Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s Blog
May 2nd, 2021 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2021 was -0.05 deg. C, down from the March, 2021 value of -0.01 deg. C.
REMINDER: We have changed the 30-year averaging period from which we compute anomalies to 1991-2020, from the old period 1981-2010. This change does not affect the temperature trends.
The global cooling impact of the current La Nina is being fully realized now in global tropospheric temperatures.
The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).
Various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 16 months are:
YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST
2020 01 0.42 0.44 0.41 0.52 0.57 -0.22 0.41
2020 02 0.59 0.74 0.45 0.63 0.17 -0.27 0.20
2020 03 0.35 0.42 0.28 0.53 0.81 -0.96 -0.04
2020 04 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.35 -0.70 0.63 0.78
2020 05 0.42 0.43 0.41 0.53 0.07 0.83 -0.20
2020 06 0.30 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.26 0.54 0.97
2020 07 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.28 0.44 0.26 0.26
2020 08 0.30 0.34 0.26 0.45 0.35 0.30 0.25
2020 09 0.40 0.41 0.39 0.29 0.69 0.24 0.64
2020 10 0.38 0.53 0.22 0.24 0.86 0.95 -0.01
2020 11 0.40 0.52 0.27 0.17 1.45 1.09 1.28
2020 12 0.15 0.08 0.22 -0.07 0.29 0.43 0.13
2021 01 0.12 0.34 -0.09 -0.08 0.36 0.49 -0.52
2021 02 0.20 0.31 0.08 -0.14 -0.66 0.07 -0.27
2021 03 -0.01 0.12 -0.14 -0.29 0.59 -0.78 -0.79
2021 04 -0.05 0.05 -0.15 -0.28 -0.02 0.02 0.29
The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly image for April, 2021 should be available within the next few days here.
The global and regional monthly anomalies for the various atmospheric layers we monitor should be available in the next few days at the following locations:
Lower Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
Mid-Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tmt/uahncdc_mt_6.0.txt
Tropopause: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/ttp/uahncdc_tp_6.0.txt
Lower Stratosphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tls/uahncdc_ls_6.0.txt
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So since 1998 what is the temperature anomaly?
…for global temps?
The current calculated global temperature is about 0.1C BELOW the average 21st century anomaly.
The Pause that refreshes continues then. If Warmunists run true to form, they will first deny that it exists, then as it continues, they will dust off the old dog-ate-my- global warming excuses.
La Nina plus solar minimum plus AMO turn equals a wake up call.
Why do we never see the USCRN temperatures?
E. Martin
I had some idle time, and generated anomalies for UAH CONUS and USCRN data (out of GHCN daily) wrt a common period (2005-2019):
April 2021 for CRN isn’t in yet.
J.-P. D.
Thanks again for showing that UAH and USCRN have brought the pre-1979 (coldest year in 100 years, in case you didn’t know) fabrication and adjustment of US data under control.
Desperate time for rabid warmistas like you, hey bin-liner.. 😉
I wonder if the main stream media will report this?!
Crickets . . .
Since the UAH change from month to month often mirrors the HadSST3 change with a 5-6 month lag, we can expect a high likelihood of additional cooling in May and June. After June we should see a moderation until the next ENSO change occurs. As we can see the SSTs have already started to warm a bit.
https://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst3gl/from:2014/to/plot/hadsst3gl/from:2014/to/trend
Most ENSO predictions at this time of year have poor track records. We should know more in a month. If we do fall back into La Nina conditions over the last half of the year, then the Lord Monckton pause will start to get very long. A 10 year pause by the summer of 2022 is a possibility.
Keep in mind that we will not see substantial cooling unless the oceans start to cool. I don’t see that happening soon.
CMIP comparison is just brutal
yikes
TallDave
If I were you, I’d quickly go to KNMI, generate the same stuff with RCP4.5 for the Globe as a whole, and compare again.
Because if even a McKittrick manages to have a rather different picture when comparing models with HadCRUT4
https://www.rossmckitrick.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/model_obs_comp_nov_2019.pdf
then there might well be something slightly wrong in John Christy’s graph.
J.-P. D.
Bindidon
Thanks for the link.
If I were you, I’d quickly go out and notice the difference between Hadcrut4 data (McKittrick’s graphic) and the satellite and balloon data (Christy’s graphic) as a whole, and compare again.
Frank from NoVA
Thanks for the hint, but… the difference between UAH and HadCRUT visible here among other series
can by no means explain the difference between Christy’s and McKittrick’s graphs.
Best regards
J.-P. D.
Funny that GISS on the web shows up the GISS lies.
Shows several years after 1998 El Nino peak as being warmer than 1998, not in UAH.
…..and a 0.4 – 0.5 C increase from the 1998 El Nino peak to the 2015 peak when UAH shows only 0.08C difference.
And of course , there are the MASSIVE CHANGES to GISS, always cooling the past to increase the trend
Your warmista scummer mates in action. !!
Ankle biter aka fred250
Why are you so aggressive all the time?
Why do you show always one side of the medal?
Did you never observe how bigger the changes between UAH5.6 and UAH 6.0 have been in 2015, in comparison with the ‘huuuuge‘ GISS adjustments?
Why can’t you accept the little ‘warming’ changes made to GISS?
I have NO PROBLEM to accept the big ‘cooling’ changes made to UAH!
https://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/uah6/mean:12/plot/uah5/mean:12
J.-P. D.
ROFLAMO
The rabid alarmista want to compare a non-data fabrication (HadCrud) that has been specifically adjusted to show un-real warming to match the farcical climate models.
And is probably so self-unaware, that he doesn’t notice what sort of clown act that is.
you misread the graph, Bindidon, it’s quite definitely not a global temperature
tropical mid-tropo
the temperatures most sensitive to CO2 forcing
culprit could be Willard’s emergent tropical thunderstorms, but at this point who knows really
TallDave
Correct, my bad.
When I have some more idle time, I’ll try to generate CMIP tropics data in KNMI, and compare that with UAH6.0 and the RATPAC-B Tropics subset.
Thanks for the hint on my mistake.
J.-P. D.
What about the effects the effects of the jet stream producing the colder temperatures this year in the northern hemisphere? When I look at a jet stream map today(Monday) of Edmonton, Calgary and points south it shows that the bulk of the jet stream is south of these locations therefore pulling down the colder northern air. Same for the UK.
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/global-jetstream#2021/05/03/0000Z/jetstream/surface/level/overlay=jetstream/orthographic=-6.72,57.59,712
Watch for de-fund the satellites in the new meanness and dirty tricks zone.
Global warming isn’t the only thing in decline…..
TV And Online News Audiences Declined During Biden’s First 100 Days: Report (yahoo.com)
I guess the daily pounding of the senses with global warming news is having an impact–unplugging!
I am a glad nature is proving the alarmists wrong but the implications of a significant cooling trend are negative for humanity.
No discernible trend would be just fine by me.
No, the cycles have a statement to make here.