Reposted from a NOAA email.
May 20, 2021 NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters predict a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. However, experts do not anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen in 2020.
For 2021, a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher) is expected. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. The Atlantic hurricane season extends from June 1 through November 30.
“Now is the time for communities along the coastline as well as inland to get prepared for the dangers that hurricanes can bring,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. “The experts at NOAA are poised to deliver life-saving early warnings and forecasts to communities, which will also help minimize the economic impacts of storms.”
Last month, NOAA updated the statistics used to determine when hurricane seasons are above-, near-, or below-average relative to the latest climate record. Based on this update an average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which 7 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently in the neutral phase, with the possibility of the return of La Nina later in the hurricane season. “ENSO-neutral and La Nina support the conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Predicted warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon will likely be factors in this year’s overall activity.” Scientists at NOAA also continue to study how climate change is impacting the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones.
“Although NOAA scientists don’t expect this season to be as busy as last year, it only takes one storm to devastate a community,” said Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator. “The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are well-prepared with significant upgrades to our computer models, emerging observation techniques, and the expertise to deliver the life-saving forecasts that we all depend on during this, and every, hurricane season.”
In an effort to continuously enhance hurricane forecasting, NOAA made several updates to products and services that will improve hurricane forecasting during the 2021 season.
- In March, NOAA upgraded the flagship Global Forecast System (GFS) to improve hurricane genesis forecasting and coupled GFS with a wave model extending ocean wave forecasts from 10 days out to 16 days. Additionally, Global Positioning Satellite Radio Occultation (GPS-RO) data are now included in the GFS model, providing an additional source of observations to strengthen overall model performance.
- Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are now using an upgraded probabilistic storm surge model – known as P-Surge – which includes improved tropical cyclone wind structure and storm size information that offers better predictability and accuracy. This upgrade extends the lead time of P-Surge forecast guidance from 48 to 60 hours in situations where there is high confidence.
- NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory will deploy its largest array of air and water uncrewed systems to gather data designed to help improve hurricane intensity forecasts and forecast models. New drones will be launched from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that will fly into the lower part of hurricanes, and in the ocean, saildrones, hurricane gliders, global drifters, and air-deployable technology – called ALAMO floats – will track various parts of the life cycle of tropical storms.
Last year’s record-breaking season serves as a reminder to all residents in coastal regions or areas prone to inland flooding from rainfall to be prepared for the 2021 hurricane season.
“With hurricane season starting on June 1, now is the time to get ready and advance disaster resilience in our communities,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. “Visit Ready.gov and Listo.gov to learn and take the steps to prepare yourself and others in your household. Download the FEMA app to sign-up for a variety of alerts and to access preparedness information. Purchase flood insurance to protect your greatest asset, your home. And, please encourage your neighbors, friends and coworkers to also get ready for the upcoming season.”
NOAA also issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern and central Pacific basins, and will provide an update to the Atlantic outlook in early August, just prior to the peak of the season.
Visit FEMA’s Ready.gov to be prepared for the start of hurricane season and the National Hurricane Center’s website at hurricanes.gov throughout the season to stay current on watches and warnings.
| NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Twitter, Facebook and our other social media channels. Visit our news and features page. |
May 20, 2021 NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season
Has NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center ever not predicted another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season?
No penalties for abject failure. Government paycheck. Virture signaling underwritten. Moveable goalposts. No refs.
The weather forecasters for the most part do good work at a difficult workplace that offers them little credibility. News hacks, appointees, and grandstanders, not so much.
Can’t speak for the rest of the world but here in the States we could start calling our News Bureaus “The Fear Factor” with a motto of “No hobgoblin too small. No Alarm bells too frequent or Loud” Buzz around the newsrooms “We must keep those public school indoctrinated peasants stirred up.”.
Bill, WIth you! Our British cousins once called media announcers “news readers,” at around the same time we were calling them “talking heads.” I keep wondering when it was we started giving them any credence at all?
Cheers,
It would be interesting to compare their past prophecies with what actually happened. Of course NOAA should do this themselves- to prove how good their prophecies are.
I looked at NOAA’s predictions and also CSU (Colorado State University) for comparison, since 2000.
They make several predictions throughout the season of course, I just looked at the predictions for August.
One thing to note straight off the bat is that NOAA hedge their bets by issuing a number range, for example in 2020 for “Named Storms” they predicted between 19-25.
CSU give their prediction straight, one bet, they said 24. There was actually 30.
So NOAA do get some right, but it’s certainly more by luck than judgement.
The 3 predictions are for the number of “Named storms”, “Hurricanes”, “Major Hurricanes”
So for what it’s worth, here are the results (correct prediction in bold):
YEAR NOAA CSU ACTUAL
2000 11.07.03 11.07.03 15.08.03
2001 9/12.6/8.2/4 12.07.03 15.09.04
2002 7/10.4/6.1/3 09.04.01 12.04.02
2003 12/15.7/9.3/4 14.08.03 16.07.03
2004 12/15.6/8.2/4 13.07.03 15.09.06
2005 18/21.9/11.5/7 20.10.06 28.15.07
2006 12/15.7/9.3/4 15.07.03 10.05.02
2007 13/16.7/9.3/5 15.08.04 15.06.02
2008 14/18.7/10.3/6 17.09.05 16.08.05
2009 7/11.3/6.1/2 10.04.02 09.03.02
2010 14/20.8/12.4/6 18.10.05 19.12.05
2011 14/19.7/10.3/5 16.09.05 19.07.04
2012 12/17.5/8.2/3 13.05.02 19.10.02
2013 13/19.6/9.3/5 18.08.03 14.02.00
2014 7/12.3/6.0/2 10.04.01 08.06.02
2015 6/10.1/4.0/1 08.03.01 11.04.02
2016 12/17.5/8.2/4 15.06.02 15.07.04
2017 14/19.5/9.2/5 16.08.03 17.10.06
2018 9/13.4/7.0/2 12.05.01 15.08.02
2019 10/17.5/9.2/4 14.07.02 18.06.03
2020 19/25.7/11.3/6 24.12.05 30.14.07
NOAA, 13/20 for major hurricane predictions
10/20 for hurricane predictions
10/20 for named storms
CSU, 6/20 for major hurricane predictions
1/20 for hurricane predictions
2/20 for named storms
(apologies for the dodgy format but I’m supposed to be working 🙂 bah it’s Friday)
wow….that’s unreadable.
well you get the jist,I hope.
and even if they get it dead wrong they are still right….70% chance
re: NOAA predicting the number of “named storms” – who names the storms?
Their mommas!
Well, I tried to help with the formatting using the source code option in the editor, but that wasn’t happening. Was going to take too long to manually enter line breaks.
“Has NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center ever not predicted another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season?”
That was the first question that popped into my mind when I saw this article.
I don’t recall NOAA ever predicting a below-normal hurricane season activity.
I saw an article the other day talking about how NOAA had upgraded one of the 2020 hurricanes from a CAT 2 to a CAT 3.
Every update and change NOAA makes should be a cause for suspicion as to the motives for the changes. They have a “hotter and hotter” bias and it shows.
Must be getting colder is it?
The NOAA website has a March 31, 2021 featured news article on climate change making tropical cyclones (TC) stronger. Their analysis is based on upward TC trends from 1980. Starting the analysis earlier will show no upward trend. Lies from our government.
I don’t gamble, but if no one agreed on what normal meant, what does 60% chance of above normal mean? What does near-normal mean? Do you bet on the jockeys, the trainers, or the horse nobblers near the stables?
…also, what constitutes defining the 2020 season as record-breaking?:
“Last year’s record-breaking season serves as a reminder to all residents in coastal regions … to be prepared for the 2021 hurricane season.”
2020 – 30 named storms 31 TC’s >51 billion in damages
2005 – 28 named storms 31 TC’s 171 billion in damages.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_season
2008 49.42 billion, with inflation beat 2020.
2009 58 billion
2012 72.32 billion
2017 294.34 billion
2018 50.205 billion
nooapro. – That would be greater-than-near-normal- for-things-that-there-is-no-standard-for-comparison, apparently.
“Last year’s record-breaking season”
So, another lie from NOAA.
Tom, I must attempt to be consistent, even when it is painful, for me. I tried the other day to get another commenter to reflect on the word lie, even when, as now with you, I agreed with him in spirit. Hyperbole is not truthful, but it is not lying. Think of it more as salesmanship, cheerleading, or free verse, or maybe even aspirational as a certain naiive Irish-Latina politician is apt to do.
But ridicule is good for hyperbole too. It tells them we know what they’re up to, and don’t believe them. Fire when ready!
Cheers,
“Hyperbole is not truthful, but it is not lying.”
If someone says something that is not truthful, and they know it is not truthful, then they are a liar.
If you know the hyperbole is a lie, then the person that does that is a liar. If they don’t know their hyperbole is a lie, then, they are just seriously misinformed, and are not lying because they don’t know any better.
That’s the way I look at it.
“Normal” is an entirely misleading term to use with any and all weather events, or climatic changes.
It is entirely “normal” to experience wide even extreme variations in weather phenomena, whether it is tropical storm events, daily high and low temperatures, precipitation events, wind speeds, etc. It is normal because it always happens every day all over the world forever and forever.
Weather reporters and forecasters claim to be “scientists” yet use such prejudicial and obviously incorrect language as “normal” when they clearly should know better. It is correct to refer to averages, such as an average number of tropical storms, or the average daily high temperature, or the average daily rainfall. Better yet to list average and also variability (a 95% confidence interval of the measured variability). Sure, the average Joe or Jane on the street may not be familiar with statistics and standard deviations, but how hard can it be to say that the average number of hurricanes per season in the Atlantic is X number of storms, or hurricanes plus or minus Y. Pretty much anybody can grasp that.
I totally agree that “normal” is a term that up to be avoided. I’m on board with the suggestion that Satish prediction should be relative to an average, while conceding that the calculation of that average is far from trivial, but I agree that the average Joe on the street who knows almost nothing about statistics, will nevertheless appreciate that a prediction that the number of storms will be above the long-term average is not the same as saying it’s not going to be a “normal” year.
Stephen,
Same thanks offered to you as to Duane. I do not recognise the term Satish. Help me to understand.
Thanks,
Duane, I was being a little (o.k., a lot) facetious, but you’ve given a sincerely worded, and better educated answer that I haven’t earned. Thanks.
Big Joe ?
Care to go over Weatherbells’ forecast ?
TIA .
Which are what? Why should I have to research your assertion? You should provide references here to prove you are not just a troll.
Mr Istvan, I don’t assume to speak for Joe Bastardi .
I know he has a forecast ; don’t want to misstate it .
Weatherbell.com .
Hopefully Joe has time to speak about their forecast .
I would like to hear from Joe myself, on his future hurricane forecast,
Joe knows what he is talking about. NOAA lies to us for political/career purposes so we cannot count on their forecasts.
This is great news! If they’ve predicted a very active season, that almost guarantees it’ll be quiet. It’s like the BoM here in Australia. When ever they predict an upcoming “dry” or “hot” season, it almost always turns out wet and cold (and vice versa).
Yup.
The BOM predicted an above average cyclone season this last summer. What did we get? Very little.
I have not had much success with the BOM & cyclone forecasts.
1980 I had 6 charter boats + the island boats from Happy Bay, Long Island, Whitsundays, up a mangrove creek hiding from an in coming cyclone. We had 60/70 knots winds for a few hours, then it went totally still. Obviously the eye.
The BOM were still telling us the eye was 60 odd nautical miles to the north east & some hours away. We & others were telling them we were calm, but they were reading a particularly strong squall in the eye wall to the north east as the eye. They couldn’t believe the eye could be 60 NM in diameter.
Fast forward to 85. Watchuing another cyclone out in the Coral Sea for a few days. Wednesday morning at 6.00 AM the BOM tell us it is at least 48 hours away. 11.00 AM it’s getting rough & we hear a call for help. A couple of bareboat charter yachts are in trouble off North Mole. They can’t make headway. I grab the island ferry & go fetch them. Fortunately the amature skipprers are pretty competent,tow ropes around props in rough weather is pretty dangerous.
It takes 2 hours to get them the 4 miles to Shute Harbour by about 2.30. By 3.30 the sun is out, the wind is down, the cyclone is past. If it weren’t so dangerous the BOM would be an expensive joke.
no government agency would dare predict a milder whatever season- heads would role if they did, especially now
I don’t know ayone who cares about the prediction. There could be only one and if it hits your area and you are not prepared you are in trouble.
Or we could have hurrican activity like we had after the Katrina hurricane of 2005. After Katrina, no major hurricanes (Cat 3 or higher) hit the United States for 12 years.
NOAA didn’t predict that.
True, however it doesn’t take a Cat 3 or higher to damage power lines. If your area loses power for 4 to 5 days you had better be able to take care of yourself. And forget about charging your e-vehicle.
> I don’t know ayone who cares about the prediction
I do. I’m now retired but I worked for a large reinsurance company. I totally appreciate your salient observation that an individual living in a potential hurricane area cannot use the prediction in a meaningful way. The thought that they might decide to get prepared if it’s going to be an above average year but not if it’s a below-average year would be bad decision-making.
In contrast, a reinsurance company who will pay for much of the damage from hurricanes, is intensely interested in the aggregate amount for planning purposes. That said, we had our own internal models for projection which were far more refined than NOAA predictions, so the NOAA predictions weren’t treated as useful information for planning purposes, but relevant information for discussion with clients who might be more familiar with NOAA predictions than more sophisticated models.
Is that a NOAA prediction or a Wish List?
NOAA is hoping for more “climate emergency” talking points.
Definitely! All the alarmists are hungry for talking points. They have so few of them, that they resort to making them up.
we are already forecasting a hit on the Texas coast tomorrow night from a feature in the western gulf, named or not squalls to tropical storm force are likely. Feature in the Atlantic is just yet another named event over cold water that originated out of the northern branch, weatherbell.com forecasts impact, and here is our April forecast with the Impact areas. We put out our numbers first in March, then the areas we feel most likely to be hit in April. https://www.weatherbell.com/april-2021-hurricane-forecast-update. Also in the forecast is last years forecast and results. Hope you will look
Well, give the noaa a chance. From Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook, Item #2 calls the Guff storm
It is “named” number 2, by the way. Which is to say, not named.
(personal note :If you don’t like Guff for Gulf, I will refer you to my late Mother-in-law for correction. That is the way it is pronounced. Whatever you were told up North was wrong.)
I predict that Hurricane Mindy will be a complete b1tch in response to being given such a dreadful name.
I dread the day when Hurricane Hillary makes landfall.
I have done some work in this area and would like to make them available here.
As for NOAA they do have some good people there. Knutson for example. He has laid out some rational rules for credible research on tropical cyclones one of which is that no credible evidence of climate change impact can be proposed with data from a single cyclone basin as for example the North Atlantic. Data from all 6 basins over a period of many decades is needed, he says. A summary of the Knutson paper is included in the linked document below.
https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/30/list-of-posts-on-tropical-cyclones/
How will they redefine the named storm convention to ensure this year is a new record?
Because that is all that matters.
Can it possible be worse than last year?
Give them a break. They’ve only been using “named storm” for a short time. Like ocean acidification, they’ll need more practice inflating the term into something scary.
The only really important term is land-falling hurricane, of which there were very few last year, regardless how bad they said the season was.
“The only really important term is land-falling hurricane,”
Absolutely, and as far as I can work out there is no trend in that statistic.
They are frightening people into believing things are always getting worse, the reality is there not.
It is easy to get a “record-breaking” season when you name storms that would not have been named 5 years ago. Already NOAA is threatening to name a storm near Bermuda that is over waters too cool for a tropical storm. Last season, several storms were named and then de-named in under 24 hours. Many names are based on a satellite, and not on actual, factual measurements of any kind. Just because it looks like a tropical storm does not make it so.
Expect NOAA to be trigger happy again this season.
“Already NOAA is threatening to name a storm near Bermuda that is over waters too cool for a tropical storm”
As I asked elsewhere: who names the storms?
I predict that I will plant 6 celebrity tomato plants in 2022.
Look at that, I was right!
Is there any place that analyzes how accurate NOAAs predictions have been for the past 25 years?
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane-archive.shtml
This is their archive of outlooks.
Wikipedia have a page dedicated to every year’s hurricane season with NOAA’s predictions and actual activity.
Example:
2005: The updated outlook calls for an extremely active season, with an expected seasonal total of 18-21 tropical storms, with 9-11 becoming hurricanes, and 5-7 of these becoming major hurricanes.
Actual activity 28-15-7
And after 2005, no Cat 3 or higher hurricane hit the United States for 12 years. NOAA’s predictions for those 12 years would be interesting reading.
I don’t think they predict landfall hurricanes Tom.
“NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions. Hurricane landfalls are largely determined by the weather patterns in place as the hurricane approaches, and those patterns are only predictable when the storm is within several days of making landfall.”
Ana, Bill, Fred, Grace, to Wanda….. those sound like an awful lot of “whiteness” to me. As an experiment to see some “wokeness”, someone should troll NOAA on Twitter about all those white hurricane names to see if they cave and go woke.
Tell NOAA we need hurricane names like Devonte, Lemarcus, Lucinana, Martina, Shanice, Moeisha, etc. And then they also need gender neutral names like Kayden or Jayden, etc. The trolling would be fun to watch them go woke over the issue. Like nature cares what names we humans give a tropical low pressure system.
Especially a system that acts, in part, like the planet’s lungs and cooler combined.
What I want to know is what does NOAA have against using names starting with the letters “Q” and “U”? There must be lots of good names starting with those letters. “Hurricane Ulysses” anyone?
If they use names like “Bill” or “Fred” perhaps they should refer to those as “himmicanes”
Did you hear that they retired the greek names, apparently because the were “too confusing”?
Hey come on give our friends at NOAA a break. At least they are only wanting to name storm force windy periods. Our European mind manipulators want to name every breeze capable of fluttering a leaf on an Aspen tree, after some person or other.
Long gone are the days when a weather forecast from the BBC would utter words like “a breezy day is expected tomorrow” or “light winds will make it a perfect day to dry the washing”. Now we have storm (pick a name) coming be prepared. The constant challenge the team have is to decide if it will be an amber warning or just a warning.
They (the alarmists) are desperate to big up the mundane/normal and create anxiety where none needs to be.
“Hey come on give our friends at NOAA a break. At least they are only wanting to name storm force windy periods. Our European mind manipulators want to name every breeze capable of fluttering a leaf on an Aspen tree, after some person or other.”
The Weather Channel tries to implement that kind of named thunderstorm nonsense, but I don’t think any local meteorologist uses names for thunderstorms. The United States does just fine without naming every rainstorm that blows by.
They have also been naming winter storms but I don’t think anyone else bought into it.
‘The historic level of storm activity seen in 2020’. What on Earth are they talking about?
They are lying.
Somewhere around 2015 the naming of storms went woke. Whereas earlier naming was based on windspeed and atmospheric pressure at the center, nowadays they name a storm if it is expected to impact on our daily life. Hence when it may inconvenience someone somewhere. No prizes for knowing that there are now many more named storms in a season than before. This clearly is confusing the gullible.
In other news, I had my speedometer replaced. Before the dial went to 90m/h, the new one goes up to 120. I now have a faster car.
Hurricane activity will be high with increasing solar activity and a cold equatorial eastern Pacific.
Galactic radiation indicates that the magnetic strength of the solar wind remains low. It can be seen that it is weaker than in 2010-11, at the beginning of the 24th solar cycle.
There they go again using loaded language.
There is no such thing as a “normal” hurricane season. There is a statistically “average” hurricane season, but it is entirely “normal” to have a wide range of variability in the numbers, locations, and severity of tropical storms.
Same thing with temperature. Weather reporters keep talking about “normal” temperature, or “normal humidity”, “normal winds”, “normal rainfall”, and it is all just as misleading.
It is always “normal” to have wide ranges of variability in any weather or climate measurement.
We need to combat this selective use of prejudicial language, which obviously attempts to place entirely normal weather events as “abnormal”, which is nothing short of a lie.
““Now is the time for communities along the coastline as well as inland to get prepared for the dangers that hurricanes can bring,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo.”
Oh. What were they thinking before now? I mean. They’re communities along the coastline, for Christ’s sake.
She is from Rhode Island and went to Harvard. She apparently has no knowledge of how long people have been preparing for hurricanes. Just clap trap BS verbiage to make it look like she is intelligent and on top of things.
That’s astoundingly clueless.
So, maybe there are more storms or not. But even if there are more storms- what counts is human and material damage. I’ve seen Tony Heller explain how there is far less such damage- despite there being a lot more people and things to damage than several decades ago.
Tornado frequency in Oklahoma is way down this year so far.
We like it like that! More Global Warming please! 🙂
Well, this is the same agency that predicted a wetter than normal winter for MI and we not only didn’t have a wet winter we are already in drought. They have now predicted a 30% chance of a wetter than normal June—August, our normal drought.
NOAA and NWS couldn’t predict 5 o’clock at 4:30. They are as bad a CDC.
When you slap a name on every single low pressure system of course it is going to be an active season. The whole point is to drive the US population further into a state of perpetual panic, and they are succeeding, wildly.
Anyone have a chart that shows the accuracy of their predictions?
Saw this from Ryan Maue on Twitter just recently
Ryan Maue on Twitter: “This is the 20th year that Subtropical Storms get named off the same list as tropical storms e.g. Ana. Previous to 2002, unless the storm attained tropical status, these outlier storms were not named.
NOAA manipulates the stats to create a false reality for the rest of us.
NOAA recently upgraded a 2020 Cat 2 hurricane to a Cat 3 hurricane. I wonder how that change affected the standing of 2020? One more major hurricane to report in 2020 thanks to the adjustment.
What would NOAA and NASA Climate do without climate adjustments? Answer: They would have to report the truth then. No more scary stories to tell. Nobody hanging on their next pronouncement. Lonely. No more grants. Poorer. No more accolades. Loss of self-worth.
“Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive!” (Sir Walter Scott, 1808).
NOAA and NASA Climate are spinning away. Unfortunately, their “tangled web” is costing the people of the world $Trillions of dollars in wasted spending trying to control CO2 output when there is no evidence that CO2 requires controlling.
“For 2021, a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)”
39 MPH?? That’s a slightly breezy day here in the Straits of Juan de Fuca.
That is one white sounding group of names. Why no Shaniqua or Shaq or Trayvon?
Lacking any Jose or Abdul or xzytrfxgm for that matter. get with it name guys.