In the whirlwind that is 2018, there has been a notable lack of high-end twisters.
We’re now days away from this becoming the first year in the modern record with no violent tornadoes touching down in the United States. Violent tornadoes are the strongest on a 0 to 5 scale, or those ranked EF4 or EF5.
It was a quiet year for tornadoes overall, with below normal numbers most months. Unless you’re a storm chaser, this is not bad news. The low tornado count is undoubtedly a big part of the reason the 10 tornado deaths in 2018 is also vying to be a record low.
While we still have several days to go in 2018, and some severe weather is likely across the South to close it out, odds favor the country making it the rest of the way without a violent tornado.
If and when that happens, it will be the first time since the modern record began in 1950.
2005 came close to reaching this mark. That year, the first violent tornado didn’t occur until Nov. 15, much later than typical for the first of the year, which tends to come in early spring.
This year’s goose-egg may seem to fit a recent pattern.
In simple terms, there have been down-trends in violent tornado numbers both across the entire modern period, and when looking at just the period since Doppler radar was fully implemented across the country in the mid-1990s. A 15-year average as high as 13.7 in the mid-1970s will drop to 5.9 next year.
Expanding to include all “intense” tornadoes, or those F/EF3+, this year’s 12 is also poised to set a record for the least.
Right now, the mark there is held by 1987 when there were 15 F3+ tornadoes. As with violent tornadoes, this grouping is also exhibiting both a short and long-term decrease in annual numbers, likely for similar reasons.
The causes for 2018′s lack of violent tornadoes are many, but one key factor is high pressure tending to be more dominant than normal throughout peak season this past spring. This was particularly so during April and May, when tornado numbers were below to well below normal.
Although the country ended up seeing a number of memorable tornado events after the spring, including several this fall, in most years over half of the tornadoes occur from March through May. Making up those numbers is difficult at other times of the year when ingredients for them are less likely.
Despite the downtrend in annual numbers, studies continue to find that more tornadoes are happening on fewer days. In that light, it is certainly possible this drought won’t last much longer.
HT/marcusn, SMC, Neo, Marcus, and Latitude
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Does this tie in with the study mentioned in this article about reductions in measured wind speeds?
https://dailycaller.com/2018/12/27/study-wind-power-declining/
The study claims up to 30% reduction in measured wind speeds, seems likely that less wind= less energy= less chance for tornados.
All these reductions in tornados, wind speeds and so on are the result of several concerned nations implementing carbon taxes. Everyone knows that.
Watermelons are way ahead in this game.
This is exactly what anthropogenic global warming theory predicted. We told you so years ago. It will cause extremes in the patterns of weather. In a few days we will tell you why it is catastrophic that there is a lack of tornadoes. We just have to get the angle right before saying anything. Meanwhile continue to live in terror.
James Clark got it right. Its just normal, a small variation that’s all.
But never mind, soon something like what is happening in South West Australia. will happen elsewhere. Here we have our normal movement of the winds, from the South, cool, to West, moderate, and presently North, where we get both the Monsoon laden air, then heat is added to it as it crosses the big inland desert, and we get up to 40 C plus weather.
This one is a bit unusual in that its slow moving, but go back and its just what we always get this time of the year.
But our National broadcaster is loving it. First colour the map of Australia a bright Red. Then the use of all the usual emotion laden words and we have a situation that according to them is Catostrophioc.
Problem is peoples memories are too short, and their panic is noted by our present crop of Politicians.
The only good thing is that conditions are perfect for a failure of the two States with too many renewables, Victoria and South Australia, so here is hoping for a black or brown out of the Power system to make the people realise what is really happening.
MJE
MJE
Michael – do you know a lot about tornado formation?
The scare about increased tornado, hurricane, floods volcano activities is all due to the advent of television. To-ay, when floods or any climate disaster hits Bangladesh, people in New York see it immediately on their TV. Of course people get the impression of increased climate disasters.
How many people know that a hurricane killed 8,000 people in Galveston, Texas in the early 1900? Or a tsunami killed 300 plus in 1943 in Hawaii?
There was no television then.
2018 will be the first year with no violent tornadoes in the United States
Is it climate change?
As overland water-spouts, tornadoes result from hot air rising in swirling vortices as cooler upper cells suck moisture higher. If Great Plains or other topographic features’ surface temperatures are relatively low, the cool-hot strato-surface differential is insufficient to induce tornadoes.
In other words, this season’s anomalous lack of overland wind-vortices reflects lower continental surface temperatures due to marginal yet widespread global cooling. From GISS/NASA to the UN IPCC, we await disinterested klimatistas’ studious comment on this phenomenon.
With AGW; the winds are going to get Windier, and the rains are going to get Rainier.