Guest essay by Eric Worrall
h/t TomRude – will nobody think of the children?!
By 2080, the climate in these Canadian cities will look nothing like it does today
A study looked at 540 cities across Canada and the U.S.
Nicole Mortillaro · CBC News · Posted: Feb 12, 2019 2:14 PM ET | Last Updated: 4 hours ago
The average summertime temperature in Edmonton is around 15 C. It’s comfortable and familiar for residents. But in 60 years, that temperature is forecast to rise by almost 5 C, more reminiscent of the climate just outside St. Paul, Minn.
That’s just one of many specific geographic conclusions in a new study published in Nature Communications.
In an effort to improve climate change communication, the authors came up with an idea: what if they forecast the temperature and precipitation changes for cities in 2080, and matched them with a city that has a similar climate today?
“We wanted to answer the question: How do we communicate these expected changes in a way that’s relatable to people?” said Matt Fitzpatrick, associate professor at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science and the study’s lead author.
“The basic idea was to use this technique of climate analogue mapping, which isn’t a new technique … and to do that in a comprehensive way, so we can better communicate what these changes mean.”
…
Read more: https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/canadian-climate-cities-2080-1.5014695
The study is available here.
No offence to Canadians, but myself, I suspect a lot of people who read WUWT, would find the Minnesotan climate to be a little on the chilly side, especially after some of the brutal winter weather Minnesotans have experienced this year.
Even if the predictions are true, is a gradual rise in temperature from bitterly, bone chillingly cold to be careful of exposed flesh cold really a problem worth spending trillions of dollars to reverse?
Minnesota would hardly be an improvement: The summers are already similar so -25 to -20 aint much of a difference
Poor Canada.
I was also browsing a website about Russian weather today, and was struck by an assertion that “The average yearly temperature of nearly all of European Russia is below freezing.”
Even if that is just close to being true, it really is worth remembering that that is mostly the smaller, more comfortable part of Russia. A bit of global warming for Canada and Russia really will work wonders for the world, and the human race in particular.
Well i live in Québec, Canada and this winter will probably bust the 2008 record of snow. In six months that year, we received 558 cm of snow. Yes five meters and a half of snow in six months. Today we had another snow storm (i lost count) and got another 30 cms in a night.
I can’t wait to get a warmer climate, sadly i know this is all frauds and lies.
I live in Calgary, 300km south of Edmonton. Summer is cooler here. 5C warmer would be excellent. Then our vegetables would ripen properly and going swimming . .. well, still a problem.
Oh dear, what a pile of fuming crap. We got in Ontario one of the coldest winter in a very long time. It started vey early (October) and we got very cold weather throughtout November, January and February. This is not even the end of it. Environment Canada had predicted an average to above normal temperature for this winter to the contrary of…the farmers Almanach. What the hell my taxes are used for?
In my area of BC, if you mention to any old-timer that the mountain ash trees sure have a lot of berries this summer, he’s likely to respond with “It’s going to be a cold winter.” Well, wherever I went last summer I was noticing that the mountain ash were loaded with berries, and communities throughout those areas have been setting new record minimums this winter. Including ski resort town Whistler, whose mayor recently wrote to oil companies asking for compensation because: climate change.
Just how many megaflops is a 20 foot-tall mountain ash capable of anyway? By last July they were producing a better forecast than Environment Canada’s supercomputer at the end of December:
https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=s123pfe1t_m1_cal&bc=prob
Minnesotans 4 Global Warming had it right with their song, ‘If we had some Global Warming’.
Enjoy… 🙂 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJUFTm6cJXM
I do not know who this out fit is but we have one much worse in Manitoba. SkepticalUnScience would love them.
The PCC (Prairie Climate Centre) is using the worst case scenario (RCP 8.5) for their “projections”. And they actually believe they are correct. They are projecting Manitoba will be like Texas, not Minnesota, by 2080.
Then they have produced a “Climate Atlas” for Canada so you can type in your location and see what you will have in 2080.
And they are funded by the gov.
Check it out.
And remember RPC 8.5 is considered a “very unlikely” scenario.
To bad the planet will be uninhabitable in 12 years.
Nobody left to find out if this prediction comes true or not in 20180.
The key word in the title is “Will”, which immediately undermines whatever credibility the article has in the first place. It might have had some if it had read “Could” , but in its original form it makes the claim that this is a certainty or guarantee that the authors know exactly what the climate will be like 60 years into the future. And even if they’re right, the cities that the Canadian ones are compared to have larger populations and at least as much economic activity, so what’s the big issue? If anything, Canada will benefit from the higher temperatures. So this is just another variation of the climate alarmism that’s being promoted to try to convince citizens to accept carbon taxes and higher prices for everything. Whether these will affect the climate is immaterial as long as governments have more revenue to play around with and dish out to their supporters looking for handouts for hit-or-miss Green initiatives.
By 2080 Canadian cities will be warmer. Also ice sheets and glaciers will melt. The sea level will rise. Oceans will warm. New and perhaps harmful weather events will emerge. There will be droughts and floods and heat waves. The biota will be affected by these changes and not all species will fare well.
All of these things and all the other changes cited as reasons for cutting fossil fuel emissions are simply the way interglacials progress.
The only information content in these fears is that we are in an interglacial – and not a particularly active one at that in comparison with prior interglacials climate change events.
Hats off to the propaganda geniuses who has taught the world to fear interglacials – the brief balmy warm periods in between 100,000year glaciations.
https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/21/eemian/
https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/25/youngerdryas/
https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/03/hidden-hand/
https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/27/nasa/
5 degrees C rise in 60 years? Do I detect another RCP8.5 outlandish scenario? RCP8.5 should be outlawed, or at least come with a warning: “caution, contains RCP8.5. Continued reading will cause your brain to rot”.
All temperatures are in degrees Celsius.
Canada
– coldest month = -15.0
– average temperature = +4.1
– hottest month = +23.5
America
– coldest month = -5.4
– average temperature = +12.1
– hottest month = +30.5
Canada’s temperatures would have to increase by about +7.0 to +9.6 degrees Celsius, to match America.
This is just a little bit higher than the +2.0 degrees Celsius temperature limit.
====================
Have a look at the graph in this article:
https://agree-to-disagree.com/temperature-and-population-by-country
Find the rectangle for America. It is above the label “USA”.
Then find the rectangle for Russia. It is above the label “Russia”.
Now find the rectangle that is just to the right of Russia, that comes down to -15.0 degrees Celsius. That is the rectangle for Canada.
Now compare the rectangle for Canada, with the rectangle for America.
You should be able to see, that they are completely different to each other.
It is very unlikely that Canada’s climate will become like America’s climate is now.
I think the Canadians will be happy when the temperatures rise a bit, because it gets freezing cold especially in winter!
Maybe the writer secretly converted to being a skeptic and wanted to highlight how ridiculous the scaremongering has become?
Leave it Canadians to build expensive (and mostly useless) wind turbines and raise taxes so that they’re cities don’t become “warm like in St Paul, Minnesota.”
I suggest all the progs go to Canada and buy up the available muskeg at bargain prices. Then wait for the prediction to come true.
I actually grew up in Minnesota – Northern Minnesota. It was common to get to -40, and even colder at the time in the 60s. I learned in my freshman chemistry class that chlorine gas liquifies at -39 F. To test this, I bubbled chlorine gas into a gallon apple jug and set it out on the back porch to see if the light green color would disappear on -40 mornings. Alas, it was early March by the time I did this, and we had no more -40 mornings. On one -35 F morning, the green color was still there.
Now, I have implemented my own Catastrophic Climate Change. I spend the winters in Southern Texas. We’ve had a brutal winter this year. We’ve actually had five mornings with frost. I will attest that a +28F (16 C) change in climate is quite livable.
Education
University of Tennessee, 2008, Ph.D., Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
University of Montana, 2003, M.S., Environmental Science
Pennsylvania State University, 1997, B.S., Mechanical Engineering
They don’t even pretend to have the first bit of education in weather or climate, anymore.
Yes, whenever I see “model” in this regard, I don’t bother to look for anyone with a degree in computer science, math or statistics.
Best case: some sciencey stuff, sometime.
Worst case (and usually): philosophy, polysci, gender studies, sociology, “environmental” anything, etc.
I’ll take a weatherman or a guy with a double-degree in math, thank you Mr. Watts and McIntyre.
Yes, the study really amounts to little more than an “if my aunt had balls she’d be my uncle” exercise.
I am a Canadian living in Quebec and on my street you will find a palm tree.
For an alarmist it screams climate change but for a rational person like me it speak to the amazing resiliency of living organisms as I never would have thought that a palm tree could manage to survive 3-4 months of below freezing temperatures, yet there it is.
What it tells me it that it can’t compete in this environment, not that it can’t live in this environment.
I build model cars.
I play with model trains.
Models are not real, they are a fake reality.
Oh, it’s not that the models aren’t real. Its that what they’re presenting as “models” aren’t even models or modele.
They’re altered false correlation non-linear progression projections with fabricated effects that violate the fundamental principals of re-emissive gasses.
I dunno if anybody’s noticed but your current exposure survival scenario in Minnesota is roughly the same right now as in Ontario.
“Climate Change Communication”. Isn’t that where activists try to work out the most compelling way to deceive people into believing their religion?
I’m told that we’re having a record hot summer here in Nelson Bay, NSW, Australia. This is our fourth summer here, so I don’t have enough data to say whether or not that’s true. It’s been slightly warmer than last year. We’ve had perhaps 10 or 15 days when we’ve had to turn the AC on for a few hours in the middle of the day, but that’s mostly because of the humidity.
I checked the climate before we moved here. According to the official data, Nelson Bay’s maximum temperature had never reached 40C since records began. I looked up the same data a month or so ago and now it says that we’ve had many days over 40C in the last few years. Interesting.
My home page is the local weather forecast. Many times it predicts that it it will be e.g. 32C in a few days time and the bureau talks about heatwaves. (For me, having lived in Melbourne for many years, over 40C for a week is a heatwave. 32C for one day is an opportunity to enjoy a warm day.) When you actually get to the day of the predicted heatwave, we get 25C or 28C. But the heatwave meme continues.
I’ve never been to Minneapolis or St Paul or even Minnesota, but I’m a big fan of the author John Sandford and his Lucas Davenport and Virgil Flowers characters. I thought that many of the novels were set in the depths of winter until I discovered that they still have snow on the ground in March. The thought that the climate in St Paul is warm is more than ludicrous.
I was sent a link to an article in an Edmonton newspaper a few years ago. It talked about how the Edmonton International Airport was closed that morning because the temperature was -44C. However, by lunch time, they were able to reopen the airport because it had warmed up to -40C. I have a great deal of respect for the fortitude of anyone who can use “warm up” and “-40C” together. It’s insanely cold.
But, if the climate communicators get their way, -40 instead of -44 will be held up as an example of extreme climate change.