Guest drive-by by David Middleton
NEWS 27 SEPTEMBER 2018
Arctic sea ice continues its downward spiral
At 4.6 million square kilometres in coverage, this year’s sea ice minimum is the sixth lowest on record.
Arctic sea-ice cover following this summer’s melt was the sixth lowest on record, the US National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, announced on 27 September.
[…]
There are 40 September ice extent minima “on record”… How is the 6th lowest out of 40 the continuation of a “spiral” or anything else?
Spiral
Which definition of “spiral” fits this graph?
The “the sixth lowest on record” is the continuation of 12 years of no significant change in the September extent…
References
Fetterer, F., K. Knowles, W. Meier, M. Savoie, and A. K. Windnagel. 2017, updated daily. Sea Ice Index, Version 3. [Indicate subset used]. Boulder, Colorado USA. NSIDC: National Snow and Ice Data Center. doi: https://doi.org/10.7265/N5K072F8. [Accessed September 26, 2018].
- ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis
- ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Monthly_Data_by_Year_G02135_v3.0.xlsx
Middleton, D.H. 2018. Another Dis-alarming Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice. Watts Up With That?
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What strikes me about the extent graph, is that if you make the 2007 and 2012 (denizens say freakish and caused by a storm anyway) extents less extreme than the long-term trend-line, then it is exactly on track.
Which is why choosing a short period tells you nothing of it.
The illusion of a “corner turned” depends on ignoring the fact that 2007 and 2012 where outliers.
Only 2012 was due to a storm in August. Not 2007.
I know. That’s what I said. The comment in brackets comes after 2012.
This is more of a “spiral”…
The most persistent trend for Arctic sea-ice is the reduction in max extent.
Well, it’s just a case of moving the goal posts, yet again.
In 2007, Arctic sea ice minimum was the poster child “canary in the coal mine” for alarmists. Again in 2012. When ice volume jumped back up by 45% in 2013 this went TOTALLY unreported.
Attention then switched to Antarctica, which had previously been carefully hidden since sea ice was increasing there while they wailed about Arctic sea ice.
Now the annual minimum does not fit the alarmist agenda they pivot to talking about the max extent. In short they pick any variable which at the current time can be declared a “canary” and wilfully obscure the fact that the previous canary is feeling fine.
The whole point of canaries is not just to look when they are sick to but to note when they are healthy meaning it is SAFE to carry on mining COAL.
“Now the annual minimum does not fit the alarmist agenda they pivot to talking about the max extent”
There may or may not be an “alarmist” agenda but one thing is for sure – this place will be sure to find one.
BUT it is not the IPCC agenda (repository if the consensus science)…..
Arctic Sea-ice decline is below IPCC projections.
Wrong.
All of the models from RCP8.5 to RCP2.6 are still clustered. September sea ice extent is closest to RCP6.0, but very close to all of them and well-within the 95% probability band of all of the scenarios, including RCP2.6.
Your image ends in 2016. 2017 was right on RCP4.5 (a strong mitigation scenario). Also note that the bottom of 95% probability band for RCP4.5 is actually below that of RCP8.5 (bad science fiction)…
“Wrong”
The graph shows what I said …
“Arctic Sea-ice decline is below IPCC projections.”
I didn’t say by what amount.
Therefore not wrong.
“Below IPCC projections” would be below the shaded areas.
It’s all the way “down” to 102% of the Arctic Ocean…
Who would have guessed that 116% ice coverage gave us “The Ice Age Cometh?”, while 102% is a “Horror Story”?
Just imagine the headlines if Warmunist buffoons were around during the rest of the Holocene…
Well cutting a section through a spiral wouldn’t be expected to show the spiral nature. Try these different ways of showing the total seasonal behavior.
http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/sie_nsidc_annual_polar_graph.png
I would expect any section sliced through a spiral to converge on its central axis.
That is what I call a real artful diagram, variety “truncated axis”.
The “zero point” is 82,3 % of the top of the diagram….
And Sea-ice is still at near-record levels for the Holocene:
http://sci-hub.tw/10.1002/jqs.2929
And in the Northwest Passage the downward spiral is clearly absent, at least if applied to ice conditions….
http://arcticnorthwestpassage.blogspot.com/2018/09/an-early-end-to-arctics-2018-minimum.html
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Regional_Daily_Data_G02135_v3.0.xlsx
Canadian Archipelago Sea Ice Areas in 2017 AND 2018 are substantially higher than recent years!
The average for September was more than double 2015, triple the (record low) in 2012.
Regional Sea Ice Update.
Bering Sea Ice Area.
At 4269.65 sq km on Oct 03 2018, Bering Sea Ice Area is higher than any reading since 1994.
For the first year ever recorded, Bering Sea Ice did not melt out over the summer months of July-Aug-Sept!
(Actually, Bering Sea Ice (Area) did not melt out in August 2016 and 2017 either, but those values were erased this summer when the NSIDC changed them to 0.0 on 23 July. There were occasional 0.0 values for the Bering Sea in Sept 2016 and 2017 before those were erased as well.)
Before it changes.
[Added line for year to clarify table. .mod]
For the first year ever recorded, Bering Sea Ice did not melt out over the summer months of July-Aug-Sept!
As I have explained to you before the Bering sea ice melted out in May but you keep posting the same nonsense.
Look at all the ice in the Bering now, see the big chunk in the bay on the east side of the strait.
Now look at the satellite photo of the same bay:
https://go.nasa.gov/2Nn9mTk
See no ice!
Yes, you have said that before.
Now, please address the question: “What area of Arctic sea ice at latitude 60 north is “important”?
Is the “loss” of 1 sq kilometer of sea ice serious? Obviously not.
But the NSIDC maintains records to 0.001 sq kilometer.
Is the “loss” of 10 sq kilometers of sea ice serious? Obviously not.
But the NSIDC retains records of such sea ice values – unless they are between 01 August and 01 Sept. Then they delete them.
Is the “loss” of 100 sq kilometers of sea ice serious? Obviously not.
yet the total of all NH sea ice shelves is less than 500 sq kilometers – but THOSE are considered a vital indication of Arctic warming, and MUST be corrected to prevent future ice shelf loss. (At least according to the climate researchers who make their lives studying the northern hemisphere sea ice shelves off of Greenland and Canada.)
But the NSIDC retains records of those sea ice values below 100 sq kilometers – unless they are between 01 August and 01 Sept. Then they delete them.
Is the “loss” of 1000 sq kilometers of sea ice serious? Not so obvious an answer, is it?
But the NSIDC retains records of such sea ice values – unless they are between 01 August and 01 Sept.
The NSIDC INCREASES sea ice areas as much as 6000 sq kilometers – as long as they are between 01 October and 01 July 2016 and 01 October and 01 July 2017.
Otherwise, the NSIDDC reduces sea ice areas.
This for the Sea of Okhotsk, data from the NSIDC database through 03 Oct 2018.
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 July 1.0 15610.7 28688.9 11604.9 35561.8 13757.0 11664.8 19608.2 24567.8 18600.8 16452.7 14444.1 21851.5 15635.2 8350.9 15373.0 31406.4 16756.8 23458.2 13469.7 13197.2 13601.5 2.0 12028.6 21463.4 8941.4 25715.9 9962.0 9456.5 14451.0 17849.3 14262.1 11948.6 9977.9 17122.7 10866.3 6153.0 11114.0 22655.6 12864.4 17117.3 9163.2 8959.9 10618.8 3.0 8036.4 14454.9 5871.1 16689.2 7074.3 6488.8 9445.5 12088.5 9428.7 7545.9 5700.5 11644.2 7131.4 4318.5 7321.9 14793.0 8673.9 11224.6 5145.4 5670.7 8062.7 4.0 3594.2 6850.4 3421.8 8086.1 3843.3 3429.1 4655.9 6236.9 4423.1 3158.7 2602.8 6241.8 4099.5 2303.0 4066.2 7583.8 4868.1 5084.3 2463.6 2464.1 6234.5 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4152.9 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4402.7 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4367.6 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4513.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4592.3 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4666.1 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4446.9 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4444.4 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4499.3 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4249.7 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4246.3 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4050.3 17.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4061.0 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3940.0 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4170.2 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5290.0 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5747.4 22.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5660.9 23.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5490.2 24.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5238.8 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4070.6 26.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3679.5 27.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3669.3 28.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4568.1 29.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4575.7 30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4640.1 31.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4795.9 August 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5756.4 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5712.5 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5902.8 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6048.3 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6383.5 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6254.3 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5925.5 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6239.9 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 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0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7246.5 Sept 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5928.2 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4745.6 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3528.3 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2327.5 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 882.9 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 906.6 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1246.4 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1285.6 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 744.4 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 771.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 850.9 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 614.8 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 646.7 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 751.2 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 774.5 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 705.8 17.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 575.6 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 614.0 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 567.9 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.2 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 597.8 22.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 655.6 23.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 600.6 24.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 574.1 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 475.4 26.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 435.2 27.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 361.8 28.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 372.7 29.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 462.3 30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 563.5 October 1.0 4259.9 3272.4 1274.7 2430.1 3273.7 2346.2 2726.6 3141.0 2970.8 2680.1 2215.1 2514.9 2800.8 4021.7 4261.7 3924.8 4683.2 5307.5 2577.1 4055.6 4101.2 2.0 8192.3 5558.5 2534.9 5449.5 6668.0 4851.5 4878.1 5613.0 6049.1 4823.9 3833.3 6854.4 4717.5 7276.3 7890.5 10216.5 9948.9 10923.7 5910.1 8481.0 8430.5 3.0 12283.0 7729.1 4227.3 8068.9 9758.1 6368.6 7122.4 8522.0 8661.6 7829.7 6224.2 11102.7 7169.3 10767.3 11647.5 17630.7 13191.1 15199.1 9063.6 11599.7 11256.9Now, please address the question: “What area of Arctic sea ice at latitude 60 north is “important”?
Is the “loss” of 1 sq kilometer of sea ice serious? Obviously not.
But the NSIDC maintains records to 0.001 sq kilometer.
Is the “loss” of 10 sq kilometers of sea ice serious? Obviously not.
But the NSIDC retains records of such sea ice values – unless they are between 01 August and 01 Sept. Then they delete them.
Is the “loss” of 100 sq kilometers of sea ice serious? Obviously not.
The daily data has certain inaccuracies, notably connected with the land/sea boundary, at later dates the data is reprocessed with a more accurate method . As you can see from the daily chart I showed, a few pixels show up where there is no ice, one pixel is 625 km^2, so the 4269.65 km^2 is about 7 pixels. However we know that the biggest single piece of that doesn’t exist, so when later processed it will be removed.
yet the total of all NH sea ice shelves is less than 500 sq kilometers – but THOSE are considered a vital indication of Arctic warming, and MUST be corrected to prevent future ice shelf loss. (At least according to the climate researchers who make their lives studying the northern hemisphere sea ice shelves off of Greenland and Canada.)
But the NSIDC retains records of those sea ice values below 100 sq kilometers – unless they are between 01 August and 01 Sept. Then they delete them.
Well ice shelves are rather thicker so constitute more ice than you would expect from their area. However they also serve a structural function which is very important. For example in 2002 a large fragment of the Ward Hunt ice shelf broke away, which exposed a lake that was dammed behind it and now it no longer exists exists. The fragments being fairly thick ice can take a long time to melt and can pose a threat to navigation for a couple of years. Not as bad as those in the antarctic though which are much bigger and longer lived.
The trend looks downward to me, with a possible bottoming out in recent years. That could indicate the beginning of an inflection point where the trend reverses, or it could simply be a change in the rate of decline. From the length of time shown, it’s hard to be emphatic. For anyone who was concerned about declining ice extent, that chart isn’t going to convince them to change their views.
One thing it does NOT show is an accelerating decline.
What is this “Meriiam-Webster” thing?
Here is the definition given in The One True Dictionary:
https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/spiral
For we, the unscientific english speaking public, to spiral down evokes images of something falling from the sky … plummeting would be too strong a word… a spiral on the other may or may not have some control but can still evoke a high rate. Painting a picture… their propaganda machine is immense and targets the 60% who have no clue about anything and the 35% who might have a clue. That leaves you 5% who actually have clue.
‘This year’s sea ice minimum is the sixth lowest on record.’
Great! How many lives will this save?