By Spencer Walrath, Energy In Depth
The New York Times Magazine has published an entire issue devoted to a single investigative piece on climate change, which observes that by the late 1970s and early 1980s, “everybody knew” it was happening. The conclusion is a major blow to climate activists, who have spent years engaging in a political campaign targeting energy companies for supposedly covering up the risks of climate change, and thus preventing global action.
The author, Nathaniel Rich, writes that from 1979 to 1989 humanity had the best opportunity it has ever had to solve global warming and that “nothing stood in our way – nothing except ourselves.” Rich even goes as far as to say that “[a] common boogeyman today is the fossil-fuel industry,” but during the time when “everybody knew,” oil companies “including Exxon and Shell, made good-faith efforts to understand the scope of the crisis and grapple with possible solutions.”
This lengthy report shreds the narrative put out by anti-oil and gas activists in recent years. As Rich told PBS NewsHour:
“By 1979, there was a strong consensus within the scientific community about the nature of the problem. The fundamental science hasn’t really evolved since then. It’s only been refined really. There was no politicization of the issue throughout the decade. A number of prominent Republicans were leading the charge to insist on a major climate policy, and industry, which we now blame for much of our paralysis, had not turned against science or truth and if anything, especially in the early part of the decade, was engaged in trying to understand the problem and determine solutions…
“By the mid-50s, you had top government scientists speaking about the issue. You had major articles in Life Magazine and Time. So it wasn’t just industry that was following it. It was at the highest levels of government. Lyndon Johnson sent a special message to Congress in 1965 that discussed the problem.” (emphasis added)
If all of humanity was informed of the dangers of climate change in the 1970s and agreed that something needed to be done, how can activists lay the blame for global inaction at the feet of the industry and political partisanship? As Rich writes,
“The rallying cry of this multipronged legal effort is ‘Exxon Knew.’ It is incontrovertibly true that senior employees at the company that would later become Exxon, like those at most other major oil-and-gas corporations, knew about the dangers of climate change as early as the 1950s. But the automobile industry knew, too, and began conducting its own research by the early 1980s, as did the major trade groups representing the electrical grid. They all own responsibility for our current paralysis and have made it more painful than necessary. But they haven’t done it alone.
“The United States government knew. Roger Revelle began serving as a Kennedy administration adviser in 1961, five years after establishing the Mauna Loa carbon-dioxide program, and every president since has debated the merits of acting on climate policy. Carter had the Charney report, Reagan had ‘Changing Climate’ and Bush had the censored testimony of James Hansen and his own public vow to solve the problem. Congress has been holding hearings for 40 years; the intelligence community has been tracking the crisis even longer.
“Everybody knew. In 1958, on prime-time television, ‘The Bell Science Hour’ — one of the most popular educational film series in American history — aired ‘The Unchained Goddess,’ a film about meteorological wonders, produced by Frank Capra, a dozen years removed from ‘It’s a Wonderful Life,’ warning that ‘man may be unwittingly changing the world’s climate’ through the release of carbon dioxide. ‘A few degrees’ rise in the Earth’s temperature would melt the polar ice caps,’ says the film’s kindly host, the bespectacled Dr. Research. ‘An inland sea would fill a good portion of the Mississippi Valley. Tourists in glass-bottomed boats would be viewing the drowned towers of Miami through 150 feet of tropical water.’ Capra’s film was shown in science classes for decades.
“Everyone knew — and we all still know.” (emphasis added)
This conclusion – that #EveryoneKnew – is even supported by activists, though they haven’t yet followed their arguments to their logical conclusion.
Groups like the Union of Concerned Scientists and Greenpeace were quick to follow #ExxonKnew with #ShellKnew and #UtilitiesKnew, blaming every company they don’t like while failing to acknowledge their own amnesia on climate change. The idea that energy companies “knew everything there was to know about climate change,” as Bill McKibben likes to say, and that the rest of us didn’t know about it until James Hansen testified before Congress in 1988, “is one of the worst examples we have of the cultural amnesia of this country and especially around this issue,” Rich told NewsHour.
Confirming that Rich’s narrative is a direct threat to the multi-million-dollar campaign they have waged in recent years, anti-energy activists intensely criticized the report before it was even released.
The loudest pre-buttal came from Hunter Cutting, a director of strategic communications for Climate Nexus, a project of the Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors. The Rockefellers have funded every aspect of the #ExxonKnew campaign, and are no doubt alarmed by the New York Times contradicting the very basis for their campaign.
The activist group 350.org also condemned the story shortly after it was published.
Rich’s story ultimately concludes that it’s too simplistic to point your finger at one company, industry, or political party for inaction on climate change, which is a complex global problem. The issue was receiving mainstream media attention and was the subject of multiple Congressional hearings in the 1970s and 1980s, long before the supposed “disinformation campaign” that environmental activists cite ever began.
It may not have been the intent of New York Times Magazine to throw cold water on a fringe environmental activists campaign, but the damage has clearly been done. The attempt at damage control from the #ExxonKnew campaign is only beginning.
Full story here
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“The fundamental science hasn’t really evolved since then [1979].”
If your science hasn’t evolved from the starting hypothesis, maybe it’s time to revisit the hypothesis.
Just more evidence that Climate Change is now fully a religion based on an affirmation of faith and the underlying dogma.
That the atmosphere would be 33 K colder without greenhouse gases is obviously wrong.
An atmosphere will increase the average global air temperature, but since don’t have air temperature without atmosphere, it also increases ground or a ocean surface average temperature.
Other elements other than an atmosphere can also increase the average global temperature, rotation will increase average temperature as will tilt of the rotation.
The insulative or conductive nature of the surface will affect the average temperature- the moon’s highly insulative surface lowers it’s average temperature. Though if Moon had atmosphere the lack conduction of heat below surface would be replaced atmospheric gas being heated. If Moon had any transparent substance whether gas or liquid, it’s highly insulative regolith would lower the average temperature less.
And Earth’s transparent oceans increase Earth’s average temperature and elements which would make the ocean less transparent will lower Earth’s average temperature.
The Earth ocean hold far more energy than the transparent atmosphere and the oceans major element increasing Earth average temperature.
There is enough ocean water to completely cover all the land with more than mile ocean above it, if Earth were completely covered with ocean so ocean was at least a mile deep, Earth’s average temperature would be higher than 15 C.
But you also have a lack of hot days- instead it would a warm and humid world with average temperature of about 25 C.
Having land surfaces allows hotter days [+40 C], but Earth’s land net effect decreases global average temperatures.
So Earth without an ocean or covered only with land, would have hot days but also cooler nights- you get hot days in summers or tropics where it is always summer, but where sun is lower on horizon [outside of tropics] days are cooler and nights are much colder.
Or currently average ocean surface is 17 C and average land is 10 C. And land is warmed by the ocean. Ocean would be warmer if not warming the land. Land would be much cooler without being warmed by the warmer ocean.
One way to reduce land cooling effect is have land be less dry- deserts are global cooling effect, and irrigating the Sahara desert would be global warming effect.
In 1979 I sat in on a presentation based upon planetary orbits and resultant volcanism that predicted global cooling. Can’t remember the professor’s name but he was nationally known. Anyone know whom I am talking about?
The fundamental science hasn’t really evolved since then, but speculation over the impacts of that science has evolved into abuse of the (now much exaggerated) fundamental premise, for purposes of implementing multiple social, political, and fiscal agendas on a global scale.
If the masses of humanity “lose the earth” it will be lost to despotic global dictatorship.
Thomas Homer
The fundamental CO2 science
has not evolved since 1896
— Co2 is a greenhouse gas.
The alleged effect of CO2
on the average temperature
is nothing more than speculation,
first publicized in the
1979 Charney Report,
and never changed since than,
in spite of no evidence that a doubling
of Co2 will cause +3 degrees C. of warming,
+/- 1.5 degrees C.
We’ve always know that the climate was changing. It’s just that the change of the change from global cooling to global warming caused many to realize that climatologist cannot predict anything with enough certainty to promulgate public policy that could do more harm than good.
A real problem is the current 60 year cycle of 30 years warm and 30 years cool. That’s a human adult lifetime. I remember the cold ’60s and ’70s, and it’s fer shure warmer now, but I don’t remember the hot dust bowl years to compare with because I wasn’t around then. My parents remembered the dust bowl, but they’re not around now.
When the government data gatekeepers alter the old records to suit their agenda, who can tell them from first hand knowledge they’re wrong?
1910 is colder now than it was in 1910, and it’s going to get even colder in the future, but the folks who read those thermometers back then aren’t able to complain.
You got it, Mike!
I’m getting worried about the folks in 1910. It’s getting colder and colder according to NASA GISS records. And – sob! – it’s all the fault of wicked mankind whose very presence on Mother Earth puts her in danger. /sarc
If those temps in 1910 keep getting lower, my grandparents will get frost bite.
Human life evolves (i.e. chaotic process) from conception. Climate changes, with anthropogenic influence in a limited frame of reference. And the world goes around and around and around. NYT is last to know.
the Rockefeller Foundation funded the eugenic research in Germany and even funded the program that Josef Mengele worked in before he went to Auschwitz.
And they also funded that researcher at McGill university in Canada that was connected to the MKUltra issue. Interesting that this issue was ‘investigated’ by both the Church and Rockefeller commissions.
Bet dollars to doughnuts that the Rockefeller ‘investigation’ of MKUltra was pure crap and coverup.
“which observes that by the late 1970s and early 1980s, “everybody knew” it was happening.”
CO2 theory….which is the theory of global warming…is over 100 years old
…and in 100 years, they have never gotten one prediction right
JULY 4, 1923
MacMILLAN SAILS NORTH.; Explorer Hopes to Determine Whether New “Ice Age” Is Coming.
https://www.nytimes.com/1923/07/04/archives/macmillan-sails-north-explorer-hopes-to-determine-whether-new-ice.html
“which observes that by the late 1970s and early 1980s, “everybody knew” it was happening.”
…everyone but the NYT it seems
New York Times May 21, 1975;
Major Cooling May be Ahead
http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/ny-times-1975-05-21.pdf
“everybody knew” ? Well I didn’t , I’d been told we were at risk of tipping into a new “ice age” just like the rest of public being told stories by the media rewriting what “climate experts” were saying.
“everybody knew” ? barefaced lies.
What amazes me is the persistence of this myopic modern doomsday cult. “The Climate is Changing…. and We’re the Ones Killing the Earth!” It’s the oldest pagan con game in this world! “The spirits are angry – We must appease them!” declares the Shaman. And the tribe dances and flagellates…
The Propheteers of Doom fleece the gullible ‘modern and educated’ marks to purchase their next gorebull warming financed seaside mansion… as the ‘modern and educated’ marks seek salvation in the meaningless virtue signalling penance of ‘eliminating plastic straws’ and similar drek.
As for me, I will remain a man innocent of participation in such self-delusion or any lasting detrimental effects on our Earth, for that matter.
Innocent Man – Billy Joel
https://youtu.be/H23tUK3z17U
“The world is coming to an end unless we throw a hundred virgins onto the bonfire,” sayeth the Shaman. So the peasants comply, and the world doesn’t end. Obviously the strategy works!
It’s a false equivalency to compare religion with science. The high tech hand-held smart-phones we are conversing with is proof (that you can actually look at) that science is real and it works.
You can’t deny just some of science. And only accept the science that you like. It doesn’t work that way.
Science is the best tool we have for finding the truth.
Btw, you don’t get to weigh in on science unless you are science literate.
Science is so unscientific.
“Btw, you don’t get to weigh in on science unless you are science literate”
So that will be you shutting up then.
Not one prediction right, huh… like increased floods, fire storms and heatwaves? World-wide heatwaves? And gradually Increasing temps as the CO2 concentration has increased? These were all predicted to happen in our future 30 years ago.
There is no doubt these things are happening now. Physical measurements prove it.
Tigerdog
You’ve been reading the MSM haven’t you? Silly boy.
“NOAA tornado data”
“According to the MunichRe data for Europe floods, there does not appear to be much going on, other than a big spike in 2002, the year of the big Central European floods.”
“Attempts to link the increasing economic losses from weather disasters with climate change are bedevilled with unknowable variables and bias. What we do know though is that they are reducing as a proportion of GDP:”
Thanks to Paul Homewood for the data.
Not one prediction right, huh… like increased floods, fire storms and heatwaves? World-wide heatwaves? And gradually Increasing temps as the CO2 concentration has increased? These were all predicted to happen in our future 30 years ago
And that actual scientific data (as Hot Scot points out) contradicts that narrative. That you are unaware of the actual scientific data shows how scientifically illiterate you are. Now what was that someone recently said? Oh yeah “you don’t get to weigh in on science unless you are science literate”.
THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES
In which case global warming would be beneficial.
No, the “best opportunity” was lost on March 31, 2009 when the Waxman-Markey carbon tax bill (and massive redistribution of wealth slush fund) passed the House but right before the phone lines to congressional offices caught fire with constituent rage. Dems have been in retreat in local districts ever since.
Wasn’t that when the Dems had the WH, Senate, and House?
Yes, but their switchboard lit up like a Christmas tree.
Hmm.
More mass hysteria.
What did everyone know? That releasing an extra few percent of various substances into the environment could affect it?
In which direction?
How much?
Would this be a mitigating or compounding effect on current trends?
Would it be beneficial or harmful?
Bit of a pointless article not addressing these
They didn’t know what the climate was going to do then, and they don’t know now.
Exxon can’t prove humans are causing the climate to change and neither can anyone else. Claiming to know, is a lie because it can’t be backed up with any evidence, now or then.
Ridiculous propaganda and lies.
This is a case of “if you repeat a lie long enough it will be percieved as the “truth”. Although, apparently most Americans and most of the other people of the world don’t believe in CAGW.
The climate change propagandists forgot one essential part of their propaganda: They failed to shut down the opposition and didn’t control the entire message. Instead, there were alternate voices who have poked holes in their CAGW nightmares.
One other reason the climate alarmists are losing this argument is they have cried climate disaster for so long without any of these disasters happening that people just tune them out anymore.
Good points, Tom, but you forgot to list the short time horizon they gave for the end of the world. I think that was a b-i-g mistake.
“By the year 2000… no wait! By 2010…. no wait! By 2020… no wait! 2030 maybe?”
The doom-mongers didn’t catch on to predicting “by 2100” before it was too late. Too many EOTWAWKI deadlines passed with nothing happening and now, in any given snowstorm, the hoi polloi can be heard making jokes about Global Warming.
‘Climate Change’ was a poor choice for a substitute because to the small percentage of ‘True Believers,’ Climate Change still means CAGW while everybody else says, “So what? Climate changes. Everybody knows that.”
P.S. I have always been a strong supporter of Global Warming because the alternative is much worse. I keep rooting for global warming but I suspect that another glaciation will occur despite my desire for the opposite.
Good points, HR. 🙂
NYT
“Losing Earth”…
One subscriber at a time.
There’s no point continuing to blame the oil companies. Every lawsuit against the oil companies has failed so far.
Continuing to try to blame the oil companies for CAGW sounds like the very definition of insanity. link
I would never have purchased gasoline or turned on the furnace or water heater if they had not hidden the truth from me.
I am an innocent man. Oh yes I am.
Everybody knew…
something that has yet to be verified outside of heavily parameterized models.
After the Ozone hole rehearsal, it is true that the decade 1979-1989 was the best opportunity for the scammers to convince the world… That they could not and reality of nature, despite their falsifications and their world wide advocacy, is a testimony to human resilience to propaganda.
Nobody in 1960 “knew,” in the scientific sense, that CO2 emissions would cause climate warming. I’ve read some of the literature. CO2 radiative transfer to kinetic energy was worked out in the 1950s.
By the early 1960’s there was debate in the literature about whether CO2 emissions would cause warming or not. The most pointed was between Gilbert Plass (yes) and Fritz Moeller (no one knows because the climate is not understood).
The 1979 Charney & co report said what everyone agreed: that CO2 emissions would warm the climate if nothing else changed.
No change in cloud type or cover; no change in convection; no change in precipitation; no change in water evaporation/condensation; no change in Willis Eschenbach’s tropical thunderstorm cooling mechanism.
No one knew how or whether any of that would change (and who knows what else) when CO2 emissions converted IR radiant energy into kinetic energy and injected that into the atmosphere.
No one knows still yet today, either. Science has not marched on in climatology. Mostly because of the tyranny of climate modeling.
Nathaniel Rich’s entire thesis is wrong. It’s not supported by the history of science or of the debate about CO2 emissions and climate. No one knew then (1960’s), no one knows now, and Jim Hansen certainly did not know in 1988 when he portrayed his ideas with such certainty.
The entire field of consensus climatology and its media hangers-on, the entire recent history of AGW, has made its living off false precision and nothing else … well, except for the shouting and the censorship.
One of the supposedly most damning documents was the 1968 Robinson Report for the American Petroleum Institute (API).
One of the reproduced pages from this damning report referenced Möller (1963) as the source of a 1-7 °F rise in temperature due to a 25% rise in atmospheric CO2…
Well, being a scientist, a sedimentary geologist to be more specific, I was curious. So I looked up Möller (1963) and found the abstract to this seminal publication…
Thus the theory that climatic variations are effected by variations in the CO2 content becomes very questionable.
This was priceless!!! So I spent $6 to rent the paper for 48 hours. Here are some highlights:
So, way back in 1963, the entire oil industry knew exactly what we know today:
The entire theory of climatic changes by CO2 variations is questionable.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/04/18/smoke-fumes-part-deux-exxon-knew-the-entire-theory-of-climatic-changes-by-co2-variations-is-questionable/
David and Pat,
Thank you for the history of this.
I was a college student in ’63 — no mention of any of this in the basic science classes.
Now I think global warming doom is in all text books — and wrong.
I was a science student in the mid-1980s, and also studied physical geography, climatology, and meteorology for several of the years I was an undergrad (which back then were humanities classes).
And I can vividly recall reading all about this, all of it, including the Mona Loa graph of CO2, and the uncertainty of any of it, and the uncertainty as to whether warming even COULD be bad, since it has always been regarded that warm periods are highly beneficial to life and to people.
In light of the much more certain knowledge that the interglacial was over 10,000 years old, and the last four of them, at least, had lasted no longer than 10,000 years, and hardly anyone was worried about the faint chance that the globe might warm substantially.
I have known since Hansen gave his testimony that he was way off base, that hardly any warming had occurred compared to recent cooling, and that it was actually a very clement period we are lucky enough to be alive in.
Back then only people who did not pay attention to such things took seriously the notion that the heat that Summer was some unprecedented event.
It was not even unusual.
Natural variation was understood to encompass everything that was then occurring.
What was very worrisome was the possibility that a large volcanic eruption or a nuclear exchange could cause substantial and immediate cooling…and cooling was KNOWN to be bad.
The idea that we must be in fear of a warmer world is the most successful part of the whole bugaboo of global warming…being that we are in an ice age and vast areas of the planet are literally deadly cold, either permanently or seasonally.
Congratulations on doing the scientific thing and going to the source. Very informative. Impossible to see how they could have mistakenly reinterpreted this paper to say the opposite of what was intended. This is deliberate fakery. It is really refreshing to read a bit of science that was only meant to try and determine the limits of known truth – not to build a scientific reputation, a achieve a political goal or acquire some academic dream job at taxpayer expense.
You want fakery? Or, more precisely, idiocy?
To these morons, the relevance of climate change to sedimentary geology is also one of primary bits of “evidence” in the incredibly moronic #ExxonKnew fraud.
These people are so fracking stupid that they can’t differentiate the scientifically challenged AGW hypothesis from the application of paleoclimatology to sedimentary geology.
As stupid as that passage was, it did stumble upon one of the two pillars of sedimentary geology: paleoclimatology. The other pillar being paleogeography. It also ignorantly refers to one of the greatest scientific breakthroughs in the history of geology: Sequence stratigraphy, as if it was some sort of tobacco-style conspiracy.
A few eustatic sea level charts from Vail et al., 1977:
1st order and 2nd order sea level cycles over the Phanerozoic Eon. Vail, et al., 1977.
Global cycles of sea level changes from Late Triassic through Tertiary. Vail et al., 1977.
Global cycles of sea level change over Cenozoic Era.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/08/01/the-guardian-climate-change-denial-wont-even-benefit-oil-companies-soon-is-it-even-grammatically-possible-to-deny-climate-change/
I have Möller’s paper, if you’d like a permanent copy, David.
Thanks Pat. I saved it as an image file… so I have a readable copy.
😎
“So, way back in 1963, the entire oil industry knew exactly what we know today: The entire theory of climatic changes by CO2 variations is questionable.”
Love it! Excellent scientific research, David!
So Exxon really *didn’t* know and neither does anyone else, then or now. Anyone who claims to know, or claims to know someone who does know, is just fooling themselves or are being disingenuous.
I bet Judge Alsup would be interested in Moeller’s publication.
“Lost the Earth”? I think I missed the mass exodus of humanity to Mars.
Sigh. Maybe people would take the media and claims about climate change more seriously if the writers didn’t resort to lies and exaggerations.
But if we already lost the battle then I guess there’s no point in pushing renewables and banning plastic anymore.
Clearly New York Times is a just cover. The rearranged letters give the true name: Monkeys Write.
+100
Someone forgot to tell Mr Spock.
The New York Times. If the news fits, we’ll print.
“All the news that fits, we print.”
Fixed it for them.
Gray Lady down
You’d think that since the Earth is a ‘lost cause’, they’d move on to the ‘acceptance’ stage (well, you would if you hadn’t seen the progressive reaction to the 2016 election).
Just imagine if they would free themselves from their own paranoia.
Although, to be fair, that only applies to those not being deliberately deceptive.
I thought they’d all moved on to the ‘biodiversity’ scam now? Maybe it’s just the clueless dead-enders who are clinging to the sinking ship of ‘Climate Change’.
If the excerpts are representative of the whole article, then there is much more wrong with it than the exposure of the #exxonknew farce. If scientists knew of “the issue” in the ’50s, when their rants concerned “nuclear winter”, then they didn’t “speak” very loudly about it. If LBJ was up to date on “the problem” in ’65, then his message would have been about the “coming ice age”, 20 years after the beginning of “global cooling”, which was still the rage for another decade. As long as Rich keeps talking about “the issue” and “the problem” without defining either, it is no wonder that he thinks that nothing in “the science” has changed for the last four decades.
That was my impression of the South Bronx in the 70s from movies. Not sure what the real story is today other than some media-driven cop killings.
The New York Times has lost the plot.
I doubt they ever had a plot to lose.
The New York Times never had a plot, just a narrative
It’s patently absurd to say that everyone knew global warming (now known as climate change) was happening in 1979, since not everyone today even agrees that it is happening or if it is happening, to what degree. Up until about 1975, the consensus science was that we were in danger of entering a new ice age. Global cooling made headlines in every major newspaper and news magazine. For “everyone” to suddenly change on a dime and now agree that the earth was on a runaway warming trend is ridiculous. Even the most ardent know-nothing hippie environmentalists had to what until James Hansen’s 1988 congressional testimony to be convinced that the world was about to end due to warming. And the general population had to wait to be duped by Al Gore’s convenient lies movie.
While this NY Times claim makes those who want to blame big-oil uncomfortable, it is really an effort by know-nothing journalists to try to move people who are unsure of AGW off the fence by telling them that “everyone” knew about this 40 years ago, so who are you to doubt it.
Another simplistic article by the hysterical crowd. Not even today does science know everything that is to be known. Why can’t the warmists at least try to discuss the complexity involved and that the issue is one of attribution of warming. They just fumble around with the sophistication of struggling sophomores in a beginning statistics class.
Because they are mostly all either ignorant of the complexity, or in way too deep to start to hem and haw now.
In the 70’s they were screaming that we were going to freeze to death. Short memories make history repeat itself much faster.
Indeed. But I suspect the target audience is those who weren’t born yet in the 70s and thus don’t have the memory of what had been going on then. As Dan in a post above this one so aptly noted:
” it is really an effort by know-nothing journalists to try to move people who are unsure of AGW off the fence by telling them that “everyone” knew about this 40 years ago, so who are you to doubt it”