Jun 30, 2021
The sky isn’t falling, but scientists have found that parts of the upper atmosphere are gradually contracting in response to rising human-made greenhouse gas emissions.
Combined data from three NASA satellites have produced a long-term record that reveals the mesosphere, the layer of the atmosphere 30 to 50 miles above the surface, is cooling and contracting. Scientists have long predicted this effect of human-driven climate change, but it has been difficult to observe the trends over time.
“You need several decades to get a handle on these trends and isolate what’s happening due to greenhouse gas emissions, solar cycle changes, and other effects,” said Scott Bailey, an atmospheric scientist at Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, and lead of the study, published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. “We had to put together three satellites’ worth of data.”
Together, the satellites provided about 30 years of observations, indicating that the summer mesosphere over Earth’s poles is cooling four to five degrees Fahrenheit and contracting 500 to 650 feet per decade. Without changes in human carbon dioxide emissions, the researchers expect these rates to continue.
Credits: NASA/HU/VT/CU-LASP/AIM/Joy Ng
Since the mesosphere is much thinner than the part of the atmosphere we live in, the impacts of increasing greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, differ from the warming we experience at the surface. One researcher compared where we live, the troposphere, to a thick quilt.
“Down near Earth’s surface, the atmosphere is thick,” said James Russell, a study co-author and atmospheric scientist at Hampton University in Virginia. “Carbon dioxide traps heat just like a quilt traps your body heat and keeps you warm.” In the lower atmosphere, there are plenty of molecules in close proximity, and they easily trap and transfer Earth’s heat between each other, maintaining that quilt-like warmth.
That means little of Earth’s heat makes it to the higher, thinner mesosphere. There, molecules are few and far between. Since carbon dioxide also efficiently emits heat, any heat captured by carbon dioxide sooner escapes to space than it finds another molecule to absorb it. As a result, an increase in greenhouses gases like carbon dioxide means more heat is lost to space — and the upper atmosphere cools. When air cools, it contracts, the same way a balloon shrinks if you put it in the freezer.
This cooling and contracting didn’t come as a surprise. For years, “models have been showing this effect,” said Brentha Thurairajah, a Virginia Tech atmospheric scientist who contributed to the study. “It would have been weirder if our analysis of the data didn’t show this.”
While previous studies have observed this cooling, none have used a data record of this length or shown the upper atmosphere contracting. The researchers say these new results boost their confidence in our ability to model the upper atmosphere’s complicated changes.The team analyzed how temperature and pressure changed over 29 years, using all three data sets, which covered the summer skies of the North and South Poles. They examined the stretch of sky 30 to 60 miles above the surface. At most altitudes, the mesosphere cooled as carbon dioxide increased. That effect meant the height of any given atmospheric pressure fell as the air cooled. In other words, the mesosphere was contracting.
Earth’s Middle Atmosphere
Though what happens in the mesosphere does not directly impact humans, the region is an important one. The upper boundary of the mesosphere, about 50 miles above Earth, is where the coolest atmospheric temperatures are found. It’s also where the neutral atmosphere begins transitioning to the tenuous, electrically charged gases of the ionosphere.
Explore an expanded version of this infographic.
Even higher up, 150 miles above the surface, atmospheric gases cause satellite drag, the friction that tugs satellites out of orbit. Satellite drag also helps clear space junk. When the mesosphere contracts, the rest of the upper atmosphere above sinks with it. As the atmosphere contracts, satellite drag may wane — interfering less with operating satellites, but also leaving more space junk in low-Earth orbit.
The mesosphere is also known for its brilliant blue ice clouds. They’re called noctilucent or polar mesospheric clouds, so named because they live in the mesosphere and tend to huddle around the North and South Poles. The clouds form in summer, when the mesosphere has all three ingredients to produce the clouds: water vapor, very cold temperatures, and dust from meteors that burn up in this part of the atmosphere. Noctilucent clouds were spotted over northern Canada on May 20, kicking off the start of the Northern Hemisphere’s noctilucent cloud season.
Because the clouds are sensitive to temperature and water vapor, they’re a useful signal of change in the mesosphere. “We understand the physics of these clouds,” Bailey said. In recent decades, the clouds have drawn scientists’ attention because they’re behaving oddly. They’re getting brighter, drifting farther from the poles, and appearing earlier than usual. And, there seem to be more of them than in years past.
“The only way you would expect them to change this way is if the temperature is getting colder and water vapor is increasing,” Russell said. Colder temperatures and abundant water vapor are both linked with climate change in the upper atmosphere.
Currently, Russell serves as principal investigator for AIM, short for Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere, the newest satellite of the three that contributed data to the study. Russell has served as a leader on all three NASA missions: AIM, the instrument SABER on TIMED (Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics), and the instrument HALOE on the since-retired UARS (Upper Atmospherics Research Satellite).
TIMED and AIM launched in 2001 and 2007, respectively, and both are still operating. The UARS mission ran from 1991 to 2005. “I always had in my mind that we would be able to put them together in a long-term change study,” Russell said. The study, he said, demonstrates the importance of long-term, space-based observations across the globe.
In the future, the researchers expect more striking displays of noctilucent clouds that stray farther from the poles. Because this analysis focused on the poles at summertime, Bailey said he plans to examine these effects over longer periods of time and — following the clouds — study a wider stretch of the atmosphere.
By Lina Tran
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center,
Greenbelt, Md.
Last Updated: Jun 30, 2021
Editor: Lina Tran
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
I bought a cheap blanket at a flea market, it’s only 400ppm wool.
I really hate when they try to explain radiative heat transfer in “layman’s terms” but use a conductive heat transfer analogy.
“That means little of Earth’s heat makes it to the higher, thinner mesosphere.” actually all of it eventually reaches there. It may be slower but it ALWAYS gets there and is NEVER “trapped” …
Although I prefer the word “accumulated” over “trapped” they mean the same thing in this context. The context being the law of conservation of energy which states that dE = Ein – Eout. When dE > 0 the energy is said to have been “accumulated” or “trapped” within the system. The dE of the climate system over the period 1960-2019 is about 350e21 joules. Therefore the climate system “accumulated” or “trapped” 350e21 joules. This energy NEVER made it to the mesosphere. See Schuckmann 2020 for details.
Any idea of exactly what device measured this number of joules?
Any idea of exactly what this amount of joules translates into temperature wise?
Any idea of exactly where this energy is being stored?
From the study:
“Contemporary estimates of the magnitude of the Earth’s energy imbalance range between about 0.4 and 0.9 W m−2 (depending on estimate method and period; see also conclusion) and are directly attributable to increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activities …”
Seems funny that this is all due to CO2 from human emissions. You might elucidate on what clouds contribute to this imbalance. From my research, the uncertainty of cloud effects far outweigh this small amount.
The publication provides details and further references regarding questions 1 and 3. For question 2 you can use the formula dT = dE * (1/M) * (1/c) where dE is the change in energy, M is the mass of the reservoir, and c is the specific heat capacity of the reservoir. You can use the formula dM = dE / dH where dH is the enthalpy of fusion to see how much ice this would melt.
You didn’t answer my questions. I asked them for a reason. You are showing big numbers but apparently have no idea what they mean in real numbers. Big numbers make for good propaganda, but are not really useful in showing what the real world effects are.
Maybe if you could tag the photons.
Is there anything global warming doesn’t make colder?
LOL.
“As the sun goes to solar minimum, the solar heating of the atmosphere decreases, and a cooling trend would be expected,” said Russell.
https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/appearance-of-night-shining-clouds-has-increased
Putting the cart before the horse or the ozone hole scare. They should not throw BLAME out there before they have the full story they admit they don’t have. For all anyone knows the gasoline engine could be holding off the next ice age or not.
Don’t hear much about the ozone hole lately although we NOW know it changes naturally. And it cost a lot of money installing new air conditioners in vehicles via the US Congress.
However the research is interesting without exaggeration.
It has been oscillating in recent years from record lows to record highs. One year they claim that the stratospheric weather is evidence that the ‘ozone hole’ is healing, and then they claim that the record high is evidence Chinese manufacturers are cheating. It is always about CFCs and never about the polar vortex or stratospheric temperatures.
“Combined data from three NASA satellites have produced a long-term record that reveals the mesosphere, the layer of the atmosphere 30 to 50 miles above the surface, is cooling and contracting.”
“Together, the satellites provided about 30 years of observations, indicating that the summer mesosphere over Earth’s poles is cooling four to five degrees Fahrenheit and contracting 500 to 650 feet per decade.”
So let’s see – at a minimum altitude of 158,400 feet (5280 x 30), the mesosphere has contracted 1,950 feet (650 x 3). That means that over the 30-year study period the mesosphere has contracted by 1.2% (1950 / 158400).
One point two percent? Over thirty years? Is that even something that can be accurately measured? What is the uncertainty?
Or better yet – who cares?
Direct answer to your bottom-line question: those that rely on Government funding.
What is the margin of error there?
It’s pretty hard to keep the heat down here. Look at all the holes in my quilt!
Does this mean that the stratospheric hot spot has been memory holed?
Stratospheric hot sop.
What is that????
The tropical tropopause?
I think you mean the mid-troposphere tropical hotspot.
“You mean the mid-troposphere tropical hotspot that isn’t there.”
Fixed it
If the decrease in heat flow from the planet were actually as large as these guys think it is, there should be a huge, easily measurable increase in the rate at which the planet is heating. Many times larger what has been measured.
I suspect they are attributing the affects of a quieting sun, to CO2.
Isn’t most of stratospheric heating due to ozone absorbing energy from cosmic rays? Could a reduction on cosmic ray flux or ozone be a factor?
Reflect about UV radiation
That is, UV-visible spectrum of radiation from the Sun!
They can get back to me when they have actual proof humans are causing climate to change. Till then they are just spewing the same leftarde environista lies.
When air pressure is low, CO2 actually helps the atmosphere radiate heat.
If concentrations are increasing in the mesosphere, I would expect the mesosphere to cool, and it has nothing to do with how much heat is coming up from below.
Mark W
True but there are lots of reasons for cooling other than CO2 increasing slightly. This article said “Together, the satellites provided about 30 years of observations, indicating that the summer mesosphere over Earth’s poles is cooling four to five degrees Fahrenheit and contracting 500 to 650 feet per decade. Without changes in human carbon dioxide emissions, the researchers expect these rates to continue.”
There is no proof that the increase in CO2 is human caused. There is no correlation of emissions and atmospheric concentration. Additionally, the tropospheric hot spot predicted by the GCMs for increasing CO2 does not exist so I don’t think we should expect the cooling mesosphere to stop cooling if humans find a way to provide their power needs without emitting CO2.
so the long term trend is essentially a function of how they stitched the three satellite records together and we must trust them because all scientists are fair and objective searchers of TRUTH.
I may have believed that before we saw ClimateGate emails.
And the method by which the above-mentioned “scientists” are able to distinguish that it’s man-made increases in emissions of CO2 instead of naturally-occurring increasing emissions of CO2 that are causing the upper atmosphere cooling and contraction is . . . ???
Or, what? . . . anyone think that nature alone over the past 600 million years has not resulted in swings in atmospheric CO2 concentration ranges from a low of about 200 ppmv to a high of around 7000 ppmv*?
(*reference paleoclimatology reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 levels by C.R. Scotese and R.A. Berner)
Sounds like bullshit to me! I’m prepared to wait a year or two for solid confirmation.
“That means little of Earth’s heat makes it to the higher, thinner mesosphere.”
How exactly does less heat get into the upper atmosphere? Unless the Sun is producing less light, it still hits the Earth and gets radiated back into space. Are they really claiming the Earth is absorbing energy and not re-emitting it?
“As a result, an increase in greenhouses gases like carbon dioxide means more heat is lost to space”
Huh??? But they just said little heat gets to the upper atmosphere!
“At most altitudes, the mesosphere cooled as carbon dioxide increased.”
OH! Well, if there is correlation then of course one causes the other!
“but also leaving more space junk in low-Earth orbit.”
Ah! So more CO2 results in more space junk…OK, time to ban all fossil fuels then.
“We understand the physics of these clouds”
ROFL
“The only way you would expect them to change this way is if the temperature is getting colder and water vapor is increasing,” Russell said. Colder temperatures and abundant water vapor are both linked with climate change in the upper atmosphere.”
Well of course they, there can be no other explanation…because you want it to link to CO2 in the atmosphere. Great science there – start with an answer and back your way into explanations that support it.
I really am disgusted with NASA these days.
I bet there are many dedicated NASA people who would love to see their agency disconnect the GISS parasite.
It’s the first test of the cooling excuse engine.
Now that there is insight to the level of true prescience!
The upper atmosphere has been contracting due to the low solar cycles…
Randy Marsh: “By now, the global warming has shifted the climate, bringing on a new ice age. Within the hour, the temperature outside will fall to over 70 million degrees below zero!”
We didn’t listen!
Earth’s upper atmosphere expands from the heat, and contracts when it’s been released. The fluctuation corresponds with the sun’s own solar wind cycles…./
ehhh…ehhh….ohhh….
It is globally cooling…..
Seems you are right:
Mate,
like you, maybe even love you, but got to ask this of you,
in consideration of your comments… and claims of yours offered;
Do you really know what ‘nihilism’ really is or what it may really mean???
Nihilism, begets ‘Nihilism’!
Just sayind and asking too.
Did you just hear / learn a new word and poudly present it here ?? 😀
That is me in full, as contemplated.
Be real, if you can,
That is all..
Do you dislike me?
Krishna,
the very fake one, Krishna.!
Oh well, it is just a playground, is not it!
Satellites DO NOT interact with the Mesosphere. The lowest possible circular satellite orbit is about 93 miles (150 km) high. A satellite cannot stably orbit below that level without propulsion because of atmospheric drag. The Mesosphere’s highest point is far below that altitude at 50 miles where the air is much denser. Once an object’s orbit decays to 50 miles it will reenter within minutes. The statement that the Mesosphere’s (putative) shrinking will increase space junk is pure bunk – a statement fabricated to (falsely) make it seem that there will be a bad consequence from CO2’s effect on the Mesosphere.
Concerning satellites, they interact with the thermosphrere, and the thermosphere is shrinked now because of missing UV radiation thanks low solar activity. It’s explained above in a link to spaceweather.com and the TCI explanation.
Yes, the thermosphere is above the mesosphere.
10 hours and 88 comments later, and not a single post by “Racehorse” Nick Stokes claiming how inaccurate all microwave sounding units of satellite temperature measurements of the earths atmosphere are.
Radiosonde measurements aboard balloons can never make it into the mesosphere, so mesosphere satellite measurements can never be independently correlated.
You’d think Nick would jump all over that immediately, but instead, crickets.
“Scientists have long predicted this effect of human-driven climate change, but it has been difficult to observe the trends over time.”
and
“This cooling and contracting didn’t come as a surprise. For years, “models have been showing this effect,” said Brentha Thurairajah,…”
So radiation physics made a successful prediction. The cooling of the stratosphere and mesosphere has nothing whatever to do with “human-driven climate change.”
It has to do with human CO2 emissions, which have increased stratospheric [CO2]. CO2 following collision with a (very rare) O2 or N2 will uptake of some kinetic energy and become vibrationally excited.
The excited CO2 will radiate that energy off into space and revert back down into its ground-state energy. So, the stratosphere cools because total K.E. is lessened.
Calling this an effect of climate change is forcing a square pseudo-science plug into round physics box.
And, pace Brentha Thurairajah, but it doesn’t take climate models to predict that effect. It takes basic radiation physics.
None of these people are behaving as scientists. They’re all acting as AGW advocates, touting the politically required subjectivist narrative.
Pat, I thought the article’s reference to noctilucent clouds seemed familiar and, sure enough, I found a series of articles posted on the subject during 2019-20 on Dr. Roy Spencer’s blog. Like you, he didn’t ascribe anything nefarious to the recent prominence of these clouds, just the impacts of CO2, methane and, of course, lower solar activity.
Good catch, Frank, thanks. These people never seem to lose an opportunity to betray scientific ethics.