Climate Craziness of the Week – @kurteichenwald: "I predicted Irma using 'climate equation' 100% correct"

From the ‘I’m not a scientist but I play one in Vanity Fair” department comes this ridiculous tweet from writer Kurt Eichenwald.

Via Wikipedia: no mention of climate or weather skill:

Kurt Alexander Eichenwald (born June 28, 1961) is an American journalist who serves as a senior writer with Newsweek, a contributing editor with Vanity Fair and a New York Times bestselling author of four books, one of which, The Informant (2000), was made into a motion picture in 2009. He was formerly a writer and investigative reporter with The New York Times and later with Condé Nast‘s business magazine, Portfolio. Eichenwald had been employed by The New York Times since 1986 and primarily covered Wall Street and corporate topics such as insider tradingaccounting scandals, and takeovers, but also wrote about a range of issues including terrorism, the Bill Clinton pardon controversy, Federal health care policy, and sexual predators on the Internet.

Of course, that makes him highly qualified (in Alt-climate world) to say things like this:

Rightfully, since he didn’t show any work, he’s being flamed in replies to that tweet.

Dr Ryan Maue was quick to weigh in:

UPDATE: Eichenwald’s ego explodes:

Then, oh never mind, blame it on Fox news!

Advertisements

  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Bruce Cobb

Was it the same “climate change equation” that predicted the 12-year hurricane drought? Oh wait, there wasn’t one. Never mind.

talldave2

It just gets worse and worse. The tagline of this column is “fighting pseudoscience.” It’s like they think 1984 was an instruction manual.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevensalzberg/2017/09/05/houston-weve-got-a-problem-its-called-global-warming/#664f73681380

TheDoctor

They DO think it’s a manual!

Sheri

Yes, even college kids and high schoolers think 1984 is an instruction manual. They do not in any way understand it was a warning. Worse yet, 1984 has no solution presented, so it’s an instruction manual for a society that becomes eternal and cannot be changed, at least to the thinking of the younger generation and poorly educated.

Joel Snider

Sheri: Hollywood has always amazed me in that regard – half-a-century they’ve been adapting and telling these sorts of cautionary tales, and now they’re enacting them.

Green Sand

Jeez! and its only Tuesday!

Sheri

After a holiday. They need something big to catch your attention on a day like that!

Hugs

Step up, shout ‘bullshit’, and be prepared to be attacked by those who call you a denier. Sigh. It was bullshit anyway, of course.

john

LOL! Eichenwald is deleting tweet and going ‘Full On John Podesta’ on twitter with rants!
https://mobile.twitter.com/kurteichenwald

john

IN THE DEMOCRATIC ECHO CHAMBER, INCONVENIENT TRUTHS ARE RECAST AS PUTIN PLOTS
https://www.google.com/amp/s/static.theintercept.com/amp/in-the-democratic-echo-chamber-inconvenient-truths-are-recast-as-putin-plots.html
MORE INSIDIOUS AND subtle, but even worse, was what Newsweek and its Clinton-adoring writer Kurt Eichenwald did last night. What happened — in reality, in the world of facts — was extremely trivial. One of the emails in the second installment of the WikiLeaks/Podesta archive — posted yesterday — was from Sidney Blumenthal to Podesta. The sole purpose of Blumenthal’s email was to show Podesta one of Eichenwald’s endless series of Clinton-exonerating articles, this one about Benghazi. So in the body of the email to Podesta, Blumenthal simply pasted the link and the full contents of the article. Although the purpose of Eichenwald’s article (like everything he says and does) was to defend Clinton

marque2

He seems to misunderstand DACA and healthcare as well.

Curious George

OK, where will Irma make a landfall, and when?

Greg

Sorry , the magic formula only gives intensity and timing to 100% accuracy, I’m still working on track predictions. 😉

RWturner

The climate change equation can only formulate things that happened already.

talldave2

A simple linear extrapolation shows that Irma will not need to make landfall — by the end of the week, wind speeds will reach 300 mph, as the storm wall reaches inland simply by expanding. Within another week, wind speeds over 500 mph will scour Gaia’s enemies from North America, followed the week after by the rest of the Earth, which will eventually be torn apart by Irma’s planet-girdling >1200 mph winds sometime next month.
Just had to drive that SUV, huh?

Jaakko Kateenkorva

It’s just a question of where Irma happens to be. Winds on Venus gust at 250 mph and 740 K, but Neptune’s winds blow nearly supersonic at 1300 mph and 55 K. The cooling sulphuric clouds on Venus slow Irma down. /sarc

Leo Smith

Bang on the SW tip of Florida, Sunday morning.
It will be very very bad.
Then it will rip up the east coast before wandering off into the Atlantic.
The public will be told it’s all about climate change, and enough will believe it to make Trumps position almost untenable.
It will set science back a generation.

rocketscientist

Science has already been set back a generation, as has education in general. Perhaps more than one lost generation.

michael hart

Like with the British Royal Family, some suggest it might now be a good idea to skip a generation.

USexpat

The stupid, it burns. I’m ok with stupid and even ignorant. What really burns me it the willful and blatant lies. This smuck is not stupid or ignorant. He’s part of the problem that needs to be addressed with lampposts and hemp. Give it time folks. Give it time.

Greg

So where is the evidence of his prediction? Did he make it public or just write on the back of an envelop yesterday and bring it out ?
Timing “100%” ? OK let’s see it .
Maybe he would like to share his magic “climate equation” for public inspection. He certainly need to given credit for all this hard work !

rocketscientist

On any given day there exists some prophet of doom strutting around with a sign predicting some impending catastrophe, and eventually one will be correct, but this is no rationale for the correctness or prognostication abilities.
How often in the past has this buffoon been incorrect? One correct guess out of many is not a sign of reliable guessing.
“One would expect that a soothsayer would not be able to look another soothsayer in the face without laughing.”

Greg

…. and I have invented a way to turn shit into gold. It works 100% of the time when there is a major storm brewing.

john harmsworth

Sorry, Greg. He beat you to it!

Liz

I read that he used the Clausius-Clapeyron equation to predict the hurricane. Is this possible?

Gary Pearse

Kurt probably thinks Clausius-Clapeyron was a Roman emperor or a venerial disease.

Or a Roman Emperor witha venereal disease?

Tom Judd

Clausius The Clap

MarkW

Dickus Maximus?

vukcevic

did you mean Coles Maximus ?

Curious George

That would be David Appell. Kurt is a good writer.

Greg

This creep looks like a psychopath. A cold menacing stare like he’s about to pull someone’s fingernails out very slowly and enjoy every minute of it.

Oddly enough, if you can track down the thread on Twitter where he brings up tentacle p0rn (while talking to his ‘adult son’, lol) you will be amused for hours reading the massive amount of flames sent his way.

john harmsworth

He just needs a little more self inflation to look exactly like Michael Mann!

Cliff Hilton

@Kurt Eichenwald ✔ @kurteichenwald
Can you please give us the names of the remaining storms, their intensity and timing, for 2017?
Cliff

Caligula Jones

Yes, just using the old National Enquirer model: print 1,000 predictions, trumpet the one you got kinda right.
In this case, at least the National Enquirer actually printed their predictions.
This drip apparently is trying to take credit for predicting something without actually showing that he did.
BTW, DON’T search for his name and “tentacle”…I warned you.

AZ1971

National Enquirer? Pfft ….. the best rag on the newsstands was the Weekly World News, by far. Whilst the National Enquirer wasted valuable money on unnecessary things like coloured ink, the WWN instead devoted its ink budget towards getting the scoop on the really important news of the day, like Bat Boy and killer snails in Texas. Quality reporting if ever there was such a thing!

SMC

Tentacle Porn!?! WTF!?!?!
I should have heeded your warning.

SMC

I made the mistake of looking up his name and tentacle. Looks like my first comment got lost in moderation… I should have heeded your warning. I think I’m scarred for life.

MarkW

Whenever someone yells, “don’t look”, half the people will automatically look.

Resourceguy

He is a NYT “journalistic scientist” who may claim Nobel Laureate status at any time. Stay tuned.

TheDoctor

Maybe he can borrow Micky M. prize for a while?

Raven

I was pretty impressed with Ryan Maue, too.
He’s a hurricane scientist . . if there is such a thing.

Raven

Ooops, I should retract that because it reads a little snarky.
Apparently Ryan Maue is one.

Stephen Richards

RYAN IS ONE OF THE BEST

Mark

Wow, think of all the lives he could save. He has a moral obligation to share his amazing gift. If he doesn’t, I’m sure alarmists will be outraged. (Extreme sarc)

Steve Case

So this guy is…

…a journalist, senior writer, contributing editor, bestselling author, investigative reporter, covering Wall Street, insider trading, accounting scandals, takeovers, plus terrorism, the Clinton pardons, health care policy, and sexual predators…

And he writes this?

I used a climate change equation &, using sea surface temps, predicted Irma intensity growth & timing. 100% correct.

Maybe someone stole his identity.

Hugs

Well, sounds like it.

ren
Rhoda R

Is there any chance that jet stream will push Irma northward and out over the Atlantic?
[Yes, there is a chance that will occur. But disaster sells newspapers, TV time, and web-counted clicks on web sites. Also, “gloom and disaster-doomed” scenarios do encourage some people to prepare for potential disasters. Several models – but not all! – predict paths that stay east of FL. .mod]

john harmsworth

I really have no idea what Irma is going to do but I’ll wing it and say that looking at nullschool it appears most likely that it will pound Jamaica and Cuba and then run aground in Central america. At least I have the cojones to post my prediction before it happens! You folks are my witnesses!

ren

It seems to me that rather south.

ren

Hurricane IRMA
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 05, 2017:
Location: 16.9°N 59.2°W
Maximum Winds: 160 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb

HomeChef

He is 100% correct that when you apply the climate equation of H=Harvey I= Irma, then Irma would be the next tropical storm/hurricane.

Rainer Bensch

I predict the next after Irma is Kurt.

Gary Pearse

This is what happens when climate scientists make brazenly unsupported statements of climate doom. It pushes science further into the post normal where heartfelt opinions are valid and where the butcher, the baker, the candlestickmaker… are welcome to participate. They do stick, come what may, to the CO2 heating formula that was handed down on a clay tablet by acolytes of Maurice Strong. Notice that no mainstream CliSci or fawning fake news outlets are calling bull to this. Heck, even the florist or the seamstress is qualified to call BS on such stupidity.

jorgekafkazar

Maybe that’s Eichenwald’s point. He just left the sarc tag off his tweet.

Resourceguy

So what is his prediction for Hurricane Betsy?

The U.S. has got to get control of the use of marijuana. It has reached epidemic proportions.

MarkW

Pot makes sperm swim around in circles, not hurricanes.

Fred White

clockwise or anti clockwise or does it depend on the hemisphere?

Rhee

maybe it depends on the hemisphere on which the variety is cultivated

vukcevic

I also made prediction, according to the prevailing ‘scientific consensus’ it was only 97% accurate.
/sarc

R.S. Brown
Michael S. Kelly

Wow! I hadn’t seen this before, Anthony, but you have scored with the appellation “Alt-Climate world”! What a great counter to the term “denier”!

Nigel s

‘Ctrl-Climate’ world? (otherwise known as Ctrl-C)

jorgekafkazar

Shift happens.

Hugs

A meta-joke.

Gunga Din

Hmmm…this could be an idea for Josh.
The Climate Seancetist Keyboard.
It would not have a “Pause” key.
The “Num Lock” key would be replaced by the “Num Adjust” key.
The ‘Delete” key would be extra large for dealing with FOAI request.
Of course, every key would be a “Hot Key”
IE “Shift+G” would move the goalpost.
(The “Esc” key would be a “No Esc” key and a slider which would self-adjust to be nearer or farther depending where the “Shift-G” sit the goalpost for dthe next “tipping point”.)
And “C+O+2” would melt the computer’s Gaia-board.

J Mac

Thank You, Dr. Maue!
That was not a ‘shot across the bow’.
It was straight through the boiler room!

Eichenwald is a dweeb with a litany of a-hole journalistic accomplishments…a real jerk.

Mark from the Midwest

12 years ago I predicted that some know-nothing boob that writes for one or more rags that are popular on the Upper West Side would make an assertion so offensive to the nature of human knowledge that it was beyond ridicule …
I’m 100% right

I’m impressed ! Truly a prophet 🙂

Gunga Din

I assume that by “Midwest” he means the US Midwest.
That means he must have rubbed his crystal balls counter-clockwise rather than clockwise as Mann “et al” seem to be doing.
(SORRY! Sorry! Sorry. sorry. 😎

john harmsworth

Predicting that sort of thing could keep you really busy!

I just love the sizzling retorts and comments about Eichenwald’s absurdity. If I were the least bit intelligent, I would write at least one as well, but I ain’t got it.

Vince W.

Looks like he dumped the tweet. Not surprising.

Tom Halla

100% accurate? Eichenwald should remember that 97% is the green blob tag for BS stats.

Vince W.

Yup! “Im deleting my hurricane tweet because idiots arent getting point. Climatologists use math to calculate. Math works. Idiots use fox news.
73 replies 124 retweets 631 likes”

jorgekafkazar

Suspicion confirmed. He was being sarcastic/ironic. Much more ironic than he realized. Who’s the idiot, Kurt? I think we all know the answer. Math works, but you have to know all the underlying physics, otherwise you just have mathematical wanker models that soon go off the rails…as has happened with virtually all of your twee “climate models.” Ignorance is no excuse, Kurt. Get out of your bubble or shut up.

Ray in SC

If he would have claimed it was a satire of Michael Mann’s claim about preictictimg Harvey it would have been spot on funny.

Ray in SC

“predicting Harvey”, sorry but I had a ‘convfefe’ moment.

hunter

A journalist who doesn’t know mean from median but can do maths with “formulas” that don’t exist and get resukts that are transparently fabricated.
Sounds like Kurt fits right in with the consensus.

Tom Judd

You folks are being way to cruel to our dear Kurt Eichenwald and very disrespectful of his true abilities. So, I’m going to set you straight and describe what I think I’ve seen with my own eyes:
The other night I was at a seance, and alone amongst the five of us only Eichenwald was able to connect with the dead. In fact, he actually connected with General Ulysses S. Grant who informed him that history was mistaken and that it was actually Grant himself who surrendered to Robert E. Lee.
But, that’s not all. Later, Eichenwald showed us that a Ouija board genuinely does work (as opposed to ungenuinely). He asked the board questions, for which everybody in attendance knew the answers (and we absolutely knew the answers since the events had already occurred), and gosh dang it, the Ouija board got every question right.
Ok, there was one question, but only one, that despite Kurt’s psychic presence, the Oujia board simply could not answer. One of the attendees asked if any of Kurt Eichenwald’s girlfriends had ever faked their orgasms.

Ill Tempered Klavier

Jeez, Tom. That question’s even worse than asking a lady her age 😉 😉
Kat ( female person of color / red

phaedo

I seem to recall another harebrained journalist who made very wild claims on this august blog not so long ago. He was simply looking for PR too.

MarkW

Make 100 predictions, but don’t tell anyone about them.
When one of them is correct, run to the front of the line and proclaim your brilliance.

Resourceguy

…and to the front of the marathon race from a side road.

Mark from the Midwest

please, at least Ms. Ruiz made no pretensions about actually knowing anything, recall the “what’s an interval?” comment during the interview with Kathy Switzer

Mary Brown

Nice Ruiz reference. That lady lives on forever.

John Bell

The LEFT crying wolf again…

Gary Pearse

I, in fact, was 100% correct on the coming hurricanes, predicting the end of the ‘cane drought in 2013:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/01/hurricane-season-begins-with-a-new-record-hurricane-drought-for-the-usa/#comment-1323734
I posted this on the Ryan Maye thread.

OneUp1234

Before pounding on Kurt too much, please understand he does have some medical issues. Google Kurt Eichenwald Tucker Carlson and you will see. Its probably not morally right to attack him. Of course Newsweek is open game.

Old Grump

Grandma always said “If you can’t say something nice about someone, then it’s best to just say nothing at all.”
So, for Grandma’s sake, all I’ll say about Mr. E is well just bless his pea-picking little heart.

Andrew Cooke

LOL! Heh, I just can’t stop laughing. This guy is hilarious.
Oh, wait, it gets better! He’s actually serious! Oh my stomach is hurting from laughing so hard!
Stop! I can barely breathe……..heh. What a numbskull.

Bill Illis

He says he used this equation.comment image
Which I doubt predicts hurricanes and probably doesn’t have real-time data for either.

But I like the simplicity of that equation. There´s no co2 in there, so it is probably more correct than most of climate science.
But I like that bullshit-measuring device even more, it seems sturdy. Look at how the needle bends, it can handle a lot of bullshit, unlike me. Where can I buy one?

Michael S. Kelly

What on earth does “L” stand for?

Michael S. Kelly

…and don’t say “Spanish for ‘The'”.

Rhee

loser?

vukcevic

L is ‘latent heat ‘ or “energy released or absorbed, by a body or a thermodynamic system, during a constant-temperature process.” – says somewhere or another

mikewaite

L is the latent heat of evaporation of water, (in this instance) .
I guess by now everyone has twigged that this character has taken his terminology for a standard thermodynamic equation for equilibrium between phases. from a book of that eminent climate scientist , Maurice Salby , p112 of Fundamentals of Atmospheric Physics.
Of course a hurricane is hardly equilibrium , so need to refer to Houghton ‘s use of the equation in calculating the vertical distribution of saturated air , and then Coriolis comes into play .
So it would be interesting if this journalist could tell us how he manged to proceed from the equilibrium equation to a violently rotating body of water saturated air. I am sure that he could teach us a lot.

Sunderlandsteve

Specific latent heat, apparently.

Phil

Straight out of Wikipedia.. All this means is that warmer air will hold more moisture. To give another example of the stupidity of his tweet, it would be like saying that you calculated a nuclear bomb with a formula that was 100% accurate and then saying the formula you used was E=mc^2.

Excellent. Wish Maue would have said something to that effect in his tweet.

Mary Brown

Nice… except my old pompous prof would say “Air doesn’t actually hold water, it coexists with it”. We would roll eyes. Technically he was right I suppose

Sheri

Should have guessed! The authoritative Wikipedia!

I’m pretty sure that its used somewhere in hurricane modelling but surely even a writer could pick that you need a lot more – or at least one more equation with time in it! If you’re even that innumerate, at least a good journalist would know that NOAA just spent $44.5M on a computer upgrade for its modelling. There would be some serious questions to be answered if the calculation could be done on paper with a basic Cassio.

mikewaite

This site is frequently informed of the antics of journalistic or political activists who manage to convince politicians and the media that they could and should take the place of professional scientists in the corridors of power especially on the subject of climate change.
Each time I read about them a little ditty comes to mind: form WS Gibert :
“Stick close to your desks and never go to sea
And you all may be Rulers of the Queen’s Navy”
Of course eventually the day came when the King’s navy faced its most dangerous encounter for 100 years at Jutland in 1916 . A battle that was almost lost , causing Admiral Beatty to complain :” something wrong with our ships today” . Yes all those years of desk sailors displacing professional navy men as satirised by Gilbert .
We get rid of professional scientists and replace them with Oreskes and Klein and this fellow at our peril.

Ill Tempered Klavier

And William Henry Smith was known as “Pinafore Smith” to his dying day.

Pinroot

In addition to his interest in tentacle porn, there is this:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/kurt-eichenwald-case-texas-grand-jury-says-gif-deadly-weapon-n736316
Thanks to him, an animated gif was considered to be a deadly weapon.
And, finally, this:
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/press_box/2007/03/eichenwalds_weird_checkbook_journalism.html
Pretty bad when Slate isn’t on your side

CCB

All this reminds one of the quote of the year:
‘When you are dead, you do not know that you are dead.
All of the pain is felt by others.
The same thing happens when you are stupid.’

Andrew Cooke

Hey Eichenwald, you know your mouth and ego is writing checks that this equation can’t cash, right? Hurricanes are hardly in equilibrium. My Differential Equations teacher would have given me an F if I had popped this one out on a test.

Moderately Cross of East Anglia

Perhaps he can give us answers to questions Science hasn’t thought of yet?

Gary

Why do we need climate scientists when under-educated journalists will do?

Sheri

An excellent question.

troe

A writer for the usual suspects… which is how they became the usual suspects

Neo

Isn’t this the guy who’s wife claimed somebody online tried to kill him with a pulsating gif file ?

marque2

test

marque2

Tentacle pr0n is mainstream. I saw it with my kids on Galaxy Quest.

Mary Brown

One of the funniest movies ever.

texasjimbrock

I watch it every time it shows up on the TV. Great visuals until the end…the space ship looks like a toy. But the rock monster…uh…rocks!

the Exorcist

Lol some of the acting was too campy but it was still a funny movie

MarkW

It was supposed to be campy.
If you have ever read any of the backstage gossip from the original Star Trek show, it’s even funnier.

Mary Brown

“I’m deleting the hurricane tweet because you idiots aren’t getting the point”
Well he got that part right.
Pretty funny he calls Maue the idiot.

Sheri

I think the problem was the “idiots” did get the point. It was the author who didn’t understand what point he made.

texasjimbrock

Way back when I was doing thermodynamics problems we always defined the variables in our equations. I am guessing that P is pressure, T is temperature ..but is L the latent heat? Is delta S the change in entropy? What units is he using? Looks like just another journalist in way over his head.

P is vapor pressure.