Worse and worser claim: More category 5 hurricanes forecasted by scientists

From CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY and the “Hurricane Sandy was not a Cat5 storm but let’s not worry about such details for headlines” department.

More category 5 hurricanes forecasted by scientists

New research investigates the impact that dust storms played in the formation of Hurricane Sandy

In the midst of hurricane season, climatologists around the world are monitoring tropical storm formations that have the potential to escalate into deadly hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season included 17 named storms last year, many of which proved to be costly and destructive for communities in their path. Hurricanes are becoming stronger and wetter due to rising sea and air temperatures. Saharan dust storms can also play a role in hurricane formation. Researchers at Chapman University have learned from studying 2012’s Hurricane Sandy, that we are more likely to see larger, more powerful hurricanes in the future.

“Although Sandy was a Category 3 storm when it made landfall in Cuba, it became the largest Atlantic hurricane on record when measured by diameter, with winds spanning 900 miles,” said Chapman University Climatologist Hesham El-Askary, Ph.D.

A Saharan dust event occurring in West Africa weeks before Sandy had formed carried large amounts of mineral dust into the troposphere, filling the tropical wave that became Sandy with aerosols along a majority of its path. By monitoring dust storms, Dr. El-Askary was able to tie this occurrence to the role it played in the hurricane’s development from a Category 1 to a Category 3 storm. With this work, he hopes to provide more accurate forecasting for these types of extreme weather occurrences.

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The research, titled “Characterizing the Impact of Aerosols on Pre-Hurricane Sandy” was published in the IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing. Dr. El-Askary investigates the impact that African dust storms over the Atlantic played in the formation of the tropical storm system that eventually became Hurricane Sandy in October 2012. https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8345587/

Abstract:

This study focuses on the role that African dust over the Atlantic had on the persistence of the tropical system that eventually became Hurricane Sandy in October 2012. On October 8, a Saharan dust event in the Mauritania region of West Africa transported significant amounts of mineral dust into the troposphere and along the path of an easterly wave created by a break in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The Terra/Aqua-MODIS satellite observations clearly define the spatial distribution of the coarse/fine aerosols, while the CALIPSO observations of the total attenuated backscatter at 532 nm provide a detailed view of the vertical structure and aerosol types in the dust-laden layer. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 reanalysis data show the distribution of aerosols along the path of the pre-Sandy wave as well as a second wave that formed north of the ITCZ under different condition. The second wave, which started in an area of relatively larger aerosol optical depth (AOD), moved into an area with abnormally low convective available potential energy and AOD, subsequently dying out, while the wave that became Sandy had light aerosol loading (AOD between 0.15–0.5) along a majority of its path. The evidence suggests that aerosols played a nontrivial role in the maintenance of this system until it moved into an environment favorable for cyclogenesis.
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Peta of Newark
July 19, 2018 9:15 am

Could have been made of Cumbrian ‘Dust’ – then it would have been called ‘Muddy’

Course it was full of Sahara Dust you dipsticks – that’s why it was called ‘Sandy’
Give me strength

Marcus
July 19, 2018 10:13 am

“Although Sandy was a Category 3 storm when it made landfall in Cuba, it became the largest Atlantic hurricane on record when measured by diameter, with winds spanning 900 miles,”

So now we are measuring hurricanes by diameter, ? funny how the “goal posts” keep moving !

Sara
Reply to  Marcus
July 19, 2018 2:36 pm

Well, what else can you expect from people who can’t even give us an accurate forecast of rain for the next 24 hours?

They’re incompetent. At their current rate of failure, in any other job, they’d be canned, regardless of Reed Timmer’s hysterics while chasing violent windstorms known as tornadoes.

I’m more and more convinced that the current crop of so-called meteorologists don’t have the common sense God gave a goat, or the instincts for predicting REAL weather events AT ALL.

Julius Sanks
July 19, 2018 2:25 pm

Not only was Sandy not a cat 5; it had gone extratropical before making landfall and NHC had stopped reporting on it. Sandy was not the problem. The problem was it made landfall on a coast where the residents had not prepared for significant storm surge.

July 19, 2018 3:59 pm

Anthony – I am puzzled by the headline that says “More category 5 hurricanes forecasted by scientists” but I did not see anything like that in the abstract. It’s all about the possible role of dust in possibly amplifying a cyclone.

The body of the paper is paywalled. Is that where he predicts more cat-5s?

Reply to  Smart Rock
July 19, 2018 7:39 pm

No, it’s not mentioned at all, the whole paper is about the development of the pre Cat 1 wave.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/07/19/worse-and-worser-claim-more-category-5-hurricanes-forecasted-by-scientists/#comment-2408375

Jim G.
July 19, 2018 7:14 pm

I remember this article citing Kevin Trenberth back in 2005.

https://abcnews.go.com/2020/HurricaneRita/story?id=1154125&page=1

“There’s good evidence to show that Category 4 and 5 storms indeed are becoming more common…”

hmmm, it became awfully quiet after that year.

Roger Knights
July 20, 2018 7:40 am

“A Saharan dust event occurring in West Africa weeks before Sandy had formed carried large amounts of mineral dust into the troposphere, filling the tropical wave that became Sandy …”

So the storm was fortuitously aptly named.