Save the Penguins!

News Brief by Kip Hansen – 4 August 2021

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (US FWS) apparently thinks federal policy should be based in single, speculative studies that claim to predict the future.  In this case, Martha Williams, principal deputy director of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service, said in a statement:

 “The decisions made by policymakers today and during the next few decades will determine the fate of the emperor penguin.” During an announcement that US FWS was proposing listing the Emperor Penguin under the protections of the Endangered Species Act.

Catrin Einhorn, a journalist for the The New York Times says, erroneously, that “The penguins live much of the year on Antarctic sea ice, which is disappearing or breaking apart because of the heat-trapping gases released by humans’ use of fossil fuels. The penguins need the ice to breed, raise their young and escape predators.”

The U.S. FWS proposal is claimed to be “informed by scientific research that was published independently in the journal Global Change Biology on Tuesday. That study found that if sea ice continues to disappear at the rate predicted by climate models given the world’s current energy trends and policies, more than 80 percent of emperor penguin colonies would in effect become extinct by 2100.”

Just to be clear, Antarctic Sea Ice is not disappearing in the present nor has it been disappearing for as long as reliable satellite-based observations have been available.

I have modified the NSIDC graph by bolding the trace for 2021.  The year 2020 is at the top edge of the shaded area representing the 1981- 2010 median.  It is obvious that since 1979, Antarctic Sea Ice has been stable within a narrow range and recent sea ice extents are right in the middle of that range.  2017, however, is a record minimum.  The trace that is the exceptional all-time high (black) is 2014.

The study is titled “The call of the emperor penguin: Legal responses to species threatened by climate change” by Stephanie Jenouvrier et al.  Jenouvrier is with the Biology Department of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.  The abstract states:  “Our results show that if sea ice declines at the rate projected by climate models under current energy system trends and policies, the 3Rs would be dramatically reduced and almost all colonies would become quasi-extinct by 2100. We conclude that the species should be listed as threatened under the ESA.”

“And not just for penguins,” Dr. Jenouvrier noted. “For us and for our children.” [quote given to the NY Times]

Read the study if you like, it is the culmination of a career spent predicting the demise of Emperor Penguins.  It has been produced specifically to influence the US FWS court-ordered decision whether or not to propose listing the Emperor Penguin under the Endangered Species Act.  Quoting the study: “The FWS is now under a court deadline to conduct a full scientific review of emperor penguin status and decide whether the listing is warranted by July 2021. [Note: the study was not officially published until 3 August 2021.]  Previous modelling efforts to project the effects of climate change on the status of emperor penguin populations (Jenouvrier et al., 2009, 2012, 2014, 2020) were not designed to provide assessments relevant to any legal framework. The analysis described below is specifically tailored for decision-making under the ESA, and expands upon previous research by assessing the effects of annual extreme climate-related perturbations through exploration of various climate scenarios.”

Please note that “Two co-authors, Shaye Wolf and Noah Greenwald, are employees and members of the non-profit conservation organization that petitioned the Fish and Wildlife Service to consider the scientific case for listing the emperor penguin under the Endangered Species Act.”

Jenouvrier et al.  do not give Emperor Penguin population figures in their study to support the claimed threat to the species. Why? As Susan Crockford reported just last August: “Emperor penguin (Aptenodytes fosteri) populations in 2019 were found to have grown by up to 10% since 2009 – to as many as 282,150 breeding pairs (up from about 256,500) out of a total population of over 600,000 birds (Fretwell et al. 2012; Fretwell and Trathan 2020; Trathan et al. 2020) – despite a loss of thousands of chicks in 2016 when an ice shelf collapsed.”

Readers can decide whether such a purpose-driven study is actual science or simply an exercise in activism following on to the numerous activist legal actions intended to force government policy.

If you are not convinced, here is the Conclusion of the study:

CONCLUSION

The world is facing a profound climate crisis and we need to act now to avoid the most catastrophic impacts; global society must therefore listen to science and meet the moment (Biden, 2021). Natural systems provide the ecosystem services that support people and sustain their livelihoods, as well as supporting the wildlife that form an intrinsic part of these systems. Sustaining these systems now requires legal frameworks that are appropriate to protect them based on the best available scientific evidence. Long-term ecological studies, such as that for the emperor penguin, are critical for providing robust science to document ecological responses to environmental change. Interdisciplinary science is also necessary to project population viability and species persistence in a future warming world. Such investments in science provide knowledge which must now inform legal frameworks, because with knowledge comes responsibility. Continuing to strengthen international climate action and biodiversity protection frameworks is key, but in the meantime, immediate efforts must also focus on the effective legal tools already in place, such as the ESA. “

Saving  the penguins apparently means supporting  President Biden’s “Executive Order on Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad” and pushing for the UN’s IPCC dictated policy solutions on “climate action” by [mis-]using the Endangered Species Act as a political and legal lever.

As far as I  can tell, there is no validity to the “models predict the future” approach used in this  study – which naturally emphasizes RCP8.5-style fantasy predictions of global temperature rise.  Antarctic Sea Ice has not been reduced over the last 40 years during which climate change is purported to have been rampant.  There is no reason to believe this will change in the near future.  There is no predicting long-term futures of weather or climate.  There is, therefore, no reason to accept the study’s findings that the Emperor Penguin needs protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act or that listing the Empire Penguin under the U.S. ESA would affect the future survival rates or population dynamics of the Emperor Penguin. 

# # # # #

Author’s Comment:

Yes, I know all the pros and cons of models.  Some models are useful, some are just plain speculation using maths and computer code.  Some are outright tools of activism.  Readers can (and will, undoubtedly) rattle on about this in comments below. 

The more interesting aspect of this is that the U.S. FWS caved to activists, under legal threat and pressure, based on a “study” produced, in part, by the very activists that brought legal action.

At least it isn’t blatantly just secret smiles hiding the old  “sue and settle” scam.

# # # # #

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Scissor
August 4, 2021 6:03 pm

Are they good eating?

Alexy Scherbakoff
Reply to  Scissor
August 4, 2021 6:11 pm

Orcas like them.

Gregory Lane
Reply to  Scissor
August 4, 2021 6:16 pm

Tastes like chicken.

John Tillman
Reply to  Gregory Lane
August 4, 2021 6:21 pm

Chicken of the Sea.

Alexy Scherbakoff
Reply to  Gregory Lane
August 4, 2021 6:22 pm

Comes with its own fish sauce.

Reply to  Gregory Lane
August 4, 2021 8:52 pm

Duck and geese is very oily. I would expect penguin to be the same, a very oily meat with a fishy like taste.

Joe Crawford
Reply to  Gregory Lane
August 5, 2021 6:16 am

Probably as bad as the east coast marsh hens which like rotten fish according to Granddad.

Last edited 1 month ago by Joe Crawford
Rory Forbes
Reply to  Scissor
August 4, 2021 8:50 pm

Shackleton swore by them.

Pamela Matlack-Klein
Reply to  Rory Forbes
August 5, 2021 2:20 am

Shackleton was starving! Amazing how hunger can improve one’s appreciation of vaguely-yummy foods.

PaulH
Reply to  Kip Hansen
August 5, 2021 8:39 am

This is another good read: “To the Edges of the Earth: 1909, the Race for the Three Poles, and the Climax of the Age of Exploration” by Edward J. Larson.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Kip Hansen
August 5, 2021 9:59 am

Endurance: Shackleton’s Incredible Voyage”, possibly the greatest survival story ever written … and it was all true.

PaulH
Reply to  Rory Forbes
August 5, 2021 6:44 am

As I recall from reading about the Shackleton expedition of 1909, they planned to live off the provisions they carried, supplemented by meat from penguins, walruses and the ponies they used to haul the sledges.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  PaulH
August 5, 2021 9:56 am

They’d have difficulty living off walruses in Antarctica. They’re an Arctic seal species. I could be mistaken but I believe it was only the Scott expedition that use Welsh ponies.It was a failure.

PaulH
Reply to  Rory Forbes
August 6, 2021 5:23 am

You’re right about the walruses, of course. Seals and Adelie penguins hang out on the Ross Ice Shelf.

MarkW
Reply to  Rory Forbes
August 5, 2021 2:52 pm

When he wasn’t swearing at them.

john harmsworth
Reply to  Kip Hansen
August 6, 2021 12:49 pm

In an icy tone?

Ian Johnson
Reply to  Scissor
August 5, 2021 1:59 am

Polar bears seem happy. From Funny Farm BBQ

Polar Bear Logo.jpg
Bob Hunter
Reply to  Ian Johnson
August 5, 2021 11:53 am

I believe the alarmists needed another well known animal, claiming Climate Change would push the species to extinction, after the alarmists’ claim polar bears were on the precipice of extinction has failed.

Reply to  Bob Hunter
August 6, 2021 2:13 am

The U.S. FWS proposal on penguins is alarmist nonsense – ice is growing in Antarctica.

Rich Davis
August 4, 2021 6:15 pm

In which US states do we find penguins? Oh no! They’re already extinct!

Long ago I stopped having the capacity to be surprised by what these Leftist loons come up with.

Craig from Oz
Reply to  Rich Davis
August 4, 2021 8:31 pm

That is because you mean and selfish humans melted all the continental USA ice sheets.

If you froze all of California under a solid 600mm of ice then… Well… you probably wouldn’t get penguins returning but the world would still be a better place 😀

Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  Craig from Oz
August 5, 2021 11:32 am

600 mm?

MarkW
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
August 5, 2021 2:54 pm

Isn’t that the thickness of skating rink ice?

john harmsworth
Reply to  MarkW
August 6, 2021 12:53 pm

Rinks are typically only about 20mm or so. More than that it takes too long to freeze after flooding or resurfacing. 600mm should be enough to shut California up. About 2 feet.

Last edited 1 month ago by john harmsworth
.KcTaz
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
August 5, 2021 3:38 pm

OK, so Craig got that wrong but the rest of his comment is correct. However, the San Andreas Fault is more likely to eliminate Calif. from the above-sea world than is ice.

Last edited 1 month ago by .KcTaz
Mike McMillan
Reply to  Rich Davis
August 4, 2021 9:30 pm

Illinois has penguins.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Mike McMillan
August 5, 2021 3:22 am
.KcTaz
Reply to  Rich Davis
August 5, 2021 3:40 pm

Hahahahahaha! Right on!

Pamela Matlack-Klein
Reply to  Rich Davis
August 5, 2021 2:26 am

That was my first thought on opening this article, where in the US do we have Emperor Penguins? They seem to be doing just fine down there, despite attempts by activists to paint them as the Antarctic Polly Bear. Activists only seem to care about photogenic species, where is their outrage about all the birds and bats killed by wind turbines???

john harmsworth
Reply to  Rich Davis
August 6, 2021 12:50 pm

No! They are in many zoos across the country. the fish are going extinct from feeding them all.

John Tillman
August 4, 2021 6:23 pm

Sheer, rabid lunacy.

Antarctic sea ice extent has grown during the dedicated satellite era since 1979.

Peak year was 2014. At this point in 2021, it’s tied for third highest with 2015.

philincalifornia
Reply to  John Tillman
August 4, 2021 8:19 pm

….. and well above 1979 too, the first year of satellite data reporting. People who are too f-kin stupid to be able to find the Antarctic sea ice data website write papers on Antarctic sea ice? Welcome to planet Libtardia.

Was griff a co-author?

n.n
August 4, 2021 6:23 pm

Think of the pups! Donate to WWF (World Walrus Foundation), a joint project of walruses and seals endangered by a greening Earth and sustainable, renewable ice cover. Go Green for a gray world.

Last edited 1 month ago by n.n
Richard Page
Reply to  n.n
August 5, 2021 12:56 am

True. By suggesting that something might happen in the future to threaten their existence, therefore we must act now and declare them an endangered species is fundamentally flawed. By that same metric, every species on Earth is threatened by one thing or another and should be declared endangered – including h. sap. Is there any chance of an outbreak of sanity in the near future – anyone care to do that particular prediction?

Gregory Woods
Reply to  Richard Page
August 5, 2021 4:03 am

I wouldn’t dare be so bold…

TonyG
Reply to  Richard Page
August 5, 2021 11:45 am

No chance for sanity. The insanity is mutating and becoming more infectious.

August 4, 2021 6:24 pm

Oh yes. Our models,which routinely predict much higher temperatures than actually have occurred, can be extrapolated upon to support a claim that a species is endangered?
That is apparently the argument of the wildlife service.

H B
August 4, 2021 6:27 pm

Utter BS
The new Polar bear scare and we all know how untrue that is
Emperor Penguins have lost breeding seasons because of too much see ice, they nest many miles inland

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  H B
August 4, 2021 11:07 pm

And the polar bears are eating them…..

Rich Davis
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
August 5, 2021 3:40 am

Don’t laugh! Thousands of polar bear climate refugees have probably streamed into Antarctica since the complete loss of Arctic sea ice under Trump.

According to griff’s model, there are only three polies left in the Arctic (medium confidence), and about 12 million in Antarctica plus or minus a trillion. (high confidence)

TonyG
Reply to  Rich Davis
August 5, 2021 11:46 am

I thought that said “three poles left in the Arctic”. But that’s just as likely I suppose.

john harmsworth
Reply to  Rich Davis
August 6, 2021 12:58 pm

Griff’s model? Made me laugh. I pictured a paper mache model that looks like a pile of garbage made out of Guardian newspapers and representing the utter futility of learning anything before just repeating what the Guardian says.

Rich Davis
Reply to  john harmsworth
August 7, 2021 5:47 am

Oh, so I guess that you have seen griff’s model. Yes, it’s as useful as its designer.

H B
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
August 5, 2021 9:02 am

Polar bears would love Antarctica Penguins ,naive seals, and elephant seals, but leopard seals might put up a fight (seen the teath on these bty the eat other seals)

John Tillman
August 4, 2021 6:30 pm

More Emperor Penguins discovered.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53549299

Sea ice currently expanding, contrary to models.

john harmsworth
Reply to  Kip Hansen
August 6, 2021 12:59 pm

Soon those sweet tuxedos will be big enough to start harvesting!

Rich Davis
Reply to  John Tillman
August 5, 2021 3:44 am

But is imperialism really a good idea in the 21st century? Sounds like more income inequality to me. It’s always the krill who suffer most.

Disputin
Reply to  Rich Davis
August 5, 2021 4:10 am

Imperialism is always a good idea. Bring back the British Empire! The 20th century shows quite clearly the folly of breaking it up.

john harmsworth
Reply to  Disputin
August 6, 2021 1:02 pm

Black and white lives matter. We want fish! We want fish! What do we want? Fish! When do we want them? Now! Who will you vote for? Fish! What’s one plus one? Fish!

Robert of Texas
August 4, 2021 6:38 pm

So they gave up on the Polar Bears since they keep breeding and being generally uncooperative, and now they are marketing the Penguins.

How so…unexpected.

Last I heard the temperatures in Antarctica are going the wrong way. How inconvenient of Mother Nature (or is that Person-of-Indeterminate-Gender-Nature now? I can never keep up with Woke-ism).

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Robert of Texas
August 4, 2021 7:22 pm

Next it will be clams — “Clams got legs!”

Martin C
Reply to  Carlo, Monte
August 4, 2021 9:04 pm

. .wow . . i think i remember that statement from a ‘BC’ comic strip . . . 🙂

. .uh oh, i think that may give a general indication of my ‘life experience’ . . ( aka as ‘number of years on this wonderful planet . . . 🙂 )

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Martin C
August 5, 2021 6:13 am

The real sad part is, if the Eco-Nazis get their way, our 21st Century lives are quickly going to look like the “BC” comic strip!

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Robert of Texas
August 4, 2021 8:48 pm

Re polar bears. Recent pictures and videocams from Susan Crockford’s essays depict the fattest polar bears I have ever seen pictures of. One cam in the Churchill Manitoba region captured an enormous female with three cubs coming off the ice a couple of days ago.

The Polar Bear Study Group has delayed by six years the count and health survey they did for selected regions. That’s a measure of the robust growth and superb condition of the bears! You know that if the critters had declined and were sickly we would have had the report before the snow had melted off their boots.

Didn’t the penguin boffins lose a hundred thousand emperors a few years ago, only to learn they had walked somewhere else. They similarly (temporarily) lost 100,000 caribou and a number of bears, all creatures capable of long distant travel.

Coeur de Lion
Reply to  Gary Pearse
August 5, 2021 1:51 am

Adelies

Richard Page
Reply to  Coeur de Lion
August 5, 2021 2:35 am

No. One of the most common species of penguins in the Antarctic.

Richard Page
Reply to  Richard Page
August 5, 2021 2:44 am

Whups- that’ll teach me to read every post in order. It was indeed Adelies that they lost and falsely claimed they had died off.

Mr.
Reply to  Gary Pearse
August 5, 2021 9:48 am

Yes I remember that about the caribou herds.

The local Indian people were highly amused that the government wildlife researchers expected the caribou migrations to be in exactly the same places, at exactly the same times, in exactly the same numbers every year.
😳

Michael
Reply to  Robert of Texas
August 4, 2021 8:59 pm

I believe the term is now Birthing-Person-Nature.

Richard Page
Reply to  Robert of Texas
August 5, 2021 2:42 am

Neither Emporer nor Adelie penguins are particularly endangered or threatened in the Antarctic. The only information I could find that concerns these scientists is that both species (and others) have changed some of their behaviours in recent years. Well duh – they are presumably adapting to local conditions; not necessarily a bad thing unless you are a climate activist that is deluded enough to think that change simply cannot happen. The most worrying thing about this is the deluded behaviour of climate activists.

Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  Richard Page
August 5, 2021 11:46 am

“… simply cannot happen …” ==> “simply should not happen …”

H. D. Hoese
August 4, 2021 6:53 pm

   “….enhanced precautionary management……” Good old precautionary principle now elevated. You have to prove that they aren’t threatened.

Other authors from School of Earth and Environment, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand another from Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ., Paris, France, Climate Law Institute, and Center for Biological Diversity, Oakland, California, USA

Only first author from WHOI which used to be the authority for oceanography along with Scripps, both not so much anymore. So was the Sorbonne excellent in other fields, don’t know about the others. 

Another paper quote from WHOI author on extinction.
“Here, we show, using simulations over a wide range of parameters that the estimator performs reasonably well. The bias induced by biological factors appears relatively weak. The most important factor enhancing the performance (bias and precision) of the local extinction rate complement estimator is sampling effort. ”

The negativity in marine ecological papers is amazing, haven’t added it up, but there must be lots of scared “researchers” afraid of the future, know absolutely what to do based on hypotheticals. Would like to know how many of these have actual field work, authors from British Antarctic Survey might have. Even if they are only following the money, lots must be scared. Pitiful. Need to check out their mentors.

eck
August 4, 2021 7:07 pm

To me, this whole scam borders on criminal activity.

philincalifornia
Reply to  eck
August 4, 2021 8:36 pm

…. yep, here’s another pack of lies and steaming horse poop from Seth Goebbelstein:

https://apnews.com/article/europe-canada-science-climate-environment-and-nature-8752948ac9afcee5aec4811215dc7401

People actually still believe this. It’s mindboggling.

John Garrett
August 4, 2021 7:09 pm

Obviously, there is no fact-checking at the Associated Press which swallowed the whole story— hook, line and sinker.

https://apnews.com/article/science-environment-and-nature-climate-change-penguins-7a42cf12d4810edace89081f04e624f8

Christina Larson, Seth Borenstein and their brain-dead cohorts at the AP are either dumber than a box of rocks or they’re producing this crap with malicious intent.

philincalifornia
Reply to  Kip Hansen
August 4, 2021 8:26 pm

More lucrative protracted inaction – even the Doom Goblin has figured out that it has nothing to do with reducing CO2 in the atmosphere.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Kip Hansen
August 5, 2021 3:52 am

I am so praying for a freak ice storm in Glasgow during COP26. Anybody know if Algore will be there? (Gore Effect Snow)

n.n
Reply to  John Garrett
August 4, 2021 7:35 pm

A lovingly crafted handmade tale… “Think of the children” (pun intended).

Last edited 1 month ago by n.n
AGW is Not Science
Reply to  John Garrett
August 5, 2021 7:40 am

are either dumber than a box of rocks or they’re producing this crap with malicious intent

I’m going with “C. All of the above.”

Jim Steele
August 4, 2021 7:16 pm

I wrote a chapter titled Counting Emperor Penguins” for the book “CLIMATE CHANGE THE FACTS 2020″. https://climatechangethefacts.org.au/
Here’s an excerpt:

Designations of a species’ health by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) is considered the global gold standard for conservation. In 2009, the IUCN ranked this ice-dependent penguin as ‘least concern’. ‘Least concern’ is the healthiest of all IUCN rankings. At that time the Emperor Penguin population consisted of an estimated 270,000 to 350,000 adults. The population was deemed stable in the absence of evidence for any declines or substantial threats. In 2012, their population was still considered stable, and the estimated number of known adults had increased by 36% to 476,000 adults (Fretwell 2012). Although larger populations are considered more resilient, the IUCN downgraded their status to ‘near threatened’ because models projected a rapid population decline over the next three generations owing to the effects of projected climate change (Ainley et al. 2010).

By 2017, the total number of known Emperor Penguins increased again to about 595,000 adults and that number is likely still rising, as new colonies have been discovered but not yet included in the species’ population estimate. However, the IUCN maintains the Emperor Penguin’s status as ‘near threatened’ (Bird Life International 2018), because it remains uncertain to what degree increasing numbers of known Emperor Penguins are the result of a growing population versus newly discovered colonies. Nonetheless, other than large variability in single colonies, there is no evidence the species’ overall numbers are diminishing…..

Temperatures around the Dumont D’urville colony has been getting cooler sinc 1970

DUmont Durville  emperor temps.png
Jim Steele
Reply to  Jim Steele
August 4, 2021 7:22 pm
Reply to  Kip Hansen
August 4, 2021 8:56 pm

When scientists become activists pushing policy in their field within a political realm they cease being scientists. Whether Miss Jenouvrier realizes her descent into junk science I cannot say, but it is a descent nonetheless.

GISS-joker James Hansen is the Poster Boy for The Scientist — turned activist — turned Junk Scientist.

Last edited 1 month ago by joelobryan
AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
August 5, 2021 7:45 am

Indeed, and the claim of “scientific consensus” is a “consensus NOT of “scientists,” but a consensus of “activists.”

We should therefore more accurately refer to the “consensus” crap as the “activist consensus” from now on, in order to be more factual about what is actually the issue being discussed.

As soon as a “scientist” loses his or her objectivity, they cease to be a “scientist” by definition, I don’t care what “credentials” they possess.

Last edited 1 month ago by AGW is Not Science
DMA
August 4, 2021 7:17 pm

How would this ES listing effect us here in the US? Could it be used to mandate reductions in fossil fuel use or is just to create a cash cow? They seem to be pushing it without any data just speculation much like the polar bear listing. The polar bear speculation of doom has been shown to be false but many dollars were spent along the way and that habit doesn’t seem to be stopping with the falsification of the hypothesis.

Zig Zag Wanderer
August 4, 2021 7:19 pm

Ignorance is Strength ™

Stephen Skinner
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
August 5, 2021 6:30 am

cold is hot

Richard Page
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
August 5, 2021 7:12 am

Yes, yes. Illusion of strength is the dark side, hmm. Pretty sure Yoda would have some more pithy things to say about it.

observa
August 4, 2021 7:19 pm

Yes what can the doomsters do when they’re not getting any traction with their poley bear extinction BS-
Emperor penguins on the pathway to EXTINCTION by 2100, study warns (msn.com)
In the dooming business you can’t stand still and become an easy target to refute but have to keep moving right along like global warming climate change extreme weather yada yada.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  observa
August 5, 2021 7:52 am

You would think that the fact that the penguins survived the Holocene Climate OPTIMUM which was much warmer than today would tell anyone who dare call themself a “scientist” that a bit warmer climate is not threat to penguins, but I guess that that requires logic and reason, something many of today’s so-called “scientists” seem incapable of.

John Swallow
August 4, 2021 8:12 pm

“Many species have been impacted by rising temperatures. For example, researcher Bill Fraser has tracked the decline of the Adélie penguins on Antarctica, where their numbers have fallen from 32,000 breeding pairs to 11,000 in 30 years.”
 http://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/global-warming-effects/

 It would appear that National Geographic has trouble keeping up with their own wild eyed alarmist agendas.

“3.6 Million More Penguins Live in Antarctica Than Thought
New research estimates roughly six million Adélie penguins live in East Antarctica—cause for celebration and concern.
 PUBLISHED MARCH 15, 2017
The number of Adélie penguins living in East Antarctica may be double what scientists previously thought.”
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/03/adelie-penguin-population-antarctica/ 

John Hultquist
Reply to  John Swallow
August 4, 2021 8:56 pm

Increasingly National Geographic magazine is neither national, nor geographic, nor scientific. The editors must have choked when publishing that last one. I gave it up about 15 years ago. Likewise, with Scientific American, this year — Discover.

Graemethecat
Reply to  John Swallow
August 5, 2021 4:54 am

National Geographic can’t even keep its own lies straight.

“A liar needs a good memory”.

-Quintilian.

pochas94
August 4, 2021 8:12 pm

Emperor colonies disappear because they become uninhabitable because of too much poop and old carcasses lying around. Then, they go somewhere else.

aussiecol
August 4, 2021 8:19 pm

“And not just for penguins,” Dr. Jenouvrier noted. “For us and for our children.” 

Or more like: ”for us and our (add as many ‘great’s’ as you like) grandchildren.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  aussiecol
August 4, 2021 8:42 pm

For us and for our next grant check

Craig from Oz
Reply to  aussiecol
August 5, 2021 1:39 am

Do we and our children need to start living on ice sheets?!

Gosh. Dr J thought of everything!

(also, do we need to be fully vaccinated to live on the ice or not?)

Rich Davis
Reply to  Craig from Oz
August 5, 2021 4:01 am

Five jabs may do it, but mask up continuously!

mikebartnz
August 4, 2021 8:41 pm

The poor old Polar Bear no longer cuts the mustard so they have moved onto something else most of the population would be ignorant of.

August 4, 2021 8:45 pm

Jenouvrier is simply telling the Big Lie, repeating it again and again, and hoping the public doesn’t catch on that he’s a liar because he has activist shills at places like the NYTimes crap paper uncritically reporting his lies.

The US Democrat mantra, and by extension the mantra of activists who masquerade as scientists, has simply become, “If we aren’t lyin’, we aren’t tryin’.”

Michael
August 4, 2021 8:57 pm

Couldn’t model the polar bears into extinction so now it’s the penguins.

Michael
Reply to  Kip Hansen
August 5, 2021 8:06 pm

Quite true.

Robert Alfred Taylor
Reply to  Michael
August 5, 2021 4:30 pm

Saul Alinsky: #07. “A tactic that drags on too long becomes a drag.”
He recommends changing immediate objectives to keep everyone from becoming bored with the program.

Walter Sobchak
August 4, 2021 9:59 pm

I am under the impression that the only penguins in the jurisdiction of the United Sates are in zoos. Why are Federal employees spending time on this issue?

Rich Davis
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
August 5, 2021 4:05 am

You may have missed Jerry Nadler, but then again Congress is a zoo I suppose.

spock
August 4, 2021 10:44 pm

Save the penguins, buy a fart stopper!

cow fart stopper.jpg
August 4, 2021 11:06 pm

Think of the children? I AM worried about the children because as they get older they will certainly start to understand they’ve been lied to since birth as they will see that the oceans did NOT rise and swallow up coastlines, Polar bears will NOT be even slightly endangered, penguins did NOT experience any environmental degradation, the corals did NOT burn away to cinders and the money spent on green energy did NOT achieve much beyond shoving concrete hither and yon with broken and damaged turbines littering the landscape like giant discarded toys… I am worried that children will lose faith in humanities ability to function logically and who could blame them?

Last edited 1 month ago by Dave Stephens
AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Dave Stephens
August 5, 2021 8:03 am

I’m more worried that “the children” will unnecessarily live lives of misery and suffering because of climate policies that wouldn’t do a thing about the imaginary “crisis” even if it was real.

Rod Gill
August 4, 2021 11:18 pm

A vague memory, but I thought Emperor Penguins travelled far enough inland that they had their chicks on solid land. I think the reason is that the chicks leave for sea in early summer after a lot of the ice has melted, hence the need to be inland.

Ed Zuiderwijk
August 4, 2021 11:53 pm

I’d be curious to read Biden, 2021 and the references therein.

Joao Martins
August 5, 2021 1:37 am

Emperor penguins must be saved!

Antactida is getting colder (due to climate change caused by burning fossil fuels, of course), penguins risk to freeze and become extinct!

Rudi
August 5, 2021 2:09 am

The Polar Bear does not exist any longer in the minds of these activists. That is why they now are using these penguins and they will do so until they also are extinct in their minds. Reality is not something they pay much attention to, it is more about their own mind and mission.

Stephen Skinner
August 5, 2021 2:45 am

“The decisions made by policymakers today and during the next few decades will determine the fate of the emperor penguin.”
No it won’t. She’s an idiot and needs to go and get some life experience.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Stephen Skinner
August 5, 2021 8:08 am

Ultimate hubris, yet again. WE are the supposed “cause” of something we have no control over and no demonstrable influence on, and WE are the only ones who can “fix” it, via a mechanism that has no demonstrable effect.

Mark Kaiser
August 5, 2021 4:34 am

Kip, please don’t distract us from saving the polar bears. 😉

Stephen Skinner
Reply to  Mark Kaiser
August 5, 2021 6:29 am

But they are poles apart.

Mark Kaiser
Reply to  Kip Hansen
August 5, 2021 1:33 pm

Good idea for a science fiction movie. Carnivorous Killer Penguins!

Alba
August 5, 2021 4:38 am

Can we look forward to the WWF fund-raising by asking us to Sponsor a Penguin?

Bruce Cobb
August 5, 2021 4:47 am

The Climate Liars’ marching orders are to increase the number and volume of their screeching because of Glasgow, which will be a big failure, but will be hailed a “success”. I think the theme song this year is “Stayin’ Alive”.

John Garrett
August 5, 2021 5:00 am

Kip,
I am once again in your debt. Thank you for alerting me to this latest climate-related scam.

I have provided a link to this piece in my vociferous complaint to the Associated Press.

I’m not dumb enough to think my objection will have the slightest effect on the AP but at least somebody in that climate propaganda operation will know that there are people who are aware of what they are doing.

I really don’t mind if the climate crackpots should happen to experience the return to the Stone Age that would likely result from their deluded activism— unfortunately, in so doing, they will drag me along with them.

observa
August 5, 2021 5:11 am

Emily has been studying mussels for over 20 years and she knows a climate crisis when she sees one or another freebie knees-up in Glasgow is just around the corner-
What happens when millions – or billions – of sea animals die on one day? (msn.com)
How would you feel as an Emperor penguin being blown off the dooming front page by a measly mollusc? Take a flying leap and commiserate with the walruses.

David Sulik
August 5, 2021 5:49 am

The 4Ms, More Mental Model Masturbation.

AGW is Not Science
August 5, 2021 6:09 am

if sea ice declines at the rate projected by climate models under current energy system trends and policies

I needed to read nothing more than that. IF (weasel word alert! not going to happen) it declines at the rate projected by climate models (don’t make me laugh! not going to happen, in particular since the models assume the non-“fact” of “CO2 drives temperature,” which it has not been empirically demonstrated to do, and said “models” consistently “predict” 2-3x more warming than the real world, while assigning 100% of the “cause” to CO2 which is the “cause” of none of it) under current energy system trends and policies (again, incorporating the assumption “CO2 drives temperature” which it has never been empirically show to do).

So IF there unsupported assumptions are true, insert “disaster du jour.” More junk science circular logic. NEXT!

Stephen Skinner
August 5, 2021 6:33 am

Children won’t know what snow is penguins are. We can only hope that they will also discover that the Emperor has no clothes.

Last edited 1 month ago by Stephen Skinner
Richard Page
Reply to  Stephen Skinner
August 5, 2021 7:15 am

Emporer penguins have no clothes, they just look like they do.

Andy Pattullo
August 5, 2021 8:20 am

Polar bears didn’t just refuse to die as predicted, but have transmutated into emperor penguins which also refuse to die as predicted. At this rate the world will be overrun by endangered species long before we can measure any significant change in sea ice levels.

Mike Maguire
August 5, 2021 9:28 am

The fake polar bear crisis as a marketing scheme didn’t work out so well when polar bear numbers INCREASED 30% since 2005.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/38156/#38235

This new fake penguin crisis bodes well for the penguins future based on that(-:

At least with the fake polar bear crisis, the Arctic SEA ice was actually shrinking…….there was some empirical data. With the fake penguin crisis, there is ZERO empirical data. Just more simulated global model output using subjective equations that have been WRONG about the Antarctic ice for 4 decades based on the measured/empirical data.

This is anti science…………..but makes for wonderful politics.

TonyG
August 5, 2021 12:34 pm

I’m really getting worried about all this melting (ant)arctic sea ice. If all the ice melts won’t all the water fall off the edge?

Steve Z
August 5, 2021 12:57 pm

While the warm-mongers are worried about their extinction, the penguins are hanging out up north in Tierra del Fuego waiting for the sun to rise over Antarctica next month. Any penguin still south of the Antarctic Circle would have been in the dark for the last four months!

.KcTaz
August 5, 2021 3:27 pm

“…That study found that if sea ice continues to disappear at the rate predicted by climate models given the world’s current energy trends and policies, more than 80 percent of emperor penguin colonies would in effect become extinct by 2100.”
Perhaps someone should show this to the judge. I suspect that Emperor Penguins would be relatively the same as the others who live in Antarctica.

Why Antarctica And Greenland Ice Melt is Not Serious
Writing in the journal Nature, scientists at Columbia University and the University of Victoria, British Columbia report,

The Antarctic continent has not warmed in the last seven decades, despite a monotonic increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. ”The scientists also observe that over the past several decades, “Antarctic sea ice area has modestly expanded.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-020-00143-w
08 October 2020

I take it the models failed to predict, or even to notice seven decades of no warming and modest ice expansion in the Antarctic? One must wonder about models that don’t know what’s happened even after it’s happened.
Oh, yeah, then there is this.

CLAIM: Climate Change Cited for Penguin Decline
https://cbsn.ws/2AX9clo
Guest Blogger / January 25, 2020
…Ironically, the journal article below from a 1991 study claimed that the chinstrap penguin population increased during the 1900s *because* of global warming. So apparently global warming can both increase and decrease the penguin population. Wish the climate community would get their story straight!
https://marine.rutgers.edu/dmcs/ms606/2011%20fall/Fraser%20et%20all%201992.pdf
Adding even more confusion, the following informational page from the Australian Department of Environment states that the chinstrap penguins have lower breeding success when there is more sea ice as it restricts access to the sea for foraging adults.
But the original CBS article says that more sea ice means more krill and a higher population of chinstrap penguins.
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/about-antarctica/wildlife/animals/penguins/chinstrap-penguins
So let’s sum this all up:
* Global warming = decline in the # of chinstrap penguins
* Global warming = increase in the # of chinstrap penguins
* More sea ice = lower breeding success of chinstrap penguins
* More sea ice = increase in the population of chinstrap penguins
So basically no matter what happens to the penguin population, climate change has all the bases covered. Expect anything different…?

Last edited 1 month ago by .KcTaz
.KcTaz
August 5, 2021 3:50 pm

It seems to me the CAGW Alarmists may have missed something. Did these folks happen to mention if anyone was busy banding the Emperor penguins so they could count them?

CLAIM: Climate Change Cited for Penguin Decline
https://cbsn.ws/2AX9clo

“CBS news recently reported a 50% decline in the number of chinstrap penguins residing on Elephant Island and a 75% decline of those living on Penguin Island all because of ….. drum roll please ….. global warming!”

The scientists banded the penguins to get their count.
BUT

Did they consider the human factor?

Reliability of flipper-banded penguins as indicators of climate change
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v469/n7329/full/nature09630.html

” Over the course of a 10-year longitudinal study, banded birds produced 39% fewer chicks and had a survival rate 16% lower than non-banded birds, demonstrating a massive long-term impact of banding and thus refuting the assumption that birds will ultimately adapt to being banded.”

John Sandhofner
August 5, 2021 7:52 pm

“Our results show that if sea ice declines at the rate projected by climate models under current energy system trends and policies” Just like global warming this projection is all based on modeling. Current rate of decline is zero and has been for some time. but “our models” say that won’t continue in the future hence the need to proclaim the sky is falling. Modeling is not true science. It may have it’s uses but it is not science.

john harmsworth
August 6, 2021 12:47 pm

Didn’t Antarctic Sea Ice hit a record high as recently as maybe 2014? To the best of my knowledge there is zero evidence of continual decline in the sea ice down there. I think this is an attempt to put cute critters on the cover of National Geolunacy or whatever they call it now.

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