Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
For the last couple of decades since I started seriously studying the climate, I’ve been hearing Americans of all kinds claiming that the United States is suffering terribly from “global warming”. Over and over, from American educators, government officials, and media, the claim is made that the US is heating up fast, and that the dreaded and endlessly warned of US Thermageddon is just around the corner.
So I decided to do some research. There is a bunch of gridded surface temperature data out there, typically on a 1° latitude by 1° longitude grid. So first, I had to figure out just which gridcells are in which countries. That involved what we used to call a “SMOP”, a “small matter of programming”, which only took about a day of locating the country borders data and then actually writing the code to convert it to a usable form … but at the end of it, I knew which gridcells are in which countries.
Then I pulled up the temperature information from Berkeley Earth and from the CERES satellite data and graphed it up … here’s the result:
Figure 1. Temperature trends for what in Alaska is called the “Lower 48”, meaning the US less Alaska and Hawaii.
Cooling … not warming.
Now, before anyone starts yelling “But that’s just the contiguous US, not the globe!”, yes, I know that. I’m just saying that if you think the US temperature has gone up over the 21st century, you’re wrong. The US has cooled over that time.
And this reveals a deep truth, which is that if it were not for accurate thermometers, hundreds and hundreds of US surface temperature station sites, and satellites, we’d never know if the US had warmed or cooled over the last two decades … the changes are far too small and too widespread for our human senses to register. Millions of US citizens have been firmly convinced that the US has been warming in the 21st century, when in fact it has been cooling.
That’s it. Short and sweet. And no, it’s not an April Fools joke, it’s actual data.
Not only is it April Fools Day today, but it’s also my gorgeous ex-fiancee’s birthday, so we’re going for a lovely bike ride for a birthday treat.
My very best wishes to all,