From the good ol’ UEA <—- I suggest you check out link~ctm
Public Release: 6-Feb-2019
Forecast suggests Earth’s warmest period on record
University of East Anglia
Temperature figures table Credit: Met Office
The forecast for the global average surface temperature for the five-year period to 2023 is predicted to be near or above 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, says the Met Office. If the observations for the next five years track the forecast that would make the decade from 2014 to 2023 the warmest run of years since records began.
Today’s figures released by the Met Office include data from a number of sources including the latest publication of provisional figures for 2018 and the publication of the latest Met Office decadal forecast to 2023.
Records for annual global average temperature extend back to 1850.
Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long-Range Prediction at the Met Office said: “2015 was the first year that global annual average surface temperatures reached 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and the following three years have all remained close to this level. The global average temperature between now and 2023 is predicted to remain high, potentially making the decade from 2014 the warmest in more than 150 years of records.”
Averaged over the five-year period 2019-2023, forecast patterns suggest enhanced warming is likely over much of the globe, especially over land and at high northern latitudes, particularly the Arctic region.
Dr Doug Smith, Met Office Research Fellow said, “A run of temperatures of 1.0 °C or above would increase the risk of a temporary excursion above the threshold of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Predictions now suggest around a 10 per cent chance of at least one year between 2019 and 2023 temporarily exceeding 1.5 °C.”
Alongside this forecast, 2018 is today cited to be nominally the fourth warmest year on record globally in data released by the Met Office, at 0.91±0.1°C above the long-term pre-industrial average. It follows 2015, 2016 and 2017, which are the three warmest years in the 169-year record of the HadCRUT4 dataset.
Professor Tim Osborn, director of the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit, which co-produces the HadCRUT4 global temperature figures with the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: “The warmth of 2018 is in line with the long-term warming trend driven by the world’s emissions of greenhouse gases.”
The effects of climate change are not limited to surface temperature. Warming of the climate system is seen across a range of climate indicators that build a picture of global changes occurring across the land, atmosphere, oceans and ice.
The Met Office decadal forecast show that global average surface temperatures may be close to reaching 1.5 °C, but this would be a temporary exceedance rather than the climatological level of warming in the Paris 1.5 °C threshold.
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This is all very interesting when one considers that Adam Scaife, the head of long range prediction at the Met Office stated in October 2018: “the Met Office has stopped issuing seasonal forecasts. This is because it’s hard to predict with any level of local detail what the conditions of a season will be in the future. The Met Office now issues long-range weather forecasts, about a month into the future. These look at the UK as a whole, rather than focusing on specific regions.” Either they can predict or they can’t, which is it?
“Either they can predict or they can’t, which is it?”
The UKMO is a meteorological forecasting organisation.
Ergo they forecast the weather (can predict it) … as far as it can be with a reasonable prob of success.
Climate is NOT weather.
They are not trying to predict (wouldn’t be that anyway as we do not know the future direction we will take with CO2 emissions) climate in the sense of it’s future weather.
“Climate” projections are necessarily limited to global average temp projections.
There can then be speculation via modeling of the regional weather that may go along with that.
They have yet to provide any evidence that rising 1.5C above the depths of the LIA would be disastrous.
They just keep repeating the magic mantra over and over again.
You do understand that the True Science Believers (not that they actually know anything about science, they just like to use the word) believe that we’ve had thermometers accurate to the tenth of a degree, everywhere (even in the oceans) since…well, forever.
“Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long-Range Prediction…”
What a fantastic title, straight from Orwell!
Accepting that the “record” goes back 170 years or so, I still assert that the word renders the statement meaningless.
The earth is 4.5 billion years old. 170 years is about one minute out of a lifetime. The correct response to the assertion is: “So What?”.
Another new study has found that the IPCC’s 2013 (2 metres by 2100) SLR claims are just more exaggerated nonsense.
IOW NO SLR apocalypse at all. When will these fra-dsters be held to account and when will the people start to wake up?
https://www.thegwpf.com/study-pours-cold-water-on-sea-rise-apocalypse/
“Another new study has found that the IPCC’s 2013 (2 metres by 2100) SLR claims are just more exaggerated nonsense.”
The IPCC does not “claim” that at all.
And as such you have the implications of the study precisely backwards (as regards the AR5 consensus) …..
“The findings suggest a LARGER contribution from Antarctica than the IPCC’s fifth assessment report (AR5), explains Dr Nick Golledge, associate professor at Victoria University of Wellington’s Antarctic Research Centre and lead author of the paper. He tells Carbon Brief:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/studies-shed-new-light-on-antarcticas-future-contribution-to-sea-level-rise
“AR5 gave mean contributions for 2081-2100 of 4cm from Antarctica and 12cm from Greenland. In our new study, we suggest 14cm from Antarctica and 11cm from Greenland at 2100, so an increase to the Antarctic term and just above the upper bound of the AR5 uncertainty range (-6 cm to 12 cm).”
From: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf
Global mean SL rise in 2100 Antarctic ice sheet contribution
SRES A1B 0.60 [0.42 to 0.80] 0.04 [–0.05 to 0.13]
RCP2.6 0.44 [0.28 to 0.61] 0.05 [–0.03 to 0.14]
RCP4.5 0.53 [0.36 to 0.71] 0.05 [–0.04 to 0.13]
RCP6.0 0.55 [0.38 to 0.73] 0.05 [–0.04 to 0.13]
RCP8.5 0.74 [0.52 to 0.98] 0.04 [–0.06 to 0.12]
“IOW NO SLR apocalypse at all. When will these fra-dsters be held to account and when will the people start to wake up?”
No, what is required is for the likes of you to “wake up”.
And not bring DK syndrome and deflection from the likes of the GWPF into your confirmation bias.
The study they are claiming “predicted” 2m of SL rise by 2100 is NOT part of the IPCC’s consensus (it’s the 74 (52 – 98) cm.
“2018 was the fourth warmest year on record” With the logarithmic effect of CO2 and the need to incorporate increasing water vapour into the models to make them work, how do the warmests explain a decrease in annual global temperature. If CO2 is the only driver for increasing temperatures apart from El Nino effects then how does the world temperature decline after an El Nino event- a hotter year, more water vapour, more global temperature increase. To a layman the seems illogical. The global warming hypothesis would mean that any increase in global temperature would be the start of the dreaded tipping point.
“2018 was the fourth warmest year on record” With the logarithmic effect of CO2 and the need to incorporate increasing water vapour into the models to make them work, how do the warmests explain a decrease in annual global temperature.”
“increasing WV” is not incorporated into the models – they work on empirical physics and they develop the atmos WV content as part of their iteration through time.
There are natural variations within the climate system (lots of heat transfer before being emitted as LWIR to space).
The chief NV being the ENSO cycle.
This rides on top of the GHE warming – but comes to zero over long enough time scales.
“If CO2 is the only driver for increasing temperatures apart from El Nino effects then how does the world temperature decline after an El Nino event- a hotter year, more water vapour, more global temperature increase. To a layman the seems illogical. The global warming hypothesis would mean that any increase in global temperature would be the start of the dreaded tipping point.
An EN is not a driver – as that is something that has a long-term influence on climate.
An EN is followed by a LN and so the two cancel out.
It is a movement of heat within the climate system and NOT an addition.
The extra WV in the atmosphere is not self sustaining as it precipitates out (a H2O molecule has an average lifetime of 9/10 days in the atmosphere).
So that part of the extra GHE fades similarly with the temporary atmospheric heat that an EN gives.
CO2 does not precipitate out of Earth’s atmosphere, and so it’s GHE does not diminish except over century scales as it slowly sinks back into the biosphere.
“global average surface temperature”
Why is the average going up? Even a 6th grader knows that just giving you an average tells you nothing. Are the maximum temperatures going up? Are the minimum temperatures going up? Are the mid-range temperatures going up? Is it a combination of all of them? A data set of 4, 5, and 6 gives an average of 5. A data set of 5, 5, 6 gives an average of 5.33. The average went up because the minimum went up.
So, is the earth turning into a cinder? If so, why are so many places on earth seeing the number of cooling-days going down instead of up? Why has Earth set consecutive record global grain harvests four out the past five years? Increasing maximum temperatures should be suppressing grain harvests.
Look at this
DTR – Diurnal Temperature Range
I recommend a look at ‘Not a lot of people know that’
Feb 7th ‘Met office try to hide forecast fail’
Tells it all.
“..The Met Office decadal forecast show that global average surface temperatures may be close to reaching 1.5 °C, but this would be a temporary exceedance rather than the climatological level of warming in the Paris 1.5 °C threshold….”
I’m not a scientist, so I’ve been wondering where the IPCC and the alarmist camp obtained the 1.5 degree and 2.0 degree Celsius catastrophe threshold temperatures from. Is there any science behind these numbers at all or did they simply pick them out of thin air? Where is the historical evidence of climate catastrophe from the Medieval, Roman and Minoan times if/when this “threshold” was met or exceeded?
Inquiring minds want to know.
I’m making a point, whenever I post on other sites, and this one too in future, of not calling them “alarmists”. That’s too nice. I’m inviting you all, the ones who have been called “d**iers” because you/we understand the actual data, to start calling them “climate liars”. If enough of us do it, the moniker will stick.
I know it is anecdotal, but Chicago just went from rain (including thunder) to a flash freeze.
Current temp 12F, forecasted to warm up enough for snow on Sunday.
Still cleaning up the detritus Her winds of 40-45 mph caused on garbage day, some of it frozen into snow banks and/or gutters.
Spring is right around the corner.
Imagine my shock. So tired of hearing this “since records began” crap. Those records start when we were coming out of a period of the lowest temps in 10.000 years. Strange how they always fail to mention that minore detail. We are supposed to be getting warmer, I would be deeply concerned if we weren’t.
The thing they have yet to show me, the thing that would bend me over to their argument is the answer to this question: “How are today’s temperatures different than they would have been in a natural recovery from a little ice age.”
Because they will not look at that question for political reasons, they can not assert falsification of the null hypothesis that it is all consistent with natural variation. Oh, they hand wave and assert all sorts of things, but they can’t produce the natural warming of the early part of the 20th century in any of their models. They keep jiggering the 1930s cooler and cooler in the databases to try to flatten that part of the curve (since data must match the models after all.)
We warmed much more quickly in a few decades circa 12,000 years ago then we cooled very quickly circa 11,000 years ago and again warmed more quickly circa 10,000 years ago with rates that make the 1850-2019 curve look like a table top. Knowing this how can anyone assert “hottest ever”?
When talking to a warmist Who complains about global warming I always ask two questions:
What temperature is the earth.
A question that no more than one in ten can answer.
And.
What temperature should it be.
For some reason that question results in abuse and a refusal to answer.
Can’t figure it out.
Ohhhh Thank you !
What a great comment !
I think I will pinch it for future use when talking to Greenists.
Real Climate banned me for asking those same 2 questions 🙂
Ve2
1. Earth’s actual average surface temperature is around 288K (+15C), having previously been around 287K (+14C) on average for the period 1850-1900.
2. Earth’s average surface temperature should be around 273.15K (-19.5C).
https://scied.ucar.edu/planetary-energy-balance-temperature-calculate
Sorry, 2. should be 253.65K (-19.5C). 273.15K is 0.0C.
Who determined that the earths temperature should be -19.5 C.
That is snowball earth temperature.
See the link. -19.5C is what Earth’s average surface temperature would be if it didn’t have an atmosphere containing greenhouse gases. This has been understood for a very long time and isn’t even controversial (apart from maybe here).
OweninGA
Keep hearing about this gradual ‘recovery from the LIA’. The HadCRUT4 data set, the one they’re talking about that starts in 1850, shows no warming trend at all over the first half of its 168 year record. There are the usual ups and downs, but no overall trend during the first 84 years of the record, from 1850 right up to 1934.
Over the second half of the record, the 84 years from 1935 to 2018, the trend in HadCRUT4 is statistically significant warming at a rate of +0.088 ±0.015 °C/decade (2σ). There has been no gentle recovery from the LIA according to the surface temperature record. Instead there has been a steady increase in temperatures starting around the middle of the 20th century.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/hadcrut4gl/to:1935/plot/hadcrut4gl/to:1935/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1935/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1935/trend
Sounds like the makings of a potent sermon for the assembled Millennials.
So from a base of 2018 (+0.91C above pre-indy ave) that means we will get a run of +0.1C (~10%) which may lead to a peak of +0.6C (~66%) over the next 5 years? Did I get that correct?
I like to track predictions because that is what the scientific method is all about. Not the “snow is a thing of the past” or “Pacific islands are going to drown” or “the Arctic will be ice free in a decade”. Nope I want numbers and dates attached to them. The rest are just ways they embarrass themselves with schlock nonsense.
Let’s check back in 5 years and see shall we 🙂
In order to get to the lower end of the predicted range, +1.03C above the 1850-1900 average between 2019 and 2023, HadCRUT4 would need to average +0.72C annually (it has a 1961-1990 anomaly base). Their forecast for 2019 is 1.1 +/- 0.12. To hit the lower end of that HadCRUT4 would need to be minimum +0.67C in 2019, meaning that +0.73C would be required annually 2020-2023 in order to hit the lower end of their 5-year average forecast.
I think they’re too high. HadCRUT4 has only ever passed 0.73C twice (annual mean) and that was during the 2015/16 El Nino. All it takes is one big La Nina and their forecast would be really up against it.
Old Farmer’s Almanac Winter 2019 Forecast Says It Will Be Warm and Wet
https://www.countryliving.com/life/a22788868/old-farmers-almanac-winter-2019/
Is this where climate scientists obtain their predictions?
Meanwhile in the real United Kingdom, they are being battered by a weather bomb called Erik with 70 mile an hour winds and flooding.
Maybe folk in the UK will compare the MET’s forecasts for the next 5 years with what is outside their doors and windows.
And in North America it’s snow all the way !
I’m glad I am in Australia
The forecast has already been falsified with the ending of the super el-nino:
https://cliscep.com/2019/02/06/met-office-try-to-hide-forecast-fail/
A raising global temp for the next five years forecasted by East Anglia usual suspects …
I immediately ordered a polar parka, mountain gloves and snow boots before all this stuff being out of stock.
Just don’t let Al Gore visit.
Peopled should be called out on this carp. Where were the pre-industrial thermometers? Where are they now in fact?
I await with impatience the tropical jungles of Canada
W R O N G !!!
I have to leave home soon to go fix a water leak and the temp is at freezing with some wind. If I post an address, can I have some Global Warming delivered to that location?
Yes, it’s easy to fudge, ESPECIALLY when you lack ANY DATA at all from vast areas of the Earth’s surface, over land or water for years at a time.
And it is the height of folly to believe the results of all this interpolation can result in numbers claiming accuracy to the hundredth of a degree.