BBC!

Anthony Banton
Reply to  Disputin
August 21, 2021 5:26 am

I think you are correct.

Anthony Banton
Reply to  pigs_in_space
August 21, 2021 5:25 am

That was 24 years ago and NWP has come a very long way since then …. also, and very importantly for this – so has satellite observation, as it formed late under a “jet streak” as it approached the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/case-studies/great-storm

“A hurricane or not?TV weather presenter Michael Fish will long be remembered for telling viewers there would be no hurricane on the evening before the storm struck. He was unlucky, however, as he was talking about a different storm system over the western part of the North Atlantic Ocean that day. This storm, he said, would not reach the British Isles – and it didn’t. It was the rapidly deepening depression from the Bay of Biscay which struck. This storm wasn’t officially a hurricane as it did not originate in the tropics – but it was certainly exceptional. In the Beaufort scale of wind force, Hurricane Force (Force 12) is defined as a wind of 64 knots or more, sustained over a period of at least 10 minutes. Gusts, which are comparatively short-lived (but cause a lot of destruction) are not taken into account. By this definition, Hurricane Force winds occurred locally but were not widespread.

I was on duty as a Met Officer an RAF station during that period

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 21, 2021 7:12 am

Hmmm.. a met officer thinks that 1987 was 24 years ago.. I guess that’s within the profession’s acceptable margin of error.

Anthony Banton
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
August 21, 2021 9:58 am

How I larfed
A typo as a strawman to denigrate science
Is that all you’ve got?

pigs_in_space
Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 21, 2021 1:46 pm

Don’t need to show up you lack of cred Banton!

You can’t even answer the question as to why the @!#)!$$! Met office with all that money, managed to predict a BBQ summer, which was the exact OPPOSITE of what happened, and further to that, over a period of 6 yrs they also managed to predict the exact opposite of the weather that actually occured.

They and their cronies at environment couldn’t even manage the flooding of the somerset levels, because they had been so conned into the climate warming fiasco, they sold all the machinery that was supposed to stop the flooding in the first place.

With a mouth as big as yours, how can you have the gall to come on here and spout anything at all.

You need to see a shrink, because your observation of reality seems to come from looking out of the window of an office some place close to the M4, nothing to do with what actually matters to people who care about their cattle or their livelihoods!

very old white guy
August 21, 2021 2:58 am

Another storm. Anyone who has lived in coastal area should be prepared for damaging storms as they do occur.

bluecat57
Reply to  very old white guy
August 21, 2021 5:28 am

Or move somewhere safer to live. What part if “sea level” don’t they understand?

Sara
August 21, 2021 4:38 am

Just askin: is this the reason I’m seeing the “red sky at morning, sailor take warning” come up at 5:30AM/sunrise? Does it explain the rapid rise in humidity in my area? (35 mi north of Chicago, 8 miles west of Lake Michigan).

Lots of red sky this morning – LOTS of it, and flat gray to the west of me. I won’t go shopping until Monday, so I’d better add ice cream to my list, eh?

I’m only asking about this because I may live in the Midwest, west of Lake Michi Gamu, but it does not mean we don’t get the side effects of the hurricanes, e.g., heavy rains, some flooding from the rivers overflowing (they’re pretty low right now) and heavy chop on the Great Lakes overall. Is shipping on Lake Superior going to be affected by this, for example?

Keep it coming, Joe Bastardi.

ren
Reply to  Sara
August 21, 2021 4:50 am

No, a cold front with thunderstorms is approaching you.
https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap

Sara
Reply to  ren
August 21, 2021 8:19 am

Thanks, ren! I’ve had just about enough of the Midwest’s idea of tropical weather – heat, humidity, A/C is useless! – to last a lifetime. I am looking forward to fall!

Ouluman
August 21, 2021 4:47 am

Been following Joe for long time and he right most of the time and at least explains events way in advance to the hysterical media. His reasoned arguments by analysing MJO and other natural cycles and comparing historic actual weather patterns help him beat the models hands down.

Jarrett C Rhoades
Reply to  Ouluman
August 21, 2021 5:25 am

Wait, Real World observation beats GI-GO modelling?

Has anyone informed Mickey Mann and the IPCC?

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Ouluman
August 21, 2021 4:28 pm

I have a great deal of respect for Joe, but this is a little too Chicken Little for me. If I’m wrong, I’ll apologize later.

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  D. J. Hawkins
August 25, 2021 5:44 pm

Well, looks like I can save that apology for a rain(ier) day.

rah
August 21, 2021 5:23 am

Get your hip boots or waders out of the closet and be prepared to climb up on the roof because Joe just forecast that there is likely to be a tremendous storm surge of climate change excrement.

Anything that happens along the I-95 corridor is always worse than if it happened anywhere else and that goes double when it happens in the NYC area where the “News” Networks are headquartered.

Good distraction from dementia Joe and his abandonment of US citizens to the tender mercies of a bunch of illiterate donkey bonking Islamic extremists.
Oh and BTW! Those events in Afghanistan happened in part because of Climate Change according to CBS CBS News on Twitter: “How climate change helped strengthen the Taliban https://t.co/SB82Yx67QM” / Twitter

bluecat57
August 21, 2021 5:25 am

This is Mother Nature’s way of flushing the stopped up toilet that the Democrats have made in that area.

ozspeaksup
August 21, 2021 5:35 am

so I gather its a doozy of a storm, in an area thats not usually hit?

Gunga Din
Reply to  ozspeaksup
August 21, 2021 6:35 am

Sounds like it will be a doozy but the area has been hit before.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_England_hurricanes
After the fact, the press and the usual suspects will do their best to give the impression that this is, somehow, a new thing and it hit because of the “existential” threat of using fossil fuel. (aka “Climate Change”!)

Wade
August 21, 2021 5:51 am

Do not forget 1954 Hurricane Carol and Hurricane Edna. Both category 3’s at landfall in New England and within 100 miles of each other at landfall. And the water mixing of a hurricane’s wake did no good because Edna made landfall about 2 weeks after Carol.

If Carol or Edna happened today, what would the media do?

Also 1954 was Hazel, the only recorded category 4 hurricane to make landfall in North Carolina.

Strange that events that have happened before and with CO2 much lower are suddenly caused by CO2 this time.

Stu
Reply to  Wade
August 21, 2021 8:11 am

I lived thru both of those as a youngster in southeast Virginia. I believe it was Hazel that completely wiped out my friend’s summer cottage on the Chesapeake Bay to the extent that even the pilings were completely gone.

Kevin
August 21, 2021 6:39 am

This means weeks of high intensity climate change chattering from the usual suspects.

Sara
Reply to  Kevin
August 21, 2021 9:54 am

Oh, just bring it, Kevin!!! It will keep us all busy looking for stuff to disprove their pet theories.

John Garrett
August 21, 2021 6:51 am

National Hurricane Center
Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/210853.shtml?

500 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

An earlier GMI satellite microwave image continued to indicate that
Henri's low-level center was still located near the northwestern 
edge of the convective canopy.  However, more recent geostationary 
satellite imagery shows that the convection is beginning to wrap 
around the northeastern and eastern portions of the circulation 
suggesting that the anticipated decrease in shear is occuring, and 
that Henri may be on the verge of strengthening.  The latest 
subjective satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remained 
unchanged so the initial intensity remains 60 kt, in agreement with 
those estimates and the earlier aircraft data.  The next 
reconnaissance aircraft mission should be in the storm around 
1200 UTC this morning.

Henri is moving north-northeastward or 015/10 kt. A mid- to
upper-level low and associated trough over the Appalachians and
Ohio Valley should steer Henri north-northeastward at a faster
forward speed today.  As Henri moves around the eastern portion of
the upper-low, the storm is forecast to turn north-northwestward
tonight.  This motion will bring the center of Henri near or over
portions of Long Island and Southern New England on Sunday and into
the northeastern United States Sunday night.  After that time, the
cyclone should turn east-northeastward as it becomes caught in the
mid-latitude westerlies.  The latest dynamical model envelope
continues to narrow for the first 24 to 36 hours of the forecast
period and only small adjustments were needed to that portion of
the track.  After that time, the guidance has trended to taking
Henri farther inland over the Northeastern United States, and the
NHC forecast as been modified accordingly.

Decreasing shear, upper-level divergence associated with the trough
to Henri's west, and warm SSTs should allow the cyclone to
strengthen during the next 12-18 hours.  Although not explicitly
shown in the intensity forecast, Henri could still peak around 75 kt
later today or this evening.  After that time, cooler waters are
likely to cause a gradual reduction in intensity, however, Henri is
forecast to be at or near hurricane strength at landfall. Once the
center moves inland over the Northeast United States, a faster rate
of filling is anticipated.  The system is forecast to become
post-tropical in about 60 hours, and it will likely dissipate around
day 4, if not a little sooner.  The updated intensity forecast is
near the upper-end of the intensity guidance during 
Captain climate
August 21, 2021 7:09 am

Yawn. It’s a tropical storm. Long Island will take the brunt, the CT shore will see some nice TV pictures of waves, and upstate New York and Vermont will get inundated, hopefully nothing like Irene.

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Captain climate
August 21, 2021 7:17 am

Yep, the estimated track keeps nudging further west. New Hampshire will get the leftovers – I’m guessing in the 2-3″ range, although the southwest part of the state could certainly get more.

rah
August 21, 2021 8:01 am

Hey! Maybe the west side highway will actually be underwater for a short time and then the climatistas can claim their messiah was correct!

Olen
August 21, 2021 8:38 am

I liked it better when they named the Hurricanes after women. Then the feminists complained. Not one woman complained about a hurricane being named after them.

Joe Bastardi is right the MSM will be hawking it as proof of climate change and we may even see Al Gore advertising carbon credits. All after the fact.

Jamaica
August 21, 2021 8:59 am

I have neve r been near a coast when one of these storms comes ashore, so,I will head to Silver Point on Long Beach island to see what’s what.

Editor
Reply to  Jamaica
August 21, 2021 9:48 pm

The only Long Beach Island I know is a barrier Island off New Jersey.

ren
August 21, 2021 9:00 am

A cold front from the west and a storm along the east coast looks like a typical fall storm.

August 21, 2021 9:21 am

On Wednesday at the start of our overnight flight to London from Dallas, Texas the captain announced that he was taking the overland route across the US as this would give us a smoother journey. At the time I had no idea why he made this decision. I am now using my quarantine time to catch up with this storm’s development..

Bruce Cobb
August 21, 2021 9:58 am

The 1938 New England Hurricane, now that was a storm to be reckoned with (no relation to Amanda B.). They just don’t make ’em like that anymore. Must be “climate change”.

Editor
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
August 21, 2021 12:17 pm

We had some good storms then. A flood in 1936 wiped out most of the mill dams here in Sutton Mills, a calamity the village has never really recovered from. While the river is across the street from me, my house was built in 1860, so I may be safe should there be a repeat. Not so sure about the garage.

Other storms – see my https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/21/weather-before-and-after-the-hurricane-of-1938/

Henri is no Hurricane of ’38!

DonM
August 21, 2021 10:20 am

They just shouldn’t let them build there … that the problem.

Chumlee
August 21, 2021 11:16 am

Drown libs drown.

JulianusRex
August 21, 2021 11:19 am

I remember a hurricane that hit Brooklyn in 1944, and knocked down a lot of trees. What’s so special about this one? Ignore the hype.

Editor
August 21, 2021 11:49 am

So, just what is Joe B predicting?

Consequently, my call on intensity is down to 960 mb or lower at its peak late tomorrow afternoon or night, and a hit at 980 mb or lower.

That may well be a better way to measure intensity, especially storms with a fast forward motion or are in an eyewall replacement cycle.

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/fall10/atmo336/lectures/sec2/hurricanes.html has a graph that converts central air pressure to wind speed (in km/h). 980 mb at landfall is some 135 km/h, or 81 mph. Oh, hey – that’s Cat 1! Ranges 74-95 mph 64-82 kt 119-153 km/h.

Color me unimpressed.

Out at sea, 960 mb is 180 km/h, 120 mph, that’s better (Cat 3), albeit over water (big waves, not big destruction). Hmm, should check my conversion – I was mentally converting 1 km to 0.6 mile. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php says Cat 3 is 111-129 mph, 96-112 kt, 178-208 km/h and that 180 km/h is very low end.

Editor
Reply to  Ric Werme
August 21, 2021 9:45 pm

And what does the NHC have to say in its 2300 update?

However, the hurricane has not yet strengthened

significantly, as the maximum winds remain about 65 kt in the

southeastern eyewall and the central pressure is near 987 mb.

The map shows it’s east of northern VA, where Joe said it was going to intensify to 960 mb.

Henri is almost out of time to strengthen, as the center will be

moving north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream during the next

several hours. The intensity forecast will call for modest

strengthening during the first 12 h based on the premise that

strengthening will occur before Henri reaches the cooler waters.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 38.6N 71.0W  65 KT 75 MPH
 12H 22/1200Z 40.3N 71.2W  70 KT 80 MPH
 24H 23/0000Z 41.9N 71.8W  55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
 36H 23/1200Z 43.1N 71.7W  30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
 48H 24/0000Z 43.9N 70.5W  25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

Don’t be surprised if it’s not a hurricane at landfall.

Hugh Jassel
August 21, 2021 12:40 pm

Any chance this storm will drown Joe Talibiden in his Delaware basement?

Rich Davis
August 21, 2021 12:42 pm

I am exactly down the middle of the projected track for this storm passing through north central Connecticut tomorrow.

Other than stocking up on water, batteries, and non-perishable food, this thoroughly precedented weather event is out of my hands.

It is what it is. And what it is not is anything to do with climate change, unless it’s a sign of a return to the cooler, stormier times we had in the 50s through the 70s.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Rich Davis
August 22, 2021 2:24 pm

Happily, a non-event for me. Not even close to the strongest storm of the season.

JBnID
August 21, 2021 1:12 pm

Speak for yourself snowflakes. I’ve never been afraid of the weather, but thanks for the heads-up.