“The global rate of ocean warming has many consequences for life on this planet. Now we are learning that the Red Sea is warming even faster than the global average,” says KAUST PhD student of marine science, Veronica Chaidez.
The analyses, conducted by a multidisciplinary team spanning all three divisions at KAUST, provide vital data that could help predict the future of the Red Sea’s marine biodiversity when supplemented by evidence to be gathered on the thermal limits of local organisms.
Analyses of satellite sensing data from 1982 to 2015 show that the Red Sea’s maximum surface temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.17 ± 0.07°C per decade, exceeding the global ocean warming rate of 0.11°C per decade. Maximum sea-surface temperatures were found to increase from north to south along the Red Sea basin, with the coolest temperatures located in the gulfs of Suez and Aqaba in the far North. These two gulfs, however, are showing the highest rates of change compared to the rest of the basin at 0.40-0.45°C per decade; four times faster than the mean global ocean warming rate.
The Northern Red Sea experiences maximum temperatures throughout July, while the Southern Red Sea is warmest from late July to mid-August. Interestingly, sea-surface temperatures reached their maximum in an area on the Eastern coast of the Red Sea, about 200km south of Jeddah, from mid-August to early September. This anomaly may be caused by the unique wind patterns in this region.
Maximum surface temperatures are also recorded about a quarter of a day earlier per decade.
Systematic monitoring efforts are needed to assess the impacts of these rapid warming rates on coral bleaching and mass marine organism mortality events, adds Chaidez. Currently, no such monitoring exists in the Red Sea, but Chaidez is testing the thermal capacities of some of the basin’s plants and animals in her laboratory. A model that incorporates data on temperatures, organism thermal limits, and other relevant biological data could help predict impacts of warming on the local ecosystem.
Evidence suggests that warm temperatures in the Red Sea are already challenging the capacity of its marine organisms to adapt and survive. Marine organisms generally adapt to rising ocean temperatures by migrating toward the poles. This is not an easy migration in the Red Sea since it is a semi-enclosed space, rendering its organisms vulnerable.
###
The paper (open access): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-08146-z
Abstract
Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade−1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 – 2.0 °C before the end of the century1. However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea’s thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 – 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade−1, while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade−1, all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.
Data Availability
The data set supporting the analysis presented here can be found in the Pangaea open data repository: (Chaidez et al. 2017, http://www.pangaea.de)48.
From the paper:
Given the localized warming patterns in that figure, it looks like a turbidity/albedo issue from human effluent and agricultural runoff. They don’t even mention the word “turbidity” or “albedo” in the paper, preferring to go straight to blaming “climate change”.
Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change…
Sad that they didn’t think to investigate this possibility of turbidity/albedo changes. It might be because: “… the author PhD student of marine science, Veronica Chaidez“. The oversight falls on her adviser then. I wouldn’t call this paper good science because science demands that you look at all the possibilities, and rule them out before making a conclusion. I’ll give her points though for making the dataset available.
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Before the ‘Anthropocene’ I had students in an ecology and evolution class (sophomore level) analyze a paper of their choice, subject to veto. The important thing was for the student to analyze the analysis because no one could be much of an expert, particularly at that level, on the subject of the paper. In more advanced classes better understanding was expected, requiring more than one paper. Two obviously easy things in the paper are examples of something a good student would have caught as some did.
“During the years 1997–1998, one of the strongest El Niño events occurred, while 2000–2001 was considered a weak La Niña event35.
35.Hjelle, B. & Glass, G. E. Outbreak of hantavirus infection in the four corners region of the United States in the wake of the 1997-1998 El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The Journal of Infectious Diseases 181, 1569–1573 (2000).”
While one always likes students doing widespread checking Citation 35 used a terrestrial relationship of epidemiology to verify a physical oceanic event.
Secondly, the first sentence of the abstract is of no use unless climate can only change as noted—“Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change,…”
These examples show the reviewers and editors of Nature are not very rigorous. This is a very interesting place with some study and some of this seems at first glance reasonable, but I would certainly check to see if there is more information on maximum thermal limits which has a big literature.
The Salton Sea is also warming faster than any average … must be CO2, and nuthin’ else.
Volcanoes are notorious for exhaling CO2 and there are active volcanoes in the Salton Sea. And a geothermal power generating plant that must also be churning out CO2. By the same token, the geothermal plant is hailed as a ‘green’ generator of electricity … go figure.
Volcanoes are notorious for exhaling CO2 and there are active volcanoes in the Salton Sea. And a geothermal power generating plant that must also be churning out CO2. By the same token, the geothermal plant is hailed as a ‘green’ generator of electricity … go figure.
change in albedo?
That’s easy to check…
…… program running……
Nope. No change.
Before you speculate that it Might be turbidity,
or that it might be albedo
or that it might be unicorns…
you check.
She gets to put forward her thesis. If you think it could be unicorns or albedo or Anything BUT climate change, you get to check your own speculation.
Albedo.. go get the dataset, check
Wow, that wasn’t hard at all…
“Effects of turbidity on survival of larval ayu and red sea bream exposed to predation by jack mackerel and moon jellyfish.”
Say what?
“Our study indicates that anthropogenic increases of turbidity may increase the relative impact of jellyfish predation on fish larvae.”
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12562-010-0320-9
Would it not be more accurate to say that climate change is major consequence of ocean warming? It is weather trends that climate is derived from. Climate doesn’t change the weather – it is a consequence of weather.
“Earthquakes and volcanic eruption happen often around the area of the Red Sea as the crust cracks and magma rushed up and causes an eruption. The volcanoes and earthquakes cause some damage but the earthquakes are usually mild. The last earthquake in the Red Sea was a 4.6 on September 13 2010.”
http://katherine-tectonictour.blogspot.com/2011/04/trip-to-red-sea.html
Googling ‘List of Earthquakes in the Red Sea’ a few minutes ago led me to –
https://earthquaketrack.com/r/red-sea/recent
This site lists the following: –
4 months ago 4.4 magnitude, 10 km depth
Jeddah, Makkah, Saudi Arabia
6 months ago 4.6 magnitude, 11 km depth
Red Sea
2 years ago 4.4 magnitude, 10 km depth
Tokār, Red Sea, Sudan
2 years ago 4.8 magnitude, 10 km depth
Red Sea
2 years ago 4.3 magnitude, 10 km depth
Massawa, Northern Red Sea Region, Eritrea
2 years ago 4.5 magnitude, 10 km depth
Red Sea
2 years ago 4.2 magnitude, 10 km depth
Red Sea
2 years ago 4.1 magnitude, 18 km depth
Red Sea
2 years ago 4.4 magnitude, 10 km depth
Tokār, Red Sea, Sudan
2 years ago 4.7 magnitude, 11 km depth
Ad Darb, Jizan, Saudi Arabia
So several since 2010, albeit mostly between 4 and 4.8.
Auto
Lake Superior 2007:
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/20145325/ns/us_news-environment/t/huge-lake-superior-shrinking-warming/
Lake Superior 2017:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/articles.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/great_lakes_water_temperatures_8.amp#ampshare=http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/great_lakes_water_temperatures_8.html
https://www.google.com/amp/www.duluthnewstribune.com/news/4340252-lake-superiors-high-water-causing-headaches%3famp#ampshare=http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/news/4340252-lake-superiors-high-water-causing-headaches
It seems they have done some good data gathering. Figure 6 in the paper shows that when ocean surface temperatures are higher, the Red Sea surface temperatures are higher. They’ve also found that a smaller body of water warms more than a much larger body of water. These things seem like they are “Well, duh” facts, but once in a while things aren’t as expected, so it’s fine that they looked at it if that’s what makes them happy.
Of course, relating it to a doomsday scenario is a little tougher. From the paper:
“Systematic monitoring efforts are required to detect the effect of heat anomalies on marine organisms, such as bleaching and mass mortality events36. Unfortunately, there is no systematic monitoring of biological events in the Red Sea, such as bleaching events, which may be affected by thermal anomalies such as those reported here.”
Although they now cannot detect anything, it seems like they might be willing to spend a lot of time monitoring effects of heat on marine organisms looking for problems.
Again, it adds a tiny bit to the body of knowledge of the human race , but unlikely to have an effect on any person’s life other than their own.
It’s a possibility, but not due to the atmosphere. There is significant geological activity in that region. The whole region is being pulled apart and is sinking. The Afar region in north east Ethiopia is the hottest place on earth. Salt is still “farmed” and traded there. The whole region will become a massive inland sea. So geothermal activity will be the cause of any water heating, not CO2 in air above it.
For “climate change”, code for increasing CO2, to be warming the Red Sea; the warming would have to be even and smoothe. CO2 mixes very efficiently in both air and water. Their own map is extremely uneven in both warming and timing.
“it looks like a turbidity/albedo issue from human effluent and agricultural runoff”
Hmmm
Agriculture, let alone run off, is surely quite scarce along the desert/arid regions fringing the Red Sea?
and there are few major population centres likely to be dumping effluent.
Maybe if you did search for “Eritrea agriculture”, you wouldn’t be so dismally ill-informed.
Maybe you have heard of Mecca, Jeddah?
And of course , there are numerous fish farms along coast the Red Sea.
Here’s a better solution than albedo… ships use the water for coolant.
https://www.marineinsight.com/guidelines/general-overview-of-central-cooling-system-on-ships/
All of the ships going through a limited volume of water will of course raise temperatures faster than open sea where temperatures can disperse, and there is more surface area for the ships to have used… ie. all of the heat isn’t concentrated into a narrow zone.
Think of it in terms of a blowtorch vs a heat lamp. Even if the heat lamp were to put out more total heat, the blowtorch concentrates it into a small area.
Good point…It all adds up, and the many large ships plying those relatively small waters are not only directly cycling hot water from engine cooling back into the ocean, but then the giant propellors are doing a fair bit of local mixing of the surface waters. Even the giant ships themselves are acquiring solar heating during the day time and contributing some heat back to the water and atmosphere. A bit of cumulative heating for sure, but whether this makes any significant difference would make for an interesting, more advanced analysis. If increasing CO2 1 part per 10,000 can supposedly be responsible for all the GW/CC, then why can’t some other obvious sources of heating also be considered.
A factor to consider is there’s an awful lot of commerce thru that little basin mixing the heated with the water below . A Lower temperature over the absorbing depth would increase the rate of heating .
But this is likely minor compared to normal wave action .
As a statistician myself, I calculate that 100% of them are below the mean.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/24/faster-than-everyplace-else/#more-22488
Faster than everyplace else…
Not the first time.
What is the likelihood of the sea floor rifting adding warmth via either hot rocks or warm water, or both?
Hot water will rise, in this case from the bottom of the rift which is about 2,000 km (~1,200 miles) long.
Hot water will rise, in this case from the bottom of the rift which is about 2,000 km (~1,200 miles) long.