Guest “yawn” by David Middleton
Study blames climate change for 37 percent of heat deaths worldwide
“These are deaths related to heat that actually can be prevented. It is something we directly cause,” an epidemiologist said.May 31, 2021
By The Associated PressMore than one-third of the world’s heat deaths each year are due directly to global warming, according to the latest study to calculate the human cost of climate change.
But scientists say that’s only a sliver of climate’s overall toll — even more people die from other extreme weather amplified by global warming such as storms, flooding and drought — and the heat death numbers will grow exponentially with rising temperatures.
Dozens of researchers who looked at heat deaths in 732 cities around the globe from 1991 to 2018 calculated that 37 percent were caused by higher temperatures from human-caused warming, according to a study Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change.
[…]
About 35 percent of heat deaths in the United States can be blamed on climate change, the study found. That’s a total of more than 1,100 deaths a year in about 200 U.S. cities, topped by 141 in New York. Honolulu had the highest portion of heat deaths attributable to climate change, 82 percent.
[…]
NBC News
The study by “dozens of researchers” is pay-walled.
“Heat death numbers will grow exponentially with rising temperatures”
Why aren’t they already growing exponentially?
“More than one-third of the world’s heat deaths each year are due directly to global warming”
So… We must be having less cold-related deaths… Right?
“Honolulu had the highest portion of heat deaths attributable to climate change, 82 percent.”
According to the CDC, from 1999-2016, there were so few heat-related deaths in Honolulu County, that a reliable death rate can’t be calculated. That’s the entire island of Oʻahu. Due to data use restrictions, I won’t post the actual number or even the link to the dataset. However, if you Google (or Duck Duck Go) “CDC WONDER,” you can spend hours wading through more causes of death than I ever knew existed.
Even funnier…
“And now for something completely different…”
This “problem” was solved over 20 years ago…
Abstract
Heat is the primary weather-related cause of death in the United States. Increasing heat and humidity, at least partially related to anthropogenic climate change, suggest that a long-term increase in heat-related mortality could occur. We calculated the annual excess mortality on days when apparent temperatures–an index that combines air temperature and humidity–exceeded a threshold value for 28 major metropolitan areas in the United States from 1964 through 1998. Heat-related mortality rates declined significantly over time in 19 of the 28 cities. For the 28-city average, there were 41.0 +/- 4.8 (mean +/- SE) excess heat-related deaths per year (per standard million) in the 1960s and 1970s, 17.3 +/- 2.7 in the 1980s, and 10.5 +/- 2.0 in the 1990s. In the 1960s and 1970s, almost all study cities exhibited mortality significantly above normal on days with high apparent temperatures. During the 1980s, many cities, particularly those in the typically hot and humid southern United States, experienced no excess mortality. In the 1990s, this effect spread northward across interior cities. This systematic desensitization of the metropolitan populace to high heat and humidity over time can be attributed to a suite of technologic, infrastructural, and biophysical adaptations, including increased availability of air conditioning.
Davis, Knappenberger, Michaels, and Novicoff, 2003
“The answer is blowing in the…” window
Reference
Davis, R. E. , Knappenberger, P. C. , Michaels, P. J. , & Novicoff, W. M. (2003). Changing heat‐related mortality in the United States. Environmental Health Perspectives, 111(14), 1712–1718. 10.1289/ehp.6336 [PMC free article] [PubMed] [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
At what point exactly do actual scientists stand up and say BS. Reports like this denigrate the term “scientist” to the point of ridicule.
Experts said the earth was the center of the universe and anyone who disagreed was ridiculed and potentially killed.
Do the current crop of “highly educated” science students wish to be ridiculed for the sake of going along with the phony consensus?
The very definition of science calls out the mistaken statements and blatant lies made here and elsewhere.
Maybe that’s why there are no names here? Just “experts” and “scientists”?
For the very same reason we cannot believe the panicked, stress inducing, breathless news reports and social media posts on Covid death statistics.
If he/she/it stopped moving from march of 2020 up to and including the current date it was recorded as Death by Covid. Plus whenever it could possibly be documented they died after the failure of a respirator it meant an additional $3900.00.
“No. Honest. Officer Muldoon will confirm that the passengers were all being transported to the hospital on the outside chance that placing them on a respirator might save their life when the driver lost control and it careened over the guard rail and into the ravine. COVID killed them just before the bus introduced them to the rock bed below.”
“Yawn” says it all.
Thank you David.
Tony Heller has made a very nice video covering this topic.
Thanks for the link. GREAT video!
Only 37%?
I thought it’d be more like 97%!
(Maybe Lew and Cook should look into this.)
2 is a 100% increase over 1 and 41 is about 35% of 125.
Such small numbers don’t compare to the thousands
lost anually to cold because they can’t afford heat
Taken a step further, maybe since many more die from cold than from heat, they should calculate the number of lives saved due to the warming of winters, and offset that against the supposed heat related deaths, and we’d be coming out ahead!
Nicely put; I’ll remember that argument.
Cold attributed 63% of weather related deaths. Alternative title and We could fix this by releasing more co2!
Utter absurdity. Climate refugees would be fleeing Florida if hot weather was any kind of a problem. Instead, Florida has net immigration from other states.
Humans are tropical apes, we need to wear clothes to stay warm, outside the extreme tropical zone where we evolved.
We’d get arrested for indecent exposure if we didn’t, & it wouldn’t just be the Arctic ice that would shrink!!!!!!! Brrrr!!!!! 😉
“We’d get arrested”
politics, not physics.
Right on, Eric. All of those persons leaving New York for Florida are not suicidal, they are looking for a better environment, both climate and politics.
Funny you say that .. virtually ALL of the human migration in the United States is from northern tier state to southern tier states.
Besides, the abstract above is so full of BS I couldn’t even finish reading it, let alone want to read anything behind their pay wall.
The first assertion they make that is absolute BS is that most weather related deaths in the US are due to “heat” (heat is a worthless term by the way, it is temperature that matters to the human body).
Everybody knows that deaths due to a wide variety of weather related phenomena greatly outnumber deaths due to “heat stroke” – again, a not very descriptive term used by lay people. Fires, floods, storm surge, high winds, lightning strikes, hypothermia ALL greatly outnumber deaths by heat stroke in the US. And even heat stroke is not caused per se by high atmospheric temperatures, rather it is a loss of the body’s ability to control its own temperature typically brought on by failure to maintain body fluids and electrolytes that finally exhausts the ability of the body to regulate its internal body temperature at 98.6 deg F.
It is frankly far easier to feel cool and properly regulate one’s body temperature as long as one stays in the shade and wears proper clothing and properly hydrates themselves, than it is to stay warm in very cold and windy weather.
NOTE: NONE of which are “caused by climate change (TM),” despite all the propaganda to that effect!
The phrase I was responding to was “weather related deaths” and the authors’ claim – which is utter BS – that heat causes more weather related deaths than any other kind of weather phenomena, which is not just wrong, but preposterous on its face. Hurricanes, floods, fires, ice storms, cold, etc. are all weather phenomena, and cause vastly greater human fatalities than actual heat related deaths.
For comparison sake, annual deaths in the USA due to heat stroke average 400, while annual deaths in the USA due to hypothermia average 1,500.
The BS term “heat related deaths” is one of those extremely elastic and utterly meaningless terms that can be asserted to mean anything a government agency or warmist propagandist chooses it to mean. Like “I was hot outside so I plugged in my room air conditioner in an overloaded 120VAC outlet and my house burned down killing my grandmother in bed upstairs.” That is a “stupidity related death” not a “heat related death”.
The only direct cost of human fatality due to heat – and as I wrote above, not solely related to temperature, not “heat” – is “heat stroke”. “Heat stroke” is brought on by failure to stay in the shade and properly hydrate oneself, and is well documented to occur even on relatively cool days typical of Alaska in July, and not necessarily Arizona of Florida in July.
Heat stroke occurence has zero to do with global warming and everything to do with stupidity … the flip side of “doesn’t have the sense to come in out of the rain”.
There is only hot and cold “heat” related deaths. So if 37 percent hot then 63 must be cold. Unless there is third one that causes death
“Humans are tropical apes, we need to wear clothes to stay warm, outside the extreme tropical zone where we evolved.”
Which is a good thing, as most people you really don’t want to see naked. Just saying.
I do my part to keep America beautiful. I wear long pants in the summer.
In climate science, the words “scientists say” is only exceeded by the words “an epidemiologist said” as an indicator that the subject research paper is junk science.
Yep. At some point the real truth will emerge. The main drivers behind climate catastrophe are air conditioners and heating – huge contribution to UHI and making humans less adaptable to warmer or cooler temperatures.
Uh yeah – they’re eeevvillll! sarc
Real stats mean nothing to these drongos. Even if there were some minor attribution, is there any mention of UHI – they refer only to cities.
Associated Press ?? Has Seth Goebbelstein stopped putting his name on trash like this.
Well Seth, if you did type the rubbish, I’m not surprised you’re embarrassed.
Edit: Well it actually was him. The climate liar with the biggest megaphone:
https://apnews.com/article/climate-climate-change-science-environment-and-nature-f0b4baded0e335035fdb1ba8c8f65e53
“… and the heat death numbers will grow exponentially with rising temperatures.”
And the “Brood X” cicadas that were due late April to mid May here have yet to appear. (Warm ground temperature dependent emergence).
I guess the delay must be due to “Climate Change” instead of “Global Warming”?
At Anderson, IN we’re supposed to be in the zone where the greatest emergence is to occur this year but have not heard a one yet. But this week I’m driving between Marion, IL and Memphis, IN all week and passing through S Indiana today where there are various State parks and the Hoosier National Forrest I heard them in several places. So I reckon they’re coming.
I’ve seen them in central Kentucky but no racket yet
Still waiting for the Cicadas in my neck of the woods too.
As for the “exponential growth” in heat-related deaths with rising temperatures, I call bullshit (is there such a thing as “bullshit squared? If so, then that!). As David’s post shows, deaths have declined in the face of rising temperatures, not risen, since the “Ice Age Cometh” 70s.
The true irony is, if the Climate Fascists manage to get their proposed “cure” (NOT) for the imaginary “crisis” in place, the unreliable and extremely expensive electric grid may have exactly the effect they propose, but it will be from the failure of the electricity supply, the inability of people to afford the higher prices, or both, NOT from an imperceptible increase in the “average” temperature, which isn’t killing anybody.
I sent an email to Seth Borenstein of the Associated Press asking if the figure is exactly, precisely 37.0000% (to four decimal places) or is it closer to 37% +/-150%.
Borenstein and the Associated Press are unlikely to reply. I don’t think they “do numbers.” In fact, I suspect they’re probably innumerate.
AP is actually my home page. Other than when this calculator dodger posted his usual sh!te, it was OK, mostly left of center but readable. It’s not quite full-on libtard now, but I think I’ll be making a change.
Is getting old an underlying factor?
If global warming is causing heat-related death, we should be dropping like flies here in the upper Midwest. The rise in temperatures we get every single year from January to July should be devastating. We go from below freezing in January to temperatures in the 80’s (Fahrenheit) in Summer.
It’s going to get into the 80’s later this week after a lot of below average temperatures earlier this Spring. The hospitals here in Wisconsin should be overwhelmed.
Heat deaths in Honolulu? Seriously? How does anybody survive all Summer in Phoenix, AZ?
On Saturday there was a frost warning in MN and my buddy’s early tee time was delayed…Cripes was that a cold weekend
Yup. Thursday and Friday last week for cold as heck for late May.
“Heat related deaths” is the squishiest of all possible classifications, capable of being made to mean anything, everything, and nothing, all in the same analysis or sentence of a stupid abstract or media article.
There is only one single direct cause of human death due to excessive heat, and really, it is not even that, just one of several contributing factors and excessive heat is not actually a requirement, for “heat stroke”.
If tourists are too stoopid to properly hydrate and stay out in the sun all day without proper headware, then yes they are more likey to die of heat stroke.
As a long time Floridian we see horribly sunburned tourists by the thousands every year here, so I imagine the same thing occurs in Hawaii.
There may not be a ‘Climate Emergency’ but there is certainly a Stupidity Emergency in science.
“Can’t fix stupid” someone declared.
LMFAO. That says it all, right there.
Would be even better if the van were electric and plugged in to the generator.
And I see the Tesla service trucks in pour neighborhood – Ford Transit vans.
“our”, not “pour” Duh.
😎
At first read I thought you meant “poor”.
But there wouldn’t be many Teslas or Tesla service trucks there!
Better yet, have the Auto Club van driver towing tandem trailers of solar panels and blocking two lanes of traffic to set them up.
If 37% more people died from the increased temperature how many didn’t die because of the higher minimum temperatures. Cold is a killer too ( arguably more so than heat). Surely the number who died from the cold must have declined.
SHHHHH
Great minds think alike. And cold IS, not arguably, but IS much more of a killer than heat; actual death statistics show this without any doubt.
The MSM controls the narrative by design. Some would like to claim it’s because it helps them secure audience but the fact is if they promoted the opposite tack they’d get the same results. No?
Interesting claim because we know cold is the bigger killer.
Globally, 20 times more people die from cold than heat.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150520193831.htm
I’ll tell this story again.
I grew up on a vineyard in northern Victoria, Australia. We harvested manually and I would spend most of the day picking up 8 kg (18 pounds) buckets of grapes and flipping the contents in a winery bin. 2 tons to a bin and some days, in my later teen years, I would fill ten of them. Mean maxima were 32 C or 90 F. If it went over 40 C, we rested during the worst of the heat. It was very dry so wearing light cotton clothing and a hat to keep the sun off, and drinking plenty of water, it was nothing to complain about.
I came home for the summer while at university and found a job in the local dried-fruit packing factory. Last season’s crop hadn’t been processed so we had to pick up 16 kg of dried sultanas coming out of the hopper and flip them into crates for storage. Two of us flipping the buckets and one stacking the crates after filling. We would do 40 tonnes in an 8 h day. Actually easy work after getting the hang of it, but the second day was a record breaking day. It reached 47 C a couple of hours after the mid afternoon start. No aircon or fans and under a tin roof, but very dry air so drinking enough water and sweating kept every one from frying. Eventually, though, my arms cramped and we walked off.
My parents worked very hard in the hot sun so when I told them what happened, they insisted that I apologise for walking off when I came back the next day. Of course, the foreman apologised profusely for not stopping us from working earlier. It was a bit stupid.
The point of the story is to highight how dumb (you or your boss) or ill you need to be to perish in high heat. Humidity makes things a lot worse but we can cope. Deaths seem to be of the elderly unable to care for themselves or people pushing themselves in the heat to keep going. So do we decarbonise the economy or have as siesta?
Meanwhile, that 47 C day was an official record at the AP since the mid 40s. The old post office site recorded two consecutive days over 50 C in 1906. The monthly record for Feb and Dec were 49 C. Not recorded in Stevenson Screen but still likely to have been at least 47 C if they were.
You’ve gotta have water, but water without electrolytes, and I mean more than salt, during extended physical exertion in such heat is a formula for heat cramps. Continuing to work even with the cramps sets one up for heat exhaustion which can take days to recover from.
Those two heat injuries may or may not present before a person suffers heat stroke. Heat stroke is a potentially fatal injury where the hypothalamus fails to properly regulate the sympathetic nervous systems physical reactions to regulate the bodies temperature. IOW the body’s temperature regulating system goes haywire.
Heat Stroke can result in permanent damage to the hypothalamus, other parts of the brain, and/or other organs such as the liver which is the bodies largest heat sink, and thus result in permanent disability.
Obviously people with heart conditions, diabetes, or other problems with circulation are more susceptible to all of the above.
I’m not recommending working so hard but I did a full days work the next day with no distress. I should have stopped earlier. I did at the first sign of difficulties, although the cramps came as a surprise and a scary one. The story is of how much it takes to cause so much distress to kill a healthy adult. Do you decarbonise the economy or deal with the danger on the few heat waves that always happened? I’m not saying that the decision not to work that day didn’t need to have been made. Definitely should have and it did appear that the foreman got a good bollocking by management.
I recall the 2003 lie about the “30,000 dead from heat wave over Europe”.
Death certificate reporting was no where close.
80% of everything told… is depressingly a lie.
And 87.2% of all statistics are made up
…and most of these deaths occurred in the winter at night because that’s when most of the warming occurs? Not you say? hmm.
wattsupwiththat.com › 2019/04/30 › analysis-of-new
Apr 30, 2019 · This has been told many, many times. Global warming is not global. It is mainly over land and not over sea. It is mainly in the Northern Hemisphere and not in the Southern Hemisphere. It is mainly during winter and not during summer. And it affects mainly minimal (night) temperature and not maximal (day) temperature.
Wait up. I thought the warming in ‘Global Warming’ was from higher nighttime temperatures, not from higher daytime temperatures.
So… 37% died from moonstroke?
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.
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I want to see those death certificates where the cause of death is listed as “Global Warming.”
I suppose my death certificate will read, “Died while waiting to see a death certificate with cause listed as Global Warming.”
“1,100 deaths a year in about 200 U.S. cities, topped by 141 in New York. Honolulu had the highest portion of heat deaths attributable to climate change, 82 percent.“
That’s 1100/200 = 5.5 per city average. The earlier study put heat related deaths in the US at about 40 per city, so looks like air conditioning in old folks homes has improved the stats.
Honolulu 82% of heat deaths caused by climate change? Why do I get the idea someone is a BSer. I don’t think Hawaiians are that fragile.
The entire state of Hawaii has a record high temperature of 100F recorded in 1931. That happens to be the same record high the state of Alaska recorded in 1915.
Weather must be similar in both states so feel free to visit either one. Although, I think Alaska has the edge on extraordinary winter weather.
Here are the records for all the states.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec/records
“The entire state of Hawaii has a record high temperature of 100F recorded in 1931.”
And isn’t it usually breezy in Hawaii? So that 100F wouldn’t be so bad.
“Honolulu had the highest portion of heat deaths attributable to climate change, 82 percent.”
From NOAA:
“Since 1950, temperatures across the Hawaiian Islands have risen by about 2°F, but the warming has levelled off in the most recent two decades”
So according to the data over the last twenty years there has been NO increase in temperatures. Temperature change has actually been falling over the Hawaiian islands since the start of there study.
Logically they must be making it up, how else can they justify their results.
I worked in the yard today. I got hot, I took a break and I didn’t die. Most likely 100% of heat related deaths are from people not taking precautions.
The older I get, the more I like heat. I’m 74, and a couple of years ago we went down to Arizona. One day, it was 103 degrees out. I felt fine in the sun — I could feel the heat, but it wasn’t uncomfortable. I’m still into running, and I’ll go for a run when it’s in the 90s and also feel fine (of course, I live in Colorado, and it’s kind of dry out here). However, the cold goes right through me. I asked my doctor why I always feel cold, and he said, “You ain’t got any body fat”.
I’ve helped pay for this nonsense:
… Head of our Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, Professor Yuming Guo, has collaborated with international colleagues on a major study which shows for the first time the actual contribution of man-made climate change in increasing mortality risks due to heat …
According to the study across Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney of all warm weather deaths 0.63% were specifically attributable to human-induced climate change.
The causal links human activity -> warm weather -> excess deaths are tenuous to say the least.
The study implies that the uneven effects across countries would be alleviated by rising incomes.