Latest Excuse for the Global Warming Pause: The Bali Volcano

Bali Volcano Mount Agung November 2017 Eruption
Bali Volcano Mount Agung November 2017 Eruption. By Michael W. Ishak (www.myreefsdiary.com) [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

A NASA Scientist is claiming that if Mount Agung in Bali erupts, it could plunge the world into a cold period for several years.

Bali volcano REVERSE global warming: NASA say Mount Agung could plunge earth into ice age

BALI’S volcano eruption could plunge the earth into a prolonged cold spell as scientists warn Mount Agung explosion could reverse global climate change for up to five years.

By VICKIIE OLIPHANT

PUBLISHED: 13:26, Wed, Nov 29, 2017 | UPDATED: 16:56, Wed, Nov 29, 2017

And the result will be in a reverse of global warming, as the planet’s temperatures cool instead of increasing as projected.

NASA climate scientist Chris Colose said: “To have a notable climate impact, there needs to be an explosive enough eruption (to get material in the stratosphere) and a sulphur-rich eruption (the SO2 converts to sulphate aerosol, which is what radiatively matters).

“If these conditions are met, the eruption cools the surface/troposphere and warms the stratosphere, the opposite of both patterns associated with CO2 increases. But both are very short-lived (~years).”

The 1963 eruption was not exceptional in volume of ash produced, according to Mr Colose, but “somewhat unique in sulphur released”.

He said: “For volcanoes to do anything to climate you need a lot of SO2 released and a high enough plume for that SO2 to get into the stratosphere.

“The SO2 particles have sizes comparable to a visible wavelength and are strongly scattering to incoming sunlight, cooling the planet

“If a similar SO2 release occurred, could cool planet for 1-2 years, and then a recovery.”

Read more: https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/885802/Bali-volcano-Mount-Agung-news-update-freeze-climate-change-global-warming-NASA-indonesia

The huge Bali Agung volcano has erupted at a convenient time for climate scientists. If the volcano properly blows its top, it buys them a few more years to excuse their failed climate predictions.

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November 29, 2017 1:09 pm

Bingo!

The first of a long line of excuses for crap science.

Sara
Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2017 4:00 pm

“if Mount Agung in Bali erupts….”

Excuse me: IF it erupts???? Have they been paying attention to the news lately? The first signs were back in September. There were rumblings in the magma chamber back then. Its eruption started with a high-volume cloud of ash and gases, while the magma chamber was filling up. Now Agung is blowing magma out the porthole.

I’m just gobsmacked that not one of these brilliant people – NOT ONE – has even considered the possibility that the 12/25/2004 (Boxing Day) quake at Banda Aceh may have disturbed that chain of volcanoes (Ring of Fire) enough for this to happen. There are similar geological things going on that these people are ignoring at their peril. Whatever happens with weather after Agung’s eruption will depend on the ash and gas volume, how much volume in sulfates is ejected, because that sticks around for a long, long time.

I’m waiting for someone to actually try to blame the eruption (a natural event) on AGW. That’s a stretching exercise you couldn’t get, even in an expensive gym.

The Earth has its own agenda. We’re just along for the ride.

NME666
Reply to  Sara
November 29, 2017 5:33 pm

Algore is great at stretching, and Bull$h*ting

Reply to  Sara
November 29, 2017 11:23 pm

“”The Earth has its own agenda. We’re just along for the ride.””

Exactly. Adapt or die. We are adapting for the wrong future. Human extinction event maybe?

George Tetley
Reply to  Sara
November 30, 2017 2:09 am

Attention Scientists
There are over 500 active volcanoes with an eruption every 10-14 days .
ref. google.

Louis Hooffstetter
Reply to  Sara
November 30, 2017 5:40 am

NASA climate “scientist” Chris Colose…

The proper term is ‘witch doctor’. Please stop using the term “scientist” when referring to these charlatans.

PaulH
Reply to  HotScot
November 30, 2017 6:01 am

At least they’re admitting their models cannot account for volcanic activity.

MarkW
November 29, 2017 1:09 pm

El Nino = global warming
Big volcano = excuse

Lucius von Steinkaninchen
November 29, 2017 1:10 pm

I like how they insist in using “reverse global warming” instead of just saying “global cooling” or “volcanic winter”, both simpler expressions that already exist.

JohnKnight
Reply to  Lucius von Steinkaninchen
November 29, 2017 1:53 pm

This similar bit is even worse, it seems to me;

“BALI’S volcano eruption could plunge the earth into a prolonged cold spell as scientists warn Mount Agung explosion could reverse global climate change for up to five years.”

Gee, if the sun goes out, we’ll be stuck in an unchanging climate forever ; )

marty
Reply to  JohnKnight
November 30, 2017 5:48 pm

It is only a delay of the CAGW

Tom Halla
November 29, 2017 1:11 pm

A good example of evidence not affecting the True Believers.

DC Cowboy
Editor
November 29, 2017 1:11 pm

So a volcanic eruption can retroactively cause temps to not match the model projections?

Ain’t science wonderful?

Latitude
November 29, 2017 1:13 pm

could cool planet for 1-2 years, and then a recovery.”…5-6 years of business as usual

DeLoss McKnight
November 29, 2017 1:17 pm

I think everyone who comments on this blog was having the same thoughts that this eruption could give proponents of global warming a reprieve in the evidence of their “projections”.

Off topic, I was doing some historical research and stumbled by chance on a 1916 news article of an interview with Sir Arthur Conan Doyle on Spiritualism. In the article, he quotes J. Arthur Hill in the National Review: “we have reached a point where further proof is superfluous, and where the weight of disproof lies upon those who deny. . . . We should now be at the close of the stage of investigation and beginning the period of religious reconstruction…” I thought the parallel with today’s debate remarkable.

Reply to  DeLoss McKnight
November 29, 2017 1:38 pm

DeLoss McKnight

I think you’re absolutely correct. From experience, I think we all recognise that any disruption to the case of a steadily, and catastrophically warming planet, will be manipulated to project it’s certainty even further out, and to an even greater extent. In short a steeper and steeper climatic cliff edge, with ever more certainty, will loom, further and further out

Sir Arthur Conan Doyle – Another great Jock (a Scot to those who understand a jock to be a changing room hero).

And even more off topic (forgive me mod).

Wha’s Like Us – Damn Few And They’re A’ Deid
By Tom Anderson Cairns

The average Englishman, in the home he calls his castle, slips into his national costume, a raincoat, patented by chemist Charles Macintosh from Glasgow, Scotland.

En route to his office he strides along the English lane, surfaced by John Macadam of Ayr, Scotland.

He drives an English car fitted with tyres invented by John Boyd Dunlop of Dreghorn, Scotland.

At the train station he boards a train, the forerunner of which was a steam engine, invented by James Watt of Greenock, Scotland.

He then pours himself a cup of coffee from a thermos flask, the latter invented by James Dewar, a Scotsman from Kincardine-on-Forth.

At the office he receives the mail bearing adhesive stamps invented by James Chalmers of Dundee, Scotland.

During the day he uses the telephone invented by Alexander Graham Bell, born in Edinburgh, Scotland.

At home in the evening his daughter pedals her bicycle invented by Kirkpatrick Macmillan, blacksmith of Dumfries, Scotland.

He watches the news on his television, an invention of John Logie Baird of Helensburgh, Scotland,

And an item about the U.S. Navy, founded by John Paul Jones of Kirkbean, Scotland.

He has by now been reminded too much of Scotland and in desperation he picks up the Bible only to find that the first man mentioned in the good book is a Scot, King James VI, who authorised its translation.

Nowhere can an Englishman turn to escape the ingenuity of the Scots.

He could take to drink, but the Scots make the best in the world.

He could take a rifle and end it all but the breech-loading rifle was invented by Captain Patrick Ferguson of Pitfours, Scotland.

If he escapes death, he might then find himself on an operating table injected with penicillin, which was discovered by Alexander Fleming of Darvel, Scotland.

Or under anaesthetic, which was discovered by Sir James Young Simpson of Bathgate, Scotland.

Out of the anaesthetic, he would find no comfort in learning he was as safe as the Bank of England founded by William Paterson of Dumfries, Scotland.

Perhaps his only remaining hope would be to get a transfusion of guid Scottish blood which would entitle him to ask “Wha’s Like Us”.

[Sigh…now I wish I were a Scot… -mod]

(My Ancestors from Scotland,clan GUNN) MOD

1saveenergy
Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2017 2:26 pm

You forgot that,
under the incandesent light bulb invented Dundee 1835 by James Bowman Lindsey the Englishman would be able to check his Jockstrap. (:-))

F. Leghorn
Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2017 3:11 pm

I’m an American of Scots-Irish descent. Does that count?

Reply to  F. Leghorn
November 29, 2017 4:21 pm

squiggy9000

You have Scot’s blood coursing through your veins. You are hereinafter recognised as a Sweaty Sock!

vukcevic
Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2017 3:14 pm

what, no mention of the greatest Scotsman of them all James Clerk Maxwell, one of the most influential scientists of all time.
Albert Einstein acknowledged that the origins of the special theory of relativity lay in Clerk Maxwell’s theories, saying “The work of James Clerk Maxwell changed the world forever”

Reply to  vukcevic
November 29, 2017 4:23 pm

vukcevic

Nor the contribution to industry and philanthropy of Carnegie.

But Scottish tea towels are only so big. And that’s usually where this is reproduced.

Bruce
Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2017 3:22 pm

Very good. you missed Scot Free

I Came I Saw I Left
Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2017 3:37 pm

And real sharp dressers, too. I treasure the bit of Scot in me.

http://jokelibrary.net/nationalities/a_to_z/scottish-piper.jpg

Reply to  I Came I Saw I Left
November 29, 2017 4:25 pm

I Came I Saw I Left

Nothing more striking, or elegant than a man wearing the Kilt.

Annie
Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2017 4:13 pm

So how come present day Scots have the Sturgeon and Salmon(d) in charge, to their great dis-benefit?
BTW, I do have a little Scottish blood in me!

Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2017 4:28 pm

Annie

Sadly, we all have our crosses to bear.

[And the mods most firmly hope that all Sweaty Socks and Hot Kilts are left in place to maintain the bear decorum further up wear they cross. .mod]

Thomas
Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2017 8:41 pm

Watt improved, but did not invent, the steam engine.

Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2017 8:46 pm

Insidious lies by the Western enemies of the great Russian Empire!
Russians invented everything, Russians were the first in everything!
To say otherwise is to become a foreign agent working against… a bunch of low-brow bandits robbing blind their own country and keeping their money in Westtern banks?
Anyway, FSB should pay more attention to these Scottish claims! Beware!

Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2017 8:48 pm

I have friends who say, though, that all of these good works are offset – and then some – by the invention of the bagpipes.

(Being part Scot myself, I think there is nothing so effective at getting the blood up and moving in the morning as a good bagpipe war song. I usually start with “Alba an Aigh” when feeling traditional, “March of Cambreadth” when more modern.)

Reply to  Writing Observer
November 30, 2017 12:38 am

Writing Observer

I have friends who say, though, that all of these good works are offset – and then some – by the invention of the bagpipes.

Ach, F’kn heretics. whit dae they ken?

M E Emberson.
Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2017 10:09 pm

http://www.englandsnortheast.co.uk/electric1870s.html Electricity lights up Newcastle on Tyne. Northumberland..N E England
George Stephenson produced steam trains. etc etc.

Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2017 11:29 pm

(My Ancestors from Scotland,clan GUNN) MOD

SNAP!

I Came I Saw I Left
Reply to  HotScot
November 30, 2017 3:30 am

HotScot November 29, 2017 at 4:25 pm

“Nothing more striking, or elegant than a man wearing the Kilt”

Oh yes there is. A drum and pipe band wearing kilts. Your list forgot the most important Scottish invention: the bagpipe.

Reply to  I Came I Saw I Left
November 30, 2017 4:57 am

I Came I Saw I Left

I believe the Irish were using the pipes before the Scots who popularised them.

michael hart
Reply to  HotScot
November 30, 2017 7:12 am

My father’s a Scot, too. But as Annie points out, where are their modern equivalents? The nation currently seems to be run by small-minded nationalistic bigots only one step removed from full-communism, which appears disturbingly popular with the electorate. And while they are not entirely responsible for the desecration of the Scottish landscapes with windmills, they seem quite happy with it and argue for more. What kind of a Scot would wish to ruin their beautiful country in this manner, and for no long term gain?

TRM
Reply to  HotScot
November 30, 2017 8:36 am

Sterling and Maxwell are my 2 favourites 🙂

Reply to  TRM
November 30, 2017 10:43 am

TRM

You’ll like this one.

The pushrod internal combustion engine was invented by David Dunbar Buick, yep, the founder of Buick cars.

Reply to  HotScot
November 30, 2017 10:27 am

michael hart

Sadly, Scotland has always been a socialist stronghold, which is why labour in England were so devastated when they crashed up there in the last election, principally caused by the independence movement. Traditional labour voters saw the SNP as socialists with the additional ‘benefit’ of promised independence and tons of money from North Sea Oil.

Neither independence nor oil materialised as the indy vote was defeated, and the oil price crashed shortly after, although it was so predictable it was criminal of the SNP not to warn voters it was inevitable.

However, the SNP’s days are numbered. They are haemorrhaging votes because they have delivered none of their promises, they have woefully mis managed the health service, education and they will have to be bailed out (yet again) when the renewables scam goes tits up.

Yet again, my gullible brethren seduced by the filthy luca from energy that has done nothing but cost them money for generations.

StephenP
Reply to  HotScot
November 30, 2017 10:47 am

How many of these Scots got the h*** out of Scotland when they were doing their major work?

Thomas
Reply to  DeLoss McKnight
November 29, 2017 8:38 pm

“religious construction.”

Not “reconstruction.”

But you’re point is well taken, good sir.

: )

DeLoss McKnight
Reply to  Thomas
November 29, 2017 9:51 pm

Thomas, I don’t dispute your correction. My source was a newspaper article in the Kansas City Star from November 20, 1916. I went back and checked and it used the word “reconstruction”. However, that paper was reprinting the article from the London Chronicle, which in turn was based on an article written by Doyle in the magazine (?) Light. Plenty of opportunity there to misquote Hill’s original statement. It will be fascinating to see if Climate Change ends up in the dustbin of history similar to Spiritualism or Eugenics.

Reply to  Thomas
November 30, 2017 12:45 am

DeLoss McKnight

“It will be fascinating to see if Climate Change ends up in the dustbin of history similar to Spiritualism or Eugenics.”

It will. Children at primary school will snigger at the foolishness of those believing CO2 was considered the control knob of climate.

ripshin
Editor
Reply to  DeLoss McKnight
November 30, 2017 7:20 am

It’s funny to me that there are certain cultural/ethnic heritages that are widely viewed quite amicably: scots, irish, australian. At least, in all the circles I’ve run in during my life have universally had fond thoughts for these.

Unfortunately for me, my main ethnic heritage is basically the barbarians you see getting cut down by Maximus and the Romans at the beginning of Gladiator. Not really a lot of universal love right now for this ethnicity.

rip

vukcevic
November 29, 2017 1:24 pm

one day whole of this lot might go off, followed by a global mass extinction with a new Indonesia subcontinent appearing s/ccomment image

vukcevic
Reply to  Eric Worrall
November 29, 2017 3:19 pm

thanks

Reply to  vukcevic
November 29, 2017 4:30 pm

vukcevic

The greens will undoubtedly suggest ‘Whack a mole’ as a solution.

John of Cloverdale WA
Reply to  vukcevic
November 29, 2017 5:03 pm

A number of biggies I know of: Toba ?75,000 BP; Krakatoa ?416 & 1883; Rinjani 1257, and; Tambora 1815.
And we are seriously considering (well some idiots are) climate engineering when a natural event will stuff that up.

TRM
Reply to  vukcevic
November 30, 2017 8:43 am

No Toba? It has been quiet for 74,000 years and that’s a good thing. Waking big daddy is not something I want. We had enough fun with little children Krakatau & Tambora.

Bobburban
Reply to  vukcevic
December 4, 2017 6:10 am

These are just the sub-aerial volcanoes … There are many, many more beneath sea level …

[But the mods remain worried about all those aerial volcanoes getting blown around by the trade winds and westerlies …. It makes drawing them on a map very difficult. .mod]

ClimateOtter
November 29, 2017 1:24 pm

I suspect a good number of nations will find they suddenly need to be spending on getting through the cold, and the Hell with spending on climate-change mitigation (ie, lining their pockets at the expense of their people)

Lance Wallace
November 29, 2017 1:26 pm

The previous WUWT post referred to two articles by John Christy in 1994 and 2017 in which he was able to separate the volcanic effect from other effects on temperature–so presumably the same could be done for the Bali volcano if it erupts sufficiently strongly to match Pinatubo

Reply to  Lance Wallace
November 29, 2017 4:31 pm

Lance Wallace

two chances. None and *snip* all.

(profanity with an * in place of a letter is still profanity. 1st warning — Mod)

Reply to  HotScot
November 30, 2017 6:27 am

Apologies mod.

None and sod all.

Joel O'Bryan
November 29, 2017 1:26 pm

Colose’s Climate science really has gone Full Voodoo. Now they pray to a volcano god to save them from the lurking, evil CO2 demon.

Next up… Need more virgins. Film at 11.

1saveenergy
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 29, 2017 2:35 pm

“Need more virgins.”
Good luck with finding sufficient !

Reply to  1saveenergy
November 29, 2017 4:33 pm

1saveenergy

Allah has many Effendi.

Resourceguy
November 29, 2017 1:33 pm

Will they add Bali to the meetings junket schedule?

John Cooknell
November 29, 2017 1:34 pm

All that air pollution should not be allowed!

Nick Stokes
November 29, 2017 1:50 pm

“Latest Excuse for the Global Warming Pause: The Bali Volcano”
Lame. We haven’t even had an eruption yet. Let alone any cooling. Let alone any “excuses”.

It’s just someone talking about how big an eruption needs to be to affect climate. And a British tabloid journalist doing what they do.

Latitude
Reply to  Nick Stokes
November 29, 2017 1:59 pm

odd isn’t it?…..0.2 degrees of warming is going to kill us all…..and 0.2 degrees of cooling is a bad thing

Nick Stokes
Reply to  Latitude
November 29, 2017 2:09 pm

Nobody said either of those.

Latitude
Reply to  Latitude
November 29, 2017 2:22 pm

I must have misread the title……… NASA say Mount Agung could plunge earth into ice age

Nick Stokes
Reply to  Latitude
November 29, 2017 3:14 pm

Well, you mis-read something. That doesn’t correspond to either of what you said. But it’s an Express headline. No relation to anything, really. Certainly not to anything a scientist said.

Latitude
Reply to  Latitude
November 29, 2017 3:46 pm

Nick…is that straw your grasping right out of reach?…..on one thinks an ice age is a good thing

Nick Stokes
Reply to  Latitude
November 29, 2017 4:40 pm

No one thinks 0.2°C of cooling is an Ice Age. Except for a tabloid editor beating up a story.

Latitude
Reply to  Latitude
November 29, 2017 4:46 pm

LOL…and that’s all I said
You not this dense…what’s going on?

Thomas
Reply to  Latitude
November 29, 2017 8:46 pm

Stokes got this one right.

Bryan A
Reply to  Nick Stokes
November 29, 2017 2:08 pm

When has Climate ever been STABLE?
In the history of the world, it never has happened.
Man cannot make it so.
Mann cannot make it so either!!

Sara
Reply to  Nick Stokes
November 29, 2017 4:10 pm

I guess Nick Stokes never heard of Pinatubo’s eruption, how the volume of gas and ash dropped the global mean temperature by about 1.0F (0.6C), a measurable cooling of the Earth’s surface for a period of almost two years.

Maybe that was before his time. Oh, well!

Nick Stokes
Reply to  Sara
November 29, 2017 4:30 pm

How does that make any sense? Of course volcanoes have caused cooling. But this article claims that someone is using cooling following Agung as an “excuse” when neither the eruption, nor the cooling, have happened. Let alone anyone using it to make “excuses”.

AndyG55
Reply to  Sara
November 30, 2017 2:22 am

Its the “Precautionary Principle”, Nick.

They KNOW a cooling trend is coming.. and are trying to invent excuses.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
November 29, 2017 4:35 pm

Stokes

All of a sudden it’s the media’s fault.

Nick Stokes
Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2017 4:38 pm

Of course it is. It’s an Express headline with no underlying reality. Nothing new there.

AndyG55
Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2017 4:50 pm

“with no underlying reality”

You mean like AGW with or without a “C”

Fact is, we are only slightly above the coldest period in 10,000 years.

Warming would still help many places, since it would occur in the colder regions of the world.
Maybe even open the Arctic up for commerce for more than a few weeks each year.
Certainly open may regions up for food production.

Cooling would cause major problems, such as an over-abundance of Arctic sea ice (already in the top 10% of Holocene extents). Crop production would suffer as marginal regions become cooler.

REALITY, Nick.

Why do you support the ugly, anti-human, anti-science AGW Agenda, Nick ?

Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2017 5:13 pm

AndyG55

“Why do you support the ugly, anti-human, anti-science AGW Agenda, Nick ?”

You’re beating on a locked door.

lewispbuckingham
Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2017 5:20 pm

Speaking to someone who flies in at least weekly, she says’ its a beat up’.
The latest ‘smart traveller’ advice is precautionary.
https://mail.iinet.net.au/index.php/mail

Just like climate, we can’t predict the temperature with models, and can’t predict the scope or time of volcanic eruption.

AndyG55
Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2017 7:45 pm

He either gets PAID to do it..

…. or he has some link to someone he can’t allow himself to upset by telling the truth.

Or maybe he really wants the destruction of western civilisation (an aim clearly stated by several AGW priests and priestesses)….. then global totalitarian government .. !!

Reply to  Nick Stokes
November 29, 2017 9:08 pm

Tell us, Nick, what you think of Zeke Hausfather? That was the source for the tabloid journalist.

Nick Stokes
Reply to  Writing Observer
November 29, 2017 9:50 pm

“what you think of Zeke Hausfather?”
Zeke is a fine scientist. So what is he quoted as saying?
“Climate researcher Zeke Hausfather said: “This projection, which is based on the historical relationship between volcanic eruptions and temperature, suggests that an Agung eruption would reduce global temperatures between 0.1C to 0.2C in period from 2018 to 2020.””

So are you saying that is the basis for the headline:
“NASA say Mount Agung could plunge earth into ice age”?
Zeke isn’t NASA. But there is even less basis for the headline in what Chris Colose said.

Given the outright lie that is the heading, I don’t have much confidence that Zeke was quoted correctly. But it is true that on some assumptions about a possible eruption, the cooling quoted could occur. That’s how it goes – journalists wants story, rings Zeke, asks what might happen if Agung has big eruption, goes to press with conditionals stripped, then tabloid sub adds headline – Scientists predicts Ice Age!

Now where have I heard that before?

Reply to  Writing Observer
December 1, 2017 5:04 pm

Indeed, the journalist in question never contacted me. They just cribbed a figure and a line from my CarbonBrief article from a month ago: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-could-agung-volcano-bali-affect-global-temperature
They conveniently ignored the fact that 1) the model in question assumed an eruption this year would be equal in size to the 1963 one (which is not the case so far), and 2) that a 0.1-0.2C drop in temperatures would take us back to the frigid days of 2014, hardly an Ice Age…

Reply to  Zeke Hausfather
December 1, 2017 10:45 pm

So… “Fakier” news, then. Thank you. (Now to tell the spell-checker “is so a word.” Although the suggested “flakier” would work, too.)

Old44
Reply to  Nick Stokes
November 30, 2017 2:42 am
Nick Stokes
Reply to  Old44
November 30, 2017 2:54 am

“From the gospel at the ABC”
Yes, but notice the difference:
Express:
“NASA say Mount Agung could plunge earth into ice age”
WUWT
“A NASA Scientist is claiming that if Mount Agung in Bali erupts, it could plunge the world into a cold period for several years.”
ABC:
“Bali volcano: Here’s why the Earth will get a little cooler after Mount Agung erupts

But don’t get too excited, it will far from reverse the effects of global warming.

So will you notice the difference?
No. If Mount Agung behaves as it did in 1963 — which it’s widely expected to — you won’t feel a thing.”

AndyG55
Reply to  Old44
November 30, 2017 3:04 am

“it will far from reverse the effects of global warming.”

Notice the difference.????

Yep, the ABC follow the scam, almost to the letter……. obligatory mention of the AGW farce.

Pray tell, apart from a highly beneficial 1ºC or so warming out of the COLDEST period in 10,000 years

...what are the effects of so-called “global warming”

Oh wait there.. what happened to “climate change” ??

SO HARD to keep a LIE going , hey !!

Old44
Reply to  Old44
November 30, 2017 10:12 am

Nick Stokes:
The climate “scientists” are doing what they have been doing for 40 years and that is to establish an addional scenario that covers them no matter what changes may or may not occur.
That is why Australia has full dams and $50 billion worth of desalinisation plants built on the say-so of a money hungry, subsidy exploiting conman.

Jimmy Haigh
November 29, 2017 2:02 pm

I can see a book in the future: “Global Warming. What Happened?”.

Bill J
November 29, 2017 2:05 pm

Wow talk about Fake News! The headline from the article is completely misleading. The important quote is near the end of the article:

“This projection, which is based on the historical relationship between volcanic eruptions and temperature, suggests that an Agung eruption would reduce global temperatures between 0.1C to 0.2C in period from 2018 to 2020.”

An ice age certainly isn’t triggered by a 0.2C drop in global temperature for a couple of years. Wow talk about bad reporting or sensationalist headlines!

Of course the point of this post is correct – any continuation of the pause and models running too warm will certainly be blamed on the volcanic eruption. AKA natural variability.

Nick Stokes
Reply to  Bill J
November 29, 2017 2:12 pm

“The headline from the article is completely misleading. “
What do you expect from the Express?

vukcevic
Reply to  Nick Stokes
November 29, 2017 3:04 pm

It has been politically a ‘down day’ for the British government supporting press, any however unlikely global disaster story is a welcome relief.
Another tabloid (daily mail) has an equally alarming article
A ‘doomsday’ solar storm could devastate Earth at any moment

with the most ridiculous idea put forward to protect the planet: “To prevent such a catastrophe, scientists have proposed a plan to build a massive ‘magnetic deflector’ that would sit like a shield between Earth and the sun, diverting the harmful emissions away from our planet.”

F. Leghorn
Reply to  Nick Stokes
November 29, 2017 3:17 pm

vukcevic on November 29, 2017 at 3:04 pm

It would deflect enough sunlight to cure global warming too. Win-win (if you believe humans are a plague on Gaia)

Sara
Reply to  Nick Stokes
November 29, 2017 4:11 pm

Doomsday solar storm? At any moment? Well, then, I’d better get ready!! Thanks Vukcevic!

Reply to  Nick Stokes
November 29, 2017 4:39 pm

Stokes

““The headline from the article is completely misleading. “
What do you expect from the Express?”

You’re sounding really hysterical.

Now you know what it feels like to be on the receiving end of the media.

JohnKnight
Reply to  Bill J
November 29, 2017 2:15 pm

I suspect there is an element of cover for the potential drop in temps due to the solar minimum situation . . also natural, but a place alarmists really don’t want to go, me thinks.

TA
November 29, 2017 2:25 pm

Let’s hope the volcano settles down and doesn’t give the Alarmists another excuse for why their predictions are not coming true.

A big volcanic eruption would give rise to another decade of CAGW propaganda and lies.

Robertvd
November 29, 2017 2:30 pm

Mount Rinjani Indonesia

The Rinjani caldera-forming eruption is thought to have occurred in the 13th century. Dated to “late spring or summer of 1257,” this 1257 Samalas eruption is now considered the likely source of high concentrations of sulfur found in widely dispersed ice core samples and may have been “the most powerful volcanic blast since humans learned to write.”[21][22] The massive eruption may have triggered an episode of global cooling and failed harvests.[23] Before this eruption, the Segara Anak caldera was a volcanic mountaiun named Samalas, which was higher than Rinjani.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rinjani

BoyfromTottenham
November 29, 2017 2:46 pm

FUD, FUD, FUD, FUD…

Resourceguy
November 29, 2017 2:50 pm

So this is like a prequel excuse?

I Came I Saw I Left
November 29, 2017 3:40 pm

They would just use it as a call for more climate action. This is one of the persons arrested for turning off the Canada/US pipeline.

https://twitter.com/enjohnston/status/935338675142930432

Reply to  I Came I Saw I Left
November 29, 2017 4:42 pm

I Came I Saw I Left

Evidently it’s not sciences fault now, it’s God’s.

My, how the worm turns.

JohnKnight
Reply to  I Came I Saw I Left
November 29, 2017 5:15 pm

“Not much—but if it happens, it’s like God giving us a tiny do-over.”

He can just turn down the temps if He wants it cooler . . that’s why we call Him God ; ) . . But hearing climate alarmists speaking of volcanic eruptions as a wonderful blessing is a bit worrisome to me . . That can be arranged by humans . .

London247
November 29, 2017 4:02 pm

I have noticed in the last six months or so increasing activity in the form of earthquakes and volcanic activity all around the Pacific plate.
Hopefully it will not occur soon but a couple of major earthquakes and eruptions will put in perspective the ability of mankind to control the planet.
If Vesuvius were to erupt I would anticipate Europe-wide chaos.

Sara
Reply to  London247
November 29, 2017 4:17 pm

The last six months? I don’t mean to be snide here, but this “increased” activity has been going on around the Pacific since before the 12/26/2004 quake at Banda Aceh. This eruption is only one release of one pressure valve by Agung.

Etna’s been erupting at a higher than usual volume for several months now. Santorini’s caldera is seeing sub-surface activity, too. It’s not just the so-called Ring of Fire. What about the ramp up of quakes and volcanism all along the South American coast and up through Central America, never mind the Caribbean?

Nick Stokes
Reply to  Sara
November 29, 2017 4:34 pm

“It’s not just the so-called Ring of Fire. What about the ramp up of quakes and volcanism all along the South American coast and up through Central America, never mind the Caribbean?”
So where was that Ring of Fire again? But this all sounds, well, alarmist. Remember Pinatubo?

Reply to  Sara
November 29, 2017 4:53 pm

Stokes

On the back foot now are we? Accusing sceptics of alarmism?

Sorry, but the alarmist boat has long since sailed and you were first aboard it.

This event just doesn’t suit your narrative, so you start slinging around yet more unjustified accusations.

This type of event was inevitable, who knows, there might be more in quick succession, or this single event might be enough to utterly wreck your contention of man made CO2 CAGW being that it coincides with the inconvenient truth of a La Niña.

Tragically you don’t recognise the real threat of global cooling Vs the imagined, proven, survivable conditions of global warming.

London247
Reply to  Sara
November 29, 2017 5:06 pm

Sara, I don’t think you are being snide. And I am probably just guilty of the human frailty of only remembering the most recent events. Specifically Rinjani, Auckland earthquake, Agung, increased tremors along the San Andreas, earthquakes in the Aleutians. And those I can just remember off the top of my head. Meanwhile in the Med the Phygrian Fields are showing increased activity. And all this in the last six months. I happily accept your more detailed and informed knowledge. But when a layman like me notices increased activity, it is beginning to become concerning.

LdB
Reply to  Sara
November 29, 2017 6:14 pm

There are 35 eruptions from different active volcanos a year and they all have monitoring and you can watch most live as they have webcams
http://earthquakes.volcanodiscovery.com/

The funny part is you can see the CAGW alarmism trend in this area as well. Do a search on “is volcanic activity around world increasing” you will get competing claims from the rate is at the low end of normal to the we are all going to die predictions.

At the upper end you will find the CAGW doomsday believers with “Eruptions caused by climate change” and it is all your fault and you need to pay 🙂

Old44
Reply to  Sara
November 30, 2017 10:54 am

What cocern LONDON?
It is called continental drift, go back into the recent past with the massive Alaskan Earthquake, Mt St Helen, San Francisco the Ring of Fire, the 1,000,000 submarine volcanoes very few of which were caused by elevated CO2 levels.

November 29, 2017 4:58 pm

Stokes

Sorry, that didn’t sound right, let me rephrase it.

Tragically you don’t recognise the real threat of global cooling Vs imaginatively ‘modelled’, unsurvivable CAGW condition, proven as not only survivable, but hugely beneficial to mankind.

Rhoda R
Reply to  Eric Worrall
November 29, 2017 6:58 pm

I wonder how much impact that CO2 starvation had on the extinction of much of the mega fauna of the time.

tony mcleod
Reply to  Eric Worrall
November 29, 2017 9:05 pm

I wonder how much impact that CO2 starvation was favourable for the evolution of Pleistescine species like our own?

Editor
Reply to  Eric Worrall
November 29, 2017 9:18 pm

Tony McLeod, didn’t read the link:

“Recent Cambridge University studies conclude that only about 100,000 humans were left alive worldwide when the current interglacial warming mercifully began.”

Come on lift up your debate!

tony mcleod
Reply to  Eric Worrall
November 29, 2017 11:30 pm

I think the answer is yes. The Pleistescine has proven ideal for our species.

AndyG55
Reply to  Eric Worrall
November 30, 2017 2:11 am

McClod thinks 100,000 is ideal for our species.

One can fervently glad that him and his ilk were not part of those 100,000..

…. or the human species would have cease to exist due to idiocy !

Joel O'Bryan
November 29, 2017 5:49 pm

Meanwhile, the cold wave from Siberia is building and will find its way to the Western hemisphere in about a month.
https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2017-11-28-siberia-colder-than-minus-60-degrees-in-november

AndyG55
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 29, 2017 7:54 pm

Poor Siberia, they nearly always seem to catch the cold part of the wobbly jet stream.

But NOBODY cares about them freezing their butts off…

Arctic sea ice is much more important.

SAMURAI
November 29, 2017 7:18 pm

This is right out of the Leftist playbook…

Large volcanic eruptions are very common. There were almost 70 large volcanic eruptions (VEI >4) in the 20th Century; one every 18 months or so:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_large_volcanic_eruptions_of_the_20th_century

The last “Colossal eruption” (VEI 6: >10 KM^3 ejecta) was Pinatubo in 1991 and these occur every 30 years or so. (3 occurred in the 19th century and 3 in the 20th century).

The last time Agung erupted in 1963, it was a VEI 5: about 8 KM^3 ejecta. VEI 5s are quite common of which we had 8 in the 20th century, in addition to 3 x VEI 6 for an average of 1 VEI 5+ every 10 years or so…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index

Global cooling from Large volcanic eruptions (VEI 5+) are very short lived; about 2~3 years. Once the ejecta is removed from the atmosphere by gravity and rain, global temps snap back to where they were prior to the volcanic event. Just another example that climate is not very sensitive and has built-in equilibrium mechanisms… Leftists’ notion of run-away negative or positive feedback loops is folly.

This century’s volcanic activity will likely be about the same as the previous 2 centuries, but since CAGW is on the verge of official disconfirmation, normal volcanic activity will be Leftists’ major excuse to explain why gloooooobal waaaaarming has stopped, despite record amounts of manmade CO2 emissions and average volcanic activity…

Leftists are so predictable..

Asp
November 29, 2017 7:41 pm

Nowhere, whether in the warmist establishment, or a corporate environment, will there ever be an overnight change of view with respect to a cherished paradigm, even if the evidence to the contrary is inescapable. There will first be the creation of ‘wiggle room’, which will be expanded over time to allow a gracious retreat without undue loss of face by the various icons in that respective arena.
I would be interesting to study the reversal that apparently happened in the scientific world when the mainstream opinion of global cooling in the 70’s changed to global warming over a decade or two.
As such, I see articles suggesting that volcanic activity may temporarily hide the ‘real’ trend in global warming as a healthy sign that someone is looking for serious wiggle room. If not Gunung Agung, the impending Solar Minimum will help, if not some another volcano from one of the many tectonically active regions.
In another 5 years time, global cooling will be cool again, and academia will abound with recent converts.

Ptolemy2
November 29, 2017 7:54 pm

Mt St Helens (1980) erupted 3 km3.
It killed a handful of vulcanologists.
Mt Toba (70 kya) erupted 3000 km3.
It nearly extincted the human race.

Mt Agung will be somewhere on that scale depending on volume of ash.

peanut gallery
Reply to  Ptolemy2
November 29, 2017 9:25 pm

It hasn’t even passed 0.1 cubic km yet.

MarkW
Reply to  peanut gallery
November 30, 2017 12:03 pm

We are still in the early stages of this eruption.

Lurking
Reply to  peanut gallery
November 30, 2017 6:52 pm

Current mass ejection rate is at about 1.93m³/s for a FL180 plume. It’s most prolific rate was 95.58 m³/s back on 26 Nov. Yeah, it could go bad in a big way, but right now it’s being pretty sedate about it. Almost like it doesn’t have it’s heart in it.

November 29, 2017 8:45 pm

Posted Monday.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/11/25/is-climate-chaotic-or-cyclical-the-transition-from-uniformitarianism-to-catastrophism/comment-page-1/#comment-2678822

Mt. Agung is not yet a big eruption – as reported here 27 Nov.
http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-42133563/mt-agung-is-large-bali-volcano-eruption-inevitable

The 1963–64 eruption of Mt. Agung was VEI5.
The 1982 eruption of El Chichon was VEI5.
The 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo was VEI6, roughly an order of magnitude higher.
I suggest that the eruptions of both El Chichon and Pinatubo had significant temporary global cooling effects – I have less data for Agung 1963, but it is probable that some global cooling was also caused then.

November 29, 2017 9:14 pm

Reblogged this on Climatism and commented:
“The huge Bali Agung volcano has erupted at a convenient time for climate scientists. If the volcano properly blows its top, it buys them a few more years to excuse their failed climate predictions.”

And, recalibrate the busted UN CMIP5 models for their newly embraced “natural variation” ‘phenomenon’!

More on the “pause” here:
https://climatism.wordpress.com/2017/11/23/the-great-global-warming-pause/

peanut gallery
November 29, 2017 9:24 pm

Funny that. The most energetic plume that it has had was only about halfway to the tropopause. At its current rate, this mediocre eruption may reach VEI 4 by Jan 2018. Eyafallajokull was 25 times larger so far.

[But Iceland’s volcano was harder to spell. .mod]

ren
November 30, 2017 12:24 am

At any moment there may be a very strong eruption. This may happen on December 4th during a geomagnetic storm.
http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00949/0jzgbzmk66tv.png

ripparoo
November 30, 2017 1:29 am

The IPCC need a new sub committee to stop Volcanoes erupting.

MarkW
Reply to  ripparoo
November 30, 2017 12:03 pm

We can get congress to pass a law against eruptions.

AndyG55
November 30, 2017 2:09 am

The climate glitterati KNOW that there is a cooling trend coming.

It will be fun to watch them trying to come up with excuse after excuse.

Shoot them down every time.

DO NOT allow them to get away with squirming and worming out of the deep hole they have dug for themselves.

Philip Schaeffer
Reply to  AndyG55
December 1, 2017 10:54 pm

Lol, AndyG55 in a decade from now..

“I’m not wrong, the cooling trend is just around the corner!”

Earthling2
November 30, 2017 2:10 am

We should really be thinking about the bit of slight warming we have had the last century and a half since the end of the little ice age and recognize and embrace the warming as an insurance policy against a truly catastrophic cooling event. If there is a general crop failure in the northern hemisphere because of an extreme chaos event for more than a year, then 7.5 billion people are are at risk of starvation with little to eat. Now, that is truly catastrophic what a large stratovolcano can do to the weather/climate record.

November 30, 2017 5:12 am

Enough of all this climate doom and gloom!

“The Complete Scottish Bagpipe Collection”
on iTunes ain’t bad.

brians356
Reply to  AWM907 (@AWM9071)
November 30, 2017 11:35 am

You chaps ever read the “McAuslan” short stories by George MacDonald Fraser (yes, of “Flashman” fame)? Some good “pipey” aspects to them, apart from being brilliantly-written humour about life in a post-war Scottish regiment.

paqyfelyc
November 30, 2017 5:50 am

well, if such a small eruption is enough to REVERSE global warming, why did we got worried about warming in the first place?

Editor
November 30, 2017 9:35 am

Has it ever occured to anybody that VOLCANOES ARE ALWAYS ERUPTING SOMEWHERE ON EARTH? This should be allowed for, and incorporated into climate models. If you leave out important data, your model will go haywire.

beng135
November 30, 2017 11:18 am

That volcano looks like it’s reducing the sunlight as much as a fair-sized cloud…..

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