From the HEAD LINES MATTER department. Sometimes you just have to shake your head and wonder, did you know what you just said?
Case in point, Eric Blake, from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) tweeted September 7th:
And that Tweet has the takeaway “Never seen anything like this in the modern record” and spawned this story from MSN, quoting Blake: Note the headline using his takeaway phrase slightly modified.
The lead-in to that story reads:
For the first time in modern history, three hurricanes in the Atlantic are lined up in the most dangerous of ways, according to Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center.
Here’s where that takeway from Blake runs off the rails. Recall back in 2010 we had a trio of hurricanes that looks very much like what Blake claimed was a first by saying “Never seen anything like this in the modern record”.
According to Blake’s Twitter exchange, after “Yannick” brought up that image from 2010, Blake says he’s only referencing a trio of hurricanes that “threaten land”:
Distorted to make it look similar? He’s spinning, and Ellen Bemben is right. Blake said in his initial tweet with the three images:
Never seen anything like this in the modern record #Irma#Jose#Katia
MSN picked up on it, and now we have a “fake news” headline about three hurricanes that is inaccurate in the context it presents.
The issue is that Hurricane Jose in the 2017 image is affecting the Leeward Islands, where Julia in 2010 did not., (save for some rain and winds on the Cape Verde islands) NHC has issued Jose advisories for Land effects on the Leward Islands, but has cancelled other warnings, and there’s no threat to the U.S.
Many people on Twitter and other social media equated “land” to be the USA, they don’t think about tiny islands like the Leeward Islands, most couldn’t even point them out on a map. People just don’t see the fine distinction about the “threatening land” because from their perspective, all the hurricanes are a threat, and they think “USA”, not Leeward islands. It really doesn’t enter into their thought process at all.
While Blake is technically correct about the “threatening land” part of his tweet, the takeway phrase is the one that got “legs” and is running the opposite direction he intended.
And, now that image from Yannick comparing three Atlantic Hurricanes in 2010 and 2017 is getting heavy play on social media, and Blake is being excoriated for the headline thanks to the law of unintended consequences.
Blake would do well to simply say he made a mistake, or didn’t choose his words carefully, and notify MSN so they can correct the headline. Despite his claims on his Twitter profile (bold mine)…
NHC scientist, CSU/ULM alum, vegan runner, Tweets weather hurricanes El Niño/La Niña climate pets politics frogs-My personal opinions only, NOT my employer’s!
…I’d bet that NHC would want to correct this word blunder, as they strive to be factual. MSN connects Blake and NHC in their article, so his caveat is for naught.
UPDATE: I put this story on hold yesterday, because he’s made an honest mistake and I was pretty sure he’d correct it so the headline would get fixed. I had hoped someone at NHC or professional acquaintances would nudge Blake, and he’d work to correct the misconception. Nope. I contacted Blake today on Twitter, and he wasn’t at all receptive:
Now if you could fix ur blunder on "never before seen" 3x hurricanes, you'd be in the same league with NHC's "solidness" People arent buying
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) September 9, 2017
And according to NHC today, Hurricane Jose may not threaten landfall on U.S. Yes I know, islands, but most unaware of that tiny distinction.
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) September 9, 2017
I'm trying to help you here, and you start attacking my intelligence. Maybe you live in bubble, but you are being excoriated on social media
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) September 9, 2017
Ok, have it your way. I tried to help you understand how your tweet has gone out of control and turned u into laughingstock on social media.
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) September 9, 2017
Not disparaging his credibility, just trying to help him understand how a tweet got turned into a headline that's getting him blasted
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) September 9, 2017
Oh, well I tried. BTW, those are not all the exchanges, just a few I had with him. I really did try to help, he wouldn’t have it.
The ego is not master in its own house. -Sigmund Freud
We did agree on one thing though:
On that we agree.
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) September 9, 2017
ADDED: For perspective, in 1998, there were FOUR hurricanes in the Atlantic at once.
See: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/four-hurricanes-once-atlantic-basin-20130925
Yesterday, I calculated at 4 pm an 18 feet storm surge from Hurricane Irma based on research articles.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/09/07/monster-hurricane-irma-sat-measurements-show-it-larger-than-the-state-of-florida-is-long/
This morning I watched a Weather Channel “weather boy” who is detailed to wait out Hurricane Irma at a hotel on the west side Key West which has a average elevation of 4-7 ft (high of about 13 ft). I expect that no one will find his body, or those of the stay-behind first responders, in the floating debris field.
https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/ClimateWaterFS_MiamiFL.pdf
It appears that the maximum hurricane surge will hit Key West by 2 am Sunday morning along with tides of 2.1 ft and wave sets which will add to the water height. http://www.tides4fishing.com/us/florida-florida-keys/key-west#_tide_table
Furthermore, no place on the Keys is safe as the highest elevation is held by “Windley Key at 18 ft above sea level!”
http://www.escape-floridakeys.com/Florida-Keys-Facts.aspx
For comparison see the historical flooding on October 24, 2005 from Hurricane Wilma with a high tide of 2 ft and a storm surge of an additional 3 ft.
http://www.cityofkeywest-fl.gov/topic/subtopic.php?topicid=65&structureid=1
Irma would appear to rival the 1935 hurricane which had a storm surge plus wave set led to almost 19 ft average water level above sea level at the Lower Matecumbe Key. http://flghc.org/ppt/2014/Workshops/WS139%20Local%20Storm%20Surge/2014-FLGHC-TS23_StormSurge-Rizzo.pdf
This has nothing to do with climate change as there are hundreds of factors that go into climate changes.
Changing weather trends inform us after analysis that the climate has changed. Climate doesn’t change first.
If any of the highway bridges between Key West and Miami fail, or are destroyed, it will be weeks/months before people can return to their homes in Key West…but let’s hope for the best… Well they could fly in…
Seems appropriate to drop this here (great movie!)
https://youtu.be/IYNp9SW0NYA
Was waiting for someone to do that. I’ve posted enough audiovisuals already today.
It is a great movie, and based upon a famous hurricane.
Both 1945 and 1947 were bad hurricane years for Florida.
Interestingly: Katia-Karl, Irma-Igor, Jose–Julia, trio with same initials. Now that might even make them more “paralleled”.
Joe Bastardi has posted his Saturday Summary video and the news is not good! IMO Joe and his Weatherbell team are as good as any at forecasting the track and intensity of storms. He is adamant that Irma will go north and blow back up again then come ashore in the vicinity of Port Charlotte, FL as a CAT V with wind gusts of 150 mph. Devastating.
https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/#joe-bastardi
At our vacation home in Port Charlotte the hurricane shutters are up and nobody is home but the neighbors on each side that are permanent residents have stayed. This is going to be bad, bad, bad. all along the West coast up through Tampa.
Hope that Joe’s team for once is wrong, and that the storm drifts aimlessly across the Gulf until blowing out. But the water there is warm, so probably not much chance of that.
There is a good case to be made for Joe’s forecast on solid forecast philosophy.
I respect Joe Bastardi and his forecasts. He said days ago that the storm would not go up the middle of FL but go ether up the east coast or the wast coast of Florida. He seems to be right…I just hope that the intensity because of the interaction with Cuba will not be as bad as predicted…my niece lives in Key West (did not leave during Wilma, but did now thankfully). Now she is in northern FL, but may experience some major effects of the Irma…
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/5-years-later-looking-back-at-hurricane-igor-1.3234312
Then I heard the weatherman say
“Vamoose, José’s on his way”
Then I knew, yes I knew I should run
(Apologies to Jay and the Americans)
Joe is also forecasting that Jose is going to be a problem for the US. Thinks it will get knocked down in intensity and then strengthen again to a CAT 3. Right now he think is it likely to strike the east coast around Cape Hatteras. But that’s a good ways into the future.
I could not resist. Shindig was one of my favorite TV shows.
Wow! You’re even more mature in years than I.
I believe Mr. Blake was attempting to say indirectly that things are much worse today [because of climate change]. But after he put his sign high up in the tree, people started making fun of it. And the climb down wasn’t pretty because when you look up into the tree all you see is the bum of a man carrying down a sign he realized he probably shouldn’t have put up in the tree in the first place.
Not that it matters to this exchange but Jose is now a threat during week 2 on many models.
Looks like the Mid Atlantic to the Northeast have the highest threat, which will likely look different in the coming days.
There may be another storm forming in the wake of Jose. Look at a doppler map of the Atlantic, southeast of Jose. If it does form, then Eric will be completely WRONG, again.
I had hoped that someone would dig up the 1998 four hurricanes, because the local weatherman – who was/is FAR MORE TRUTHFUL and ACCURATE than Eric – brought this up on Monday, showed the images, and provided the background for those four storms.
It appears that ol’ Eric the Bold has become Eric the Bloviater, and should learn when to shut his mouth or admit he made a serious mistake.
Thanks for the heads up, WUWT, and for doing the right thing.
So then 1998=4 hurricanes, 2017=3 hurricanes.
Obviously extreme weather/climate has decreased by 25%.
We need more CO2 to pacify it further.
Blake is not “technically correct.
Blake just compared historical apples to predicted grapefruit and claims there are obvious differences.
i.e. current predictions are as good as gospel and can be compared one for one against historical hurricane tracks.
When the picture of hurricane Julia was taken, there was not any surety that the storm would head north.
Just as there is zero surety that Jose will slam into the USA or even threaten more islands.
Blake fully displayed “brainless git” in a public forum while representing the NHC and the US Government.
Now Blake displays deep immaturity by being refusing to correct or better yet, retract his shallow inflammatory statement and immediately making changes to his tweets and avoiding further inflaming his mistake.
Instead, Blake digs his falsehood pit deeper and deeper till only the religious faithful will think “Blake is a credible meteorologist”.
If Blake can not control his twitter immaturity or be scientist enough to correct misconceptions he caused, then Blake shouldn’t be in the NHC masquerading as a neutral scientist.
Especially since Blake prefers twisting history in a futile pretense that Blake accurately stated hurricane fact.
Blake is rightfully excoriated for the headlines he caused.
Blake should be prevented from publishing anything or speaking to the pubic without a truly credible scientist first approving the statement.
If Blake can not control himself, his fingers and his mouth then the NHC should consider finding a publicly credible meteorologist.
It’s called professionalism and trustworthy.
“Our state has never seen anything like it!”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/magnitude-irma-drives-massive-evacuation-florida-051408113.html
What a load of Pelosi, with Schumer on top. (Sorry for that image.)
Tell that to the families of the 409 killed in the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. Or the more than 2500 in the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane.
Most lethal known FL hurricanes:
Name Year Number of deaths
“Okeechobee” 1928 2,500+
Unnamed 1781 2,000
Unnamed 1622 1,090
Unnamed Around 1553 700
Unnamed 1553 <700
Unnamed 1559 500
Unnamed 1559 ~500
Unnamed 1683 496
"Labor Day" 1935 409
"Miami" 1926 372
Unnamed 1563 284
"Florida Keys" 1906 240
We'll see how it compares to Andrew's death toll of 65.
heck with more than 5 million on the road getting out of dodge it is probably a good thing they are jammed up because if they weren’t the death toll from the evacuation alone may well come close to matching the Andrew total.
This truck driver doesn’t have to go down to Florida anymore and I’m darn glad of it. Sometimes it seems like those Blue hairs down in “Gods waiting room” are tired of waiting.
If you like FL snowbird drivers, you’ll love AZ.
Still go there some times. This year several runs to Casa Grande and Nogales. Arizona and about all the west with the exception of LA is a joy to drive in compared to the east coast. I-95 from Boston to Richmond is the Armpit of truck driving.
RAH,
I can well believe that.
But town traffic in southern AZ has to experienced to be believed.
You never know if a right turn signal blinking means that the car ahead of you is about to turn right, or has turned right in the past half hour.
That’s not original with me, but with a Filipina humorist from WA State, referring to the Ballard ‘hood in Seattle.
Used to enjoy the drive down to Laredo, TX but I-35 has gotten so bad now from Waco down through San Antonio it’s just a chore. I’ll be glad when they get I-69 put in down there. There was a time a few years ago when Texas was talking about putting in a toll road just for trucks down that way. At the time I thought it was not a good idea. Now……well…..
What would drive (!) me nuts is what a hunting and fishing buddy of mine does, ie drive the same 250-mile route every single day, to and fro.
The U.S. Interstate system was built to move the military and evacuate people. Maybe in some areas it should all be six lanes ?
RAH,
IMO, toll roads have their place. A quick way to get a project built and paid for.
In LA, where everybody drives, freeway makes sense. But for an extension intended to help trucks move more quickly, makes sense to me.
The Chilean version of US I-5, Ruta Cinco, is all toll for its whole 2500-mile length. With modern automatic pay systems, the tolls aren’t even that annoying.
Glad to hear that there at least some routes which you enjoy driving and aren’t deadly dull and boring.
Sixto
I may complain and whine but the fact is, if I didn’t enjoy my job I wouldn’t be doing it. I love driving, always have, and so driving is fun most days for me. And believe or not, there is a lot of satisfaction in doing the job when others can’t or won’t and doing it right. And that is what I do. I’m paid a salary to be an “on-call” driver. When things go wrong and a driver doesn’t show up, or there is some screw up, or sometimes when they have a new run to someplace where they need someone to go the first time and then give them feed back for directions for future drivers, or if the weather is forecast to be bad in an area and no drivers want to take the run, I will be one of the five drivers at a terminal with 300 drivers that will be called to go. It keeps the job interesting for me and I get to go different places instead of running to the same places all the time as the majority of drivers do. And it pays well while at the same time I get more home time that if I were getting paid by the mile. I’ll be doing this job as long as my health holds out and I can pass the physical.
[Stay safe. Enjoy your family, enjoy your life. .mod]
Then you are truly blessed to enjoy your work so much.
I overdue the Snowbird driving bit. My wife is Angla from MN, more Scandinavian than technically Angla, so we see a lot of her compatriots driving when visiting her mom and dad in AZ. The locals debate whether MN or IA license plates are more dangerous.
You’ve survived and thrived despite all the hazards of the freeways and toll roads, enjoying it all the time, so more power to you. Especially if your family is OK with your extended absences. It sounds as if your schedule is ideal though, if you aren’t gone for long stretches every week.
This summer driving season has been hard on drivers, between smoke in the West and wind and wet in the East and South.
Keep on truckin’! But be safe out there.
The death toll in the past was due to lack of forecasting, poor evacuation, and the wrong sort of ships.. Not strength of hurracane.
Death toll is a very poor measure of hurracane strength only of human tragedy.
Your post is pointless.
Maybe Eric Blake believes in anthropomorphic climate change rather than anthropogenic climate change. The hurricanes are “threatening land” and trying to get us as punishment for our evil ways!
Then he’s in good company. Jennifer Lawrence, a great actress but a total bimbette when not playing someone else, would agree.
Maybe Eric Blake doesn’t understand that engaging in hyperbole without doing due diligence and research first and providing backup can embarrass someone in ways that he will not live down for a very long time.
I know someone else who is just as bad about this kind of thing as Eric Blake, and regularly gets verbally pounded for it.
Showing yet again, as if more evidence were needed, that “climate scientists” aren’t scientists.
That’s ridiculous, as far as I can tell, Eric Blake thinks no such thing.
I assumed that Scott was kidding.
Forecast now is for max of 127 mph winds over SW FL, with storm surge possibly 15 feet.
A far cry from The Worst Evah!
But no joking matter.
More blatant lies:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/155-mph-winds-hurricane-irma-154914547.html
That’s a weak Cat 5, not a strong one. That speed is the absolute lower limit of Cat 5.
Sixto there is a photo of a tree in San Maartin with its bark stripped off by IRMA. That supposedly readies 200 mph winds, according to the Wiki.report of the 1780 huricane
http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/9/7/162643
It’s the one of a tree bent double in front of a grey SUV. Taken by Gerben Van Es, the 29th photo in the series. Now that is supposedly never happened since 1780!
Sixto, earlier you indicated that 100% of the buildings were wrecked by the 1780 hurricane, a quick check in wiki indicates that most of the buildings were destroyed, a couple of churches St Peter and St Philip on Barbados were untouched . Similarly the catedral de Santa maria la menor built 1540 was still standing. This is not 100% as you stated.
You seem to be a lax in your reporting and are slipping in what Dean Swift stated was not the truth.
Now Barbuda is reporting 95% destruction.in housing and St Martin has trees without bark.
This hurricane has matched the anecdotal and reconstructions evidence for the 1780 event
have to say i didn’t notice the tree with stripped bark when looking at the pictures. the picture i really liked had some people smiling ,relaxing and drinking beer .
i always wondered why in areas of the world where there is an actual named hurricane season people continue to build on low lying land and with materials unsuitable to high wind speeds. why are there no centrally located hurricane shelters in each area ,raised in areas where flooding would be expected.
do people in areas affected like this really think there won’t be another hurricane once the latest one passes. i think it shows either the stupidity or stubbornness of humanity knows no bounds.possibly a bit of both.
More mendacity from liars claiming to be scientists:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/series-potent-hurricanes-stokes-scientific-debate-155405459.html
Active cycle since 1995? What about no US landfalling hurricanes between 2005 and 2017?
Clean Air Act blamed, along with global warming, of course.
Blake needs “hole science” training. When you’re in one, stop digging.
Looks like Jose won’t be hitting any land…looks like a retractment is in order
The weather report this morning was that Jose will make a loop and head northwest, to pound New England. Probably the Maritime Provinces, too, but that’s Canada and wasn’t included in the weather story. It may, of course, change over the next few days.
Looking at nhc.noaa.gov. shows Jose looping around and doing a bunch of nothing
Just for perspective, .. I consider myself fairly intelligent, but when I saw that headline with those three images of hurricanes, I took the message literally and simply as presented — namely, as three hurricanes all at once, in a row behind one another, NEVER, EVER seen before in the history of human kind, with an implied message of ominous evil underlying this visual configuration.
Any efforts to defend the headline by appealing to specific storm-path details or predictions of landfall are BS. The raw visceral, visual impact of the image said nothing of these details. And the raw visceral, visual impact of the image with the limited wording of the headline had EXACTLY the effect that those words portrayed, along with its ominous unspoken underpinnings.
In short, this story WAS fake news. And an intelligent person should admit this and maybe even apologize for going for sensationalism at the expense of accurate information.
The explains a lot – the attention span of a gerbil.
If a picture is worth a thousand words, then the few words (headline) that accompanies it should be well chosen to indicate whether those thousand words are worth reading in depth. That’s the purpose of headlines.
In a busy world, a person uses headlines as filters to determine what they read in full and what they do not. Abusing this common knowledge with fake headlines is fraudulent, and anybody who tries to defend it on any level is complicit in such a fraud.