Guest essay by Eric Worrall
A NASA Scientist is claiming that if Mount Agung in Bali erupts, it could plunge the world into a cold period for several years.
Bali volcano REVERSE global warming: NASA say Mount Agung could plunge earth into ice age
BALI’S volcano eruption could plunge the earth into a prolonged cold spell as scientists warn Mount Agung explosion could reverse global climate change for up to five years.
By VICKIIE OLIPHANT
PUBLISHED: 13:26, Wed, Nov 29, 2017 | UPDATED: 16:56, Wed, Nov 29, 2017
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And the result will be in a reverse of global warming, as the planet’s temperatures cool instead of increasing as projected.
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NASA climate scientist Chris Colose said: “To have a notable climate impact, there needs to be an explosive enough eruption (to get material in the stratosphere) and a sulphur-rich eruption (the SO2 converts to sulphate aerosol, which is what radiatively matters).
“If these conditions are met, the eruption cools the surface/troposphere and warms the stratosphere, the opposite of both patterns associated with CO2 increases. But both are very short-lived (~years).”
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The 1963 eruption was not exceptional in volume of ash produced, according to Mr Colose, but “somewhat unique in sulphur released”.
He said: “For volcanoes to do anything to climate you need a lot of SO2 released and a high enough plume for that SO2 to get into the stratosphere.
“The SO2 particles have sizes comparable to a visible wavelength and are strongly scattering to incoming sunlight, cooling the planet
“If a similar SO2 release occurred, could cool planet for 1-2 years, and then a recovery.”
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The huge Bali Agung volcano has erupted at a convenient time for climate scientists. If the volcano properly blows its top, it buys them a few more years to excuse their failed climate predictions.
Nowhere, whether in the warmist establishment, or a corporate environment, will there ever be an overnight change of view with respect to a cherished paradigm, even if the evidence to the contrary is inescapable. There will first be the creation of ‘wiggle room’, which will be expanded over time to allow a gracious retreat without undue loss of face by the various icons in that respective arena.
I would be interesting to study the reversal that apparently happened in the scientific world when the mainstream opinion of global cooling in the 70’s changed to global warming over a decade or two.
As such, I see articles suggesting that volcanic activity may temporarily hide the ‘real’ trend in global warming as a healthy sign that someone is looking for serious wiggle room. If not Gunung Agung, the impending Solar Minimum will help, if not some another volcano from one of the many tectonically active regions.
In another 5 years time, global cooling will be cool again, and academia will abound with recent converts.
Mt St Helens (1980) erupted 3 km3.
It killed a handful of vulcanologists.
Mt Toba (70 kya) erupted 3000 km3.
It nearly extincted the human race.
Mt Agung will be somewhere on that scale depending on volume of ash.
It hasn’t even passed 0.1 cubic km yet.
We are still in the early stages of this eruption.
Current mass ejection rate is at about 1.93m³/s for a FL180 plume. It’s most prolific rate was 95.58 m³/s back on 26 Nov. Yeah, it could go bad in a big way, but right now it’s being pretty sedate about it. Almost like it doesn’t have it’s heart in it.
Posted Monday.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/11/25/is-climate-chaotic-or-cyclical-the-transition-from-uniformitarianism-to-catastrophism/comment-page-1/#comment-2678822
Mt. Agung is not yet a big eruption – as reported here 27 Nov.
http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-42133563/mt-agung-is-large-bali-volcano-eruption-inevitable
The 1963–64 eruption of Mt. Agung was VEI5.
The 1982 eruption of El Chichon was VEI5.
The 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo was VEI6, roughly an order of magnitude higher.
I suggest that the eruptions of both El Chichon and Pinatubo had significant temporary global cooling effects – I have less data for Agung 1963, but it is probable that some global cooling was also caused then.
Reblogged this on Climatism and commented:
“The huge Bali Agung volcano has erupted at a convenient time for climate scientists. If the volcano properly blows its top, it buys them a few more years to excuse their failed climate predictions.”
And, recalibrate the busted UN CMIP5 models for their newly embraced “natural variation” ‘phenomenon’!
More on the “pause” here:
https://climatism.wordpress.com/2017/11/23/the-great-global-warming-pause/
Funny that. The most energetic plume that it has had was only about halfway to the tropopause. At its current rate, this mediocre eruption may reach VEI 4 by Jan 2018. Eyafallajokull was 25 times larger so far.
[But Iceland’s volcano was harder to spell. .mod]
At any moment there may be a very strong eruption. This may happen on December 4th during a geomagnetic storm.
http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00949/0jzgbzmk66tv.png
The IPCC need a new sub committee to stop Volcanoes erupting.
We can get congress to pass a law against eruptions.
The climate glitterati KNOW that there is a cooling trend coming.
It will be fun to watch them trying to come up with excuse after excuse.
Shoot them down every time.
DO NOT allow them to get away with squirming and worming out of the deep hole they have dug for themselves.
Lol, AndyG55 in a decade from now..
“I’m not wrong, the cooling trend is just around the corner!”
We should really be thinking about the bit of slight warming we have had the last century and a half since the end of the little ice age and recognize and embrace the warming as an insurance policy against a truly catastrophic cooling event. If there is a general crop failure in the northern hemisphere because of an extreme chaos event for more than a year, then 7.5 billion people are are at risk of starvation with little to eat. Now, that is truly catastrophic what a large stratovolcano can do to the weather/climate record.
Enough of all this climate doom and gloom!
“The Complete Scottish Bagpipe Collection”
on iTunes ain’t bad.
You chaps ever read the “McAuslan” short stories by George MacDonald Fraser (yes, of “Flashman” fame)? Some good “pipey” aspects to them, apart from being brilliantly-written humour about life in a post-war Scottish regiment.
well, if such a small eruption is enough to REVERSE global warming, why did we got worried about warming in the first place?
Has it ever occured to anybody that VOLCANOES ARE ALWAYS ERUPTING SOMEWHERE ON EARTH? This should be allowed for, and incorporated into climate models. If you leave out important data, your model will go haywire.
That volcano looks like it’s reducing the sunlight as much as a fair-sized cloud…..