The Sky is Falling Friday Part 1: Study: Aircraft Will Have More Difficulty Flying Because Climate

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

A study published by Columbia University has suggested climate will disrupt future flight operations because it will be more difficult for aircraft to take off.

Climate change may hinder aircraft takeoffs in years ahead: study

Alana Wise

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Extreme heat over the next several decades will make it more difficult for full planes to get off the ground, requiring airlines to offload fuel, cargo and at times even passengers to manage smooth takeoffs, according to a study by a research unit of Columbia University released on Thursday.

If severe heat waves related to climate change become more common in the coming years, researchers at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory have concluded that 10 percent to 30 percent of fully loaded planes may have to shed payload during the hottest parts of the day or delay flight until cooler hours.

“Our results suggest that weight restrictions may impose a non-trivial cost on airlines and impact aviation operations around the world,” said Ethan Coffel, lead author of the study and a doctoral student at Columbia.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-climatechange-idUSKBN19Y0YD

The abstract of the study;

The impacts of rising temperatures on aircraft takeoff performance

Authors

Ethan D. Coffel, Terence R. Thompson, Radley M. Horton

Steadily rising mean and extreme temperatures as a result of climate change will likely impact the air transportation system over the coming decades. As air temperatures rise at constant pressure, air density declines, resulting in less lift generation by an aircraft wing at a given airspeed and potentially imposing a weight restriction on departing aircraft. This study presents a general model to project future weight restrictions across a fleet of aircraft with different takeoff weights operating at a variety of airports. We construct performance models for five common commercial aircraft and 19 major airports around the world and use projections of daily temperatures from the CMIP5 model suite under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios to calculate required hourly weight restriction. We find that on average, 10–30% of annual flights departing at the time of daily maximum temperature may require some weight restriction below their maximum takeoff weights, with mean restrictions ranging from 0.5 to 4% of total aircraft payload and fuel capacity by mid- to late century. Both mid-sized and large aircraft are affected, and airports with short runways and high temperatures, or those at high elevations, will see the largest impacts. Our results suggest that weight restriction may impose a non-trivial cost on airlines and impact aviation operations around the world and that adaptation may be required in aircraft design, airline schedules, and/or runway lengths.

Read more: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-017-2018-9

All this ignores likely advances in aircraft construction, the complete inability of climate models to forecast global temperatures, let alone regional temperatures, and the growing likelihood that climate models have grossly overestimated climate sensitivity to CO2 emissions.

But lets assume the authors of the study are right. There is an obvious solution; if aircraft are likely to be adversely affected by midday heat, avoid scheduling takeoffs for midday.

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Non Nomen

…This study presents a general model…

Thanks, over and out.

Goldrider
Non Nomen

Laudabe. He got things right.

Non Nomen

Laudable, of course.

Retired_Engineer_Jim

Quote from the article – not particularly OT:
“News has now come that Michael Mann, a “world leading climate change scientist” to the AGW zealots, has refused to submit the data behind his infamous “hockey stick” graph in a defamation lawsuit against a Canadian scholar and another one against noted conservative writer Mark Steyn. He may now be in contempt of court in Canada and the United States both. For those who have not followed the arcana of the AGW debate, Mann’s “hockey stick” graph is nothing if not the proof positive of global warming for his acolytes. By putting together two different graphs, Mann makes 400 years (900-1300) of medieval global warming, when temperatures were much higher than today, disappear. Some call that fraud, others, like Mann’s friend, Phil Jones, of the East Anglia Climate Research Unit, “Mike’s nature trick to hide the decline.” Whatever the case, Mann’s fraudulent stick is a key piece of evidence in the IPCC 2001 assessment and has been cited hundreds of times in the AGW literature. Without it, there is not much left to global warming.”
I can just see judges citing Distinguished Professor Michael Mann for contempt of court.

M Seward

Take a silly topic, create a model, feed it garbage in, review the garbage out and write it up. Result = LPU (least publishable unit), kaching goes the cash register and academic life goes on.

Bryan A

All they would probably need to do is redesign new planes and retrofit existing planes with extending slats in the wing trailing edge. The slats are extended doring takeoff and landings to reduce the speed necessary to induce lift. Greater wing area is more lift. Simply increase the length of the slats to counter for the less dence hot air

Trebla

On the plus side, doesn’t warmer air have a lower density and offer less drag, thereby reducing fuel costs? Isn’t that one of the reasons why jets are flown at high altitudes? Just asking.

Jay Turberville

Did they also consider the gains that would be enjoyed by warmer winters and fewer icing problems?

Bryan A

Trebla,
Warmer air Does have a lower density. This density difference has little effect on the aircraft that is traveling at 620mph though other than increased efficiency through less drag. Problem is, they can’t take off at 620mph to negate the effect of less dence air. Take off speed is around 180 – 200mph and air density makes a huge difference at that speed

FerdiEgb

There is another -real- problem with too high temperatures: the motor power drops with lower air density:
Less air is compressed and thus less fuel can be burned and the motor runs at lower compression, thus losing a lot of power.
At the factory where I was working, we had a 24 MW generator powered by a fixed airplane motor. On hot days the maximum yield was 22 MW, due to the compression loss, thus some 10% power loss on (for here normally 30-35°C) hot days.
Recently they had to stop air flight take offs at Phoenix, Arizona, because of that problem, when temperatures reached 48°C, even too hot for Phoenix…
But indeed the basic questions remain: why should that increase further, what is the human part in it and what if airplane motor manufacturers find a solution in some technique to temporarily boost power…

FerdiEgb

I hadn’t read a lot of other comments, but indeed airports at higher altitudes have the same – or – worse problem, they only need longer runways and the problem is solved…
Further, the problems at Phoenix were mostly for smaller aircraft, all other flights were at schedule…

MarkW

High altitude air is cold, which increases the efficiency of jet engines.

MarkW

Did a transfer one summer in the Madrid airport.
The plane we were on was delayed because of temperature, they needed to wait until the longest runway was open as the temperature had gotten to hot for the plane to take off from any of the shorter runways. (The delay was long enough that we lost our transAtlantic slot and had to wait almost an hour before the next slot was available.

czechlist

But, doesn’t the modeling predict that most of the world’s airports will be underwater by 2080?
And, who will need airliners when the world’s economy has been destroyed by CAGW?
Just be afraid – fear is the only persuasion the socialists have.

Michael darby

MarkW: “The combustion efficiency of most aircraft gas turbine engines at sea level takeoff conditions is almost 100%. It decreases nonlinearly to 98% at altitude cruise conditions. ”
..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_engine#Energy_efficiency_relating_to_aircraft_jet_engines

James Bull

The Goons had this sorted back in the 1950’s all you do is call up the “air ministry” pay the money and they will have the air you need to fly your aeroplane in place when you need to fly,,,,,,SIMPLES

What you do have to be careful of is not running out of fuel as you might get stuck and not be able to land!!!
James Bull

tty

“Greater wing area is more lift.”
It’s not that simple. Wings create lift by deflecting the airstream downwards. Flaps (slats) increase lift by increasing this deflection. However this has a price in increased induced drag, so acceleration will be slower. Stronger engines and/or longer runways will be needed.

Gerald Cooper

Would making runways white help at all?

Michael darby

tty: “Wings create lift by deflecting the airstream downwards.”
..
..
WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG.
..
Wings create lift by making the air flow over the top of the wing have a higher velocity than the airflow under the wing. The faster airflow reduces the air pressure on the top of the wing creating lift.

>>
WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG
<<
Not exactly. Wings create lift in two ways. One is through differential pressure and the other is angle-of-attack. Angle-of-attack is how kites fly. Basically the wing creates lift by differential airflow. But as you fly slower, to maintain altitude you must increase angle-of-attack. There’s a limit to how slow you can go, because a too high an angle-of-attack will cause the wing to stall. Flaps do several things: they increase wing area, they increase wing camber, and they increase drag. All these allow you to fly slower.
The wing root usually has a higher angle-of-attack than the rest of the wing. As you approach stall speed, the root stalls first. This creates eddies that travel along the fuselage and shake the elevators. This warns the pilot that he is about to stall. Some airplanes can’t use this feature, so they add an electrical stick shaker that senses stall and warns the pilot.
Jim

>>
There is a reason you don’t see wings attached to the body of the airplane at a 45 degree angle.
<<
That’s exactly how a kite flies. For a given camber, the faster the airspeed, the greater the pressure difference. I’m not sure about your “decrease pressure” statement WRT angle-of-attack. Are you an aeronautical engineer?
Jim

General Atomics in San Diego makes a catapult for carriers using electro magnetic acceleration (like a rail gun). I expect that to be scaled up within 10-20 years to help launch jumbo jets at US airpots, so there’s no need to worry about difficulty taking off.

Jeff Alberts

Actually it’s “over” or “out”. Using the two together, as my drill sgt used to say, means “talk to me, shut up.”

MarkW

I though “over” meant “your turn to talk” while “out” meant, “conversation over”.

Joe Shaw

Over: I’m done talking
Out: I’m done listening

“Over” means: “I’m done talking and I expect a reply,” while “Out” means: “I’m done talking and I don’t expect a reply.” “Over and Out” is nonsense.
Jim (retired Naval aviator)

Climate change may hinder aircraft takeoffs in years ahead: study

Climate Change may Eric. Not will. End of story.

As an aside, Climate Change may cause your head to explode. Who really knows?

On the upside, Climate Change may cause all the potato cod on the Great Barrier Reef to turn into gold.

Who new planes are effected by heat and weight!!!
This is so new it must be worth an award /s

Steve

Or another research grant.

Bryan A

Perhaps they should stop the practice of overbooking flights

Bryan A

Then beating up passengers to take their seats

MarkW

The problem is the number of passengers who don’t show up for their flight, and then demand refunds.

Rhee

So now these so-called *climate scientists* are suddenly become aeronautical engineering experts. Sure, sure, we’ll buy that bridge you’re selling too…

Alan Robertson

Couldn’t help but notice, that nowhere in their doomsday speculations did they include the words; “And there won’t be any engineers”!

Every pilot, and anyone who has taken flying lessons, knows that taking off in warmer summer is harder than the heavier winter air.

Mike McMillan

Okay, I’ve looked through the comments and haven’t found anyone coming up with the real reason warmer air is detrimental to takeoff performance. Nothing to do with less lift or bigger flaps or redesigning airplanes.
The real reason:
WARMER AIR AND/OR HIGHER ALTITUDES REDUCE AIR DENSITY.
THAT REDUCES ENGINE POWER.
It’s that simple. Less power – lower performance. Clueless “researchers” who apparently haven’t discovered that fact aren’t worth listening to.

tty

It also reduces lift since the weight of the air deflected by the wing at a given speed decreases.

rocketscientist

@tty,
you seem to be fixated on only one aspect of lift, momentum lift. There are two forces acting on a “wing” moving through the air, momentum lift and dynamic lift. Momentum lift works much as you say, like a vane deflecting the flow. This is how most house fans work. This is sometimes referred to as “flat plate lift”. It works for house fans because mostly they are turning rather slowly (compared to aircraft flight) but are very inefficient when they speed up. That is mostly why you hear a lot of “noise” from the fan. The noise is “stalled” air on the back side of the turning blades and circulation losses from the tips.
The other component is dynamic lift, that caused by making the air on the “lifting” side move faster by making it travel farther. This is often referred to as “Bernoulli” lift. Slats and flaps mostly effect this sort of lift by making the wing appear more curved on the upper surface.
For landings these devices allow the wing to perform at much lower speeds so the plane doesn’t’ need to land “hot”. These devices are not used much during take-offs.
So much for the lecture on lift.
The primary reason planes don’t like hot temperatures at air ports is due to loss of thrust generated by the engines needed for take-off due to the higher temperatures, as has been stated in previous comments. In order to get moving fast enough for take-off the runway needs to be longer. The planes could take off on the existing runways, but there may not enough length IF the take-off needs to be aborted and the plane stopped. The FAA has good rules for good reasons.
BTW, I am an aerospace engineer (MIT) who designs aircraft and rockets for NASA and the military.

Cyrus P. "Cy" Stell, PE, CEM, CBCP

Any of these “Chicken Little” studies are merely variations on the same theme… imagine anything, doesn’t matter if it is supported by empirical evidence or even by the maths behind the theory, that sounds like it MIGHT could be brought about by the Monster-Under-The-Bed I mean Climate Change, and run some computer games I mean simulations I mean models, that show how bad it could be when this imaginary effect happens, and there you have it, It’s Worse Than We Thought™!!! I don’t understand why every academic sweats bullets over their next paper and getting it published, obviously it’s as easy as falling off a log.

Knew…

Steve

I would expect there will be more problems with global cooling than warming (I’m talking a long time in the future). Just saying.

Alan McIntire

Even longer term in the future, on the order of a billion years, we’ll have more trouble with global warming. The sun’s luminosity will have increased enough to destroy our oceans, and ultimately all metazoan life on earth.

Auto

Alan,
Noted, and broadly agreed, although I have a feeling I have read that it is likely to be ‘five billion years’ from now . . . . .
A distinction without a difference, though, as I, and I suspect you, too, will not be here in even a significant fraction of a billion years.
Whoever is quoting better – it doesn’t matter – at all.
Have a great weekend.
Auto

BallBounces

We have to eliminate air travel to save the planet anyway, so this sounds like win-win to me.

Non Nomen

We have to eliminate mankind. Only this can save the world. /sarc

Crispin in Waterloo

So it will be impossible for aircraft to get airborne in New York because they already can’t get off the ground in Dubai.
Right.

My first thought too …

Kalifornia Kook

There was a day recently when some Canadair regional jets were grounded in AZ. Their top operating temperature was 118, and temps at the airport hit 120. This didn’t affect Boeing and Airbus planes.
In general, warmer air does affect takeoff roll and climb, as the air is less dense – both in warm weather, and in humid – rainy weather. Something every pilot has to take into account. My old club lost our insurance when our most experienced pilot forgot to take the temperature – especially at a high altitude airport (Mexico City) into account. Put our biggest aircraft into the woods.
The rest of us learned a valuable lesson.

Jay Turberville

Yes. But as my business partner and pilot informed me, the density altitude in Phoenix at 118F is more advantageous for takeoff and landing than is the density altitude on a warm day in Denver, CO. The recent issue in Phoenix was mostly about published and tested specifications, not actual airplane capabilities.
One simple way to compensate is to have longer runways. Also, some Boeing jets offer enhanced take-off and landing packages.(slightly more powerful engines and larger flaps I think) that can be ordered for planes that must operate out of short runways, high altitudes, and other disadvantaged situations.

Walter Sobchak

Bigger engines. With a big enough engine, a barn door can fly.

Mike McMillan

Neither Boeing nor Airbus is going to offer a larger flap package on one of their aircraft. That would require a complete recertification of the design.
If anything, they would offer flat rated engines, one with higher thrust that is limited to the lower thrust the plane was certified with. Such engines can maintain the certified thrust to hotter temperatures and higher takeoff and climb altitudes.

Ray in SC

Mike,
Boeing currently produces ten models of the 737 and several military variants. What makes you think they wouldn’t make an eleventh with different slat/flap configuration?
Also, i agree that changing the wing design would require recertification but it is not clearl to me why changing the engines would not require the same. Can you elaborate?

ripshin

Crispin…not really related, but I kinda feel like congratulations are in order that you, apparently, are back home…in Waterloo, and not “really” elsewhere… 🙂
rip

Crispin in Waterloo

ripshin
Correctamundo. I survived another go-round. 84k air miles this year already. I am really in Waterloo where the conversation is: “I wonder when May will end and summer begin.”

Alan Robertson

I’ve had some moments of fun, speculating about the nature of Crispin’s business travels.
I hope some day, it becomes possible for him to tell us.
He’s posted here at times from such exotic places as Ulaanbaatar and Beijing, on the same day!
And the stories he could tell…
Think about what he’s seen and heard during his far- flung adventures and his insights gained from diverse human contact, the likes of which, only the smallest, tiniest fraction of mankind has ever experienced.
Crispin, you could even take a page from our friend Willis’s book and serialize stories here, while writing your book!
Think how much fun it would be, (when time comes to tell us,) to run a quick contest here at WUWT… kinda like a Carmen San Diego thing, only “Why in the world, is Crispin in Kuala Lumpur?”

Annie

Have you ever seen Dubai airport in action around lunchtime in high summer. There’s plenty going on!

stevekeohane

Larger wing area to weight ratio…

Non Nomen

Plus longer runways. Density altitude is a well and long known law of mother nature. Nothing new at all.

Mandobob

You are correct. I guess “reporters” who know little if any thing about basic physical properties of gasses and temperature suddenly came across this and….. !OMG were all gona die!

Mike McMillan
Whether or not people on this blog actually understand how an aeroplane flies makes no difference to the idiotic nature of the study in question.

There will be Boeing engineers rolling on the floor clutching their sided in mirth at this latest nonsense.
On the other hand they might feel quite insulted that this moron imagine they can’t design a plane to cope with high temperatures, I mean they’re only looking at scram jets to put a plane into low orbit making a New York to London flight one hour long.
But I bet they’re still howling with laughter, shaking their heads with tears rolling down their faces.

Mike McMillan

They’re probably laughing at many of the comments here by people guessing how airplanes fly.

Mike McMillan
Whether or not people on this blog actually understand how an aeroplane flies makes no difference to the idiotic nature of the study in question.
(Sorry, posted under the wrong comment earlier.)

Goldrider

Have you noticed a sudden spate of really off-the-wall and over the top ALARMIST!! articles two weeks after we bowed out of Paris? Methinks they’re on the ropes, which is making them scream louder and dumber to practically no one.
Reply: This is only Part 1~ctm

My thoughts exactly.

That’s why they moved the meteorological weather stations from far away to near airport runways, so pilots can calculate load factors before take-off or landing. The weather stations then show the micro-climate of the runway. This data is then processed to prove global warming.

Patrick MJD

And unadjusted load calculations, based on 1930’s average body weight, lead to an air crash in the 80’s or 90’s, I don’t recall which. But it was the figures fed in to that formula that spat out inadequate figures for fuel and thrust. Thankfully that “issue” has been addressed.

Geez, technically it is correct, a warmer temp does result in less lift so temperature is a calculation in plane load.
However its almost like saying, when you drive in the rain you should slow down, it might rain more, and people dont normally slow down and there are more accidents with more people being killed, so Global Warming will kill more people in car accidents.
I could also argue that Global Warming with potentially warmer temps, there would be less ice in the winter which causes accidents and less people will be killed..
Its fear mongering at its finest..

Leo Smith

Intercontinental jumbos always wait for the evening to take off from Johannesburg, when its 40 degrees and you are already 5000 feet up.
A fully loaded jumbo waddles into the air using the whole runway….

Yeah and on the flight to NY you had to land on a Cape Verde island in the Atlantic to refuel because you couldn’t take off with a fuel tank from Jo’burg. From NY it’s a non stop flight.

J B Williamson

Indeed we do. I seem to recall the limiting factor was the maximum tyre speed. So its not all lift and drag. (747-400)

Auto

Leo,
It is also about arrival times.
Folks round Heathrow get no jet landing until [Not sure, but something like] 0530 local time.
Joburg is ~11 hours away. So take-off needs to be by noon – hot air problem, but gets in before nighttime closure – or after about 1900 Local time, to get a straight-in slot at LHR. No-one wants to stooge about over southern England for an hour until LHR and LGW are allowed to open for business . . . .
Auto
I have seen a dozen airliners in sight when walking to the station at about 0615 Local time – more than once.

Crispin in Waterloo

Leo S
The airport in JHB was built on some of the lowest land around in order to get the thickest air available. All the long hauls are indeed after sunset or thereabouts because of the lift issue. It is 5500 ft above sea level. It is typically in the 20’s C by evening. For ‘time to roll’ it is the longest I have experienced. One runway is 14,000 ft long and they use most of it.
It is one of only three airports that serve all 6 continents with non-stop flights.

MarkW

If it rains more, people will get more used to driving in the rain, resulting in fewer accidents while it’s raining.

Jeff Alberts

Doesn’t work in Seattle.

MarkW

Nothing works in Seattle.

Richard M

Of course, they ignore the times airports are currently shut down due to cold and/or ice which should be reduced in a warming climate. How about fog? It often forms when warm air moves over cold ground. If we have less cold ground there should be less fog.

Ed I

I guess that is way better than spending hours lined up to get deiced. I learned to fly where the runway temperature was over a 130+F the entire time but we never canceled a day’s flying and we always got off the ground within the normal take off run up range distance. We didn’t reduce fuel or load. The “chicken littles” of the world, especially those who claim to be scientists, are getting very, very tedious. A year ago I would laugh and see them as sadly humorous but their recent reactions to Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement indicate to me that they truly are dumber than posts.

Ed I July 14, 2017 at 8:28 am
I guess that is way better than spending hours lined up to get deiced. I learned to fly where the runway temperature was over a 130+F the entire time but we never canceled a day’s flying and we always got off the ground within the normal take off run up range distance. We didn’t reduce fuel or load. The “chicken littles” of the world, especially those who claim to be scientists, are getting very, very tedious.

What were you flying, 737, 757 and 767 wouldn’t make that.
The max temperature shown in the plane manual that I learned on was 40ºC, but you were flying at 55ºC.

Ben Gunn

You think planes have it hard now, wait until they replace fuel tanks with batteries and wings with solar panels. Everyone knows solar powered jets will work better at midday.

Kalifornia Kook

“solar powered jets”! I love it. They should have used them on Solar Impulse!

[blockquote] If severe heat waves related to climate change become more common in the coming years…..[/blockquote]
..and “if” I win the Lottery, I can buy that 500SL Mercedes coupe.
Folks have already identified the “endangerment finding” as a foundation block for a lot of regulatory nonsense and thus something worth challenging.
Similarly a worthwhile red team-blue team exercise would be a data driven analysis of RCP 8.5 which seems to be underpinning of so many absurd studies.

Sorry, should have rechecked formatting for the site ;(

Preyno

This is the imagined extreme heat resulting from AGW is it? Or is there new information from naturally evolving climate change?

Bruce Cobb

Oh noes! How will climate jamboree participants get to their destinations?

Non Nomen

Camels.

The Deplorable Vlad the Impaler

I was thinking penguins; won’t they have to move their conferences to the ONLY habitable land, i.e., Antarctica?

D. J. Hawkins

So, right now every single flight out of every airport is maxed out on fuel, cargo, and passengers? Somehow, I’m thinking…no.

MarkW

The airlines do everything they can to make sure each plane is maxed out in regard to passengers.

Matt G

Firstly, they need to explain how adjusting data sets not showing warming affect anything in reality, never-mind aircraft.
Secondly, then need to demonstrate that climate has any affect on aircraft over recent decades.
Thirdly, it is a model with no confirmation it agreed to any timeline.
Fourthly, the regional variations in climate between destinations are far bigger than any future change.
This is just the continued repetitive pattern of trying to do any research and trying to link it to climate. They won’t go into any of these points because it would mean doing some science without assumptions.

Marlo Lewis

Even if this study is correct, it claims an RCP8.5 warming would require weight restrictions “ranging from 0.5 to 4% of total aircraft payload and fuel capacity by mid- to late century.” That’s not a whole lot, especially at the low end of the range, and it’s with today’s technology. Do these savants really believe they can forecast aircraft performance and technology in mid- to late century?

The study assumed temps 3 degrees (Celsius ) greater. Not likely, and any estimates that assume CO2 levels much about our current level are just stupid – they assume no advances in cars (gee, you’d think they would know about electrics by now, especially since Tesla has a 600,000 waiting list for their lower priced model) , no advances in power technology (ignorant of the dozen countries, and companies moving very close to commercialization of molten salt nuclear reactors, which will be popular irrespective of any carbon issues.). These estimates display a great deal of ignorance, and not just about climate.

“projections of daily temperatures from the CMIP5 model suite under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios to calculate required hourly weight restriction”
These are hypothetical situations created with bad statistics.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3000932
And flawed IPCC carbon budgets
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2997420

Matt G

Projections of daily temperatures from the CMIP5 model are around the Scenario C any way.

Curious George

This is a science of projections. Closely related to astral projections and witchcraft.

Non Nomen

Witchcraft is considered to have a scientific background and more precise than such “models”

Curious George

Indeed. It is a macroscopic manifestation of “quantum entanglement”.

While Alana Wise at Columbia University sees a falling sky, even birds see thermal soaring.

Apologies. The falling sky credits belong to authors Ethan D. Coffel, Terence R. Thompson, Radley M. Horton. Alana Wise gets a special mention for calibrating Reuters against bird brains.

Dodgy Geezer

This is predicting a 0.5% – 4% effect on airliners 100 YEARS FROM NOW!
100 years ago there WERE no airliners. Who knows what there will be in 100 years time? I can only be sure of one thing – we won’t be flying current Airbuses using current engines out of airports which are the same size and place as they are today….

Curious George

Think Biggles.

Dodgy Geezer

The Americans like to claim that the first airliner was the Curtiss JN 4, used for passenger service in 1915 – but that could only carry one passenger. The Russians had a 14-passenger Sikorsky Ilya Muromet designed and flying in 1914, but it never went into commercial service due to WW1.
The first aircraft you would recognise as airliners were probably the converted bombers which were used on the first scheduled air routes in Europe – aircraft like the Handley Page Type W. They made their debut in 1919…

Mike McMillan

The only current aircraft still flying 100 years from now will be DC-3s and B-52s.

Rhee

I certainly won’t be there to see it, but I’d hope there is matter-energy-transportation a century from now. Of course, I’m still waiting for that Jetson’s style flying car that folds into a briefcase…

mwhite

“https://realclimatescience.com/2015/12/the-frequency-and-extent-of-us-heatwaves-has-plummeted/”
Lookss like US flights will be OK???

mwhite
Non Nomen

Go by rail, bus or boat. Great fun and relaxing.

Bryan A

Go by Faster than Light travel FTL
FTL when you absolutely positively have to be there before you leave

Goldrider

You won’t need to go anywhere. You will live 100% in your “smart” phone.

Jay Turberville

How about automated, driverless cars and/or mini-vans for relatively short trips in the 100-300 mile range. Door to door service, no TSA, relatively large amounts of baggage allowed and probably multi-passenger discounts.

Bryan A July 14, 2017 at 10:10 am
Go by Faster than Light travel FTL
FTL when you absolutely positively have to be there before you leave

Used to do that on Concord.

MarkW

Jay, might as well just use your own car.

genel

Just thought I’d point out that the problem is with the chart that at least some airlines use. Namely it only goes to 120f. https://www.takeofflanding.com/ So airlines cancel flights if runway temp is above that. If, and that is a pretty big if, temps above 120 become common they will need to pay someone to create new charts.

noaaprogrammer

Here we have computer model projections based on other computer model projects based on … ad naseum. Our simulated future will be so dystopic that no computer model will be able to project how it all will end.

Non Nomen

Deep Thought knew the answer. 42.

johnrmcd

Turtles ,,, turtles all the way down ,,,

rbabcock

As a certified, bone fide aircraft pilot (from the United States of America government nonetheless!) I will say there is a modicum of truth to their hypothesis. There is such a thing as density altitude. If your aircraft takes a certain amount of runway to lift off and you increase the air temperature, the air becomes less dense and 1. the engine puts out a little less power and 2. the wings develop a little less lift.
The powers that be express this as if you are taking off the same runway only at a higher altitude, hence density altitude. So the higher the air temperature, the higher the apparent altitude of the airport and the longer the roll and higher the speed needed to rotate.
Most jets have the spare power to handle this. However there are times when the margins get so slim they shut down operations (Phoenix for example) above a certain temperature. But if the airport is high to start with, it can come into play at lower temps. Non turbocharged piston singles have more issues with this, especially the older planes with the smaller engines.
When it is hot, you really need to look at the charts in your POH to make sure the runway is long enough to get off the ground and you can climb fast enough to miss that big tower, especially if you are heavily loaded.

commieBob

Tell me if I’ve got this right:
Aircraft fly at high altitudes to take advantage of the less dense atmosphere. link In that light, shouldn’t higher temperatures, with their resultant decrease in density, be an advantage for commercial traffic?

Bryan A

But by the time they reach that altitude they are moving at 600mph. Still can’t go 0 – 600 over the course of an airport runway (yet)
Perhaps if they had the same set-up that is utilized on aircraft carriers they could reach 600mph within a mile

MarkW

The problem is this, is the runway long enough for your engines to get you up to take off speed before you run out of asphalt?
Less dense air means you have less thrust and you need more speed in order to take off.

Bryan A

An Aircraft Carrier style catapult system could get them to speed in far shorter distances and would enhance the flight experience

Retired_Engineer_Jim

Sorry, but, no, that isn’t right. Aircraft turbine engine thrust is related to the difference between inlet and exhaust temperature. Maximum exhaust temperature is determined by maximum turbine* inlet temperature, which is determined by the materials used for the turbine blades. So, going to higher altitudes provides for a lower engine inlet temperature, thereby increasing the difference between engine inlet temperature and engine exhaust temperature, thereby increasing the thrust. However, as this effect is really useful, one also has to deal with air density lowering with altitude. So, there is a tradeoff between the coldest engine inlet temperature and the air density. Of course, there are other considerations as well.
* Note that the engine is called a gas turbine engine, and the section of the engine aft of the burner cans is called the turbine. A bit confusing. Ultimately, one is trying to maximize T(engine exhaust) – T(engine inlet).
This has very little to do with takeoff performance, as the plane’s altitude is determined by the concrete, not be the thermodynamics. However, the hotter the runway temperature, the lower the engine thrust (for a given throttle setting) and the lower the lift (for a given airspeed). Can always go back to the good old days of water injection.

tty

Aircraft at high altitude fly fast. Thin air is then an advantage because of lower drag. And engine efficiency improves with lower temperature in the intake air (typicaly c. -55 C at the tropopause).
Even so the speed range between high speed stall and low speed stall can be fairly small at maximum certified altitude. Violent maneuvers are definitely not recommended.

rbabcock

The article was about aircraft takeoffs where you want enough lift to get you off the ground before you run out of runway.
You are correct you go faster the higher you go due to less drag. But it isn’t all that simple. Piston engines lose power the higher they go unless they have a turbocharger (and they also have their limits), so you are playing improvements to airspeed vs power available to drive you through the air, so depending on your aircraft you have optimal altitudes and speeds you want to hit to get best economy or fastest cruise, etc. All tradeoffs.
Jets have ample power and want to get high as fast as they can to take advantage of thin air and less drag. They also have issues with compressibility which is why they use mach numbers, have to worry about transonic induced drag (why they have swept wings) and the stall speeds are much higher at altitude. All in all a very fascinating subject.

Mohatdebos

Simple test, ask airlines that fly non-stop from New York to the Middle East whether they have different load factors depending on the direction they are headed — higher load factors going from New York to the Middle East than in the opposite direction.

David Chappell

Load factor is the percentage of actual payload to max permitted. What you are thinking of is fuel load and that is a question of strength and dirction of winds at altitude. West to east goes with the flow (generally) whereas east to west goes against the flow. The easy way to find the answer is to look at the airline timetable, and compare the inbound and outbound flight times.

MarkW

If there are times at which flights have to be restricted, that will reduce the efficiency of the airlines, which will make travel more expensive.
It’s a lot more complicated than just declaring, don’t try to take off at that time.

Hugs

A negative feedback! Hurrah!

Taphonomic

This must mean that planes can’t currently fly into and out of Las Vegas in the summer when temperatures reach over 115 degrees F. Someone tell all of the casinos.

Leitwolf

Ironically aircraft may be the sole biggest contributor to global warming. That is by the effect of their contrails, not their CO2 emissions. As already shown, clouds (and science claims even more so the higher in the atmosphere they are, though I can not confirm that) have a massive heating effect on climate.
https://www.scribd.com/document/348761444/Its-the-Ocean-Stupid

nn

Water vapor is present in greater quantity and distribution, and high density water populations (e.g. condensation trails) have an observable, reproducible effect.

I noticed they refer to RCP4.5 (could be) and RCP8.5 (bogus) in the abstract, but they dont make clear the difference in outcomes between the two cases. Rcp8.5 is bogus, therefore if the load factor change is mostly due to temperatures derived from RCP8.5 inputs, the work and the paper are a wasted effort.

Big Al

Planes of the future will just be designed with large wings for more lift, or larger engines with more thrust. What the airlines could do now is limit the passenger load, if they really needed to fly at that time.

nn

Fly at night, recharge in sunlight. Or follow the prevailing winds.

ossqss

What a load of crap. None of the 757 or 737 flights were canceled in Phoenix when it was 120 f out. Only smaller less efficient commuter jet planes were affected, and only a few of those. Solution even if this did happen? Longer runway and a better plane!
Wake me up when we have consistent 120 registering in Chicago, New York, or even Atlanta. We also need to start fining authors of garbage like this for excessive embellishment BS!

Well said.

ossqss July 14, 2017 at 9:59 am
What a load of crap. None of the 757 or 737 flights were canceled in Phoenix when it was 120 f out. Only smaller less efficient commuter jet planes were affected, and only a few of those. Solution even if this did happen? Longer runway and a better plane!

Looks like they came rather close.
http://www.b737.org.uk/images/environmentalenvelope.gif

Hanrahan

I just read a pilots’ forum where they discussed this and there was no consensus on why an absolute upper limit. Bambadier, a Canadian company, have a 118 dF limit, Boeing 126 and Airbus 127.
If it were an air density thing then it would be a matter of a chart such as you show. If it is performance of laminates then Airbus has more of them than anyone else.
The conclusion drawn was simply that the airline didn’t pay for the extended operating temperature range chart or the manufacturer didn’t publish the data.
What value is a “scientific” paper where the reason for the limit wasn’t explored?

ossqss

Solution, don’t fly in a desert environment if you don’t have proper equipment in the summertime? Find a good weather forecaster to boot, and adjust accordingly.
Just sayin, lets have a look at some actual numbers and qualify/quantify a few commuter heat cancellations from the FAA as an example….. Now consider the hype in the paper.
https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/by_the_numbers/

David Middleton

I always love it when they use the words “may”, “could’, “possible”. Means they don’t know but let’s scare the masses anyway because the press will report it as fact.

Goldrider

The media relies almost 100% for “fright” stories, in addition to the disgusting or salacious or tear-jerking, for the all-important clicks that feed the ad revenue. Anyone who thinks this is “information” is uninformed.

Ro

Your suggestions of how to deal with the problem are ridiculous and take away any credibility you may have on climate temp sensitivity to CO2. Don’t be a Contard.

Steve Case

If severe heat waves related to climate change become more common in the coming years, researchers at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory have concluded that 10 percent to 30 percent of fully loaded planes may have to shed payload during the hottest parts of the day or delay flight until cooler hours.
The hottest parts of the day, Maximum temperatures, have been on the decline – at least in the United States for nearly 100 years

The Los Angeles Times pulled this out of the study:
“The study said average global temperatures have increased nearly 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit since about 1980 . .”
And then added:
” . . average global temperatures . . will rise by as much as 5.4 degrees by 2100.”
Note – ‘will rise,’ not even, ‘are predicted to rise.’
So – it’s a fact. Let’s go camp out on our new iceberg continent – down under.

Don K

I looked up the highest temps in the 150 years or so of data from Central Park. The all time hottest day was 106F/41.1C July 9, 1936 — 80 years ago. Second place — 104F/40C in 1918, 1977 and 2011, That would seem to support the well known thesis that CO2 induced warming will primarily affect winter and nighttime temperatures and won’t affect Summer highs much at all. Which then leads to the question of whether these folks have even the slightest notion of what they are talking about.

In response to a recent LAT’s article about our heat wave, I look up and found that for the summer months of June – Aug in Los Angeles, there were still 24 record high temps standing from before 1900.
This would have been long before any possible urban heat island effect in the downtown part of this metropolitan area. To actually tie, or break, any of those records today, the target should be raised 4-6 degrees F.

Kenw

The sturdiest brick house built on a pile of crap is still going to collapse. And until it does, the stench is awful…..

Mark - Helsinki

the CMIP5 model suite under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios, aka extrapolating the 80s and 90s warming to 2100?

What’s with steadily rising mean as well as extreme temperatures hindering takeoffs? It’s only the extreme highs that do that. And how many have noticed what years the record highs for each of the 50 states have been set in? Mostly 1936 or before.

Chris

“But lets assume the authors of the study are right. There is an obvious solution; if aircraft are likely to be adversely affected by midday heat, avoid scheduling takeoffs for midday.”
it’s clear Eric Worrall has never run a business before. Aircraft fly 12-14 hours per day. So let’s just cut out 3 hours per day, or 20-25% of their flying time, and have them sit on the ground, incurring gate fees and/or parking fees.

David Chappell

It’s called route planning. You build your operating schedules around known problems. Back in the 1980s in the days when 747s didn’t have the legs they have now, London to Asia flights had to stage through a Middle East airport to refuel. During the day it was known to be hotter in the ME so flights were sceduled for refuelling stops during the night when it was a bit cooler. So Eric Worrall is exactly right and you, Chris, who does not know how airlines operate.

MarkW

That’s a re-fueling stop for a single route.
Now try shutting down major airports in the middle of the day for all flights.

Andrew

Not all flights Mark. Just the extreme long haul flights. Short haul have no trouble 12:00-15:00.

David Chappell

Mark W, do you actually understand the concept of scheduling and route planning? Yes, my example was a single case for a single route but as an illustration of how airlines in their planning deal with known problems. The case of hot/hot and high has been known since the early days of aviation, though mistakes were made, and airlines, believe it or not, PLAN to get around this, and other restrictions, without having to shut down an airport and lose more money than usual.

once fossil fuels are outlawed, electric engines are going to limit aircraft a whole lot more than a couple of degrees of warming.

Catcracking

Even the data from warmest folks shows that there are a lot less heat waves than in the past by a large margin. Look at the data.
http://jeremyshiers.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/high-low-temps-download1-2014.png
Also data shows that the summer highs in the US are lower than the past:comment image?w=720
This data shows that the warming is predominately in the Arctic where there is little plane traffic and the temperature never reaches the highs they talk about. Warming in the latitudes where people live is actually modest. Of course on can cherrypick isolated locations to fool the public, but the overall data does not jive with their claims.
http://fs5.directupload.net/images/170304/2x7bkgok.jpg
Finally as a taxpayer I am tired of seeing and paying for these fake claims, wasting $$$, Trump needs to defund all these useless projects and use the money to build a wall.

The morons at Colombia University think they can get away with half truths and lies to support their “global warming agenda” Density altitude, the effect that temperature has on air is dealt with on a daily basis by pilots. Long before passengers embark calculations are done to ensure aircraft can take off successfully. Even if the temperatures forecast by the IPCC and their dodgy computer models were to come true – their 1.5 degrees C would make little difference to aircraft safety. As someone who regularly flies out of Dubai where temperatures are often above 40C modern jets have no problems. The Colombia morons further demonstrate their ignorance by referring to “fully loaded planes.” In the real world there is no such thing. Planes today are never, “fully loaded” – instead they have always been loaded with fuel, passengers and freight according to the distance to be travelled, the fuel requirements for this and the density altitude of the the airfield in question. To try to link all this to notional and unproven “global warming” is merely the dodgy work of charlatans. No wonder more and more reasonable people question both the media for promoting such garbage and so called “scientists” for trying to promote their own political agenda.

Andrew

Good point. The plane flying out of Phoenix AZ probably isn’t fuelled for a 17hr flight. It’s probably fuelled for 3hr or less.
The only planes flying full range out of ultra hot places would be the Emirates / Qatar / Etihad type carriers out of MENA and a single Air India flight that set a world record out of DEL.
This study is pure FakeNews.

Billy

If global warming is a real catastrophic threat, why is commercial aviation allowed at all?
It should have been banned decades ago. It is a large avoidable source of emissions.

Henning Nielsen

Ca. 1,5% of human co2 emissions.