[Update 9/25 12:05 am. I have change the title from 240,000 to thousands to reflect the change in the underlying story and am modifying the first sentence of the post ~ ctm]
Last updated 15:19, September 23 2017
About 240,000 Thousands of people are fleeing Bali’s Mount Agung precinct in eastern Indonesia, with the volcano threatening to erupt at any moment.
The warning was raised to the maximum level four on Friday night, which means a hazardous eruption is imminent for the first time in 54 years. This could happen within 24 hours.
Are you in Bali? Stay safe and send your news or pics to newstips@stuff.co.nz
ANTARA FOTO/REUTERS
Mount Agung last erupted in 1963, killing 1100 people.
Locals reported monkeys and snakes fleeing the mountain.
Evacuated villagers at a shelter in Klungkung, Bali.
People have also been told to evacuate from within a nine- to 12-kilometre radius after smoke was detected rising 100 metres from the summit on Friday night.
The airport is still operating but a series of tremors increasing in intensity has shaken the area surrounding Mt Agung in recent days.
Mt Agung, which is 71km from the tourist destination of Kuta, last erupted in 1963, killing 1100 people. The large volcano has a peak 10,000 feet above sea level.
The Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation said seismic activity had dramatically increased. “This number of seismicity is an unprecedented seismic observation at Agung volcano ever recorded by our seismic networks,” it said in a statement.
It said its monitoring data and analysis indicated an increased probability of eruption but it could not estimate exactly when it would take place.
New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade last updated its travel advice for Bali on Tuesday, when the volcanic alert level was raised to three. At the time, MFAT said that in the event of volcanic ash clouds, New Zealanders travelling to or from Bali were advised to confirm travel arrangements before going to the airport.
A police officer searches for residents who did not evacuate an area close to the summit of Mount Agung.
If travel was disrupted, people should keep all receipts to support travel insurance claims. New Zealanders in Bail were advised to update their registration information, or if not registered, to do so.
House of Travel commercial director Brent Thomas said “thousands” of Kiwis might be affected.
“We have to keep monitoring it very closely to see what impact it may have,” he said. “It’s something to be very aware of.”
Mt Agung from near where visitor Nicole Saunders has been staying.Private school holidays were starting this coming week, with state school holidays starting the week after.
After the winter New Zealand had just been through, many people had been booking trips, particularly starting from the middle of the coming week, Thomas said.
He expected many customers would be asking advice for about what they should do.
“No doubt customers will be concerned. My best advice is to stay close to your travel agent as they will be able to keep you informed as events unfold.”
Nicole Saunders, who is holidaying on Bali, said the coast where she was staying was “pretty deserted”. She was at Amed – east of the volcano and just outside the evacuation zone.
She was due to fly back to Auckland on Sunday and had decided to head to Seminyak, at the southern end of Bali near the capital Denpasar, a day early.
“We’ve experienced quite a number of tremors over the last 24 hours,” she said. “Finding a driver wasn’t easy – many don’t want to leave their family and are nervous to be on the roads. Most tourists seem to have packed up and headed away from the area.”
Read the rest of the story here.
HT | AJB
How long will it be before some Warmista claims that the Mount Agung eruption is caused by CO2? Even the monkeys and snakes fleeing the mountain know better than that.
More likely what will happen first is the argument that scientist successfully foretasted the volcano, therefore you must trust their forecasts about global warming.
Indonesia always has volcanoes going off. Merapi and Kelud are just recent examples. The authorities there are generally always on their game when it comes to dealing with them.
Generally, yes, but the 1963 eruption of Mt Agung killed 1500 people. Hopefully they will better prepared this time if there is a similar massive event.
Another VEI5 stratospheric eruption would give new data allowing better evaluation of the long term effects of volcanoes, in particular on stratospheric ozone and other long term changes to the radiative properties of the stratosphere.
The last two major events produced a persistent cooling effect on the temperature of the lower stratosphere, which implied more energy getting into the lower climate system. This ‘forcing’ is being mis-attributed to AGW.
https://climategrog.wordpress.com/uah_tls_365d/
The bad news is that climate models are tuned to match climate during a period with sereral major eruptions. This has failed to match the post 2000 period because the erroneous attributions no longer work when there is not both GHE and volcanims.
If Agung goes off in a major way, it is likely that the models will appear to be about right again since they are tuned to work with a mix of GHE and volcanims.
Especially hot on the heels of a large El Nino, the energy from which is still dissipating.
Well of course it’s Global Warming, just like the Earthquakes in Mexico. Any port in a storm for AGW, they are in need of a good scare to get Climate Realists to see their point of view is correct regardless of just how absurd it is.
From George Carlin’s “Save the Planet” routine: “People go and build their homes on the slopes of an active volcano, and are SURPRISED when there’s lava in their living room?”
They wont because it’s not.
Don’t bet on it.
http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20170306-volcanoes-could-erupt-much-more-thanks-to-climate-change
Kinda like they didn’t blame the earthquake in Mexico on global warming..oh wait.
Michael
Well there you go. Article makes sense though. Hard to argue with.
Last comment from the BBC vid: “climate change is not only melting the glaciers, it’s also melting the earth”. Yeah, hard to argue with that ! /s
There is a massive magma hotspot directly under the glaciers in Iceland but they prefer to assume that it is “global warming ” which is melting the ice. Who can argue with such rigorous science?
Iceland has a lot of very minor activity, Even it did increase it will not have a global impact.
Well, the beeb’s argument could have merit, if this volcano was under a disappearing glacier.
HOLY SUBLIMATION BATMAN! The glacier seems to have completely evaporated! Bali is doomed! [sarc]
Simon,
Wow, I didn’t know there were glaciers on Bali. (sarc)
Greg,
+ many
About twice as long as it takes them to blame any interruption of warming on it. ‘The models are wrong because we didn’t anticipate the sulphur dioxide emissions from Angung…. Warming will resume soon, faster than ever.’
The pause was pre-emptive, knowing that the volcano was coming.
CO2 is so sneaky I’d expect nothing less. 🙂
It’s humans wot done it, them wid their fancy SUVs and heated mansions and all.
Now the warmistas can blame the imminent cooling period on this volcanic eruption.
Yes, this will provide a massive excuse for the models failing to match observations but it also points out the another flaw in various predictions out to 2100 : they do not provide any input for volcanic activity. While they can not know when they will happen, models runs with zero major eruptions will most definitely be wrong.
I know it’s SUVs that cause volcanoes and earthquakes because my science teacher taught it to me in skool today. It’s, like, SUVs are heavy, you know, and all those heavy SUVs are squishing down the earth and the pressure has to go somewhere and volcanoes are the escape valves and earthquakes happen where there are no escape valves. Isn’t my science teacher clever, Daddy? Oh! And Mummy says that her Disco is not big and fast enough to be safe when she drives me to skool and she needs a Range Rover SVR because that’s the fastest and then Mummy can escape volcanoes on the way to skool. Mummy! Mummy! Daddy’s face has gone all red and he’s saying lots of naughty words about my science teacher and he’s started to erupt.
See. I told you that SUVs cause volcanoes.
Sure with the noise of our motors we had awaken the god of fire that lives inside the mountain. He is in an angry mood.
We stayed on the mountain last March. Very pretty area compared to other more touristy spots that the Aussies have totally crapped up. We walked up a river that had been a sea of lava during the last eruption. That lava went all the way to the sea. Now you can’t tell it’s ever been anything other than a lush alley. A very fertile place. A lovely people too being Hindu rather than Muslim.
After that we went over to Gili Mino which is an island East of there. Sitting on a quiet beach watching the sun set behind Agung with a Mojito in hand was just the coolest thing to do.
Zetajoules of deep heat in the oceans being driven to Bali by unprecedented prevailing wind, likely stimulated by thermohaiine gradients.
I trust the warmist cabal are mounting a concerted effort putting a giant bag over the volcano to stop the release of all those gases – especially that nasty nasty carbon dioxide.
Seems to me that cooling could be on the way if this occurs.
Large eruptions does cause a temporary blip.
It’s not just large eruptions. From what I read, they also have to be at the right latitudes, and this one fits that bill like Pinatubo.
A temporary blip alongside a quiet sun, how to sort out the wheat from the chaff?
Mount Agung eruptions in March and April 1963 caused 0.3C to 0.4C temperature declines which lasted for 2 years on a declining impact basis. We don’t need this now.
More on those: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/257428344_The_1963-1964_eruption_of_Agung_volcano_Bali_Indonesia
Sounds about right Bill – the Agung eruption of ~1963 was the biggest since Krakatoa in 1883+, about the same size as El Chichon in 1982 but smaller than Pinatubo in 1991.
This is based on “Global and Hemispheric Mean Aerosol Optical Depth at 550 nm” at
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/strataer/tau.line_2012.12.txt
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/strataer/
[NASA GISS data so not sure how good it is.]
If Agung has a major eruption like 1963, can expect some global cooling, and will cooling primarily impact the Southern Hemisphere or the Northern Hemi as well?
Will Agung help push the Pacific further toward a La Nina?
This could be interesting…
Mount Agung is rumbling again.
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/strataer/
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1449574658453425&set=a.1012901982120697.1073741826.100002027142240&type=3&theater
The cooling effect may be magnified if this happens with fall not too far off for those of us in the NH.
This is a time when the Precautionary Principle does apply.
You don’t know when the hammer will fall but the cost of adapting is low.
Evacuate. Flee.
Get out of there for on this advice.
They haven’t been wrong that often. This time it’s worth it.
Yeah, there is a difference between predictions based on seismatic activity and advice based on unicorn farts.
If the animals are fleeing you know it’s going to erupt. Praying for everyone there.
But what about the trees hurrying upslope to escape climate change at lower elevations?
Won’t someone think of the deciduous?
Yes, it may well be the added weight of all those trees now growing at higher altitude that has destabilised the magma chambers, I just knew it had to be caused by AGW.
What the El Nino giveth, the volcano taketh away! The pause, around the corner, does lurk.
Didn’t know that monkeys and snakes were indicator species, I’ll keep my eyes pealed.
When you see the critters running, you should know it’s time to leave.
I hope that the people of Bali come out of this okay.
Any allusions to global warming and climate change in regard to this pending eruption are grossly inappropriate. People who are graceless enough to do that show their ignorance.
We will see more eruptions like this. The Ring of Fire never really settles down.
I’ve heard it speculated that as the sun quiets down the plate tectonics become more active. Is there a real correlation or is mostly smoke?
The connection has been proposed on the basis of the Little Ice Age which saw a significant increase in volcanic activity. There is no statistical evidence to support it though. Even if there was a correlation the causality would be muddled. During the LIA glaciers increased tremendously reaching their highest extent in the entire Holocene, and that must have put an enormous pressure on the crust at certain locations. That factor doesn’t apply now, as glaciers are at a very low point, probably the lowest in 5000 years.
Another possibilities like solar wind affecting the mantle look very far fetched.
Rhoda, I can hear Leif’s footsteps coming this way.
Well, you know, Bill AL said that at the center of the earth was “several hundred thousand degrees hot”. That would cause a lot of expansion? If it dropped 600,000 it would cause a lot of contraction. Righttttttt, Big Al.
old construction worker, Gore said several million degrees ! not several hundred thousand degrees. I just listened to the mp3 I made of that show where the airhead said it to Conan.
MRW – was that Conan the Barbarian interviewing Gore ? That would have exposed Gore’s knowledge ruthlessly no doubt.
Gore may have mixed earth’s core up with the temperature of the sun’s corona.
OK. We have had two strong hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, two strong earthquakes in Mexico, two strong typhoons in Asia. Now we might have two strong volcanic eruptions.
Clearly the gods are angry and demand human sacrifices. If we don’t deliver, we know that “trouble comes in threes.”
I think this is just ordinary normal behaviour on planet Earth. The problem is, the last 150 years have been exceptionally productive for humans to thrive and multiply. Combined with the advent of fossil fuel use that kick started us into the industrial revolution in a very short time frame that allowed so many people at once.
However, volcanic events are probably what exacerbate the beginnings of ice ages when Milankovitch cycles are ripe for natural long term cooling, which is why such ice age events can be full blown within a decade. Let’s hope that we don’t get a series of volcanic events going on all around the world, or we may get some crop failures that make our existence for 7.5 B people very tenable.
If humans have managed .7 degree C over 150 years from our existence on the planet, then I will gladly take that as an insurance policy against severe global cooling. 85%-90% of the last 2.5 million years has had the planet in an age age, so we should be happy that things have went so well with the climate since the depths of the Little Ice Age. We are trending back to that normal over the long term, but let’s hope it isn’t this century.
Yeah… But that’s three pairs… or six.
If we get three sets of six… then it will be doomsday… 6-6-6… 😆
David – I couldn’t resist this: –
We all know that 666 is the Number of the Beast -, but did you know that: –
$665.99 = Recommended Retail Price of the Beast
$699.25 = Price of the Beast plus 5% sales tax
$1879.95 = Price of the Beast, with all accessories
$655.56 = Wal-Mart price of the Beast
$654.96 = Tesco price of the Beast – and you get Clubcard TM points!
$6666.66 = Harrods Price of a very Superior Beast
$666 = hourly rate of the Beast’s lawyer
£666 = hourly rate of the Beast’s London lawyer [plus VAT].
$333 = ‘Half off’ sale on the Sign of the Beast
1-900-666-0666 = Live Beasts! Call Now! Only $6.66/minute. Over 18 only please.
£666 666 = Income of the Beast
Route 666 = Highway of the Beast
B666 = by-way of the Beast
E-666 = European Autoroute du Beast/Beaststrasse
666 F = Oven temperature for succulent, well-roast Beast
666 C = Oven temperature for well-charred Beast
$66 = Small joint of Beast
666k = Retirement plan of the Beast
6.66 % = 5 year CD interest rate at First Beast National Bank, $666 minimum deposit.
666MHz = CPU of the Beast
666CSi = BMW of the Beast
668 = Next-door neighbour of the Beast
664 = Next-door neighbour of the Beast, also
667, 665, 663 = close neighbours of the Beast
UB-666 = unemployable Beast claim form
666A, 666B and 666C = Tenants of the beast
999 = Sign of the Australian Beast
333 = Number of the adolescent Beast
6-6-6 = Whyte notation wheel arrangement of the Beast’s Locomotive
6-66 = bowling analysis of the [cricketing] Beast
6-6-6-6 = wheel arrangement of the Big Beast’s Articulated Locomotive
00666 = Zip code of the Beast
HE66 6LL = Post Code of the Beast
EZY666 = Flight of the Beast
666.000000 = Beast to 6 decimal places
670 = Beast to 2 significant figures
Auto
Auto, you left something out: http://blog.beastieboys.com/
Auto, that’s great!
This could be due to Merkel winning the election. She is an important promoter of the CAGW story so now it is up to the volcano gods to stop her.
Funny, I have been predicting a deep cold in Europe for this winter since early this year, but for different reasons. I have always wondered if part of what causes deep drops during solar minimums is that it is also a time of heightened volcanic activity. So if the timing is right for any particular eruption, then it enhances the cold trend causing those deep drops. Once that level of cold sets in, it is not easily abated except for over a period of years or longer again dependent on multiple other factors.
Strong volcanic eruptions that reach the stratosphere are followed by a warmer than usual winter, so a volcanic eruption now would not help you with your prediction of a cold winter.
I thought that the immediate effect of a large eruption would be cooling for the short term.
It is, during the summer. But during the winter the stratospheric sulfates interfere with the solar and quasi-biennial oscillation mechanisms that disrupt the polar vortex and decrease winter temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. There are several scientific articles on this particular.
Thanks for the explanation.
It will depend on whether or not Agung produces the volume of ash that Krakatau produced.
Here’s a 9/6/2000 article about it: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Volcano/
I don’t think Agung has that kind of volume, but it does have an eruption cycle.
Of course, if we do have a warmer than usual winter, the volcano won’t be blamed for it. On the other hand, ‘warmer than usual winter’ has more to do with where you are than anything else.
You would think the evacuation of a quarter million people for an imminent volcanic eruption would be breaking news on the MSM sites… can’t find it (you can google it though.) The MSM sites still seem to be obsessing over a bunch over pampered, tattooed, millionaires displaying their contempt and disrespect for the nation where they have had the opportunity to succeed as they have.
The left-wing liberal democrat media can only report one thing at a time.
That article comes off a little like Monty Python when I read it, just sayin’.
Or Douglas Adams… 😎
From Wikipedia:
On February 18, 1963, local residents heard loud explosions and saw clouds rising from the crater of Mount Agung.
On February 24, lava began flowing down the northern slope of the mountain, eventually traveling 7 km in the next 20 days.
On March 17, the volcano erupted (VEI 5), sending debris 8 to 10 km into the air and generating massive pyroclastic flows. These flows devastated numerous villages, killing approximately 1500 people.
Cold lahars caused by heavy rainfall after the eruption killed an additional 200.
A second eruption on May 16 led to pyroclastic flows that killed another 200 inhabitants.
In September 2017, an increase of seismic activity around the volcano raised the alert level to the highest level and over 15,000 people evacuated their houses around the volcano.
The Indonesian National Board for Disaster Management declared a 12-kilometer exclusion zone around the volcano on September 24.
What are they fleeing for!!!!! All they have to do is pass a law, and then tax the behavior? Then it won’t happen!!!!!!!!!! Silly woggs.
It would be nice if it held off and let the cooling oceans bring us back to a growing Pause. If she blows they have an excuse for the new Pause and we will have to wait 3yrs for this to work its way through and the rationalizations and “new” studies will keep the fantasy going. We need a big study that shows that over 3-5yrs, the effect volcanoes have on temperature is neutral. I recall Willis Eschenbach did such an investigation.
We need a big study that shows that over 3-5yrs, the effect volcanoes have on temperature is neutral.
Why do we “need” that? What we need is something which assesses the long term impact of volcanoes, and that clearly is NOT neutral, as can be witnessed by the changes in the lower stratosphere. That is one of key assumptions that leads to false attribution and models running hot.
The cooling effect of volcanoes should leave a persistently cooler planet not a temporary dip, unless the climate system reacts to counter this ( via negative feedbacks ). However, climate models counter this with an exaggerated GHE pumped up by ASSUMED water vapour feedbacks.
Their problem is: if they model a feedback to counter volcanic cooling, they will also have a feedback which counters GHE: no more sky dragon.
All climate models just assume a volcanic forcing which is proportional to AOD measurements. That can not account for the persistent effects on stratospheric composition. If the stratosphere cools, it is blocking less incoming solar. Guess where that energy ends up .
https://climategrog.wordpress.com/uah_tls_365d/
+1.
https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha02600e.html
“It is important to be cautious against over interpretation of either the observations or the model results. The observations of aerosol properties and atmospheric temperatures are not nearly as detailed and accurate as desired, and we cannot be certain that the temperature variations are not in large part due to other mechanisms or simply to climatic noise. The model for the climate system is grossly oversimplified and particularly fails to properly account for three-dimensional transports and cloud feedbacks.”
Authorities are a little more active there have been a couple of situations in Indonesian history (1984,2010), people stopped and prayed to a volcano and died.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2010/10/201010286050424424.html
This could be very bad. I was fortunate enough to visit Bali some years ago. It’s a beautiful, beautiful place but the poverty we saw there was simply heartbreaking. The people cannot possibly be well prepared for this. Good luck to them.
The people in Bali are a lot better off than those in Lombok. And they have their own volcano to worry about.
Check the picture of the 1995 eruption!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rinjani
I’ve been there several times and never have seen this heart breaking poverty you speak of. The people might not have much money but they have a place to sleep and plenty to eat and that’s a better diet than we have, decent medical care and no climate extremes. I’ve seen pagents where the who village is dressed to the 9’s carrying enough food to feed an army all for the village temple. They might not have the latest I Phone but doubt if they’re heart broken about it.
Maybe they haven’t found a virgin maiden to sacrifice yet.
“Somewhere on a South Pacific island
Sits a young man staring at the surf
His native girlfriend died a death quite violent
In a tribal sacrifice made to the Earth”
“He’d say, Leilani, don’t go to the volcano
He’d say, please don’t go to the volcano”
CtM:
where does this exaggerated headline figure come from? I see 11.000 evacuation in the link at Stuff.
Guardian ( source AFP ) is quoting 34,000.
It appears the story has been modified since I created the post and linked it. Look at the URL “http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/97163383/240-000-flee-imminent-Bali-volcano-eruption”
I’ll modify the title accordingly.
thanks Charles. A quick google of “240,000 flee” confirms this is what Suff were originally claiming and have now deleted with zero indication of an edit having been done. Not good. This figure also is being reported by many other websites. Not sure who the origin of this exaggerated fake news claim was but as they say the a lies can get half way round the world before the truth has even got its boots on.
With modern technology, make that all the way around the world.
The origin may be Sydmey Morning Herald which WAS reporting “are expected to” two days ago and is now saying “thousands are …”. Stuff seems to have been parroting this claim and spicing it up a bit by changing “expected to” into “are fleeing”.
Well, that’s the way we ended up with 6 degrees of temp rise and 18 meters of sea level rise from Al Gore and Irma’s 4 to 6 ft of storm swell getting reported as 17ft by the Guardian.
It’s all about out bidding the previously reported claim to get more clicks.
None of these outlets bother marking when they make a correction. At least WUWT is honest when a change is made.
AP quoting ~50,000 today.
“Disaster officials say nearly 50,000 people have fled the region around the mountain and the number is rising. It includes people who left voluntarily as well as those told to evacuate from at least 9 and up to 12 kilometers (6 to 8 miles) from the crater, depending on location.”
This eruption is caused by the global warming (:-)). We must stop burning fuels.
Any temperature decline due to Agung’s eruption will depend on the volume of fly ash in the ejecta. When Montserrat erupted in the Caribbean, there were some panicky projections about global cooling, but instead, Monsterrat buried the towns in its vicinity with pyroclastic flows and ejecta. The speculated “cooling” didn’t happen,
Agung is a stratovolcano and can produce a high volume of particulates as well as hot ballistic ejecta (big chunks of rock) and lava flows.
Volcano Discovery has an ongoing survey of almost all volcanoes, especially those in the Ring of Fire. So far, they report 11,000 people evacuating the area of the pending eruption. Whether or not Agung produces a high enough volume of ash (really, it’s just pumice) remains to be seen, but based on its 1963 eruption, it may not do that.
You can get info on it here: https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/agung.html
In response to what The Gorebore said about Earth’s internal temperature, it was “millions of degrees two kilometers below the surface”. One kilometer is .62 mile, two-thirds of a mile. The crust is mostly 25 to 27 miles thick, riding on the mantle, except in those places like the Afar rift zone, where it has been eroded away by the mantle. If you’re interested in that area, Erta Ale is part of it and has gone from being a mere burper, slowly producing an occasional lava flow in 2006 to a lake of fire now. I think the crust there is about a mile and a half thick, and camels can’t even go in there any more, never mind silly humans without the proper footgear. If you stand in one place for very long, wearing shoes with synthetic soles, the soles will melt. Not a joke. That’s the real danger zone, not Agung. Al Gore is an overpaid and very stupid individual who gets the spotlight because he has money.
Hi Sara and thank you for your interesting posts.
Here is the Hadcrut3 plot of global temperatures for 1960-1970:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1960/to:1970
It appears that Agung in 1963 had a cooling impact on global surface temperature of ~0.4C
I posted this last week, re quantifying the cooling impact of major volcanoes in the Lower Troposphere.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/09/20/from-the-the-stupid-it-burns-department-science-denial-not-limited-to-political-right/comment-page-1/#comment-2616345
NOT A WHOLE LOTTA GLOBAL WARMING GOIN’ ON!
Unlike the deeply flawed computer climate models cited by the IPCC, Bill Illis has created a temperature model that actually works in the short-term (multi-decades). It shows global temperatures correlate primarily with NIno3.4 area temperatures – an area of the Pacific Ocean that is about 1% of global surface area. There are only four input parameters, with Nino3.4 being the most influential. CO2 has almost no influence. So what drives the Nino3.4 temperatures? Short term, the ENSO. Longer term, probably the integral of solar activity – see Dan Pangburn’s work.
Bill’s post is here.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/23/lewandowsky-and-cook-deniers-cannot-provide-a-coherent-alternate-worldview/comment-page-1/#comment-2306066
Bill’s equation is:
Tropics Troposphere Temp = 0.288 * Nino 3.4 Index (of 3 months previous) + 0.499 * AMO Index + -3.22 * Aerosol Optical Depth volcano Index + 0.07 Constant + 0.4395*Ln(CO2) – 2.59 CO2 constant
Bill’s graph is here – since 1958, not a whole lotta global warming goin’ on!
My simpler equation using only the Nino3.4 Index Anomaly is:
UAHLTcalc Global (Anom. in degC, ~four months later) = 0.20*Nino3.4IndexAnom + 0.15
Data: Nino3.4IndexAnom is at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices
It shows that much or all of the apparent warming since ~1982 is a natural recovery from the cooling impact of two major volcanoes – El Chichon and Pinatubo.
Here is the plot of my equation:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1106756229401938&set=a.1012901982120697.1073741826.100002027142240&type=3&theater
I added the Sato Global Mean Optical Depth Index (h/t Bill Illis) to compensate for the cooling impact of major volcanoes, so the equation changes to:
UAHLTcalc Global (Anom. in degC, ~four months later) = 0.20*Nino3.4IndexAnom + 0.15 – 8*SatoGlobalMeanOpticalDepthIndex
The “Sato Index” is factored by about -8 and here is the result – the Orange calculated global temperature line follows the Red actual UAH global LT temperature line reasonably well, with one brief deviation at the time of the Pinatubo eruption.
Here is the plot of my new equation, with the “Sato” index:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1443923555685202&set=a.1012901982120697.1073741826.100002027142240&type=3&theater
I agree with Bill’s conclusion that
THE IMPACT OF INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC CO2 ON GLOBAL TEMPERATURE IS SO CLOSE TO ZERO AS TO BE MATERIALLY INSIGNIFICANT.
Regards, Allan
Krakatoa 1883+ vs Pinatubo 1991 – Hadcrut3 Global Temperatures
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1449802748430616&set=a.1012901982120697.1073741826.100002027142240&type=3&theater
Thanks, Allen. I left out the part about sulfur dioxide and its aerosol impact on the atmosphere, because that depends on the height of the eruption. It does have an effect, but I did not want to speculate on it.
The effect of sulphuric acid aerosols is not “speculation”. The solid particles drop out in a couple of months. Virtually all the cooling effect is from the aerosols that last for 3 or 4 years.
If you left it out you probably did not know what you were talking about.
See Lacis et al paper linked above.
Fly ash? Where is the coal seam that it will erupt through?
Peanut gallery: Fly ash is what the Romans called volcanic ash when they were learning to make concrete that would harden underwater. At the time, they were more likely to use charcoal than coal. They used it to build harbors in their various shipping ports, including Caesarea and Alexandria in Egypt.
sara, the Romans used volcanic ash – there are plentiful deposits around Rome and in southern Italy. Not fly ash. Not charcoal.
There are massive cavities under Rome from extraction of volcanic ash (ancient quarrying being done by tunnelling, not open pits)
https://www.livescience.com/41559-rome-quarry-collapse.html
Cool. Fireworks. In a place I don’t give a shhhhit about. I might look at a video on youtube, if I can be bothered.
Alex wrote: “Cool. Fireworks. In a place I don’t give a shhhhit about.”
Alex, a far better man than you wrote the following:
‘No Man is an Island’
No man is an island, alone of itself;
Every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main;
If a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is diminished, even as a promontory were,
even as a manor of thy friends or of thine own were;
Any man’s death concerns me, because I am concerned with mankind.
And therefore send not to know for whom the bell tolls;
It tolls for thee.
MEDITATION XVII
Devotions upon Emergent Occasions
John Donne, 1624
“Cool. Fireworks. In a place I don’t give a shhhhit about.”
If a clod like Alex was washed away I doubt that any continent would be dimininshed.
Alex, if you had bothered to read what I wrote, then the erosion of the Earth’s crust – which you sit on – by the mantle’s heat and churning activity from underneath from 25 miles of thickness to barely 1.5 miles should be of interest to you. Erta Ale is labeled the most dangerous volcano in the world because it sits directly on that rift zone. The rift goes all the way down Africa’s east coast from Djibouti through Tanzania.
The erosion is partly from gases confirmed by a geologist and partly from heat, just as the 5.8 earthquake in Virginia in 2011 was so widespread and so damaging because it was a piece of the Earth’s crust under Virginia that finally broke away and fell into the mantle.
Africa is tracked as moving slightly northeast. The East Africa rift zone, which is the location of Erta Ale is showing signs of active rift spreading, which would normally take place on the ocean floor. It is 509 feet below sea level. There are three major plates that meet there and their have been spreading apart for millions of years. We just happen to be able to witness what is going on there for ourselves.
At some point, the East Africa rift zone will open and volcanic rifting activity will increase When that happens, well, maybe we should be able to move to another planet or something, but the Earth is in control of this event. We are not.
You should not dismiss it. I said that until 2006, Erta Ale was a low-yield basaltic volcano that was on the list for volcano groupies to visit. It has since 2006 developed an active lava lake in its caldera, with fissures in the same area opening and outgassing constantly, and slowly getting bigger. The gasses are so poisonous that volcanologists and geologists have to wear breathing equipment to merely spend an hour or so there. I thought by now the fissure might have opened wider, but some of the pressure from the mantle is probably being relieved by the lava lake’s activity uptick
You may think it’s of no interest to you, but it isn’t the only place rumbling that has been dormant or showing low activity for a very long time. The Alba Hills volcano complex sits just southwest of Rome. It’s been dormant for 35,000 years. Now it’s showing signs of activity, including steam vents.
Stay tuned. It can get even more interesting.
Just realized I misspelled Alban Hills. My bad. I could slow down a little bit. Thought I caught it. Sorry.
Here’s a little more on Coli Albani: https://watchers.news/2016/07/13/study-finds-alban-hills-volcano-near-rome-is-starting-a-new-eruptive-cycle-italy/
Hmm, maybe Campi Flegrei would galvanise your interest. I vote we don’t put it to the test.
I’m concerned that it’s more than just a volcanic cycle starting up after being quiet for a while. If you remember that terrible quake a few years ago in L’Aquila (2009) which flattened that town, those quakes have continued. The most recent was a 6.6 quake in October last year in Norcia, which destroyed the basilica of St. Benedict.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/30/italy-earthquake-66-magnitude-quake-hits-centre-of-country-near/
It appears to me, however tenuous it may be, that there is a connection among the continuing Italian quakes, the increasing evidence of potential eruptions, and what is going on in Africa. I know that sounds far-fetched, but there is ongoing activity at the Santorini rift. https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/santorini-earthquakes.html
Etna is part of that complex, too, and has been erupting in increasing volume for several months now, not just the usual lava flows and fireworks at night..
Something’s going on. We must be watchful.
The Wall Street Journal reports …
JAKARTA, Indonesia—The number of people fleeing a rumbling volcano on the Indonesian resort island of Bali rose to nearly 50,000, with the country’s disaster agency saying an eruption appears imminent after a half-century of calm.
[ … }
The number of evacuees shot up to 48,540 Monday from about 15,000 before the weekend, [ spokesman for the disaster agency, Mr. Sutopo Purwo ] Nugroho added.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bali-volcano-eruption-imminent-nearly-50-000-flee-1506341691
A very famous volcano
for testing the models
https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha02600e.html
that was written in 1978 😉
The same crew did a proper physics based study of the impact of volcanoes using data from El Chichon eruption in 1982. Lacis et al 1992 : “Climate Forcing by Stratospheric Aerosols”
Then there was Mt P, in 1991 for which we also have energy budget measurements from ERBE.
One would think there would be quite a good handle on the question by now. But no, Hansen’s team brought out another paper in 2002 in which they abandoned their earlier work on proper physics based modelling of the ejecta in favour of parameter tweaking aimed at reconciling model output with the temperature record. This involved reducing the magnitude of the volcanic forcing from around 30 W/m2 x AOD to 20 W/m2 time AOD, ie it went from being a serious scientific model to a fudge factor. The temperature record was not changed so this means that they were making climate artificially more sensitive in order get the output they wanted.
This makes a lie of all the claims of GCM being “physics based”.
If we actually look at the ERBE data from Mt P, we find something very similar to the Lacis et al paper from 1992 : 30 W/m2
https://judithcurry.com/2015/02/06/on-determination-of-tropical-feedbacks/
Also since the climate takes time to react you will not get the right scaling if you try a direct regression against AOD. You need to find the transient response and scale that.
That is the method with confirms Lacis et al results based on physical modelling of the ejecta and aerosols. It seems they were doing some pretty good mathematical modelling back in 1992. Then something changed their path.
“This makes a lie of all the claims of GCM being “physics based”.
wrong.
here is the thing Greg.
nobody cares what you think because you dont publish.
blog comments will get you nowhere. took me 4 years to figure that out.
so dont expect an invite to the red team
dont expect anyone to take you seriously.
you have to step up and actually write, document, archive and publish.
or
no cookie.
Brutal fact. I wish the world were different, but its not.
Sensible and thoughtful comment , thanks.
There is also eruption activity going on with Ambae, a major volcano on Vanuatu.
https://vanuatudigest.com/2017/09/25/ambae-volcano-vanuatu-government-declares-state-of-emergency/
It’s putting out quite a plume. Rather far from Agung on Bali. There is quite a bit going on in those islands, and even though they aren’t close to each other, both volcanoes are capable of putting out a high volume of particulates and gasses.
This should be interesting.
Large s hemisphere volcanic eruptions result in a decrease in Arctic sea ice levels…
Which should be interesting.
I keep seeing news stories saying that the EQ depths are climbing upwards, but I haven’t found a decent site that provides near realtime data, including actual depths or magnitudes.
Does anyone know of such a site?
This is an almost too-realtime site. Looks like the latest EQ at Agung was at a 5 km depth.
https://magma.vsi.esdm.go.id/
You could try this one, too: https://earthquake-report.com/2017/09/26/moderate-earthquake-bali-region-indonesia-september-26-2017/
Latest quake is 4.2M, may have been felt all over the island, indicative of magma rising or trying to rise to the chamber.
There may be more info soon.
This comes from Accuweather: 75,000 now evacuating, threat level raised to 4 (as indicated in article update up above)
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/fears-of-volcanic-eruption-force-more-than-75-000-to-evacuate-in-bali/70002796
Worthy of comment is the fact that this story on wuwt is currently number five on Bing search for news of the imminent eruption.
BBC now reporting 140,000 people have fled their homes.
“The 12km (7.5-mile) evacuation zone was implemented after experts warned the volcano could erupt for the first time since 1963. About 500 makeshift shelters have been set up for about 70,000 people within this area, but tens of thousands of people living outside of the immediate danger zone have also fled.”
Bali volcano: Thousands told to return despite eruption fears.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41452093