Michael Bastasch
4:08 PM 09/18/2017
Former President Al Gore said Monday that Hurricane Harvey brought once in 500,000 year rainfall to parts of Texas, only to be questioned by scientists challenging his data.
“Within the last two weeks we have had two more record-breaking, climate-connected storms,” Gore said at an World Economic Forum summit in New York City.
Gore said that Harvey brought once in 25,000 year rainfall to the greater Houston area, adding that some “parts of Texas received totals that represented a once in 500,000 year event.”
Gore likely got the figures from a report released by the company MetStat, which found “localized maximum recurrence intervals of over 500,000 years or a 0.0002% chance of occurring in any given year.”
Many scientists, however, have shied away from using such phrasing to describe rainfall because of the lack of data. Even MetStat’s analysis admitted “these estimates contain considerable uncertainty.”
“Dang, that’s right up there with his claim on NBC’s tonight Show with Conan O’Brien that the temperature inside the Earth is ‘several million degrees’ at ‘2 kilometers or so down,’” Climatologist Roy Spencer told The Daily Caller News Foundation.
Spencer is the author of a new e-book debunking Gore’s “Inconvenient Sequel” film. Spencer’s book, “An Inconvenient Deception,” has outsold on Amazon Kindle the e-book Gore released with his movie.
Spencer’s e-book reached number 17 on Amazon’s most sold ranking for the week of Sept. 10. Gore’s e-book is ranked 46,059 on the Kindle Store.
Spencer has cautioned readers of his blog to ignore “claims of 500 year flood events” associated with Harvey, “because we don’t have enough measurements over time to determine such things, especially when they also depend on our altering of the landscape over time.”
Gore’s claim of a 500,000 year rain event has even less evidence to back it up. People have not been measuring Texas rainfall long enough to say with any strong certainty this is true. The rainfall data of Texas that does exist can also be spotty the farther back one looks.
Harvey brought record levels of rainfall to Texas in late August, causing widespread flooding and damage to southeastern Texas and parts of Louisiana. Houston got about 50 inches of rain.
Gore tied the storm to man-made global warming. He claimed that Harvey was able to pick up power by crossing warmer-than-normal waters over the Gulf of Mexico and stalling over land due to Arctic Sea ice melt.
“It is a global phenomena and it is getting worse,” Gore said.
Spencer has also taken issue with this claim, pointing to data showing no apparent trend in hurricane activity, despite a warming Gulf of Mexico. He found that “major hurricanes don’t really care whether the Gulf is above average or below average in temperature.”
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See Dr. Roy Spencer’s new e-book “Why hurricanes can’t be blamed on Global Warming”
In my line of duty even less than biblical claims must be proven. While recognising the approach maybe a bit extreme in political circles, Al could work his imagination closer to socially acceptable consensus on the topic. There are plenty of jigsaw puzzles to help out. Could be beneficial to his idle thumbs too.
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“Former President Al Gore”
No, that was a previous bullet your country dodged, luckily.
Well, I am so grateful Al Gore invented the internet./sarc
Other than doom-mongering, I don’t see much utility for such a vast timescale. I imagine the topography and local environs have changed dramatically in half a million years, so what does that figure even mean?
marnof,
You might find this (a little old, now) of interest.
http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/how-the-isthmus-of-panama-put-ice-in-the-arctic
“The closing of the Central American Seaway initially may have warmed Earth’s climate, but then set the stage for glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere at 2.7 million years ago.”
Maybe weather and climate for TX & other south and southeastern states experienced big changes beginning at 2.7 million years ago?
Well we all know how ManBearPig loves a massage, especially when it comes to numbers.
Ewww.
You’ve made my day, thanks.
The surface area of the earth is 510 Million Sq KM. So 10 Sq KM of the earth would have on average a 500K Year event each year. So what is Gore’s point? Is Houston somehow special?
Aagh. I meant 1000 SQ KM not 10.
500,000 year rainfall? Since modern humans evolved only 200,000 years ago. Maybe Al Gore’s pal Homo Erectus was measuring rainfall in Texas 500,000 years ago. They have the same brain size
This author cannot even get his facts straight – Gore was never President for a start.
The Caribbean Islands are as flat as a pancake. Totally destroyed in many areas. When will you climate sceptics get it?
“The Caribbean Islands are as flat as a pancake”
No, get your facts straight… please consult a geography book, many are mountainous.
As a result of the AGW-exacerbated hurricanes that have rolled over them this year.
They are no different for any major historical hurricanes recorded.
Ivankinsman, do you live on any of those islands? They aren’t all as flat as a pancake. They aren’t all built out of coral sands like the Bahamas. Many are, in fact, volcanic in origin. Perhaps you should visit The Soufriere Hills volcano, for example, drove everyone off Montserrat when it erupted a few years ago.
Here’s a little info for you. http://www.summitpost.org/caribbean-island-peaks/170902
Misunderstanding. Many parts of these islands have been completely flattened by the AGW-exacerbated hurricanes that have rolled over them one after the other. Even the old islanders are stating they have seen destruction like this. Time to get real lady…
Ivankinsman:
“Bowled them over”?
My my, is Guam still in danger from tipping over?
*rolled
Ivan,
Perhaps the “misunderstanding” is on your part. Did you really mean, “Even the old islanders are stating they have seen destruction like this”? I believe you’re the one who needs an English lesson.
Why are you algore disciples like to take the Lords name in vain? I bet you wouldn’t do that to Muhammad.
Contrary to what you seem to believe skeptics are a heterogenous group of individuals forming their own opinions themselves. You are not an authority on their thoughts. The sooner you accept it, the quicker you’ll be in compliance with UN human rights declaration.
Based on the Al’s performance so far, I don’t buy his commercial products.
Now when you are spreading your misanthropic faith on the suffering of weather victims, I’ve taken note storm called Irma ravaged the private island of climate misanthropist hypocrite Richard Branson and Castro’s tragic Marxist–Leninist socialist human right oppression experiment island first – before calming down and hitting democratic civilisation on the continent.
Not sure the 25% of residents of the Florida Keys whose homes were destroyed by Irma would agree with you on this point i.e. your fellow Americans.
In accordance with Malleus Maleficarum storms are caused by witches, but I presume your god is gender neutral.
Ivan,
Your ignorance knows no bounds.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/sfl-1919-hurricane-story.html
The 1935 hurricane has already been mentioned, but the 1919 hurricane did the most damage to the Florida Keys in the past century, with loss of 800 lives.
Your ignorance is amazing. Before you spout off nonsense you should at least bother to look at actual historical data. Check out the 1935 hurricane that hit the Keys. The 1900 hurricane that hit Galveston Tx. The 1938 hurricane that pummeled New England. Oh, and there are many more examples. All well before any propaganda about Global Warming.
Oh, and the storms this year are a return to normalcy after a record period of a lack of major hurricanes hitting the US. I could go on but it’s wasted breath on fanatics like you.
Perhaps you should have consulted a topographical map of the Caribbean before you opened your mouth and promptly inserted your foot?
Jesus … learn some f@ur momisugly@@ur momisugly##g English.
I am fairly sure Ivan is referring to buildings being flattened, not mountians.
However, his argument is a clear logical fallacy, similar to “Think of the Children”. Ivan, we all realise that Harvey, Irma (I was in Florida for Irma), and Maria have caused a lot of human suffering. However, human suffering does not logically flow to CAGW. Lets face it, not matter what is happening this year, 2005 was a much more active Atlantic Cyclone year. Draw a line from there, and we are in a negative pattern. If over the next decade or so, we saw a gradual increase in cyclonic activity, we could start to look at the cause. However, as of now, THERE IS NO INCREASE IN GLOBAL CYCLONIC ACTIVITY. Anyone suggesting that there is a human CO2 link is only telling us that there is no problem from CO2. There has been lots of CO2 emitted, but no increase in cyclonic activity. The logical conclusion is that CO2 is OK and does not contribute to cyclones.
Ivan Kinsman: Freelance proofreader/editor and quality controller/manager
Swietokrzyskie District, Skarzysko County, Poland
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ivan-kinsman-27460a75
“It’s like teaching English elementary class.”
Why would anybody want English lessons from a Polish “proofreader” who doesn’t evan proofread his own words?
even
Ivan,
Many Caribbean islands, indeed most of them, have rugged topography. The highest point on Hispaniola is 10,614 feet, in the Dominican Republic. It is a tectonically active region.
Ivan is wrong as usual:
“The Caribbean Islands are as flat as a pancake…”
Virgin Islands.
and,
Saba.
http://www.gazettextra.com/storyimage/JG/20160514/ARTICLES/160519877/EP/1/1/EP-160519877.jpg
and,
Jamaica.
http://www.gazettextra.com/storyimage/JG/20160514/ARTICLES/160519877/EP/1/1/EP-160519877.jpg
Shall I go on?
You once again said something profoundly stupid.
Learn some English. As flat as a pancake is what is called a metaphor. A metaphor has a different meaning to a literal meaning. In the case the buildings and infrastructure on the islands have been flattened ‘like a pancake’. Christ – It’s like teaching English elementary class.
Ivan,
You learn some English.
You didn’t say, “The Caribbean islands hit by Irma have been rolled flat as a pancake”. You said that, “The Caribbean islands are flat as a pancake”. Which isn’t true, anyway.
The last time that no structure was left standing on a Caribbean island after a hurricane was in 1780,
I suspect the author made a simple typo by leaving the word “vice”.
(Or maybe he just couldn’t bring himself to say that Al’s “vice” is in anyway “former”.8-)
I know it was a typo.
I’m well practiced in the almost-lost art of Typo-ing.
“I suspect the author made a simple typo by leaving OUT the word “vice”.”
Yeah, keep on rockin’ man
Former President Al Gore ???
I thought he was President of Vice.
“Climate connected storms” ? Arent they all climate connected?
Exactly what I was thinking!
Some politicians you can’t believe a word they say and Gore is one of them.
If he told me it was raining I would have to look outside to confirm it.
Every claim on here by him is either false or impossible to check.
Huston is built on a traditional flood plain so I don’t see how anyone could be surprised that it flooded when a Hurricane hit the area.
Really, the only unusual aspect is that Harvey sat in place for 4 days. That was a result of the specific atmospheric conditions present as it arrived in Texas. These was really just a random change issue, having nothing to do with Human CO2.
Imagine Gore trying to “show” an audience where a 500k-year rain event would be on a graph. Instead of a scissors lift, he’d need a giant crane. It’d be awesome.
Just looking at man-bear-pig gives my heart palps. Absolutely detest that SOB!
A 500,000 year storm event is impossible to define with any dataset available on earth today.
For purposes of estimating floods, storm return periods of up to 500 years used,but obviously with each progressively longer return period, the less confidence in the calculated rainfall depth. Hence engineers don’t fool around with very long return periods but rather base very large flood event calculations on what is called “Probable Maximum Precipitation” or PMP. The PMP is statistically calculated based upon available data. It’s definition is:
“Theoretically, the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is physically possible over a given size storm area at a particular geographical location at a certain time of year.”
Note that it takes into account the storm duration as well as the area of the watershed. The longer the duration, the greater the precipitation possible, but the rainfall intensity necessarily trends lower. The larger the watershed, the lower the rainfall because of the effect of very intense storms over very small areas is naturally greater.
A meteorological consultancy prepared an analysis of the actual rainfall depth-area-duration data for Harvey with the theoretical PMP values. Their results are published at chrome-extension://oemmndcbldboiebfnladdacbdfmadadm/http://www.appliedweatherassociates.com/uploads/1/3/8/1/13810758/awa-harvey-pmp-asdso.pdf. The data from Harvey thus adds to the database of extreme events and would be expected to have a positive effect on the theoretical PMP events for Texas.
Note that except for three depth-are-duratoin combinations under the Tropical PMP (i.e., theoretical maximums for tropical storm events), the effects on PMP were only about 10% or less higher post Harvey than pre Harvey. For general PMP and average PMP, the Harvey rainfall data had no measurable effect on PMP.
Effectively Harvey demonstrated that PMP basically holds and is reliable as a measure of PMP. Nothing about Harvey “broke the bank” on rainfall estimating, even though it resulted in the all time high precip for the Houston area. As might be expected when a major Cat 5/5 storm pops up in the western Gulf of Mexico, proceeds north, and through the flukes of influencing high and low pressure systems that steer hurricanes, caused it to park over SE Texas for an extraordinarily long, 156 hour period.
Gore,in his usual way lifted a statistic that was practically worthless from the start:
“Gore likely got the figures from a report released by the company MetStat, which found “localized maximum recurrence intervals of over 500,000 years or a 0.0002% chance of occurring in any given year.”
He is a con artist,with a lot of warmist suckers out there hanging on every misleading,lying word he utters.
He is a COWARD,who will not debate anyone.
Like the Fortune 1000 and many governments, Gore is in the action phase now, not the talking or debating phase. He is not wasting his time debating skeptics.
I think Al only said that because he’s positioning himself to head up “The Blue Team”.
“Former President Al Gore ” Since when did he get a raise?. I am pretty sure he lost to George Bush after the Florida ballot count fiasco. Wonder if this was a typo or wishful thinking.
Definitely a Typo-of-Omission.
It was not the figure of speech “ELLIPSIS”.
Outside chance it was “TAPEINOSIS: or, Demeaning”. (You know, rubbing it in that he lost.8-)
Nobody would legitimately try to extrapolate rainfall event data to get to a 500,000 year event. But since they did…the MetStat link shows that this 500,000 year event was of the 5-day duration variety. A 5-day event is about as long as you’re going to get, and at a frequency of 500,000 years, that should be biblical flooding anywhere, especially with widespread coverage over the Houston area. And considering all of the impervious area added to Houston, the flooding should be even more biblical than it would be in a rural area. But the extrapolated estimates of flood events said it was maybe a 500 or 1,000 year event. This makes the assertion of a 500,000 year, 5-day rain event look even more ridiculous.
This is difficult to admit considering the circumstances, but I didn’t know that until Algore told me so!
If you want real information, look up Joe Bastardi. He’s one of a few who gets this stuff (predictions) right.
An unbelievably tragic series of events in terms of property, lives and the environment, and the readers of WUWT are debating whether the Caribbean islands are flat or mountainous and whether Gore was justified in his claims or not. Speaks volumes about the folk on here. How about donating to hurricane relief or getting off your fat arses and helping with the clean up instead of mastubrating on your laptops?
Well WTF are you and your fat arse doing here, Bruce? Al Gore an his ilk try to use every tragic weather event to push their agenda, and that’s ok with you? Hell, they seem to WANT bad things to happen so that they have the opportunity to preach. But the problem lies with people who post here in defiance?
For the record, I did help with clean up after Irma in FL. So stop “mastubrating” and GFY.