Fake Hurricane News Exposed: Average Day Of First Hurricane Formation “Contrary To Media Reports”

Reposted from the NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin on 20. March 2021Share this…

Lazy, uncritical media again fail to adequately examine data to produce misleading “news”

Tropical storm expert Dr. Ryan Maue analyzed data on whether or not climate change was leading the first named hurricane occurring to be earlier and earlier each year, thus meaning a longer hurricane season, as the media have recently claimed.

Media falsehoods exposed again

Maue wrote: “Turns out contrary to media reports today, the average first day of hurricane formation has become LATER on average almost 12-days comparing 1950-1970 to 2000-2020.”

At Twitter Dr. Maue posted the following chart going back to 1950:

Chart: Dr. Ryan Maue

As the chart shows, the first named hurricane has in fact been tending to occur a bit later, and not earlier. Rather than tending to start in July as they did in the 1950s, today they are tending to start in early August.

Media trick of starting at 1980

Relying on results produced by the trick of starting in 1980, the media reported an earlier and earlier start date, Maue points out.

Chart: Dr. Ryan Maue

We know that CO2 emissions rose from 1950 to 1990, and so applying alarmist CO2 theory, the first named hurricane would be expected to occur earlier and earlier in the year. But instead it trended to start later and later during the 1950 to 1990 period, meaning it has little or nothing to do with CO2.

“Artificially inflated”

Overall Maue called the “fixation on ‘named storms’ and lengthening the season” a “waste of time.” He notes that the data for the first hurricane is “highly variable data” and that there has been “no significant trend — 2 days down over past 20-years.”

He sums up: “The whole ‘named storms’ trends is artificially inflated w/o a meaningful connection to climate change.”

Washington Post’s earlier “massive error”

This reminds us of how last year the Jeff Bezos-owned Washington Post published another alarmism-fraught article on how there supposedly was a “slower decay of landfalling hurricanes in a warming world.” Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. responded saying that there was a “massive error” in the Nature paper, which the Washington Post had uncritically cited.

“Says it shows hurricanes decaying slower over land post-landfall (more damaging). But they forgot to remove storms that landfall & then go back over the ocean,” Pielke

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Oldseadog
March 21, 2021 6:04 am

The old seaman’s rhyme was
June, too soon;
July, stand by;
August, blow-it-must;
September, remember;
October, blows over.

Bryan A
Reply to  Oldseadog
March 21, 2021 11:04 am

Seems to follow a fairly Up-Down Seesaw pattern with only a few exceptions. Those being years with a stall-jog on the way back to the high spike. Following a similar pattern would place this year on a high spike at about day 230 or 240 and would place the first of 2021 on or about August 18

Joseph Zorzin
March 21, 2021 6:49 am

Off subject, sorry- but don’t miss this.

“The Red-Green Menace”

Last edited 23 days ago by Joseph Zorzin
Scissor
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
March 21, 2021 7:51 am

Within ten years, China will face several negative impacts from an upside down age demographic resulting from its past one child policy. China will continue to experience an excess of males to females and population will decline as deaths exceed births.

There is no question that the CCP intends to be the dominant global power and it has plenty of useful idiots to help support its agenda. Don’t bet against the human spirit of freedom, however, even within China.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Scissor
March 21, 2021 4:07 pm

“Don’t bet against the human spirit of freedom, however, even within China.”

A very important point to keep in mind.

IAMPCBOB
Reply to  Tom Abbott
March 21, 2021 4:48 pm

Possibly within the next 50 to 100 years! Sorry, but at my age I don’t have that long to wait!

Tom Abbott
Reply to  IAMPCBOB
March 22, 2021 6:48 am

Sometimes things can happen fast.

alf
Reply to  Scissor
March 21, 2021 5:09 pm

The Chinese have a long memory. They have not forgotten the opium wars and the European colonization of parts of China. Neither have they forgotten the horrific cruelty of the Japanese in Manchuria.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  alf
March 22, 2021 6:47 am

Everybody has a long memory.

Paul Penrose
Reply to  alf
March 22, 2021 9:19 am

Hopefully they will never forget the 10’s of millions killed by Mao either.

commieBob
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
March 21, 2021 8:20 am

Ten years ago, we might have looked at the above video as paranoid. Today, there’s ample evidence that it is right on.

The video is worth the 21 minutes it takes to watch. Canada, Australia, and Japan have been victims of China’s bully boy tactics. China doesn’t feel it can stick it to America … yet. That day may, or may not, come but if it doesn’t it won’t be for lack of desire on China’s part.

commieBob
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
March 21, 2021 8:30 am

When I saw Red Green, the first thing I thought of was the Red Green Show. Red Green was indeed a menace but mostly to himself.

Frederick Michael
Reply to  commieBob
March 21, 2021 8:54 am

You forget how prophetic Red Green was. Remember the Possum Lodge pledge?

“I’m a man, but I can change.”

R Taylor
Reply to  Frederick Michael
March 21, 2021 12:17 pm

“I guess”

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  R Taylor
March 21, 2021 1:37 pm

“…If I have to.”

Anon
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
March 21, 2021 9:39 am

Thanks for that.

The current generation of Progressive Democrats have no ability to question their own vision of the future; it is as if they have discovered some new law of human nature. And this Solipsistic Stockholm Syndrome, has caused them to make epic blunders, as what happened in Ukraine and the Crimea in 2014:

Obama’s Hazy Sense of History

He also believes history follows some predetermined course, as if things always get better on their own. Obama often praises those he pronounces to be on the “right side of history.” He also chastises others for being on the “wrong side of history” — as if evil is vanished and the good thrives on autopilot.

Another of Obama’s historical refrains is his frequent sermon about behavior that doesn’t belong in the 21st century. At various times he has lectured that the barbarous aggression of Vladimir Putin or the Islamic State has no place in our century and will “ultimately fail” — as if we are all now sophisticates of an age that has at last transcended retrograde brutality and savagery.

A Pollyannaish belief in historical predetermination seems to substitute for action. If Obama believes that evil should be absent in the 21st century, or that the arc of the moral universe must always bend toward justice, or that being on the wrong side of history has consequences, then he may think inanimate forces can take care of things as we need merely watch.

h**ps://www.nationalreview.com/2014/08/obamas-hazy-sense-history-victor-davis-hanson/

And so the decarbonization of the West can continue unabated and without consequence, as such action is on the “right side of history”. And the bubble they all live prevents them from engaging with realists:

Middle East, Ukraine, China – What Went Wrong? | John Mearsheimer

https://youtu.be/6NZSok_l_Hk

And as they can’t sell their vision on the merits (because it does not conform to reality) they have moved on to things like: regime changes, color revolutions, rigged elections, bogus investigations, meritless impeachments… (amazing actions from people whose vision is a “just and harmonious 21st Century one world government”, no?)

So, we might see tampering with the climate record as just another symptom… if you can’t cope with reality, you simply change reality… and hope nobody notices.

Last edited 23 days ago by Anon
Drake
Reply to  Anon
March 21, 2021 5:15 pm

So, we might see tampering with the climate record as just another symptom… if you can’t cope with reality, you simply change reality… and hope nobody call anyone who notices a DENIER.

There, fixed it for you.

Ron Long
March 21, 2021 7:09 am

The mainstream media is in the business of selling doom and gloom, based on the old saying “if it bleeds it leads”. I fact check many times per day (and still get some things wrong), but when you are selling a narrative you avoid facts. Here’s another example of fools in a hurry, Don Trump Jr. posted a funny video about President Biden tripping and falling on the stairs to Air Force One, involving his father, and the mainstream media are calling it aggressive and malicious, when in reality Don Trump Jr has just tricked the mainstream media into showing President falling on the stairs.

Climate believer
Reply to  Ron Long
March 21, 2021 7:24 am

…and the mainstream media are calling it aggressive and malicious,

errr.. pot…kettle…black…

Hoyt Clagwell
Reply to  Climate believer
March 21, 2021 8:37 am

I’ve never liked the expression about the pot calling the kettle black. Primarily because the kettle is in fact, black. That the pot is black too doesn’t make the statement untrue. It is an expression used by people to call someone a hypocrite as a distraction from the simple fact that their original statement was unassailably true.

Drake
Reply to  Hoyt Clagwell
March 21, 2021 5:19 pm

No, they are calling someone, for example, who calls THEM a hypocrite, a hypocrite.

I know you are, but what am I?

Paul Penrose
Reply to  Hoyt Clagwell
March 22, 2021 9:24 am

You completely missed the point of the saying, which is: the pot is denigrating the kettle for being sooty, while claiming to be superior, even though the pot is also in the same condition.

DonK31
March 21, 2021 7:28 am

The first problem with the narrative is that alarmists want to name every stiff breeze blowing over the Cabo Verde Islands instead of hurricanes.

The second is that with excellent weather satellites available, every stiff breeze is caught and named.

The third is that now, the wind speeds are estimated from afar rather than being measured by an anemometer at the formerly agreed upon height above ground level.

Like anything else involved in the climate change narrative is controlled by those able to manipulate the data.

Steve Case
Reply to  DonK31
March 21, 2021 7:52 am

“Like anything else involved in the climate change narrative is controlled by those able to manipulate the data.”

In other news:

The rose in the east this morning.

Freedom of the press, is limited to those who own a printing press.

Tom Foley
March 21, 2021 7:34 am

Does the same thing apply to cyclones in the southern hemisphere?

Is there a standard criteria for identifying the initiation of a hurricane/ cyclone? Has this changed over time? At what point is a name given? I’ve heard weather reports that say ‘a cyclone seems to be/ may be forming’, clearly not yet named.

Mumbles McGuirck
Reply to  Tom Foley
March 21, 2021 8:23 am

The criterion for naming a tropical cyclone has remained the same since 1950, a closed low with sustained (2 minutes) maximum winds at 10 meters of 34 knots (39 mph).
https://www.weather.gov/mob/tropical_definitions.
You can have closed lows with winds less than that called tropical depressions. That is what you hear them talking about when a system is forming. The means of measuring those winds vary and are they often estimated from satellite images. Satellites have vastly improved over the last few decades meaning the estimates have gotten better. This means hurricane forecasters are more likely to name a storm sooner in its life cycle. This is why number of named storms is not a consistent metric if tropical activity over the years.

Climate believer
March 21, 2021 7:35 am

Fewer cyclones too, (and no they are not more intense), and yes people have much more warning now than before, and massive evacuations are organised so death tolls are minimal.

Decadal frequency analysis of tropical disturbances (1877–2016) over BoB.png
Climate believer
Reply to  Climate believer
March 21, 2021 7:38 am

Biggest threat are earthquakes, ain’t no CO² reduction gonna fix dat.

FlaDiver
Reply to  Climate believer
March 21, 2021 12:36 pm

Having lived in 3 disaster prone places SoCal, OK, and SoFla. I’ll take hurricanes all day long over the other 2.

Bryan A
Reply to  FlaDiver
March 21, 2021 7:51 pm

having lived in Ca for 58 years and having experienced 3 major quakes >6.0 and 4 minor quakes <6.0 I'll take occasional quakes over seasonal hurricanes/tornados

philincalifornia
March 21, 2021 7:57 am

It’s just getting farcical what the dumbos are believing now.

Griff, loydo, do you have psychiatric reports that you could scan and post please? Izaak et al., you too. Why don’t you losers have a loved one smash you between the eyes with either a baseball bat or a cricket bat any time the word carbon involuntarily spills out of your mouths. You’ll have a better life not post-modern bible thumping, although if you didn’t exist, I wouldn’t be able to post this. You don’t even know you’re pathetic false flags.

Meanwhile, the haters are out in Atlanta hating hate. How the libtards can turn a devastatingly horrible situation into vile dark comedy is disgusting. Get lives idiots – you only have one each.

Anon
March 21, 2021 8:10 am

Cutting the Hurricane data off at 1980 was covered below in the Wall Street Journal.

Apparently, John Holdren and Gavin Schmidt were fine with it, with Schmidt telling Steve Koonin, “everyone has an agenda“.

Video:

Opinion Journal: How Government Twists Climate Statistics

Former (Obama) Energy Department Undersecretary Steven Koonin on how bureaucrats spin scientific data. 

https://www.wsj.com/video/opinion-journal-how-government-twists-climate-statistics/80027CBC-2C36-4930-AB0B-9C3344B6E199.html

So, what we are doing here is not discussing science but “correcting the record“… one that has been deliberately corrupted and foisted on public by the United States government.

So, as far as I can tell, the Government selects the same approximate endpoint (1978-1983) for Hurricane Data, Arctic Sea Ice and Forest Burn Acreage. (To claim a linear trend correlated to CO2).

Does anyone here have knowledge of other instances (start point cherry picking) where this occurs, that can be concretely documented and presented?

Last edited 23 days ago by Anon
SAMURAI
March 21, 2021 8:21 am

Leftists love starting climate data from 1980 because since then, the PDO and AMO ocean cycles entered their respective 30-year warm cycles.

Leftist climate alarmist hate using climate data between 1945~1979 because the PDO and AMO ocean cycles were in their respective cool cycles and global temps fell for 34 years, to the point where climate alarmist predicted man-made Global Cooling from coal particulates was causing a new Ice Age…

“It’s always man’s fault”, and Leftists will manipulate data to support that crazy notion…

Jeff Alberts
March 21, 2021 9:11 am

We know that CO2 emissions rose from 1950 to 1990, and so applying alarmist CO2 theory, the first named hurricane would be expected to occur earlier and earlier in the year. But instead it trended to start later and later during the 1950 to 1990 period, meaning it has little or nothing to do with CO2.”

Why is 1990 the cutoff? It’s not mentioned anywhere else in the article except this paragraph.

Loren C. Wilson
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
March 22, 2021 4:42 am

Just a demonstration that if you choose your endpoints, you can get a positive, negative, or flat trend.

Hurricane Willy
March 21, 2021 9:35 am

Every Hurricane is preceded by a specific event on the surface of the Sun.

Reply to  Hurricane Willy
March 21, 2021 11:00 am

Now that’s the kinda cryptic remark that makes the soul scream: “you got the numbers for that?”
No, really, that sounds very interesting, you got numbers for that?

Hurricane Willy
Reply to  paranoid goy
March 21, 2021 12:38 pm

3+ years of empirical records. Every hurricane preceded by a specific event on the surface of the Sun. Conditions on Earth also need to be in place, as in, hurricane season but the solar event is the catalyst.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Hurricane Willy
March 21, 2021 4:21 pm

“3+ years”

At least we don’t have to worry about drowning in data!

Hurricane Willy
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
March 21, 2021 7:47 pm

I would take 3 years of empirical records over 150 years of unproven hypothesis any day.

It’s approximately 100 named storms over 4 hurricane seasons. I’d say that was enough empirical evidence to be beyond coincidence. You are welcome to disagree however.

Last edited 23 days ago by Hurricane Willy
Hurricane Willy
Reply to  Hurricane Willy
March 21, 2021 8:14 pm

The IPCC first report 1998, section 8.4 “When Will the Greenhouse Effect be Detected?

Last edited 23 days ago by Hurricane Willy
Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Hurricane Willy
March 23, 2021 7:50 am

You are welcome to disagree however.

Thank you for the invitation. I will accept it.

Hurricane Willy
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
March 23, 2021 9:11 am

Ignorance is bliss …wilful ignorance is like crack cocaine.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Hurricane Willy
March 23, 2021 7:43 pm

You could save everyone 1/3 of their time if you trimmed your “empirical records” down to two years, and you could claim that the change in the average number of hurricanes was unquestionably linear.

Hurricane Willy
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
March 24, 2021 1:50 am

I never mentioned a change in the average number of hurricanes.
I said that every hurricane is preceded by an event on the Suns surface and that I have 3+ years of empirical records to prove it. It makes no difference if the average number of hurricanes is going up or down, the catalyst is always a solar event.

The point being that CO2 emissions are not involved.

Reply to  Hurricane Willy
March 21, 2021 11:28 pm

Link/s? Tables? Graph/s? I really am interested…

Hurricane Willy
Reply to  paranoid goy
March 22, 2021 1:22 am

Then make your own observation of solar events and compare them to hurricane records.

Reply to  Hurricane Willy
March 22, 2021 1:49 am

Bro’ (say brah) why get defensive? You made a statement, I found the concept interesting and asked for more information. If I had the technology to observe the sun, trust me, I would. From your assertion/s, I thought you actually had the relevant info at hand, even if just a link to someone else’s work.
Now get back to your Fruit Loops.

Hurricane Willy
Reply to  paranoid goy
March 22, 2021 2:24 am

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/

Not being defensive, the data I have has not been released yet. But you can go to the link above and begin your own investigations. No fruit loops, just observations.

No abuse required.

Last edited 22 days ago by Hurricane Willy
DonK31
Reply to  Hurricane Willy
March 21, 2021 2:42 pm

What specific event?, other than the sun rising toward the East?

Hurricane Willy
Reply to  DonK31
March 21, 2021 3:03 pm

The Sun is not a light bulb in the sky.

frankclimate
March 21, 2021 10:08 am

There were some more issues with this “longer decay of landfalling hurricanes” “paper”, see https://judithcurry.com/2020/11/17/slower-decay-of-landfalling-hurricanes-in-a-warmer-world-really/

S.K.
March 21, 2021 11:11 am

Notrickszone has a repository of links to literally 1000’s of research papers and researcher use the site as a resource. The repository is categorized on the side bar.

Thank WUWT for referencing that site and please continue to do so in future.

rah
March 22, 2021 7:00 am

And so once again the alarmists concentrate on the North Atlantic basin when in fact their “climate change” is supposed to be global!

2020 Global ACE was well below the 1981 to 2010 average and yet what are the alarmists concentrating on? Why of course the N. Atlantic Basin which was the ONLY basin was above the average last year! I get so tired of these oxygen thieves.

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