Bjorn Lomborg writes on Twitter:
Wishful thinking: This graph starkly shows what power the 1.5°C target The black line is CO₂ emission increase last 118 years (last year was highest ever) The blue lines indicate the emissions necessary to ensure the widely politically agreed 1.5°C limit.
Gel Peters, who made the graph, writes:
Where do we want to go? For 1.5°C we need CO₂ emissions to go down much faster than we went up. CO₂ emissions down 50% in a decade, zero by 2050, negative thereafter. We have to start remove CO₂ now, to reach the necessary scale at the end of the century.
This graph shows (though not very well) the abrupt ~30% emissions increase around 2002. That relatively sudden increase in emissions never showed up in the Mauna Loa CO2 data…something never explained.
So mother nature (or somebody) already did almost a third of the (un)neccessary job.
Now all we need to do to reach emissions goals is the total nuclear annihilation of China and India and Southeast Asia. Nothing else has even the tiniest chance of meeting UN Emissions goals.
I personally don’t think we should nuke half the world, that would be bad for trade and international relations.
Therefore, we should save our $$ so that we can learn to survive in a world that is 1.5 C warmer…like humans did during the Midieval Warming Period when civilization flourished. We need to have historians tell us how humanity ever lived through such a mild climate. That scenario congers up utter horror…the competition for beachfront property is going to be fierce.
Pretty sure that the blue lines represent what will happen to countries’ economies that adopt Green New Deal policies.
Seems that most everything is pretty good now…. Steady as she goes!
One source of CO2 that i never read about is the Deep-Sea Hydrothermal Vents. The magnitude of these were not discovered until around the year 2000. [ https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2001/ast13apr_1%5D I served in the US Navy Submarine service for over 20 years and retired in 2000. During that time I never heard of them. Even served on subs making charts of the ocean floor during that service which were detailed enough to plot them – no mention of their existence. Worse I see no mention of their effect of releasing CO2 or by the plant life around them in any CC discussions, whose magnitude was not fully realized of until 2010 or so.
Is this properly accounted for in the CC models? Could the gravity effect of other planets in our solar system affect the amount of CO2 released? As I recall, there was a rare alignment of the planets a few years ago and hype by the MSM about more earthquakes and the end of the world BS. If the alignment could increase earthquakes wouldn’t it also affect the release rate of these and other known volcanoes?
The funny thing with the 1.5°C limit is that according to the RCP modelling we already should have 1.9°C warming. Which brings up a couple of questions..
1. How will you prevent something from happening that already happened, unless you have a time machine?
2. Given that the prophecy did not materialize, would you a) say thank god we have more time, or b) question the prophecy?
3. Since the modelled temperature exceeds the 1.5°C target by 0.4°C, what exactly justifies the unsurmountable efforts to recude a hypothetic temperature in a model by 0.4°C???
Allow me to explain a logical position here without referencing data. Is the climate changing? Of course it is, and always has. Few realize it has been far worse millions of years ago. Too many people are living in their little bubble called “a lifetime.” Does human activity have some affect on the weather? Of course it does, as we live here, but with many things like other animals, volcanos, earthquakes etc. Ice caps change, always have. The Antarctic is growing faster than Arctic is shrinking, but we can’t explain. I remember the “coming ice age” theories in the 70s and 80s. Our life spans and even the existence of man on the Earth is a microscopic event in history of the planet. “Global Warming” is now “Climate Change” since the climate doesn’t seem to obey predictions, but who can deny things “change”? Chaos theory is logical proof that predictions against complex systems are useless. Arguments in favor of the “climate change” religion, like all religion, are not falsifiable – and therefore by definition not “scientific”. All resolutions point to political control. Environmental “science” has taken the place of economic socialism/communism as the statist’s wedge of choice. The old models have fallen out of favor. Without state funding there would be no such “climate change” theory. This is state propaganda used to drive more taxes. Same happened with the over-population scare, acid raid and the coming ice age. Heck, the fact that the only people pushing the agenda are politicians tells you it’s suspect. I’m not debating there may be temp increases and decreases in certain places. That’s normal. Change is always happening. But proof of cause (similar to proving gravity exists) and then predicting something bad is going to happen deserves great skepticism.
An experienced, unbiased computer scientist will tell you that the math behind the predictive models practically constitutes fraud. The past does not predict the future, so if there is a rising temperature, there is no evidence it will continue. It’s hard for people to grasp that models (explanations) of chaotic systems cannot project actual system behavior – ever. This is not a limitation in current methods, measurements or processing power. It is an absolute limit that can never be overcome. To truly understand in a manner that is provable one needs an actual proof. If the proof implies a chaotic system, one of the things that the proof can prove is that the system cannot project future outcome of any real system. In narrower aspects of the system (which are not chaotic) one can prove outcomes given a set of assumptions (axioms), but there is no such thing as an absolute (consistent and complete) proof in any complicated system. In other words, the models built by “scientists” are subsets of the chaotic system and don’t represent reality.
Furthermore, few understand that science is not absolute. Science doesn’t have theorems or proofs, it has facts, hypotheses and theories – and theories can never be proven. Math has proofs. Computer science isn’t actually a science, it’s a philosophy/math – with theorems and proofs. So far computer science cannot predict a chaotic system. So don’t believe the doomsday “predictions” based on “models.”
One thing is certain, as there is proof by existence – projections by those who think they have plausible system explanations have failed to a significant degree. While their theories cannot be proven, they can be (and have been) disproven. There is of course the long history of chicken little cults, including “The Coming Ice Age” from the 70’s-80’s, or Armageddon from a little earlier. Overpopulation was another scare that didn’t happen. The motivation is always the same – it’s a con to gain control over people by capturing their vote. Apart from the daily political debate, I don’t observe anything really “happening.” There are always doomsayers, and they have almost always been wrong, whether it is their observation or conclusion.
The reason this is just a hotly debated topic and so many seem to “care” is because of predictions OTHER people make. There is behind all of this some idea that these predictions imply something bad, or at least worse then if we implemented proposed “solutions”. And notice all of the proposed solutions always lead to one place… increasing the power of the state to unprecedented levels. It’s no wonder at all that the “absolute science” comes from from the state (and as explained above, science is not absolute). Many people or groups want to get control of other people, and hence the desire to find a plausible system explanation (including projection/prediction) that can be tied back to a regulatory policy that yields the control. Check out this quote, I’m not worried in the least about climate change (oh and CO2 is pumped into green houses to grow plants better/faster):
“April 22 was the 47th anniversary of the first Earth Day, which occurred in 1970. Since that day, the number of people on Earth has increased from 3.7 billion to 7.5 billion, and average life expectancy for all the world’s people has risen by 11 years, to 67 years old. Likewise, food production has soared and energy production and consumption, mostly thanks to fossil fuels, has increased by more than four times. Since the first Earth Day, the natural environment has improved substantially, through urbanization, and the biosphere and agriculture are more robust. Earth is greener, because of the additional carbon dioxide in the air, as numerous studies now show. Since the first Earth Day, the flawed computer models backed by radical environmentalists have failed continuously, and we now know they can never serve as a reliable tool to make policy judgements governing the future of human life on Earth.”
If you read Tony’s site carefully, you will notice that he has gone back and found the articles that made all sorts of predictions and most didn’t happen (not even close). It’s a political con game and you’re falling for the fear mongering. If the “science” is backed by the state, then be very skeptical. Most who think “climate change” is an issue, don’t understand the basics of how science works. They are just jumping on the political propaganda band wagon. One thing is certain – if there is an issue, there is absolutely no hypothesis that is considered a theory to such a convincing degree like the theory of relativity, gravity or evolution. All those are backed by vast scientific research and support by peer reviewed works. Climate change is a hoax /joke compared to the theory of gravity when put under the test of true science. Tony in this video is an unbiased, credible scientist and engineer. He has no agenda and does great work. I guarantee you, 10 yrs from now there will be no major problems. Al Gore’s predictions were all wrong, and OAC’s will be also. It’s just so obvious to the intellectual, unbiased, critical thinking community.
That was an interesting read, how does this factor in if at all or is it no longer considered a thing?
Milankovitch Cycles
Speaking of that cycle, I can hardly believe how alarmists with a science background can think that just because the Milankovitch cycle has gone barely past the mid point descending that of a sudden the planet is supposed to immediately enter into a cooling phase. Despite the fact that all that means is that it will 11K+ years before the bottom arrives. That shows me that they are clueless in comprehending how nature works. Also doesn’t say much for their logical ability.
They do similar when commenting that we should be cooling because the solar cycle has slightly declined. They must think that it is like an off/on switch, absolutely clueless.
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So far computer science cannot predict a chaotic system.
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A double pendulum is a chaotic system. Yet there are modes that are as predictable as a regular pendulum.
The solar system appears to be chaotic on the order of 1 to 5 million years (i.e., it has a “horizon of predictability” of at least that long). It has been quite predictable during the entire period of human astronomy.
Jim
We know what s behind the warming.
SO2
If You bother to study when the reduction of SO2 started compared to when the warming started You will see.
1980.
If CO2 is more potent then Why the cooling during 1950-1980?
Aerosols cools , and less of them does not cool as much.
What the graph says is plain. The Paris Agreement is dead in the water.
What would be useful would be to add the Paris Agreement emissions schedule to the graph to show just how ridiculous the Paris Agreement is when compared to IPCC consensus.
This graph shows that it is a fools errand to set 1.5C as a target. It is the equivalent of a manned space mission to the nearest star. We don’t have the technology or the resources to pay for it.
What the graph shows is that since emissions reductions are orders of magnitude outside of our grasp, that we would be much better off to use the money to adapt. If fact, adaptation is our only workable choice outside of killing off 90% of the population.
There is a great deal of land that currently too cold to support any size of population. Canada and Russia for example have vast areas where climate refugees could settle if things get warmer.
The cost of resettlement would be quite low as these areas have vast quantities of untapped natural resources. All that is required are people and a warmer climate.
There is just one way to bring this graph into reality: global nuclear war.
Unless and until the Chinese are convinced to begin GHG reduction now, all talk of such reductions is just blather.
Since emissions have either flatlined or begun to fall in the West it is very clear that the recent history of increases on the chart is primarily due to China, India and developing nations.
Cambodia is currently having severe water shortages and problems with the power generation capacity due to a heavy reliance on hydro power. When I was there last year I learned they are building 3 coal fired power plants that should hopefully start to address at least the power issue.
The fact is it is still much cheaper to provide power for a developing nation through the use of fossil fuels. Since most developing nations are dirt poor and reliant on the West for some degree of funding they are building coal fired power plants as the same hypocrites who would demand that we give up our fossil fuel energy won’t spring the massive bill for renewables in developing nations.
Re. Michael’s , March 23 , excellent article correctly says , that the
computers can never tell us what the future will be, but we do have
reasonable documentation, especially from China, as to what has happened in the past.
That of course shows that change is normal, and that external factors such as the theory of Cosmic Ray bombardment appear to be a part of the over all weather mix.
Another point, we should keep correcting the misuse of the word “Climate”
instead of weather. Climate is the 30 year average, weather as Mark
Twain said is what you get day by day.
MJE VK5ELL
Life has existed on Earth with CO2 from 0.02% to 0.07%. So what is all the dithering except to control our lives, the economy, and our individual existence?
Let’s see that graph getting us to 800ppm of carbon by 2100 (or whenever the population reaches 10B).
Meanwhile, some nations bought into the fear of CO2, and have crippled themselves attempting to cut their emissions. The Dutch are a prominent example and are now regretting their actions.
“From this point on there are still many different roads into the future. The Dutch example is instructive because we are talking about a wealthy, urban, industrialised country – a self-proclaimed climate leader within the European Union. A country moreover that has decided to phase out the use of “unabated” natural gas for the sake of the climate. Yet its climate policies for cutting greenhouse gas emissions are full of flaws.”
https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2019/03/23/going-dutch-how-not-to-cut-emissions/
How flagrant can it get in terms of moving goalposts. First it was the 3.5 degree maximum, then 2.5 degrees. Now the goalposts have moved again to 1.5 degrees as the maximum. Moving the goalposts is a classic tactic of liars.
Has your BS meter exploded? Does it has to be moved down to .5 degrees and punitive climate taxes based on that figure inducing abject poverty for people to wake up that it is utter BS? Will the dung beetles still swallow the BS even when it gets that absurd? Will policymakers continue to force us to swallow BS to save them from extreme embarrassment-the embarrassment of being found out as liars or total incompetents?