Guest “USA, USA, USA!” by David Middleton
JULY 19, 2021
United States continued to lead global petroleum and natural gas production in 2020More petroleum and natural gas was produced in the United States than in any other country during 2020 (a trend that began in 2014), despite year-on-year declines from the record-high production in 2019. U.S. petroleum and natural gas output in 2020 totaled 66.9 quadrillion British thermal units (quads), which was more than both Russia’s 45.5 quads and Saudi Arabia’s 26.5 quads of petroleum and natural gas production.
[…]
Energy Information Administration
Note: Petroleum includes crude oil, condensate, and natural gas plant liquids
Time will tell if the Harris-Biden Dominion can reverse this pattern. So far, most of their efforts have been thwarted by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and U.S. District Judge Terry Doughty.
Oil prices have fallen back off of 6-yr highs since OPEC+ reached an agreement to steadily increase production back to pre-shamdemic levels by 2023. Even with today’s sell-off, oil prices have rarely been higher over the past 6 years.
And Goldman Sachs remains bullish on their oil price outlook…
Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecast Following OPEC Deal
By Tsvetana Paraskova – Jul 19, 2021The agreement which OPEC+ reached on Sunday is modestly bullish for Goldman Sachs’s forecast that Brent will hit $80 per barrel this summer, the investment bank said in a note after the group agreed to start adding 400,000 bpd production each month from August.
[…]
OilPrice.com
Oddly enough, the price roll-back will reduce the hedging losses that have plagued a lot of oil & gas companies this year. And that’s not the only “silver lining” to this “sow’s ear” (intentional mixed metaphor)…
OPEC will boost oil output — but don’t expect lower prices at the pump
BY SIMON HENDERSON, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR[…]
The good news is that there will be more oil on the market, which should ease prices, but the arrival of that oil is being phased in between now and the end of next year, so prices probably still will increase. At best they will remain sticky at the current high levels.
[…]
The lead story in Monday’s Wall Street Journal, headlined “OPEC, Allies Agree to Boost Oil Output,” reported that “The Biden administration … reached out to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates when those two OPEC members clashed over terms of a deal.” And, please note, the “allies” in this case are led by Russia — which may be OPEC’s ally but surely isn’t ours.
For the White House, even that mention is embarrassing while the domestic emphasis is on the green energy transition away from carbon fuels such as oil and natural gas. The awkward fact is that the world still depends on such fuels and will do so for quite a few years.
A Wall Street Journal analysis on July 13 about record natural gas demand noted also that the hot summer means production of hydroelectricity from dams is down and even “thermal coal hasn’t been as expensive in a decade.” While climate change is a priority, having electricity to light homes, power refrigerators and keep the fans whirling is a more immediate demand for much of the world.
[…]
Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Follow him on Twitter @shendersongulf.
The Hill
Addendum
The comments section of this post was the targett of a bot attack. The bots have been identified and banned.
My hope is that Biden et al do not screw things up irreparably before the next midterm.
Ideally, they would continue to reparably screw things up right up until Election Day 2022… 😉
“Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f*ck things up.”
— Barack Hussein Obama
The only time Obama was right about anything.
Well, he was speaking about his “lived” experiences!
Later about his woke experiences
He also said that under his plan the price of electricity would necessarily skyrocket.
Yep, I should have read further down
… and when he said “ under my policy energy prices will necessarily rise “
Mr. Idiot, can you provide a link to the source of that quote?
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/14/obama-biden-relationship-393570
LMAO @ Middleton…. “One Democrat” Hearsay from an unidentified democrat speaking to an unidentified source. . Middleton, you really need to do better than that.
Rumor has it that Trump’s mother was an Orangutan.
LOL
Rumor has it that you’re a trollish retard, who has already been banned under some other fake persona… Oh, wait… Not a rumor.
(I caught him, he is getting banned) SUNMOD
Logging in under multiple aliases, voting for itself and against every truth.
Just look at the sudden shift on +/- ratings for the multi-bots’ comments vs our comments… And compare that to the ratio earlier in the thread.
Numb nuts! This is what you asked for:
The source is the flamingly left-wing website Politico.
You didn’t provide a “source” just hearsay.
Good fracking grief!!! Are you so fracking retarded that you can’t read your own fracking post?
(Snipped because of personal details were visible) SUNMOD
ATTENTION MODS
You may want to remove the images as they reveal email addresses
They were bogus email addresses.
Apologies, David
Middleton trusts Politico?
(You are BANNED) SUNMOD
Unlike trollish retards, “Middleton” provided the answer to the retarded question that the other trollish retard asked.
(Snipped because of personal details were visible) SUNMOD
Yet “sleepy Joe” won the election.
Coups have consequences.
Trump’s coup failed.
So did you on your IQ test.
David, so who sent the army of trolls to populate the up/down votes?
http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/
Actually I don’t think the owner Alan Cheatham would ever stoop that low to attack a skeptical blog, I think the two banned used the URL because they are stupid.
I didn’t even think about that. I just saw it as a common denominator… 😎
G’Day David,
“IQ test”
A meme I laughed at. AOC walking down the street, “Great news, my IQ test came back negative.”
+42×102
Biden’s didn’t.
Had the media not been running an unprecedented level of interference in order to protect their candidate, there’s no way joe would have won.
Beyond that, there’s the unprecedented levels of corruption during the election and the counting of the votes.
Still no way dementia joe won.
His videos are solely viewed by the leftist press.
His speeches are attended by sparse dozens that include press, caterers, democrat leadership and a few delusional rats.
No -Trump lost the election!
Who is the “one democrat” Dave?
Not the question that the retard asked. But an unsurprising follow up from an even more trollish retard.
(Snipped because of personal details were visible) SUNMOD
The answer is a Politico article.
You didn’t answer the question Dave, who is the “one democrat?”
Politico is not a “who”, it is a “what.”
This is what a retarded bot looks like.
The same bot is hitting the +/- ratings on about half of the comments to this post.
David, I am on your side, but any newspaper can make up anonymous quotes. sure they look good, but trying to pretend they evidence obama actually said that does not help your cause.
The idiot asked for a link to the source of the quote.
True, robin, it’s not evidence Obama said that. And if the question was “can you show evidence Obama said that?”, you’d have a point. But that wasn’t the question asked. The actual question asked was “can you provide a link to the source of that quote?”. David correctly answered the question asked by providing a link to the politico article (the source) that the quote came from.
Robin, I don’t recall any denials by Obama concerning these reports.
joe, you’d need to ask Politico that question. David is merely providing the source of the quote (Politico) that the bot asked for.
Countdown to Bats Belford comments 3, 2, 1 …
AGAIN, avoiding actual business realities like the plague. I have found one US E&P that has had a statistically significant increase in market cap since the mid teens. Pioneer. Now, there MIGHT be others, but I can find 5 down, for every one you find up.
And feel free to checkout the oilfield servicers as well. Anyone who has actually made money on a rig floor knows that as they are the canaries in the coal mines w.r.t. the oil business.
https://companiesmarketcap.com/occidental-petroleum/marketcap/
Almost forgot. Some valuable advice from someone who’s been there. Aks your current/former employer to reprice any options you have yet to cash in. In the past, one of my employers did this when the stock price turned – er – unfortunate. If you’re still on the books, and if they say ok, you’re still useful to them. If not, visa versa, and time to hang out your “consulting” shingle and post on WUWT as much as you have recently.
You read as a bitter person 🤔
I’d say rancid. Would make you sick if you swallowed that crap.
Mr. bobo: Another self reply? May be time to hang out your “Space Available- Rent Free to Dave Middleton” shingle on your forehead, and comment at WUWT as much as you have recently.
Did you mean bigobobo?
Mr. K: I heard it in my head as “bob-o”, but bobo works too.
Will look for his return, but I may have gutted him.
Mr C: b.o.bob works as well
BOB, Don’t confuse actual oil production cited by DM with E&P market caps. The latter were formerly vastly distorted by stuff like ‘use it or lose it’ land leases back in the hayday before McClendon (Chesapeake) crashed and burned, literally. I made a lot of money shorting E&Ps since then. Only regret was not also shorting GE back when Immelt wanted to imitate Schlumberger. Now making cautious money on the long side again—a Joedementia play, at heart: cancel Trump methane dereg, cancel KXL, cancel Fed O&G land leases…up goes oil price, up go E&P share prices off their long bottom you noted.
Chesapeake CEO Aubrey McClendon on August 1, 2008…
Natural gas prices have been below $6/mcf since December 2008.
Market Cap ≠ Profitability… It doesn’t equal cash flow or EBITDA. It doesn’t even equal enterprise value, PV10 or other actual measures of a company’s asset value.
The entire industry’s market cap was knocked down by the 2015 oil price collapse and wave of bankruptcies, particularly in the shale sector.
Market cap is heavily influenced by oil prices:
And market sentiment:
Why is Denbury riding so high? CCUS.
United States continued to lead global petroleum and natural gas production in 2020
The the hard left wing of the Democrat party (most of them) probably doesn’t like that.
At least that’s what the Duck Test says.
The hard left wing is going to get a major wing feathers trim in 2022. They will not be able to fly at all thereafter. (A reference to my Patricia’s former Monk Parrot, Carly, whose wing feathers we had to keep trimmed just so that she could flutter to a soft landing off her perch, but not fly.) Almost Worst day of our life together was riding bikes with the parrot perched on Patricia’s shoulder past Birch State Park (on the beach in Fort Lauderdale a mile south of us), when all of a sudden Carly realized our bike speed meant she could ‘fly’ without flapping, took off, and landed in the densely sea grape wooded park. Took us three hours and bird treats to find and rescue her.
The thing is, Rud, that the HARD LEFTIST politicians almost all come from safe far left house districts. Most will still be with us and due to the leftist MSM will be front and center in the media driving the media agenda.
Look at CNN, etc. They continue to call TRUMP! a dictator while OBiden, Shumer and Pelosi attempt to force through a radical agenda with NO mandate from the 2020 election.
But although I am hopeful for the 2022 election, I do not think the GOP has the balls to do with a slim majority what the Democrat party does EVERY TIME they have any minimal margin. Still too many bought and paid for Chamber of Commerce RINOs.
The Henry Hub natural gas spot price rose today.
Natural gas storage levels remain below the five-year average.
“If something can’t go on forever— ….it won’t.”
-Herb Stein
Henry Hub natural gas spot price (1994- )
https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=FxYl
(EIA) Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states
Predicting oil and gas prices more than a few weeks into the future is a fools errand.
How many experts predicted that prices would double this year after COVID knocked the hell out of energy demand last year? And how many of those same experts predicted that a pandemic would occur last year and crater world wide energy demand?
The answers to both questions is the same – very near zero.
Stuff happens. Oil and gas are basic commodities that are entirely subject to world events and of course the law of supply and demand. Generally the world wants more hydrocarbon energy year after year, but in many years stuff happens, and demand swings wildly from one extreme to the other.
Weeks? Days are tough enough.
About 1/3 of 2021 US production is hedged at <$50/bbl. That sucks... But not hedging in 2019-2020 would have sucked even worse... 😎
There’s a lot of good things to be said about increasing production while continuing to reduce emissions. One not so good may be that an increased supply will make market manipulation and over-taxation more imperative for those “enemies, both foreign and domestic.”
Particularly for the domestic enemies.
DM,
With the domestic enemies obviously in foreign pay, and foreign self-declared enemies blatantly and deeply embedded in domestic affairs the distinction often seems blurred. Happily, in the text and intent of the oath, both sorts are included using a logical AND, so there is no inherent conflict in the clause.
Yeah… But the domestic enemies really piss me off… Because I assume foreigners are enemies until they prove otherwise… 😎
Fixed it for you.
There is no benefit to “reducing emissions.” Our emissions don’t cause anything “bad” to happen, that’s pure propaganda.
So, AGW, your position is that continuing proof that the propaganda is false is not a benefit?
Do you also assume that CO2 is the only emission from the production, combustion and industrial use of all fossil fuels?
Perhaps you also assume that sycophants and pedants shouldn’t at least be considered to possibly be in the enemy camp?
Trump did not leave office till 2021. Lets see where we are next year at this time. That would be news if we were still on top
The funny things are:
1) Oil prices took off right after Election Day.
2) Biden hasn’t actually accomplished anything to materially affect oil prices yet. Most of the price rise is on the perception that Biden will find a way to cripple the US oil industry. This will get much worse if Biden actually accomplishes any part of his energy agenda.
3) As long as Joe Manchin holds the line, the Republic will persevere.
On a side note, I love your segments on Larry the Cable Guy’s Weekly Roundup… That show makes my weekly Dallas-Houston commute thourghouly enjoyable…
👍👍
Reliable energy roars back from Covid-
Pandemic recovery to push emissions to all-time high – IEA (msn.com)
while the pollies face Mother Hubbards Cupboard from their Covid largesse-
Transport minister hints electric car grant will be scrapped entirely (msn.com)
Came for the energy sector review, stayed for the troll stomping! America will continue to be the energy leader only till Faux Joe Xiden can screw it all up, and he is trying. Trolls infesting comments proves America is leading still.
It was like whack-a-troll here last night… ⚒️
Fos sil fuels, Fos sil fuels, FOS SIL FUELS!