Solar Cycle 25 is officially underway. NASA and NOAA made the announcement during a media teleconference earlier today. According to an international panel of experts, sunspot counts hit rock bottom in Dec. 2019, and have been slowly increasing since.
NASA and NOAA made the announcement during a media teleconference earlier today. According to an international panel of experts, the sunspot number hit rock bottom in Dec. 2019, bringing an end to old Solar Cycle 24. Since then, sunspot counts have been slowly increasing, heralding new Solar Cycle 25.
“How quickly solar activity rises is an indicator on how strong the next solar cycle will be,” says Doug Biesecker of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, co-chair of the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel. “Although we’ve seen a steady increase in sunspot activity this year, it is slow.”
The panel believes that new Solar Cycle 25 will be a weak one, peaking in 2025 at levels similar to old Solar Cycle 24. If their prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 25 (like Solar Cycle 24 before it) will be one of the weakest since record-keeping began in 1755.
More on Spaceweather.com
From NOAA:
Analysis determines we are in Solar Cycle 25
September 15, 2020 – The solar minimum between Solar Cycle 24 and 25 – the period when the sun is least active – happened in December 2019, when the 13-month smoothed sunspot number fell to 1.8, according to the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel, co-chaired by NOAA and NASA. We are now in Solar Cycle 25 with peak sunspot activity expected in 2025, the panel said.
Solar Cycle 24 was average in length, at 11 years, and had the 4th-smallest intensity since regular record keeping began with Solar Cycle 1 in 1755. It was also the weakest cycle in 100 years. Solar maximum occurred in April 2014 with sunspots peaking at 114 for the solar cycle, well below average, which is 179.
Solar Cycle 24’s progression was unusual. The Sun’s Northern Hemisphere led the sunspot cycle, peaking over two years ahead of the Southern Hemisphere sunspot peak. This resulted in solar maximum having fewer sunspots than if the two hemispheres were in phase.
Solar Cycle 25
For the past eight months, activity on the sun has steadily increased, indicating we transitioned to Solar Cycle 25. Solar Cycle 25 is forecast to be a fairly weak cycle, the same strength as cycle 24. Solar maximum is expected in July 2025, with a peak of 115 sunspots.
“How quickly solar activity rises is an indicator on how strong the solar cycle will be,” said Doug Biesecker, Ph.D., panel co-chair and a solar physicist at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center. “Although we’ve seen a steady increase in sunspot activity this year, it is slow.”
The panel has high confidence that Solar Cycle 25 will break the trend of weakening solar activity seen over the past four cycles. “We predict the decline in solar cycle amplitude, seen from cycles 21 through 24, has come to an end,” said Lisa Upton, Ph.D., panel co-chair and solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp. “There is no indication we are approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.”
“While we are not predicting a particularly active Solar Cycle 25, violent eruptions from the Sun can occur at any time,” Biesecker added.
Solar cycle prediction gives a rough idea of the frequency of space weather storms of all types, from radio blackouts to geomagnetic storms and solar radiation storms. It is used by many industries to gauge the potential impact of space weather in the coming years.
New satellites will provide enhanced observations of the Sun
In 2024, before the peak of sunspot activity in Solar Cycle 25, NOAA is slated to launch a new spacecraft dedicated to operational space weather forecasting. NOAA’s Space Weather Follow-On L-1 observatory will be equipped with instruments that sample the solar wind, provide imagery of coronal mass ejections, and monitor other extreme activity from the Sun in finer detail than before. NOAA’s next Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-U) is also scheduled to launch in 2024. GOES-U will carry three solar monitoring instruments, including the first compact coronagraph, which will help detect coronal mass ejections. Enhanced observations of the Sun from these satellites will help improve space weather forecasting.
The Solar Cycle Prediction Panel forecasts the number of sunspots expected for solar maximum, along with the timing of the peak and minimum solar activity levels for the cycle. It is comprised of scientists representing NOAA, NASA, the International Space Environment Services, and other U.S. and international scientists.
NOAA has an interactive plotter here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
Bruce Cobb:
Actually, ALL of the cooling during the MM was due to volcanic eruptions.
https://www.osf.io/b2vxp/
Wrong. That is what the Warmunists would have you believe though.
I think also it should be emphasized that the Medieval Warm Period that occurred just before the Little Ice Age has been documented as being as warm or warmer than the the present day. And this of course when few of us were on the planet.
Rod Chilton:
The warmth of the MWP was obviously not due to high levels of CO2 in the atmosphere.
It was because, over a roughly 300 year period, there were only 31 VEI4 or higher volcanic eruptions (~10/century) Very little volcanic SO2 circulating in the atmosphere to cool things down.
Wrong again.
Bruce Cobb:
“Wrong Again”
Visit the above link which I provided , THEN tell me why I am wrong
Hi Burl: I agree wholeheartedly!
MWP was much warmer. Grapes in the UK, horse-drawn plows in Greenland where permafrost exists today. Towns high in the Alps eventually covered by snow and advancing glaciers, only uncovered recently. Roman piers on dry land today because water levels fell when that water became locked up in ice. This all points to a hotter climate year-round then, and a cooler climate today on a long-term scale. Neither warming or cooling has ever been caused by human activities.
Hi Eric: I could not agree more, and for what it is worth, I am a climatologist. Kind regards, Rod.
Grapes have been grown in the UK since roman times. Hubert Lamb’s reconstruction of MWP temperatures for the Central England region suggests it is warmer to-day. A few sceptic commentators point to the Thames freezing in winter during the LIA but such events have been recorded as far back as the 11th century.
The climate was almost certainly warmer across Northern Europe during the medieval period but this might just be simply regional warming of they type seen in the 1930s & 40s.
Eric Eikenberry:
“Neither warming or cooling has ever been caused by human activities”
Much of our cooling and warming correlates with volcanic activity: Cooling following a VEI4 or larger eruption, then subsequent warming as its dimming SO2 aerosols settle out of the atmosphere.
However, since the period of about 1850, man-made SO2 aerosols from industrial activity entered our atmosphere, and also caused cooling. This gradually increased until the late 1970’s , where they reached a reported 136 Megatons, causing worries about a new ice age. Then they began falling because of Global Clean Air efforts, causing all of the subsequent warming mistakenly blamed upon CO2 (which has no climatic effect).
So humans have very much affected our climate since the 1850″s.
Eric Eichenberry:
I forgot to add that if the Green New Deal is implemented, whose centerpiece is the complete abandonment of the burning of fossil fuels, all man-made SO2 emissions will disappear, and temperatures will soar to those of the MWP, or probably higher.
Here is the most plausible forecast for cycle 25 from Irina N. Kitiashvili
NASA Ames Research Center,
http://hmi.stanford.edu/hminuggets/?p=3255
“According to our analysis, Solar Cycle 25 will start after an extended solar minimum during 2019 – 2021, and will be weaker than the current cycle (Figure 3b). The maximum of activity will occur in 2024 – 2025 with sunspot number of about 50 +/- 15 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series). Solar Cycle 25 will start in the southern hemisphere in 2020 and reach maximum in 2024 with a sunspot number of ~ 28 (+/- 10%). Solar activity in the northern hemisphere will be delayed for about 1 year (with error of +/- 0.5year) and reach maximum in 2025 with a sunspot number of ~ 23 +/- 5 (+/- 21%). Detailed descriptions of the analysis procedure, tests, and results can be found in in Ref [5].”
Well… we found that the ‘Terminator’ will happen around April 2021. This is related to our article concerning the start of Solar Cycle 25. You can find the links on other places. So Solar Cycle 25 will rapidly go up in activity… There go all your predictions… Mind: we where the only ones that had the start of cycle 25 correct…
Here is the most plausible forecast for cycle 25
And why is that the ‘most plausible’?
It is not plausible at all… We found how you can calculate the ‘Terminator’. All the big boys failed… So now everybody thinks 2021 will be weak…
It’s on website of your home institution Stanford University, 🙂
Ms Kitiashvili (NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, Mountain View, CA 94035, USA) has a superior crystal ball to be so detailed with a bit of help of 10, 20 & 30 % error bars.
“According to our analysis, Solar Cycle 25 will start after an extended solar minimum during 2019 – 2021, and will be weaker than the current cycle (Figure 3b). The maximum of activity will occur in 2024 – 2025 with sunspot number of about 50 +/- 15 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series). Solar Cycle 25 will start in the southern hemisphere in 2020 and reach maximum in 2024 with a sunspot number of ~ 28 (+/- 10%). Solar activity in the northern hemisphere will be delayed for about 1 year (with error of +/- 0.5year) and reach maximum in 2025 with a sunspot number of ~ 23 +/- 5 (+/- 21%).”
How much is she paid? How far was she wrong with the start of cycle 25?
It’s on website of your home institution Stanford University
Yeah, I know her [personally] and her work. My question was “why is this the most plausible?”
See below 9:53
Comparison of cycles 21-25 (September 1, 2020)
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png
Visible lack of synchronization of magnetic activity. The south field appears to have become active much earlier than the north field. Now both fields are active, but the stains are extremely faint. Even Class B flares are rare.
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Dipall.gif
We can now compare all solar minimums to find we are getting closer to a Dalton rather than a Centennial minimum in sunspot averages near the minimum, and closer to a Centennial in number of spotless days.
Rank Cycle # 45th mo (= from 36 mo before the min to last month, the 9th month after min)
1 5 5.8
2 14 9.0
3 24 9.8
4 6 10.6
5 23 12.8
6 11 13.7
7 12 14.3
8 13 15.8
9 4 17.9
10 16 22.4
Rank Cycle# ∑ of 0
1 6 1254
2 11 1028
3 14 1019
4 13 938
5 23 817
6 24 792
7 12 736
8 9 655
9 16 568
10 15 534
Zoom from Michigan’s 45th parallel last night:
I find her method persuasive see Fig 3 in the link.What do you think?
“Three test predictions of SC23 and SC24 using different numbers of the preceding cycles with observed magnetic field have been performed[5]. It was found that using two cycles of the synoptic magnetograms can provide a reasonable forecast of the solar activity for the following solar cycle. Taking into account poloidal field observations can noticeably improve the forecast, particularly in the case when the data of three preceding cycles are assimilated in the model. Forecasted hemispheric toroidal field variations are in good agreement with observations, at least up to the following solar maximum, and often make a reasonable prediction for the whole activity cycle (Figure 3a). Predicted poloidal fields are in good agreement with observations for up to two years in the case of assimilation of data for two preceding activity cycles, and for about three years if data for three cycles is assimilated. ”
Figure 3| a) Evolution of the mean toroidal fields in the northern and southern hemispheres based on the field observations for three solar cycles, and prediction of the mean toroidal and poloidal field components variation during SC24. b) Prediction for the mean toroidal fields for SC25 in the northern and southern hemispheres based on field observations for three solar cycles. Vertical dashed lines indicate the prediction start time.
I find her methods very persuasive esp Fig3. What do you think?
“Three test predictions of SC23 and SC24 using different numbers of the preceding cycles with observed magnetic field have been performed[5]. It was found that using two cycles of the synoptic magnetograms can provide a reasonable forecast of the solar activity for the following solar cycle. Taking into account poloidal field observations can noticeably improve the forecast, particularly in the case when the data of three preceding cycles are assimilated in the model. Forecasted hemispheric toroidal field variations are in good agreement with observations, at least up to the following solar maximum, and often make a reasonable prediction for the whole activity cycle (Figure 3a). Predicted poloidal fields are in good agreement with observations for up to two years in the case of assimilation of data for two preceding activity cycles, and for about three years if data for three cycles is assimilated.
Figure 3| a) Evolution of the mean toroidal fields in the northern and southern hemispheres based on the field observations for three solar cycles, and prediction of the mean toroidal and poloidal field components variation during SC24. b) Prediction for the mean toroidal fields for SC25 in the northern and southern hemispheres based on field observations for three solar cycles. Vertical dashed lines indicate the prediction start time. “
Predicted poloidal fields are in good agreement with observations for up to two years in the case of assimilation of data for two preceding activity cycles, and for about three years if data for three cycles is assimilated.
Typical case of ‘overfitting’ with no physics. As von Neumann said “with four parameters I can fit an elephant; with five I can make him wiggle his trunk”.
Taking into account poloidal field observations can noticeably improve the forecast
Wiggle his trunk…
The polar fields now suggest SC25 to be slightly larger than SC24.
Her paramaterization of the previous cycles was and is based on past observations. Thus her forecast for 24 in the 2008 paper turned out well. It is not a great stretch to use the same method including the actual 24 outcomes to predict 25. It would be icing on the cake if you came up with some matching physics but not essential for climate forecasting purposes if the forecast turns out to be in the ballpark.
Kitiashvili, I., Kosovichev, A. G. 2008, ApJ Lett., 688, L49
I’m a Geologist -Here is her physics what do think?
3. DYNAMO MODEL
Currently, there is no generally accepted model of the solar
dynamo. However, most of the models are based on the Parker
oscillatory -dynamo mechanism (Parker 1955), which in- aQ
cludes turbulent helicity and magnetic field stretching by differential rotation. Recent observational and theoretical investigations (e.g., Sokoloff 2007; Brandenburg & Subramanian
2005) revealed an important role of magnetic helicity (Pouquet
et al. 1976). Thus, for this investigation we added to the original
Parker model an equation describing the evolution of the magnetic helicity, . This equation was derived by Kleeorin & am
Ruzmaikin (1982) from the conservation of the total magnetic
helicity. Then, the dynamo model can be written as (Kitiashvili
& Kosovichev 2008)
A 2 2 B A p aB h∇ A, p G h∇ B, t t x
am m p Q a a 2
[ ] ABS( ABS) ABS , (2) t 2pr h T
where B is the toroidal component of magnetic field and A is
the vector potential of the poloidal component of the mean
magnetic field, [ , ABS p BP TP T B B p curl (0, 0, A) B p
(0, 0, B) in spherical coordinates]; h describes the total magnetic
diffusivity, which is the sum of the turbulent and molecular
magnetic diffusivity, (usually ); h p htm m t h h K h G p
Avx S/y is the rotational shear; coordinates x and y are in the
azimuthal and latitudinal directions, respectively; parameter a
is helicity represented in the form , 2 a p ah m /(1 yB ) a
where and are the kinetic and magnetic parts and a a y is h m
a quenching parameter; r is density; T is a characteristic time
of dissipation magnetic helicity (which includes dissipation
through helicity transport); and . Q ∼ 0.1
Following the approach of Weiss et al. (1984) we average
the system of equations (2) in a vertical layer to eliminate zdependence of A and B and consider a single Fourier mode
propagating in the x-direction assuming , ikx A p A(t)e B p
; then we get the following system of equations: ikx B(t)e
dA dB p 2 2 aB hk A, p ikGA hk B, dt dt
da a m m Q 2 2 22 a p [ ] ABk (B k A ) . (3) dt T 2pr h
For the interpretation of the solutions of the dynamical system in terms of the sunspot number properties we use the
imaginary part of the toroidal component because it gives B(t)
the amplitude of the antisymmetric harmonics, and approximate
the sunspot number, W, as , following Bracewell’s 3/2 (Im B)
suggestion (Bracewell 1953, 1988). This dynamo model has
been investigated in detail by Kitiashvili & Kosovichev (2008)
Here is her physics what do think
The physics being that the polar fields [alone] determine the next cycle.
The Kalman Filter is just extrapolation of curve fitting with no inherent predictive value and posits that the sun has memory [stored where?] of several past cycles. There is no evidence for that supposition.
None of what you cite is such evidence, but sounds ‘impressive’ enough for some people to be taken in by something they don’t understand.
They said:
“According to our analysis, Solar Cycle 25 will start after an extended solar minimum during 2019 – 2021, and will be weaker than the current cycle (Figure 3b). The maximum of activity will occur in 2024 – 2025 with sunspot number of about 50 +/- 15 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series).”
Considering that solar min was passed in Dec. 2019, they are already a bit off with their prediction. The polar fields predict a max sunspot number of 135 which is a long way from their 50. Luckily, we shall know in a couple of years where the cycle is headed.
It would be icing on the cake if you came up with some matching physics but not essential for climate forecasting purposes if the forecast turns out to be in the ballpark
You cannot base climate forecasting on a single cycle, especially if the prediction turns out to be wrong.
The quote above says the predictions are based on assimilating the data from 3 cycles
“Taking into account poloidal field observations can noticeably improve the forecast, particularly in the case when the data of three preceding cycles are assimilated in the model. Forecasted hemispheric toroidal field variations are in good agreement with observations, at least up to the following solar maximum, and often make a reasonable prediction for the whole activity cycle (Figure 3a). Predicted poloidal fields are in good agreement with observations for up to two years in the case of assimilation of data for two preceding activity cycles, and for about three years if data for three cycles is assimilated. ”
The quote above says the predictions are based on assimilating the data from 3 cycles
And that is precisely the problem as there is no evidence for memory [stored where?] of past cycles.
Each cycle is born from the debris of the one previous cycle.
And the past predictions were really not that good.
Since they predict a very small cycle [contrary to what the polar fields tell us], you will be able to reevaluate your enthusiasm shortly.
As the geomagnetic activity increases, La Nina develops (very slowly). This is a bad winter forecast for North America, especially California (drought threatening).
http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/oceanography/ocean_anals/IDYOC007/IDYOC007.202009.gif
The La Nina stopped deepening after the last sunspot group faded away. Watch what happens when the next sunspot group appears. Currently the last 26 days have been spotless. The daily ENSO trackers show that temps in the 3.4 region have remained in a very narrow range since then.
What happened is the center disk has had less flux lately as those sunspots faded, with a smallish coronal hole opening up from where the biggest increase this month in solar wind speed came from for the most recent geomagnetic activity at the end of August/early Sept., which lead to a low TSI period again nearing the recent solar minimum floor level, suppressing equatorial absorption.
The most recent TSI bumps were absorbed under clearer skies in the western Pacific (red and orange areas) while being countered by the cold tongue flow (blue) along South America originally from Antarctica. The Nino12 region is reaching its annual minimum meaning this flow should subside with the SH spring/summer.
Here comes the next sunspot. The glow from it has been showing up for the prior 3 days as it comes close to moving into view. Temps in the 3.4 region have been dropping for the last 3 or 4 days. That could be due to the strength of the current at the Equator. This new sunspot group should push the 3.4 temps down to -1.3+/- by the end of this month.
I won’t believe much of anything that is said about Sunspots until I see a positive movement in the foF2 readings… average being around 5000 khz radio wise that is.
So far today 27 with no sunspots and counting.
vgw
“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts” Dr. Richard P. Feynman
From the above article: “According to an international panel of experts, sunspot counts hit rock bottom in Dec. 2019, and have been slowly increasing since.”
Of course it did. That is why we can look on the column on the far right of this webpage and scroll to find the current image of the Sun under the text “Solar Images & Data Page”. Looking at that image (or better yet, clicking on it to get a larger, higher resolution image and other solar data), we find it to be largely unblemished, without noticeable sunspots, some 8+ months AFTER December 2019. To me it resembles the number 1 billiard ball in term a color uniformity.
Sometimes nature just doesn’t listen to the “experts”. But then again, maybe I misunderstand what they mean by the term “slowly”.
One week later, the Sun’s image is still that of an unblemished yellow-orange sphere.
But I gotta trust that “international panel of experts”, those increased number of sunspots just have to be out there somewhere.