By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
The scale of the Chinese-virus pandemic is now beginning to become visible. Yesterday, the death toll of 59,000 in the United States exceeded the 58,000 in the Vietnam war.
In Europe, 488,764 people died of all causes in the six weeks to mid-April, according to an analysis of data from the European mortality monitoring agency carried out by Sky News. That is 117,641, or 32%, above the 371,302 deaths that would be expected over those six weeks in an average year. Sky comments that while these excess deaths are not necessarily all caused by the pandemic, the majority are likely to have been caused by it.
Across Europe, weeks 14 and 15 were the worst for excess deaths, with 64% above the average in both weeks. In normal times, even a 15% excess-death figure is regarded as exceptionally severe.
Fig. 1. All-cause excess mortality and Chinese-virus mortality to early/mid April 2020.
In most European countries, excess mortality (gray in Fig. 1) has greatly outstripped reported deaths from the Chinese virus (blue). It is likely that most of the additional excess deaths are also attributable to the virus but have not been reported as such.
As Fig. 2 shows, the four countries with the greatest peaks in excess deaths are England, Spain, Belgium and Italy. England recorded the highest number of excess deaths anywhere in Europe for three consecutive weeks (14 to 16). For the past two weeks, England is alone in having scored more than 40% above the average: it did so in two successive weeks.
Sky News also reports that England has had more excess deaths per head of population than Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland. The most likely reason for this high mortality is England’s high population density, which increases the transmission rate of the virus, aggravated by the Government’s month of dithering before locking down the country, which allowed unchecked exponential growth every day.
Fig. 2. Mortality z-scores (%) for various European countries, weeks 1-16 of 2020.
Lack of sunshine contributing to widespread Vitamin-D3 deficiency among the large elderly population is another possible factor: of all the various nostrums for reducing the probability of infection and severity of symptoms, the one that has been demonstrated by a meta-analysis of clinical trials involving at least 10,000 patients to be efficacious against respiratory viruses is daily supplementation with 10,000 units (25 micrograms) of Vitamin D3.
The darker the skin, the more likely is Vitamin D3 deficiency in sunless, northern climes. The large immigrant population in Britain has proven more susceptible to the Chinese virus than the Caucasian population – another reason why the UK figures are so bad. Finally, the Government failed to provide clear, timely instructions to care-homes for the elderly, where there have been thousands of hitherto-unreported Chinese-virus deaths.
The Netherlands, France and Switzerland also saw a steep rise in excess deaths. In Scandinavia, not so much. In Denmark and Norway, the deaths so far are what would be expected in a normal year. However, no-lockdown Sweden shows a small but significant excess already, and, based on the date of the tenth Chinese-virus death, which in Sweden was March 18, against March 7 in Spain, March 12 in the UK and February 25 in Italy, the next few weeks will reveal whether the no-lockdown strategy has been a success. Even then, the greater severity of the pandemic in territories where population densities are a lot higher than in Sweden would not have allowed those territories safely to avoid lockdowns altogether.
England will be the worst-affected country in Europe. In one recent week, 22,351 deaths were recorded: more than in any other week since modern records began (Fig. 3).
Fig. 3. Weekly all-cause mortality, England & Wales, 1970-2000.
In England, as in the other worst-affected countries, the discrepancy between Chinese-virus deaths and total excess deaths is substantial (Fig. 4), suggesting that thousands more may have died of the virus than official death-counts show. Notoriously, HM Government has until now excluded deaths outside hospitals from the daily counts it announces. From today, however, under pressure from the news media, it will count the deaths properly.
Fig. 4. Chinese-virus and “other” deaths against mean all-cause mortality, England & Wales.
Sky News has commented that were it not for the lockdown in the UK the death count might well have ended up in the hundreds of thousands.
Sir David Spiegelhalter, the Professor of the Public Understanding of Statistics at Cambridge, said on All Fools’ Day that, since the Chinese virus chiefly strikes the aged and infirm, many of them would soon have died in any event – a viewpoint that has hitherto been echoed, regrettably, by some commenters here.
Now, just four weeks later, the very sharp increase in excess deaths not only in Britain but also in other European countries shows that the victims of the Chinese virus are dying significantly sooner with the virus than without it.
Our daily graphs show that the daily compound growth rate in estimated active cases remains positive in some of the countries we are tracking – notably the United States, England and Sweden. In Britain, at any rate, the lockdown will not be ended until the rate is well below zero. The Prime Minister has been quoting Cicero: salus populi suprema lex.
As today’s graphs (Figs. 5-6) show, the global daily compound growth rate in estimated active cases – the key indicator of how bad the pandemic will eventually prove to be, and of whether ending lockdowns will be a prudent step – is zero in the world excluding China and occupied Tibet, where the numbers are fictitious.
Tomorrow I shall provide a simple mathematical wrinkle that will allow anyone to convert any compound active-case growth rate below 0% into an estimate of the total cases that would eventually arise if that negative growth rate were to persist.
Fig. 5. Mean compound daily growth rates in estimated active cases of COVID-19 for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 1 to April 28, 2020.
Fig. 6. Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 8 to April 28, 2020.
Chinese Virus that crippled American economy is twice as lethal as playing Russian roulette with a six shooter if you are going to a British hospital with the CV infection.
“More than a third of NHS patients ill enough to be admitted to hospital with Covid-19 have died, a rate comparable to that seen in ebola wards in Africa, scientists said today.
Researchers gathered data from almost 17,000 patients admitted to 166 NHS hospitals between February 6 and April 18.
By that time 49 per cent had been discharged alive, 33 per cent had died and 17 per cent continued to receive care. ”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/covid-19-death-rates-are-comparable-to-ebola-for-hospital-cases-nhs-study-finds-p75frbq33
Ignorance and fear cause doctors to intubate patients early, when they probably shouldn’t, with disastrous results.
Based on icisil saying so … strong evidence right there 🙂
That could only be said by someone who hasn’t been paying attention, or who has an agenda, or who is in denial, or who is just damn ignorant, or something like that. I’m merely repeating what some doctors and medical professionals are saying.
Not seeing any references to any actual doctors. Not sure what a medical professional is, I understand the term health professionals but that is just nurses, radiographers and admin staff etc.
I can’t repeat everyone’s name every time I make a point.
German Physician Explains His Alternative Ventilation Strategy for COVID-19
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/929609?src=soc_tw_200429_mscpedt_news_mdscp_ventilator&faf=1
COVID-19 Pneumonia: Only Some Cases Are Like Severe ARDS
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/928807
https://twitter.com/drjohnm/status/1250037261024059394
https://twitter.com/signaturedoc/status/1250072724057264128
One view allowed censored WattsUpWithThat webpage.
How about unlocking my posts?
astonerii
One’s views should never be censored unless they breach guidelines that show they are obviously distasteful, racist, hateful, abusive or even off-topic or trolling. In general, WUWT allows a broad range of criticism unlike the Guardian who has banned me 5 times for basically just disagreeing with the content of an article or post.
What is it you think you posted to get it censored?
I posted what exponential growth would look like if Sweden were not succeeding. Apparently they cannot handle the truth. If it were the exponential growth that they claimed it should be they should be up to at a minimum 500 deaths a day. But instead they are actually past their peak.
We can reduce the covid-19 fatality rate by a factor 10.
Our entire population is significantly ‘Vitamin’ D deficient, Calcium deficient, Magnesium deficient, and Zinc deficient.
This is the biggest scandal in medical history. And you absolutely will not believe the amount of peer reviewed studies that support that statement.
Hey big surprise. Our bodies require ‘Vitamin’ D and 80% comes from sunlight. Six months of the year it is absolutely impossible for white people, regardless of temperature, in Northern countries to make sufficient Vitamin D.
‘Vitamin’ D is a proto hormone that is used in 200 microbiological functions in our body. We need this chemical. If we get it and some minerals then we do not get cancer.
Current Recommended Vitamin D – 600 UI
Amount required ‘conservatively’ low – 4000 UI to reduce 70% of most common diseases including cancers.
Correcting the herd ‘Vitamin’ mineral deficiencies will reduce our herd medical costs by roughly 50%. In the Canada, system that fact and the fact that…
Hundreds of thousands of Canadians are dying every year and hundreds of thousands of Canadians are suffering with painful, expensive, debilitating diseases, because of a preventable Vitamin and mineral deficiency and to make it worse
Those people who are most Vitamin D deficient are Canadians who have dark skin.
There is going to be an emotional explosion, when the young and not so young Canadian snowflakes, who are Big Bang nerds find out.
The facts are not complicate. And the people are organized and looking for real cause.
Correcting the ‘Vitamin’ D/Calcium deficiency reduces the incidence of breast cancer by 70%, eliminates type 1 diabetes, reduces type 2 by 40%, reduces the incidence of multiple sclerosis by 64%, and so on,
https://www.grassrootshealth.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/disease-incidence-prev-chart-051317.pdf
Correcting only the Vitamin D deficiency reduces the incidence of flu by 50%.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/03/150323142839.htm
Zinc deficiency linked to immune system response, particularly in older adults
Mr Astley is correct to say that rectifying Vitamin D3 deficiency is crucial. Martineau et al. (2017), in a meta-analysis of 10,500 patients treated with Vitamn D3, found that daily doses of 1000 IU (25 mcg) were better than weekly bolus doses, and that in patients with vitamin D both the incidence and severeity of respiratory viral infections was reduced by not 50% but 70%.
And still HM Government has not recommended that everyone should take vitamin D supplenetation as a prophylactic.
Having suffered from low vitamin D in the past ( too much working inside)
I simply get a shot every 3 months here in Korea, along with daily supplements.
This is a NO REGRETS option
I form no opinion on the issue of its effectiveness against covid 19
Science may someday render a verdict. However, it is odd that governments don’t
recommend no regrets actions.
You could also walk around in a hazmat suit which would give you much higher odds of survival … do you think the government should recommend everything you can do to minimize your risk?
I’m worried about back coronavirus. Will it raise our temperatures by 33C?
Sadly, this virus tragedy is being used in a cruel way to sell climate action at the highest levels of this movement.
https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/04/29/numnut-un-bureaucrat/
Further to Monckton’s comments about Vitamin D, a very recent blog post by Dr. Malcolm Kendrick, worth reading: https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/04/28/covid-update-focus-on-vitamin-d/
On the mdelling front
This looks more promising than what has been used
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-track-covid-.html
Lord Monckton-san:
Just a few points:
1) From the excess death data you presented, it again seems very likely the Swedish model worked best and the global economic lockdown policy was a complete disaster.
2) Since Sweden will likely obtain Wuhan flu herd immunity in May, their Wuhan flu deaths will be much lower than counties who shutdown their economies when the next flu season starts in October.
3) The global economic shutdown has ironically destroyed/bankrupted the global hospital/medical staff systems because people have virtually stopped going to hospitals, except for emergency medical care, so rather than preventing hospitals from being overwhelmed, the shutdown destroyed them with huge decrease in operating revenues..
4) Because so many people have stopped going to hospitals, there will soon be an increase in excess deaths from: heart attacks, cancer, strokes, diabetes, kidney/liver failure, etc,, that would have been preventEd had they gone for regular medical checkups.
5) The global economic shutdown is putting a tremendous strain on the food/farming/meat industries and there WILL be food shortages this year and next, which will only increase the longer this insane economic shutdown continues. How many excess deaths will global food shortages cause?
It’s estimated 100 million people in the poorest counties are on the verge of starvation due to poor crops and the recent locusts plague. How many excess deaths will there be in these poor countries if industrialized countries have food shortages?
6) The global economic shutdown will already cause a severe global recession and perhaps even a global economic collapse from all the money printing, government spending, national debts skyrocketing, etc… How many excess deaths will this cause?
Stay safe, Lord Monckton-san.
–SAMURAI April 29, 2020 at 8:29 pm
Lord Monckton-san:
Just a few points:
1) From the excess death data you presented, it again seems very likely the Swedish model worked best and the global economic lockdown policy was a complete disaster.–
What is exactly the Sweden model?
It seems that the Sweden model is not to lockdown “as hard” and then have other people complain, and the Swedes saying “We going to do it our way”.
The Sweden model was already a disaster. They failed too much, in regards in beginning in protecting their elderly population, but then they corrected that failure, by using better ways of protecting their older population. But that failure was costly.
Sweden deaths per million is 244 deaths per million.
Florida deaths per million is 59 or 1/4 of deaths per million as Sweden.
Why not talk about the Florida model?
Or what about Finland: 37 deaths per million or 1/6th of Sweden’s death per million.
Or Norway: 38 deaths per million.
The only thing which seems notable or exceptional, is I think Sweden allows kids to go to school, though I don’t know all the details of this.
But opening public school/daycare {or never closing them} is good idea or good model to follow.
Though can’t have the world use Sweden model, because Sweden is different and it has relatively low population density. {other than let kids go to school, that can be a global solution}
“2) Since Sweden will likely obtain Wuhan flu herd immunity in May, their Wuhan flu deaths will be much lower than counties who shutdown their economies when the next flu season starts in October.”
An important part of what Sweden is doing is isolating it’s elderly, and so, they are not getting herd immunity.
-It’s estimated 100 million people in the poorest counties are on the verge of starvation due to poor crops and the recent locusts plague. How many excess deaths will there be in these poor countries if industrialized countries have food shortages?-
There is not a food shortage, and there might not be much of a meat shortage.
We might still have toilet paper shortage- but it wasn’t caused by the lockdown.
Anyways many US states are beginning to creep out of lockdown. They took too long- I blame the media for the delay.
Gabaiki-san:
1) Many countries that foolishly implemented economic shutdowns have higher death rates/million: Belgium, France, Spain, Italy, UK, Netherlands, etc.
The insane economic shutdown policies didn’t greatly reduce deaths, plus, when the flu season starts again October, Sweden’s deaths will be few and all other countries without herd immunity will suffer immensely.
2) I’m in the food industry, and I talk with food manufactures all around the world on a daily basis. There already is a food shortage and it will become much worse the longer this insane global economic shutdown continues…
You didn’t even address my concerns of the global economic recession (or perhaps even an economic collapse) which will occur because of the insane and ineffective global economic shutdown.
–Gabaiki-san:
1) Many countries that foolishly implemented economic shutdowns have higher death rates/million: Belgium, France, Spain, Italy, UK, Netherlands, etc.–
With these EU countries, they didn’t really have a choice regarding lockdown,
Just like China didn’t have a choice. They had a choice of style of lockdown- china chose
to beat women on street who didn’t wear face masks, and welded people into their buildings, and etc.
EU countries had different style, but all had to do a lockdown. In US it was more about making a choice, and some US states didn’t lockdown.
I would say New York State made a choice to lockdown, before it had to lockdown, but New York State delayed too long before deciding to enter lockdown, and the State and City made a number of other mistakes {mostly the city with it’s really dumb mayor who made the most of the mistakes}.
“The insane economic shutdown policies didn’t greatly reduce deaths, plus, when the flu season starts again October, Sweden’s deaths will be few and all other countries without herd immunity will suffer immensely.”
Well, one aspect of lockdown {which China didn’t do} was stop international air travel, and Trump was one of first {but not the first} to stop Air travel from China {except to bring back any Americans that wanted to return to US}. I would imagine not many Chinese chose to return to China- from any country.
And I think the lockdown in terms of air travel, was the best action taken by US in regards to any other lockdown measure. So first with China, and next with Europe. Europe should stopped air travel from China before the US did, and then Europe could decided whether they wanted to stop air travel from the US. Or Europe shutting down air travel to China, should been much easier then compared to US {I guess EU imagined it was a superpower- Russia didn’t have any problem with the issue- but Russians tend to be practical}.
–2) I’m in the food industry, and I talk with food manufactures all around the world on a daily basis. There already is a food shortage and it will become much worse the longer this insane global economic shutdown continues…–
Nope, we are actually at war, and Trump is invoking his war power- that means food industry is like medical workers, and you guys are now, soldiers in the war effort.
I don’t know if guys match the heroes of the medical workers, but I suggest you give a twirl.
“You didn’t even address my concerns of the global economic recession (or perhaps even an economic collapse) which will occur because of the insane and ineffective global economic shutdown.”
Well it’s like running from the bear, and the US will run faster.
So, hopeful other people can keep up.
I am, worried about South America.
Gbabaiki-san:
You’re just repeating yourself and are unable to refute with evidence any of my points of concern with economic shutdowns and why they’re meaningless and worse than the disease itself…
If world governments don’t immediately start to phase out these insane shutdown policies, the economic and social repercussions will be much worse than the Wuhan flu.
‘What is exactly the Sweden model?”
there is no such thing.
you have Swedish policy but POLICY does not describe how people actually BEHAVE
people continue to make the mistake of comparing policies as opposed to behavior.
Steven-san:
The “Swedish Model” involves NOT: insanely shutting down the entire economy, closing schools, running up massive national debts to compensate corporations and people thrown out of work by crazy government mandates, destroying currencies by profligate money printing, arresting people for playing catch ball or driving down the street, etc…
It means people exercising common sense personal hygiene protocols of mask wearing, hand washing, not shaking hands, suspending large events of over 50 people, and most importantly, protecting the most vulnerable demographic of 65+ with comorbidities as much as possible until herd immunity or a vaccine/drug regimen is developed.
The Swedish model works and government shutdowns are completely insane.
“The Swedish Model” Consequences:
“The country has recorded 2462 deaths on Thursday night, but the number will end between 10,000 and 20,000, says biologist Uno Wennergren and math professor Tom Britton to the Swedish TV station SVT on Wednesday night. – This is serious. That is why it is of the utmost importance that we manage to keep the current rate of infection, says Tom Britton.
And I have to agree with Mosher that it is more about behavour tha politics.
Nobody-san:
Sweden is expected to hit herd immunity by the middle of May.
There are currently 2,500 deaths, which may hit 6,000 Sweden hitsherd immunity for a fatality rate of 0.1%, which is the same as the regular flu….(6,000/6 million)
Even if it’s 10,000 deaths, that’s a 0.16% fatality rate…
imprtant reading
http://systrom.com/blog/the-metric-we-need-to-manage-covid-19/
what you need to understand abut R0
http://systrom.com/blog/the-metric-we-need-to-manage-covid-19/
Lockdown analysis by state
http://systrom.com/blog/the-metric-we-need-to-manage-covid-19/
it is from the founders of instgram
http://systrom.com/blog/predicting-coronavirus-cases/
Steven, model Latin America and South America. And perhaps Africa, but I don’t Africa is likely going a problem, before South America, particularly Brazil with pop of about 200 million, and currently a death
per million of 26 and total deaths of 5,513
Brazil might better numbers than most of South America. I would not trust Venezula’s numbers any more than I trust China’s.
Gbaikie-san:
Souther Hemisphere’s flu season is from May~October, which is why relatively few Wuhan flu deaths have so far been reported there.
Let’s see what happens with Wuhan flu deaths in Southern-Hemisphere countries over the next 5 months during their flu season before making comparisons between Southern and Northern Hemisphere Wuhan deaths…
Brazil is already worst then what China reported, China reported 3 per million, which obviously problematic, but I mean total death of 4,633 {in country with more 6 times to population of Brazil}.
But in Brazil the spread has been slower. Well, maybe not, depending on when you imagine it actually started in China.
But I think it’s been slower due to lack of things which make this virus catch fire.
Brazil has reported 79,685 total cases, and think there is more then 300,000 people in Brazil who have the virus.
And btw, when China was first reporting peaking at around 80,000 cases, I also thought China also had more than 300,000 cases {at least}.
And currently, China tens of millions who have virus {at least}.
But also think US has tens of million of people infect with china virus {maybe less and maybe more}. And EU has much more than US {more died in EU and EU has much larger total pop than US}.
SAMURAI-san
I mentioned this before, but it was so good, I am going to say it again.
US is a superpower. And that means {whether we like it or not} we have
to take responsibility for the rest of the World.
So, you can think about US lockdown as saving the rest of the world.
Or you think about not locking down as war crime against the rest of the world.
So, China and WHO committed a war crime against the rest of world, and US would
be doing a similar thing, if the US didn’t lockdown.
And that is why China is not a superpower, nor will it ever be one.
Gbaikie-san:
You should read the US Declaration of Independence and the Constitution to learn what the true purpose of the US is…
The sole purpose of the US Federal and State governments is simply to protect and defend the inalienable individual rights of life, liberty and property of US citizens…not to be the world’s piggy bank/police force…
Yes, the US’ Federalist system of limited government and a free enterprise economy are the examples the rest of the world would be wise follow, and we should lead by example by immediately phasing out the incredibly stupid and disastrous Wuhan flu economic shutdown while there is still time to avert a major global recession/depression or perhaps even one of the worst global economic collapses in modern human history..
–Yes, the US’ Federalist system of limited government and a free enterprise economy are the examples the rest of the world would be wise follow, and we should lead by example by immediately phasing out the incredibly stupid and disastrous Wuhan flu economic shutdown while there is still time to avert a major global recession/depression or perhaps even one of the worst global economic collapses in modern human history..—
I think we getting there.
And I hope we get some baseball, soon.
Shutting down Basketball, made sense, but Baseball should have continued.
between country comparisons are not that interesting.
Even comparisons between states dont tell you that much.
How many cases in Kenya? Not many, but in lockdown.
shocking
https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1255479750593859584
Sorry I laughed, we talked about this ages ago … goto figure 2.2.5
https://www.aihw.gov.au/getmedia/941d2d8b-68e0-4883-a0c0-138d43dba1b0/aihw-aus-221-chapter-2-2.pdf.aspx
Nothing to see here move along 🙂
https://www.wnd.com/2020/04/microbiologists-testing-shows-lockdowns-actually-harmful/
Your faith in lockdowns doesn’t take into account that deaths in the UK peaked on 8 April and in London on 4 April. These correspond to infection peaks 21 days prior on 18 March and 14 March respectively – 6 days and 10 days before lockdown began on 24 March. Similar results can be shown elsewhere such as in New York where hospitalisations plateaued on 25 March just three days after lockdown began meaning infections plateaued much sooner. Official figures from Germany and Switzerland also show that the reproduction rate fell below 1 before lockdown was introduced.
If infections peaked or plateaued before lockdown the lockdown cannot be responsible. Instead it must be a combination of the lighter measures introduced earlier, public awareness, and a pre-existing resistance in the population. These are the key facts that lockdown proponents are not addressing.
“Fauci co-authored an article published March 26 in the New England Journal of Medicine predicting the fatality rate for the coronavirus will turn out to be like that of a “severe seasonal influenza.”
This is turning out to be correct.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
Yes richard, purely as a function of deaths per number of infections, COVID-19 is likely close to bad “normal” flu (i.e. not 1918 flu). But there are going to be a lot more infections than with normal flu. It’s very infectious plus it’s new therefore little to no immunity in the unexposed population and no vaccine. That means more deaths overall.
It does require more intervention than flu. It just doesn’t require nation-destroying lockdowns.
“Sequential CQ / HCQ Research Papers and Reports
January to April 20, 2020
Executive Summary Interpretation of the Data In This Report
The HCQ-AZ combination, when started immediately after diagnosis, appears to be a safe and efficient treatment for COVID-19, with a mortality rate of 0.5%, in elderly patients. It avoids worsening and clears virus persistence and contagious infectivity in most cases”
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1545C_dJWMIAgqeLEsfo2U8Kq5WprDuARXrJl6N1aDjY/preview?pru=AAABcevaHso*wI-0lE54xujKNIM6mnOjsA#
This is older news, but news to me:
Patterns of COVID-19 Mortality and Vitamin D: An Indonesian Study
–Abstract
This is a retrospective cohort study which included two cohorts (active and expired) of 780 cases with laboratory-confirmed infection of SARS-CoV-2 in Indonesia. Age, sex, co-morbidity, Vitamin D status, and disease outcome (mortality) were extracted from electronic medical records. The aim was to determine patterns of mortality and associated factors, with a special focus on Vitamin D status. Results revealed that majority of the death cases were male and older and had pre-existing condition and below normal Vitamin D serum level. Univariate analysis revealed that older and male cases with pre-existing condition and below normal Vitamin D levels were associated with increasing odds of death. When controlling for age, sex, and comorbidity, Vitamin D status is strongly associated with COVID-19 mortality outcome of cases.–
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3585561
–VITAMIN D UPDATE: Patterns of COVID-19 Mortality and Vitamin D: An Indonesian Study. A Facebook friend’s succinct summary of the findings in this study: “Just under half (49.7%) of cases had normal vitamin D status, and only 4% of them died. Just over a quarter (27%) had insufficient vitamin D status, and most of them (88%) died. Just under a quarter (23%) had deficient vitamin D status, and almost all of them (99%) died.”
The study calls anything over 30 ng/ml as normal Vitamin D; my doctor prefers in the neighborhood of 60. No guarantee from these data, though, that more is better, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that were the case. On the other hand, you’d expect lower death rates in Italy and Spain than Germany, then, wouldn’t you? Or are that many Germans going on winter holidays in the Greek islands?–
https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/
{That’s where story was linked from, I forgot to add that link. And that above quote is Glenn Reynolds comment}
1. As I can see – this is typical for the British – east of Germany, this is not Europe anymore (…).
2. In this Europe (but this is, truly, Europe – “dear” lords) – “post-communist”, also in eastern Germany – the tuberculosis vaccine is still being used (in eastern Germany until 1990, similarly in Portugal). In “your” Europe no. But in “our” Europe (and Portugal) the rate of infection CoV-2 (and death) is minimal. Why don’t you use the TB vaccine (most likely it strongly increases CoV-2 resistance) for your risk groups?
3. “…as well as deaths arising from the temporary abandonment of normal treatments for other conditions…” – also as a result of “fear” of the hospital – in people with other deadly diseases. Here, the number of deaths also increases rapidly.
total skeptic April 30, 2020 at 2:04 am
2. In this Europe (but this is, truly, Europe – “dear” lords) – “post-communist”, also in eastern Germany – the tuberculosis vaccine is still being used (in eastern Germany until 1990, similarly in Portugal). In “your” Europe no. But in “our” Europe (and Portugal) the rate of infection CoV-2 (and death) is minimal. Why don’t you use the TB vaccine (most likely it strongly increases CoV-2 resistance) for your risk groups?
In the UK the BCG vaccine was administered to everyone aged ~15, used to be done to us all at school until 2005, after then only to children who were at risk. Given that the most at risk group to COVID19 are the older age groups and in the UK they will have had the BCG vaccine it seems that your hypothesis is refuted (I understand that France also used BCG until 2007).
“daily supplementation with 10,000 units (25 micrograms) of Vitamin D3.”
Typo, think you mean 1000iu?
1000 iu
Can’t trust those numbers. Not with the wonky way they’re counting all respiratory deaths as COVID and the way the flu numbers plumeted. No way. Don’t believe them: https://www.facebook.com/karen.kain/videos/10219742493685403/
COVID-19 understood as lung desease. But what about heart, blood vessels, stomach, brain, skin, liver etc.
“While our understanding of COVID-19 has been progressing relatively quickly, there is still so much we don’t know. This virus appears to be acting like syphilis, “the great imitator,” with so many different manifestations in people—and we don’t know why that is true.” How many deaths are a result of these other ways of infecting?
And what about aftereffects?
There will be lots of premature deaths.
I would clearly stay away from the virus as long as possible.
https://www.iceagenow.info/death-rates-in-the-united-states-have-been-going-down-not-up/
Strict lockdowns are not needed to fight off virus.
Slovakia had soft lockdown from start of epidemic, meaning stay home and reduce outside activity as much as possible.
Mandatory face masks outside of home, thorough searching and testing contacts of positives.
Mandatory 14 days quarantine for people coming from abroad, first in state until test result, then when negative rest home.
Preventive mass testing in high risk communities as gypsies and retirement homes.
Result after 7 weeks is that virus is receding, last days only 13, 6, 2, 3, 7, 5 new cases.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Slovakia
Check daily cases and number of deaths per million graph.
Total number of deaths is today 23 from 1396 total. This is giving whole country 4 deaths per million, best value in Europe by far margins.
Infection is under control, country is making above average 4500 tests per day, 1 per 1220 people daily.
It looks that virus is on track to be eradicated. R0 is under 1 and daily cases are going down.
Currently economics is working on 70%, people are normally working with masks, shops are open with hygienic measures, people can travel, can freely go to nature, or for sport, restaurant can be open from window or for delivery. Anybody can go for a walk or bike only face mask is must between people (not family).
Closed are bars and human contact services.
What was point of success? Immediate action after first case, lockdown excluding work in first 2-3 weeks of epidemic start, face masks ordered after 1 week of start.
Lockdown is most important on start of epidemic, when curve is exponential and most steep. After that people will learn how to protect themself, will get masks, will use to social distancing.
When you prevent first exponential grow of cases, then it is quite easy to slowly end measures and guard your new cases numbers.
There is no miracle in Slovakia’s numbers, just clear head of those making decisions on epidemic start, ordering face masks against advice of WHO and lot of good work.
Easy way was just to let it rampage as other states did. Facts are currently clear, we saved around 3000 lives with costs for economy lower than in states more affected.
But in England, alone, within Europe, excess mortality for age group 15-64, plumb normal for the time of year elsewhere, which age group mortality typically relatively unaffected by coronaviruses or colds, spikes in similar fashion to the older age groups:
http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/images/momo_ages_200429.png
So, either England had, for one week, an atypical, worst, healthcare outcome for the working population on the continent of Europe or, inconceivable, improbable, incredible though it may be, the ONS figures may have been massaged somewhat to produce this recent spike in mortality across the board……..
Badger, nodding gravely, said to Mole ‘Of course, once you have excluded the impossible, what you are left with, however improbable, must be………..’
Do you think that’s what might have happened? It is odd. How do you think they massaged it?
The compilation pulls in numbers from all over place and time…..some early, some late, some forgotten, some potentially double counted, inadvertently, obviously, and then corrected, later.
Anyone who has ever worked for a government organisation will recognise how the culture can, in times of panic, operate.
Top down pressure, imperatives, are particularly effective in large, monolithic, organisations, both public and private.
But happy to admit that I could be completely wrong and that there could be, no doubt, an entirely plausible explanation for a sudden rash of working age mortality, only in England out of the whole of Europe, for one week…..
Right. I wonder what proportion of the excess deaths in that age group were linked to Covid-19?
There is unlikely to ever be any useful answer to that question because Covid 19 became a notifiable disease in Britain 05 March so has to be mentioned by any death certificate where present.
And:
‘….we use the term “involving COVID-19” when referring to deaths that had COVID-19 mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, whether as underlying cause or not.’
So:
‘There were 3,912 deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) that occurred in March 2020 in England and Wales; of these, 3,372 (86%) had COVID-19 assigned as the underlying cause of death.’
But:
‘We define a pre-existing condition as any health condition mentioned on the death certificate that either came before the coronavirus (COVID-19) or was an independent contributory factor in the death.’
And:
‘Of the 3,912 deaths that occurred in March 2020 involving COVID-19, 3,563 (91%) had at least one pre-existing condition, while 349 (9%) had none. The mean number of pre-existing conditions was 2.7.’
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/latest
So England has 86% of mortality ‘involving Covid 19’ assigned to Covid 19 as the underlying cause, despite the average of underlying conditions amongst 91% of deaths ‘involving Covid 19’ being 2.7 underlying conditions, whereas in Italy that figure of deaths ‘involving Covid 19’ actually assigned to Covid 19 as the underlying cause is estimated to be 12% .
Everyone clear?
Anthony Watts, can I get an explanation as to why my 2 posts have been censored?
Interesting paper how co-morbidities affect years lost in deaths by COVID-19:
https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75