Public Release: 19-Dec-2018
The quest to discover what drove the last, long-term global climate shift on Earth, which took place around a million years ago, has taken a new, revealing twist.
A team of researchers led by Dr Sev Kender from the University of Exeter, have found a fascinating new insight into the causes of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) – the phenomenon whereby the planet experienced longer, intensified cycles of extreme cold conditions.
While the causes of the MPT are not fully known, one of the most prominent theories suggests it may have been driven by reductions in glacial CO2 emissions.
Now, Dr Kender and his team have discovered that the closure of the Bering Strait during this period due to glaciation could have led the North Pacific to become stratified – or divided into distinct layers – causing CO2 to be removed from the atmosphere. This would, they suggest, have caused global cooling.
The team believe the latest discovery could provide a pivotal new understanding of how the MPT occurred, but also give a fresh insight into the driving factors behind global climate changes.
The research is published in Nature Communications on December 19th 2018.
Dr Kender, a co-author on the study from the Camborne School of Mines, based at the University of Exeter’s Penryn Campus in Cornwall said: “The subarctic North Pacific is composed of some of the oldest water on Earth, which has been separated from the atmosphere for such a long time that a high concentration of dissolved CO2 has built up at depth. When this water upwells to the surface, some of the CO2 is released. This is thought to be an important process in geological time, causing some of the global warming that followed past glaciations.
“We took deep sediment cores from the bottom of the Bering Sea that gave us an archive of the history of the region. By studying the chemistry of sediment and fossil shells from marine protists called foraminifera, we reconstructed plankton productivity, and surface and bottom water masses. We were also able to better date the sediments so that we could compare changes in the Bering Sea to other global changes at that time.
“We discovered that the Bering Sea region became more stratified during the MPT with an expanded intermediate-depth watermass, such that one of the important contributors to global warming – the upwelling of the subarctic North Pacific – was effectively curtailed.”
The Earth’s climate has always been subjected to significant changes, and over the past 600,000 years and more it has commonly oscillated between warm periods, similar today, and colder, ‘glacial’ periods when large swathes of continents are blanketed under several kilometres of ice.
These regular, natural changes in the Earth’s climate are governed by changes in how the Earth orbits around the sun, and variations in the tilt of its axis caused by gravitational interactions with other planets.
These changes, known as orbital cycles, can affect how solar energy is dispersed across the planet. Some orbital cycles can, therefore, lead to colder summers in the Northern Hemisphere which can trigger the start of glaciations, while later cycles can bring warmer summers, causing the ice to melt.,
These cycles can be influenced by a host of factors that can amplify their effect. One of which is CO2 levels in the atmosphere.
As the MPT occurred during a period when there were no apparent changes in the nature of the orbit cycles, scientists have long been attempting to discover what drove the changes to take place.
For this research, Dr Kender and his team drilled for deep-sea sediment in the Bering Sea, in conjunction with the International Ocean Discovery Program, and measured the chemistry of the fossil shells and sediments.
The team were able to create a detailed reconstruction of oceanic water masses through time – and found that the closure of the Baring Strait caused the subarctic North Pacific became stratified during this period of glaciation.
This stratification, that argue, would have removed CO2 from the atmosphere and caused global cooling.
Dr Kender added: “Today much of the cold water produced by sea ice action flows northward into the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait. As glaciers grew and sea levels fell around 1 million years ago, the Bering Strait would have closed, retaining colder water within the Bering Sea. This expanded watermass appears to have stifled the upwelling of deep CO2-rich water and allowed the ocean to sequester more CO2 out of the atmosphere. The associated cooling effect would have changed the sensitivity of Earth to orbital cycles, causing colder and longer glaciations that characterise climate ever since.
“Our findings highlight the importance of understanding present and future changes to the high latitude oceans, as these regions are so important for long term sequestration or release of atmospheric CO2.”
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CO2 clearly differentiated the Upper Pleistocene from the Lower Pleistocene…
Forgot this… /Sarc
Typographical note, it should be “Tripati” not “Tirpati”.
And You might want to complement the figure by Steinthorsdottir’s & Vajda’s data from the Paleogene:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301600364_Global_trends_of_pCO2_across_the_Cretaceous-Paleogene_boundary_supported_by_the_first_Southern_Hemisphere_stomatal_proxy-based_pCO2_reconstruction
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322871685_Significant_transient_p_CO_2_perturbation_at_the_New_Zealand_Oligocene-Miocene_transition_recorded_by_fossil_plant_stomata
Now if you can tell me where I filed my original spreadsheet, I’ll fix Tripati and add Steinthorsdottir & Vajda… 😎
“While the causes of the MPT are not fully known, one of the most prominent theories suggests it may have been driven by reductions in glacial CO2 emissions.”
I consider myself knowledgeable about Quaternary Geology, but I have never come across this “prminent theory”.
And blaming closure of the Bering Strait for the MPT won’t work. The strait is only about 50 meters deep, so it has closed during every glacial cycle, of which there was about 40 before the MPT. As a matter of fact there has been fairly intensive two-way traffic by land animals across all throught the Pleistocene as is well known by paleontologists.
If there really was a oceanographical change in the North Pacific at the MPT, it must have had other reasons. I wonder if they considered the possibility that it might be due to the longer and more intense glacial cycles? After all they had considerable effects in other ocean basins.
What are “glacial CO2 emissions.”? Glaciers emitting CO2?
Should we give these blokes a tip.
During an ice age, with all that water locked up, guess what. No where as much water vapour in the air.
You know water vapour, the main greenhouse gas of the planet.
To all you climate experts, from a layman who wants to understand:
I have been following this for quite some time now, and reviewed many studies on CO2’s alleged “effect” on surface temps. This may be a bit off topic for the post but does speak directly to the ‘control knob’ claim of the alarmists. Three studies, spanning 20+ years using some of the same data (ARM/AERI overlapping) that seems to me to show unequivocally that…
2006, Dong et al,
““For example, using the Stefan-Boltzmann equation indicates that an annual increase of 0.04°C air temperature each year corresponds to an increase of 0.4 Wm−2 per year in upward LW upward surface emission. However, the measured change is a decrease of 0.26 Wm−2 per year as shown in Figure 2e…Cloud fraction is the dominant modulator for determining insolation on the surface, nevertheless cloud‐base height (temperature) is more important for downwelling LW flux. This study has shown that the all‐sky insolation increases from January 1997 to December 2000 and decreases from January 2001 to December 2004, which mirrors the variation of CF.”
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2006GL027132
2010, Gero et al,
“The AERI data record demonstrates that the downwelling infrared radiance is decreasing over this 14-yr period in the winter, summer, and autumn seasons but it is increasing in the spring; these trends are statistically significant and are primarily due to long-term change in the cloudiness above the site.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14240
2015, Feldman et al,
“These results confirm theoretical predictions of the atmospheric greenhouse effect due to anthropogenic emissions, and provide empirical evidence of how rising CO2 levels, mediated by temporal variations due to photosynthesis and respiration, are affecting the surface energy balance.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14240
I include the Feldman “study” quote because it is ‘classical’: he asserts, “…are affecting the surface energy balance.” of 22 ppm CO2 increase “…approximately ten per cent of the trend in downwelling longwave radiation.” Yet fails to report that at both sites the temperature trends were either 0C/dec (SGP site) or negative -1.3C/dec. (NSA site) for length of the study and beyond, as shown on NOAA ‘Climate At A Glance’ tool.
…CO2 increase effects are swamped by PWV (clouds): emergent phenomena as some (Willis?) have shown.
What am I missing here? BTW, if the ARM’AERI are the most reliable source for measuring the direct influence of IR and CO2 effects, and they have globally distributed sites available to do a comprehensive study of this GHG “effect”; why hasn’t one been executed? The biggest criticism of Gero was “spatial confinement”: two sites. Interesting that when Feldman made his disingenuous claims none of the alarmists made the same claim: instead it was pranced out to the MSM (NBC) as though something “new and shiny” had been accomplished. (UGH – upsets my stomach just to think about it).
http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/climate-change-scientists-witness-greenhouse-effect-action-n312811
I would be interested to know if my suspicions are correct: do these studies show what I think they do? Proof that CO2’s role is insignificant when compared to PWV?
All the Best!
GSK
I am 92 . when i was born there were only 2 billion plus or minus of us on the earth. today there are now 7 billion three hundred million. that is close to a 4 times the people of only 92 years ago. think of the growth in food production that has taken. that is both in land, water, technology and a warm climate! Climate change has always been with us. either warmer or colder. Obviously it has been warmer. what if we are shifting to colder?!. there will be a growing shortage of food. we will have wars, people fighting for food. how soon? who knows!?!.
Is there a mathematical analysis of how CO2 content in the atmosphere influences temperature? I have never read any article that considers mathematical constraints on the magnitude of possible effects of CO2 content on temperature. Should the concept of entropy and physical phenomenon such as magnetic fields or other considerations be part of the analysis? What are the constraints?
I am not a scientist, can someone tell me precisely what is the insulating factor for CO2 in the atmosphere at the pressure which air is found in the upper atmosphere?
These regular, natural changes in the Earth’s climate are governed by changes in how the Earth orbits around the sun, and variations in the tilt of its axis caused by gravitational interactions with other planets.
Nonsense. No planet there to outweigh the sun:
https://www.google.com/search?q=sunmass+in+percentage+%25+solar+system&oq=sunmass+in+percentage+%25+solar+system&aqs=chrome.
This stratification, that argue, –> they
From the above article: “These cycles can be influenced by a host of factors that can amplify their effect. One of which is CO2 levels in the atmosphere.”
Demonstrably unproven.
Correlation does not equal causation.
The preponderance of paleoclimatology data shows the global warming precedes increasing atmospheric CO2 levels.
Change in temperature has clearly preceeded change in CO2 in Antarctic ice cores extending back 800kyr, the majority of time since the MPT. Why would CO2 drive the transition and nothing since? Benthic cores extending back nearly 5 million years agree with the ice cores about temperature precedence for the full 800kyr of overlap. The parsimonious presumption must be that temperature controlled CO2 right through the MPT.
“Why would CO2 drive the transition and nothing since? ”
Because it happened before the oldest Antarctic ice-cores, and so cannot be disproved.