From The Herald Scotland
28th November
Exclusive by Sandra Dick
The green energy sector in Scotland has grown rapidly in recent years.
Scotland faces being plunged into darkness for days, possibly resulting in deaths and widespread civil disobedience, due to the country’s over-reliance on green energy, a new report has warned.
A massive gap in the electricity system caused by the closure of coal-fired power stations and growth of unpredictable renewable generation has created the real prospect of complete power failure.
According the Institution of Engineers in Scotland (IESIS), there is a rising threat of an unstable electricity supply which, left unaddressed, could result in “deaths, severe societal and industrial disruption, civil disturbance and loss of production”.
READ MORE: Herald View: Dark warnings over rush to green energy
The organisation is also warning that the loss of traditional power generating stations such as Longannet, which closed in 2016, means restoring electricity in a “black start” situation – following a complete loss of power – would take several days.
Its new report into the energy system points to serious power cuts in other countries, which have resulted in civil disturbance, and warns: “A lengthy delay would have severe negative consequences – the supply of food, water, heat, money, petrol would be compromised; there would be limited communications. The situation would be nightmarish.”
IESIS is now calling on the Scottish and UK governments to transform their approach to how the electricity system is governed, with the creation of a new national energy authority with specific responsibility for safeguarding its long-term sustainability and avoiding blackouts.
The startling warning comes against a background of increasing reliance on “intermittent” energy sources such as wind and solar power.
Earlier this month ScottishPower became the first major UK energy firm to switch entirely from fossil fuels to green energy after selling its remaining gas and hydro stations to Drax for £702 million.
The closure of Hunterston B nuclear power station in Ayrshire, scheduled for 2023, is causing concern there will be an even wider gap in the nation’s electricity supply. All UK coal-fired power stations are expected to close by 2025, while reliance on electricity to meet the needs of electric vehicles and domestic heat rises.
READ MORE: Letters: Our power grid and the Titanic scenario
The engineering body has also raised concerns that an electricity system designed specifically for gas and coal-fired generation is being asked to take on a new form of supply without having undergone full engineering assessment.
It also highlights a piecemeal approach to siting new energy generating plants driven by private companies and efforts to meet CO2 emissions targets rather than the overall security of the electricity system.
Iain MacLeod, of the IESIS, said: “The electricity system was designed with generation coming mainly from coal and nuclear energy. However, as we change generation sources to include intermittent renewables, we must review how the system works with these new inputs. The risks involved when introducing new sources of generation need to be controlled. Intermittent renewable energy sources do not supply the same level of functionality as power stations to meet demand at all times and avoid operational faults. Intermittency issues … relevant to wind and solar energy have not been adequately explored.”
IESIS has published its call to action in a report, Engineering for Energy: A Proposal for Governance of the Energy System, which it plans to take to the Scottish and UK governments.
It argues that Longannet was closed “well before assessments of the impact of its closure had been completed” and adds that transmission is now being upgraded “before detailed decisions about the siting of generation facilities have been made”.
The EISIS report warns the closure of thermal infrastructure such as coal and gas-fired generators will affect the restoration of supply after a system failure, when wind generators have a limited role and nuclear generators cannot be quickly restarted.
It also stresses that the cost of integration of intermittent renewables to the current electricity system will lead to increasing energy costs for consumers.
It adds: “The extra generation and storage needed to safeguard security of supply, the facilities required to ensure it is stable, extra transmission facilities, and energy losses over power lines from remote locations will all contribute to rising costs.”
HT/A very impatient Oldseadog
Sold Hydro to Drax to rely on gween nonsense? Is that correct ? Surely not! Hydro is as green as it gets!
Oh no its not! (Sorry, Pantomime season approaching). Hydro depends on those eveil dams – they aren’t green.
Vote green, go BLACK!
+ many times
Once the politicians and their rent seekers take over, science and economics mean nothing.
The shallow thinking Scots were enticed to install wind power because the wind is free and Scots are cheap, and not too bright. None of thos pushing wind power had a clue – they apparently believed
the almost impossible notion that replacing a power source with another than didn’t even remotely resemble it would have no effect on the grid.. We are talking world class dumb.
kent beuchart
Sadly, globally, with about 600 GW installed (nameplate) capacity and ~ 400,000 windmills around the planet, it seems the Scots are not alone in their folly. They are, in fact, relatively recent entrants into the world of dumb “renewables”despite that nation’s history of invention and engineering excellence.
You need to look elsewhere for the countries with the largest installed capacity of wind-derived power……go figure!
Ken B – suggested reading Sir – for your personal enlightenment:
HOW THE SCOTS INVENTED THE MODERN WORLD:
The True Story of How Western Europe’s Poorest Nation Created Our World & Everything in It
is a non-fiction book written by American historian Arthur Herman. The book examines the origins of the Scottish Enlightenment and what impact it had on the modern world.More at Wikipedia
Author: Arthur Herman
Subject: Scottish Enlightenment
I have just been through a power outage that was caused by ice forming on power feed lines, ahead of a snow storm, and nearly 400,000 people lost power. Hardware stores in my area were completely sold out of generators and kerosene heaters.
When even reliable sources of electricity are impaired by bad weather (which was forecast incorrectly by the weather service) which turns rain into globs of slush that freezes on power lines as temps drop faster than forecast, I think it’s fair to say that people who want so-called green power, instead of what is tested, proven and improved by time and experience, are out of their tiny minds. Period.
Civil unrest in Scotland over power outages? Keep us posted! The academics who think this nonsense is a better idea need to be booted outdoors in a blizzard with 18F temperatures and wind chills of -10F or worse. But they never will be, so it’s a moot point.
Blackouts and brownouts that leave people freezing/ roasting in the dark are GREAT teaching moments. When people fail to understand basic aspects of the energy grid and energy economics, more direct methods can prove invaluable… specifically, pain, discomfort and deprivation.
I find it amazing that so many here suggest they know more than the National Grid who seem to have things under control in the UK
A major problem to the grid is loss of major source of power – a turbine trip removes 450MW from the grid in an instant and a reactor trip could lose up to 1GW of power. In general a destroyed WEC will lose 7MW of power at most if tripped out. If it is wind speed reducing then power will reduce slowly allowing gas powered thermal stations to supply the loss.
the only recent significant grid problem in may of 2008 was caused by trips of 2 power stations and failure of diesel backup.
https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/ofgem-publications/41426/nationalgrid-systemeventsof27mayfordswg16july.pdf
Currently in UK there are 5 nuclear powered turbines off line That’s about 2.5GW loss. one of these is a mechanical failure so only short warning
2 have been offline for months due to cracks in graphite. Return to service keeps getting put back
2 others have been taken offline for “statutory outage” and again return to service has been postponed a few times and now will not be until February next year.
https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/power-station/daily-statuses
WECs are not the complete solution but currently produce some of the cheapest energy in the UK
“WECs are not the complete solution but currently produce some of the cheapest energy in the UK”
Wait until you reach Denmark or Germany’s level:
The wind is blowing well in Scotland and windmills are useful for pumping water at remote places, but for modern electricity production, they seem a lesser practical and esthetic option, with environmental and economical issues.
If a feasibility study had been done in the same way as when you develop a new product for a factory, I am pretty certain it would conclude IESIS.
“Renewable” is a state of mind. In practical term “renewables” are less renewable than hydro and nuclear as I see it. Some of the raw materials used for wind and solar is far more limited than water flow, uranium and thorium. It does not help that the Sun is shining sometimes and that the wind is blowing sometimes, and that wind and solar has extremely low energy density.
Yes, I have have participated in developing wind turbines in the mid 1980’s in Denmark, I can see the benefit at some places and in some situations, but see mostly negatives when used on a large scale industrial bases connecting to a previously well engineered electrical grid that used to optimize quality and economics.
This would be a real shame. Scotland was once a source of some of the world’s best innovators and engineers.
“raised concerns that an electricity system designed specifically for gas and coal-fired generation is being asked to take on a new form of supply without having undergone full engineering assessment.” Anybody with half a brain can understand, that without huge storage capacity, fully depending on wind and solar for ALL your energy needs is a disaster. How can people like this be given the power to dictate such important government policy? Liberals seem to think because they give their blesses to such endeavors as this that it magically happens. No further action needed. Time and again we see this sort of behavior.
I’m a resident of Scotland, and don’t believe that major blackouts will ever happen for the following reason. We currently have 2 nuclear plants, Huntersten and Toreness, between them supplying aprox 2GW of power, plus 0.5GW of hydro, a smallish gas fired power station, and it is very rare to get no power from (far too many) wind turbines. Peak demand rarely exceeds 3GW, so we’re fine for now. While the Scottish government may be incompetent, they are not totally stupid, and once someone points out what will happen if the nuclear plants were to close, I think they will see a bit of sense and keep them running for a few more years while they come up with a sensible alternative, probably relatively quick to build combined cycle gas turbine stations. (I bet I’ll still have the electricity I need to view WUWT whenever I want to in 2024)
You canny Scots !
Here the doppies knocked down the base load coal fired power plant in 2016 to prove their pure intentions. Instead they proved their own stupidity. And the Labor government that presided over that little stuff up is gone; it exists no more; demolished away by voter anger..
yes a ‘System Black” is an excellent way of focusing voter attention ! A voter revolution that I am proud to say I played a ( very small ) part..And I was a member of the Australian Labor Party for 20 years….
Good grief !
PS : I notice that Griff is still missing in action..It was only a hunch that he is our own dearly ‘beloved’ Senator Stirling Griff – Senator for South Australia in the Australian Commonwealth parliament….Leader of our Center Alliance party, now effectively reborn as a Greenish Alliance…
Sad to tell “the compromised supply of food, water, heat, money, petrol” resulting in “deaths, severe societal and industrial disruption, civil disturbance and loss of production”
is political wanted and any intervention is prone to prosecution.
Nice post this; brings many old (ancient?) memories.
Remember power plants have finite life-spans and would need replacement with updated techniques and materials. Also power plant engineers have finite working life spans, and cannot be replaced by lawyers and accountants.
Nice research Rob. The math bears out your conclusion that LEDs are less costly of the life of the bulbs compared to the alternatives. I wonder whether 20+ years is what one can realistically expect from an LED bulb’s lifespan. I remember expecting 10 years or so from CFLs but never saw that ever. When I would put in a new CFL, I would write the installation date on the bulb’s socket for reference. Usually I’d have a CFL last for about 2 years max. I hope LED bulbs last 20 years but I’m wary of those claims. All my LEDs have installation dates written on them.