Stockholm University
The ongoing climate changes make it increasingly difficult to predict certain aspects of weather, according to a new study from Stockholm University. The study, focusing on weather forecasts in the northern hemisphere spanning 3- 10 days ahead, concludes that the greatest uncertainty increase will be regarding summer downfalls, of critical importance when it comes to our ability to predict and prepare for flooding.
The study How Global Warming Changes the Difficulty of Synoptic Weather Forecasting by Sebastian Scher and Gabriele Messori at the Department of Meteorology, published in Geophysical Research Letters, establishes that our ability to make accurate weather forecasts is affected by the current changes in the global climate. A major factor is the decrease in the temperature difference between the North Pole and the equator.
In the studied span of medium-range weather forecasting (3-10 days) the most prominent uncertainty seems to befall the ability to predict the volume of summer rain. Certain other parameters, such as temperature and air pressure, are on the other hand likely to become more accurate.
“Reliable weather forecasts are tremendously important for almost all of society, and summer flooding in the northern hemisphere especially is one of the great challenges as the climate is getting warmer” says Sebastian Scher, main author. “It is very important that meteorological institutes around the world are given the opportunity to develop their tools and methods as conditions change.”
The research project at Stockholm University will continue, during the next step specifically focusing on the ability to predict heavy summer downpours in 24-48 hours.
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How Global Warming Changes the Difficulty of Synoptic Weather Forecasting is available here: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL081856
Public Release: 22-Mar-2019
Stand facing the true wind and the centre will be between three and five points on your right in the northern hemisphere and on your left in the Southern Hemisphere . Note if your barometer has fallen twice the diurnal variation. Note if the cloudscape is tattered fracto – cu. check the wind speed. You may be in the unnavigable quadrant of a tropical revolving storm. Oh – why not listen to Guam radio?
Are you perhaps thinking of “Halsey’s Hurricane”?
Do we take it that 3-10 day weather forecasting isn’t settled science but 30 year climate forecasting is?
Seems like the met gang has been having a lot of fun with this post, and rightfully so. Comments seem to have drifted a bit, so I’m going to return to the first paragraph of the report.
To my mind, I feel it is absolutely correct. I’ve been trying to predict the weather for over 50 years and I swear that trying to predict QPF 3-10 days ahead during the summer is the highest forecast uncertainly around. All the article does is state that will continue far into the future. That finding is so obvious that I can’t believe anyone would spend the time and money “researching” it.
Summer QPF 3-10 day forecasts are by far the worst of the seasonal 3-10 day QPF’s. Always have been; always will be. (Of course, “always” isn’t such a long time for me.)
Damn climate change. I’m really going to miss those 100% accurate weather reports we all got used to.
Just think what advances in the science and accuracy of weather forecasting might have been made if just a quarter of the cash spent on the political “science” of CAGW hadn’t been wasted?
They love to invoke our future children.
How about doing something for our present children now?
The true value of CAGW- the universal excuse. There is no human incompetence that cannot be masked by global warming models.
This doesn’t pass the smell test.
Lowering the temperature gradient between the poles and the tropics results is less movement of air masses and at lower velocities…and with less mixing (therefore less chaos). With air masses moving more slowly, weather conditions would change more slowly providing for longer weather prediction horizons.
We see this in microcosm with large “blocking” high pressure systems that can be very large and very uniform in temperature and pressure across its expansive area. Weather predictions can be spot on for weeks ahead WHEN NOTHING IS CHANGING.
This is the reason the cyclone energy has decreased with recent warming (directly contrary to the predictions of more and stronger cyclones/hurricanes).
This unending Fake Science “parade” is like watching a never ending nightmare episode of “The Outer Limits”.
Weather forecasting has always been difficul and erratict. It has gotten worse recently as the focus has been on substantiating the effects of ‘ ‘Global Warming/Climate Change’. However, this same ‘Climate Change/Global Warming’ provides a good excuse to explain why the present forecasts are so inaccurate.
Forecasting is uncertain?! STOP FORECASTING!
Problem solved …
Tell that to the” Manns”.
You don’t need to read further than the heading.
What a pile a garbage. I’m getting sick to death of the proliferation these contemptible, ridiculous, useless, inane, bullshit ”studies” These people couldn’t ”study” their way out of a wet paper bag.
So, is climate change make forecasting weather more difficult? Or is incorporating human caused climate change into forecasts making them less accurate? I bet it’s the latter.
Sounds like a “it’s not our fault we are failures” move…..
when you are brainwashed, it is nearly impossible to forecast anything.
Generally the forecast for a couple of days out is all you need. You plan your activities based on what the weather will most likely be understanding that it could change. Now a lot of times when a certain type of pattern develops the forecast can go up to 5 days out and be accurate. Of course, summer forecasts for Florida are “warm and humid with a chance of pop up thunderstorms”. Repeat as necessary.
Unless it’s a bad translation, these guys are in trouble with their title – “How Global Warming Changes the Difficulty of Synoptic Weather Forecasting”. Don’t they know that it is “Climate Change”, not “Global Warming”.
I don’t see any problems in the future with predicting summer rainfall amounts here in the Southern California coastal plain. A trace here, a trace there. Same old same old.
I’d prefer it if the predictions were wrong and we got significant rainstorms all summer long.
“There is no such thing as bad weather, only inappropriate clothing”
Which doesn’t quite explain Her glee in reminding you who’s the boss, when She catches you out.
Climate Change has definitely made one aspect of weather forecasting much poorer.
All the f’n wind turbines are in the way of the Doppler radar!
The radar that I use is 70 miles away, and by the time it clears the newish turbines and gets overhead, snow squalls have an easy time getting in underneath. Much worse than it used to be.
I don’t the details on tornado tracking, but I can’t see how they are not affected.
It looks like the variability of the start of the spring flood has gone down at least.
https://www.smhi.se/klimat/klimatet-da-och-nu/klimatindikatorer/klimatindikator-arets-forsta-snosmaltning-1.101282
“… The study How Global Warming Changes the Difficulty of Synoptic Weather Forecasting by Sebastian Scher and Gabriele Messori at the Department of Meteorology, published in Geophysical Research Letters, … ”
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Is Meteorology still part of the Humanities faculty?
I suspect this is a large part of the reason why these two Meteorologists don’t seem to have any real comprehension of the basic differences in scale between climate change and weather change, or seasonal changes. If they did they’d never have made such a scientifically unschooled and false claim.
” … The ongoing climate changes make it increasingly difficult to predict certain aspects of weather, according to a new study from Stockholm University. The study, focusing on weather forecasts in the northern hemisphere spanning 3-10 days ahead … ”
They’re simply too naive, presuming and ignorant to even feel professionally embarrassed by saying something as that. Meteorologists should stick to meteorology, because these two know nothing about what constitutes a real climate change.
Hint: it doesn’t appear within a model, and it also doesn’t resolve within a human life time, or meteorology career.
“Claim: Climate changes make some aspects of weather forecasting increasingly difficult.”
LOL…. What? Considering the history of weather forecasting! This is a laughable statement. Most people planning a picnic on a Sunday who were looking at Friday’s forecast of sunny skies and mild temperatures for the weekend, usually packed an umbrella and a jacket.
Given that weather forecasting has always been hit and miss over more than 72 hours beyond, it will be warming in summer that in winter, this is in reality very old news indeed. Oddly this difficulty has never stopped them claiming certainty over 50 or 100 years for temperature levels to two decimals places, despite all the problems that exist in the theory , the poor practice of the professional working in the area and the ‘better than nothing ‘ reality of the data collection system which includes ‘magic tree rings ‘ .
So who knew forecasting is very hard particularly the future?
And how much did it cost for this gem?
James Bull
Claim: Climate changes make some aspects of weather forecasting increasingly difficult
Apparently this is correct as long-range & even relatively short-range forecasts have become almost universally too warm anymore. Of course those forecasts use no on-the-spot human judgement because they’re just straight from the computer models.
Translation: They can’t tell the difference between “rain this afternoon” and “rain for 5 days.”
Beyond ridiculous. And the abstract quoting the diminishing polar/equator gradient does not help their credibility.