Claim: Climate will drive more Refugees into Europe

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Greens pushing the tired climate refugee myth is old news – but this time they inadvertently made the case for tighter border security.

Climate change ‘will create world’s biggest refugee crisis’

Experts warn refugees could number tens of millions in the next decade, and call for a new legal framework to protect the most vulnerable

Tens of millions of people will be forced from their homes by climate change in the next decade, creating the biggest refugee crisis the world has ever seen, according to a new report.

“If Europe thinks they have a problem with migration today … wait 20 years,” said retired US military corps brigadier general Stephen Cheney. “See what happens when climate change drives people out of Africa – the Sahel [sub-Saharan area] especially – and we’re talking now not just one or two million, but 10 or 20 [million]. They are not going to south Africa, they are going across the Mediterranean.”

Sir David King, the former chief scientific adviser to the UK government, told the EJF: “What we are talking about here is an existential threat to our civilisation in the longer term. In the short term, it carries all sorts of risks as well and it requires a human response on a scale that has never been achieved before.”

“Climate change is the the unpredictable ingredient that, when added to existing social, economic and political tensions, has the potential to ignite violence and conflict with disastrous consequences,” said EJF executive director, Steve Trent.

“In our rapidly changing world climate change – and its potential to trigger both violent conflict and mass migration – needs to be considered as an urgent priority for policymakers and business leaders alike.”

Read more:

The core argument posed by the Environmental Justice Foundation, whose report The Guardian quotes;

… Mass displacement caused by climate change can bring disparate communities with different ethnicities, religious or other cultural beliefs and identities into contact, further driving the potential for conflict. Violence may follow, itself becoming a driver of migration. In Syria, some 1.3-1.5 million people were on the move from drought-stricken regions before a single gunshot was red. This report looks at the prolonged drought that gave the context for the outbreak of Syria’s bloody conflict that has now entered its seventh year. Whilst no-one would assert that climate change was the sole cause of conflict in Syria or elsewhere, it is increasingly viewed as a ‘threat multiplier’, increasing the likelihood of violent conflict arising from pre-existing and complex interactions between political, economic, religious and ethnic forces. …

Read more:

Leaving aside the evidence that anthropogenic CO2 is greening the world’s deserts, making life easier for poor people farming marginal land, lets assume for a moment The Guardian and EJF are right – that mass migration leads to conflict.

Surely the first step to addressing this crisis would be to tighten border security?

The West is generous and wealthy, but we will be in no position to help anyone if our own societies are torn apart by conflict, which the EJF believes is more likely when we bring disparate communities with different ethnicities, religious or other cultural beliefs and identities into contact.

Of course, there are other reasons for mass migration than climate.

In my opinion Hollywood is likely a far greater driver of mass migration than climate change. The few times I have visited poor countries, everyone I met said they wanted to move to the USA. They were all fans of US sitcoms, utterly entranced by the glamorous fantasy lifestyle they saw every day on TV, of people living in clean houses with plenty to eat, nice cars, lots of time to socialise, and nobody working very hard.

As life gradually improves in desperately poor countries, more poor people will have access to US TV programmes, and more people will be tempted by the utopian sitcom lifestyle they see every day on their television sets.

0 0 votes
Article Rating
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Henning Nielsen
November 2, 2017 5:10 pm

“Climate change is the the unpredictable ingredient…”

Yeah, especially as to its man-made origin and potential for disaster.

Bryan A
Reply to  Henning Nielsen
November 2, 2017 8:00 pm

Then there is this

The West is generous and wealthy, but we will be in no position to help anyone if our own societies are torn apart by conflict, which the EJF believes is more likely when we bring disparate communities with different ethnicities, religious or other cultural beliefs and identities into contact

Oh wait, isn’t that the essence of New York, New York, or Los Angeles, Ca. even of the entire USA?
The only thing that brews trouble in any country or peer group is differential intolerance.

Reply to  Henning Nielsen
November 2, 2017 9:19 pm
November 2, 2017 5:11 pm

Most, if not all, of the Middle Eastern refugees were caused by political strife, not climate change. Apart from the minor little fact that the population boom in Syria was governmental policy, it is politics (and religion, which is much the same thing there) all the way down.

Reply to  Tom Halla
November 2, 2017 7:35 pm

Actually most of the Muslim immigration has been part of a plan to invade Europe, the Kalergi Plan. The dominantly young men invading Europe were directed by their Imams to go and rape Europe, impregnate the women, and take over Europe. Climate has nothing to do with this plan and never will.

Paul Penrose
Reply to  higley7
November 2, 2017 8:27 pm

Take your tinfoil hat and religious/racial intolerance crap someplace else. We don’t want it here. Or better yet, grow up and stop hating.

Reply to  higley7
November 3, 2017 12:11 am

@ higley7.
Exactly like the European Christians were directed by their bishops to ‘conquer the world for god’ (but bring the spoils back for the church, kings & bishops).
Climate had nothing to do with that plan either.

You need to read history, see what ‘Christians’ did around the world (rape, pillage, genocide) in the name of Jesus & the so called ‘god of love’.

Paul said “grow up and stop hating” absolutely; As you mature, you’ll find all the hate you have will come back onto you…it’s called ‘karma’.

Reply to  higley7
November 3, 2017 12:20 am

Penrose: I agree with you (this is almost off-topic, unsourced, generalized, and contains hate keywords)… if you mention “the” Kalergi Plan, it might mean you have been spending too much time on tin-foil sites.

Reply to  higley7
November 3, 2017 12:23 am

You need to read history, see what ‘Christians’ did around the world (rape, pillage, genocide) in the name of Jesus & the so called ‘god of love’.

‘et tu’ argument, and a very bad one. Let’s come back to this time and try to stop rape, pillage, and genocide.

Reply to  higley7
November 3, 2017 4:00 am

Paul Penrose is telling you the truth. What you’re spewing is BS.

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  higley7
November 3, 2017 6:30 am

Paul Penrose – November 2, 2017 at 8:27 pm

Take your tinfoil hat and religious/racial intolerance crap someplace else.

HA, residents in the Middle East, North Africa and Spain were preaching the same “religious tolerance” when they heard the news that Muhammad and his loyal believers were “on-the-move” in their direction.

What does Islam really teach about forced conversion?

Muslims are told to fight unbelievers until they are either dead, converted to Islam, or in a permanent state of subjugation under Muslim domination. Allowing people of other faiths to live and worship independently of Islamic rule is not an option.

Read more @

Lucky for France that there was one (1) person, …. Charles “The Hammer” Martel (c. 686 – 22 October 741) …… that instigated the arming and mobilizing of a “force” to defeat the Muslin horde of religious fanatics.

DC Cowboy
Reply to  higley7
November 3, 2017 6:57 am

“Lucky for France”? Lucky for the western world. Tours was one of the pivotal battles in world history. If Charles had failed the Ummayad Caliphate would most likely have enveloped all of Europe and history would be entirely different. The battle itself is notable for the fact that Charles Frankish and Burgundian army had no cavalry, yet still won.

Reply to  higley7
November 3, 2017 8:39 am

higley7 is quite right, at least if history is any guide

Islam has a long and well documented history of conquest by murder, enslavement, rape, and theft. “Infidels” have no rights under Sharia

Read this for enlightenment:

May 31, 2014
The Greatest Murder Machine in History

By Mike Konrad

When one thinks of mass murder, Hitler comes to mind. If not Hitler, then Tojo, Stalin, or Mao. Credit is given to the 20th-century totalitarians as the worst species of tyranny to have ever arisen. However, the alarming truth is that Islam has killed more than any of these, and may surpass all of them combined in numbers and cruelty.
The enormity of the slaughters of the “religion of peace” are so far beyond comprehension that even honest historians overlook the scale. When one looks beyond our myopic focus, Islam is the greatest killing machine in the history of mankind, bar none.
The Islamic conquest of India is probably the bloodiest story in history. — Will Durant, as quoted on Daniel Pipes site.
Conservative estimates place the number at 80 million dead Indians.
According to some calculations, the Indian (subcontinent) population decreased by 80 million between 1000 (conquest of Afghanistan) and 1525 (end of Delhi Sultanate). — Koenrad Elst as quoted on Daniel Pipes site
80 Million?! The conquistadors’ crimes pale into insignificance at that number. No wonder Hitler admired Islam as a fighting religion. He stood in awe of Islam, whose butchery even he did not surpass.
Over 110 Million Blacks were killed by Islam.
… a minumum of 28 Million African were enslaved in the Muslim Middle East. Since, at least, 80 percent of those captured by Muslim slave traders were calculated to have died before reaching the slave market, it is believed that the death toll from 1400 years of Arab and Muslim slave raids into Africa could have been as high as 112 Millions. When added to the number of those sold in the slave markets, the total number of African victims of the trans-Saharan and East African slave trade could be significantly higher than 140 Million people. — John Allembillah Azumah, author of The Legacy of Arab-Islam in Africa: A Quest for Inter-religious Dialogue
Add just those two numbers alone together, and Islam has surpassed the victims of 20th-century totalitarianism. However, it does not end there. Add the millions who died at the hand of Muslims in the Sudan in our lifetime.
Much of Islamic slavery was sexual in nature, with a preference for women. Those men who were captured were castrated. The mulatto children of the women were often killed, which explains why Islam was not demographically shifted towards the black race, unlike slaves in the West, who bore children to breed a mestizo class. Add in those dead children; and we arrive at well over 200 million.
Remember that in the 7th century, North Africa was almost totally Christian. What happened to them?
By the year 750, a hundred years after the conquest of Jerusalem, at least 50 percent of the world’s Christians found themselves under Muslim hegemony… Today there is no indigenous Christianity in the region [of Northwest Africa], no communities of Christians whose history can be traced to antiquity.– “Christianity Face to Face with Islam,” CERC
What happened to those Christian millions? Some converted. The rest? Lost to history.
We know that over 1 million Europeans were enslaved by Barbary Pirates. How many died is anybody’s guess.
…for the 250 years between 1530 and 1780, the figure could easily have been as high as 1,250,000 – BBC
In the Middle Ages…
…many slaves were passed through Armenia and were castrated there to fill the Muslim demand for eunuchs. — Slavery in Early Medieval Europe.
The same practice ran through Islamic Spain. North Europeans captured from raids up to Iceland, or purchased, were butchered in the castratoriums of Iberia. Many died from the operations that ran for centuries.
The number of dead from the Muslim conquest of the Balkans and Southern Italy is unknown, but again the numbers add up, surely into the millions over the centuries. Don’t forget the 1.5 million Armenian Christians killed by the Turks during WWI. We do know that over five centuries, vast numbers of Christian boys were kidnapped to become Islamic Janissary mercenaries for the Turks. Add those in, too.
Muslims prized blonde women for their harems; and so enslaved Slavic women were purchased in the bazaars of the Crimean Caliphate. In Muslim Spain, an annual tribute of 100 Visigothic [blonde] women was required from Spain’s Cantabrian coast.
For decades, 100 virgins per year were required by the Muslim rulers of Spain from the conquered population. The tribute was only stopped when the Spaniards began fighting back — Jihad: Islam’s 1,300 Year War Against Western Civilisation
Add in the death toll from the Reconquista and the numbers climb higher. Research has shown that the Dark Ages were not caused by the Goths, who eventually assimilated and Christianized:
…the real destroyers of classical civilization were the Muslims. It was the Arab Invasions… which broke the unity of the Mediterranean world and turned the Middle Sea — previously one of the world’s most important trading highways — into a battleground. It was only after the appearance of Islam… that the cities of the West, which depended upon the Mediterranean trade for their survival, began to die. — Islam Caused the Dark Ages
Add in those unknown millions who died as a consequence.
How many know the horrors of the conquest of Malaysia? The Buddhists of Thailand and Malaysia were slaughtered en masse.
When attacked and massacred by the Muslims, the Buddhists initially did not make any attempt to escape from their murderers. They accepted death with an air of fatalism and destiny. And hence they are not around today to tell their story. – History of
We may never know the numbers of dead.
After Muslims came to power in the early 15th century, animist hill peoples eventually disappeared due to their enslavement and ‘incorporation’ into the Muslim population of Malaya, Sumatra, Borneo, and Java via raids, tribute and purchase, especially of children. Java was the largest exporter of slaves around 1500. — Islam Monitor
In the same manner, Islam arrived in the Philippines. Only the appearance of the Spanish stopped a total collapse, and confined Islam to the southern islands.
The coming of the Spanish saved the Philippines from Islam, except for the Southern tip where the population had been converted to Islam.– History of
Again, the number of dead is unknown; but add them to the total.
The animist Filipinos were eager to ally with the Spanish against Islam. In fact, much of Southeast Asia welcomed the Spanish and Portuguese as preferable to Islam.
…from the 17th century successive Thai kings allied themselves with the seafaring Western powers – the Portuguese and the Dutch and succeeded in staving off the threat of Islam from the Muslim Malays and their Arab overlords.– History of
A few galleons and muskets were not enough to conquer Asia. Islam had made the Europeans initially appear as liberators; and to a certain extent they were. Who were the real imperialists? Even today…
…Malaysian Jihadis are plotting to transform multi-ethnic Malaysia into an Islamic Caliphate, and fomenting trouble in Southern Thailand.– History of
Add this all up. The African victims. The Indian victims. The European victims. Add in the Armenian genocide. Then add in the lesser known, but no doubt quite large number of victims of Eastern Asia. Add in the jihad committed by Muslims against China, which was invaded in 651 AD. Add in the Crimean Khanate predations on the Slavs, especially their women.
Though the numbers are not clear, what is obvious is that Islam is the greatest murder machine in history bar none, possibly exceeding 250 million dead. Possibly one-third to one-half or more of all those killed by war or slavery in history can be traced to Islam; and this is just a cursory examination.
Now consider the over 125 Million women today who have been genitally mutilated for Islamic honor’s sake. In spite of what apologists tell you, the practice is almost totally confined to Islamic areas.
New information from Iraqi Kurdistan raises the possibility that the problem is more prevalent in the Middle East than previously believed and that FGM is far more tied to religion than many Western academics and activists admit. – “Is Female Genital Mutilation an Islamic Problem?” ME Quarterly
Once thought concentrated in Africa, FGM has now been discovered to be common wherever Islam is found.
There are indications that FGM might be a phenomenon of epidemic proportions in the Arab Middle East. Hosken, for instance, notes that traditionally all women in the Persian Gulf region were mutilated. Arab governments refuse to address the problem. — “Is Female Genital Mutilation an Islamic Problem?” ME Quarterly
Remember that this has gone on for 1400 years; and was imposed on a population that had been formerly Christian or pagan. FGM is practiced on large scale in Islamic Indonesia; and is increasing.
…far from scaling down, the problem of FGM in Indonesia has escalated sharply. The mass ceremonies in Bandung have grown bigger and more popular every year. — Guardian
The horrified British author of that Guardian article is still deluded that Islam does not support FGM, when in fact it is now settled that FGM is a core Islamic practice. Islamic women have been brainwashed to support their own abuse.
Abu Sahlieh further cited Muhammad as saying, “Circumcision is a sunna (tradition) for the men and makruma (honorable deed) for the women.” — “Is Female Genital Mutilation an Islamic Problem?” ME Quarterly
What other tyranny does this? Not even the Nazis mutilated their own women! Unlike the 20th-century totalitarians whose killing fury consumed themselves, reducing their longevity, Islam paces itself. In the end, though slower, Islam has killed and tortured far more than any other creed, religious or secular. Unlike secular tyranny, Islam, by virtue of its polygamy and sexual predations, reproduces itself and increases.
Other tyrannies are furious infections, which burn hot, but are soon overcome. Islam is a slow terminal cancer, which metastasizes, and takes over. It never retreats. Its methods are more insidious, often imperceptible at first, driven by demographics. Like cancer, excision may be the only cure.
So whenever you read about this or that Israeli outrage — and there may be truth to the complaint — place the news in context. Look whom the Israelis are fighting against. Islam is like nothing else in history.
Mike Konrad is the pen name of an American who is not Jewish, Latin, or Arab. He runs a website,, where he discusses the subculture of Arabs in Latin America. He wishes his Spanish were better.

Reply to  higley7
November 3, 2017 9:12 am

That is complete nonsense

I’m with Paul here… this site is about climate, not invented theory from the extremes of the political spectrum

Reply to  higley7
November 3, 2017 2:36 pm

Replacement Migration:
Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?

United Nations projections indicate that over the next 50 years, the populations of virtually all countries of Europe as well as Japan will face population decline and population ageing. The new challenges of declining and ageing populations will require comprehensive reassessments of many established policies and programmes, including those relating to international migration.

Focusing on these two striking and critical population trends, the report considers replacement migration for eight low-fertility countries (France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, United Kingdom and United States) and two regions (Europe and the European Union). Replacement migration refers to the international migration that a country would need to offset population decline and population ageing resulting from low fertility and mortality rates.

Reply to  higley7
November 3, 2017 4:54 pm

“see what ‘Christians’ did around the world”…and they grew up and don’t do that no more

why didn’t the muslims grow up?

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  higley7
November 4, 2017 6:05 am

Griff – November 3, 2017 at 9:12 am

That is complete nonsense

I’m with Paul here…

Poor Griff, ….. I guess him/her being a highly vocal “contrarian” is a wee bit better than having to do without any friends at all.

To wit:

The alarming rise of female genital mutilation (FGM) in America

By Michelle Krupa, CNN
Updated 10:06 AM ET, Fri July 14, 2017

(CNN) — It’s a brutal practice that’s inflicted on thousands of girls and women every year. Female genital mutilation, or female ritual cutting, involves altering or injuring female genital organs.

Louis Hooffstetter
Reply to  Tom Halla
November 2, 2017 8:12 pm

Were the multiple waves of migration out of Africa by our human ancestors caused by climate change, political strife, or both?

(Just food for thought. This is a rhetorical question.)

Reply to  Louis Hooffstetter
November 2, 2017 8:30 pm

Yeah, just how much of movement by hunter-gatherers is simple expansion due to resources, and how much is someone losing a fight back home? Plus sheer looking for adventure, or uniting the locals by uniting in robbing ones neighbors.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Louis Hooffstetter
November 2, 2017 9:17 pm

Didn’t work out too well for the original Europeans… that is the Neanderthals.

Reply to  Louis Hooffstetter
November 3, 2017 3:50 am

How many of them, do you reckon, realized that they had just left Africa when they reached Arabia or Asia Minor? Then, many thousands of years further on, how many of the original bunch who left Asia and reached North America realized they had when they had?

What do you reckon may be the advantages to modern humans that were bequeathed by having received a relative few Neanderthal and/or Denisovan genes?

Reply to  Louis Hooffstetter
November 3, 2017 9:13 am

Frequently by drought: Africa has a repeated drought cycle over geologic time.

(whether you believe future droughts might occur based on climate change or not, a severe drought as has occurred in past time in Africa would drive a migration wave)

November 2, 2017 5:13 pm

Get your Wood out of Holly.

Then she’ll appear all spiky and uncomfortable.

But then Bollywood is doing a good job of entertaining a billion Indians. And Run Run Shaw is taking care of the Chinese.

Forgive me Eric, but I suspect this is one article on the American dream too far.

Reply to  HotScot
November 2, 2017 5:31 pm

But then Bollywood is doing a good job of entertaining a billion Indians.

But, to be fair, almost every bollywood film is the same as the previous. Indians know what they like, and like what they know.

I saw many over 30 years ago while there, and I couldn’t tell any apart. The few I’ve seen since also seem identical to those of 30 years ago, TBH.

Reply to  Jer0me
November 2, 2017 11:56 pm

Most of them based on the choreography of Busby Berkeley

Reply to  Jer0me
November 3, 2017 12:46 am


would they say the same thing about Hollywood movies? 🙂

Henning Nielsen
November 2, 2017 5:15 pm

“In my opinion Hollywood is likely a far greater driver of mass migration than climate change. The few times I have visited poor countries, everyone I met said they wanted to move to the USA.”

Many years ago, after the first Gulf War, I read in an American international newspaper some interviews with Mid East Arabs.

Question 1:
Who is you greatest enemy?
Answer: America.

Question two:
What would you do if you were free to move from your country?
Answer: Go to America.

Reply to  Henning Nielsen
November 3, 2017 12:25 am

Indeed. We need some negative PR in the US and in the EU.

I’m gonna vote for a gay president.

Reply to  Henning Nielsen
November 3, 2017 8:26 am

Yea and they believe that once in the USA they would convert us all to Islam. It is like the American Left. If they so hate America and what it stands for why don’t they migrate elsewhere?

November 2, 2017 5:26 pm

They were all fans of US sitcoms, utterly entranced by the glamorous fantasy lifestyle they saw every day on TV, of people living in clean houses with plenty to eat, nice cars, lots of time to socialise, and nobody working very hard.

I have noticed this in terms of house size. In US TV and film, houses are often portrayed as huge. I always wonder how such large houses could be kept clean without working on it most days.

Then I discovered that Australia has the largest average house size in the world, a bit larger than the average US house size. Obviously house size is significantly skewed by entertainment media, as is much else (apparent wealth, beauty, predominance of blue eyes, etc, etc).

It’s a bit like Aussie Neighbors and Home And Away soaps showing beautiful sunny days every day. It’s just not true, we do get the odd dull day every few weeks 🙂

Reply to  Eric Worrall
November 3, 2017 1:37 pm

If you don’t like the weather in Melbourne, just wait 5 minutes!

Stevan Reddish
November 2, 2017 5:31 pm

““Climate change is the unpredictable ingredient ”

Yet, the prediction:
“Climate change ‘will create world’s biggest refugee crisis’
Experts warn refugees could number tens of millions in the next decade, ”

With a prediction of where the refugees will leave and where they will go.

Should we believe the predictions, or the statement that this stuff is unpredictable?

I’m going with ignoring their predictions.


Reply to  Stevan Reddish
November 2, 2017 5:34 pm

I dunno. I think paying attention to their predictions is important. I mean, not a single one has panned out, and that’s a significant track record!

Greg Woods
Reply to  Stevan Reddish
November 3, 2017 3:20 am

‘Experts’ – I don’t think they know what that word means…

J Mac
November 2, 2017 5:52 pm

Political climates are the root cause of most ‘refugee crisis’.
Persecution, war, and corrupt governments are what most often make people flee from their troubled homelands.

November 2, 2017 5:57 pm

Nah. ClimateChange™ will be used as an excuse for mass migration and later as a cause of the negative effects of the mass migration. Double win for the Climate Change Cultists!

eddie willers
November 2, 2017 6:11 pm

Like they’d notice an extra degree or two.

November 2, 2017 6:17 pm

If you think television is giving the rest of the world an unrealistic idea of America, think what it’s doing to us. link

Mark from the Midwest
Reply to  commieBob
November 2, 2017 6:46 pm

I was pretty amazed from the story line of Friends that a few people in their 20’s could live in a 1500 square foot apartment with a solarium, somewhere on the Upper West Side. In real life those Bozo’s couldn’t afford a refrigerator box under the Path train in Newark.

November 2, 2017 6:18 pm

exactly….when you want a better life…and realize it’s not possible where you are

Stephen Heins
November 2, 2017 6:23 pm

While the debate about climate change will rage on, the importance of clean water, good sanitation, domicile ventilation, reliable electricity, and modern health care to local inhabitants in the developing countries is, unlike the science, actually settled.”

November 2, 2017 6:45 pm

Hey didn’t the CIA report that ” the coming ice age” would cause a refugee crisis back in 74?

Reply to  Mick
November 3, 2017 9:16 am

yes it did.

This explains why it was wrong and a minority view at the time

Reply to  Griff
November 3, 2017 2:48 pm

“This explains why it was wrong and a minority view at the time”

Another outright lie from one of your Left wing anti-scientific propaganda sources.

Here is one of many peer reviewed papers predicting a coming ice age.

Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate.


Effects on the global temperature of large increases in carbon dioxide and aerosol densities in the atmosphere of Earth have been computed. It is found that, although the addition of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does increase the surface temperature, the rate of temperature increase diminishes with increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. For aerosols, however, the net effect of increase in density is to reduce the surface temperature of Earth. Becuase of the exponential dependence of the backscattering, the rate of temperature decrease is augmented with increasing aerosol content. An increase by only a factor of 4 in global aerosol background concentration may be sufficient to reduce the surface temperature by as much as 3.5 deg.K. If sustained over a period of several years, such a temperature decrease over the whole globe is believed to be sufficient to trigger an ice age.

The rate at which human activities may be inadvertently modifying the climate of Earth has become a problem of serious concern . In the last few decades the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere appears to have increased by 7 percent . During the same period, the aerosol content of the lower atmosphere may have been augmented by as much as 100 percent .

How have these changes in the composition of the atmosphere affected the climate of the globe? More importantly, is it possible that a continued increase in the CO2 and dust content of the atmosphere at the present rate will produce such large-scale effects on the global temperature that the process may run away, with the planet Earth eventually becoming as hot as Venus (700 deg. K.) or as cold as Mars (230 deg. K.)?

We report here on the first results of a calculation in which separate estimates were made of the effects on global temperature of large increases in the amount of CO2 and dust in the atmosphere. It is found that even an increase by a factor of 8 in the amount of CO2, which is highly unlikely in the next several thousand years, will produce an increase in the surface temperature of less than 2 deg. K.

However, the effect on surface temperature of an increase in the aerosol content of the atmosphere is found to be quite significant. An increase by a factor of 4 in the equilibrium dust concentration in the global atmosphere, which cannot be ruled out as a possibility within the next century, could decrease the mean surface temperature by as much as 3.5 deg. K. If sustained over a period of several years, such a temperature decrease could be sufficient to trigger an ice age!

Schneider S. & Rasool S., “Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols – Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate”, Science, vol.173, 9 July 1971, p.138-141

Those results were based on a climate model developed by none other than James Hansen, incidentally.

Here are a few more:

And there are several hundred more where they came from.

November 2, 2017 7:14 pm

Are we still discussing “global cooling” — “global warming” or “climate change”? Humans, those pesky varmints!!!

November 2, 2017 7:38 pm

From the article: “Tens of millions of people will be forced from their homes by climate change in the next decade, creating the biggest refugee crisis the world has ever seen, according to a new report.”

Ridiculous! There is no factual basis for making this statement.

Reply to  TA
November 3, 2017 12:28 am

Facts !! who needs facts…this is climate change world, where only everything bad happens…just like in a Hammer Horror Movie.

November 2, 2017 7:40 pm

Climate change from peace to war has and will drive more refugees into Europe.

Mark T
November 2, 2017 7:46 pm

Don’t you actually have to have at least one before you can argue about a crisis?

Power Grab
Reply to  Mark T
November 3, 2017 1:44 pm

LOL! Not when you’re the media!

Your job is to manufacture crises when you’re in that business!

Remember, you have to have a conflict in your story to maintain the interest of the consumer. That’s the Prime Directive for media-crats.

November 2, 2017 7:53 pm

from the article: “Of course, there are other reasons for mass migration than climate.”

Yeah, like Obama turning his back on Iraq and allowing the Islamic Terror Army to rise and take over much of both Syria and Iraq, and Obama sat there and twiddled his thumbs while millions of innocent people were killed and displaced by the terrorists. The displaced masses are now overrunning Europe and threatening their way of life.

Obama also give the Mad Mullahs of Iran, the biggest state sponsors of terrorism on the globe, and the murderer of countless Americans, $150 billion to do with as they see fit.

Obama is the biggest enabler of radical Islamic terrorism in the history of mankind.

Makes one wonder whose side he is really on. Could he really be that stupid, that he did this accidentally?

Worst president Evah! Without a doubt. Noone else is even close.

Reply to  TA
November 4, 2017 12:37 pm

You do realise that it was Bush who started the whole Iraq war, which destabilized the region and caused everyone there hate US?

Reply to  fredar
November 4, 2017 1:05 pm

That is a really, really short term view of history. The dispute started several thousand years ago, with various actors trying to invade or otherwise influence the area. No one ever succeeded in the long run, but laying blame on the purported successors of various parties is an old game.
The current phase is mostly due to the breakdown of the Ottoman Empire, which arguably started in the late 1600’s. If you really want to blame an American President, blame Woodrow Wilson for making a total hash of Versaille. Blaming Bush 43 is rather late in the game.

Curious George
November 2, 2017 7:54 pm

Experts: Climate refugees are fleeing the greening of the planet.
Experts have no shame.

Reply to  Curious George
November 3, 2017 4:08 am

My thought exactly. Why flee when the deserts are greening; sudden outbreaks of hayfever?

November 2, 2017 8:01 pm

The current refugee crisis is mostly caused by the United States’ wars (both direct and proxy) in the Middle East and North Africa. Sadly, it appears that Trump is continuing with this criminal and idiotic nonsense.

Reg Nelson
Reply to  Michael Palmer
November 2, 2017 8:18 pm

Actually no, the Sunni’s and Shiites have been at war for centuries.

Obama’s Arab Spring only made this situation worse.

Curious George
Reply to  Reg Nelson
November 3, 2017 7:42 am

Obama always claims that Islam is a religion of peace.

Roger Graves
Reply to  Reg Nelson
November 3, 2017 8:33 am

There’s a curious parallel between Sunni/Shia conflict and Catholic/Protestant conflict. Go back a few hundred years in European history and you will find the same kind of religious conflict between Catholics and Protestants as there is nowadays between Sunni and Shia. It took four or five hundred years for the Catholic/Protestant wars to die down, so I suspect we will have to wait this long for the Sunni/Shia wars to do likewise.

Most wars, if they go on long enough, result in refugees. No need to invoke climate change as the reason for it.

Reply to  Reg Nelson
November 4, 2017 12:43 pm

So you are saying that the Iraq war had no effect at all? And since when Obama caused the Arab spring? That was caused by the people in those countries being fed up with their undemocratic leaders. I’m not a fan of Obama either but claiming that he is some kind of an antichrist seems a bit schitzophrenic. You are no better than the lefties who claim that Trump causes hurricanes.

This is why I hate politics… Is reasonable discussion too much to ask?

Paul Penrose
November 2, 2017 8:33 pm

If people flee sub-Sahara Africa it won’t be because of increasing temperatures, because temperatures aren’t increasing in the tropics. Almost all the “global warming” is occurring in the higher latitudes. At night.(higher minimum temps much more than higher maximums)

Aren’t these the same people that said we’d have millions of “climate refugees” *this* decade? They have no credibility or shame it seems.

Crispin in Waterloo
November 2, 2017 8:45 pm

“What we are talking about here is an existential threat to our civilisation in the longer term.”

The last time the climate was 2 degrees warmer, it rained across the Sahara, turning it into grazing land. The only climate refugees we are seeing these days are Northern Europeans trekking south to Spain, Dakar’s Club Med and the Greek isles. Why are there so many Russians visiting Southern Turkey? To get away from the climate in Russia, of course = climate refugees. Why are Europeans retiring in droves to villas in Casablanca? To get close to Muslims? No! To get away from the wretched European climate.

Invented scares about threats that are far more likely to be in the other direction are worthless. As long as Western companies and countries are exploiting the hell out of Africa, the refugees will continue to go north looking for work and respite from the endemic corruption and diseases no one is willing to control.

A friend of mine, a black African tool and die maker, told me of his time in E Germany learning his trade – education he could not obtain in his home country with a 6% literacy rate. He went to a bar and greeted a young couple seated there, as one does in civilised society. He got no response, save that she turned to her boyfriend and said, “Look. It talks.”

You think he wants to stay in Europe? We went back to Africa and runs his own tool and die business. There is an unrecognised flood of white people from SE Europe into Africa going on right now. No one talks about it because apparently it is not an existential threat to civilisation as we know it. It is just that they take decades or even generations to learn to speak the local language, or find out how to greet, meet, and behave in a civilised manner. Funny, that.

November 2, 2017 9:03 pm

Human wars have done more to damage the earth and other humans than a bit of long term warming
will ever do . No CO2 no green earth .
The refugees are as a result of inhumanity , tribalism , religion and greed . I will take a bit of the real global warming any day over man made travesty’s of culling the herd and the suppression of peoples rights to lead free peaceful lives .
As long as humans can destroy the earth as we know it with the push of some buttons we have bigger
issues . The global warming fear industry is a tax payer funded business we can live without .

Reply to  Amber
November 4, 2017 12:54 pm

Ice ages, mass extinctions, asteroid impacts, volcanic eruptions… Nature has done more damage to earth than all humans combined. Then again “nature”, “damage”, “morality”, “ethics”, “rights”, “freedom”, “greed” are all concepts invented by humans. Predators like polar bears are, from our point of view, selfish and brutal killers who infringe on other species “rights” and don’t care about “morality” or other silly human inventions. It’s amusing how we are never calling them “greedy”. Buying a second car makes you a Hitler, but volcanoes can emit millions of tons of sulphur into the atmosphere but no one gives a s***.

November 2, 2017 9:09 pm

Climate has absolutely nothing to do with it. Refugee problems are caused by politics, pure and simple. Although climate change is, of course, political. Nothing more.

November 2, 2017 9:23 pm

Europe has already destroyed itself with its: open-border immigration policies, unsustainable low birth rates and Socialism.

The $trillions Western countries have squandered in 3rd-World countries since the 1960’s have exacerbated the problem by allowing populations to explode in countries with: terrible climates, limited arable land, limited natural resources, limited infrastructure and poorly educated populations, and have empowered 3rd-World tyrannical theocracies and Socialist dictators that enslave their people to worsen an already unsustainable situation.

Einstein defined insanity as doing the same thing over and and over again and expecting a different result.

3rd-World countries lack a combination of: economic and social freedom, rain, arable land, natural resources, a well-educated general population and infrastructure. Dumping money into 3rd-World countries without first addressing the fundamental CAUSES of their impoverishment is insane.

Climate Change isn’t worsening the 3rd-World’s plight, they did it to themselves, and Western countries are just making matters worse.

As an added bonus, the 3rd-World overpopulation bomb we helped create is now exploding inside Western countries and will eventually lead to the death of Western Civilization…

Nice goin’, guys…

Reply to  SAMURAI
November 3, 2017 4:47 am

And that is the sublimely obvious truth of it which people invent all manner of nonsense to avoid dealing with,

Reply to  SAMURAI
November 3, 2017 9:18 am

The US birth rate is below replacement level and only immigration keeps population from declining…

Reply to  Griff
November 3, 2017 1:52 pm

What should the total population be anyway? And what is the maximum sustainable population?

Reply to  Griff
November 3, 2017 7:28 pm

Birth rates are down in advanced industrialized countries because a large and growing segment of the population can’t financially support larger families, which is primarily caused by vastly devalued currencies from government over spending and excessive money printing and excessive taxes on the productive segments of society (50% of Americans pay ZERO income taxes).

Immigrants from 3rd-World countries with low skill sets, limited language skills, and limited education is societal and economic suicide.. Most immigrants end up on Welfare, which simply exacerbates the situation.

Again, all immigration should be merit based from countries that share similar values and wish to integrate,and will not become a financial burden to existing citizens.

November 2, 2017 10:04 pm

The Hollywood meme is not at all far-fetched. This has long been known as the “demonstration effect”, wherein the “have-nots” can see the “haves” and simply want a better life. This is well-known from places like Mexico where luxury in hotels/resorts is juxtaposed with abject poverty. That’s why many resorts are gated. The advent of modern communication brings the stark differences between Western and developing cultures to more and more folks every day. Do these advocates of climate refugees really think that the millions who have moved from Central America/Mexico across the US border did so because of climate change? All one has to add is the “guilt complex” developing in Europe, political leaders who believe in open borders, and a system of support for immigrants and – bingo- millions will move. Europe is in a bad position with easy access from Asia and Africa. North America has restricted access owing solely to isolation, the same thing that kept two world wars off-shore. One only has to compare the immigration policies among developed nations to see the causes for mass migrations (Japan, Australia, USA, Canada vs the EU). Europe is reeling under the pressure of a few million “refugees” – America is debating how to handle 10+ million. The difference is the “clash of cultures” in the EU, and the relatively seamless absorption of primarily Hispanics/Latinos in America.

November 2, 2017 10:55 pm

Global cooling has begun, but I think we can feed everyone and provide energy in abundance, if they don’t migrate. We don’t need a repeat of the mass migration period.

November 2, 2017 11:09 pm

When you look at the areas where migration allegedly it is driven by climate change you will see that overpopulation is a signifiant factor (mostly related to religious/political ideals). These areas are mostly in areas such as deserts that cannot support these populations which have mushroomed in recent decades. No one wants to talk about these self inflicted problems. Add to that the polictical leadership in these countries is often crass and for sure you have a lot of people who want to leave for lots of reasons mostly economic and not least seeking a better future for their children.

We should also remmeber that journalist who report on science issues are hardly qualified to understand the complexities of climate change here are 3 examples of science correspondants from the BBC…

David Shulman attended the Dragon School in Oxford, Eton College, then read Geography at Durham University (Hatfield College), gaining a BA.
Jonathan Amos simply says Open University ???
Matt McGrath studied Journalism he does not state his degree but has an MA in Journalism from Bournemouth University and has a Fellowship in science journalism from MIT

Hardly Scientists… but good story tellers and stories that tell nothing but good news dont get you a by-line and fame.

I for one was hoping threre was something to the CO2 issue… it might have been a means to offset the pending ice age.. wind farms, solar panels and electric cars dont operate very well under a mile or more of ice! Then consdider the climate change migrations that will ensue…

Keep up the good work… the truth will always out!!

November 3, 2017 2:38 am

the Sahel [sub-Saharan area] especially

Funny, all the studies thus far show the Sahel is becoming ‘greener’ The benefits in Europe are a powerful magnet.

Fake news.

The southern Saharan desert is in retreat, making farming viable again in what were some of the most arid parts of Africa.

New Scientist has learned that a separate analysis of satellite images completed this summer reveals that dunes are retreating right across the Sahel region on the southern edge of the Sahara desert. Vegetation is ousting sand across a swathe of land stretching from Mauritania on the shores of the Atlantic to Eritrea 6000 kilometres away on the Red Sea coast.

Nor is it just a short-term trend. Analysts say the gradual greening has been happening since the mid-1980s, though has gone largely unnoticed. Only now is the evidence being pieced together.

November 3, 2017 3:03 am

“… Mass displacement caused by climate change can bring disparate communities with different ethnicities, religious or other cultural beliefs and identities into contact, further driving the potential for conflict. ”
but but but.
what happened to Grauniad?
Are THEY writing that immigration can drive conflict?

Oh, i get it. Only “displacement caused by climate change ” may have this effect. Another magical effect of devilish CO2: immigration is good, but it turns it ugly. Because, the devil, you know.

November 3, 2017 4:01 am

ahhhh, the old climate refugee story again.

The UN “disappears” 50 million climate refugees, then botches …
Fifty million climate refugees by 2010. Today we find a world of asymmetric development, unsustainable natural resource use, and continued rural and urban …
Search domain wattsupwiththat.com

Reply to  richard
November 3, 2017 5:16 am
Bruce Cobb
November 3, 2017 4:46 am

This is the ultimate in “climate communication”, and is deliberate. What they are doing is attempting to appeal to primarily Conservative paranoia about mass immigration, border security, and in general national security. It is a blatant and desparate attempt to broaden their base, which is continually slipping away.

November 3, 2017 5:50 am

“some 1.3-1.5 million people were on the move from drought-stricken regions before a single gunshot was red.”

Gunshot are red? What color was it before that?

Reply to  DCA
November 3, 2017 5:51 am

Maybe they hired Ivan to proofread.

Reply to  DCA
November 3, 2017 2:59 pm

“Gunshot are red?”

Gunshots can be red if red tracer rounds are used.

They say the Las Vegas mass murderer was going to use tracer rounds during his murderous spree but ended up not doing so.

That’s too bad because if he had used tracer rounds everyone would immediately know where the shots were coming from, and they would know where the shooter was aiming, which would enable them to avoid running into fire.

I used to watch those red tracer rounds being fired from aircraft equipped with mini-guns in Vietnam. The red tracers looked like a solid line snaking and undulating down to the ground (every fifth round was a tracer) and when the bullets would hit the ground it would look like a big red fountain had been turned on as the tracer rounds bounced off the ground, high into the air. It was a sight to behold.

We liked those mini-guns. The enemy couldn’t run away fast enough when those birds (Puff the Magic Dragon) showed up.

November 3, 2017 6:25 am

Climate of fear perhaps and climate of depressed opportunity depending on the locale.

November 3, 2017 6:32 am

Being able to grow more crops is going to force people to migrate?

November 3, 2017 7:03 am

The only refugees will be from the Great Fake-News Flood of the 21st century.

November 3, 2017 7:04 am

We need to take the source areas for this migration under administration. May require force.

November 3, 2017 8:37 am

‘Climate change’ has NOTHING WHATSOEVER to do with mass migration, literally nothing, as there are many arid parts of the world with bountiful agriculture and a surplus of life’s good things. All the ‘victims’ mentioned are from countries and regions that are, to be polite, less well off than perhaps they could otherwise be. (If I were to be impolite I’d be modded)
Some of those people seek refuge from religious and cultural tyranny while others are relocating to precisely deliver such tyranny of their own. We must refuse them. Anthony has already nailed the cut-through: Europe needs to secure its borders, and fast.

November 3, 2017 9:07 am

Every winter, ‘snowbirds’ migrate from the snow to warmer places, closer to the Equator. And when the snow disappears, they migrate northward, to home.

Lucius von Steinkaninchen
November 3, 2017 9:40 am

I thought that the suicide open borders policy of the EU was what has been driving more refugees.

Gary Pearse
November 3, 2017 10:48 am

Brain-dead political climate will create the biggest refugee surge into Europe. There are people who would create a war to get lifetime benefits in Europe with no need to change your culture and language and no requirement to lift a finger for your keep.

November 3, 2017 11:08 am

From the data it looks like Islam has been driving more ‘refugees’ into Europe.

Reply to  tadchem
November 3, 2017 1:50 pm


Bruce Cobb
November 3, 2017 12:48 pm

Climate will drive more people crazy
Climate will drive more people to drink
Climate will make whatever is bad worse
Climate – the ultimate bogeyman.

November 3, 2017 1:29 pm

Prince William, whose wife is expecting their third child, has sent out a bleak warning that an overpopulated planet threatens animal species. His comments come as experts predict Britain’s population will swell to 70 million by 2029.

November 3, 2017 3:29 pm

Bombs are caused by climate change! /sarc

November 4, 2017 9:06 am

Wait a min here. Stop the presses!
Isn’t global warming supposed to cause sea levels to rise to such an extent that most of Europe will be covered by water and most of the population with it? So…what will all these climate refugees be flocking to exactly? And why only Europe? What about the Americas? (oh wait, Hollyweird will be under water too–so write off ALL of the other countries because only America matters–despite there being 2 continents). These people do know we have boats right? Or is that the way 20 million will get into Europe?

Lets just play here. Assuming there are 20 million climate refugess from Africa and the Middle East due to increasing deserts..etc. That means that more than that will have started out the migration and died along the way through the desert due to dehydration, heat exhaustion…etc. right? Because apparently, modern technology is not utilized in this scenario. So…out of that 20 million that make it, how many more didn’t make it? And if most of Europe is decimated by rising sea levels–those 20 million might be a welcomed site to an underpopulated Europe.

What about Asia in this scenario? What part do they play? Oh wait…I forgot about the inherent ethnocentricity in the article…nevermind, silly me. I mean why in the world would everyone head to Europe anyway if it’s underwater…my bet would be to head into Asia along established migration routes that are still active.

But then you wouldn’t have that ludicrous statement about different cultures colliding.

Jonny Scott
November 4, 2017 10:17 am

Paul Penrose. While I in part agree with you, your definition of hate seems to be so broad and all encompassing as to be akin to defining exhaling under the all encompassing umbrella of hurricane. Be proportional in your responses guys and avoid joining the burgeoning ranks of blind zealotry. The issue of immigration has been raised by this article so why be surprised by attempts at analysis regardless with what you personally may or may not agree with? There is certainly something very wrong with current immigration coming into Europe on a scale which has no historical precedence especially when the overwhelming proportion of those immigrants are of a single ideology in a world of multiple religions and ideologies and especially when those people choose not to go to nearby countries with which they have ideological and cultural affinity. Denouncement of opinion as hate is not an argument but politically correct (marxist) bullying.

Jonny Scott
November 4, 2017 12:07 pm

Why into Europe exactly? I can understand certain scenarios creating refugees but WHY should they automatically head for Europe? Are we talking about running away from heat? If that is the case then why is there no equivalent “concern” in the US for people in the Southern States, Texas et al “fleeing” to the more temperate North. The logic if there is any here is suspect to say the least and smacks more of an agenda desperately seeking to camouflage itself. There are reasons and then there are excuses. I leave you to draw your own conclusions

Yogi Bear
November 4, 2017 1:01 pm

“… wait 20 years,” said retired US military corps brigadier general Stephen Cheney. “See what happens when climate change drives people out of Africa – the Sahel”

Cold AMO, Sahel drought, from 20 years ahead is about right.

November 5, 2017 8:49 am

“and history aint changed” The Who, ‘Wont get fooled Again.’

Thank You GeologyJim for this posting. Very insightful.

Based on some of the comments I have seen here, there are some concerned people that didn’t read your post. So, I have linked to it below.


%d bloggers like this: