Another Manntastic Climate Horror Scenario Bites the Dust

Via NoTricksZone: The jet stream is going to be just fine.

PIK alarm story fails the test of science: Jet Stream will also meander as usual in the future

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated by P Gosselin)

Almost one year ago the Potsdam PIK Institute put out a press release, which warned of stalling Jet Stream waves. Due to man-made climate warming weather extremes would remain stuck in a position longer. Among the messengers of the alarm were Stefan Rahmstorf and hockey stick fabricator Michael E. Mann.

Next on February 20, 2018 the horror scenario suffered a setback at the University of Missouri. Using model simulations it was determined that the Jet Stream would also meander in the future as well. Climate alarm shut off once more. This is not the first time that Rahmstorf’s extreme claims have been dispelled in short order by his colleagues. See here, here, here, here, and here.

The University of Missouri press release follows:

Weather should remain predictable despite climate change
Simulations of jet stream behavior in a warming climate suggest ranges of forecasts in the mid-century will be similar to those in present day.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, temperatures are expected to rise between 2.5 and 10 degrees Fahrenheit over the next century. This warming is expected to contribute to rising sea levels and the melting of glaciers and permafrost, as well as other climate-related effects. Now, research from the University of Missouri suggests that even as rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere drive the climate toward warmer temperatures, the weather will remain predictable.

“The jet stream changes character every 10 to 12 days, and we use this pattern to predict the weather,” said Anthony Lupo, professor of atmospheric science in MU’s School of Natural Resources, which is located in the College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources. “We were curious about how this would change in a world with higher carbon dioxide levels. We found that in that warmer world, the variability of the jet stream remained the same.”

Lupo and Andrew Jensen, who earned his doctorate at MU, used an existing climate model to simulate jet stream flow in the Northern Hemisphere. The simulation monitored a variable that responds to jet stream flow changes and can indicate global-scale weather instability. Researchers used this variable to determine when the jet stream altered its flow. Since meteorologists can only accurately predict weather within the 10 to 12 days between jet stream flow changes, a shift in this time frame would directly impact weather predictability.

Over the course of a simulated 31 years, their observations indicated the jet stream would change its character about 30 to 35 times per year, a number that is consistent with current jet stream patterns. As the time frame used to predict weather did not change, the researchers concluded that weather would likely remain as predictable in a warmer world as it is today. The results do not address the effects of climate change on the nature or frequency of weather events but instead focus on the range of predictability afforded by the jet stream. In addition, the researchers did not extend the simulation past the mid-century to ensure their data was as accurate as possible. “Climate change will continue to create a lot of ripple effects, but this experiment provides evidence that the range of forecasting will remain the same,” Lupo said.

The study, “The Dynamic Character of Northern Hemisphere Flow Regimes in a Near-Term Climate Change Projection,” was published in Atmosphere. Other researchers involved in the study were Mirseid Akperov of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Igor Mokhov of Lomonosov Moscow State University and Fengpeng Sun of the University of Missouri-Kansas City.”

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58 thoughts on “Another Manntastic Climate Horror Scenario Bites the Dust

    • /THATWASSARCASTIC

      Bah…SO much more fun when discovery happens (if it does) naturlich…

      • Sincerely? I’m extremely glad you feel that way. That’s how I was hoping people would react when I first adopted my tag-free policy. Only a minority seem to show anger and resentment before and after the penny drops.

      • Now that I’ve proved you can’t please any of the people any of the time, best to return to the already tried and true first fruits of your labor, no?

      • Thanks to global climate alarmism, sarcasm will be dead in fifty years. Due to the increasing occurrence and severity of extreme sincere beliefs, our children will grow up in a terrible world without smart alec retorts.

      • Pop,

        you mean by studying something like this thread, where Gail initially thought I was dead-serious, then figured out I was kidding, then figured out that I was actually being dead-serious, then figured out that I really was just kidding?

        My favourite response is the kind that starts out “Hahaha! Great satire! You can’t be serious ! That’s classic comedy!” then proceeds to spend two pages “rebutting” my joke, and finishes with the truly bizarre claim that “I don’t know whether you’re just parodying a warmist, but whether or not you’re just kidding, you’re a truly sick individual and we will fight your pseudoscientific, leftist assaults on our rights to the death, buddy! I’m a 6’4″ former navy SEAL and I invite you to spout that stuff to my face!”

  1. The temperature is expected to rise between 2.5 and 10 degrees Fahrenheit? A bit of a range there? And probably even overstated on the low end.

    • Short answer, Yes! Like the old saw of throwing shite against the wall to see what sticks. If they create enough media ground clutter, then the masses won’t be able to distinguish truth from fiction but they will be “pretty sure” the planet is warming catastrophically and that it is all their fault for using fossil fuel. Because everywhere they turn they hear another story about it.

      • Bill

        that’s a perceptive comment about mass belief.

        From the POV of the muggle the ‘logic’ goes like this, I suspect: “Even if most of the scientists are lying, which they probably are, the remaining 10% are enough to persuade me that the planet is in a world of pain.”

        Is there a name for the fallacy at work in rhetoric like “maybe some of them are wrong—but the chances that they’re ALL wrong? Infinitesimal!”

        The logical person, of course, would answer: “well, if they’re all flinging the same excrement, then obviously they’re ALL wrong.”

        Alas, he or she represents a dying breed.

      • +1 Bill
        “create enough media ground clutter” describes it so well, by inference they are not “throwing shite” but we are all walking in it. So much so one needs to put on our Wellington boots as we get out of bed every morning.

      • The common denominator in this confusion and deception for/of the masses is the media. People believe what they get from media instead of seeking to inform themselves. Actually most don’t know how. Where should they go if they do take some initiative to inform themselves? Chances are they will just get the summary version of the Summary For Policy Makers, anyway. This is where the education system has truly failed. Most educated people have not been taught to continue to learn and think through things themselves. So climate science is full of all kinds of false prophets cloaked in the robes of academic orthodoxy.

      • In addition, if they shotgun out enough contrary predictions, then they can pick through them later to say, “See? I predicted this!”, while quietly sweeping the rest of their predictions under the rug.

    • Ignorance is having no knowledge or having a shortage of knowledge. Delusional is having knowledge that is not really true. Go figure.

      • thomasjk

        Vain imaginings can be a substitute in your sentence:

        “Delusion is having vain imaginings that are not really true.”

        No stripe of knowledge involved at all.

  2. How many more Windmills and Solar Panels are required to stop Global Warming?
    What happened to the idea of erecting a shield to block the Sun’s ray’s? – that seemed like a great idea to stop Global Warming; does Schumer, Obama, Hillary and Pelosi still support it?

    • …and both models are batting zero

      People actually fall for this….never made one prediction right….

  3. I’m sure it is not due to a lack of trying, but weather is pretty much what you get.
    Whether the forecasters get it right??. Whelp, we all understand it’s hard to predict the future.

  4. MU has apparently bought in to the whole CO2 “warming” meme, talking about it as if it were settled science. Of course, that is the school that’s run by BLM.

    • “Of course, that is the school that’s run by BLM”

      And, the response has been surprisingly fast:

      “According to numbers released by the university, the school anticipates 4,009 freshman students to enroll for Fall 2017. A report from Mizzou stated 4,772 first-time college students enrolled for 2016, a number of 6,191 in 2015 and 6,515 in 2014.

      Those numbers translate to nearly 2,506 fewer first-time enrollments combined in the last three years, a 38.5 percent decrease overall in first-time enrollees.”

      http://krcgtv.com/news/local/mizzou-announces-freshman-enrollment-numbers-31-drop-from-2016

  5. “As the time frame used to predict weather did not change, the researchers concluded that weather would likely remain as predictable in a warmer world as it is today.”

    Here in northern Ohio, The average window for accurate predictions seems to be about 3 days, but it can reach as much as 5 days in a good week, so saying that the “weather would likely remain as predictable in a warmer world as it is today” is really not saying very much. Of course the IPCC doesn’t really have to worry about any of this as they don’t make predictions, they make projections.

  6. Warmer? I still have snow in my front yard, it’s cold enough to snow if a swoosh of moisture-laden air goes galloping through my AO, and I still have the furnace running.

    Granted, taking advantage of the southern exposure to collect solar heat during the day does cut back on the burden on the blower motor, but still – warmer? On what planet? Venus?

    I’ve been through a number of heat waves in the summer that would throw some of these people into a tizzy. I think more and more that they need to get some serious professional help with their psychobabble fantasies.

    However, as long as they do not show up on my front steps offering me salvation and a canned ham, I view this entire business as a short part of a long-term cycle and we have no control over it, period.

    I won’t give them any money, either. I need it for the Renaissance Faire this summer.

    • According to AGW your furnace causes Global Warming which causes cold weather. And it’s settled. So there!

    • @SaraWarmer?
      “I still have snow in my front yard, it’s cold enough to snow if a swoosh of moisture-laden air goes galloping through my AO, and I still have the furnace running”
      Is that a surprise in March?
      For me this winter has had temps as cold as the worst I can recall from the early 70s lasting for days. AND there have been 1/2 a dozen stretches of several days well above zero with the all-time highs for 1 day in Jan and 3 in Feb broken by a slight margin. And the snow, of which we got what would be considered a normal amount for the 70s including a couple inches on Xmas Eve, has disappeared several times

  7. I find that the weather predictions are very good 24 hours out, fairly good 48 hours out, down to below 50% accuracy at 72 hours. When we get to 5-7 days, the predicted weather is so unlikely to occur that I find I do better expecting the opposite of what they say it will be.
    To put it another way, the weather that has the least liklihood of occurring is what they are most likely to predict. This is actually a byproduct of something that I detect in their process. They appear to extend the present weather forward by trending toward the mean for the time of year. If this is true-and I believe it is- it is a fudge, plain and simple, and in no way a forecast.
    Climate projections work the same only reversed, adulterated and made up whole to facilitate doom-saying and more funding. There is no truth whatsoever in climate projections. Notably, they NEVER provide forecasts for the short term of say 5-10 years because they hope desperately to be safely retired or otherwise safe from any accountability for their idiotic fabrications.

  8. “Over the course of a simulated 31 years, their observations indicated the jet stream would change its character about 30 to 35 times per year, a number that is consistent with current jet stream patterns.”

    It is still just a simulation. To be consistent we skeptics must address these types of models in the same manner in which we address the alarmist models

    Regards

    M

  9. Apropos of nothing, “Griff” couldn’t catch the heavy favorite in todays 4th race at Gulfstream.
    It paid $3.60 to place.

    • I miss the little troll.

      Dumb as a brick and gullible, too. Probably eaten by one of the last polar bears on earth.

    • Griff eaten by a polar bear?

      Uh, NOOO!

      Any self-respecting polar bear would consider that offer and walk away, growling ‘Eeeeeewwwwww!’

      • You guys are being unfair. Polar bears can’t read and you know that. They would find each of us homogeneously delicious, without adjustment.

  10. We are cow people. Using intense management of cattle we have raised soil organic matter .8% per year the last 4 years. Folks in agriculture “can” with the right stimuli easily and quickly lower atmospheric CO2 levels. CO2 has very little if any affect on global temperature change. We in agriculture with 10,000 years of bad farming and grazing practices have interfered with the water cycle in a big way. The water cycle is the earths cooling system. The water cycle can be repaired only by an enormous increase in plant cover. CO2 is the most economical and available plant growth stimulant. All plant DIE at 150ppm or less of CO2, plants die we die. We are at 410ppm, we need lots more, 1500 to 2000ppm CO2. If this interest you go to grazingwisdom.com home page scroll down to diving deeper read A Watchman article supporting references are at the end.

    • When we say “…we have raised soil organic matter .8% per year the last 4 years….” are we talking animal poo?

    • “We in agriculture with 10,000 years of bad farming and grazing practices have interfered with the water cycle in a big way. ”
      ———————-
      Greenies talking point nonsense!

    • The good thing is that many alarmists see the importance of proper land-use, agriculture and consumption. If they went further up that road they probably would cast off the CO2-stupidity.
      Why don’t the anti-capitalist CO2-demonizers calculate openly how much CO2-emission could be averted, if every thing and gadget were twice ore thrice as durable as today.

  11. Well, I don’t know about you guys, but this comes as a huge relief. I’ve been holding my breath for 10 years, waiting for the end of the world.

    /sarc

    On another topic, when do the ever-increasing accumulation of dents to the “settled science” mantra begin to tarnish the 97% AGW story?

  12. So, prophesised end of the whirled ‘climate-change’ is indistinguishable from prosaic natural weather cycles?

    This is a very subtle sort or calamity.

    • prophesied, and yes, so subtle it can’t be detected except by members of the trougherati and their high priests. What they get high on, I’m not sure, but I have theories that account for their bizarre and ludicrous prognostications.*

      * Yes, it’s okay to do that in public, now. O tempura, o morays, o the huge manatee.

  13. “Using model simulations it was determined that the Jet Stream would also meander in the future as well”

    Putting your faith in climate models now are you?

    Come on, be consistent.

    • Yeah, it looks like a duelling-models cage-match. Let’s just crash some Tonka trucks into each other and see what happens.

    • Not all models suffer from the same calamiticious flaws. These particular models are the elder gods of the climate world, the carbon-free General Circulation Models.

  14. The rise in CO2 is responding to the warm period as it should. We are in an optimal period, which is defined by net oceanic evaporation (even as sea levels rise) which results in the greening of the Earth which results in more abundant seasonal decay which results in more CO2. This will not reverse itself till the condition changes to less oceanic evaporation.

  15. When I was doing postgraduate stunies at the Laboratory of Tree-Ring research at the University of Arizona in Tucson back in the early seventies, I was able to determine, using a series of 500 mb charts developed by the Soviet climatologist Dzeerdzievskiy and tree ring data to extend the study, that their were two main patterns in the polar jet stream, zonal, in which the stream and its embedded storm systems generally followed the parallels of latitude, giving fair regularity to the weather, and meridional, in which the stream was thrown into deep Rossby waves that coursed generally north-south, parallel with the Meridians of longitude, which resulted in a much less predictable weather behavior because the Rossby waves and their embedded cyclones would tend to hang up on coastlines and north-south mountain ranges until they managed to break loose and move eastward. The interesting thing that I found out in the study was that meridional flow prevailed until about 1909, and then it suddenly switched to zonal, giving rather predictable weather patterns to North America. This went on until about 1965, when the flow pattern again reverted to meridional. This was about the same time that anthropogenic CFCs began to be introduced into Earth’s atmosphere, and the intense global warming period of 1975 to 1998 began about ten years later, as the CFCs built up, their chlorine content being released by solar photodissociation on polar stratospheric clouds in early spring. This, of course, thinned the ozone layer, allowing more UV-B radiation to reach Earth’s surface and cause global warming.

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