We’re going idle this weekend in order to minimize complications of server move on Monday.
Feel free to talk, discuss, yell, and play in the sand.
Stay polite. Behave. Represent.
*Warning* Comments on this thread may not be preserved after the move. *Warning*
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For those who like to read (to get smarter!), why the GHGE is wrong after all.
Thoughtful comments appriciated..
https://www.docdroid.net/phJh2cU/the-strange-nasa-map1-doc
Sometimes you find something new (to me at least!).
A quote from another website: “A fluorescence molecule is usually excited by absorbing a single photon of a particular energy, corresponding to a particular wavelength. However, excitation is also possible by simultaneous absorption of two (n) photons, each of half (1/n) the energy and therefore twice (n times) the wavelength. Because this requires all the absorbed photons to be in the vicinity of the molecule within a limited time frame, the chance for a multi-photon excitation event to occur is much lower than the chance for a single photon event. The chance of a single photon event is proportional to the number of photons ‘hitting’ the molecule, and therefore proportional to the intensity. The chance of two photons hitting the molecule in a short interval is proportional to the square of this hit rate, so proportional to the square of the intensity.”
From: https://svi.nl/ExcitationPhotons
Assuming CO2 behaves is a similar way to the molecules quoted above, this implies to me, that CO2 would respond not just to 15 micron radiation but also 30 micro radiation and so on.
Can anyone say if this has been factored into CO2 sensitivity calculations.
Can anyone also answer this question, the earth radiates as a black body radiator T^4 etc. Do blackbody formulae apply when the body in question is not a black body but has chuncks or discontinuities in its response curve?
Multi-photon events are rare, i.e., not significant in most cases and you can look at the absorption spectrum and see that what you are suggesting regarding CO2 does not occur. I would add that fluorescent emission is lower energy than excitation.
With regard to blackbody radiation, nothing is as perfect as theory. That’s where engineers take over and make the world run. Now, just assume a spherical cow.
“Can anyone say if this has been factored into CO2 sensitivity calculations.”
No! Absolutely Not.
You said it yourself: The chance of two photons hitting the molecule in a short interval is proportional to the square of this hit rate.
Two photon processes are *very rare* occurrences. The only place you will see them is in an application where you have a really powerful laser. For the atmosphere, two photon absorption will be orders of magnitude less than garden variety single photon absorption.
Someone (Bo-Wen Shen, San Diego State University) has realized that all that weather chaos requires a bit more structured analysis …
Is Weather Chaotic? Coexisting Chaotic and Non-Chaotic Attractors within Lorenz Models
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342872964_Is_Weather_Chaotic_Coexisting_Chaotic_and_Non-Chaotic_Attractors_within_Lorenz_Models
Hopefully such ideas can filter way down into the ‘climate modelers’ thinking.
Just a note on Hosting migration. Right now where I am, a huge storage migration from a very well known supplier to another also well known, might have forgotten the poor hpc engineers who suddenly notice their content (eng. data, hard won) freezes, shoots off in some other direction, goes fishing.
Talk about loose threads, and hair loss!
https://ktxs.com/news/big-country/wind-turbine-causes-wildfire-in-nolan-county
Fire still going in brush 5 days later
https://www.google.com/amp/s/ktxs.com/amp/news/local/the-game-ranch-fire-continues-to-burn-five-days-later-in-nolan-co-land-owners-worried
Seems efforts to produce power have a long history of resulting in fires.
Yeah, you don’t know anything about this at all.
Whats to know? Town built on coal has to move coz its burning.
It was the local authority that caused the problem by filling an old, disused, mine with garbage because of the problem with smells and vermin. They had always burned landfill that was standard practice. Of course, who’d a thought that setting fire to heaps of garbage might actually start a fire with the remaining coal in the mine, and then spread. D’oh!
Patrick MJD
I thought you implied you knew “the” story. Actually that is one theory. There are others. The point I was making is that harnessing energy comes with risk. Obviously that was a bit complex for you.
“Simon July 20, 2020 at 1:20 am
I thought you implied you knew “the” story. Actually that is one theory.”
No. It is actually what caused the problem. No hypothesis, no theory, no models. You live in NZ, right? I know people who live in PA.
BTW, you risk your life every day simply getting out of bed, or stepping in to or out of the shower or even getting takeout. So your point about risk is rather moot,
Well done, Patrick!
Another Simple Simon attempted deceit goes down in flames….
J Mac
OK Meat Mead Mac tell me where my deceit was? I stand by….
1. There are several theories re the burning.
2. All energy comes with risk.
You really are struggling aren’t you.
Wind Turbine Causes Major Wildfire
https://ktxs.com/news/big-country/wind-turbine-causes-wildfire-in-nolan-county
Fire still going in brush 5 days later
https://www.google.com/amp/s/ktxs.com/amp/news/local/the-game-ranch-fire-continues-to-burn-five-days-later-in-nolan-co-land-owners-worried
Current Fire Status from Inciweb:
https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/article/6855/52600/
Apologies for double post.
This open thread is a great concept. Different people just create a discussion topic, and various folks just take it from there. Be nice to see this be a weekly feature for folks to just throw ideas out there.
Hopefully there is some Toyota Rav 4 mechanics on here. I just put a down payment on a 2021 Toyota Rav 4 PHEV with a 18.1 kW battery pack. Has a range of 42 miles on the battery alone and has a 2.5L gas engine to take over the front wheel drive, and the electric motor drives the back wheels, making it an AWD in both modes, with a healthy ground clearance. As long as you put gas in the tank, range is unlimited, but 42 mile EV range will be good for 3/4 of my driving. It has a smaller dedicated motor/generator for charging the battery, presumably while parked I hope. Plus it has a Level 1 charger built in, which will be handy for charging at the condo in town where there is only a 15 A service for a block heater plug.
Toyota is stingy with technical specs on the 2021 model so far. I am wanting to utilize the battery, by installing my own 3500 W 240 V inverter. Need to know the battery voltage, and where the best connection might be, that could easily be undone in case I need service, since this would probably void the warranty. I am off grid for 3-4 months of the year in far off wilderness, and would be really nice to have access to that battery for my electrical needs, especially if the gas 2.5L engine just automatically starts and charges the batter when the voltage meets a predetermined low level. Have solar to recharge, but when it is cloudy for 40 days and/or winter, solar is practically useless as we all know. Any ideas anyone? Have searched far and wide, and some interesting Youtube videos on the vehicle itself, but no technical details are available it seems. Seems to be the PHEV I have been waiting for that will be useful in cold weather.
Me? Tesla CyberTruck on order. 3-motor, zero to 60 in 2.9 sec.
I’ll race ya, when we both take delivery. Or tug-of-war.
Do you mean you want to make it into a generator of mains power off grid?
Or charge it at 3.5kW?
I wouldn’t do either. Expensive dangerous and worst of all warranty and insurance voiding.
Trying to tap into stuff deliberately made untappable to idiot proof it, is not recommended.
Yes, there’s a good reason designs are made to be idiot proof.
It already has an on board 120 volt 15 Amp charger, so a slow charge, but also a relatively small L-Ion battery at 18.1 kW since it is a plugin hybrid. So it will take all night to charge when plugged into a North American household power socket. But I am in no rush in that application and it is a PHEV, so it can just drive on gas while recharging the battery too.
I just want to tap the battery, same as you would a Telsa Powerwall, as a stationary power source for total off grid, but be able to charge it with the 2.5 L gas engine or solar panels if the Sun is shining since have 1 kW of solar on my RV roof which would charge normally through the on-board charger and my 1 kW of solar panels.
Yes, a bit inefficient, but that is the nature of solar and conversion losses. This would just basically be a fairly significant generator/battery, which is what it is already doing for driving the Toyota SUV. But I would be just be inverting the 18.1 kW DC battery to 120/240 AC to power the RV, but only 30 Amps which would power a 1800 watt load @ur momisugly 15 Amp for about 10 hours before requiring recharging. Actually, would be double that if 240 AC. A fairly small load compared to the the big electric drive motors on the SUV. But yes, you want to get that right, just like when I climb a high voltage power line to fix it, you can’t make a mistake or you don’t come home. Or fixing switchgear hot at 600 volts cause you can’t shut down. I’m still here, touch wood.
I have been generating my own electricity at 100 kW with small hydro for 30 years, so fairly familiar with high voltage. I do a bit of solar with lead acid batteries but they are very unpractical for a mobile application in an RV off grid and mobile. Instead of buying a Tesla Powerwall, would rather just use the Toyota PHEV battery. The battery wouldn’t know the difference, but obviously Toyota wouldn’t approve of it and it would void the warranty if it caused something to go wrong. A risk I can afford to take.
Which is why I would like to connect with a Toyota mechanic who can advise the best course of action. It already has a 150 watt 120 VAC inverter for real small loads, just like a lot of vehicles have already similar to a cigarette lighter plug. I am just upping that AC output 10x or 20x if 240V. I hear the Tesla truck will come with this built in, at least a 120 VAC 15 amp circuit, since it is a work truck and would have a power plug available to run small tools up to 1800 watts off the battery all day etc. This will become a selling feature, since is very capable of doing so. I already have been doing so for 25 years, just with lead acid batteries and inverters with solar and/or generator when totally off grid as I am now in the remote mountains and wilderness.
The problem is that there’s a lot of safety stuff in both charge and discharge to protect a fairly flammable battery from -er – flamming! I don’t know that there is some stuff that monitors how much its been discharged to implement an over-discharge cut off, rather than just detecting – say – low voltage, but unless I knew that for a fact and could duplicate it I wouldn’t go near what you are proposing and that’s with a masters in electronics.
In short you want to discharge that battery in a different way to that which the manufacturers of the car designed for and intended: That will absolutely void any liability and any insurance if – say – that battery goes bang in a big way. I may not a lawyer but I guess you are in the USA with private medical insurance. How do they relate to people behaving as legally demonstrably negligent?
I’ve seen a 2Ah lithium battery catch fire – I’ve seen the result of one of similar size that burnt out a car in which it was left, just in the sun in a California car park. The pictures are online somewhere. You wouldn’t tap your gas tank to make a feed for a room heater either. This is 18 kWh. that around 20kg of high explosive if it all comes out in one go.
Just don’t. You don’t know enough to be scared. I do.
Former UPS technician here. Tapping into high-voltage battery stacks is a very bad idea.
If Toyota or some reputable after-market supplier comes out with a kit to do it, maybe. On your own with a screwdriver, NO NO NO.
Remember, the battery stack CANNOT BE TURNED OFF. There is no safe way to access it unless you really know what you are doing. Even unplugging a cable could cause a spark damaging the system.
Typically these items run 300 to 600 VDC. Right in the range where an arc can be sustained to the point of destruction. This means that an accidental spark from a tool in the wrong position will sustain itself by ionizing the air.
Not like what happens if you drop a spanner across a starter battery. Oops, I just burned a spanner and made a spark. More like oops the battery is on fire and you’re dead.
Maybe these battery packs have internal fuses. Willing to bet your life on it?
Aside from safety, if you tap directly to the battery you bypass the charge-discharge electronics. Many of these systems have charge monitoring electronics that keep track of the current in and out. Bypass that, and the system may assume the wrong charge level, leading to undercharge or overcharge. Lithium Ion systems are very sensitive to errors either way.
This is one situation where a do-it-yourself type can get into real trouble.
Thanks Bruce…good technical reply. Same for everyone else. I will admit I have little experience with L-Ion high voltage DC battery packs. It would be good to find out where to make that connection after the battery pack, such as perhaps the electric cabin heater, which may even be on an AC circuit by then. Probably about the load I would want to invert anyway. But I have zero technical data on this set-up, so yes, would be in the dark risking life and limb. Won’t be doing anything until I know with 100% certainty that I won’t be taking a one way trip to the morgue. Or ruining a perfectly good brand new vehicle.
There are some folks buying up the older battery packs which are wearing down in useful life for mileage range in older EV’s. Perhaps they are NiCad batteries, so a different set up. But some have been L-Ion and are working albeit they suffer the same inefficiencies as the EV was for range. But perhaps a battery recovered from a vehicle is a different ball of wax in that it isn’t already all connected into the entire car circuitry. I will definitely need to do more research, and hopefully a factory kit would become available that is fail proof as could be. Not wanting to fry myself and the new car, but am buying it whether I attempt this hack or not since always wanted a PHEV. I have my own mostly ‘free’ electricity and do a lot of short range driving which would ideal with this new Toyota PHEV with a range of 42 miles on the battery alone. 302 combined Hp with the 2.5 L gas engine, so will also get along at a good clip. Looking forward to delivery later this year. Thanks everyone for your thoughtful replies and will be taking all this into consideration.
“I just want to tap the battery, same as you would a Telsa Powerwall, as a stationary power source for total off grid”
I’ll bet if a car manufacturer offered this option to the public, the cars would sell like hotcakes. I would buy one myself. My power goes out, I plug the house into the car. Then you have a very quiet generator that can be refueled easily and can be run continuously for as long as is needed, or 100,000 miles, whichever comes first. 🙂
You would be far better off simply buying a small trailer, and then loading it up with 8 x 12V deep cycle (RV-boat battery) lead-acid batteries, connected in a 2P – 4S config (48 VDC), and a standard marine-duty 12 VDC inverter to make the clean 120/240 VAC power you want. Then get a 1500-3000 Watt quiet inverter generator to charge the batteries. In this set-up have to decide if cheaper modified sine-wave inverters are good enough, or a much more expensive pure-sine wave inverters for sensitive electronics is needed.
Depending on your budget, the battery choice comes down to capacity:
EverStart 35 Ah lead-acid Marine battery from Walmart ~ $90/each. About $800 for 8 batteries.
or…
Top of the line 100Ah 12V sealed lead-acid Renogy ~$250/each (64 lbs each). About $2,200 for 8.
8Kw and 10Kw Pure sine wave 48 VDC to 120VAC/240VAC inverters are about $3,000.
https://invertersrus.com/product/aims-picoglf10kw48v240vs/
7Kw modified sine wave 48 VDC to 120 VAC inverters about $1,200.
https://invertersrus.com/product/aims-pwrig700048w/
Or better yet, just get the 2x4Kw inverter generators and a couple of 5 gallon gas cans. And save thousands of $. With modern inverter-generators you can even pair them up with phase synchronizers when you need double the Kilowatts.
Voiding the warranty on your new $45K Toyota is beyond dumb.
I already have all that for my mobile off grid needs, and is really, really heavy. I have been generating 100 Kw small hydro grid connected for 30 years so very familiar with all this. I just want to use the Toyota L-Ion battery as described, including the 2.5 L gas engine to charge for my off grid needs. Just want to do it right so hoping to connect with a Toyota mechanic who knows their tech inside out.
The problem is there is no “right way” to do that to your EV’s battery, a use for which it was not designed.
It is just using amps so it wouldn’t know or care if the electrons are being used to power a 150 Hp electric motor for the SUV, or running my 150 W satellite/laptop for internet and other fairly small loads up to 1500 watts, perhaps double that if went 240 VAC. The biggest issue is finding the proper place to tap the battery voltage, and may need an DC-DC transformer to 48 VDC for the AC pure sine wave inverter input since the battery voltage is probably similar to the Pirus battery pack at 201 VDC.
Now Toyota may have designed it so it can’t work for e.g, maybe they have to see RPM from a tach on the drive train before the engine will start to recharge the battery, or some other issue that is designed so it can’t work. This is why I need all the technical specifications and hope to talk to a Toyota tech mechanic who knows these specific details inside out. Although the video says the engine starts and charges the battery when reaching a set lower pre-determined voltage, so as it keeps its battery charged and healthy/warmer if cold. Or you can push a button manually, hold the button, and then the engine recharges the battery presumably at a standstill if necessary. Whether that is efficient use of gasoline running the 2.5L engine as a generator is another matter as I don’t know what RPM the engine operates at and how much hp and current it puts out to charge the battery at the voltage that I don’t know yet, but cost isn’t the issue. But efficiency sort of is. In principal the idea should work flawlessly, if it hasn’t been engineered not to work or there is some reason I am not yet aware of.
I have run my welding truck as such with 400 Amps at 27 VDC for 32 years. That’s nearly 10 kW output on the 240 VAC generator side. I just use 8 12V Walmart Ever Start Max deep cycle batteries in parallel, (relatively cheap) which I run 4 pure sine wave inverters off a main bus for different circuits with a total output of 7 Kw at 120 VAC. In this case my Millar 400 Amp diesel welder is the generator when required, but it also can tie in with one of my portable solar banks. But the diesel genset weighs almost a 1000 pounds, and the 8 Deep cycle batteries with the insulated, heated battery base and vented battery box also weighs a 1000 pounds, so my 1 Ton welding truck is fairly loaded up, not counting tools, torches and a 120 gallon diesel fuel tank. Overloaded actually, but I have been already doing all this for many years, the only difference is that the inverter tech has gotten much better with the pure sine wave the last 10 years. The older square wave (modified) has limitations on running certain things, and has blown up some sensitive equipment, so now almost everything is pure sine wave. The only difference now is that I would be using a 18.1 kW Lithium ion battery.
I am sure this can be done with the 2021 Toyota Rav 4 Prime PHEV, since it isn’t rocket science and will be a selling point for a work truck like Tesla is doing. Your point about warranty is noted. Alternatively, I could buy a used battery pack out of an older EV, and do the same and operate as a type of Powerwall, and just use my propane and gas generators for charging which I already have in my 37′ toy hauler RV. Having sufficient reserve amps in a battery is very nice, but lead acid is just so inefficient on a weight to power ratio. And only should be used to 50% battery capacity (Never let lead acid battery voltage go below 11.8 VDC if possible). I am done with lead acid batteries.
Blew the earlier version of this reply by doing some mistabbed research. Here is some real tech info, as I am SME energy storage guy with multiple issued US patents. Also proud owner of a 2007 Ford hybrid Escape. Whose hybrid battery still is good after 13 years unless I let her sit for a week, in which case I have to active the anticipated 390V jump start button for about a second on the start only traction battery partition. Rest is still fine, as is start partition after 5 minutes.
Two questions answered will resolve your situation. I give a speculative opinion at end.
1. What is the battery chemistry? LiIon has more energy density, but less Cycle life. My Escape is NiMH, and has lasted now 13 years by floating between 40% and 60% charge. Never more, never less. Float is key to that chemistry cyclelife.
My iPad is three years old, and the battery is already weak because always run from 100% to 10%. Its negative electrochemistry has to do with anode SEI buildup. Inherent. So if you use any hybrid vehicle battery for deep charge/ discharge, you will for sure kill it sooner rather than later. Something Tesla does NOT explain.
2. What will your duty cycle be? If large charge/discharge, solution for long off-grid ‘utility’ needs Go SLAC. (SLAC are golf cart and fishing trolling motor long life deep discharge PbA) They only last a couple of years. But are relatively cheap and easily replaced, and will not crap out your very expensive hybrid battery.
On my sailboat, I rigged a system where the engine/alternator automatically came on for a half hour if needed by the house bank batteries (a searchable term) for days, no matter if sailing only. Also gave us the hot water from exhaust. At most 1/2 hour per day of sailing.
Thanks Rud…if there is anyone who would know how to do this, it would be you. Enjoyed your books. If I understand correctly, the Toyota PHEV would automatically start the 2.5 L engine and start charging the battery once the voltage dropped to a pre-set limit. So wouldn’t be discharging the battery below the already pre-set factory limits. The L-Ion battery would just think it was driving on battery and time to turn on the engine when the battery voltage dropped. But these exact details are what Toyota doesn’t make easy to obtain.
In the day time, I would be charging it with my RV rooftop solar, just with the normal on board charger. A bit less efficient for conversion losses, but would work and not consuming much power in daylight, since am out working, fishing, placer mining or hiking.
I love the sailboat electric/hybrid idea. I always dreamed about having a keel with 3-4 tons of Absorbent Glass Mat batteries, or even good old lead acid since weight wouldn’t be the end of the world in a sailboat keel.
Couple of reminders not from me. My Ford Hybrid Escape is nominally 390 volt DC, orange cables, special training (there is a battery disconnect ‘plug’ taught EMC that I learned early). And, my hybrid Escape also provides a 120 V AC outlet off the 390V DC traction battery—120V, 150W, via an electronic DC/AC+V inverter. Why only 150W? Charges all electronics, powers an AC light or two, plus all minor car AC stuff like tire air compressors. No need for more (like a hair dryer), although it could be built.
So you can rig your new hybrid Beyond what mine has. But will take some sophisticated electronics, and great care because of high (lethal) traction battery DC voltage.
I still think doubling the simple house bank battery solution on my late beloved sailboat (a Hunter 35.5 with extra spinnaker rig, enlarged engine alternator, and a related 2x standard 12V house bank battery) Is a safer and cheaper solution. In my Sailboat, adding a second 100 amp 12v SLAC added about 90 pounds to the aft stern battery compartment lower section; offset almost perfectly by a second non-kedge anchor and its rhode chain Stowed in the forward Bow anchor compartment.
Sail Trimmed Perfect (I won the National Championship Bigboat, and won second national in small boat (because lost a single race protest), while co-Captaining my college sailing team) my dreamboat Windsong was almost ideal.
And still got a Hunter 35.5 max hull speed of 7.3 knots when finely trimmed in 15 knot breeze plus low waves on Lake Michigan. That is real, real good. My kids never understood why Dad got so excited after he ran around the sailboat, fiddling with this and that and then sustaining 7.3 knots.
test
This is still my killer challenge to AGW:
http://theearthintime.com
BOMB: if we are in climate crisis, with abnormal warming, why does it no show up — not even a tinge of a ding — in the 50-million recordings of USHCN and the 500-million recordings of GHCN?
… and with 2019 being the lowest TMAX in the entire history of the entire world.{one outlier abnormal year notwithstanding}
[please do not counter with the “The USA is only 5% of the surface of the earth” meme.]
::::: windlord :::::
Actually, I wish someone would counter with a plausible answer as to how an area as large as the contiguous USA sees no “stupid-ass greenhouse effect”. As you point out correctly, the meme is DOA.
I think the realm of answers is probably along the lines of tipping point waah, children’s children’s, children’s, children waah and orangeman bad waah, your (sic) a Trumpster and a climate racist, and calculators are a far right wing tool to make democrats look stupid, waah.
What did I miss?
1) “NOAA has stamped “OBSOLETE” on the measured data, so it doesn’t count.”
2) “Linear thinking, numerical measuring, and valorizing objective reality over feelings is Fascist.”
3) “50-million measurements might be true for you, but they are not true for me.”
4) “So what?”
been enjoying views of comet neowise with my boys the past few nights with summer finally arrived in the PNW. The first night we drove around to three locations trying to spot it, no luck. Went back home and my middle son spotted it with a perfect view from his bedroom. Using the opportunity to teach some science over the summer.
The sky region of Neowise is here allways coverd with clouds, even when the Big Digger is visibke and other stars too.
I saw it yeaterday for seconds, than it was hidden by clouds for the rest of the evening.
No idea who is responsible for my inconvinient 😀
Closest photos of the sun 🌞 surface EVAH! from the ESA solar orbiter:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53429054
Among the UK-assembled craft’s novel insights are views of mini-flares dubbed “camp fires”.
These are millionths of the size of the Sun’s giant flares that are routinely observed by Earth telescopes.
Whether these miniature versions are driven by the same mechanisms, though, is unclear. But these small flares could be involved in the mysterious heating process that makes the star’s outer atmosphere, or corona, far hotter than its surface.
“The Sun has a relatively cool surface of about 5,500 degrees and is surrounded by a super-hot atmosphere of more than a million degrees,” explained Esa project scientist Daniel Müller.
“There’s a theory put forward by the great US physicist Eugene Parker, who conjectured that if you should have a vast number of tiny flares this might account for an omnipresent heating mechanism that could make the corona hot.”
Whatever their role, the camp fires are certainly small – which may explain why they’ve been missed up to this point, says David Berghmans, from the Royal Observatory of Belgium and the principal investigator on the probe’s Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUI).
“We developed a method of freezing hamsters so they were lumps of ice that you could bang on the table. Then we would bring them back to life in one of the first microwave ovens that existed.
…….
This is all part of evolution as Darwin saw it. You are not going to get a new species flourishing unless it has a food supply. In a sense that is what we are becoming. We are the food.”
and lot more hilarious (mostly wrong) comments from James Lovelock: on his 101 birthday.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/18/james-lovelock-the-biosphere-and-i-are-both-in-the-last-1-per-cent-of-our-lives
I was able to celebrate with him last year, a highlight that I hope to never forget. He still has a sense of humor and just to get out of bed at 100 is an accomplishment but I understand that he and Sandy walk a couple of miles every day.
My favourite quote is one about the Richard Branson’ Gaia Airlines and James Lovelock’s Virgin Brothels.
Hey fellow WUWT posters!
Today the Wife and I transgressed a kind of remarkable milestone: 2,000 handmade face masks! It is amazing how many a pair of arthritic oldsters can make when the don’t have societal narratives committing their weekends, their pre-dawn mornings, and so on. We get a couple dozen to maybe 4 dozen done a day (and admittedly, when the juices aren’t flowing, zero to a few). But, now 100 days into this mask-making, we’ve crossed the ‘rubicon’.
Kind of an interesting evolution, too. I’m a physical scientist, so I researched somewhat the mechanism of open-cloth air filtering. Turns out that almost all of a really well-made mask’s abilities boils down to it having many good-but-not-individually-awesome layers. Layer one might catch 70% of the particles. Layer 2 another 50%, the soft middle layer, another 25, the next one 50% again, and the one touching one’s face, perhaps 40%. More or less.
But that comes down to ((1 – 0.7) • (1 – 0.5) • (1 – 0.25) • (1 – 0.5) • (1 – 0.4)) → 0.034 or 3.4% probability of pass-thru. 96% filtering!
As I said, they’ve evolved.
Everyone wanted our 5 layer masks (with the above estimates of per-layer efficacy), but now that it is summer, they turn out to be too warm, heavy. Cloying.
So, we reinvented the masks with a 2-fabric plus 2-stabilizer configuration (stabilizer is a synthetic product that has a heat-fusing adhesive so that it’ll stick to the cloth when ironed on). I don’t think the math works out the same, but I’m pretty sure they’re still achieving 85% filtering. And they’re really light-weight.
Still… the market moves. A lot of people don’t like the Homer Simpson ‘snout’ look (form-fitting cone). Many at-home makers emulated the el-cheapo paper disposable masks that you see everywhere, with a pleated near-ear fabrication, and only 2 layers of cloth.
We tried those an a half-dozen different attach-to-head devices (strings, thin elastics, thick elastics, flat elastics, around-the-head elastics, hand-made sewn ties…) and have converged on “good fabric” and “flat quarter inch (8 mm)” elastics. Somewhat easier to make, less stressful to wear.
THE PROBLEM, now, is availability of dark, 100% cotton fabric that is neither flimsy-and-thin, nor thick as canvas. The market turns out to be nearly sold-out. Everywhere. We’ve looked. We’ve even tried meeting the $750/mininum-order requirements of various wholesalers, to buy entire ‘bolts’ of fabric. Only to have our money taken, and a promise to ship the fabric by the end of September!.
Ridiculous.
Anyway, I would humbly posit that our machinations are Good Ol’ Human Ingenuity at work. We’ve always got a backlog of 50 to 250 masks-to-make, and tho’ it looked for awhile like the demand was slacking, just this last week, our backlog jumped to 250+. Wow. Word-of-mouth seems to work.
Wishing every last WUWT-er (even the obnoxious nattering types) a healthy and prosperous remainder-of–2020. This is history in the making (no, not the masks! the jaw-dropping deranged public outcry and news!), and we’re all still lucky enough to be reading it, watching it, living it.
Here’s a final “GOOD LUCK WUWT” on the transition, too!!!
⋅-=≡ GoatGuy ✓ ≡=-⋅
The good folks at InformationIsBeautifulhas a regularly updated infographic on CV-19:
https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/
What you might find interesting for your mask-making is an item about half-way down that page entitled “Best Household Materials for a Mask.” They evaluate various materials (cotton, silk, linen, etc.) for effectiveness. Interestingly, they feel that adding a cut-up coffee filter can boost efficiency.
I can’t speak to the accuracy of the infographic, but it might provide some ideas for your “next generation” of masks. 🙂
Goat guy…
Look to rags.
I’m a ‘dinosaur’, a factory foreman.
I run the steel fabrication and painting operations for a major appliance company.
I buy cotton rags by the pallet, t-shirt rejects.
What about a mask with a clear plastic front insert that would allow the nose and mouth to be seen?
I saw some masks like this that were made for, I belive, a person who taught lip reading. The ability to see the face and nose would make it easier on people since they could react socially much better that way, when they can see expressions of other people’s faces.
I don’t know what a plastic insert would do to the efficiency of the mask. I suppose it would cut down on the air flow a little.
Moderator: I posted two comments to Javier at https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/17/open-thread-weekend-23/#comment-3037059 that haven’t appeared. Would you please recover them?
Open thread? I can write about anything I want? I can just feel the Asperger’s taking over my brain.
The new James Bond movie is said to feature a tired, jaded James Bond who has been replaced as 007 by a Black woman. Like, come on. Why do I have to endure having a perfectly good source of fun escapism being turned into a lecture about diversity and social justice? I ain’t going to that movie, and I hope nobody else does either.
What has this to do with the climate change debate, you ask? Well, nothing. Sorry.
Ties in with the whole ‘woke’ theme. One of the extreme feminists here in Australia wants to change the names of anatomical parts that include male names or references to gods, such as ‘Adams Apple’ or ‘Achilles’ tendon. Go figure, they really need to get a life.
So what does she suggest? “Eve’s Apples”? Eve didn’t have any “apples”.
What’s next?
Will the vegans demand we change “hamstring” to “kalestring”?
Someone suggested that when your child comes up to you and says that they have a tummy ache, you should say “No dear you have a pain in your descending colon”.
The thought police are covering all bases. Slang, or pet names is part of what differentiates us as groups and makes us interesting. People and language will become so homoginised that we we all be exactly the same. Humor is being adulterated too. Bloody shame.
That’s not the only film genre that has been “woked”. Ghostbusters, Terminator etc etc. It’s mainstream now. Actors are crying “We broke!”…
I say tuff titties Hollywood!
Patrick
And, it seems to me that many of the TV series are being turned into diversity showcases with no concern for acting ability or charisma of the individual. Thus, they are no longer worth watching. Maybe the advertisers will notice.
“… is said to feature a [seasoned career professional who demands high salary] who has been replaced as 007 by a [young person whose lack of experience is forgiven partly by cost savings]”
If you just look at these things in the context of Logan’s Run all the distracting diversity and justice stuff just melts away into clarity.
“Ian Coleman July 18, 2020 at 8:21 pm”
I have read many reviews about this movie and pretty much all others, they all end up with the same conclusion. Terminator was one I had hoped would not be affected not no. Even the Terminator itself, a cyborg from the future, has been emasculated.
“come on. Why do I have to endure having a perfectly good source of fun escapism being turned into a lecture about diversity and social justice?”
This is what happens when the Left takes control of something like the movie industry or the sports industry.
The Left destroys everything it touches because to them everything is about politics. There is no escapism in marxism/socialism/totalitarianism. It’s all politics, all the time.
The Left in the United States is seeking to get every athlete in America to take a knee when the U.S. National Anthem is played before the game.
If this happens, the Left will have effectively destroyed sports in America.
I’m hoping that the sports will be delayed long enough by the virus to make those in charge of sports realize that disparaging the American National Anthem as an official policy is going to backfire bigtime on them, and maybe with a delay and after the heat dies down, the sports owners and promoters will find another way to support George Floyd and those like him.
I won’t watch a sports event where the players take a knee during the U.S. national anthem and I’m betting there are a lot of others out there just like me.
The NFL and their cowardly commissioner are rolling the dice with their stupidity about kneeling. Leave the American flag and the American national anthem out of it. Period.
Don’t tell us you are not dispareging the American flag and anthem. We have eyes and ears, we can see and hear, and we see and hear what you are doing. Don’t do it. Please don’t do it. I love football but I won’t be watching as long as players kneel and disparge the nation that gave them the chance to be on the field in the first place.
Ungrateful, ignorant so-and-so’s. I don’t take pleasure in watching ungrateful, ignorant so-and-so’s, and wont be watching them.
The NFL’s ratings fell sharply the first time they signed on to this kneeling obsenity. The next time their ratings will fall even more. It wouldn’t hurt my feelings if some conservatives went to the games and did some counter-demonstrations in praise of the American National Anthem and the Flag. Now, I would watch that! 🙂
They’re not even really left-wing are they? There isn’t so much need for real leftist politics in the USA, certainly not a voting majority, so they play the phony-left game, making up phony causes to pander for votes.
Want to befuddle a woke Progressive (I know, they come that way)? Just announce that you aren’t watching any sports whose teams do not proportionately reflect the diversity of the country.
Then watch them turn themselves into pretzels arguing that teams should be selected based on merit.
So, some thoughts from a gas mask professional. I was in the business for 17 years, my dad and I made some money, I and my six sisters have no money problems any more.
None of the fabric masks nor paper masks make an air-tight seal. The fabric masks only prevent you from infecting others, do not protect you in any way at all.
The N-95 masks used in the hospitals also do not protect the wearer, as they Leak. 3M invented a fit test, Saccharine, to show that their product could actually protect hospital workers. N-95 means that five percent of the air can be counted on to slip around the mask, and this varies hugely, lots more to a bit less.
We made legitimate half-mask, and also full-face respirators, with legitimate HEPA fiilters, also a PAPR with legitimate HEPA filters. The problem in hospitals is that the health professional cannot be heard, muffled speech, while wearing a legitimate half-mask, full-face, or PAPR with legitimate HEPA, which means High Efficiency Particulate Air filter, which is essentially an absolute filter, no particles can penetrate it. Including the virus.
PAPR is Powered Air Purifying Respirator, got a fan and a motor and a battery, flows clean air into the Full Face mask from the HEPA filter. We had the best one, battery lasted 16 hours, made money in the asbestos craze of the late 80’s-early 90’s.
3M kills hospital workers with their Saccharin fit test, shows the mask works when it does not, very leaky. I tried to fit a microphone into a good half-mask respirator and connect it to a Blue-Tooth, could work, not cheap to perform.
Do I sound like I know what I am talking about? I do….
If the patient cannot hear what the nurse, doctor, or tech is saying, problems.
Moon
Here in Australia we have the Victorian premiere advocating not even N95 rated masks for mandatory mask wearing which will be in effect soon due to the spike in COVID-19 cases. He advocates a cloth covering of the face, re-useable masks or even washable, home-made, masks. Vic has seen a few more deaths but all well over 70 years old, no details on comorbidity conditions, media assume COVID-19 the cause.
It does not appear that mask wearing is deterring spikes in cases there much if any at all. In California, cases began rising right after stricter masks rules were put into effect.
The masks mandates are being used a badges of obeisance and tests of individual compliance to government mandates.
Comply. You will be assimilated. Resistance is futile.
– Borg Queen.
I’ve encountered problems trying to get a air-tight seal with the cheap-yet-overpriced paper masks. No matter how much adjusting and fiddling, my eyeglasses tend to fog when I exhale into the mask. I’m sure unfiltered air is leaking past when I inhale as well. (Not to mention the accumulation of CO2 behind the mask. I hear CO2 is destroying the planet so it can’t be healthy, right? 😉 )
Put the mask as high as you can on your nose while still being able to see. Works for me. These masks are useless if the wearer is not sick! If the wearer is sick, the mask contains many if not most of the droplets expelled by sneezing, coughing, shouting or singing loudly. That is all they do. Wearing one outdoors is basically useless, and in the car too.
I think using “non-medical face coverings” for virus protection is about as medically useful as wearing a copper bracelet. But masks are “required” her for most indoor public places and public transit, and I don’t feel like being harassed by all the mask pushers out there.
“required here”, not “her”.
Meanwhile in Germany, EV shows that it does not reduce emissions.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1284168363154067459
Insurance Co. will have fun untangling the ‘who’s at fault’ with this one.
Oh that’s hilarious and a bit scary at the same time. I’ve always known that once an EV battery catches on fire, it is a total b*tch to put out. But several EV’s all in close proximity to one another at a charging station and one catches on fire….chain reaction.
The Argentian and Chilenian Andes after heavy storms have up to 7 m snow, even in he Equadorian Andes up to 35 cm snow.
Sincerly Yours
Global Warming
😀
Source
Equador only 30 cm snow, sorry for typo.
It is coder here, too.
https://breadonthewater.co.za/2020/07/07/brrr-it-is-getting-colder/
Should the sats not pick up that the SH is cooling?
Yes, I linked two graphs yesterday, you find it somewhere in the mid of the thread.
Look for “contribution”.
Here the link to my comment in that concern
Is n t that great ?
Dont we just all like the cold?
No 😀
My chilis don’t like it cold either 😀
It is colder here, too.
https://breadonthewater.co.za/2020/07/07/brrr-it-is-getting-colder/
Should the sats not pick up that the SH is cooling?
One of my favorite quotes:
“I have seen this happen before, of course. We should have been warned by the CFC/ozone affair because the corruption of science in that was so bad that something like 80% of the measurements being made during that time were either faked, or incompetently done.”
– James Lovelock
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2010/mar/29/james-lovelock
Great article. That was the period when some alarmists decided to put Lovelock into their dog house. He’s outlived quite a few skeptics that would see him gone.
Now, at 101 it’s relatively easy for “journalists” to manipulate him to give statements that they can use to craft whatever narrative they wish it to be. But I personally know that he thinks the XR mob are buggers and he says that nuclear energy is the only real path to use if one is serious about reducing CO2 emissions from power generation.
Long live James Lovelock, a real scientist/inventor.
” ….. taking up a Medical Research Council post, working on ways of shielding soldiers from burns. Lovelock refused to use the shaved and anaesthetised rabbits that were used as burn victims, and exposed his own skin to heat radiation instead, an experience he describes as ‘exquisitely painful’. ” wikipedia
The continuing floods in China are now a very serious threat to the Three Gorges dam in China. Yesterday the Yangtze had a second flood wave move down the river. Waters behind the Three Gorges dam rose almost 19 meters as a result. That put the water level at the dam 16 meters (total water height of 163.59 meters) above the safe threshold with the flood waters still pushing water levels higher. A display showed that a very serious danger level is now only 11 meters away from 175 meters which is the collapse alert level, and the last stage of collapse threshold is at 185 meters total height.
So 21 more meters of water rise will bring the dam to a critical level. The rain is still pouring down in the upper stretches as new storms move into the headwaters of the Yangtze. … https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-252.61,26.02,1391/loc=101.081,28.009
An interesting thought is that this major flooding is the only thing which can stop Xi Yinping in his goal to rule the world. I think that the CCP used the virus as one of their main tools to gain power in the world. They had all of their ducks in a row to do just that, and then nature stood up to say “Thou shall not pass”. How many other times in history have we seen where the best laid devious plans to control others were defeated by unforeseen circumstances driven by nature?
Floods like this mean famine. Famine means a fight for resources or warfare.
I heard on a recent news broadcast that China has quietly purchased a massive supply of corn, and soy from the US, but note how none of the left wing media reports on that. The last any of those lefty sites were talking about was how the US/Trump had been bamboozled by Xi/CCP, and hot US farmers lost money as a result. None of them have reported on this massive purchase which China HAD to make out of necessity due to massive crop losses from the flooding. There is a YT video which shows that the Chinese nations largest grain supplier (they supply 50% of the grain) has lost a large portion of stored corn to mold. Perhaps the intense rainfall was more than their storage buildings could take, but that is a significant loss of food security for the nation.
Just a thought–what if anything will stop the USG goal to rule the world???
who or what are the USG?
USG== United States Government
What planet are you living on? Trump is pulling troops out of everywhere?
Trump is trying, the deep state isn’t giving in to him very readily. My point is that the US has some 800 military bases scattered around the world. China, that global hegemon as claimed, has two.So my question to you is just which country is attempting to rule the world.
So when does having a military base mean takeover of the world. Can you think of any other possible reason?
Farmer Ch E
To cater for Americans’ insatiable desire to learn foreign languages??
JohnVC: Do these thoughts become stronger when you breathe the fumes from your ty-dyed shirt?
First we need to rule Philadelphia, Chicago and Portland.
That’d be a start. Maybe even New York and San Francisco if we’re ambitious.
Too funny at first thought, but a sobering thought upon further reflection.
Just a thought John, when did you stop beating your wife?
There are stories of Chinese and Norse people meeting in the Arctic. In any case, nature destroyed their great naval fleet about 500 years ago.
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-zhenge-he-treasure-fleet-elite-free-trade-2017-2
Oops, the article that I linked indicated the destruction of the Chinese fleet was largely self inflicted.
Here’s a better account. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/magazine/2018/07-08/china-zheng-he-naval-explorer-sailed-treasure-fleet-east-africa/
Here is the best account. Maps and lots of detail. Some have a fit about the American side of the story.
1421: The Year China Discovered America
Book by Gavin Menzies
The Emperor ordered the fleet destroyed closing China for 200 years.
The Asian Monsoons are particularly strong this year. Solar minimum related to a quiet geomagnetic conditions. Sets up June-July-August mixed Rossby-Gravity waves with a period of about 31 days that are dispersive around lat 29N. Translation: lots of rain still to come mid-August in the 3rd wave.
Joel,
Thanks for the heads up
It will be interesting to see what happens to the West African Monsoon if this forecast pattern for 27th July repeats in August.
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=19.3;-11.1;4&l=rain-3h&t=20200727/2100
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/307956420_West_African_Monsoon_Crosses_the_Sahara_Desert_in_Eumetsat_Monitoring_Weather_and_Climate_from_Space_Date_Time_08_August_2007_0000_UTC_Satellites_Meteosat-9
The China floods started with the evaporation of the warmest SST in the Pacific:
Australian academics fed up with over-paid executive at universities:
https://australianacademic.wixsite.com/website
I agree Matheus, Australian Universities most definitely need a serious overhaul. The Vice Chancellors in Australian Universities are being paid obscene amounts of money, no one is ‘worth’ 1 – 1.5 million dollars plus annually. They have become dependent on overseas students to pay the salaries of senior staff.
I read the link, there were ABC videos at the end of it. I don’t trust the ABC. They are a large part of the problem here in Australia in regard to skewed journalism. I wouldn’t trust them to report the truth.
Same with the BBC in the UK. There is a massive push to de-fund the organisation or at the very least de-criminalize not having a TV license.
Sure, I understand your point of view. But see that right-wing sites are also publicizing the issue:
https://quadrant.org.au
Open Thread.
I’ve noticed a few albino squirrels in my neighborhood the last few years.
But I’ve never seen an albino bird. (A white Cardinal, a white Blue Jay etc.)
Are there such things?
(I know. I could do a google search. But I suspect there are some here that know more than “Google”.)
Yes, there are albino crows.
As there are blackbirds, but rare.
Crows I saw the one or the other partial albino…
Forgot to mention peacocks, they are less rare, afaik.
You are right. It is getting colder. Hence the dry season is coming….
https://breadonthewater.co.za/2020/07/07/brrr-it-is-getting-colder/
Report about the coming drought time here:
https://breadonthewater.co.za/2019/09/22/revisiting-the-87-year-gleissberg-solar-cycle/
Thanks for the replies.
I did do a search today for albino birds.
Pictures of lots of different albino and “partial albino” birds, even albino hummingbirds!
Still waiting to see one at my bird feeders.
PS For those of you living in Bluebird territory, it’s worth paying a little extra for the dried mealworms. It brings them right in.
PPS I saw a bird at a feeder in a local park that was a real puzzle. It looked like the Cardinals that were also feeding there but it’s head was black with no “tuft”.
After many tries to identify the bird, I finally stumbled the most likely ID.
It was a male cardinal. Cardinals do molt so it may have molted all it’s head feathers at once (uncommon). A Cardinals skin is black so that’s why the head was black.
Another possibility is that had a bad case of mites. They can clear them off their body but they can’t reach their own head.
UK double blind testing of interferon b on Covid patients has been SHOWN to reduce the requirements of invasive treatment (intubation) by 75% and to reduce hospitalisation from 9 to 6 days.
Only for the wealthy in US as this is £500 to £1200 in NHS UK Much more in US
Not yet published in peer reviewd papers and no published data yet!!!
Report about the coming drought time here:
https://breadonthewater.co.za/2019/09/22/revisiting-the-87-year-gleissberg-solar-cycle/
Obesity alone increases ones risk of getting sicker, having long-lasting health consequences, and even dying from Covid19. The more obese, the greater the risk. “Obese” is generally defined as having a BMI of over 30. Lifestyle choices – poor diet, and lack of exercise are the most important contributing factor contributing to obesity. Of course, changing one’s lifestyle isn’t easy, however it is said that a “journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.”
https://www.houstonmethodist.org/blog/articles/2020/jun/obesity-and-covid-19-can-your-weight-alone-put-you-at-higher-risk/
And no government official that I know of has said anything about obese people being very much at risk. Fat shaming?
They condemned men to HIV infection, AIDS progression, and excess deaths for the same reason. This time it’s obesity, and, of course, Planned Parent and cross-contamination in medical facilities. There are are also Progressives protesting to sustain transgeographic spread through foreign students correlated with higher tuition to their institutions.
Needless to say (but I’ll say it anyway), even if you aren’t in the obese category, any higher BMI than the ideal (for your age) means a greater risk factor. And of course, boosting one’s immunity is extra important, the greater at risk you are.
Look up the data. If you eliminate smokers from the group, the curve is very flat from low BMI out to past where I am (high BMI). The differences in mortality are well within the standard deviation of the data.
There is something more than just ‘lifestyle choices’ behind the current epidemic of obesity. So far theories have included higher carbohydrate diet, with sugar especially vilified. The video below presents a novel hypothesis in which the vast increase in consumption of polyunsaturated vegetable oils plays a role. It starts out as if it will be soft science but he gets down to the biochemistry eventually. It is a mechanism whereby polyunsaturates can actually produce hunger particularly for carbs.
Yes, it’s a vicious circle, and feeds on itself. Fructose in particular stimulates increased food intake by increasing endorphins (the pleasure response) as well as dampening release of leptin, the hormone which tells us when we’re “full”, so it’s a double-whammy. Not easy to get off that not-so-merry-go-round.
Obese people can have lower blood oxygen saturation levels (e.g., obesity hypoventilation syndrome). Showing up at a hospital with a low blood sat makes the chances of being intubated go way up. And as the chair of an emergency medical department of a major FL hospital said, “…rush intubation is game over!!“