The Week That Was: 2017-09-18 (September 18, 2017)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week. “It is very obvious that we are not influenced by ‘facts’ but by our interpretation of the facts.”— Alfred Adler, Austrian medical doctor, psychotherapist, and founder of the school of individual psychology. [H/t William Readdy]
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Preparing for the Next One – Resilience: During this active hurricane season, we are witnessing the importance of resilience – the ability to be flexible in adapting to natural disasters. SEPP Chairman S. Fred Singer has an article emphasizing the importance of preparing for the next Ice Age and suggests approaches.
Humanity evolved in the tropics during an era of intense climate change; when long, ice ages gripped much of the, now, temperate regions of the earth. Civilization came forth after the last major ice age, which ended about 12,000 years ago, the Pleistocene Epoch. Singer argues for experiments to develop techniques to moderate the next ice age, be it a major or a minor.
Singer argues for two classes of cooling periods: 1) major ones which are driven by orbital mechanics, the Milankovitch cycles; and 2) minor ones which are far shorter and driven by solar cycles, changing activity of the sun. Numerous minor cooling periods occurred during the current warm period, the Holocene. As seen during the Little Ice Age, with famine, disease, and death, even minor cooling periods can be disastrous for humanity and civilization. Some astrophysicists assert we are entering a period of a quiet sun, indicating a cooling period, akin to the Little Ice Age.
Singer’s analysis is based on his assertion that ability of carbon dioxide (CO2) to absorb infrared radiation from the earth is reaching saturation. Adding more CO2 to the atmosphere will do little to protect the earth from cooling. Earlier laboratory experiments by the US National Bureau of Standards, now the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), and many other groups bears this out. The absorption features of CO2, and other greenhouse gases, are highly logarithmic, diminishing rapidly with additional units.
Subsequently, the 1979 Charney Report published by the National Academy of Sciences claimed that the minor influence of CO2 in the atmosphere may be amplified by increased water, resulting in an increase in atmospheric temperatures through the release of latent heat by the condensation of water vapor. The Charney Report contained no data, laboratory or observational, supporting this assertion. As discussed below, subsequent data advanced by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers may have significant issues, including the emphasis on surface data that is influenced by many human activities, unrelated to CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions.
To counter minor cooling periods, Singer suggests experimenting with releasing water vapor in the tropopause, the boundary between the troposphere and stratosphere, at an altitude of about 12 kilometers (40,000 feet). To counter major cooling periods, Singer suggests that once advancing ice is confirmed, releasing black soot onto polar summer ice may help prevent wide-spread glaciation.
No doubt, Singer’s proposals will be highly controversial, and many individuals will express outrage. However, that is the cost of expressing imaginative ideas in a highly politicized world. See Article # 1 and links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Adjusting Temperatures — Lower Troposphere Satellite Temperatures: In his three-part series addressing the question of whether reported temperatures have been adjusted to match models, geologist and statistician Roger Andrews analyzes the publicly available data, not claims in the scientific literature. Similar to Steve McIntyre, who, with Ross McKitrick, exposed the fallacious “hockey-stick” by Mr. Mann, Andrews painstakingly analyzes the data and draws his conclusions based on that analysis.
In Part 1 of this series he covered the surface-air temperature data and concluded:
“… that the good match between surface air temperatures and model simulations (in the Northern Hemisphere but less so in the Southern) were a result of homogeneity adjustments that added non-existent warming to the raw records. Whether these adjustments were applied in a deliberate attempt to match observations to AGW theory is, however, questionable. They are more likely a result of the initial and never-questioned assumption that the raw records were cooling-biased by such things as station moves from downtown to airport locations, time-of-observation changes etc. and that they therefore required warming adjustments to make them “correct” (the USHCN adjustments to the US raw records are good example). But there is no doubt in my mind that the existing published surface air temperature series, such as CRUTEM3, GISS, NOAA/NCDC and BEST overstate long term global surface air warming by several tenths of a degree C.” [Boldface added]
In Part 2 Andrews covered sea surface temperatures and concluded:
“…that the 0.4C “World War II cooling adjustment” applied to the raw ICOADs [International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set] sea surface temperature records and the insulated/uninsulated bucket bias corrections that preceded it were invalid, and that as a result the published SST series (HadSST3, ERSST etc.) are not meaningful before about 1950. In this case it’s difficult to escape the conclusion that these adjustments were applied in a deliberate attempt to match the measurements to the models. But if so the attempt was not blessed with success. The match between the published series and model simulations is still poor.” [Boldface added]
Most of the warming shown in sea surface temperature data occurred before 1950.
In part 3 Andrews covers atmospheric data from satellites. In the introduction Andrews states:
Except for small gaps over the poles the satellite temperature series are the only truly global temperature series we have; their defect is that they do not begin until 1979. Published series are constructed using raw records from different satellites that require large adjustments to bring them into line, but the good comparison between the most widely-referenced series – the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) lower troposphere (TLT) series – and radiosonde series suggests that these adjustments are valid. The other widely-referenced series – the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) TLT series was adjusted in 2015 to show over 0.2C more warming since 1979 than UAH. Data reviews do not tell us which series is the more correct, but the circumstances surrounding the RSS adjustments are suspicious. In any event, both series show significantly less warming in the lower troposphere than predicted by climate model simulations – yet another instance of the measurements not matching the models.
Further, Andrews concludes
“… that with one exception the raw satellite data are correctly adjusted and that the published TLT series are reliable. The exception is of course the RSS v 4.0 series, which adds over 0.2C of warming to preceding RSS series. There is no proof that this added warming was a result of a deliberate attempt to match the measurements to the models (and if it was it also didn’t succeed – see Figure 7). The timing of the adjustments is nevertheless suspicious, and it’s worth noting that Ben Santer, a champion of the AGW cause, was involved in the adjustment process. But if the attempt was indeed deliberate it wouldn’t have been the first. In April 2006, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program published a study that led off with the following statement:
“’Previously reported discrepancies between the amount of warming near the surface and higher in the atmosphere have been used to challenge the reliability of climate models and the reality of human-induced global warming. Specifically, surface data showed substantial global-average warming, while early versions of satellite and radiosonde data showed little or no warming above the surface. This significant discrepancy no longer exists because errors in the satellite and radiosonde data have been identified and corrected. New data sets have also been developed that do not show such discrepancies.’”
“I have no data on what the corrections were, but there can be no doubt that they wouldn’t have been applied if the satellite data hadn’t “challenge(d) the reliability of climate models and the reality of human-induced global warming”.
“The bottom lines that emerge from all this are:
“1. The only published temperature time series that are not distorted by adjustments and which can therefore be considered reasonably reliable are the UAH TLT series and the SST series after about 1950. (The various radiosonde series, which go back to 1958, also appear to be generally reliable, and more use could be made of them.)
“2. Climate models show too much air temperature warming at the surface and in the troposphere. They show probably about the right amount of sea surface warming after 1950 but probably too little before. Overall the models show that greenhouse gases have had considerably less impact on temperatures than AGW theory says they should have had.” [Boldface added.]
The findings of Andrews correspond with the views expressed in TWTW: 1) UAH atmospheric data are the only reliable true global data; 2) there are questionable adjustments to the surface data; and, 3) current RSS adjustments to atmospheric data are highly questionable. For these reasons, when discussing global measurements of temperature, TWTW relies only on UAH TLT data. As described in the Charney Report, it is in the atmosphere, the lower troposphere, that the greenhouse effect of CO2 occurs and any amplification thereof.
Let us hope that unlike the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (CRU), NASA-GISS and NOAA-NCDC, now called National Centers for Environmental Information (NOAA-NCEI) preserved the unadjusted surface data. If not, they have failed the American public in preserving important history. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
More Ocean Oscillations? As stated in last week’s TWTW, the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a poor term because there is no oscillation in the sense of a rhythmic movement back and forth. The El Niño component warms, and La Niña component cools. But they are not predictable. This week, the Global Warming Policy Foundation published a study by atmospheric physicist Anastasios Tsonis examined ENSO and other complicated changes in the oceans such as the North Atlantic Oscillation [the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO)] and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These may not be true oscillations, but seem to occur fairly regularly. In the past, Joe D’Aleo of WeatherBELL Analytics has described to these changes.
To better understand these changes, many taking decades, would be a great benefit in understanding our changing weather and climate. The new study can be a complement to the prior statistical work by Wallace, D’Aleo, and Christy. Unfortunately, much needed work into understanding the natural causes of climate change has been side-tracked into blaming CO2. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Defending the Orthodoxy.
What Happened to Irma? Hurricane Irma was a serious threat to Florida, and, initially, forecast to travel up the east coast of the state. Later, it crossed the Florida Keys as a category 4 hurricane and was forecast to go up the west coast of the state as a major hurricane (category 3 or above). The winds dissipated, but the storm caused major damage from heavy rain and wind less that category 3. For example, the damage to orange groves may drive up the prices of fruits for months ahead.
Although the after-action reports are not complete, apparently the strength of the eye of the storm dissipated due to wind shear – an occurrence where the direction or intensity of the winds vary with altitude at or near the eye.
According to reports, with a few exceptions, government officials and the public responded well to the danger. The electric auto maker Tesla released an electronic upgrade to owners, without cost, which would allow owners to drive farther before charging. This prompted some criticisms, but charging for upgrades at little cost to the manufacturer has been a long tradition in the electronics industry.
False alarms can fool people into thinking there is little danger when hurricane alarms are given in the future. After Katrina, past false alarms were an excuse given for the Mayor not ordering evacuation of New Orleans. We need a better severe storm forecasting ability. Unfortunately, diverting billions of dollars for forecasting multiple future climates are of little practical value.
Hurricane Jose has been circulating in the Atlantic Ocean for over a week, with little interest. Now, it appears that Jose may threaten the northeast by late this week. If it happens, we can expect the climate chorus to go into full throat. Of course, they will be unable to explain what drove the 1938 Long Island Express Hurricane, which took a theater out to sea, with patrons; or the 1635 Great Colonial Hurricane that hit the Massachusetts Bay Colony. See links under Seeking a Common Ground, Changing Weather, and Changing Weather — Forecasts
Energy Follies: Denmark’s DONG Energy won an auction for needing the lowest subsidies from the UK government for providing electricity from wind from a project off the coast of Yorkshire. DONG agreed to provide electricity at a government guaranteed price, below those of competitors. Headlines immediately seized on the low guaranteed price, below that of the guaranteed price for the Hinkley nuclear power plant, which may have been a very bad deal for the UK consumers. None of the reviewed reports covers how electricity will be provided when wind power fails, which it will. Such inconveniences are not covered, although civilization fails to operate with electric power fails.
Writing in The Australian, economist Judith Sloan questions the huge increases in electricity prices in Australia as government shifted to green energy, despite an abundance of fossil fuels.
“The most pressing need of the government is to secure the future of dispatchable electricity generation and to do so at reasonable prices. Everything else is a side-show.”
See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up and Questioning Green Elsewhere.
Number of the Week:??? One wonders how much rain has fallen on the Atlantic from Hurricane Jose as compared to how much rain fell on Houston from Harvey. Forecasting such storms is necessary to be able to forecast intensity of hurricanes that make landfall, but there seems to be little interest. [H/t Joe Bastardi]
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Massive sunspots and huge solar flares mean unexpected space weather for Earth
By Alexa Halford, Brett Carter, and Julie Currie, The Conversation, Sep 7, 2017
Solar storms linked to mass strandings of whales
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 6, 2017
Link to paper: Solar storms may trigger sperm whale strandings: explanation approaches for multiple strandings in the North Sea in 2016
By Vanselow, Jacobsen, Hall, and Garthe, International Journal of Astrobiology, Sep 14, 2017
Climate McCarthyism Is on the Rise
By Julie Kelly, National Review, Sep 13, 2017
Canada now investigates ‘climate denial’
By Lorrie Goldstein, Toronto Sun, Sep 13, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
Download with no charge
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Periodic global cooling might be thwarted by geoengineering
By S. Fred Singer, Washington Times, Sep 12, 2017
Adjusting Measurements to Match the Models – Part 3: Lower Troposphere Satellite Temperatures
By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, Sep 14, 2017
Ocean Cycles, Not Humans, May Be Behind Most Observed Climate Change
By Staff Writers, GWPF, Sep 15, 2017
Link to paper: The Little Boy: El Niño and natural climate change
By Anastasios Tsonis, GWPF, 2017
Bridenstine, Climate Scientists Are Not Noble, Stop Paying Them
By Duane Thresher, Real Climatologists, Sep 8, 2017
“’Dr. Thresher, You have one advantage over me. You are a climate expert and I am not.’ — Genius and global warming skeptic Freeman Dyson.”
“I instigated a NASA OIG investigation of Gavin Schmidt, current head of NASA GISS anointed by previous head James Hansen, for violation of the Federal Records Act and the Hatch Act.”
Making Technological Miracles
By Mark Mills, The New Atlantis, Spring 2017
[SEPP Comment: At what point does a push to accomplish a technological goal become a vain waste?]
Defending the Orthodoxy
Vulnerable Pacific states demand urgent climate action
By Staff Writers, Apia, Samoa (AFP), Sept 8, 2017
Link to press release: World Bank lays out options for accelerated Pacific Island growth
By Staff Writers, World Bank, Sep 7, 2017
Link to report: Pacific Possible: Long-term Economic Opportunities and Challenges for Pacific Island Countries
By Staff Writers, World Bank, 2017
Neil de Grasse Tyson Destroys Climate Change Deniers’ Favorite Argument In 1 Tweet
By Ed Mazza, Huff Post, Sep 11, 2017
“Anyone who thinks scientists like agreeing with one another has never attended a scientific conference.”
[SEPP Comment: The remainder is meaningless and cites the 2013 disingenuous survey by Cook et al.]
Open Call for Author Nominations: IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)
By Staff Writers, US Global Change Research Program, No Date [H/t Cooler Heads]
Taking the Pulse of the Planet
How fast is Earth warming? Ocean heat content and sea level rise measurements may provide a more reliable answer than atmospheric measurements.
By Lijing Cheng, Kevin E. Trenberth, et al. EOS, Sep 13, 2017
[SEPP Comment: If warming is occurring in the ocean, without atmospheric warming, then the cause is something other than the greenhouse effect.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Bias and intolerance
By Martin Livermore, Scientific Alliance, Sep 8, 2017
How the CIC Is Working to Prevent EPA from Using Good Science
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Sep 15, 2017
Rush to judgement
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Sep 14, 2017
We are more than a match for hurricanes
By Matt Ridley, The Times, Via GWPF, Sep 11, 2017
“The temptation to blame Irma on fossil fuels or Donald Trump, milking natural disasters for political gain, proved irresistible to some. This makes no more sense than blaming the Syrian civil war on climate change, rather than man’s inhumanity to man, which Barack Obama, the Prince of Wales, Bernie Sanders, Friends of the Earth and the World Bank were all tempted into doing.”
12 New Papers: North Atlantic, Pacific, And Southern Oceans Are Cooling As Glaciers Thicken, Gain Mass
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 11, 2017
Plastics in Our Drinking Water?
By Dennis Avery, Townhall, Sep 9, 2017
Flashback 2007: Scientists Reveal They ‘No Longer Understand How Ozone Holes Come Into Being’
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 14, 2017
[SEPP Comment: That which worked in the laboratory did not work in the field. Perhaps, what was “understood” was not correctly understood.]
Klaus: alarmists have won the climate debate [In Europe]
By Luboš Motl, The Reference Frame, Sep 10, 2017
State Department Climate Pullback (remembering Tillerson’s 2013 views)
By Robert Bradley, Master Resource, Sep 14, 2017
“Todd Stern, who served in the role for nearly eight years during the Obama administration, was the country’s chief negotiator for the landmark 2015 Paris climate agreement, which the website says ‘is the most ambitious climate accord ever negotiated.’”
[SEPP Comment: Often, what is called the most ambitious may be the most egotistical.]
The Hurricane Harvey Hustle
Guest essay by Paul Driessen, WUWT, Sep 9, 2017
Change in US Administrations
Trump Administration Proposes Repealing Obama Era Fracking Law
By Kenneth Artz. Heartland, Sep 13, 2017
Social Benefits of Carbon
Study: plants are globally getting more efficient thanks to rising carbon dioxide
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 12, 2017
Link to paper: Atmospheric evidence for a global secular increase in carbon isotopic discrimination of land photosynthesis
By Ralph Keeline, et al. PNAS, Sep 11, 2017
A Global Warming Red Team Warning: Do Not Strive For Consensus With The Blue Team
By Dr. Roy Spencer, ICECAP, Sep 14, 2017
The Role Of Climate Change In Extreme Weather Events
By Robert Rapier, Forbes, Sep 10, 2017
No Mr Monbiot, capitalism isn’t destroying the planet
By Tim Worstall, CapX, Sep 14, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
Wealthy Countries Resilient in the Face of Extreme Weather
By H. Sterling Burnett, The Heartland Institute, Sep 15, 2017 [H/t Cooler Heads]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Cardiovascular Health Impacts of Heatwaves and Cold Spells in Catalonia
Ponjoan, A., Blanch, J., Alves-Cabratosa, L., Martí-Lluch, Comas-Cufí, M., Parramon, D., Garcia-Gil, M., Ramos, R. and Petersen, I. 2017. Effects of extreme temperatures on cardiovascular emergency hospitalizations in a Mediterranean region: a self-controlled case series study. Environmental Health 16: 32, doi:10.1186/s12940-017-0238-0. Sep 15, 2017
“Clearly, given the results of this study, cold weather is the danger to be feared in terms of increasing rates of hospitalization for cardiovascular disease.”
Smaller Trends and No Acceleration of Mediterranean Sea Levels
Zerbini, S., Raicich, F., Prati, C.M., Bruni, S., Conte, S.D., Errico, M. and Santi, E. 2017. Sea-level change in the Northern Mediterranean Sea from long-period tide gauge time series. Earth-Science Reviews 167: 72-87. Sep 15, 2017
[SEPP Comment: NASA may wish to reexamine its calibration points for the GRACE satellites.]
Modern Trends in Productivity and Intrinsic Water Use Efficiency Reported From Two European Forests
Giammarchi, F., Cherubini, P., Pretzsch, H. and Tonon, G. 2017. The increase of atmospheric CO2 affects growth potential and intrinsic water-use efficiency of Norway spruce forests: insights from a multi-stable isotope analysis in tree rings of two Alpine chronosequences. Trees 31: 503-515. Sep 11, 2017
Measurement Issues — Surface
Bureau Management Rewrites the Rules – Again
By Jenniferer Morahasy, Her Blog, Sep 11, 2017
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Australian Bureau of Met uses 1 second noise, not like WMO, UK and US standards
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology may not be meeting WMO, UK, US standards
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 13, 2017
Link to paper: What are daily maximum and minimum temperatures in observed climatology?
By Lin and Hubbard, International Journal of Climatology, June 18, 2017
Beyond “Flood Zones:” Time to Personally Floodproof Homes and Businesses
By Barry Klein, Master Resource, Sep 13, 2017
[SEPP Comment: From a local in the floodproofing business.]
Beware Greens Exploiting Hurricanes
Extreme weather is less of a threat than it ever has been.
By Ben Pile, Spiked, Sep 11, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
“But theory easily becomes dogma, and climate pundits have rushed ahead of their science. ‘Harvey is what climate change looks like’, screeched meteorologist Eric Holthaus. ‘It’s a fact: climate change made Hurricane Harvey more deadly’, claimed Michael Mann, a professor of atmospheric science at Pennsylvania State University.’”
[SEPP Comment: Pile asks the right question; More deadly than what?]
La Niña May Develop By Fall or Winter, NOAA Says; Here’s What That Could Mean
By Jonathan Erdman, Weather.com, Sep 14, 2017
As La Nina Looms, Warmists Skid Into Panic Mode…Global Warming Pause Set To Surpass Two Decades!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 15, 2017
Atlantic Hurricane Trends and Mortality Updated
By Euan Mearns, Energy Matters, Sep 12, 2017
“My prejudice is that Earth’s climate should be changing all the time and I do find the constancy of Atlantic Hurricane activity surprising. Perhaps Man’s intervention has stopped the climate from changing.”
Parts of Florida Keys to reopen to residents after Irma
By Max Greenwood, The Hill, Sep 16, 2017
“Residents of the Lower Keys and Key West will be allowed to return home on Sunday at daybreak, the officials said in a statement.”
Guardian Shocked that Florida Residents STILL Don’t Buy their Climate Hype
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 11, 2017
Mega-Snow: Mother Nature Buries Another Failed Climate Prediction
Staff Writers, Via GWPF, Sep 11, 2011
[SEPP Comment: Two headlines in UK Mail: “Australia’s ski resorts experience best conditions Ever” Sep 11, 2017; and “Sno joke, climate change is killing Australia’s ski fields:” July 20, 2015.]
No, Hurricanes Aren’t More Frequent or Severe
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Sep 13, 2017
Stop the loose talk about hurricanes and global warming
By Myron Ebell and Roger O’Neill, The Hill, Sep 15, 2017
The Hurricane Irma Forecast: Triumph or Disappointment?
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Sep 13, 2017
A $150 Billion Misfire: How Disaster Models Got Irma Wrong
By Brian Sullivan, Bloomberg, Sep 12, 2017
Did Climate Change Cause Hurricane Irma To Fizzle?
Editorial, IBD, Sep 11, 2017
Billionaire funds program to expose deep-sea secrets
By Scott Waldman, E&E, Sep 12, 2017
Taking a deep breath in the North Atlantic
By Staff Writers, Kiel, Germany (SPX) Sep 07, 2017
Link to paper: Intense oceanic uptake of oxygen during 2014–2015 winter convection in the Labrador Sea
By Jannes Koelling, Geophysical Research Letters, Aug 5, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Does not state the number of years the previous, lesser uptake covers.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Himalayan glaciers melting for 400 years, finds BSIP study
By Staff Writers, Times of India, Sep 13, 2017
BSIP is Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeosciences
[SEPP Comment: What percentage? See link immediately below.]
87% of Himalayan glaciers stable since 2001: Javadekar
By Staff Writers, The Times of India, Dec 15, 2015
“Net Increase In Greenland Ice Mass…First Time This Century” Amid Northern Hemisphere Cool-Down
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 10, 2017
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Carbon dioxide emission-intensity in climate projections: Comparing the observational record to socio-economic scenarios
By Felix Prelis and Max Roser, Energy, June 22, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
From the abstract: The wide spread of projected temperature changes in climate projections does not predominately originate from uncertainty across climate models; instead it is the broad range of different global socio-economic scenarios and the implied energy production that results in high uncertainty about future climate change.
…we find that the relative discrepancy was driven by unanticipated GDP growth in Asia and Eastern Europe, in particular in Russia and China. The growth of emission intensity over the 2000s highlights the relevance of unforeseen local shifts in projections on a global scale.
[SEPP Comment: Another smoke-screen protecting the “settled science” for failing to correctly predict temperatures in the near-term.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
The great nutrient collapse
The atmosphere is literally changing the food we eat, for the worse. And almost nobody is paying attention.
By Helena Bottemiller Evich, Politico, Sep 13, 2017
The Plastic Fantasy That’s Propping Up the Oil Market
By Julian Lee, Bloomberg, Sep 10, 2017
Washington Post Profile on CEI Climate Work Misses Half the Story
By Kent Lassman and Marlo Lewis, Jr., CEI, Sep 14, 2017 [H/t Cooler Heads]
UK wind electricity cheaper than nuclear: data
By Roland Jackson, AFP, Sep 11, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Comparison highly skewed. How much does wind energy cost when it does not generate electricity?]
Wind could make Britain an energy superpower to rival Arabia!
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph, UK, Exposed by Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 15, 2017
“Industry insiders are not surprised by the strike price of £57.50 per megawatt hour unveiled this week for two giant wind projects, half the levels struck in contracts two years ago. They already knew that the technology is advancing by leaps and bounds. But it seems to have stunned everybody else.”
Homewood states: “The strike prices agreed for the three new projects this week range from £57.50 to £74.75/MWh. But these are at 2012 prices, so we are actually looking at prices up to £81/MWh, which is nearly double the market price.”
Wind turbines could power Scottish smelter and steel plants
GFG Alliance propose a wind farm in the Scottish Highlands to power aluminium smelter plant in Fort William and a steel plant in Motherwell
By Shafi Musaddique, Independent, UK, Sep 6, 2017
Questioning European Green
German Energy Expert Shreds Wind Power: “Everyone’s Loses With Wind Energy”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 9, 2017
Fort Collins zero-energy district powers down (Colorado)
By Kevin Duggan, Coloradoan, Sep 10, 2017
“A nationally known Fort Collins initiative that promoted clean energy, innovation and community collaboration has run out of steam.
“The project received a $6.3 million grant from the U.S. Department of Energy and an addition $5 million in funding from local contributors.
“It was esoteric, complicated stuff, the kind of thing that might not resonate with the general public, who just want lights, fans and computers to turn on with the flip of a switch.”
Our electricity crisis is “the cost of virtue signalling”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 16, 2017
Government walks away from Alan Finkel’s CET [Clean Energy Target]
By Staff Writers, Financial Review [AU] Sep 13, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
By Judith Sloan, The Australian, Via GWPF, Sep 14, 2017
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
The great electric car debate
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Sep 1, 2017
“Car buyers have never had a public subsidy, although owners have been nudged in what the government of the day sees as the right direction by tweaking road tax levels.”
Tesla battery, subsidy, and sustainability fantasies
By Paul Driessen, C-Fact, July 24, 2017
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA delays toxic waste rule for power plants
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Sep 13, 2017
[SEPP Comment: At what concentration is the waste toxic?]
Energy Issues – Non-US
World Energy Use Projected to Increase 29% by 2040
By Staff Writers, GWPF, Sep 15, 2017
Link to report: EIA projects 28% increase in world energy use by 2040
By Staff Writers, EIA, Sep 14, 2017
Projections to 2050: International Energy Outlook 2017
By Staff Writers, EIA, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Renewables increase rapidly, petroleum and natural gas increase, nuclear increases slowly and coal declines slowly.]
Nick Butler: The Energy Lessons of Hurricane Harvey
By Nick Butler, Financial Times, Via GWPF, Sep 11, 2017
“Primary sources — the raw materials — need to be processed and converted into forms of energy that can be used by consumers. Crude oil must be refined into gasoline or other products, gas or coal converted to electricity. And the lines and grids must be in place to take energy from the point of production to the point of consumption.”
Latest CfD Auction–Offshore Wind Only Double Market Price
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 11, 2017
Energy Issues – Australia
Momentum shifts on Renewables Targets in Australia (mini revolt brewing)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 15, 2017
UPDATE: Malcolm Roberts, One Nation replies the two-stroke mower *change* is about real pollution, not CO2
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 15, 2017
“Please note that Soichiro Honda himself banned his company from making 2-stroke outboard motors in the 1970’s after he visited Lake Tahoe and was shocked to see oil film on its waters. That pollution was produced by 2-stroke outboard motors.”
[SEPP Comment: Does the problem that applied to two-stroke outboard motors apply to other two-stroke engines as well?]
Energy Issues — US
Everyone is Missing Something in the Grid Study
By Josh Smith, Real Clear Energy, Sep 14, 2017
Link to report: Staff Report to the Secretary on Electricity Markets and Reliability
By Staff Writers, DOE, August, 2017
Link to study on subsidies: Two Thirds of a Century and $1 Trillion+ U.S. Energy Incentives Analysis of Federal Expenditures for Energy Development, 1950-2016
By Staff Writers, Management Information Services, May 2017
“According to a report by Management Information Services, Inc., a DC consulting firm, the oil and gas industry has received 54 percent of all energy incentives since 1950. Federal energy incentives and favoritism only recently flipped to favor renewables––and flipped big. From 2011 to 2016, renewable energy got more than three times what oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear received combined.”
[SEPP Comment: Contrary to a comment by the author, the energized system is built to connect users with electricity generators. The amount of energy produced by renewables is minor and will be unreliable regardless of subsidies.]
Renewable energy, conventional wisdom, and the bottom line
By John Gardner, Idaho Business Review, Sep 11, 2017
Washington’s Control of Energy
Trump moving toward energy exploration in Arctic wildlife refuge: report
By Max Greenwood, The Hill, Sep 15, 2017
97-Year-Old Law May Be The Cause Of Higher Gas Prices
By William Murray, Oil Price.com, Sep 11, 2017
Link to report – slides: Jones Act: Petroleum Trade Flows and Transportation Costs
By Staff Writers, Turner Mason & Company, American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, Jan 2016
Wait A Minute Mr. FERC-Man – How A Recent Court Ruling Could Impede New Gas Pipelines
By Rick Smead, RBN Energy, Sep 10, 2017
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
The Boring Truth About Oil Prices
By Peter Tertzakian, Oil Price.com, Sep 13, 2017
[SEPP Comment: The thrill ride is over, so are the high-stakes betting games.]
Like Strait of Hormuz, Gulf Coast energy hub is now “too important to fail,” IEA says
By Collin Eaton, Houston Chronicle, Sep 13, 2017
Oil Barrels Aren’t Real Anymore
Once a cask that held crude, the oil barrel is now mostly an economic concept. An Object Lesson.
By Brian Jacobson, The Atlantic, Sep 8, 2017
[SEPP Comment: What was once a convenient means of transporting liquid fuels has become little more than a unit of measurement.]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Dome installed at sixth Hongyanhe unit
By Staff Writers, WNN, Sep 8, 2017
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
China Fossil Fuel Deadline Shifts Focus to Electric Car Race
Regulators working on timetable for the ban, official says
China joins U.K., France to phase out combustion-engine cars
By Staff Writers, Bloomberg, Sep 10, 2017
[SEPP Comment: More coal and nuclear-powered cars?]
German Analysis: Florida Evacuation With E-Vehicles Would Mean “Mass Death On The Highways”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 12, 2017
“Yesterday Michael Limburg of the Germany-based European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) here posted a brainstorming thought exercise, posing the question of what would the evacuation of Florida look like if most of the cars were electric”
Imagine Escaping a Hurricane in a Tesla
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 12, 2017
St Fergus carbon capture scheme could make Scotland ‘key player’ in storage
Peterhead Power Station was the original proposed site for such a scheme.
A pioneering new carbon capture and storage scheme could be about to rise from the ashes of the abandoned £1billion Peterhead project.
By Jennifer McKiernan, Aberdeen Journals, Energy Voice, June 9, 2017 [H/t Energy Matters]
California should go all in on clean energy
By Kathryn Phillips, Sacramento Bee, Sep 12, 2017
California clean energy proposals face demise as opposition fails to yield
By Chris Megerian, LA Times, Sep 14, 2017
Health, Energy, and Climate
An Air Pollution Paradox?
By Meredith Fowlie, Energy Collective, Sep 12, 2017
Link to Lancet Report: Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015
By Aaron J. Cohen, et al. Lancet, May 13, 2017
From the Abstract: Findings Ambient PM2·5 was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM2·5 caused 4·2 million … deaths and 103·1 million … disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6% of total global deaths and 4·2% of global DALYs, 59% of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 increased from 3·5 million … in 1990 to 4·2 million … in 2015. Exposure to ozone caused an additional 254 000 … deaths and a loss of 4·1 million … DALYs from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 2015.” [For readability, the estimates of probabilities and ranges were eliminated.]
[SEPP Comment: Statistical nonsense based on highly speculative adverse health effects of PM 2.5. According to the world map in the article, those living in the desert belt of the Sahara, Arabia, and Asia should have high mortality rates from lung disorders, including “asthma, acute bronchitis, lung cancer, stroke, and heart disease.” If the article is correct, which it is not, those living in the desert belt will greatly benefit from increased CO2, which is greening the deserts.]
Other News that May Be of Interest
$20 Trillion in National Debt Is a Big Deal
By Maya MacGuineas, Real Clear Policy, Sep 15, 2017
Principles Versus Rules in Free Trade
Britain has a chance to revitalise global free trade to the benefit of all
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Sep 11, 2017
“Why does the European Union raise a tariff on coffee? It has no coffee industry to protect so the sole effect is to make coffee more expensive for all Europeans.”
“As Adam Smith said, you should never ‘attempt to make at home what it will cost [you] more to make than to buy . . . What is prudence in the conduct of every private family can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom.’”
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
To guard against climate change, Los Angeles is painting its streets white
They plan to lower the temperature by 3 degrees over the next 20 years.
By Jeremy Deaton, Nexus Media, Sep 6, 2017 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
[SEPP Comment: No mention of costs. Also, the principal part of the Urban Heat Island effect is keeping the urban areas warmer at night.]
Winton Capital Sets Up Climate Change Prediction Market
By Lindsay Fortado, Financial Times, Via GWPF, Sep 12, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Everyone can gamble on the projections / predictions; but unlike politicians, there is a cost if you are wrong!]
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions, Sep 14, 2017
“According to a new report published by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, the livestock sector generates more greenhouse gas emissions as measured in CO2 equivalent – 18 percent – than transport.
“It is also a major source of land and water degradation.
“Says Henning Steinfeld, Chief of FAO’s Livestock Information and Policy Branch and senior author of the report: ‘Livestock are one of the most significant contributors to today’s most serious environmental problems. Urgent action is required to remedy the situation.’”
1. Preventing the other climate catastrophe
Periodic global cooling might be thwarted by geoengineering
By S. Fred Singer, Washington Times, Sep 12, 2017
SUMMARY: The Chairman of SEPP writes:
“Climate cooling, as opposed to warming, presents serious problems for humanity. As cooling causes agriculture to fail, most of the world’s population will starve and we will be reduced from its present level to about a million, hunting animals and collecting nuts and seeds for sustenance. This has happened before during the ice ages, when nomadic bands of prehistoric humans had to shelter in caves for protection from the cold, and had to rely on uncertain supplies of food.
“Geoengineering to combat global warming is controversial. It is expensive and presents risks to the environment. However, when geoengineering is applied against climate cooling, both expense and risk become minor items.”
Singer asserts there are two types of global cooling events: 1) orbital; and 2) solar. The orbital cooling is described by Milankovitch, and is responsible for the ice ages over the past 2 to 3 million years. These events may last 100,000 years and cause severe hardship on humanity. Dumping black soot onto polar summer ice may help prevent, or at least lessen such wide-spread glaciation.
The solar cooling is caused by changes in the activity of the sun, is far shorter, and less severe; yet, is dangerous to civilization. The Little Ice Age is an example. Releasing additional CO2 will not prevent it, because the heat absorption ability of atmospheric CO2 is virtually saturated and additional amounts will not have much an impact. Releasing water vapor in the tropopause, the boundary between the troposphere and stratosphere, at an altitude of about 12 kilometers may do the trick.
“While there is much current discussion about geoengineering, the expense and the risk have been forbidding. I strongly believe that the time is right for conducting experiments to test the concepts described above to offset a sure-to-occur catastrophic climate cooling.
“In a nutshell, as opposed to global warming, global cooling is a very real problem for a number of reasons. Based on the historic past, we can be sure that cooling will occur again, and maybe very soon. When it does occur, it will have serious effects on agriculture and lead to mass starvation. Unlike for warming, geoengineering against cooling seems physically possible, relatively inexpensive and environmentally benign.”
2. The Climate-Change Distraction
It’s confusing, causally incorrect and diverts resources from real solutions to real problems.
By Bjorn Lomborg, WSJ, Sep 7, 2017
SUMMARY: Arguing that climate change is a problem, author of “The Skeptical Environmentalist” writes:
“Climate change has been blamed for a dizzying array of absurd woes, from the dwindling number of customers at Bulgarian brothels to the death of the Loch Ness monster. Most of us can see through these silly headlines, but it’s far harder to parse the more serious claims when they’re repeated in good faith by well-meaning campaigners.
“Consider the recent assertion by Unicef’s Bangladesh head of mission that climate change leads to an increase in child marriages. Between 2011 and 2020 globally, more than 140 million girls under the age of 18 will become brides, leading to curtailed education and reduced lifetime earnings, more domestic violence, more deaths from complications due to pregnancy and increased mortality for the young brides’ children. By all accounts, child marriage must be taken seriously.
“In Bangladesh, nearly 75% of women between the ages of 20 and 49 reported that they were married before they turned 18, giving the country the second-highest rate of child marriage in the world. As the Unicef head tells it, climate change has been a major cause, as warmer weather has worsened the flooding, pushing people to the cities, leading to more child marriages.
“This entire string of logic is wrong. The frequency of extreme floods in Bangladesh has increased, it’s true, but studies show their magnitude and duration have in fact decreased. And Bangladesh is far better at adapting today than it was a generation ago. In 1974, a flood killed 29,000 people and cost 7.5% of the country’s gross domestic product. A slightly larger flood in 2004 killed 761 people and cost 3.3% of GDP.
“Nor is Unicef right to claim a connection between flooding and urbanization. A study published in the Journal of Biosocial Science found that living in cities doesn’t increase the likelihood of child marriages in Bangladesh. Rather, it was “significantly higher among rural women.” According to another study, published in the Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment, the average age of marriage in cities is 16.15 years, compared to 15.08 years in rural areas.
“This isn’t surprising. Across the world, there’s a convergence between low urbanization rates and higher child-marriage rates. In Africa, the three worst countries for child marriage—Chad, Mali and Niger—also have the lowest levels of urbanization.
“Given the weak links between warming, flooding, urbanization and the contrary link between urbanization and child marriage, climate policies would be the least effective in addressing the problem. Copenhagen Consensus research shows that we need to focus instead on nutrition and education, political opportunities for girls and women, and improving women’s rights to inherit and start a business.”
Lomborg gives an example of a successful program in Bangladesh, then discusses malaria which he states is a consequence of poverty. If fully enacted, the Kyoto Protocol would have done little to relieve suffering from malaria. He concludes by stating:
“None of this means that we should ignore climate change. But to respond properly we need to stick to the facts and maintain a sense of perspective, avoiding tenuous connections and ineffective solutions that ultimately divert resources away from fixing the real problems.”