By Joe Bastardi |August 20th, 2021
The situation with Henri is growing dire. I strongly believe this will be stronger than the National Hurricane Center has at landfall. Their track has come to ours and ours is likely going to shift to the west this afternoon.
Note the SSTs to the east of the Virginia Capes:
This is as warm as the Gulf Loop Current. The outflow pattern tomorrow is as textbook-perfect as it can get, with two jets ventilating it.
Keep in mind unlike other storms in this region, Henri is coming into this area to intensify. Most storms that hit New England are coming out ot their area of highest intensity. Consequently, my call on intensity is down to 960 mb or lower at its peak late tomorrow afternoon or night, and a hit at 980 mb or lower. The water is quite warm relative average, even to the coast:
Low-level inflow and great upper-level support until landfall mean the weakening may be slower and only relative to how strong it gets in the first place.
Note the SSTs when Bob hit in 1991:
It was coming out of its area of maximum outflow support., not into it, and SSTs were much cooler. This current situation is the opposite:
As per our morning discussion, this will join the who’s who of the greatest storms in this area and for some will become the new benchmark. A shift to the west in my track (and I don’t like to do that since we have been stronger and farther to the west all along), is becoming more likely.
This storm is something my dad would talk to me about for years when I was young, the shortcut storm that hit the northeast moving west of north, There is nothing that says this cannot happen. After all Fran, in 1996, was moving west of north all the way to western PA, this is just displaced east. But like the Texas freeze where I was doing cartwheels trying to get the media to pick up the week before, the bread and circus of the media and politics is ignoring what may be a dominating story by Monday morning. And what’s more, the weather weaponizers will be out in full force, when the very person who exposes this stuff has been talking about this for years for one, in our preseason forecast for 2 and all this week for 3. It’s almost like they are climate predators, they wait until after, then pounce on the unsuspecting which is almost everyone since no one is paying attention until it’s obvious. Then they turn around and come after the people who were watching it, yelling they deny climate when climate and past events is what they use to set this up from afar!
The best one can do if the mission is like the Watchman in the bible is to try to show to all who will look and listen. And understand who it is who does not want that out until it can be used for their own purpose.
Henry is weather, not climate, but the time to prepare is NOW.
Author
is a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting. He is the author of “The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore — and Others” which you can purchase at the CFACT bookstore. His new book The Weaponization of Weather in the Phony Climate war can be found here. phonyclimatewar.com
I’m confused.
Mario, look at the Weatherbell hurricane predictions. anything that happens in those high probability zones can ramp up extremely fast. This is one of those close-in developments that he has been warning of.
Is super spreader Henri wearing a mask? Aren’t masks required in that area?
Won’t Henri blow blue east coast covids far and wide.
DamnedGlobal warming! Hurricanes suck!No…Hurricanes Blow
NO… they actually suck
Both sucky eyes and blowing winds, with ocean heat moved up in the atmosphere eventually condensing water at elevation producing rain and thunderstorms.
Don’t they blow because they suck?
There’s no helping you, then. I suggest strong drink.
“If I had all the money I’ve spent on drink…
…I’d spend it on drink”
— Sir Henry (at Rawlinsons End)
I’ve been following this one: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-71.95,32.99,2547/loc=-73.777,30.971
It’s moved NNE the last 24 hours.
That Henri?
Henri has been trying really really hard to become an event as it travels northward. With media hype, he surely will
Aren’t Hanky and Spanky nicknames for Henri?
I think the author is trying to say that this will be the strongest storm to hit Long Island/ New England in years, that he predicted it based on classical modeling, and that the climate alarmists will claim it as evidence of global warming.
They just shouldn’t let them build there … that’s the problem.
And rebuild. They shouldn’t be allowed to rebuild either.
(and if that logic looks personally familiar to anyone, they should try harder to concentrate on their own issues.)
They should be allowed. They should not get their flood insurance subsidized.
Thanks Max you beat me to it. The Government, no matter the level, has not and should never have the power to prevent fools, with money, from throwing it away. Yet they continue to unconstitutionally send the bill for damages to taxpayers who do not have the money to build in natural destruction zones to begin with.
Over the last 20 years I have removed more than 500 homes/properties from the mapped regulatory SFHA (special flood hazard area). Some of them 100 years old, with never any ponding damage. I always cringe when someone uses terms like ‘natural destruction zones’ or ‘dangerous floodplain’.
what does notural destruction zone mean?
There are 10 FEMA regions. The concept put forward by the regulators was that each region was to be their own insurance pool … and the insurance is required if they get a federally regulated loan. This concept crashed very fast.
The rate standards are to cover each region. But of course the govt is in charge and they just steal from Region X & V to pay for region IV. And when there isn’t enough to take from other Regions, they allocate it through the budget lies and legislature allocations. They (FEMA) planned on skyrocketing the rates 7 years ago, but the legislature had enuf complaints that they slowed the increases (but they are still eventually coming).
In my region a person can generally get insurance from Lloyds of London at a much lower rate than the ‘Govt subsidized’ rate. The private company is much better at guessing risk than is FEMA, and their overpaid employees. Generally, gov’t WYO policies cost more.
“The Homeowners Flood Insurance Affordability Act (HFIAA), passed in 2014, ended the 50-year monopoly the federal government held on the flood insurance market. The act was a move to finally create a stable, private flood insurance market for property in the US.” (The above quote is from a Lloyds site and it is part salesmanship …)
The reason that the Feds want the insurance program is that they manage the program & they get to make a living (and have power) by managing other peoples stuff … not because they want to subsidize anyone. Like all other govt assholes, they (indirectly) gouge just enough to keep their power & market share. If they raise the rates too much they will lose power and ‘market share’.
*
yah…that reminded me of someone trying to sound so smart that they forgot to give any pertinent information.
You just need to get used to Joe’s style. He can have a bit of a ‘stream of conciousness’ style at times, but the information is all there.
Hi, Confused.
I’m Petercat.
But I do wish the author had explained things in more layman terms.
I have no idea what an SST is, there’s too much happening in life to know every detail of every field.
Sea Surface Temperature
Space shuttle
😀
Hi Petercat: SST Sea Surface Temperatures. The author is brilliant and I could not tell from the sarcasm what parts were what because I was unfamiliar with the status of the storm.
“The Perfect Storm”?
Again?
Joe you will get the same brush-off from the media that Cliff Mass did when he was predicting the June heat dome over Pacific NW America.
“freedom of the press is limited to those who own the presses.”
H.L. Mencken
Cliff Mass dismissed the idea of a heat dome over the Seattle area, where he’s based. He talked about downslope winds (think Santa Ana, Diablo, or chinook) making it across the Cascades and impacting Seattle for a day or two.
Yeah, from https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/06/the-reason-for-extreme-warmth-on-monday.html
Yep.
I should have said “heatwave”
I don’t know about Seattle, but in the northeast a heat wave is three or more days with high temperatures of 90°F.
While things certainly stayed hot east of the Cascades, they didn’t in Seattle. Cliff also reports:
BTW, I attended a family gathering in the midst of all this. I arrived at SeaTac right around the high temp for the day (i.e. all time record high temp), drove with my daughter through Portland (dinner there) and on to Bend OR, east of the Cascades.
I can confirm it was hot!
When I got back to New Hampshire it was a very chilly 56°F and rainy. I rarely turn the heat on in my car when I’m wearing shorts!
The highs in both of the Dakota will beat that hands down. Both are in the low 120s. Minnesota all time high is 115. I native of Minnesota and spend most of my adult life in North Dakota got tired of the cold moved to Arizona. The Pacific Northwest has no clue what hot is. Hot down here is when it above 110. the four digit temps are the normal all summer.
I’d like to hear Joe B’s landfall windspeed predictions for Henri. And his best guess of where that will be.
Maybe he can use an altered forecast map then claim he didn’t…
Maybe his delusions and insanity will get the better of him. Or is that you, Griffy? Why don’t you just run along now hun – I’m sure there’s a nice padded room just waiting for you.
You’re thinking of the other Joe B.
The griffter continues to promote the madness of crowds over this popular CO2 delusion.
When you want to know what a leftist, or green, is doing, look what they are accusing others of doing.
Oh, you mean the way YOU do it, Griff/
Grifter
I just saw this. See below or the CFACT page. 980 mb at landfall, don’t know where. That’s about 81 mph – Category 1!
My comment is here at https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/08/20/henri-is-the-storm-we-have-feared-for-decades/#comment-3323047
I was watching the Weather Channel earlier, while Henri was still a tropical storm, and the Weather Girl got downright giddy when she told the audience that Henri would probably strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane. She was smiling from ear to ear for some reason. Like this was a good thing.
“She can tell you ’bout the plane crash with a gleam in her eye”
– Henley observed this ages ago, but nobody was paying attention.
Hurricane Grace strengthened before just making landfall.
Henri is likely to make it to Virginia.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/namer/mimictpw_namer_latest.gif
ren, you should be much more interested in how WIDE the storm cloud will be. A smidgy little hurricane won’t do much damage outside a smallish area. Never mind radar maps, it’s the real-time, real world outer winds that you should be looking at.
Wasn’t Michael a smidgy little storm?
Henri is likely to make it past Virginia.
I’m not tracking the storm’s path, but the local meteorology people do a lot of due diligence on that. If we get much out of Henri, it will likely be flooding around here. I will stock the pantry and the fridge, and settle in for the long haul.
Henri generates threatening thunderstorms on the East Coast.
https://www.blitzortung.org/en/live_lightning_maps.php
The current increase in galactic radiation will increase air ionization. The jet stream will be more meridional.
and what will that mean?
Artic air over Britain.
Arctic.
More people need tin foil hats?
Though from the above there are already a few too many wearing them
Hello pot?
Griff you are the nutter.
It’s quite well known that some changes in solar proton stream & neutron count have some effect on the jetstream.
It certainly has a strong effect on aurora which will have its autumn peak in a matter of weeks from now.
The vikings equated high aurora with bad weather, and here in Europe the swallows flew home 2 weeks early.
We just don’t really know what effect it has, although speculation is rife.
We also do know the earth’s magnetic field is both weakening & the magnetic north is diverging faster for reasons we don’t fully understand.
However, we will soon see the artic bird migrations start, because those bird brains are way more intelligent than you.
(we live directly under their path).
If they start early this year, it means they are also expecting bad – severe cold weather.
How they know that, I have no idea, but NO they don’t wear tin hats!
You have to feel sorry for griffypoo. He’s never had to sit out a massive storm like Hurricane Andrew or Camille (1969) or the 1900 Galveston storm, or this current candidate.
You’re right about early migration. All the geese I’ve been watching in my area (NE Illinois) began heading in a southerly direction about 10 days ago. Piping plovers and killdeers are also gone south already.
Something’s up.
COP 26 is up, and Nature is Extracting the Urine… it will be wet cold and misreable…and the worst winter for decades
Have you noticed whether the Hummingbirds have headed south yet?
I haven’t seen any hummingbirds at all this year, but they may be down at the botanical parks south of me. The people who work in those areas plant hummer-friendly stuff.
It just seems like all the noisy birds have gone elsewhere.
Something is definitely up.
I think I can confirm the departure of the swallows, at least from central France. There was a lot of frenzied activity last week and since then nothing.
I would expect a brief appearance from a handful of the Nordic contingent en passant in the next few days.
The next marker will be the storks and then when our local herons are back in the water meadows. The starlings also seem to have started their annual conference season(!) earlier than normal.
asian? swallows are in Vic and looking to nest at neighbours, who hates em
I have a nice big shed and they wont build here ;-(
think feral cat maybe but my dogs DO remove those pretty quick
Don’t look up!
I have noticed that birds near me in Lincolnshire have started feeding and flocking together already – it’s a bit early.
Considering how many people have posted essentially the same thing, e.g., flocking together already, high activity in one location and then nothing – boom! gone! – and other things I”m seeing around here, it’s plain that the migratory birds are sensitive to things even the weather guessers can’t discern: if they’re flocking and grouping up early, cleaning out available food stocks, they are heading toward away from really bad weather.
We must be aware, and, as Obi-wan said “we must be careful” to NOT ignore what would otherwise alert us to oncoming bad weather.
More ice cream in the freezer!
Maybe they read it in the Nester’s Almanac.
This from the guy who proclaims that the models are capable of perfectly predicting climate.
That’s a (another) lie from “make it up Mark.” Of course you can prove me wrong with a quote from when Griff has said that.
The jet stream descends southward from northeastern Canada. It’s attracting a storm to the East Coast.
Would you say that it may pull the jet stream and heavy moisture further south than usual?
Just askin’.
It will pull air from north to south over the Atlantic.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
Thanks!!!
All hurricanes generate thunderstorms, especially on the outer bands where the tornadoes also occur. So far Henri hasn’t really affected the weather over land other than rip currents at the beaches (I live in NC). All the t-storms have been due to a very humid airmass already in place and a stalled weak frontal boundary and we have had a tremendous lightning show for about a week.
The reduced Earth’s magnetic field indicates there will be more lightning and I believe it. Hurricanes are really local events and it is always unfortunate to those that get in their path. I’ve been through quite a few and the best you can do is get out of their way and hope for the best.
“Hurricanes are really local events ” not really they are what cause Monsoon here in Arizona, they only need to be near the tip of the Baja to direct the moisture into Arizoina.
No. The monsoon season here is almost all fed by moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. That is why the pattern moves in from the southeast, not the southwest. Also not fed by hurricanes for the most part, although one hitting the east coast of Mexico can intensify it for a few days.
But you are not entirely wrong. Every once in a while (years), one will hit the entrance to the Gulf of Baja just right, and come roaring up between Baja and Mexico proper, or bounces over the peninsula. Those rare ones usually move slowly or completely stall out in the northern part of the Gulf, where all of that wonderful warm water is, feeding flooding rains into southern California, Arizona and New Mexico.
Last one of those was hurricane Rosa in October 2018 (although it was downgraded to a tropical storm by the time it got into the Gulf).
TS Irene (a major Cat3 out over water) in August 2011 took out lots of trees and power lines throughout New England.
I lived in Massachusetts then and had no electricity for days. Sucked. Some areas had no electricity for 2 weeks. That was a 45 – 65 mph TS with lots of rain that saturated the ground allowing trees to get uprooted.
NOAA retired the Irene name after that one.
We should use all this “free”government money to bury power lines. Burying them would be infrastructure spending I could get behind.
I have always thought that burying HVAC cables had inherent problems. The two main ones being than the cables had to be capable of dealing with heating caused by soil insulation thereby causing heating and losses. Also for AC there would be an inductive load also causing losses. For long distances these can be significant.
This is the memory of physics classes getting on for 60 years ago so things may have changed . But I do remember not to leave extension cables in a coil as that causes heating in the cable still holds true.
I assume you mean high tension lines, not HVAC lines. In general you are correct, you don’t want to bury those. That’s not what people are talking about. It’s residential lines that need to be buried and that really improves outcomes from storms. I grew up in Michigan and very few lines were buried there/then so Spring/Summer storms took our power out a couple of times a year. When I moved to Northern Virginia where the lines are mostly buried that really changed. My power almost never goes out as a result of weather and the only significant power outage I can even remember this century was the famous derecho event. Was that 2012?
Thanks Merrick.
I think that was the July 2011 derecho, from Camille. I live in northeastern Illinois. The power went out suddenly, then came back on, then went out, and there was not one bag of ice available anywhere because all short-order food places had lost power. I watched stuff belonging to my neighbors’ east of me go flying through my yard, but it didn’t even lift the corner of a shingle on my roof. Strange.
California is talking about burying high-tension lines to prevent forest fires.
Another problem that I can foresee is water getting into the trenches and shorting out the lines. That might be spectacular! The worms probably aren’t going to appreciate high-tension lines in the ground.
Cables for underground use are fully waterproof – at least until a tractor drives over then and pushes a flint through the insulation… Don’t ask me how I know this…
UK practice is to lay three phases more or less seperately, but in the same trench, each one has a colour coded phase outer a wrapping of hugh tensile strength steel wire armour for strength, a couple of layers of very heavy duty insulation, and then an inner copper or aluminium core.
Best practice is to lay in sand to reduce mechanical stress on the cables and then simply back fill.
Cable specifications – and apparently up to 132kV is supported – are here . I am surprised that they don’t specify armoured cable …
I was on my sailboat trying to get into the West River off the Chesapeake Bay when that occurred. I had a halyard stuck in my genoa and was up front trying to get it down and was seeing it coming on radar. Ended up cutting the halyard, got the sail wound up and docked literally a couple of minutes before it hit. It was an amazing sight to see the roll clouds ahead of it and when it hit…
“I had a halyard stuck in my genoa”
That sounds REALLY REALLY painful!
I hope I never have a halyard stuck in my genoa.
In the UK we bury all the (new) local 11Kv feeds. The trunks at 33kV and above are still overhead for reasons you mention – capacitance to ground is really the issue. And the cable gets very expensive at over 11Kv.
Like Sara, I live in NE Illinois. Retired Telco cable splicer. Here, all new 11-12kV lines must be buried (along with F2 telephone supply cables), and some towns are converting existing aerial to buried, to reduce the outages caused by downed power lines.
Some years back (a bit over twenty) I read about a pilot program in Detroit where they were using superconducting underground cables to supply a section of downtown (underground is NOT buried, that means manhole to manhole through ductwork). I never heard the outcome.
Burying HV power lines has two other significant problems. One is the geology in New England, the bedrock is close to the surface making burial much more expensive. A second is the geography of the population. With overhead lines, connections can be made anywhere, but with buried lines all future connections have to be pre-planned, changes are very difficult. New England doesn’t have the same type of predictable sprawl as other areas.
So much of New England got scrapped down to bedrock during LGM that now it’s just a couple feet or so of topsoil over bedrock. Make burying things in New England very expensive.
That’s why New England farmers left in droves in the 19th Century and moved west. When the Midwest and Oregon Trail opened up vast rich fertile soil farmlands to the west, farmers in New England simply abandoned their rocky fields and took their family and moved west to farm the free land grants (after we got rid of those pesky natives of course).
My great grandfather joined the exodus from Maine.
Mine from New Hampshire via Maine.
I remeber Irene. I was leaving on a flight to the West coast from Hartford Ct (the last one outbtw) and the thing appeared as a gienat white wall to the south. After it hit I did not hear from the better half for 2 weeks as all the roads, bridges, power, etc were down in S. VT. I think the rainfall rate was 6 inches in 4 hours. Not good in a hilly region. Took several years to recover.
Why do the authorities ignore experts and listen to the media for their info? The latest example was Germany, where the German Met Office warned the local governments for NINE days about the impending heavy rainfall. They were ignored, of course, and many people lost their lives. Not the governments’ fault but climate change. Politicians are idiots the world over.
I am confused with this “Not the governments’ fault but climate change” Are you saying it climate change caused the rain fall or the media hyping climate change caused people to ignore the warnings. As far a flood in Germany from what I seen it look like a normal extreme weather event for Germany nothing that has not happen in the past many time over.
I was paraphrasing. The governments (local) blamed CC; however, their lack of action in the face of 9 days of expert warnings led directly to the deaths as they refused to action the emergency plans. Yes, normal weather and not as much water as was released by the dambusters 😱🤣
We had record-breaking rain here in NH last month, and some places in the Monadnock region received as much as 18″. It was good in a way, as it obliterated drought conditions which had plagued us for about a year, but there was damage from flooding. Now, with Henri, flooding is likely to again be an issue, particularly again in the Monadnock region. Winds probably won’t be too bad, with perhaps 40 mph winds possible in southern and central NH, but power outages are likely. Which reminds me, I need to give the generator a test-fire, and top up the gas.
Warmer atmosphere, holds more water, increase in extreme rainfall and flood events. See also: Germany, China, Western Ghats, Japan rainy season 2021.
“Extreme” 🤓
We had this summer a lot of extreme posts from your side, but in contrast to extreme weather, your extreme comments are extreme predictable.
UK summer has been anything but extreme in fact. Overall its been wet, mainly.
This post is extremely correct.
It’s extremely disappointing that griffy still can’t understand the difference between climate and weather. He’s extremely lacking in the ability to look at the 30 year statistics on weather and observe no trend.
Germany you say?
Let’s look at peer reviewed literature shall we?
Water | Free Full-Text | Frequency Trend Analysis of Heavy Rainfall Days for Germany | HTML (mdpi.com)
Grifter is not big on facts, prefers feelz…
Great link btw.
“It was good in a way, as it obliterated drought conditions which had plagued us for about a year,”
Missed that part, eh Griff?
Didn’t you know that CO2 causes both drought and flood. /sarc
Often at the same time!
When we get bushfires here in oz, I always tell concerned relatives back in the uk that it’s ok, the flodding will put them out.
That’s what ManBearPig says.
True, a warmer atmosphere can “carry” (very scientific term ya got there, dude – did they teach you that in grad school?) a higher mass water vapor, but that is only a theoretical maximum value. The actual water vapor content depends upon many other factors, like wind direction and speed, sea surface temperature and currents, solar insolence, mixing models, the laws of thermodynamics, chemistry, physics, etc etc.
You see that is why you warmunistas are such idiots – you presume that a single formula can accurately model a complex systems of systems,
“Everything looks simple when you don’t know what you’re talking about.”
Words to live by.
BTW, being able to hold more water only matters if the atmosphere cools down and is forced to drop that extra water. As long as the air stays warm, that extra water stays in the air, it doesn’t contribute to rainfall.
In September 1985, when I lived in Connecticut prior to moving to Florida, Hurricane Gloria hit my area as a Cat 1 storm. At one point Gloria was a Cat 4 storm with winds of 145 mph.
Just another example of Griff’s lack of historical knowledge.
Wrong as usual Griff. Sure, the atmosphere may contain a bit more moisture now than say 100 years ago. So? Maybe try educating yourself on the mechanics of rainfall, and on weather before spouting your nonsense about “extreme weather” eh? The more you know….
Warmer air does hold more water BUT as long as it stays warm, doesn’t cause precipitation. Generally it’s when the warm air starts to cool down that precipitation occurs. Warm air will NOT cause more rainfall – quite the opposite; cooling air on the other hand…..
So Griff, explain the floods of 1342 that wer far far worse than anything in 2021. And marked the end of the mediavel warm period
Do some *real* studying. The Global Avg Temp is going up mostly because of higher nighttime temps. Storms and resulting rain are typically fed by evaporation and convection from DAYTIME temps, which are either stagnant or moderating. As usual, you have it exactly backwards. What you call “extreme” events are WEATHER, not climate.
But all the data say that the atmosphere is NOT getting warmer. Your hypothesis has been proven wrong.
A degree is the last century is what the data says….
That’s only if you average stuff that shouldn’t be averaged.
Is the atmosphere getting “warmer” when it is minimum temps going up and not max temps. Or does it just mean the earth isn’t cooling as much at night. Does this mean a “warmer” atmosphere?
“(A) Warmer atmosphere HOLDS more water”. The key word there is “HOLDS”. It rains when warm, moist air encounters cold air from cold fronts or air cooled from orographic lifting. The amount of rain that falls is proportional to the DIFFERENCE in temperature of the warm and cold air masses. The temperature gradient from the tropics to the poles is DECREASING. The arctic is warming faster than the tropics. Less temperature difference helps to offset the increased water content in the very slightly warmed air mass. No climate emergency there, griffter, you’re just mindlessly parroting the dishonest alarmists again.
Moreover, it has the potential to hold more water but in reality does not necessarily.
For example, in Colorado, our highest temperatures result from hot dry air coming up from the desert Southwest, and like so many above pointed out, precipitation usually involves intrusion of cold air or adiabatic cooling.
How much extra moisture does a 0.5C warming allow the air to hold?
Beyond that, it’s a big world, extreme events are always happening somewhere, and always have. Nothing unusual about that. No matter what you are paid to believe.
A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture—about 7 percent more per 1.8°F (1°C) of warming
So you’re saying Death Valley air has the greatest concentration of moisture?
You and the Griff only seem to be able to comprehend a single variable at a time.
Relative thing I suspect. 7% of very dry is still dry. But that is the truth of the matter.
I deleted what I had said reading further my point was well covered by others, no need to pile on.
good idea to take early steps
tell neighbours?
We’ve had some en extreme weather in the UK this summer….
….extremely dull, which makes the pronouncements of the BBC and the Grauniad even more unbelievable
Same in south of France. It’s been the most extremely un-hot summer I’ve seen in 25 years here. It’s already past its peak.
Un-Summer in Portugal too. Low 20s during the day, teens at night. I hear it is much warmer down south, particularly the Algarve.
We have friends in Limousin who, until the last week or so, were reporting cold and dull weather, and up until July wet and cold.
Ditto Burgundy. The late frosts wrought havoc with the grapes (not to mention my plums and pears!) and the number of days with temps above 30° (July & August to date) has been fewer than any of the last four years.
Rain on the other hand ……
A neighboring farmer just mowed down a field of corn that hadn’t even tasseled yet (Aug 19). It was planted in June due to cool, rainy Spring weather in Southwestern Indiana.
http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfst62/ANOM2m_monthly/ANOM2m_NCEP_monthly_europe.php?date=Jul%A02021&file=ANOM2m_NCEP_2107_monthly_europe.png
Not finished yet obviously, but August ain’t looking great either..
http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfst62/ANOM2m_europe/ANOM2m_pastMTH_europe.html
Fffffreezing here. Hottest evah from al ja beeba.
Is that true, or did you hear it on the BBC?
Riiight… because if it doesn’t happen at your house it isn’t happening… despite well over a dozen heatwaves, several setting records, in N America and europe this summer and a number of truly exceptional rain events…
This year is cooler griff as well you know
Nothing outside natural variation has occurred. No matter how hard you try to pretend otherwise.
If it isn’t happening here and other places it isn’t global, it’s local
It’s got so bad that the BBC/MO have reporting day temperatures in highest teens as average for time of year in daily forecasts.
Had the Daily Express predicted mega heatwave in August happened Griff would have assured you it was catastrophic global emergency warming behind it. I’m surprised he hasn’t mentioned rain on central Greenland’s only weather station for the first time since 1950, aka first time in history, as a counterpoint.
July 2021 was the hottest month ever recorded.
NOAA’s lying is approaching that of Biden’s.
Is that all you got on? NOAA is lying? And are you saying Trump never lied?
Griff, how come you always manage to repeat the same poop time and time again.
Do yourself a favour, go have a good DUMP today, and come back when you feel better.
If Griff had a totally expunging dump I don’t believe there would be anything left of him.
Perhaps a halyard stuck in his genoa prevents that.
As usual, you forgot the other sude of the globe, where the winter is extremely cold and recordbreaking.
Nothing outside of natural variability.
Weather, not climate, can’t you tell the difference?
I think it’s fairly obvious after all of his posts that he can’t tell the difference between climate and weather, or reality and fantasy, or warm and cold, or rainfall and drought. The list goes on…..
Some day, griffypoo, you will learn that there is a DIFFERENCE between WEATHER (short-term) and CLIMATE (long-term). I hope that happens before too long.
Otherwise, I’m concerned that you enjoy setting yourself up as a target for backlash. This is not a good thing, griffypoo. Please get some professional help with your narrow view, mmmkay?
What you mean griff, is if it isn’t happening in the Guardian or al Beeba it isn’t happening at all…
Yeah, we had a handful of really hot days here in the PNW. Now it’s August and 60f. So damn hot! NOT!
There have always been dozens of heat waves every year. Setting records is not unusual either, given how short the time period in which we have been keeping records.
As has been pointed out previously, while those storms were bigger than average, they weren’t exceptional.
So driving from Idaho to southern Utah, I was in rain for 6 hours to just south of Salt Lake City, The weather cleared enough to see the mountains to the east of Mona Utah, and they has snow on the top about 500 to1000 feet. That was on the afternoon of Thursday AUGUST to 19th. So in my area, the new ice age is showing its ugly head.
https://www.ksl.com/article/50226130/snow-in-august-storm-brushes-utahs-higher-elevations-local-rain-records-fall
But as griff will tell us, it is all part of CAGW, everything is; hotter, colder, rain, shine, floods drought, windy, calm etc.
Where I live, while I was out of town, friends with home weather stations recorded up to 4 inches Monday and 3.5 inches Wednesday. These were overnight totals checked in the am.
The nearest Snotel station to our home in Duck Creek Utah, Midway Valley, shows 6.4 inches of rain over the last week. Snotel is a system of precipitation and temperature stations installed for irrigation flow forecasting for farmers in the western US. Really interesting to follow, although they are still basing their % of average on 1981 to 2010, even thought they have all data till 2020. If they used the NEW magic 30 year (3 calendar decades) period the current total would be a much higher % of the annual average, so it is obvious why they have not updated. I still don’t understand why 30 years as 3 decades and not an update EVERY YEAR. Or better yet, compare to the TOTAL OFFICIAL RECORD. Instead they are comparing to some of the wettest years EVAH in the Rocky Mountains including part of the run up to when Lake Mead overflowed at Hoover Dam.
We are still in drought conditions, it takes winter snow to fill reservoirs. The rain has increased stream flow however.
We have a very ugly North American winter coming. Stock up on propane and wood now. Natural gas prices will be sky rocketing by January 2022 due to surging demand and low storage stocks of gas. The shortage will be especially acute in the NorthEast US. Electricity Blackouts in the January-February time frame are possible as natural gas-fired generation plants in NE US shut down due to gas delivery curtailments to big users by suppliers to maintain line pressures to homes and businesses.
My woodpile if full, and I have 2 500 gallon propane tanks. I have never used more than 300 gallons over the winter, but will top them off this fall since my BU generator is propane.
You never know when you might have an outage that lasts a while. My genset burns a little over a gallon an hour at low usage, which, with propane heat and water heater, I never exceed, even in the winter.
My geomagnetic Ap/Kp index Atlantic basin hurricane RI hypothesis says Henri will undergo a Rapid Intensification only if Kp (planetary K index) spikes with a Kp of 4 or above before landfall.
NOAA/SWPC provides near-real time K and A index observations here:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/station-k-and-indices
Jan Alvestad’s Solar Geomagnetic forecast reports:
“ The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on August 21-22 with a chance of unsettled intervals due to weak effects from CH1025 and quiet on August 23. Quiet to minor storm conditions are possible on August 24-25 due to effects from CH1026.”
As such, my hypothesis together with the geomagnetic forecast does NOT indicate Henri will have an RI before its landfall on Sunday afternoon.
Definition of a Rapid Intensification (RI):
Rapid Intensification:
An increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 kt in a 24-h period.
How about writing an article for WUWT to share the details of your hypothesis?
It’s been done!
Corbyn’s been at that non stop for the last decade & I suspect O’Bryan’s been reading too much George Orwell….
It will be interesting to see what the outcome is. Low pressure systems intensify during geomagnetic storms and is all part of the global electric circuit. The Sun isn’t that active at this point but that could change next week (after the storm hits). People can follow along at http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif
Fun fact:
Tonight is a Full Moon (@ 22 August 02:01 EDT).
TS Sandy made landfall on New Jersey/NYC at a Full Moon.
Hurricane Bob made Landfall on 19 August Rhode Island, 5 days before the FullMoon.
It’s the Moon What Dun It!! /sarc, humor (not serious)
But…
in August 1991, Hurricane Bob went from 86 MPH/979 mb (Cat 1) at 6am/18 August to 115 mph/950 mb (Cat 3) 24 hours later on 6am/19 August. Planetary A index (Ap) spiked on 19 August 1991 to 75 (a major geomagnetic storm). Ap didn’t fall below 20 index value until 23 August which by then was extra-tropical with a central pressure above 1000 mb.
The other part of my Atlantic Basin hurricane-Ap RI hypothesis involves the El Nino-Southern Oscillation ONI values, which says the hypothesis only “works when ONI is Neutral/Near neutral) with a ONI between -0.7 to +0.7. The ONI value in August 1991 was +0.6 (going into a full El Nino in October 1991). So ENSO ONI was on the verge of negating the Ap effect, according the hypothesis, which “explains” why Bob didn’t get a full RI episode (a 30 kt increase in 24 hours) on 18-19 August.
The current ENSO SST 3.1 and ONI values are at -0.4. So a RI for Henri could occur tonight or Sunday morning IF Kp goes to 4 or higher before landfall. But that is not predicted in the current Geomagnetic forecast (as of Saturday morning).
Meant to post this graphic of August 1991 Ap index to show the Ap spike that coincided by Bob’s intensification on 18-19 August 1991.
TS Sandy had help: A large weather front coming in from the northwest which met up with Sandy and intensified the storm.
This will be welcome media distraction from the debacle in Afghanistan.
Never mind the senile US commander-in-snieff has engineered the biggest foreign policy disaster since Saigon, they will pivot to Trump caused climate change and Hurricane Henri.
Is Henri a hurricane?
As I write it is still a Tropical storm, but only about 10mph off being a category-1.
Funny, Trump was crowing that he’d started the ball rolling & Biden wouldn’t be able to stop it, just a month ago.
Funny how the RNC is deleting online pages celebrating Trump’s deal with the Taliban.
RNC deletes webpage celebrating Trump’s deal with Taliban | The Independent
Why’s that do you think?
Joe said the buck stops with him. He owns it and wears it proudly.
I miss the peaceful world of Trump.
“I miss the peaceful world of Trump.”
Where he just denied any responsibility for his mistakes (covid f**k up), but claimed credit for anything good happening in the world. Classic this week where he says he negotiated the deal over the vaccines (which he did), but now it looks like we may need a third booster, he’s saying it’s all a con by the drug companies to make more money. In Trump world if he didn’t do it, it’s bad. What a turd.
Covid FU like stopping all flights from China while your ilk called his RACIST for doing so? Nope, he was correct, but didn’t go far enough.
Covid FU like NOT stopping all governors from closing schools? Yep. I agree that was a FU although I don’t think a pres has such authority unless he is a democrat.
Covid FU like getting “vaccine” testing and approval at all time record time? Nope. he failed to understand that it didn’t matter if the vaccines worked, they would be said to have worked. 95% effective my a$$. The fact that as many people WITH a vaccine are getting covid as those without and BIG GOVERNMENT AND BIG BUSINESS are all attempting to force EVERYONE to get the vaccine so that the drug companies and shot givers can make as much off of this BS is all about spreading around as much fresh printed dollars as possible. So TRUMP! is right again, AND there are NO STUDIES on the boosters AT ALL, to support a third shot since 2 don’t work, but we do know the drug companies and shot givers WILL MAKE MORE from giving another shot to sheeple such as you.
Covid FU by not directing the Institutes of Health to fully fund studied of face mask efficacy and Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine for prophylactic use and treatment of the China Virus? Yep. That was a HUGH FU that has cost aand is still costing hundreds of thousands of lives in the US and Abroad.
Covid FU of failing to fire Fauchi? Yep, that was a BIG FU.
Covid FU of not directing all intelligence agencies to start separate investigations into the Wuhan lab and the release of the virus? Yep.
Covid FU of keeping the borders closed for Covid infected illegals couldn’t spread it around the country? NOPE. OBiden and his minions are spreading Covid all over Texas and Florida, 40% of apprehended illegals are Covid positive, caught and released to Republican states without a quarantine.
So what is YOUR belief that leads to you saying he FU Covid? Give specifics.
‘So what is YOUR belief that leads to you saying he FU Covid? Give specifics.”
I do not have the time to go over every mistake Trump made re covid. It is all documented. Essentially though he mislead the US into believing it was all going to go away. And kept doing it and all through that time people didn’t take the threat seriously. He lied saying the growing numbers were because the US was testing more…. and so it went on. His primary motivation was to provide the optics that there was no problem so it wouldn’t affect his election chances. Well we know how that turned out….
“I do not have the time to go over every mistake Trump made re covid. It is all documented”
More hypocrisy Simon? Why am I not surprised. As usual, different standards for yourself.
I documented enough to make my case. I could have gone on. You on the other hand … well … just make stuff up. Boring.
I provided more than enough for anyone to know exactly what I was talking about, but you apparently can’t even remember your own words when you level insults. But that’s about what I expect from a hypocrite like must-have-the-last-word Simon. (Go on live up to it)
I see your leader got booed at his rally today for saying the vaccines work. He obviously disagrees with you on that one. That must be conflicting for you.
Trump is getting ready to speak at Cullman, Alabama tonight, in about 20 minutes. There are about 30,000 people in the crowd right now and long lines still coming in. Many in the crowd are holding up “Save America” signs.
If this rally is like Trump’s other recent rallies, then there will probably be a television audience of about 3+ million viewers.
Everytime Trump gives a speech, Fox News rating plunge, because they don’t cover the speech, and Newsmax’s ratings go through the roof because they do cover Trump’s speech. Newmax will have more viewers than all the other cable channels combined for Trumps speech.
Trump will probably have a few things to say about the Biden-caused debacle in Afghanistan.
The Democrats better find themselves someone else to run in 2024. Both Biden and Harris are toast after this Afghanistan fiasco.
“The Democrats better find themselves someone else to run in 2024. Both Biden and Harris are toast after this Afghanistan fiasco.”
I’m not so sure. As much as I believe he is a good man(according to Lyndsey Graham Biden is “as good a man as God ever created) I think it is time for new blood both Dem and Rep. And….Americans don’t really care that much unless Americans are dying. Sure there will be a curfuffle for a while, but something else will come along.
I don’t believe Joe Biden is a good man.
I question the intelligence of anyone who calls him a good man, given Biden’s long track record.
Of course, U.S. Senators, like Grahan, usually always say something complementary about the Senators from the other Party, but that doesn’t mean they are sincere in what they say. They are just being polite and collegial.
No, I think Biden is a criminal and believes in a very dangerous, delusional worldview, and he will lead the United States down the Road to Ruin, if given free reign.
Biden, should be removed from office as soon as possible.
When a lousy cook fails to execute a Chef’s recipe correctly, you don’t blame the Chef.
Mind if I quote you on that?
Really well put Tom, TRUMP’S! plan had us out MONTHS ago.
Biden gave himself an extra 100 days to plan a safe, orderly retreat. He apparently spent his time eating ice cream cones.
From Orange Jesius to pale grey zombie in the space of a single erection.
Did I misspell that?
You misspelled Jesus. It is spelled SAVIOR.
I take it you are a supporter of the Biden regime then?
Do you have any evidence that Biden followed the plan that Trump laid down?
Or do you just assume that Trump has to be at fault, somehow.
Biden threw Trump’s foreign policy overboard the day he took office – except this one he couldn’t?
https://nypost.com/2021/08/19/i-ran-trumps-afghan-withdrawal-bidens-attempt-to-blame-us-is-sad/?utm_campaign=iphone_nyp&utm_source=ph.telegra.Telegraph.Share
So a right wing paper says it’s not Trumps fault. Gee how did that happen?
If they had followed TRUMP’S! plan they would have been out months ago and all Americans would have be out before the collapse.
You will not see any of this on any MSM channels or newspapers. They only print what OBiden and heir Democrat “leakers” tell them to. I mean, they reported what “High level current and former government officials” told them for 2 years about Russia, Russia, Russia, which was ALL proven to be Fake News, but you still cling to your “trust” in those sources??
What an A$$hat.
But I am repeating myself.
Who’s the president, who made the decisions, Biden says he did.
One thing about it, we are going to know all the details of this Afghanistan fiasco before it’s all over. We’ll know what Trump did and we’ll know what Biden did.
The one thing about Trump’s plan was he was insistent that the Taliban not be able to take over Afghanistan.
And the status of Trump’s deal with the Taliban is in doubt. The Taliban broke the agreement and k!lled some people they were not supposed to k!ll, and the last I heard, Trump had stopped the negotiations because of this breach.
And let me go on record as being against any plan from Trump or Biden that results in a total withdrawal from Afghanistan.
But, like I said, we’ll get all the details eventually. Members of both parties in Congress want this investigation.
I’m pretty sure Biden is going to be the one that looks the worst.
Btw, Simon, did you see where the FBI says they can find no conspiracy to overthrow the U.S. government on Jan. 6, and they can find no Trump involvement?
It was just a bunch of people who got carried away with the emotion of the day.
“The one thing about Trump’s plan was he was insistent that the Taliban not be able to take over Afghanistan.”
Tom where did you get that from? Trumps plan/planning only included the Taliban. He didn’t even invite the Afghan government to the table – only the Taliban. That’s why he made concessions (some say too many) to the Taliban and not the Afghan people. Hell he wanted to invite them to Camp David till he was advised not to.
“Btw, Simon, did you see where the FBI says they can find no conspiracy to overthrow the U.S. government on Jan. 6, and they can find no Trump involvement?”
Yep I did, but that is no surprise. I never thought he was actually on the phone to the looneys. He just used them to promote his fake talk of a “stolen election.” That’s all they needed. He knew a big chunk of his audience were not discerning enough to work out the truth. And as we know…. off they went with their pitchforks.
“Tom where did you get that from?”
I get that from statements made by Trump administration officials.
They say Trump’s deal was based on the Taliban meeting certain goals and the deal would be called off if those goals were not met.
I don’t know all the details of the deal, we’ll just have to wait for more information.
Well, there were tens of thousands of people surrounding the Capitol Building and doing so peacefully, and only a few hundred entered the building.
There is no evidence that Trump encouraged anything like breaching the Capitol Building. Instead, in his speech, he told them to do so peacefully.
Trump is not the demon you think he is.
Tim
What bunch of crap.
Trump said at his last rally that Biden couldn’t back out of the Afghan evacuation. In fact he was crowing about it. I can get the quote if you need it.
Unlike Dementia Joe Biden, during Trump’s 4 years in office, the record is clear… Trump listened to his advisors on National Security policy. Biden has a 50 years long track record of ignoring National Security policy advice from experts and the Generals.
Trump would have changed course last Spring if he had remained President on advice from his advisors. Biden ignored them.
Biden is a puppet of the ChiComms. The CCP is negotiating a massive multi-trillion $ lithium/rare earth deal with the Taliban/Pakistan/Dark State. He was told to get the troops out, so he did as he was told. See Barrons Link.
“Trump listened to his advisors on National Security policy.”
That will be why they all left him then.
Well I think anyone who believes news from the Independent or any other mainstream media source is worthy needs help in the very worst way.
“This storm is something my dad would talk to me about for years when I was young, the shortcut storm that hit the northeast moving west of north…”
Difference is these days that stretch of water is 1.5C warmer than it used to be.
No, they aren’t. SSTs vary for lots of reasons. Sorry to bust your globaloney warming bubble.
Any evidence for that post? Or are you lying, as usual?
My mistake, 3C warmer.
Calm down with your “these days” as if it’s permanent, only in the last few days has there been a 2°C anomaly.
NOAA?
As if you can take them seriously.
NOAA is a data masseur/masseuse.
I don’t think private citizen observers of NOAA’s Cooperative Observer Program who gave their time and efforts every day for years really appreciate that their hard work is tossed into a climate data soup then seasoned to create a new reality that is different from the actual observations they made.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/06/06/noaas-national-climatic-data-center-caught-cooling-the-past-modern-processed-records-dont-match-paper-records/
UEA is not only famous for its climate narrative, it is renowned for its creative writing courses, too.
Did you ever go there?
Golly, its warmer thn ‘average’ in summer! Whoda thunk it?
That is an anomaly relative to the years 1985-1993
And Hurricanes happen “in summer”.
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/methodology/methodology.php#clim
But hey, if you expect a hurricane in winter you can find the SST deltaT for that on NOAA’s webpage as well.
Here’s the thing, even if the data is correct (and I’m always skeptical when they “massage” it), it still wouldn’t prove anthropogenic causation.
(SNIPPED off topic personal attack) SUNMOD
Loydo, there have been FAR worse storms long before this one. It’s unfortunate that you don’t bother to do a little real history research before you post things.
Knowledge gets in the way of proselytizing.
The claim is that the oceans in general have warmed by only 0.03C. That 1.5C is due to the vagaries of various ocean currents. It’s warmer than average, but nothing unusual, and like the other instances, won’t last long.
Ocean temps may be slightly warmer than normal, but the buoys from Wallops Island north to Long Island show the water temps are 76F-77F which aren’t that warm for tropical development.. you need 80F+. Henri is nature’s way of lowering these anyway. After it runs its course recheck the water temps and they will be cooler than normal due to the evaporative cooling and churning of the water.
The Gulf Stream interacts with the Labrador current starting off Cape Hatteras and you see swirls of warmer and cooler water all the way to the shores of New England. But then you wouldn’t know that because you would never take the time to look into it. A warm swirl from the Gulf Stream can bring tropical fish all the way to the coast of Maine and Nova Scotia at times during the fall.
Used to be WHEN? Yesterday? Last week?
NO than average you a$$hat. THE ANOMALY IS NOT PEMANENT.
It is cooler, then warmer than the same as average than….THAT IS HOW YOU GET AN AVERAGE!
Wow, they (Loydo, griff, Simon, etc.) are getting scarier and scarier. OR stupider and stupider. OR they are no longer only acolytes, but now priests of their religion.
Lets hope it veers north and eastward.
Hurricanes are definitely no fun. I agree.
Tracking like 1938
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_New_England_hurricane
I predict the NHC will exagerate the wind speeds by 20 knots.
Wow, and the storm track exactly matches Joe’s projected track for Henri??
So as griff would say, and does below, this storm is “unprecedented”!!!!!
un•prec•e•dent•ed ŭn-prĕs′ĭ-dĕn″tĭd►
Yep to a loony leftist, if it didn’t happen in their lifetime, or they have never heard of it before, it didn’t happen, so it is “unprecedented”.
And there you have it: another storm hitting further north up the coat with high intensity.
I think you people claiming it is just weather should go buy beach front property and put your money where your mouth is.
Do you mean like Obama?
Please sell me your beachfront.
There you have WHAT exactly griff.
Poopers in your pampers because hurricane seasons always have and always will happen, when you were in babies nappies back in 1987….
“The great storm of 1987 was a violent extratropical cyclone that occurred on the night of 15-16 October, with hurricane-force winds causing casualties in the United Kingdom, France, and the Channel Islands as a severe depression in the Bay of Biscay moved northeast.”
The greatstorm of 1703 was a destructive extratropical cyclone that struck central and southern England on 26 November 1703.
High winds caused 2,000 chimney stacks to collapse in London and damaged the New Forest, which lost 4,000 oaks.
Ships were blown hundreds of miles off-course, and over 1,000 seamen died on the Goodwin Sands alone.
Since 1987, it appears the UK has not had another event quite like the above.
I remember’87 well I was on night shift
Everyone “cashed in” on their insurance for roof repairs…
I was living in East Finchley in London when the 1987 storm hit. Many of the old magnificent trees on East End Road were felled.. I thought the bedroom windows were going to be blown in. My partner, now wife, slept through it all!
Hurricanes have hit Canada before
Did you not know that?
LINK
griff’s brain is incapable of processing any facts that don’t support his religious convictions.
What was the “Long Island Express”?
Griffypoo, sometimes you worry me.
MY HOUSE SITS ON AN ANCIENT DUNE WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. Let that sink in, okay?
In fact, this ancient dune is part and parcel of the ANCIENT SHORES of the massive lake that used to be one HUGE water body, and is now divided into the Great Lakes. The hills around here are ridiculously high, and consist of compacted sand under deep layers of dense dirt created by centuries – nay, MILLENIA – of grasses and weeds growing and decaying into dirt (loam, fella) and the closest I can get to flat land is 50 miles west of me. The valleys that separate the hills are the troughs from wave action of that very ancient lake. Dig down far enough, and you[‘ll find clamshells, as happened when I lived in Chicago just off Wilson Ave, 2 miles west of the current shore of Lake Michigan, and street repairs had to be made. Dozens of fossilized clam shells were thrown up, some the size of dinner plates.
Since you clearly have NO idea how weather (short-term stuff) is affected by topography, you might want to do a little research on that before you post something. Storms are WEATHER, griffy-poo. They are NOT climate, never have been. WEATHER is short term events, from hurricanes and derechos and tornadoes and flooding rains, to blizzards and blizzard thunderstorms and microclimate shadows where snow stays on the ground because the temperature in that shadow is still below freezing. That is WEATHER, griffypoo, not signs of Chaos and Climate Change. We’ve had snowstorms in April where I live for DECADES, you sap. It’s W-E-A-T-H-E-R. Yes, I do have photos.
If it snows in July, I’ll be concerned, get photos, and send them to the editors here.
And if you really understood anything at all about this, you’d KNOW that weather is short term, and CLIMATE is LONG TERM. And one hurricane or violent storm is NOT CLIMATE. Please read up on the Tornado Swarm of 1974, in the USA’s Midwest. Huge trail of damage. It was what prompted the National Weather Service to set up a network of Doppler radar stations, so as to give people a warning to get to shelter. But it was WEATHER, severe weather, and NOT climate change. Try to learn the difference, willya?
I’m really worried about you, griffypoo. Please consider getting some help with your obsessive need to insist that weather cycles are climate change, when they aren’t, because when the weather cycle of cold to warm stops being “to warm” and becomes long-term cold, with warm periods too short to grow anything but grass, then you are in real trouble. McDonald’s may not be able to supply you at the drive-up window any more.
Also, I have some news for you: if ANYTHING changes in the climate at all, it will be to a new ice age. And no, you won’t outlive it. But you will get plenty hungry, because crops don’t grow in the cold frozen earth, and chicken eggs tend to freeze solid if things are too cold. I had to collect eggs from the henhouse when I was 8, to earn my allowance (only one of my chores), and if it was too cold and there wasn’t enough bedding to keep the eggs warm while the hens were feeding, they froze solid. All you could do with them was make scrambled eggs or give them to the dogs, or just toss them.
Like I said, get some help and try to see the opposing view in a new light instead of being a butthead.
Oh, and have a nice weekend. 🙂
If it predates 1990 you’re wasting your time where griff is concerned.
I know, but it helps to “address” him when making a valid point. He’s so silly and naive, poor fella. Whatever will he do when the whiskey runs out?
Can’t afford it. All the best places have gone to politicans, Hollywood stars and climate activists. Do you think they know something you don’t?
Griff
And the 2 biggest natural disasters in history were in the last 20 years. Must be CO2 right? Except they were tsunamis. There is no evidence that weather disasters are worse now then in the past. You have been shown this time and time again, even the IPCC doesn’t show it and they are 100% political hacks.
Bob, you forgot to include the FACT (which you must provide to griffypoo) that both of those tsunamis were caused by major earthquakes, not by bad weather.
You ignore tropical storm and Hurricane history of the region,
List of New England hurricanes
There are a few dozen direct impacts and many smaller impacts listed.
Try doing research next time.
Did you even read the story? In the first paragraph he mentions a similar storm 30 years ago.
There is nothing unusual about such storms.
PS: If I had the kind of money Democrat politicians do, I would buy beach front property.
The problem is that the folks who are supposed to warn us about hurricanes will be asked to explain why they didn’t warn us of this one. What are they going to say? “We knew it was going to be bad but we were told to keep our mouths shut.” Hardly likely. Similarly, they don’t want to be in the position of trying to plead incompetence.
I am reminded of Hurricane Hazel which hit Toronto Canada, which is something that never happens.
link
When Hazel hit Toronto, it really was a surprise. I don’t think any particular recriminations were aimed at the weather bureau. Joe’s analysis makes me think nobody should be able to plead that Henri is/was/will be a surprise. If it’s really bad and warnings aren’t issued, we should expect problems for those who don’t issue those proper warnings.
You mean like the infamous Michael Fish of the UK MO.
The biggest UK weather forecasting FAIL of all time….
If I recall rightly, Michael Fish, just before that clip started, was answering a caller who was due to go to the Caribbean who had asked if a hurricane was due there, just before switching to the forecast for UK. It was, after all, the BBC!
I think you are correct.
That was 24 years ago and NWP has come a very long way since then …. also, and very importantly for this – so has satellite observation, as it formed late under a “jet streak” as it approached the UK.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/case-studies/great-storm
“A hurricane or not?TV weather presenter Michael Fish will long be remembered for telling viewers there would be no hurricane on the evening before the storm struck. He was unlucky, however, as he was talking about a different storm system over the western part of the North Atlantic Ocean that day. This storm, he said, would not reach the British Isles – and it didn’t. It was the rapidly deepening depression from the Bay of Biscay which struck. This storm wasn’t officially a hurricane as it did not originate in the tropics – but it was certainly exceptional. In the Beaufort scale of wind force, Hurricane Force (Force 12) is defined as a wind of 64 knots or more, sustained over a period of at least 10 minutes. Gusts, which are comparatively short-lived (but cause a lot of destruction) are not taken into account. By this definition, Hurricane Force winds occurred locally but were not widespread.
I was on duty as a Met Officer an RAF station during that period
Hmmm.. a met officer thinks that 1987 was 24 years ago.. I guess that’s within the profession’s acceptable margin of error.
How I larfed
A typo as a strawman to denigrate science
Is that all you’ve got?
Don’t need to show up you lack of cred Banton!
You can’t even answer the question as to why the @!#)!$$! Met office with all that money, managed to predict a BBQ summer, which was the exact OPPOSITE of what happened, and further to that, over a period of 6 yrs they also managed to predict the exact opposite of the weather that actually occured.
They and their cronies at environment couldn’t even manage the flooding of the somerset levels, because they had been so conned into the climate warming fiasco, they sold all the machinery that was supposed to stop the flooding in the first place.
With a mouth as big as yours, how can you have the gall to come on here and spout anything at all.
You need to see a shrink, because your observation of reality seems to come from looking out of the window of an office some place close to the M4, nothing to do with what actually matters to people who care about their cattle or their livelihoods!
Another storm. Anyone who has lived in coastal area should be prepared for damaging storms as they do occur.
Or move somewhere safer to live. What part if “sea level” don’t they understand?
Just askin: is this the reason I’m seeing the “red sky at morning, sailor take warning” come up at 5:30AM/sunrise? Does it explain the rapid rise in humidity in my area? (35 mi north of Chicago, 8 miles west of Lake Michigan).
Lots of red sky this morning – LOTS of it, and flat gray to the west of me. I won’t go shopping until Monday, so I’d better add ice cream to my list, eh?
I’m only asking about this because I may live in the Midwest, west of Lake Michi Gamu, but it does not mean we don’t get the side effects of the hurricanes, e.g., heavy rains, some flooding from the rivers overflowing (they’re pretty low right now) and heavy chop on the Great Lakes overall. Is shipping on Lake Superior going to be affected by this, for example?
Keep it coming, Joe Bastardi.
No, a cold front with thunderstorms is approaching you.
https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap
Thanks, ren! I’ve had just about enough of the Midwest’s idea of tropical weather – heat, humidity, A/C is useless! – to last a lifetime. I am looking forward to fall!
Been following Joe for long time and he right most of the time and at least explains events way in advance to the hysterical media. His reasoned arguments by analysing MJO and other natural cycles and comparing historic actual weather patterns help him beat the models hands down.
Wait, Real World observation beats GI-GO modelling?
Has anyone informed Mickey Mann and the IPCC?
I have a great deal of respect for Joe, but this is a little too Chicken Little for me. If I’m wrong, I’ll apologize later.
Well, looks like I can save that apology for a rain(ier) day.
Get your hip boots or waders out of the closet and be prepared to climb up on the roof because Joe just forecast that there is likely to be a tremendous storm surge of climate change excrement.
Anything that happens along the I-95 corridor is always worse than if it happened anywhere else and that goes double when it happens in the NYC area where the “News” Networks are headquartered.
Good distraction from dementia Joe and his abandonment of US citizens to the tender mercies of a bunch of illiterate donkey bonking Islamic extremists.
Oh and BTW! Those events in Afghanistan happened in part because of Climate Change according to CBS CBS News on Twitter: “How climate change helped strengthen the Taliban https://t.co/SB82Yx67QM” / Twitter
This is Mother Nature’s way of flushing the stopped up toilet that the Democrats have made in that area.
so I gather its a doozy of a storm, in an area thats not usually hit?
Sounds like it will be a doozy but the area has been hit before.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_England_hurricanes
After the fact, the press and the usual suspects will do their best to give the impression that this is, somehow, a new thing and it hit because of the “existential” threat of using fossil fuel. (aka “Climate Change”!)
Do not forget 1954 Hurricane Carol and Hurricane Edna. Both category 3’s at landfall in New England and within 100 miles of each other at landfall. And the water mixing of a hurricane’s wake did no good because Edna made landfall about 2 weeks after Carol.
If Carol or Edna happened today, what would the media do?
Also 1954 was Hazel, the only recorded category 4 hurricane to make landfall in North Carolina.
Strange that events that have happened before and with CO2 much lower are suddenly caused by CO2 this time.
I lived thru both of those as a youngster in southeast Virginia. I believe it was Hazel that completely wiped out my friend’s summer cottage on the Chesapeake Bay to the extent that even the pilings were completely gone.
This means weeks of high intensity climate change chattering from the usual suspects.