Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
I kept hearing so much about the Australian bushfires being the result of or driven by “climate change” or “global warming” that I thought I’d take a look at just what’s happened to the rainfall there. Here are a hundred and nineteen years of Australian rainfall.
Here’s the curious part. The earth has been undergoing a mild warming pretty steadily since 1970, about the last half-century.
But although the last couple years have been dry, the last half-century in Australia has been wetter than the previous half-century. Not dryer. Wetter. And a lot wetter.
In fact, anyone under about sixty years old has never experienced dry Australia.
Now, I mentioned this and showed this graph on Twitter, where I post as @weschenbach, and someone said something like “Well, Australia’s a big area to average. Maybe it’s wetter in the middle and less so on the coast.”
That seemed unlikely. I mean the moisture is coming in from the ocean and so the coasts are generally wetter than the outback … plus with overall more rain, the middle would have to be pretty wet.
But I’m a man for data over theory, so I went back to the same source listed above, and I got the rainfall records for New South Wales where the fires are. Here are those results.
And once again, yes, the last few years have surely been dry in NSW … but again, that’s weather. And once again, the recent half-century has been much wetter than the first half of the 20th century. Not dryer. Wetter.
Finally, forest management experts have been warning the Australian government over and over again for years that neglecting forest management and giving up on fire hazard reduction burns was piling up fuel in the bush, and that it was only a matter of time and a dry year before catastrophe struck … here’s a particularly strong warning from 2015, and it is far from the only one.
But nooo … misguided green activists wouldn’t hear of that. They protested the fire hazard reduction burns.
Hilariously, the Australian Broadcasting Commission has deleted their article on the activists’ protest because it doesn’t fit the “CLIMATE EMERGENCY!” narrative … bunch’a deceptive left-wing idiots who don’t know that the intarwebs never forget.
And when you add the incredibly high fuel load in the oily flammable eucalyptus forest to the fact that more than a dozen arsonists have been arrested for starting many of the fires, it should come as no surprise to anyone that these fires have been devastating, destructive, fatal, and horrible …
It should come as no surprise because they were warned. Clearly. Repeatedly.
Now, I live in the fire zone in California, and so I have great sympathy and compassion for those who are in the path of the fires in Australia. And our fire problem here is inter alia for the same reason—abysmal forest management practices driven by Green activists with hearts of gold and brains of oatmeal.
But those blaming it on climate change? Look, if the CO2 emissions in Australia went to zero, it might make the earth cooler by about 0.05°C by the year 2050 … call me crazy, but I don’t see Australians giving up on air travel as being a very effective fire-fighting strategy.
My best regards to everyone on a lovely clear night,
w.
Addendum: As is my custom, I politely ask that when you comment, you quote what it is you are discussing, so we can all know who and what your subject might be.
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Since 1939, there have been at least 18 major bushfire inquiries in Australia, including state and federal parliamentary committee inquiries, COAG reports, coronial inquiries and Royal Commissions. And no doubt there will be further inquiries following the recent widespread fires.
The major findings: https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Former_Committees/agric/completed_inquiries/2008-10/bushfires/report/c02
1. There has been grossly inadequate hazard reduction burning on public lands around country towns.
2. Local knowledge and experience is being ignored by State government bureaucracy, supposedly in the interests of protecting forest areas.
3. There is a lack of political will in some jurisdictions to comprehensively plan, fund and implement fuel hazard reduction strategies on fire prone public land.
http://www.waclimate.net/very-hot-days-eastern-australia.html analyses the annual frequency correlation between rainfall, very hot days (40C+) and average maxima in eastern Australia – including a spotlight on the 20 ACORN stations (with a start year of 1910) in the drought/bushfire zone of southern Queensland and all of NSW.
ACORN 1, ACORN 2 and RAW historic temperatures are compared. In the long term across eastern Australia since 1910, rainfall is up (mostly in the northern half) and very hot days are down. However, at the 20 ACORN stations in the bushfire zone, rainfall has been in decline for about 30 years (following increased rainfall from 1950 to 1990).
Reduced firebreaks, increased human population/fire cause, delayed arrival of monsoon rainfall, warm air over Antarctica for several months, and low rainfall in the drought zone since 2015 have combined to spark the current bushfire crisis.
Most of the points made by Willis are correct and the linked page (desktop, not mobile) is a more comprehensive look at the rainfall-temperature correlation across Australia. The page’s top left links are also worth exploring, including data showing that ACORN has apparently robbed Australia of its 100F heatwave world record set in the early 1920s, with that world record now unwittingly held by America.
Excellent work Chris.
BOM must hate you!
Please don’t forget this guy:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/fined-for-illegal-clearing-family-now-feel-vindicated-20090212-85bd.html
If you google ‘fines for cutting down trees Australian, you will see how cult-like the greenie phillosophy is in Australia. Ludicrous penalties, you would probably get less in a workplace injury through negligence claim.
Aussie fires
The BOM is a tad slow in getting the temperature observation summaries up for the spring months, but the general impression is that the southern states actually had a cooler spring than normal. Queensland a little warmer. The BOM reported that this was a function of a sudden warming in the stratosphere which has resulted in polar vortices impacting on southern states. So global warming not an issue. Cool dry was the prevailing condition. And this is exactly what Roy Spencer observed in the recent Californian fire season! Of course the common denominator and the word that should not be spoken is EUCALYPTUS.
The eucalyptus is a plague in OZ, and it causes similar problems in California, Portugal, Morocco, Spain … and is devastating in Africa where the problem of fires is accentuated by the eucalyptus driving the water table so low that the locals are unable to get at it.
Grow a more amenable tree!
“The BOM is a tad slow in getting the temperature observation summaries “
Data and maps are there, even for December. Here is November maximum anomaly. Almost the entire coast of NSW was at least 3°C above average; the inland ranges, where the fires come from, about 4°C higher. SE Qld was hot too.
“The eucalyptus is a plague in OZ”
It is, of course, the universal native forest tree. And if it weren’t for eucalypts, in much of the area forests could not exist. They are uniquely adapted to the climate which would be too warm and dry for most other types.
Yes, uniquely adapted to fire. Without fire Eucalypts would not have evolved. They shed their bark twigs and leaves every year to create a fire bed so they can regenerate. Yet we continually hear the BS from enviro nutters who claim climate change has created fires in areas that have never been burnt before, yet charred eucalypts are found. We are hearing it with the current fires, we heard it with previous fires.
Until they can tell the truth and or learn the facts, green credibility will continue to go down the gurglar. And thank god for that.
I’m an old timer now but when I was younger I had the opportunity to hear stories from old timers about the state of vegetation around 150 years ago in the central east coast of Australia. Large areas that are now dense with shrubby vegetation and taller trees were open grassland with widely scattered large eucalypts. It takes a moment to consider what would have happened to fires prior to European arrival. They would have burned out with nobody to stop them.
I envy you. It is very rare for me to meet a person more than 110 years old.
ColinD, that is similar to a story my 93 year old father related to me. He was talking to an old timer and related that he was felling timber on a certain well known historic property. The old timer told him “You know, I was mustering there in the 1920s, and there was not a tree on the entire place”.
There’s been some vegetation changes over the century.
Have a read of this one, page 4;
https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=3d358fcd-bf85-4a5d-9daa-2f3628a55ba7
It’s a .PDF file.
Leftists around the world support eco-wackos’ agendas which assure devastating wildfires will occur: no controlled burns, no removal of accumulated deadfall, no removal of diseased trees, limited clearing of trees along major power lines, ban or severe restrictions of lumber harvesting, ban or severe restrictions on firebreaks, ban or severe restrictions on new fire roads or maintenance of existing ones, ban on limiting tree populations to maximize healthy forests, severe restrictions on building new dams and reservoirs, ban of private landowners to clear deadfall, ban/severe restrictions on private landowners from removing diseased tress or creating firebreaks on their property, etc.
To “fix” their criminal mismanagement, Leftist politicians and bureaucrats remove research papers and memos from their databases that warn of the devastating damage their insane policies and agendas will have on: the environment, loss of life, property damage and adverse economic repercussions…
Moreover, the Leftist MSM refuses to investigate and report on the Leftist enviro-wacko policies that actually cause these horrendous wildfires, and instead blame it on Global Warming and free-market economies…..
The immutable law of Leftist irony….
If only we could be more climate woke like California, then we would have no bushfires……oh, wait
Once it is all burnt it is fixed for about 5 years. The places that have not burnt will get sorted next time around.
The solution is not to build houses in forests. Maybe the property losses are great enough this time to get insurers’ attention and they are more discriminating about what they insure. In those circumstances, property owners will be forced to undertake fire risk management when insurers refuse the risk.
A more expensive option is to raze the National and State forests and replace them with wind and solar power generators. There is enough public land to power Australia if we can also convert every mine and hill top to pumped storage. That should sort the problem in 1000 years or so as China depletes the fossil fuel reserves and CO2 gets back to starvation levels. It could be longer as humans have a habit of underestimating fossil fuel reserves.
We often hear in Australia that the original Australians used fire as a method of hunting. Well they learnt it from birds:
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/australian-birds-have-weaponized-fire
Who knows how long theses birds have been using fire to flush out their prey. Fire is nothing new to the Australian landscape. The extent of current fires is nothing new although intensity is apparently greater due to ridiculously high fuel loads. Each year a fire is “controlled” means it is building fuel load for the following year. More water bombers means more fires controlled and the fuel loads build even greater levels.
Fires have been part of the Australian landscape for thousands, or millions, of years. The recent changes are higher productivity in forests and severely limited commercial logging; meaning there is reduced commercial incentive to manage the fire risk in forests.
Willis,
Look at climateextremes.org.au – The Australian Research Council, Australian Government on “Insight into climate extremes from paleo climate data”-
https://climate extremes.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Nerilie Abram .2pdf
If you look at the South East Rainfall and IPO reconstructions from the Law Dome Ice Core –
. IPO positive phase increases drought risk in Australia
.Eight mega droughts are identified including one 39 year drought (1174-1212 CE), which occurred during an unprecedented century of aridity (1102-1212 CE).
Look at the chart of drought from 1000 CE to 2000 CE. Drought including mega drought in Australia is commonplace.
See Vance 2013 on which the graph is based.
The US material on historical drought is also interesting.
I’m not against some of the arguments, only skeptical.
I googled up “australian fires and aboriginal massacres map” for “one week” sites and both recent historical maps of historical sites of aboriginal massacres and very recent maps of Australia’s fire disasters, with so many in New South Wales and Victoria.
There was significant similarity of general locations for the worst massacres – aboriginal people just shot outright and their bodies thrown onto kerosene fires and burned up – and the general locations for the worst fire disasters.
I feel sad for the fire victims, who obviously did not conduct the massacres, but Australia as a white man’s stolen country seemed to have been receiving payback from the higher universe at last.
If I were an Australian, I would tell the government to repent, apologize, and seek the help of the aboriginal peoples and their traditional method of bush fire reduction, if it’s not too late.
We used to practice good fuel reduction policies back in the ’70s and ’80s without having to reference the “traditional” method of bush fire reduction. And damned if we should have to apologise for incidents that the vast majority of the population were never associated with – that is just more “woke” thinking.
The MSM down here are now trying to mask the backtracking on controlled burnoffs by referencing “traditional aboriginal fire hazard reduction” as the way “forward”. No thanks – let’s call it as it is
Paul Homewood has covered this issue. The link is to a pece describing the coincidence of a particularly strong IOD and Suddern Stratospheric Warming over Antartica this year. Both a weather events and BOM were well aware of this probably happening and the consequences.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/01/05/australia-drought-the-indian-ocean-dipole-sudden-stratospheric-warming/
JimW
Paul Homewood? Hmmmh.
*
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a035.shtml
I think these people above ‘covered the issue’ long time before he ‘did’.
In hte Aussie guardian, you can read an interview of a BoM collaborator:
Dr Andrew Watkins, head of long-range forecasts at the bureau, identified three key factors that have pushed temperatures to record levels – two of them natural, and one of them not.
Australia is currently feeling the impacts of one of the strongest Indian Ocean Dipole events on record.
When the IOD is positive, the waters off Australia’s north-west are cooler, dragging moisture away from the continent and leaving very dry conditions.
On the flipside, Watkins said parts of east Africa had seen devastating impacts from flooding rains, in particular in Somalia, Ethiopia and South Sudan.
“That positive IOD has kept things very dry in winter and spring,” Watkins said. “That sets us up with an extremely dry environment. It has been the second driest year to date and the warmest year to date.”
A second natural driver, Watkins said, was a negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode that was kicked off by warming of the atmosphere high above Antarctica.
The SAM had helped drive the extreme heat in NSW and Queensland, Watkins said, adding to the extreme fire danger. This has also brought drier and warmer air across the continent on westerly winds.”
Yeah.
BOM are latecomers regarding the IOD which was only identified by Japanese researchers in the late 1990’s.
During that decade I had noticed some correlation between historical dry periods in Indonesia and what I knew to be similar dry periods in Victoria Australia. I contacted BOM at the time regarding it and their response was that it was merely coincidence.
About the same time it turns out that a meteorologist who considered that BOM weren’t using data from the likes of the Southern and Indian Oceans left their employment and set up own subscription weather forecasting that did incorporate these and other data successfully achieving a high strike rate with his forecast modelling and a loyal, and grateful, number of subscribers mainly from the agricultural sector.
It also turns out that early British colonialists that moved from India to Northern Australia in the 1800’s had seen the same similarities that I had seen when comparing the weather patterns between India and Australia.
It all became clearer as knowledge of the IOD increased and it was that same meteorologist who put the final pieces in place for me when explaining how all land bordering the IO are subject to the changing patterns of ocean temperatures which is well understood now, but it was only about a decade ago that BOM began to incorporate the IOD into their modelling.
I suspect that the fixation upon the Pacific El Nino/ La Nina had diverted attention away from the IO as they were seemingly being promoted as the answer to everything weather related.
It never rang true to me as we knew that the weather moves west to east and I recall my old man checking the synoptic charts in the newspapers in the 1950’s looking for what weather was moving into or across Western Australia. Even though the IOD had not been identified at that time it is likely that the effects either phase would be having on WA would over time been associated with the weather coming across to the eastern states, particularly Victoria by those who did follow the synoptic charts. I am left wondering as to why it was Japanese researchers and not our own Australian researchers that finally identified it.
when you look at area burnt each year you can the the major parameter..forest management..
A bit more grist for the mill.
This was a few weeks ago, and it’s now equal to the big fire in the 1970s … you remember the 1970s, when some of the same scientists now screaming about “GLOBAL WARMING” were warning us about “GLOBAL COOLING!” …
w.
“This was a few weeks ago, and it’s now equal to the big fire in the 1970s”
That is correctly annotated “far west NSW fires”. There are no forests in the far west. These are fires of semi-desert scrub and grass. In fact, burning of the growth following a wet year.
Here is a radio interview with David Packham someone who knows far more about bush fires than Nick Stokes. He explains that the fires have nothing to do with climate change but everything to do with fuel load. The maximum fuel load that firefighters can deal with is ~3- 4 MW per meter. The fuel load in the current fires is above 30 MW per meter so they are unextinguishable. It is all about fuel load and nothing to do with climate.
https://volunteerfirefighters.org.au/scientist-david-packham-on-whats-really-causing-the-bushfires
Error – Me per metre should be Kw per metre.
Geoff S.
Australia is not even to the half way mark of this ‘fire season’, in other words the worst may be yet to come. According to the agencies the current fires will not be ‘put out’ they will have to burn themselves out.
The 1950s and 1970s were the wettest decades last century and many fires followed because of the grass cover and mostly lit by lightening. There are no fires out west now – there’s no feed because of the drought.
Time Magazine cover had a scary picture of the world covered with Ice around 1974 – The Ice is Returning! or some such.
Willis, this attached file presents information on the worst file in Victoria’s worst fire when one quarter of the state burnt in February 1851. It has been well documented in Government files and newspaper reports but is not part of the collective memories of the public because they never saw any reports on the evening TV news so apparently it never happened.
http://web.archive.org/web/20110406121653/http://www.netspeed.com.au/seforests/black_thursday.htm
“My best regards to everyone on a lovely clear night,”
Dear Willis, would you agree if we translate your article to Dutch and publish it on our website?
(www.groenerekenkamer.nl)
Our readers definitely need this information to counteract the narrative.
Regards
Cyril
Good luck, Cyril. Spread the word in the Netherlands.
In the UK the BBC and Sky are reporting the Australian wildfires extensively. However there is never a mention of pyromaniacs, firebugs or arsonists although a large number have been arrested.
The implication by the MSM is that the weather is very hot because of climate change and that this is causing drier landscapes and more ferocious wildfires. Does 48C start a fire? Does a newspaper burst into flames at 48C? According to Ray Bradbury, paper burns at Fahrenheit 451, about 233C. 48C seems not really a problem.
20 years ago I never thought the UK media could be so controlling as to suppress information to support their narratives. Sad times.
Just look at any of the pictures of burnt out cars homes businesses and outbuildings and what do you see in the background? Burnt out trees all around them and where do the evacuees go for safety? It’s the same deal with the floods in Indonesia at present. Lots more people and property in harm’s way of these weather events.
Willis you say “But although the last couple years have been dry, the last half-century in Australia has been wetter than the previous half-century. Not dryer. Wetter. And a lot wetter.”
Whereas according to Monckton: “The long, severe drought in Australia, culminating in the most extensive bushfires in recent history,”
Care to comment on Monckton’s post?
Phil,
if you study the poster in the attached link you will see what Willis was referring to.
https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/static/products/pdf/australiasvariablerainfall2019.pdf
Doesn’t display properly.
I’m curious whether Aussie police are going to investigate whether any arsonists were paid by environmental groups, like the $70k paid by WWF to arsonists to torch the Amazon basin.
Police have arrested 186 people who have lit fires in NSW and Victoria over the past month.
When the radio screams ‘a bad fire day is coming tomorrow, with high winds and temperatures’ the arsonists know when to act, and do.
Back in November, this happened. When the announcement was made there were no fires but by that evening there were fires all over the place.
A conundrum, how to make people aware of the possible danger, without exciting the fire bugs. Impossible, I’d say.
It seems all of you guys are still not getting it.
The hunger years are here!!!
Due to the extensive rainfall around the equator there will be less clouds and rain available at the higher latitudes.
IOW
the droughts on the higher lats – + higher temps.
in
Europe
America
Argentine
Australia
are here or will start, just from about: now….?
I explained it to you all, did I not?
http://breadonthewater.co.za/2019/09/22/revisiting-the-87-year-gleissberg-solar-cycle/
but WUWT never wants to report on it?
I’m sorry, Henry, but the data doesn’t agree with your hypothesis. Here are the trends in rainfall over the last couple of decades. The increase in tropical rainfall is concentrated in the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). However, there is no sign of the decrease in rainfall in the temperate zones that you claim is happening. All that’s happening is that more tropical water is being evaporated and rained down, without affecting rainfall further from the equator.
Best regards,
w.
PS—I discuss the “Gleissberg Cycle” in a few posts below:
The Tip of the Gleissberg 2014-05-17
A look at Gleissberg’s famous solar cycle reveals that it is constructed from some dubious signal analysis methods. This purported 80-year “Gleissberg cycle” in the sunspot numbers has excited much interest since Gleissberg’s original work. However, the claimed length of the cycle has varied widely.
The Effect of Gleissberg’s “Secular Smoothing” 2014-05-19
ABSTRACT: Slow Fourier Transform (SFT) periodograms reveal the strength of the cycles in the full sunspot dataset (n=314), in the sunspot cycle maxima data alone (n=28), and the sunspot cycle maxima after they have been “secularly smoothed” using the method of Gleissberg (n = 24). In all three datasets, there…
Sharpening a Cyclical Shovel 2016-11-03
There are a number of lovely folks in this world who know how to use a shovel, but who have never sharpened a shovel. I’m not one of them. I like to keep my tools sharp and to understand their oddities. So I periodically think up and run new tests of some of the tools that I use. …
Hi Willis
I am not sure if you read my article.
In my comment I said: …..are here or will start, just from about: now….? The data you bring are not from now, i.e. 2019/2020
I am saying the droughts at the higher lats are only starting [from] now. We have seen it happening now in California and Australia. Last summer in Europe was also already very dry and hot.
It happens every 87 years,
hence the last one in North America was the Dust Bowl drought from 1932-1939.
My apologies, Henry. I did miss the fact that you are making untestable claims about the future. I can say nothing about those, and because there’s no way to falsify that, I’m totally unclear why you brought it up.
Please come back, however, when you have a testable claim.
Best regards,
w.
Dear Willis
We are predicting the future droughts by looking when droughts happened back in the past.
That is what climate scientists are supposed to do: predict the future weather, even if it looks bad….
If you do not support that sentiment I am not sure why you are or claim to be a ‘climate scientist’.
The table I showed in my article claiming the relevant GB cycle (84 years, standard deviation =5.5) is not the only one I can show.
There is more…. if you are interested?
obviously, if truth be told,
surely,
droughts do go together with [more] fire hazard.
Can we at least all agree on that?
Henry Pool January 9, 2020 at 8:37 am
Thanks, Henry, but not on my planet, at least. I’ve proposed many times that climate scientists should stop predicting the future entirely until we can explain the past. And at present, we cannot do that. We know that after the Medieval Warm Period ended the world went into a Little Ice Age … but we don’t know why the MWP ended, or why it ended when it did. We don’t know why it got colder then instead of warmer. We don’t know why following the LIA we didn’t slide into a real glaciation. We don’t know why the LIA ended, or why the world started warming sometime around 1750 and not 1700 or 1850. And we don’t know why it has gradually warmed in fits and starts at ~ 0.5°C per century since then.
And until we can answer those questions about the past climate, we should avoid claiming that we can predict the future climate. All that has done to date has been to lead to a hysterical obsession with an entire series of failed doomcasts of Thermageddon.
That’s the job of a climate forecaster, not a climate scientist. I make no claims that I can forecast future climates, and I’m not sure that’s possible even in theory. I strive instead to understand how the climate works.
Henry, I’ve seen numbers for the so-called “Gleissberg Cycle” ranging from 69 years to 105 years. Even your own data gives results from 76 to 95 years … you seem to think that if you just average those numbers you get the “real” length of the cycle. Me, I think that the huge spread in those numbers means that the “cycle” isn’t stable or persistent in any sense, and certainly not something to rely on.
I’ve given you three studies linked just above, explaining EXACTLY how Gleissberg got his numbers, and the problem with his numbers. I’ve shown that the “Gleissberg Cycle” in the first 2/3 of the sunspot record is totally different from that in the last 2/3 of the record, despite the overlap. I used both CEEMD and Fourier analysis to show that there is no regularity in what is called the “Gleissberg Cycle”.
So me, I do not think that the so-called “Gleissberg Cycle” is a real, unchanging, repeating cycle. Instead, it seems to be one of what I call “pseudo-cycles” which are omnipresent in natural datasets. These seem to be real cycles, but they appear out of nowhere, last for a few periods, and then disappear only to be replaced by some other cycle with some other period.
And they are totally useless for predicting the future.
My best regards to you,
w.
Henry Pool January 9, 2020 at 8:59 am
Sure. Fire danger is an amalgam of inter alia general dryness, temperature, fuel load, dry fuel moisture, presence of ladder fuels, soil saturation, wind, woody fuel moisture, vegetation greenness, terrain steepness, and other measures.
Not sure what your point is here.
w.
Willis
Sometimes the ‘planets’ do seem not to arrive in time, causing the sun to make ‘a warmer period’ or a ‘cooler period’. Do not be confused about that. [I think] It has to do with the DeVries cycle, 210 years.
Or you refuse to believe that too?
https://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/585/2010/npg-17-585-2010.pdf
Perhaps you should study the above mentioned report?
That makes me think now: truthfully, what force on earth do you think exists that made you into a person who can think and decide?
Blessings,
Henry
Henry Pool January 9, 2020 at 10:38 am
I’m sorry, but that makes no sense at all. The timing of the planets can be calculated thousands of years in advance. How could they possibly not “arrive on time”? It’s not a railroad, it’s a dang planet!
Unclear. If the question is do I think that the planets might show up late, no, I don’t believe that at all.
I did study it. Unlike you, I don’t believe things until I run the numbers myself. I was interested in the paper’s claim that there are clear cycles in the GRIP Greenland ice core temperature.
So I went and got, not just the GRIP ice core data, but data from three other Greenland ice cores as well. I figured that if such cycles exist, they should assuredly show up in all four ice cores. I analyzed them using a Fourier periodogram. Here are those results:
Resolution on all of these is 20 years.
As you can see, there is no agreement between them. As just one example, two of them show an 80-year cycle, which you’d think would bolster your case of an 87-year Gleissberg cycle … until you notice that the other two show no such cycle.
In addition, none of those cycles are significant, they’re all on the order of 0% to 7% of the size of the signal, down in the noise.
Anyhow, that’s what I get as a first cut when I “study the above mentioned report” … what did you get?
Darwin. Darwin made me do it.
Thanks,
w.
Willis
Thanks for your replies, it is always enlightening and interesting to discuss things with people who – as a matter of principle – seem to go against all natural ‘cycles’ to explain warming. You are a bit of an outlier here, being skeptical of both natural warming and man made warming? Anyway, we do not agree and I don’t think we ever will.
Note that the warming is real but I think the increase in CO2 is more related to the warming of the oceans than anything else. Henry’s Law, and all that…; you can click on my name to read my report on that, and I would say that warming or cooling is due to the varying amount of UV and IR being let through the atmosphere.
Like I said , there is more evidence for the GB cycle, like the reports mentioned in Table II in the report below:
http://virtualacademia.com/pdf/cli267_293.pdf
perhaps we should again both study Yousef’s report and make a determination where exactly he went wrong?
What I was trying to explain is that the reason we exist is precisely because there are certain built-in brakes, in the sun-earth interaction, preventing earth from boiling up or freezing down completely. For example, we know that if we look at the night sky, at dawn,
we can now see Aquarius. Every 2130 year we enter into a new era of a zodiac sign, until we completed all 12 signs, some 12 x 2130 years from now….It is called precession and it is due to the wobble in earth’s rotation around the sun which changes our view of the universe. Apparently the pyramid builders knew about this… amazing is it not>?
The brakes that I have found, e.g. to keep the sun from getting too hot or too cold can indeed be correlated with the position of the planets. Hence, I found the current GB cycle at 86.5 years and this is the reason I am predicting serious droughts at the higher latitudes e.g. on the big plains of America.
But hey, that is just my opinion, OK? We are still friends. We will talk again in the years to come – which [I think] are going to be tough.