Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Fifteen years of satellite measurements have unexpectedly shown that parts of Greenland are getting colder. But the scientists who produced these results urge people to believe that this cooling trend is a blip, because climate models say Greenland should be warming.
Greenland’s recent temperature drop does not disprove global warming
January 29, 2018 – 09:55
Unfortunately, the planet is still getting warmer.
By: Charlotte Price Persson
Using satellite data, a group of scientists has studied the development of temperature over the past 15 years in a large part of Greenland.
More precisely, they looked at surface temperatures (the temperature close to the Earth’s surface) in a part of the country that is not covered by ice—around one fifth of the surface area of Greenland.
Intuitively, you may think that temperature throughout all of Greenland has been increasing, but that is not the case. When you look at the yearly average, the ice-free parts of Greenland show a slight drop in temperature between 2001 and 2015. With swings in temperature from year to year.
However, these results should not be interpreted as “proof” that the Earth is not warming, say the scientists behind the research, which is published in the journal Scientific Reports.
This is weather, not climate
You need to have thirty years’ worth of data before you can “talk about climate,” says Professor Bo Elberling, an environmental geochemist and senior scientist on the study.
So we should be wary of discussing these results in the context of climate change, says Elberling, who is head of the Center for Permafrost (CENPERM) at the Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management at the University of Copenhagen, Denmark.
“What’s interesting here is that with these new data we have a unique description of the spatial distribution of surface temperatures across the entire ice-free part of Greenland, which we couldn’t pull out of the approximately 45 weather stations that cover Greenland today,” he says.
Read More: What makes the climate change?
Global warming is real
Professor Michael Tjernström, a meteorologist from Stockholm University, Sweden, agrees with this assessment.
The time series is too short to say anything about climate trends, he writes in an email to our sister site, Videnskab.dk.
“Give me a specific location and a short time series and you could get almost any trend. Over a large area and over longer time I’m sure Greenland is warming,” writes Tjernström, who was not involved in the study.
The results should be seen as a part of the natural swings in climate. While you might find a small drop in temperature at individual locations, the overall development is in one direction, he writes.
All scientists interviewed for this article agreed that the new study does not question the inescapable reality that the planet is getting warmer.
…
Read more: http://sciencenordic.com/greenland’s-recent-temperature-drop-does-not-disprove-global-warming
The abstract of the study;
Contrasting temperature trends across the ice-free part of Greenland
Andreas Westergaard-Nielsen, Mojtaba Karami, Birger Ulf Hansen, Sebastian Westermann & Bo Elberling
Temperature changes in the Arctic have notable impacts on ecosystem structure and functioning, on soil carbon dynamics, and on the stability of permafrost, thus affecting ecosystem functions and putting man-built infrastructure at risk. Future warming in the Arctic could accelerate important feedbacks in permafrost degradation processes. Therefore it is important to map vulnerable areas most likely to be impacted by temperature changes and at higher risk of degradation, particularly near communities, to assist adaptation to climate change. Currently, these areas are poorly assessed, especially in Greenland. Here we quantify trends in satellite-derived land surface temperatures and modelled air temperatures, validated against observations, across the entire ice-free Greenland. Focus is on the past 30 years, to characterize significant changes and potentially vulnerable regions at a 1 km resolution. We show that recent temperature trends in Greenland vary significantly between seasons and regions and that data with resolutions down to single km2 are critical to map temperature changes for guidance of further local studies and decision-making. Only a fraction of the ice-free Greenland seems vulnerable due to warming when analyzing year 2001–2015, but the most pronounced changes are found in the most populated parts of Greenland. As Greenland represents important gradients of north/south coast/inland/distance to large ice sheets, the conclusions are also relevant in an upscaling to greater Arctic areas.
Read more: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-19992-w
Why do the scientists who published this data seem so skittish?
One reason may be that this study potentially undermines confidence in the methodology of the NASA GISS temperature series, one of the world’s major global temperature resources.
From the NASA website;
… Handling the Arctic
There are several reasons for the small discrepancies that exist between the three records. Most important, subtleties in the way the scientists from each institution handle regions of the world where temperature-monitoring stations are scarce produce differences.
While developed areas have a dense network of weather stations, temperature monitoring equipment is sparse in some parts of the Amazon, Africa, Antarctica, and Arctic. In the Arctic, particularly, the absence of solid land means there are large areas without weather stations.
The Met Office and the NCDC leave areas of the Arctic Ocean without stations out of their analyses, while GISS approaches the problem by filling in the gaps with data from the nearest land stations, up to a distance of 1200 kilometers (746 miles) away. In this way, the GISS analysis achieves near total coverage in the Arctic.
Both approaches pose problems. By not inferring data, the Met Office assumes that areas without stations have a warming equal to that experienced by the entire Northern Hemisphere, a value that satellite and field measurements suggest is too low given the rate of Arctic sea ice loss.
On the other hand, GISS’s approach may either overestimate or underestimate Arctic warming. “There’s no doubt that estimates of Arctic warming are uncertain, and should be regarded with caution,” Hansen said. “Still, the rapid pace of Arctic ice retreat leaves little question that temperatures in the region are rising fast, perhaps faster than we assume in our analysis.” …
Read more: https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20110113/
Infilling attempts to correct for absent temperature data in sparse regions like the Arctic. But this latest study has demonstrated … recent temperature trends in Greenland vary significantly between seasons and regions and that data with resolutions down to single km2 are critical to map temperature changes …. The NASA technique of using a single temperature station to represent up to 1200 kilometres of Arctic wilderness, then using climate models to help fill in the blanks, may be a lot less reliable than previously thought.
The world has warmed since the 1850s. But if parts of the Arctic have been cooling, when climate scientists assumed those regions were warming, the real warming trend might be less than some analysis suggest.
Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!
Exactly. If this is a blip (or a little dog) then just make a few adjustments after-the-fact and everything will stay under control. Nobody lives in frickin’ Greenland anyway.
(And, my sympathy for those living in Oz.)
“Only a fraction of the ice-free Greenland seems vulnerable due to warming when analyzing year 2001–2015, but the most pronounced changes are found in the most populated parts of Greenland.”
no shit sherlock, uhi at work.
bit chilly
The most populated parts of Greenland are cooling – it hints that it might be warming, but that implication permitted the reader is incorrect.
“Keep Believing in Global Warming” reminded me of another scene from the Wizard of Oz:
The Cowardly Lion: I Do Believe In Spooks!
https://youtu.be/4sKzPBu2M8A
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kriging
Apart from 2010 which was a very warm year very probably caused by the strong El Nino of that year, Greenland temperatures are today no warmer than they were in the late 1930s/early 1940s.
In fact, when one looks at unadjusted temperatures, the temperature in Greenland have been falling for more than 30 years. The same is so in Iceland. See for example:
AND:
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/stdata_show.cgi?id=431042500000&dt=1&ds=7
Look at the fall in temperatures (unadjusted) from 1930s to 1998, where folowing the Super El Nino of 1997/98 there has been some recovery (with 2010 being exceptionaly warm).
See unadjusted temperatures in Iceland that also show the late 1930s/early 1940s as the warmest period. For example:
Yes, yes, where it said:
“the ice-free parts of Greenland show a slight drop in temperature between 2001 and 2015. With swings in temperature from year to year.
However, these results should not be interpreted as “proof” that the Earth is not warming,”
It should have read: IS “proof” that the Earth is not warming.
There’s a name for someone who sees something work in practise, but refuses to believe it because it shouldn’t work in theory.
It sure wasn’t “scientist” in the good old days…
BTW, I’ll have to remember “You need to have thirty years’ worth of data before you can “talk about climate” next hurricane season. Or tornado season. Or flood season. Or. Or . Or…
Agreed x1,000. Every time some idiot mouthpiece starts talking about how “hurricane {fill in the blank} was made worse by climate change, they need to be b!tch slapped with “show us 30 years of worsening hurricanes, or STFU.”
How dare Greenland not follow the script of the AGW scam.
I agree that 30 years is just a blip. Now will somebody please relay that information to the scaremongers who blame every 30 minute change in the weather on climate change.
It is not just Greenland, Iceland is the same. See for example the unadjusted temperatures:
And:
Just think of the savings available. Close down all those regional weather stations they can be 2,400km (1,500miles) apart. That means less than 10 sites and you have the entire USA covered. GISS shows it is easy to ‘accurately’ provide the the temperature in Orlando by using observations in Washington DC.
Strange that it is these estimated stations that seem to have all the warming, must be coincidence.
It is 1378 miles from Miami, FL to Chicago, IL by road.
It is 1387 miles from Orlando, Florida to Portland, Maine by road.
It is only 844 miles from Orlando to Washington D.C. by road.
So the climate is the same in Chicago as in Miami. ROFLMAO
Instead of guessing what the temperature is over 1200 km, why can’t they use the radiosonde balloon technique in reverse and drop temperature sensors from aircraft passing over these areas which could provide some checking as to whether their guesses are in agreement with actual temperatures. Or don’t they want their figures checked?
Would they get the results that they wanted by that method?
They won’t ever do that, because figures don’t lie – but liars figure.
The beauty of the GISS approach is that all their stations are on land and they extend them out over the Arctic Ocean.
Now anybody with even the slightest practical experience of the Arctic knows that the climate on land and at sea are completely different. In summer weather at sea is much colder and foggier than land, in winter it is moderately milder.
Not just the arctic, those who leave near large bodies of water know that climate onshore and climate offshore are two entirely different beasties.
And, of course, The Warming shows up on the faked maps most consistently in the Arctic where they have almost no real data.
I also suspect – but do not know – that most if not all of these Arctic weather stations are impacted by buidlings, etc.
Yes, funny how that works. The “overheated” parts of the Earth always seem to be the ones requiring that temperatures be “inferred” from data collected at UHI polluted sites hundreds of miles away.
40 years ago these results would have “proven” Global cooling.
Looks like they may have been right then, as the Sun diminishing output seems to be agreeing!
“Infilling attempts to correct for absent temperature data in sparse regions like the Arctic. But this latest study has demonstrated … recent temperature trends in Greenland vary significantly between seasons and regions and that data with resolutions down to single km2 are critical to map temperature changes …. “
No, this paper does even more derivation and infilling. They are telling you the temperature where there are no thermometers. From the abstract:
“Here we quantify trends in satellite-derived land surface temperatures and modelled air temperatures, validated against observations, across the entire ice-free Greenland. “
Just a taste of what they do:
“The trends are filtered to include values between the 5th and 95th percentiles only, with a statistical significance (p-value, Mann-Kendall test) lower than 0.05. Areas with statistically significant temperature trends are filtered with a moving 20 × 20 pixels window, in which only areas with more than 80 significant pixels within the window are accepted as having a temperature change (corresponding to 20% of the analyzed window area).”
“Recently, a method to use LST to assess ground temperatures in a larger North Atlantic region was presented, but scarcely validated for sub-regions such as Greenland13. Here we use a gap-filled version of MOD11A1 (following20), due to otherwise missing data in cloudy conditions that can cause a significant cold bias21.”
Satellites tell us how sea level changes where there are no tidal gauges. Do you believe satellite sea level measurements more than satellite surface temperature measurements?
“Do you believe satellite sea level measurements more than satellite surface temperature measurements?”
Yes. Sea level is measured by altimetry, basically geometry. Satellite surface measurements involves a lot of modelling and assumptions, especially about the nature of the surface. Plus clouds.
[Edited to correct formatting for clarity. -mod]
Yes. Sea level is measured by altimetry, basically geometry…..gravity, temperature, degradation, magnetic field, and rotation
“Edited…mod”
Thanks.
“Sea level is measured by altimetry, basically geometry…..gravity, temperature, degradation, magnetic field, and rotation”
Sea level is measured by altimetry. The other issues relate to its interpretation, not measurement.
so….even with all those caveats….more than temp measurements….you believe the sea level measurements more?
Yes. As I said, what you listed are not caveats on the measurement.
“Yes. As I said, what you listed are not caveats on the measurement.”
Of couse they are and you know better….
“Of couse they are and you know better”
Nope. From Wiki:
“Satellites such as Seasat and TOPEX/Poseidon use advanced dual-band radar altimeters to measure the height of the Earth’s surface (sea, ice, and terrestrial surfaces) from a spacecraft.”
It’s just counting wavelengths (and knowing where the satellite is). The rest is trying to figure what it means for the mass and volume of water. But that doesn’t affect the actual altimetry.
“Sea level is measured “….measured….you can’t figure out the measurement without knowing what it means
@Nick – yes, sea level is measured by altimetry – specifically, dual-band radars. Electromagnetic waves.
Temperature is measured by infrared and microwave emissions. Electromagnetic waves.
Both are “adjusted” by reference to known factors that make those measurements not the same as measurements taken directly on site.
Your argument that one measurement of electromagnetic waves is invalid, while the other is perfectly valid, is disingenuous at best. The base data is equally valid (I am assuming no fiddling with the instruments themselves, of which I have seen no evidence on either side of the debate, at least here and in Europe – Australia is a different matter).
Present reasoned arguments about the methods used to turn data into information – I know you are capable, you have shown yourself to be so in the past – and you will cease to be lumped in with Griff in my mind. Until then…
“Your argument that one measurement of electromagnetic waves…”
Altimetry is straightforward. You send down a wave, pick up the reflection, and figure out the elapsed time. The main issue then is whether the medium varies the speed of sound. You need some proper way of averaging to allow for unevenness of surface (eg waves). Radar is well established technology.
Temperature is not simply related to electromagnetic waves received. If you measure surface IR emission directly, you have to infer by identifying a peak in the spectrum, or some other parameter of the profile. But the surface is not at anything like uniform temperature locally. On land there are sandy parts, vegetated parts, wet parts etc. Moisture and vegetation vary in time. Also, of course, different emissivities, which you don’t actually know. It’s a very messy inverse problem.
WO,
“Your argument that one measurement of electromagnetic waves…”
Altimetry is straightforward. You send down a wave, pick up the reflection, and figure out the elapsed time. The main issue then is whether the medium varies the speed of sound. You need some proper way of averaging to allow for unevenness of surface (eg waves). Radar is well established technology.
Temperature is not simply related to electromagnetic waves received. If you measure surface IR emission directly, you have to infer by identifying a peak in the spectrum, or some other parameter of the profile. But the surface is not at anything like uniform temperature locally. On land there are sandy parts, vegetated parts, wet parts etc. Moisture and vegetation vary in time. Also, of course, different emissivities, which you don’t actually know. It’s a very messy inverse problem.
I don’t see how satellites really could measure sea depth to any accuracy which is then often modelled in to get the worserer sea level increases.
But really, I find these results so relieving. Despite some willingness to witness for GHE ie. global warming aka AGW known as climate change, climate distruption and climate cancer, the researchers did not find the trend they expected. Thus, more advanced statistical methods are needed to squeeze out the underlying trend we know based on an emsemble of models. This means more funding is needed and the work can continue.
The satellites give you data with altimeters…….not a measurement
….you don’t get a measurement until you apply all those other things
Nick, I don’t believe that the sea surface is flat.
stokes,
Once again, don’t you have anything better to do with your time? This site must be your career now, sad I call it…
Because, of course, it couldn’t be cooling.
Yes using weather data gathered at an airport to cover a much wider ares nothing like an airport is a ‘great idea ‘
or in others , we had to make it up because we did not have the data and by ‘lucky chance ‘ when we made it up it support out ideas .
You didn’t emphasize a key-portion of your quote…I wonder why…
“Here we quantify trends in satellite-derived land surface temperatures and modelled air temperatures, VALIDATED AGAINST OBSERVATIONS, across the entire ice-free Greenland. “
Nick doesn’t want us to think satellite temperature measurements are accurate at the surface. If he were to admit that, then he would have to admit that all the land surface temperature charts of NASA and NOAA are invalid and inaccurate.
I think Nick just disagrees. But it is true that measuring the polar regions is a huge challenge. Satellite or not.
“measuring the polar regions is a huge challenge” AND perfectly useless. I mean: who cares?
Data for Earth except Polar region would be just as fine, and even more, actually
Measuring Sea level has HUGE error Bars
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q65O3qA0-n4 (sea Level)
and Gravity variation effects, well your error bars are even larger
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2V68rFyutg GRACE
It looks like there is going to be a lot of weather over Greenland over the next few years, but very little Climate.
Heh, +1.
On the other hand, if that “trend” were to become “warming” instead of “cooling,” it would magically transform from “weather” to “climate” faster than you can say “Rumpelstiltskin,” 30-year “standard” be damned.
Fifteen years of data indicate a slight cooling trend (with some annual variation) But it takes 30 years to denote an actual trend…
This is because it takes 15 years to realize their mantra isn’t being followed by nature and an additional 15 years to slowly adjust the data so the it appears that Nature is following suit
Also because 30 years is the length of a career, so this means no one will ever be held accountable.
Love the bright red Dash 7s on the tarmac.
At least we now two clear, scientific definitions for this whole subject: when it gets colder its weather and climate change when it gets hotter.
That’s confirmation bias in action. We know that the climate is warming, so all cooling has to be weather.
Ice melts largely because of water temperature. Air temperature is a bit player.
Surely these self declared experts on the arctic knew that already.
Any idiot knows that an instrument measures only its immediate environment. An instrument 10m away measures its own immediate environment. Therefore, everything else is in-filled and modelled.
Therefore we need only one thermometer to measure the average temperature of the globe
-Mosher
Learn something every day. “-Mosher” is the new /sarc tag, apparently.
I think that I shall need to abbreviate to “mosher,” though, on particularly sarcastic days. The pinkies seem to be the first to succumb to severe arthritis.
Cooling Arctic is Killing Caribou
https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2018/01/30/cooling-arctic-is-killing-caribou/
The polar bears are next – but they’ll blame the “reduction in bear populations” on human-induced warming anyway, or come up with some tail-chasing argument about how global warming caused Arctic cooling. Whatever the meme, guaranteed it’ll be OUR fault.
We should just pick one thermometer somewhere on the globe and use it to Infill the entire 4pi steradians.
It would save a hell of a lot of money and mean about as much scientifically as the crap that NOAA and GISS spews out from their Bias Machine.
No need for a thermometer, just use tea leaves.
Alarmists claim the Earth has fever due to 1 extra CO2 molecule per 10,000 molecules.
Moms everywhere just put their hand on their kid’s forehead to see if they have a fever. So use 1 point sampling for the entire body. Saves a doctors visit when the kid is fibbing. Similarly, the Alarmists do a lot of fibbing.
I drilled a hole in the local lake this morning. Sat there all day with nary a bite. But I’m sure the fish are biting! They are really struggling with the mantra of being honest versus being on the team.
Hope you plugged the hole up when you were done. Wouldn’t want all the water to leak out.
The old ‘cooling is weather but warming is climate’ trick, yet again.
If it’s been warming faster and it’s now cooling perhaps it is a leading indication of a global cooling trend.
NASA – What’s causing the poles to warm faster than the rest of Earth?
https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/warmingpoles.html
Apr 6, 2011 – Decades of NASA data show the Earth is warming. According to NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in Manhattan, the Earth has warmed about 1.44 degrees Fahrenheit during the last 40 years. But the poles are warming even faster; the Arctic has warmed by more than 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit …
That is a most deceptive way of stating the difference in warming as related to latitude. Why don’t they include the fact that the tropics refuse to warm? It’s all just spun to look scary.
The poles are Earth’s radiators. The tropics are the collectors. Heat transported through the oceans via ocean currents concentrates at the poles for release to the cold of space during polar winters before the ice forms. Less ice mean more heat is being vented, like the shutters set to open on a radiator. More sea ice slows heat loss when the Earth is cold. A self-regulating system with negative feedback. The climateers understand this, but they lie anyway for money and to not be cast out of the cult.
Plus, the Hadley cell circulation sends heat pole-ward in the troposphere.
So, if I understand this, the Arctic is venting heat whenever ice cover is scarce or compacted, as now.
Conversely, during periods of high extent and/or area, the planet is conserving heat and poised to warm.
That does seem to match the historical accounts, is there any published research on this?
More sea ice slows heat loss when the Earth is cold. A self-regulating system with negative feedback.
What about if the shutters are open during summer? Less ice means positive feedback?
Joel, SH ocean currents are markedly different from those in the NH (e.g. the circumpolar current), and the south pole is a continent as opposed to an ocean. Is the Arctic a bigger or smaller radiator than Antarctica in your view?
Zazove, that does not matter because the water releases large amounts of heat to the atmosphere only during the winter, when the air temp is well below freezing and the water is in the process of doing so. The water remains near freezing all summer as summer temperatures in the Arctic have been at or below normal despite winter “heat waves” of near 0F.
The polar ocean is not heated by the polar atmosphere, the polar air temps (and pressures) are the result of the global oceanic paradigm. See Joe Bastardi for more on that – Weatherbell.com
There is quite a bit of heat advected into Artic via the atmosphere as well as oceanic. Also, if the shutters are open in summer that reduces global albedo and more open water means more wave-action mixing up of warmer water from below. There are feedbacks in both directions and maybe they are net zero, but they are being overwhelmed by heat from elsewhere at the moment.
Btw because Antarctica is so much colder it radiates less.
So the case that Arctic warming is been over stated is looking stronger. ?
lf that is the case then it would help to explain why the NH snow extent has been tracking sidewards since the early 90’s. Also of more interest to me at least, it would explain why l have seen very little change in the trend of my 40 year recording of the first winters snow. Here in England in the early winter season its the Arctic where we get our cold air from rather then Russia. So by rights a warming Arctic should have caused a under laying delay in the timing of the first snow over the last 40 years. Which as l have posted before this has not been the case. A further note is that here in the UK the average means temps have been going sidewards since 2005.
Whether this is true or not it makes no practical difference.
The fact that Greenland has had a temperature drop lasting half a generation shows with certainty that climate change is not significant for policy making.
The weather overwhelms climate change over the time that infrastructure is replaced. Therefore adaptation to weather is always necessary.
Therefore adaptation is always necessary.
Therefore other approaches to climate change are redundant.
Game over for newsworthy climate change.
M Courtney
How about this: It is often said that some or other heat wave affecting a locale is caused by AGWarming. Well, if that can be held true, so can its opposite. The efforts to ‘do something’ like put up solar panels and offset warming, are working! It is just that the effect of these measures is regional and locale-specific in its influence!
All the reductions in coal burning in the USA are manifesting as lowered temperatures in the populated areas of Greenland. It is really quite simple. No one expects the cooling effect of renewable energy policies to appear evenly all over the world. Global warming is just like global cooling – it happens in patches.
There is a lot of mileage to be had with this interpretation. Anytime it is cooling, that is proof of the effectiveness of the policies offsetting GHG emissions. Anytime it is warming, that is the patch caused by GHG emissions making things worse.
And you thought there was no theory of everything!
+1 Courney
The time series is too short to say anything about climate trends, he writes in an email to our sister site, until it has been ‘adjusted’ to the right results at which time it will be more than long enough to ‘prove ‘ climate doom.
By the way the ’30 year ‘ claim has not actual validity , its a number pluck from thin air designed to deal with the issues of realty failing to support the models . Has in this case .
“…….Give me a specific location and a short time series and you could get almost any trend. Over a large area and over longer time I’m sure Greenland is warming…”
There’s the old problem again “…almost any trend…” is ok when it suits your argument and if not well you can always resort to that scientific method called “…I’m sure Greenland is warming..”. I’m convinced (not).
Oh, Greenland is a dreadful place
A land that’s never ever green
Where there’s ice and snow and the whale-fishes blow
And daylight’s seldom seen, brave boys
And daylight’s seldom seen
“Greenland Whale Fisheries” Trad.
Performed by P,P,&M verse at 2:54
Thanks Walter – a big P,P&M fan since forever – but somehow never caught this one! Love it! (Forget about the climate!)
Methinks they doth protest too much.
Nonsense, thirty years is only about half of the smallest ocean cycle detectable and either warms or cools naturally.
James Hansen first raised global warming concerns after just 8 years of warming.
What it shows is the fact that weather rules over a number of years confirms that any AGW only has minor effect and bigger local natural environmental changes are taking place.
Unfortunately, the increasingly adjusted estimated so called data is still getting warmer. The planet might not be warming over recent years with the exception of a recent strong El Nino (2016). Still debatable because there was very little difference between it and the strong El Nino back in 1998. (within error range)
Nothing disproves global warming because it’s not based on science. Global warming recently does not disprove Greenland’s recent temperature drop. Greenland’s recent temperature drop is likely a sign of future trend to come and with a less active sun, the AMO is expected to turn negative soon in future years. Greenland’s recent temperature drop does not disprove this could be a new trend despite any recent warming.
Why do so many people make empty assertions like, “Greenland’s recent temperature drop is likely a sign of future trend to come” as if they knew what they were talking about. They read a few blogs and papers and think they’re an expert, a scientist.
Global warming cannot be disproved because it’s not based on science, your’e right – it’s part of the physical world. I’d rather try to disprove the theory of gravity than disprove gravity itself.
Yet again I am struck dumb in amazement :
What is this ‘gravity itself’ that exists outside of the ‘theory of gravity’?
@ Kristi…the question should be why did these scientists make this assertion “… But the scientists who produced these results urge people to believe that this cooling trend is a blip…”?
“…urge people to believe…” is that a new scientific methodology? I mean where is their proof that this was only a blip? How can they state with so much certainty as to request belief from others, when it appears as if the scientists never considered the opposite position that it may not be a blip?
“…why did these scientists make this assertion…”
Because you don’t get grant money if you don’t kowtow to the global warming religion.
goldminor – You are confusing an allegation of what scientists do with what they actually do. If you want to blame someone for urging people to believe something, blame the media and bloggers.
From a scientific standpoint the “hiatus” is interesting, but it doesn’t detract from the evidence for AGW – in that sense it is a blip. Natural variation, normal and expected.
It seems hard for people to grasp that even if humans have a dominant in increased global temps, that doesn’t mean that there will be no natural variation underlying it.
My gosh!
Kristi, is completely unaware of the miserable Per Decade warming trend predictions/projections from 1990 as published by the IPCC. It has never been close in ANY decade to their guesses.
You are babbling again in ignorance.
Kristi you are probably already aware that anyone who is rude here is not really interested in the substance of your comments…and should be duly ignored.
Passive-aggressive faux politeness is the worst kind of rudeness.
“From a scientific standpoint the “hiatus” is interesting, but it doesn’t detract from the evidence for AGW – in that sense it is a blip. Natural variation, normal and expected.”
But according to AGW theory, the atmosphere’s reaction to more CO2 is instantaneous and it overwhelms natural variation, which was not expected to assert itself more strongly than the CO2-warming effect.
“Why do so many people make empty assertions like, “Greenland’s recent temperature drop is likely a sign of future trend to come” as if they knew what they were talking about. They read a few blogs and papers and think they’re an expert, a scientist.”
The AMO is part of an ocean cycle that is expected to become negative soon. The AMOC plays a key role in this and effects especially the Arctic ocean and Greenland.
The AMOC partly effects the North Atlantic ocean and Greenland first before effecting the Arctic ocean. Signs of Greenland cooling are part of this expected process, but you seem to know better.
Why do people make empty assertions like “Global warming cannot be disproved because it’s not based on science, your’e right – it’s part of the physical world.”?
Pick your period, pick your trend – it doesn’t provide any evidence of causation if you’re trying to intimate that “climate change” (as in, “caused by human fossil fuel burning”) is factual, and there have been much larger swings in climate before there was any “human activity” to blame it on. In short, we’re not witnessing anything beyond the rate OR amount of historical, natural variability. So the burden of proof is on the “believers,” not on those who dispute the empty assertions of the “believers.”
“zazove January 30, 2018 at 10:41 pm Edit
Kristi you are probably already aware that anyone who is rude here is not really interested in the substance of your comments…and should be duly ignored.”
Ha ha,
have you been reading her comments, and her avoidance in defending them when asked questions over what she writes?
People like her eventually get the ridicule for being a terrible debater as her comments are lacking substance and coherence.
Here are samples of a confused mind:
“I’d rather try to disprove the theory of gravity than disprove gravity itself.”
Huh?
“But debating whether the world is warming and whether we have anything to do with it is a waste of time.”
Snicker…..
“One reason may be that this study potentially undermines confidence in the methodology of the NASA GISS temperature series, one of the world’s major global temperature resources.”
GISS was founded in 1970 by Robert Jastrow to support Space Exploration, not to play games with Earths temperature data. This a full 12 years AFTER this report mentioned in her link:
“The documents include a 1957 study, “Radiocarbon Evidence on the Dilution of Atmospheric and Oceanic Carbon by Carbon from Fossil Fuels,” published by scientists working for Humble Oil, a precursor of ExxonMobil.”
and 2 years after this report from her link:
“Inside Climate News reported on the documents today, which also included a 1968 report commissioned by the American Petroleum Institute (API).”
GISS is a terrible source of temperature data. The fault lays at the feet of James Hansen and his predecessor. Dr. Jastrow never intended GISS to work this way.
Shall I go on…..?
Roger Knights: “But according to AGW theory, the atmosphere’s reaction to more CO2 is instantaneous and it overwhelms natural variation, which was not expected to assert itself more strongly than the CO2-warming effect.”
I disagree. The theory of AGW asserts that human effects overlay the natural variation, not overwhelm it. There will still be ups and downs and outliers, but at warmer levels overall. The climate models take natural variation into account, though that doesn’t mean their predictions show the stage in a particular oscillation at a future date – they are not constant enough to do so. It’s always long-term trends the models are interested in, although they may analyze short-term ones in the process of testing.
Matt G: “The AMO is part of an ocean cycle that is expected to become negative soon. The AMOC plays a key role in this and effects especially the Arctic ocean and Greenland.
The AMOC partly effects the North Atlantic ocean and Greenland first before effecting the Arctic ocean. Signs of Greenland cooling are part of this expected process, but you seem to know better.”
You remind me that I should not make broad assumptions about the people here and their level of knowledge. It seems highly variable.
Still, I maintain it is an assumption that the cooling seen in the last 15 years is tied to the AMOC, which it would have to be if it were a sign of things to come. It could be an effect of the Greenland Blocking Index, for example. I don’t know. Some scientists suggest the AMOC will weaken as a result of climate change.
When it comes to climate science, I know more than average, but that’s diddlysquat compared to what there is to know… I see a great deal of oversimplification around here. Sometimes I suspect that denial is partly due to a gut feeling that the climate is far too complex to predict, which is understandable, but just because something seems incredible doesn’t mean it’s impossible.
My main argument is that climate science and scientists have been unfairly maligned, and they deserve a hearing..
GRAVITY – for those who don’t understand my comment, the theory of gravity is a scientific statement, and thus open to debate. Saying that gravity doesn’t exist is another matter. See the difference?
zazove – You remind me I need to monitor my rudeness factor, too! Thank you.
Not to worry, James Hansen will ‘correct’ the blip a few years from now.
He and Carl can do their own version of “Better Late Than Never” in Greenland.
Worrall, the study cites satellite data. Including a picture of a ground based weather station is misleading. Looks like this is one of your “fake posts.”
Me bad, I posted a picture of a poorly sited weather station in Greenland, in a post which discusses satellite vs weather station measurements and global temperature series.
Eric, I don’t come here to look at the posting graphic. I understand that they are sometimes not fully coherent with the posting due to the time lost by looking for something exactly appropriate. I appreciate your efforts, mate. Nit-picking your efforts in a non-constructive manor would be most rude of me.
Thanks Pop 🙂
FIRST I DIRECT YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS!
https://www.ucsusa.org/press/2016/new-evidence-reveals-fossil-fuel-industry-funded-cutting-edge-climate-science-research#.WnDnh66nGig
Archives have been released showing that the petroleum industry was way ahead of the game in research into CO2 and warming, suggesting it could become a problem back in the 1960s.
(The USC also has documentation about petroleum’s propaganda machine that has for decades been bent on ruining the credibility, reputation and the public’s trust in the scientific community.)
And the article…
I love it when climate scientists admit to climate surprises. Instead of acknowledging that they do, in fact, have integrity, the “skeptic” community jumps on the story as if it proved weakness in their enemy’s armor without having any idea if that’s true; usually not..
A quote of a quote within the article:
“‘ ‘Therefore it is important to map vulnerable areas most likely to be impacted by temperature changes and at higher risk of degradation, particularly near communities, to assist adaptation to climate change. ….data with resolutions down to single km2 are critical to map temperature changes for guidance of further local studies and decision-making.’ ”
But the quote is summarized and misused: ” ‘ … recent temperature trends in Greenland vary significantly between seasons and regions and that data with resolutions down to single km2 are critical to map temperature changes’ …. The NASA technique of using a single temperature station to represent up to 1200 kilometres of Arctic wilderness, then using climate models to help fill in the blanks, may be a lot less reliable than previously thought.” Mere speculation.
The worst part is that the way the quote is taken out of context is highly misleading and dishonest. The abstract is about producing a map to help focus efforts in monitoring ecosystem change and community adaptation, and suggests this map should be at the resolution of single kms. It says nothing and suggests nothing about the scale of temperature monitoring for climate models.
“Why do the scientists who published this data seem so skittish?
One reason may be that this study potentially undermines confidence in the methodology of the NASA GISS temperature series, one of the world’s major global temperature resources.”
This is irresponsible and wrong, simple propaganda.
Scientists may seem skittish these days because they know any little odd finding will be blown out of proportion and/or used as false evidence, just as Worrall’s article does. Duh! How would you like it if you worked your butt off for decades to provide information for public benefit and instead millions of people were convinced you were corrupt, sloppy and/or stupid?
“…How would you like it if you worked your butt off for decades to provide information for public benefit and instead millions of people were convinced you were corrupt, sloppy and/or stupid?…”
I’d go out-of-my-way to prove those millions of people wrong through transparency instead of fighting every FOIA request and claiming everyone who didn’t buy my claims hook, line, and sinker to be “corrupted, sloppy, and/or stupid.” Or worse.
I’d go out-of-my-way to prove those millions of people wrong through transparency instead of fighting every FOIA request and claiming everyone who didn’t buy my claims hook, line, and sinker to be “corrupted, sloppy, and/or stupid.” Or worse.
There is a great deal of transparency. Datasets are freely available, especially after the problems with data availability associated with the so-called “Climategate” silliness – that was the only good thing to come out of it.
I don’t know what scientists have been calling others “corrupted, sloppy, and/or stupid” – not publicly, anyway.
It’s very hard to prove those wrong who are only interested in hearing what they want to believe, those who go to sites like this for their education about climate science without being open to opposing views.
I’m interested in other arguments, which is why I’m here. I’m searching for really good reasons I shouldn’t believe the majority, and haven’t found them yet. In the meantime, it’s hard not to comment on some of the weird things people say, especially the people playing at being climate scientists.
Bla bla bla.comes deep from Kristi,
“There is a great deal of transparency. Datasets are freely available, especially after the problems with data availability associated with the so-called “Climategate” silliness – that was the only good thing to come out of it.
I don’t know what scientists have been calling others “corrupted, sloppy, and/or stupid” – not publicly, anyway.”
Your ignorance is complete since you are unaware of the well proven evidence of corrupted data sets and that Climategate exposed the unethical behavior of scientists who were not being honest or transparent in their claims. It is in their own HANDWRITING!
It is clear you never read them.
GISS is the most corrupted temperature data set there is. It has been shown many times in blogs that it is garbage.
Better if you stop making yourself look foolish with your bot like replies.
Kristi: “the so-called “Climategate” silliness”
Allllrighty then. No need to read any more of your posts. Say hi to Peter Gleick for me.
What the oil industry knew and didn’t know has been thoroughly discussed.
1) They published all of their work at the time. Nothing was hidden.
2) They were saying then the same thing they are saying now. That the science behind the CO2 scare is speculative and not of sufficient quality to draw any conclusions from.
This so called scientific community has been saying that their is no need for debate because the science is settled. That they get ridiculed every time a new paper shows that the science is not in fact settled, is hardly surprising. They have no one to blame but themselves for claiming a certainty that they could not support.
“may be a lot less reliable than previously thought.”
At least they are finally moving over to the position that skeptics have been pointing out for 30 years.
So much for the claim that the science is settled.
“This so called scientific community has been saying that their is no need for debate because the science is settled. ” That’s absolutely ridiculous. There’s always debate within the scientific community. The science is not “settled,” it’s always improving. But debating whether the world is warming and whether we have anything to do with it is a waste of time. Better to debate the sources of uncertainty (meaning variability in predictions), particularly the role of water vapor flux.
‘What the oil industry knew and didn’t know has been thoroughly discussed.” Really? By whom? When? Why then don’t people take into account that there has been a massive propaganda campaign to discredit climate science?
Exxon’s executive would not tell their own shareholders what their scientists were finding. You think they told the public? Maybe some results were published, but not all.
“[A] 1968 report commissioned by the American Petroleum Institute (API)… stated that carbon dioxide emissions were accumulating in the atmosphere faster than natural processes were removing them and the probable explanation was fossil fuel emissions. The report warned that rising carbon dioxide levels would result in increases in temperature at the Earth’s surface and that significant increases in temperature could have numerous consequences, including causing ice caps to melt, sea levels to rise and oceans to warm.”
The (unpublished!) report is here: https://www.smokeandfumes.org/documents/document16
Sure, the FF industry was saying the evidence was uncertain. That’s exactly what they wanted people to think, and that’s what they’ve spent millions of dollars on propaganda trying to convince people that’s the case – very successfully indeed.
“But debating whether the world is warming and whether we have anything to do with it is a waste of time.”
That’s the strawman version of what sleptcs want to debate. As has been said here and on other skeptic sites, we accept that the world is warming and that human eissions are a factor in it—maybe the major factor. What’s debatable is how much of a factor our emissions play, how much warming there will be in the future, and whether it is rational to spend money on wind and solar power.
Wow, we have a new true believer missionary, who knows if he (she?) insukts, yells and echoes climste hyoe enough we will convert.
+1,000
In the immortal words of Stephen Schneider,
“On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but — which means that we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we’d like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that we need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public’s imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This ‘double ethical bind’ we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both.”
So IOW, it’s OK to hide your doubts and uncertainties, exaggerate, and make deceptive public statements to promote “belief” in poorly supported pseudo-science. The pseudo scientists who promote AGW manure deserve all the ridicule they get.
(I sure wish it were possible to reply directly to all posts!)
Roger Knights: “As has been said here and on other skeptic sites, we accept that the world is warming and that human eissions are a factor in it—maybe the major factor. ”
I wish that were generally the case! Not in my experience of skeptic sites. I was hoping this one was different, but I haven’t seen overwhelming evidence of it.
“What’s debatable is how much of a factor our emissions play, how much warming there will be in the future, and whether it is rational to spend money on wind and solar power.”
Our emissions are the factor we can control. As you say, they are a factor, and to me the data suggest they are likely a major factor, in global warming. How much warming there will be in the future is at least partly dependent on emissions. I realize there is uncertainty associated with how much warming there will be, but all we have are various climate models to estimate this. The debate seems to be not about quantifying the warming, but whether to trust the models. If the models are dismissed as useless, what other basis of debate is there? People can think of simpler models that come up with other answers, but why should they be considered more reliable, especially if not tested?
Whether it is rational to spend money on renewables is dependent on but separate from the science. In order to answer the question, it’s necessary to have as complete a picture as possible of the potential risks of doing nothing to lower emissions. I don’t see that aspect of the debate here at all. There are people who think warming would be a good thing, or that high atmospheric CO2 is good because it will help plants grow.
Then there are the economic questions of the relative cost of renewable vs. fossil fuel energy. This is a huge topic in itself, requiring consideration of global markets, environmental and human costs of different energies, technological changes, America’s role and reputation as a global leader, etc. There is also a moral factor: are we going to choose to be responsible for America’s contribution to current and anticipated problems due to climate change, or are we going to decide the matter based on purely selfish arguments? For us to have stayed in the Paris agreement would have cost less than $6 per person. The goals for carbon emission are non-binding, so even if we did nothing, we still could have signed. But that would have meant acknowledging that AGW was real.
Maybe it’s because I’m relatively new to the site, I don’t know, but I haven’t seen much discussion of policy issues..
Kristi Silber.
A real scientist has never been quoted publicly stating the word “Potentially.” Sorry for your luck…
“Archives have been released showing that the petroleum industry was way ahead of the game in research into CO2 and warming, suggesting it could become a problem back in the 1960s.”
So they were ahead of their time in speculating?
Speculation is not a crime. Besides, they were not the only people speculating about CO2 and the atmosphere at the time.
People have been speculating about humans and the Earth’s climate for many decades. They speculated that humans were causing the Earth to cool when the 1940 to 1980 cooling trend kicked in. Then, when the warming trend from 1980 to present kicked in, they did an aboutface and speculated that humans were causing the warming because of CO2.
Bottom line: Speculation is not a crime. The fossil fuel industry certainly had no evidence that CO2 would cause the Earth’s climate to change. They didn’t have any evidence, and noone else has any evidence either, to this very day.
No evidence. Then or now. The fossil fuel industry is off the hook.
Research is not speculation. See above post.
You can believe what you want, and I’m sure you will continue to do so regardless of the evidence.
The projection is strong with this one.
Kristi continues her pretzel logic,
“Research is not speculation. See above post.
You can believe what you want, and I’m sure you will continue to do so regardless of the evidence.”
100+ Climate models for year 2100 are examples of speculation, surely you knew this? They are not testable or falsifiable, which is why there are many skeptics who are not convinced by the shoddy unverified research you seem fond of.
They don’t create evidence either since they are built on assumptions, speculation, incomplete understanding on what drives weather and climate with a smattering of data embedded in them.
Surely you know how poorly supported they are?
Sunsettommy – ‘100+ Climate models for year 2100 are examples of speculation, surely you knew this? They are not testable or falsifiable, which is why there are many skeptics who are not convinced by the shoddy unverified research you seem fond of.”
Climate models ARE tested. “Surely you knew this?” I guess not, which means you haven’t the knowledge to justify disparaging them as mere speculation.
“Kristi Silber January 31, 2018 at 6:13 pm
Sunsettommy –” ‘100+ Climate models for year 2100 are examples of speculation, surely you knew this? They are not testable or falsifiable, which is why there are many skeptics who are not convinced by the shoddy unverified research you seem fond of.”
Kristi writes,
Climate models ARE tested. “Surely you knew this?” I guess not, which means you haven’t the knowledge to justify disparaging them as mere speculation.”
=========================================================================
Wow, really wow….!!!
Your ignorance has reached world class level.
Do you know that ALL science research claims has to be falsifiable or reproducible in real time to be considered a working hypothesis?
AGW doesn’t even reach the level of Hypothesis because you can’t test those long term models. Ever heard of The Scientific Method?
This is year 2018 which means we have no data for 82 years of the future. It is indeed speculation since there has been ZERO demonstrated forecast skill for those models, which if you bothered to read in the IPCC has several emission scenarios in them. which is the correct one, Kristi?
Snicker………
I brought up Falsifiable and testability, which those 100+ models lack, you ignored it, why?
I brought up the IPCC always wrong/failed Per Decade warming prediction/projections since 1990, how come you ignore it?
That’s only if the data shows cooling. In the other direction, it only takes one year of an El Nino, a large fire, a large flood, or a strong hurricane that hits land before you can talk about climate change. so basically, you need 30 years of data to argue against climate change but only 1 year of data to argue for it. Isn’t it interesting how that works?
Not strictly ture, if you do have 30 years, a number which has no meaning, they you will be told you need more. For one feature of climate ‘science’ is the ever extending deadlines of doom.
The fact that is means they will not be around to be asked why they got it so wrong, is merely ‘lucky chance’
Sneaky way of reporting on Greenland cooling without getting fired. Lots of papers are exactly like this. The paper says “omg, global warming” so they can keep their jobs but the data presented in the paper says “nothing much is actually happening”.
Geez, you put a lot of effort into intentionally misunderstanding people so you can think poorly of them.
What your evidence for your claim, Kristi?
Bill Ellis, is a well educated man in the field of science.
Try writing a paper that is explicitly counter to the climate consensus, backed with data, and see what happens.
Bill Illis has credentials and achievements. What do you bring?
Sunsettommy,
Just because I didn’t see your replies doesn’t mean I’m ignoring you.
Bill Illis said the data presented in the paper say “nothing much is happening” in terms of global warming. This is not what the data suggest at all – they don’t address the question. On both the pro- and anti-AGW sides, too much emphasis is placed by the media and individuals on local and short term variation, extrapolating it to argue that it is evidence for their argument that AGW is or is not happening. That’s not a valid interpretation. Variation is expected.
It seems that many in the public judge the debate based on the assumption that the majority of climate science is corrupt, based mainly on two incidents, “Climategate” and the claim that data was mishandled in the the Karl, et al. paper. The urge for deniers to believe there was misconduct is so strong that they won’t accept the results of 8 investigations into Climategate. Nor will they believe the scientist who attacked Karl that he didn’t claim the research was done wrong, only that the data were not archived properly.
Then there are the multitude of claims that data have been manipulated fraudulently. The problem here is that the reason for and method of adjustment are never addressed; it is merely assumed that it was wrong to do so.
Likewise, people will attack climate modeling without knowing anything about it – most importantly how the models are tested. Many don’t know the possible repercussions of climate change.
“AGW is a CONJECTURE at best since it can’t be properly falsifiable under normal science research. The evidence you seem to be a thrall over,are based on climate models that have been wrong for 27 years running.”
This is an example of the lack of knowledge of climate science and scientific method that I’m talking about. There are many ways of falsifying AGW theory. For instance, one could show that one of the basic mechanisms thought to be influencing climate has been completely misunderstood. One could show that the climate models are unstable, producing extremely unlikely results. Or, the globe could fail to warm for 30 years despite rising CO2 and accounting for natural variation (solar oscillations, for example).
For a model to be wrong for 27 years, it would have to be at least 27 years old. Climate modeling and data have improved greatly in the past 27 years; judging all models by the accuracy of the old ones is not valid. Apart from that, what is the test of “wrong” to you? You seem to think the models are falsifiable, so what has proven them false? Keep in mind that the “pause” would have to continue for it indicate that warming has changed its course, but it has not.
It is not my responsibility or desire to try to convince others of anything. I know from experience that is not worth the effort. What I would like to do is convince even a few to be a little more skeptical of the claims of those who wish to refute AGW. I would like to encourage people to explore the topic independently, learn more about it before making decisions.
Most of all, I hope that some might come to question the idea that climate science is corrupt and untrustworthy. I want people to be aware that there has been a long, well-organized effort explicitly designed to exaggerate the uncertainty of climate science and question the credibility of scientists, and the effort has been directed at the Right. To me this has been irresponsible, anti-democratic and harmful to our nation even apart for its effects on the AGW debate.
“The [petroleum] industry’s own scientists were internally warning of climate
dangers by the mid-1990s, as evidenced by a leaked draft
document by a team headed by a scientist at Mobil that
was distributed to other major fossil fuel companies in
1995 (Figure 8, p. 26, Appendix G, p. 44). As that internal
document from 1995 unequivocally states: “The scientific
basis for the Greenhouse Effect and the potential impact of
human emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2 on climate
is well established and cannot be denied” ”
https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/07/The-Climate-Deception-Dossiers.pdf
(…This was written in 2015; more supporting evidence has come to light since)
Those laymen who believe AGW is speculation believe so not because they reject the science behind the models; they haven’t the knowledge to evaluate them, which is no fault of their own. The complexity of climate science is well beyond those who aren’t active in the field – including me. But as a scientist myself who has investigated many, many claims made by skeptics, i can at least appreciate the way words have been twisted, false assumptions made, evidence ignored and scientists vilified by those pushing an agenda of denial. I’ve also seen evidence for the enormous conflict of interest in a denier community that has received so much funding from the fossil fuel industry. I’ve read an original memo discussing in detail the propaganda campaign they initiated.
i choose to trust the vast majority of climate scientists (and NOT the media alarmists!). Out of all the claims of scandal and corruption, there has not been one that has been justified once investigated. Errors have been uncovered, but nothing amounting to scientific misconduct. If there had been, careers would have ended – the scientific community will not tolerate fraud, cannot afford to do so when so much is at stake.
“Trust has been eroded to the point where it is an issue for our long-term future.”
– Shell CEO Ben van Beurden
Wow Kristi, fails to answer a very simple question. My eyes almost bleed trying to find it in your long winded comment.
First of all this is what Bill Illis stated,
“Sneaky way of reporting on Greenland cooling without getting fired. Lots of papers are exactly like this. The paper says “omg, global warming” so they can keep their jobs but the data presented in the paper says “nothing much is actually happening”.”
A clear statement that even a cavewoman can understand what his point is.
Your reply,
“Geez, you put a lot of effort into intentionally misunderstanding people so you can think poorly of them.”
Your reply didn’t disprove anything he stated. Which is why I asked you to back up your claim against him,
Sunsettommy writes,
“What your evidence for your claim, Kristi?”
Your reply is all over the map, while failing to answer my simple question.
It is clear that you can’t dispute Bills line you babbled over:
“The paper says “omg, global warming” so they can keep their jobs but the data presented in the paper says “nothing much is actually happening”.”
You never read the paper he comments on, he has since that is part of his work. He works in the field seeing this phenomenon which is why he made that comment, it is from his personal experience as a researcher.
It is obvious you have NEVER read and studied Climategate, I have the Book that covers all of the released e-mails. There was a lot going on behind the scenes you clearly don’t know about.
Your lie is evident, maybe due to ignorance or willful denial:.
“then there are the multitude of claims that data have been manipulated fraudulently. The problem here is that the reason for and method of adjustment are never addressed; it is merely assumed that it was wrong to do so.”
No they AVOID explaining their numerous changes to the point that in the GISS dataset, the well known cooling trend from the 1940’s to the late 1970’s has almost completely vanished. But was very prominent back in their 1981 chart, It was about a .5 F cooling over that time, now almost zero today.
I LIVED through the 1960’s and 70’s reading and hearing about the obvious global cooling trend. Global cooling was real and long lasting. The media was filled with it and even a quite a few science papers were published about it.
Your next set of babbling is plain dumb because climate models you are fond of has not been validated, how can you when you have 82 years of missing data…….. How do you test for 82 years of the future that hasn’t happened yet?
Please don’t continue to be this illogical.
“Likewise, people will attack climate modeling without knowing anything about it – most importantly how the models are tested. Many don’t know the possible repercussions of climate change.”
No they are NOT TESTABLE!
Think Kristi, think!
You can NOT test what is incomplete and lacks demonstrated forecast ability. The very existence of over 100 SEPARATE models based on SEPARATE emission scenarios that runs to year 2100, with large temperature range on guessed emissions of the future. show they have no idea which one if any are credible.
It is playstation pseudoscience operating right under your nose. The fact that you can’t see it exposes your lack of understanding about what is really going on.
By the way Kristi, there are many here who comments who know a LOT about those models you are poorly defending. as many are scientists or have science background, some of them even worked in past IPCC reports.
Bill Illis January 30, 2018 at 4:08 pm
“Sneaky way of reporting on Greenland cooling without getting fired.”
WR: Indeed, I have seen that more often. The researchers have to speak ‘the magic words’ for future funding and publication. But in the same time the researchers feel the need to reveal the truth and they do it in this way.
Are they grazing large herds of cows and sheep on lush Greenland pastures and making grass hay sufficient to keep them healthy every winter again? Are they raising grains… and grapes again? If not, it is still colder than the ‘Eric The Red’ extended viking settlement era. Next…..
I don’t think the Norseman was growing grapes in Greenland, although they might have been in Vinland which is likely in Canada.
They did have cattle, sheep, goats, so there must have been lots of fresh grass for at least part of the year.
The proof that Greenland was once warmer is finding old settlements and artifacts being uncovered by retreating ice. Its hard to argue with that, but I expect the alarmists do.
“More than 2,000 remarkably well-preserved hunting artefacts have emerged from melting ice in Norway’s highest mountains, dating as far back as 4000 BC.
The incredible finds were made by ‘glacial archaeologists’ in Jotunheimen and the surrounding areas of Oppland, which include Norway’s highest mountains.
They looked at the edge of the contracting ice and recovered artefacts of wood, textile, hide and other organic materials.
Included in the archaeologists’ haul is a ski with preserved binding from 700 AD – only the second one to be preserved globally – as well as a Bronze Age shoe from 1300 BC.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5298649/2-000-artefacts-Norway-insight-mountain-life.html#ixzz55ijCilud
We did not have that many government subsidized Teslas here back then, you see…..
Some years ago, a son and I camped in remote SW Greenland (taken in by boat, with tent and food, and collected several miles along the coast 5 days later – awesome). Where I was, nothing was lush, there were no cows sheep grapes or whatever. Just dense clouds of man-eating mosquitoes and midges. It was very much summer-time, but the nights were stunningly cold. I think it would take an awful lot of AGW (Anthropogenic Greenland Warming) to get a grape to grow there.
That sounds like an amazing adventure!
If temperature data is unreliable because of the lack of coverage and the issues with in filling places like Greenland and Russia etc how accurate is the data being used to support the global warming scam. If you extrapolate this to the lack of reliable observations in the oceans which is 70-80% of the globes surface it’s easy to see how the error bars could be greater than the 2 degrees of global warming that will fry us. The lunacy of these data records and the method of using the nearest weather station can be seen if one looks up the difference in temperatures that may exist in suburbs which may be less than 10 kilometres apart. The confirmation bias which inflicts the warmists who publish this data ensures that it’s accuracy is very much in doubt.
ABC Australia just aired this. watch or click on Transcript at bottom of text:
29 Jan: ABC Foreign Correspondent: On Top Of The World
Is the world going mad when Greenlanders fight drought and brushfires and catch warm water fish? A decade after discovering a farming boom in Greenland, Eric Campbell returns to see how locals are facing up to climate change…
ERIC CAMPBELL: Thomas Juul-Pedersen is a senior scientist at the Greenland Climate Research Centre.
THOMAS JUUL-PEDERSEN: “The ice sheet has always been melting, there’s always been a melting season, but that melting season seems to dramatically increase. So it starts melting earlier, and the melt continues for full into the autumn every year. And last year there was a very high melt season for instance and it started very early. It is telling us that climate change is real. There’s no doubt about that”.
ERIC CAMPBELL: Climate change sceptics do cast doubt, pointing out that the cap grew slightly this season thanks to record snowfall. But that was caused by record hurricanes. A series of superstorms in the Caribbean sent record precipitation all the way to the Arctic.
THOMAS JUUL-PEDERSEN: “It’s the same trend you see not only in Greenland, but in many places around the world where more numerous hurricanes, larger hurricanes, droughts, floodings – all these things – it’s all signs of a changing climate. The ice sheet is comprised of old snow, so when new snow or more snow on it will of course increase the mass of the ice sheet, but if that is followed by increased melting as well in the following years, then it will go away as well”…READ ON
http://www.abc.net.au/foreign/on-top-of-the-world/9371502
“And last year there was a very high melt season for instance and it started very early. It is telling us that climate change is real. There’s no doubt about that”
Maybe no doubt to a one-track mind, but increased geothermal activity could account for that.
‘Several Thousand’ Hot (60°C) Springs ‘All Over’ Greenland Melt The Ice Sheet From Bottom Up
http://notrickszone.com/2018/01/24/groundbreaking-agw-undermining-study-greenlands-warming-ice-loss-due-to-geothermal-heat/#sthash.vMvYeqHU.dpbs
For all interested, the geothermal heat flux values mentioned in the article above are very similar to those beneath the area feeding the Thwaites, Crosson, and Dotson glaciers in Antarctica (see map below). Climate scientists say that their ice shelves are melting due to AGW. There is a recently discovered cavern underneath the Dotson ice shelf that runs its entire length and is about 15 km wide and 200 m high. An expedition is currently in Antarctica to send drones underneath the ice shelf to explore it and gather data. Should be interesting to hear what they find.
Point of interest: On the map above, between the -120 longitude and the label that says ‘Thwaites Glacier’ you will see 3 white dots forming a triangle. Those are volcanoes, and that is the area of the Dotson Glacier,
“Give me a computer and an adjustment algorithm and you could get almost any trend. ”
There …. fixed it to what he meant to say
Obvious question: Did the satellite temps match up with the readings of the 45 weather stations?
That is, did we need the satellite “thermometers” to tell us that the ice-free part of Greenland was slightly cooling?
Greenland cooling:
http://www.thegwpf.com/content/uploads/2017/07/Greenland-cooling.png
He didn’t reference this paradigm: “You need to have thirty years’ worth of data before you can “talk about climate,”
If they have a good 15 years, how many stations do they have at 20, 25, 30? I want to see the supplementary material before I believe the only thing they did was back off of proclaiming.
We need 30 years of weather data to disprove Global Warming.
They prove Global Warming with untested models!
If the news is “bad”, you need thirty years’ worth of data; if the news is “good” for climate alarmism, 30 minutes of a weather event will do.
What’s wrong with this guy? Why hasn’t he adjusted the data to get the required result? Someone send in the hockey team!
** Kristi Silber
January 30, 2018 at 4:01 pm
FIRST I DIRECT YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS!
https://www.ucsusa.org/press/2016/new-evidence-reveals-fossil-fuel-industry-funded-cutting-edge-climate-science-research#.WnDnh66nGig
Archives have been released showing that the petroleum industry was way ahead of the game in research into CO2 and warming, suggesting it could become a problem back in the 1960s.**
There is nothing in the article substantiating that CO2 causes temperature increase. Nothing but SPECULATION.
It’s not supposed to do so. It’s reporting about other research, not speculation. Why would the API commission a report of speculations? Maybe you are reacting to scientists’ wishy-washy way of saying things, avoiding words like “prove” and using words like “could” because scientists are always aware of the uncertainty inherent in all science – it’s part of what makes science such a wonderful tool that it never claims to “prove” anything, but is always open to alternative and refinement. “‘…no doubt that the potential damage to our environment could be severe’” is a pretty strong assertion for a scientist, I’d say.
Fifty years of research and evidence, and still people think it’s speculation!
Come on Kristi, what are you saying?
You here to make a defense of something you have no clue about?
Not once have you made a coherent argument on anything. You have been ignoring me, which is increasing my suspicion that you are bot running on a program to waste time with your inane comments.
AGW is a CONJECTURE at best since it can’t be properly falsifiable under normal science research. The evidence you seem to be a thrall over,are based on climate models that have been wrong for 27 years running.
If you are real, make cogent replies in YOUR OWN words.
Kristi,
You are a long winded troll.
You reference stuff that does not say what you claim and you ignore counter evidence to the religion you are pimping.
I find you be as annoying as a Jehovah’s Witness banging on my door on a Saturday morning, but you are much less polite with your repetitive droning of the same disproved points.
What are you trying to accomplish?
**while GISS approaches the problem by filling in the gaps with data from the nearest land stations, up to a distance of 1200 kilometers (746 miles) away. In this way, the GISS analysis achieves near total coverage in the Arctic.**
Should be, “In this way, the GISS analysis achieves warming in the Arctic when there is no evidence.”
Greenland is abnormally cold this winter!
Most “climate modelers” and all glaciologists fail to understand that Summit Greenland is above 3000 meters msl, i.e. Greenland is a giant mountain! At more than 3000 meters above msl it is dang cold and dry at Summit and that will always be so at least for the next 100,000 years!
Ha ha
In this short 1-page report of the cooling of Greenland’s habitable area they repeat the panic-stricken mantra “but but global warming is still real!” TEN TIMES. This polemical hysteria reaches the level of self-parody.
Can you blame them when they know that their research will be picked up and picked at and misinterpreted by people on sites like this?
Ha ha ha,
you completely misunderstood, Ptolemy’s comment.
You write like a stupid bot.
Some people have no sense of humor.
Cooling Greenland temp trends is consistent with Greenland’s NET Ice Mass increasing by 44 billion tons in 2017, which NOAA suggests is the first time in 100 years this has occurred. (which is a VERY difficult claim to prove)…:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/greenland-ice-sheets-2017-weigh-suggests-small-increase-ice-mass
Anyway, once the AMO and NAO ocean cycles enter their respective 30-year cool cycles in early 2020’s, Greenland’s temps will continue to decline for many decades to come.
The 50~70 year Grand Solar Minimum event starting from 2020 will also likely add to Greenland/global cooling until the end of this century.
CAGW is so busted… It has become a joke.
I just ran a small statistical experiment with Excel that had, in my opinion, a very interesting result. I started by entering “1.00” in cell A1. In cell A2 I entered “=A1 + randbetween(-5,5)/10”, which gave me a random number between -5 and 5, then turned it into a decimal by dividing by 10 (randbetween returns whole numbers between your bounds).
I then copied that cell and pasted it into cells A3 through A7280, which I believe is the number of stations in the NOAA GHCN, from whose data NOAA determines the GHCN v3 monthly data. That gave me 7280 random numbers in the range -1.5 to 1.5, which is a fair representation of historical average global anomalies. None of the real values have gone above or below ±1.0, but having the slightly larger range just adds some inertia to the average, which is fine. Then I copied those numbers into a text editor and back into the document again to get rid of the embedded formula but keep the values. Finally, I copied the values into column B as well, so that I had two identical columns of numbers, and two identical average calculations for each column. I formatted the numbers to two decimal places.
Now I had my setup. My goal was to find out how many stations had to get “hotter” to bump up the “global” average for the 7280 stations. I increased the value in a column by 0.05, which seemed to me to be a reasonable average monthly anomaly increase for an individual station.
To cut to the chase, I only had to bump up 450 station out of 7280 by 0.05 to get the “global” average up to 1.01 from 1.00. That represents only 6% of the total number of “stations” in my “network” that had to increase by only 5/100ths of a degree to “warm” the Earth by 0.01 degrees.
Can “warming” that affects only 6% of stations truly be “global”? Couldn’t it be just as likely that a few “hot spots” are getting smushed into the global average and making the world appear to be warming? The “warming” I generated is within the error boundaries of these measurements (±0.5 C), but is still representative of what we see in the literature every month.
Going to have to spend some more time looking at these numbers. Who knows what else is hiding in there?
Very interesting.
Thanks for pursuing this.
Please keep us informed.
Look at the time series illustrations of GMT on the NOAA site. Warming is happening all over, though not all uniformly and synchronously.
Who or what are you replying to Kristi?
Sunsettommy
Give Kristi a break bro!
Generally speaking it is no doubt correct that Greenland has been warming and melting – hardly surprising at the peak of the AMO wave when a strengthened Gulf Stream has been bringing warmer water to Greenland. If course, what goes up must come down. As the AMO imminently starts its descent, all this will be reversed.
If you read what she said to Bill Illis…………, plus she doesn’t debate anything, all while she is incoherent most of the time.
OT but it was just announced on the nightly TV news that some South Australian towns today had their lowest ever summer maximum temperature. Just weather I guess. These will be homogenised out of the historical data sets no doubt.
Jennifer Marohasy has documented the editing of data by the CSIRO to hide declines and fabricate increases quite well.
I’m all for Climate Change, that’s why I bought an air conditioner.
Due to an interest in the debate about the degree to which climate change rather than economic factors caused the decline of the medieval Norse settlements in Greenland I was browsing the literature on NAO , assuming that it might be relevant to the southern tip of Greenland where the Eastern settlement lay. (the NAO literature is enormous and would take a lifetime to absorb). I came across this , published in 2013:
doi:10.1002/2013GL057877, 2013
NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean
temperature multidecadal variability
Jianping Li,1 Cheng Sun,1 and Fei-Fei Jin2
They predict a period of cooling for Northern Hemisphere , round about now:
-The twentieth century Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature (NHT) is characterized by a multidecadal warming-cooling-warming pattern followed by a flat trend since about 2000 (recent warming hiatus). Here we demonstrate that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is implicated as a useful predictor of NHT multidecadal variability. Observational analysis shows that the NAO leads both the detrended NHT and oceanic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) by 15–20 years. Theoretical analysis illuminates that the NAO precedes NHT multidecadal variability through its delayed effect on the AMO due to the large thermal inertia associated with slow oceanic processes. An NAO-based linear model is therefore established to predict the NHT, which gives an excellent hindcast for NHT in 1971–2011 with the recent flat trend well predicted. NHT in 2012–2027 is predicted to fall slightly over the next decades, due to the recent NAO decadal weakening that temporarily offsets the anthropogenically induced warming. Citation: Li, J.,
C. Sun, and F.-F. Jin (2013), NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5497–5502, doi:10.1002/2013GL057877.-
Some testable climate science! Whatever next?
There is a recent open access article that may be relevant to this discussion :
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-19992-w
Contrasting temperature trends across the ice-free part of Greenland
Andreas Westergaard-Nielsen1 , Mojtaba Karami1 , Birger Ulf Hansen1, Sebastian Westermann2
& Bo Elberling 1
Part of the abstract reads:
-“. We show that recent temperature trends in Greenland vary signifcantly between seasons
and regions and that data with resolutions down to single km2 are critical to map temperature changes
for guidance of further local studies and decision-making. Only a fraction of the ice-free Greenland
seems vulnerable due to warming when analyzing year 2001–2015, but the most pronounced changes
are found in the most populated parts of Greenland. As Greenland represents important gradients of
north/south coast/inland/distance to large ice sheets, the conclusions are also relevant in an upscaling
to greater Arctic areas.-
Among the summaries of the study is this sentence which could be of interest :
-“(2) Warming trends observed from 1986–2016 across the ice-free Greenland is mainly related to warming in the 1990’s. The most recent and detailed trends based on MODIS (2001–2015) shows contrasting trends
across Greenland, and if any general trend it is mostly a cooling. The MODIS dataset provides a unique
detailed picture of spatiotemporally distributed changes during the last 15 years.-
Nick Stokes
“Sea level is measured by altimetry.”
G’ Day Nick, Satellite altimetry measurements are subject to variation caused by natural influences such as: tide movement, barometric pressure variations, wave height, wind direction, thermal expansion and contraction. There are also the instrument limitations and errors such as atmospheric distortion, beam width, range discrimination, digitization error and orbital variations. When you are dealing with sea level rise of a few millimetres per year and variables that exceed the sea level rise by several orders of magnitude there is good reason to take satellite altimetry measurements with several grains of salt.
NASA has revised its sea level data for October 2017 on its official website.I don’t know what that means？
Greenland has always been covered with ice. It should be called Iceland. And Iceland should be called Bjork. Iceland is known for two things: volcanoes and Bjork
lol +10
To underline this point, consider lower troposphere temperature change observed in the Arctic region as a whole since the start of the satellite series (according to UAH). The warming rate since 1979 is +0.25C/dec, giving a total lower tropospheric warming of ~1.0C.
Arctic region is the column marked ‘NoPol’: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
But it is not measuring the Temperature in the Arctic, it is measuring the Heat leaving the Arctic.
Only ground based measurements can do so.
And temperatures at Nuuk are no higher now than in the 1930s and 40s
“We need 30 years of data to talk about climate”
This only applies to cooler temperatures, of course. For a warming climate, a one-day record for a single station is plenty.
Shouldn’t there be tens of thousands of pictures available showing the sea level rise around the world for the past 100+ years? Back then those people wouldn’t even have heard the phrase “climate change”.
Why bother reporting it if it scares them that much. Run!!
“You need 30 years of weather to find a climate trend”.
Please tell that to the climate hype industry which declares every weather event “proof” of global warming.
Greenland melting? Global warming.
Greenland gaining ice? Climste change.
A storm? Extreme weather.
Nothing happening?
Ignore it.
So the weather is getting colder in the populated, non-glaciated part of Greenland, where there are thermometers to record real temperature data.
But these “scientists” assume that the ice-covered, unpopulated areas of Greenland must be getting warmer even if they have no data, just “because” their models say so?
If they’re so convinced that it’s getting warmer on the Greenland icecap, why don’t the scientists move up there and bask in the warm weather all winter, and bring a thermometer?
“It says here its colder than it is.”
By this time next week it will be not just Greenland getting colder.
Canada along with the mid and eastern USA, plus northern Russia and much of europe look set to join them. But the the Arctic looks set for some sudden warming so the AWG crowd will just say its due to global warming. 🙂
Greenland, the icy island nation in the Arctic, gets its name from an Icelandic murderer exiled there, who called it “Greenland” in hopes that the name would attract settlers. But it turns out that long ago, Greenland was actually quite green.
It is rather curious that all the adjustments to the raw data moved it in one direction only. Having measured temperature in physical property labs for 29 years using every sort of thermocouple, platinum resistance thermometer, thermistor, and liquid in glass thermometer; I can’t think of a measurement uncertainty or bias that always made the past colder. Perhaps the Stevenson screens were painted progressively darker shades of gray in the past?
Iceland temperatures comparing a negative PDO phase with a positive PDO phase.
Years Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year
1931-1970 -0.7 -0.7 0.3 2.6 6.7 9.7 11.2 10.7 8.2 4.3 1.6 -0.1 4.5
1975-2004 -1.3 -0.7 -0.3 2.3 6.0 9.1 10.9 10.6 7.3 3.7 1.0 -0.6 4.0
Iceland was colder during the more recent years when the NAO and AO become more positive with a zonal jet stream.
Southern Greenland temperatures comparing a negative PDO phase with a positive PDO phase.
Years Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year
1931-1970 -7.1 -7.2 -6.3 -3.2 1.8 5.3 7.2 6.7 3.9 -0.2 -3.4 -5.9 -0.7
1975-2004 -7.7 -8.3 -8.1 -3.7 0.6 4.1 6.4 6.1 3.5 -0.4 -3.5 -6.1 -1.4
Southern Greenland was also colder during the more recent years when the NAO and AO become more positive with zonal jet stream.
Oh boy, the good professor fell into the unintended prediction trap a la Ben Santer re the hiatus! -You need at least a decade of no warming before you start thinking about falsifying CAGW theory- When it reached 18 years it caused the notorious “Climate Blues” epidemic from doubt about Global Warming that pole axed a number of climate scientist believers right out of their careers. Karlization if temperatures followed to unceremoniously stop the hiatus in its tracks and prevent the Blues taking down the remaining low integrity climateer stalwarts.
In the present case -the Prof says the cooling of non-ice-covered parts of Greenland since 2000 is only weather! You need 30 years of it to talk about a climate signal. Strangely Prof missed the opportunity to observe that this cooling coincided with the Dreaded Pause! One thing eminently predictable is the ironical hubris of the climate sorcerers. I’m betting on the cooling of Greenland to reach the 30 year deadline – 12 years to go.
Other Danish researchers find that NE Grenland glaciers are melting not because of “global warming”, but from geothermal heating.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-19244-x
“We need 30 years of weather data to disprove Global Warming”
Oh dear, I give you 50 years with rising CO2 levels of weather data that disproves global warming between 1931 and 1980.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1931/to:1980/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1931/to:1980/trend
BUT we ignore that because of negative ocean cycles and blame positive ocean cycles instead.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/nsidc-seaice-n/from:1979/normalise/plot/esrl-amo/from:1979
As a pilot you are taught to trust your instruments not your senses or instinct. Especially at night or in low visibility.