Models have lately been trending hurricane Irma to hit southern Florida, with a turn to the north, driving it through the center of the state as a Cat4 or Cat5 Hurricane. Hurricane expert, Dr. Ryan Maue notes:
“GFS 00z track shifted considerably to west. Regardless of intensity issues, still a plausible track & worst case scenario”
Indeed, it is a worst case scenario for Florida. Let us hope the model is wrong.
He adds:
Similar track from ECMWF 00z (w/input of aircraft recon data) as GFS. South Florida should closely monitor progress of Hurricane
#Irma
And he adds most recently this morning:
Latest ensembles from U.S. GEFS model system continue trend west w/many solutions over south Florida & in eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Some other model output has much greater uncertainty. Dr. Roy Spencer notes on his Facebook page:
Latest GFS pushes Irma even farther west before turning north. It crosses Cuba, then goes north through the Keys and then roughly up the middle of Florida:
However, while shorter GFS model runs makes it look like Irma is headed right for south Florida, this longer forecast has it landing in Virginia, which would require a strong northward curve later this week–which GFS and NHC both discuss as likely. But EVERYONE in eastern Caribbean and entire US east coast south of, say, Massachusetts should be watching and preparing.
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Here is an interesting thought derived from observations. Did the blocking eastward flowing surface winds around 55 N and below Greenland lead to a hurricane track that will have a higher probability to strike within the Gulf of Mexico and the US eastern seaboard?…https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-43.50,40.69,581/loc=-34.859,53.815
That pattern of eastward moving surface winds started in early July and has persisted ever since. It was one of the clues which led me to think that the Greenland SMB melt would end early, perhaps as early as mid month and that is exactly what took place. The main change that these surface winds brought about was that north flowing streams were blocked below Greenland and to the east. That went hand in hand with southern flowing arctic air flows down into the North Atlantic. I think that another consequence of this change was that temps in Greenland dropped, and so the gain in SMB. Consider the difference in hurricane track patterns where in the last 3 years many hurricanes moved straight up the Atlantic, which meant strong north flowing surface winds moving into the North Atlantic waters, then into the eastern arctic region.
Around 3 years ago I also commented on a related post that this year would likely be the first hurricane season where land falling hurricanes would strike. My reasoning for that had to with the my projection for a return to negative ENSO conditions, and that the hurricane record indicated to me that the most likely times for increased land falling hurricanes is during a cool period, such as between the mid 1940s to the mid 1970s. The hurricane record also looked like La Nina/negative ENSO conditions are a component of increased probability for land striking hurricanes. Do the blocking winds at 55 N lead to an increase to the south in sst and air temps thus leading to more hurricane conducive, temp/wind conditions?
High solar activity causes jetstream in the north to accelerate.
http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00930/aehsc743an7a.gif
Nice analysis, Goldminor, but your final sentence is a little off. Sea surface temperatures and air temperatures are almost always conducive for tropical cyclone development during the hurricane season over the Tropical Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Those aren’t the limiting factors. Atmospheric conditions are much more important. Tropical waves generally need a very calm (relative to the wave movement) upper atmosphere in order for the system to get better organized. It doesn’t take take much wind in the mid and upper levels to shear a developing cyclone and kill it. Dry air from any direction can also have a major impact on a storm. It doesn’t matter how warm the water is. If the atmosphere isn’t right, no storm will form.
Bill Gray pioneered our understanding of ENSO and tropical cyclone behavior in the Western Hemisphere back in the 80s. Indeed, hurricanes are generally more prevalent in La Nina and La Nada years than they are in El Nino Years, precisely because El Ninos tend to keep the upper atmosphere moving more, creating more shear over the tropics.
Since 2005 there has been a fairly persistent upper level trough over the Western Atlantic or Eastern US Seaboard during the heart of the hurricane season, recurving storms before reaching the US. This year, the trough has set up a little more to the west, allowing the subtropical ridge to grow west and steer more storms towards the US mainland. I believe this is linked to your observations of the North Atlantic.
+10…thanks for filling in more detail.
If there’s one thing we can say for sure it’s that Costco will have a record Q3 selling water.
Is that a scientic fiction an idea of destroying or weaken a huge hurricane by an explosion of thermobaric bomb in his eye?