Global Hurricane Activity Below Average In 2020

Reposted from Not A Lot Of People Know That

DECEMBER 31, 2020

By Paul Homewood

As the year draws to a close, we can note that, despite a busy Atlantic hurricane season, global hurricane activity has actually been well below average:

http://climatlas.com/tropical/

And in the US, tornado activity has also been below average, according to provisional data:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data

What is particularly notable is that again there have been no EF-5 tornadoes this year. EF-5s are the most powerful category, and it is now more than 7 years since the last one hit Moore County, Oklahoma in May 2013.

Since 1970 there has been a total of 36 EF-5s, of which 14 occurred in the 1970s:

image

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data

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January 1, 2021 2:45 pm

The children aren’t going to know what a hurricane is!

Ron Long
January 1, 2021 3:08 pm

Are you sure? I think I’ll wait for CNN to verify this. What?

January 1, 2021 3:24 pm

This is not something The Cause is going to make note of in the main stream media so Average Joe will hear about it.
Hopefully, Dr Maue can force the National Climate Assessment team to acknowledge this below global hurricane activity in the next report rather than simply focus on the 2020 Atlantic Basin. I have no doubt the Climate Scam Team that Dementia Joe will install after January 20th will show Dr Maue the door for his scientific honesty. The last thing the The Cause climate team can allow is scientific integrity.

Mumbles McGuirck
January 1, 2021 3:33 pm

As usual the news media focused on the one parameter (named storms) that was anomousuly high for the Atlantic basin. A better metric is Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) which was 180 for the Atlantic and 581 globally. High but not a record. Whatever sounds worse is what they emphasize.

dh-mtl
January 1, 2021 4:16 pm

Just looking at the chart for ACE, it looks like it is well correlated with ENSO.

Is the data behind the chart available?

Mumbles McGuirck
Reply to  dh-mtl
January 1, 2021 4:34 pm

You can find storm data by year and basin here:
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=northatlantic
This includes ACE, number of hurricanes, etc.

dh-mtl
Reply to  Mumbles McGuirck
January 1, 2021 6:38 pm

Thanks,

I just tried a correlation. For annual data from 1980 – 2000, the correlation coefficient R^2, between Global annual ACE and ENSO (annual average centered on July), is 0.28. This is highly significant.

This shows, without a doubt, that one of the primary drivers of ACE is ENSO.

Matthew Sykes
Reply to  dh-mtl
January 2, 2021 12:17 am

I was reading that latent heat loss in a hurricane (heat lost though evaporation) is huge and can exceed 1000 wm^-2 https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/139/9/2011mwr3548.1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display

Thats a hell of a negative feedback!

The system really does look like ‘heat into the oceans in the tropics’->’ocean currents move it about’->’ENSO dumps heat out of the ocean in big chunks’ in the way it works.

CO2 might add a half degree at night, in cold places, to the land minimum, but really doesn’t do much globally with its tiny 3 wm^-2 forcing.

dh-mtl
Reply to  dh-mtl
January 2, 2021 10:02 am

I have further looked at the correlation between Global annual ACE and ENSO from 1980 through 2020.

It seems that the accumulated cyclone energy leads (not lags) ENSO.
When I use a 13 mo Avg of ENSO centered on October of the following year, the correlation between the two is very high: R=0.67, R^2=.045.

What ever is driving ACE is also driving the short term variations in ENSO.

dh-mtl
Reply to  dh-mtl
January 2, 2021 10:08 am

Correction: When I use a 13 mo Avg of ENSO centered on October of the following year, the correlation between the two is very high: R=0.67, R^2=0.45.

dh-mtl
Reply to  dh-mtl
January 2, 2021 12:25 pm

Foget the above – It,s an error.

ACE and ENSO are concurrent. The best correlation is R^2 =0.29, with the ENSO 13 mo average centered on August.

Joseph Bastardi
January 1, 2021 5:53 pm
RickWill
January 1, 2021 5:58 pm

Cyclones are the major energy relief valve for the tropical oceans. Shutters go up hard for days on end over large areas of ocean.

Often gigatonnes of water dumped on land representing a massive amount of ocean heat transported to land.

If cyclone activity was down then tropical ocean surface temperature is down. The tropical thermostat did not need to work as hard as other years.

Martin Cropp
Reply to  RickWill
January 2, 2021 12:17 pm

Rick
Tropical Cyclones in the area of East pacific and Atlantic are influenced by where the oceans are warmest, and the square kilometer of surface area in that critical area.

In 2020 because of La Nina the release of ocean location heat was different. Therefore it influenced the largest circulation mass of air on the plane – the zonal winds that circulate the Antarctic.
https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/figures/merra2/wind/u60s_150_2020_merra2.pdf
https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/figures/merra2/wind/u60s_100_2020_merra2.pdf
https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/figures/merra2/wind/u60s_70_2020_merra2.pdf

Causing this
https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/figures/ozone/to3areas_2020_toms+omi+omps.pdf

Steve Case
January 1, 2021 6:10 pm

“Since 1970 there has been a total of 36 EF-5s, of which 14 occurred in the 1970s”

And that’s the decade of the Global Cooling scare

Jim Clarke
Reply to  Steve Case
January 1, 2021 7:16 pm

Meteorology 101, and perhaps the first indication for many that the climate crisis scare was BS. It is the temperature difference between the poles and the equator that drives the weather. Increasing the temperature difference would result in more severe weather. Decreasing the difference would produce less severe weather. Climate alarmist ignored this most basic science and claimed that man-made climate change would reduce the temperature difference AND produce more severe weather, because less severe weather isn’t alarming! It is a good thing. You can’t scare humans into compliance if you tell them that everything is great and getting better (which it is, if you don’t count the media and government)!

Steve Case
Reply to  Jim Clarke
January 1, 2021 8:58 pm

Thanks for the reply. Yes indeed that’s what they say, here’s the link

IPCC AR4 Chapter Ten

Page 750 
Temperature Extremes
Almost everywhere, daily minimum temperatures are
projected to increase faster than daily maximum temperatures,
leading to a decrease in diurnal temperature range.

Derg
January 1, 2021 8:07 pm

But I was told CO2 causes more and bigger hurricanes. After all, they changed it from global warming to climate change because that was what was happening 😉

Simon
Reply to  Derg
January 1, 2021 9:21 pm

But I was told CO2 causes more and bigger hurricanes. ” Actually that’s not what the IPCC says.

Derg
Reply to  Simon
January 2, 2021 1:11 am

What is climate change?

David A
Reply to  Simon
January 2, 2021 3:19 am

And yet they make zero effort to correct either “scientists” or media or politicians that make such claims.

Matthew Sykes
January 2, 2021 12:09 am

Didnt SSTs also peak around 2000? I also recall that NCEP-RE shows DSW peaking in 2003. Could be they are all linked since we know only shortwave can warm the oceans.

pochas94
January 2, 2021 4:01 am

But they’ll be baack. Just in time to surprise Floridians who just built flimsy structures too near the water.

Olen
January 2, 2021 8:48 am

That is good news but if Al Gore shows up!

2hotel9
January 2, 2021 9:10 am

So, for this up coming season they will name rains squalls in order to get that “awareness” number up. Oy vey.

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