Guest post by David Middleton
What’s the best way to deal with a bully? Punch him (or her) in the nose. It appears that President Trump just punched the G-7 climate bully in the nose…
Isolating Trump
Merkel’s G-20 Climate Alliance Is Crumbling
The German chancellor had been hoping to isolate Donald Trump on climate issues at the upcoming G-20 summit in Hamburg. But Merkel’s hoped-for alliance is crumbling, underscoring Germany’s relative political weakness globally. Many countries are wary of angering the United States.
By Christiane Hoffmann, Peter Müller and Gerald Traufetter
June 09, 2017 06:49 PM
German Chancellor Angela Merkel had actually thought that Canada’s young, charismatic prime minister, Justin Trudeau, could be counted among her reliable partners. Particularly when it came to climate policy. Just two weeks ago, at the G-7 summit in Sicily, he had thrown his support behind Germany. When Merkel took a confrontational approach to U.S. President Donald Trump, Trudeau was at her side.
But by Tuesday evening, things had changed. At 8 p.m., Merkel called Trudeau to talk about how to proceed following Trump’s announced withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement. To her surprise, the Canadian prime minister was no longer on the attack. He had switched to appeasement instead.
What would be wrong with simply striking all mentions of the Paris Agreement from the planned G-20 statement on climate, Trudeau asked. He suggested simply limiting the statement to energy issues, something that Trump would likely support as well. Trudeau had apparently changed his approach to Trump and seemed concerned about further provoking his powerful neighbor to the south.
The telephone call made it clear to Merkel that her strategy for the G-20 summit in early July might fail. The chancellor had intended to clearly isolate the United States. at the Hamburg meeting, hoping that 19 G-20 countries would underline their commitment to the Paris Agreement and make Trump a bogeyman of world history. A score of 19:1.
[…]
From the G-6 to the G-3
But even before Trump announced the American withdrawal from the Paris Agreement that evening in the White House Rose Garden, it had become clear in Berlin that they would miss their first target. Led by the Italian G-7 presidency, the plan had been for a joint reaction to Trump’s withdrawal, an affirmation from the remaining six leading industrial nations: We remain loyal to Paris.
Suddenly, though, Britain and Japan no longer wanted to be part of it. British Prime Minister Theresa May didn’t want to damage relations with Trump, since she would need him in the event of a hard Brexit, the Chancellery surmised last week. And given the tensions with North Korea, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe couldn’t put his country’s alliance with the U.S. at risk. In other words: Climate policy is great, but when it comes to national interests, it is secondary.
[…]
It is a defeat for Merkel, and not just when it comes to climate policy. It is also a setback for her claim to leadership on the global stage. Germany’s geopolitical influence, the incident shows, remains limited. When it comes to power, security and interests, Germany is a not a global player, but a mid-sized power that isn’t even able to keep Europe together.
[…]
Hope Fades
In parallel, though, Merkel’s advisers are working on an “Action Plan on Climate, Energy and Growth,” a document that had initially been planned for the 19 in Merkel’s original 19:1 calculation. But hope is fading that enough heads of state and government can be found to sign the document.
[…]
There are widespread concerns that a whole list of countries might pull back out of fear of the consequences for their relations with Trump – something they aren’t willing to risk over the question as to how hot it might be on the planet in 100 years. Indeed, the Chancellery has begun recalibrating its view of success, now content to settle for a situation in which no other country joins the U.S. in withdrawing from the Paris Agreement.
[…]
Ultimately, the end result could be that the issue is largely ignored. The G-20 isn’t a climate conference, officials are saying, and the conflicts might be better suited for the next global climate summit, scheduled to take place in Bonn at the end of the year.
The German population, of course, would almost certainly prefer to see the chancellor stand up to Trump. If Merkel, who has staked a significant portion of her political legacy on climate change, were to exclude climate from the G-20 summit, she could face accusations of caving in to the U.S. president.
[…]
Had Hillary Clinton won the Election last year, the G-20 would have been unanimous in their endorsement of the Paris climate agreement. Now, they can only count on three of the G-7 nations in their efforts to isolate the United States with a 19:1 G-20 climate proclamation.
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Climate change was and is politics. Most of the support is by people who want to create their favored economic system, and find CAGW a useful tool.
I think Trump is taking the right tactic for now of strictly limiting his objections to Paris to economic issues, which are fairly simple. The US and the former EU would be responsible for most of the costs of the program, which shows few benefits for either.
Any effort to challenge the narrative on global warming should be in overturning the EPA CO2 as pollution rule. As that rule can be reversed administratively, just putting out a rationale of why the former rule was wrong and reversing the rule along with the CPP.
I agree. There is a large, fully-indoctrinated warmist demographic block that are not all there upstairs anymore, and any political move has to take that into account. Never underestimate what an opponent might do, especially in moments of desperation.
“Climate change” was and is MONEY. Politics was and is MONEY. Climate change as used in politics was and is the transfer of MONEY, trillions of dollars worth of it. Some say Climate Change was and is Global Governance also. Maybe so, but Global Governance was and is MONEY.
All governance is money. It’s the systematic method of extracting wealth from a designated populace.
Too many mistake governance for leadership. Leadership is about protecting your people and guiding them. Governance is basically slavery. Not chains and shackles slavery, but the more insidious economic slavery.
If our nation was a corporation, our government would be our administrative overhead (HR, IT, HSE, etc).
Put a man in chains and he will do all he can to break free.
Give a man a bank loan and he will rush out to buy more chain.
This is how global governance and socialism will be done through a politically corrupt UN. The UN-FCCC in Cancun 2019. They built on it later in Durban.
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/abdication.pdf
Absolutely wrong…
It is a fundamental part of government policy in France, Germany, UK and many other leading economies to support climate science, Paris and renewable energy.
Macron issued his ‘put the planet first’ announcement and opened the door for US climate scientists… Merkel has just been in Mexico speaking out against walls…
China and the EU and China and California made agreements/common statements on climate…
Trump and the US are isolated on the climate issue and the attitude of the rest of the world is hardening towards more action and shutting out the US…
Griff, how exactly is “politics” and “government policy” different? All the verbiage one can produce does not make “renewable energy” practical yet, if ever.
Griff said, “Trump and the US are isolated on the climate issue and the attitude of the rest of the world is hardening towards more action and shutting out the US…”
Wonderful! Once the price of energy goes through the roof in other countries, their industries will be tripping over themselves trying to move to the U.S. and take advantage of our cheap, plentiful coal, oil and natural gas.
Make Americal Great Again!
What jmarshs said!
I can think of no greater virture than to be ‘isolated’ from a bunch of greenie proto-fascists.
isolated? heh- in the same way a community is isolated from the convicts at the penitentiary – that’s a good thing.
Well, Griff, this is going to be very interesting.
We’ll come back to revisit this in about a year to see how many countries continue to even pretend to play “Paris Climate” stuff.
I think that isolating yourself or not depends on how things are phrased.
How about if President Trump goes on TV and stresses our multi-generational friendships with all the countries in Europe, Then he can continue by saying, “One test of a true friend is its willingness to point out where the other may be going wrong.” Following that, he should lay out – in the course of a half hour – many of the facts which show that CAGW both is not real and is a harmful political strategy.
He can pay homage to the political realities in Germany (for example), where to continue in office, the Greens need to be stroked, even if what they advocate is stupid and destructive. He can offer moral support to any friend which chooses to exhibit the courage to fight the blight which is eco-terrorism.
And, speaking of terrorism, he can link in the open border policies in Europe which threaten to destroy their cultures as well.
Trudeau Jr. has learned what Jean Chretien knew and what Theresa May didn’t. Don’t pick fights.
Naw, he’s just a compliant toadie for TPTB. He follows orders well.
Trudeau Jr. has learned what Jean Chretien knew
=============
French Canadian heritage. One forward gear, 7 reverse.
Oh no, there are some remarkably stubborn Quebecois.
Tom Mulcair, stubborn to a fault. Stephane Dion refused to play along to get along. Rene Levesque was a diehard separatist. Full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes; there’s lots of that in Quebec politics.
I disliked that gargoyle Chretien with a passion and I dislike Trudocchio even more.
Adios Canada
Call me when you find a country where you can like and respect the politicians, I’ll join you there.
Agreed, TH – that and the rhetorical question of “…imagine how much better today would be if it were only ONE degree less than it is”…after all, that is all the IPCC wants from the accord (and then everything is fixed)
I don’t see the problem with calling a spade a spade…CAGW is an injurious, compulsory, punitive form of foreign aid funneled through Brussels.
and through a lot of pockets, with some missing at each exit
Harry
Thanks
No /Sarc.
Indeed – NOT /Sarc.
Much appreciated – and plus lots and lots.
Auto
+1. No, scrub that. +1000. Good one, HH.
Merkel is a puzzling disaster for the West. Nearly every policy she pushes hurts European culture and damages democratic civil society.
…. and worse still, she has a Ph.D. in Physics so, unlike some duped politicians, she must know that by all the rules of real science (null hypothesis, falsifiable hypotheses, empirical observations, error bars, etc etc) that there is no dangerous anthropogenic global warming or climate change.
Hopefully we’ll move on from the elitist groupthink that the plebs need to be lied to (although I doubt we will).
it was an East German degree, Nein ?
“nicht war”, not “nein”.
those in politics know it’s a means to an end. Nothing more. A lot of the sheeple have been suckered into this hype and politicians are wise enough to take advantage rather than trying to educate.
philincalifornia
Now there’s your answer. Merkel must know climate change is bullshit if she has a physics Phd. I have a single Scottish ‘H’ grade in English and I know AGW is bullshit.
But Merkle hides a murky past. I understand many of her mentors were, lets say, sympathetic of Adolf. According to some ‘conspiracy’ circles, she has been well supported and politically manoeuvred to be where she is. And according to those same conspiracy circles, it’s not without good reason. Having lost WW2, and seen a remarkable, self generated, regeneration, the cause of European domination is still fresh.
Today Europe, tomorrow America!
Not that I believe in conspiracies, well, not all of them.
Could be worse, could be a degree from Evergreen State College and Woke Center.
Greg: “Nicht wahr”.
Sorry, guys, coming from a highly technical team at Boeing, I can tell you that the Physics PhDs there are very divided on the question of AGW. I only give them any allowance because I assume they have not looked at the underlying data, or that they are influenced by family.
AGW is NOT about science, but more about feelings and religion. I have good friends that moved away from the obvious fallacies of AGW in order to stay in step with sons daughters with degrees from Berkeley, UC Santa Barbara, and others. These kids ALL have STEM degrees. Regardless, their professors are hard over Globally Warming believers. And they’ve converted intelligent kids, who have converted intelligent moms and dads.
Propaganda starts in the schools. The tide may be turning, but the professors are still there. We missed the boat big time when we stopped watching who was teaching our children.
Her PhD degree is in physical chemistry.
“Merkel originally studied physics at the University of Leipzig from 1973 to 1978 before completing her doctoral thesis on the reactions of hydrocarbons in 1986.” Source: Physics World news Sept 2013.
I also have a Herr Doctor certificate from Germany, awarded only because my Harvard Law degree reads Juris Doctor in Latin ( which Germany accepts automatically). The German system is silly. What US would be masters degrees are doctorates. The Ph.D equivalent in Germany is the double honorarium ‘Doktor Professor’ since ‘Doktor’s’ are a dime a dozen. That Merkel could not get Doktor in five years, got it 8 years later just says the fix was in, because anybody whomis anybody is a Herr/Frau Doktor. Even me.
Ristvan: Chuckle. Us lawyers got together once, overwhelmed by all the surrounding PhD’s calling each other “Doctor” all the time ( when I think the term initially was used by our profession), so for an entire week we referred to each other as “Doctor Soandso”, particularly when around the chemists and physicists. It was a blast to see the expressions on their faces.
She was borne and raised a Communist. But, she seems to be willfully blind as to what a statist agenda creates, although she should have seen it in East Germany. On the other hand, socialism is very good for the elite like Ms. Merkel. E.g. Venezuela where Chavez’s sister has become a billionaire while the people starve. Also, Bernie Sanders who made over $1 million last year, putting him in the top 1% and Chelsea Clinton who graduated from college and immediately got a $600,000 a year job in the Dinosaur media. Of course, YOUR child would never be offered that much. Minimum wage jobs are for the little people.
Merkel is great, but she is out of her depth in global politics, just as much as Wilhelm II and Tirpitz were. She should stick to Europe, where her influence is positive.
Merkel’s influence in Europe has been a disaster. In order to save German (and French) banks from bankruptcy, she arranged the destruction of Greece inflicting poverty on to millions of its citizens.
She opened the doors of Europe to floods of immigrants, many of whom are not genuine refugees and some of whom are Islamic terrorists.
A better idea of how Merkel’s policies, and those that follow them, are helping to destroy Europe can be gained from reading Adults in the Room by Yanis Faroudakis.
It was the Greek politicians who arranged the destruction of Greece.
Merkel’s only crime was insisting that the loans be paid back.
It seems most of the nations are followers not leaders. I suspect the “190-1” meme is going to be taking a hit soon as well.
I can’t believe that our president isn’t willing to give away 10 or 20 billion dollars a year to third world countries, with no accountability, to those that hate us. And then there are the polar bears, walruses, and now the penguins. OMG. The IPCC members will want to give their mind altering drugs and go for the hard drugs.
Who said that? Godfrey Bloom, former UKIP, former MEP, back in 2013.
you racist, you left out BLM’s
you know reparations are a funny animal….and that what all of it is about
People want to get paid for something that happened that no one alive is responsible for….
…and yet, they don’t realize…if any one thing in the past had been different
They would not even be alive right now to complain about it
Since Johnson started “the war on poverty”, the Democrats (and the Republicans let them) have spent some $20 trillion to raise the poor, mostly black, out of poverty. “We” have paid any “reparations” that we owe in full. It’s not my fault that the only thing we have to show for it is the destruction of the black family, Not to mention Flint, Detroit, Atlanta, Oakland, Richmond and now Chicago, Did you watch Baltimore burn on the news? Baltimore, including the police department has been run mostly by Democrats since before the Civil War. Obama had given Baltimore $1.83 billion dollars “walking around” money out of the “stimulus”. Where did that money go? Where are the safe neighborhoods? Where are the outstanding schools? The mayor was on TV and said very proudly about the riot, for the people who wanted to destroy, we gave them a place to destroy. The poorest black neighborhood in Baltimore. What had those poor people done to deserve to be thrown under the bus? “Black Lives Matter” ? Horse puckey, not to Democrats.
(Recent news story that the students in six Baltimore schools were nearly illiterate in spite of spending the second highest per capita in these United States http://tinyurl.com/mgpenvs .)
“Actual justice holds you responsible for the actions you take. ‘Social Justice’ holds you responsible for actions taken, without your knowledge or consent, by people you do not know and have never met. It’s guilt by association, and a perversion of true justice. No liberal democracy worthy of the name should countenance advocates of such a poisonous idea getting anywhere near elected office.” – Sam Duncan
Nice quote….who’s Sam Duncan?
Sam Duncan is some guy at a website.
PiperPaul, beyond that, many of the actions that you are being held responsible never happened in the first place.
Ric–we do give away billions of dollars to third world governments every year–usually in the form of “military aid”
“Military aid” can actually be used to combat actual enemies of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness (AKA estate). Gorebal Warming aid can only used to combat life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness (AKA estate).
They are similar forms of aid as are the services of veterinarians and taxidermists similar.
The “Beau of Quebec” is untrustworthy and Merkel an alleged former member of the Stasi. I think they are trying to double-cross each other.
“I think they are trying to double-cross each other”
Fingers crossed, NN.
It seems, according to the people of the mmgw fraud that Sammy Wilson, of the D.U.P, believes that the climate has never changed
isn’t changing, and never will change.
Yes that’s right, he is a climate change denier.
One source said he doesn’t believe there is a climate.
That’s right he is a climate denier.
Oh dear. There are going to be a lot of sourpusses at COP23 in Bonn come Novemeber. The tears, the finger-pointing, the wailing and gnashing of teeth will be epic. And delicious.
Why hold COP23 at all? Everyone could just mail their accomplishment forms and Green Climate Fund checks..
Now where would be the fun in that? It is a circus after all.
I think it’s way past time to hold these suckers’ feet to the fire. The Administration should order all US federal employees and contractors “attending” all future COP meetings that they must do so solely by video conferencing. They should be told that no travel, food or housing reimbursement will be paid, and anyone attending in person must pay their own expenses and use vacation / leave for the days missed.
That would force these teat sucking trough slurpers to at least pretend to care about their own carbon dioxide emissions.
California will continue sending a HUGE contingent, larger than many countries, and the state will continue paying for it. These people are so virtuous they have halos.
Bonn needs the money.
Cobb: Bonn-Cologne has a measly little airport, I don’t know if the thousands of planet-saving delegates wil be happty with the place, it is hardly big enough for di Caprio’s private jet. It is worse than we thought.
So the boy (the US) who paid for the “ball” is going to take it and go home, ruining the game.
Good.
No, the “Boy” was paying for all the drinks at the party, and now the Boy has decided to go home early and the rest of the mob aren’t happy.
Germany’s geopolitical influence, the incident shows, remains limited.
And for the forseeable future that will not change. It’s attitude to the Bundeswehr or Parliamentary army, is one of total disdain. The fourth reich has conquered most of Europe using its economic might instead of the Wehrmacht.
But Merkel has come to realise that somehow German public opinion has to be shifted to accept a larger role for its military. The rift between Washington and Berlin isn’t getting any narrower which puts a question mark over Germany’s dependence on the NATO umbrella.
I understand the thrifty Frau spends about 1% on defence. If Donald got the message through that should double. They might even get guns instead of broomsticks
Soldiers in the Panzergrenadierbataillon 371 took part in the exercises last September in Norway.
The troops were missing 31 per cent of their MG3 general-purpose machine guns, 41 per cent of their P8 handguns, and more than three-quarters of their Lucie night-vision devices.
Soldiers resorted to painting broomsticks black and attaching them to Boxer armoured vehicles to simulate gun barrels.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/11420627/German-army-used-broomsticks-instead-of-guns-during-training.html
fretslider; FYI; Norway has a very good relation to Germany, and we trust our German friends and allies, as we trust our US friends and allies.
Sounds like the state of US military in the years prior to WWII.
If only someone with some media savvy was on the side of the scientists trying to put a stop to the fraud!
Trump and the entire US delegation to Bonn for the Climate Conference should participate by videoconference, and put an overlay on their video showing their carbon savings by not flying there.
+10!
Oh there’s no end of fun to be had with those jokers but given the extremity of the insanity all parody is pretty much assured to run foul of Poe’s law.
Require all government workers who wish to attend to pay their own way – every last cent. And use their vacation days (or equivalent) to cover it.
And hit them with a catbon tax!
Whoa! In COP Copenhagen 2009 there was not enough parking space at Copenhagen airport for all the private jets, some had to go to Oslo, 600 km to the north, and the limo market was emptied of cars in Scandinavia.
j.pickens +10 here too!
The proverbial nick in the armor. Appeasing the elite wealth redistributors is going out of fashion. This should snowball as the people come to realize what “Climate Change” stands for and how it really affects them.
I get cold sweats when I think about what would have happened if Clinton had won. The effort to get rid of Trump is completely understandable but contemptible.
Look around at who is attacking Trump over “Russia.” They are our real enemy.
“Look around at who is attacking Trump over “Russia.” They are our real enemy.”
Yes, they are attacking Trump for supposedly colluding with Russia to undermine the American election process, but as you say, it is really the American Left and the American MSM who are really undermining the American election process by spreading all these lies and half-truths about Trump and the Russians, and Trump and Comey, in an effort to undermine the President of the United States.
The American Left and the American MSM are dangerous to the American way of life. Their collective psychosis and delusions are putting our society and the way we govern ourselves in danger. The truth is not in them. Their lies need to be challenged at every turn.
Stefan Molyneux has a video describing how the Left has been importing millions of immigrants legally and illegally for decades, all of whom will happily vote for more socialist handouts, i.e. Democrats, while comparatively few of them are contributing anything worthwhile in return. The Right has not been doing anything to counter this maneuver, since they don’t operate by stooping to such depths, and the insidious anti-American deluge has gotten quite far along by now…
I’m not buying that. How would it anger the US if other countries re-affirmed their commitments to the Paris Accord? Why would we care? If Germany wants to hobble their economy in pursuit of a meaningless objective, that’s their right. It’s called national sovereignty, something President Trump is asserting. So if they bring it up and the upcoming G-whatever summit, all the US representatives have to say is “Thanks, but no thanks” and move on to the next agenda item.
What I think is more likely is other countries really didn’t want to sign the accord, but lacked the political courage to refuse, and the US action has now given them cover. They don’t want to come out and say that, so they pretend to be afraid of offending us.
If it works, I’m happy to let them say that.
Exactly what I was thinking, Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7. Trump had the gonads and the inertia to shove shepherdess Merkel’s pen gate open and now all the sheep are scattering through it bleating in relief.
There can only be a strictly finite amount of enthusiasm for crippling your economy whilst taking a wrecking ball to your power generating infrastructure and your actual immediate environment. Simultaneously with feeding large chunks of your GDP into the palaces of third world despots.
Alan, you state:
“…….How would it anger the US if other countries re-affirmed their commitments to the Paris Accord? Why would we care? If Germany wants to hobble their economy in pursuit of a meaningless objective, that’s their right. It’s called national sovereignty, something President Trump is asserting…….”.
That argument is easy to make Alan, and I can understand it some extent. However, there is also something called a global economy these days, which I understand to mean that the economies of the world are all somewhat intertwined or interconnected, especially in the G-20.
Economically speaking, I believe I have heard it said once that if one nation sneezes, everybody else gets a cold. That statement probably applies to the G-20 nations as much as (or maybe more than) any others. If and when the economies of Germany and Europe start going downhill from high climate alarmist and renewable energy related costs and regulations, that economic weakness could find its way across the Atlantic to the U.S. That obviously would not be a good thing.
Trying to convince the Europeans of the error in their ways regarding climate change and renewable energy is probably much easier said than done. I get the impression that they are more leftist than we are in the U.S. One can only hope that President Trump win the day on these subjects eventually, but there are few guarantees in life except death and taxes.
“Why would we care?”
I’m with you. They can spend their money any way they want to and that suits me just fine.
Other than I would lodge a protest if they were going to spend money on bird-killing windmills. I think those should be banned forever, or until they can build one that doesn’t slaughter the wildlife. At least I won’t be paying for any bird killing.
Looking at the issue from another perspective I don’t think Trump or most American’s would lose any sleep over European (or any) nations hamstringing themselves with the burden of “Green” policies. The way I see it though, Trump and many Americans would take serious issue with the G-20 collective trying to bully the United States into following their “rules” (i.e. the Paris Agreement). Americans would see this as an external unellected bureaucracy trying to dictate American policy and surmounting our sovereignty. That is exactly how the right wing media would spin the story, and most if not all of Trump’s base would react extremely poorly to situation. Trump himself would probably do or say something irrational and threatening and cause even more of a disaster to unfold.
Politics is a complicated chess match with hundreds of players. If you are not thinking 3-5 moves ahead then you are behind.
If European politicians hadn’t already gone along with others calling him every rude name under the sun then that approach might seem more credible.
Having said that, I still don’t get what Merkel is supposed to be thinking will be a general solution to her ‘problem’. Is she proposing to find a magical pot of mystery money to pay all the $Hundreds of Billions that the US won’t pay? The US was never going to do that anyway. Nor was Germany or the EU. All that has really changed is that Trump has formally said so, and called their bluff.
“The German population, of course, would almost certainly prefer to see the chancellor stand up to Trump. If Merkel, who has staked a significant portion of her political legacy on climate change, were to exclude climate from the G-20 summit, she could face accusations of caving in to the U.S. president.”
This is a big lie. The published Chancellor opinion in Germany would probably like to see this. But otherwise, the German population does not care many about climate changes. Merkel is still chewing on their mistakes with the nuclear industry, which led to the German state being condemned to the energy groups by the Federal Court for a payment of more than 5 billion euros. Until September and the Bundestag election is still some time. German exports are weakening in the last two months, and quickly the “Volkszorn” is turning because of the unstable mentality of the German “Volksseele”. Interesting times.
Otherwise, the article is full of my opinion. Germany is a dwarf against the US, and even Putin spoke of days ago about the limited sovereignty of Germany and Merkel (as also of all other European nations). There must be some Rome at any time. And that is not to be condemned in this case.
To those who said Merkel is the new leader of the free world, here is a heaping helping of crow – /\( )/\
The biggest worry the worried folk have is the very high likelihood that left alone, the worst that they could get isn’t more than 1C including natural variation.
A) fossil fuel production will peak in three or four decades and CO2 will flatten and we will be firmly on the downslope long before we get to 2100.
B) prices will climb and petrochemicals and fertilizer manufacture, essential end users, will take a growing proportion.
C) The atom Will be the go-to energy source rising in the coming decades.
D) There will be a massive drop of NGO funding and interference in the affairs of government and commerce when the truth is out. The puny temperature rise with no intervention or cost will mark the end of trust in this ugliness.
E) massive cutbacks in funding for universities forcing closure of the plethora of information-free faculties and courses. Women’s issues, gender issues, diversity and sustainability issues, the left’s own social psychology and all other politicized humanities and let mental hospitals provide safe places and teary T group therapy. Women and Qwerty genders with adequate qualifications are free to take engineering, science, biology (non lefty end of world stuff – only the scientific facts),etc. We may have to create a higher tier of science, languages and classics and let the severely wounded institutions do what they want to do Harvard is not too big to fail.
That President Trump was the only guy who could save the world is indeed a teaching moment.
Hey leave the Cluster Bs alone!
CHeck out the hermit of Loreto story. Some ascetic, many years ago, predicted Trump’s rise.
Maybe the G 7 should take heed of the IEA assessment of the progress to date of clean technology to replace fossil fuels. Measures up a a HUGE failure by OBAMA.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/09/energy-technology-is-not-advancing-fast-enough-to-meet-climate-goals.html
“Paris Agreement has more problems than just Trump: Clean technology isn’t advancing fast enough”
“Just 3 out of 26 energy technology categories the International Energy Agency tracks are on pace to help meet global climate goals.
The IEA has a fairly straightforward solution: implement policies that will encourage investment in these technologies and work across borders to develop them.
The technologies needed to meet the Paris Agreement’s climate goals are not developing quickly enough, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency.
Nearly every country in the world has committed to take action under the Paris Agreement to slow global warming. But only 3 out of 26 technology categories tracked by the IEA are on pace to help do that, the agency concluded in this year’s Energy Technology Perspectives report.
The IEA, which advises countries on energy strategy, has a fairly straightforward — if not easy — solution: implement policies that will encourage investment in these technologies and work across borders to develop them.”
Unfortunately the IEA thinks spending more $$$ will solve the problem but they are wrong.
And the three technologies that the IEA says are “on track” are Energy Storage, Solar & Wind (the IEA categorizes them the same), and Electric Vehicles. Huh? ON TRACK?
I agree 100% with your comment, I am just happy to note that they are at least indicating we are not currently on a path to energy sustainability w/o fossil fuels to satisfy the Paris accords.
Trump should have stressed this in his speech and I did not hear this issue during any TV discussions which were awful even on FOX..
As an Engineer with over 50 years in the energy sector, I am embarrassed that the societies and others are not bring this concern up.
That’s a big leap from where governor Brown and Obama are putting their faith and risking the welfare of many, of course the elites will be OK..
Merkel can do her part for climate change by shutting down Germany’s coal plants – and watch as their elderly, sick, and poor suffer from the cold this winter because Germany is also afraid of nuclear energy.
I have not seen evidence that a voting German majority is afraid of nuclear energy. There is a private view, for or against or don’t care, that is moderated from time to time by political statements saying “we reject it” or “we favour it”. Many voters then drift along with the tide.
The lack of reality in these energy discussions is astounding. There is an easy modelling exercise for any country at any time to optimise its mix, to get an optimum mix that few can argue against.
Yet Governments everywhere seem to be avoiding the obvious, to try to finesse this or that enerdy source. A popular game just now is for a country (Australia just did this with the Finkel report) to put forward a mix that optimises political preferences (wrong way to go) with scant attention to the optimum economic result. Another national game is to create a mix that produces the appearance of economic progress while virtue signalling to the “coal must go” activist crowd with hidden messages.
As I said, there is a proper, easy calculation to provide the optimum mix. All Governments need to do in advance is to clearly state those energy sources that are not allowed into the future mix, then hand it all, with an absolute minimum of regulation or impost, to competitive private enterprise – and then shut up.
Geoff
A potentially larger mistake than failing to recognize that CO2 has no significant effect on climate is failing to realize what actually does. The still-rising water vapor is rising about three times as fast as expected from water temperature increase alone (feedback).
The warmer temperature is welcome but the added WV increases the risk of precipitation caused flooding. IMO all rainwater retaining systems (dams, dikes, etc.) should be upgraded from design for 100 yr floods to design for 10,000 yr floods.
Highways and major roads are already designed for the 100 year events. Bridges over highways are designed for the 1000+ event, depending on the size of the bridge/river or the risks involved. Dams I believe are designed for the 1000+ year event depending on the size of the dam, and flood modelled for the MPF (maximum possible flood) for mitigation, warning and escape route strategies for those who live below.
Increased frequency of floods will make zero difference to most structures. Perhaps an increased risk of scour or sedimentation only.
It’s the magnitude that matters, not the frequency. Complacency will probably continue until increasingly disastrous precipitation related flooding makes the news.
DM – Thanks for the info although I don’t see a good reason to ignore the NASA/RSS data. Different sources give different assessments (no surprise). We must always be on guard for confirmation bias. The specific humidity graph extends back to before satellites which raises questions as to how it was determined and applicability to global. Also it shows a slight increase in SH at 1000 mb which is where most of the WV comes from. The NASA/RSS stuff being just over the oceans IMO is indicative of over land also (where else would 3X higher than feedback come from?). I don’t see why spacial variation should matter when you are looking at global.
In any event, IMO TPW bears watching (and I will) and considering relevant factors including cloud cover (it should be increasing) and whether or not the increased reporting of precipitation related flooding is significantly more than expected from normal variation. Precipitation related flooding has been disastrous. Any increase would be bad.
https://youtu.be/Ji9qSuQapFY
http://www.climate4you.com/images/TotalColumnWaterVapourDifferentAltitudesObservationsSince1983.gif
http://www.climate4you.com/images/NOAA%20ESRL%20AtmospericRelativeHumidity%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1948%20With37monthRunningAverage.gif
http://www.climate4you.com/images/NOAA%20ESRL%20AtmospericSpecificHumidity%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1948%20With37monthRunningAverage.gif
Note the 2009 end date on first two plots. I could not find what area of the planet the other graphs applied to or the source of the data. My comments are based on NASA/RSS numerical anomaly global data reported at http://data.remss.com/vapor/monthly_1deg/tpw_v07r01_198801_201704.time_series.txt graphed in Fig. 3 at http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com
“Variations in the total column water vapour in the atmosphere since July 1983 according to The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). Last data: June 2008. Last figure update: 14 June 2009.”
http://www.climate4you.com/images/TotalColumnWaterVapourDifferentAltitudesObservationsSince1983.gif
http://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/index.html
The graphs and data can be accessed here:
http://www.climate4you.com/GreenhouseGasses.htm#Atmospheric water vapor
Chen & Liu (2016) claim to have identified an increase in water vapor.
0.61±0.33%decade⁻¹ is not a statistically meaningful trend and it is entirely the result of adjustments to the data. The original data exhibited no trend:
Vonder Haar et al., 2012 found no trend:
The REMSS water vapor anomaly measurements are only over the oceans and their trend is anything but robust and “is by no means spatially uniform”…
http://images.remss.com/figures/climate/vapor_trend_map_1988_2012.png
http://www.remss.com/research/climate
Dan,
I doubt that there is data to design for 10,000 year events, and at some point it is not economic to do so. Most codes for structures do not require 10,000 year events either.
Fortunately there are engineers who know how to figure all that stuff out, just like they did for the current codes. The 8% rise in TPW since 1960 and continuing rise at 1.5% per decade (as of April 2017) needs to be attended to.
Fuel poverty deaths are directly related to those who have promoted one of the largest most overblown scams in history . When Germany goes to the polls we will how Germans react to their country
sliding from foolish climate policy overreaction .
On a positive note it’s funny how leaks are drying up now that the self confessed leaker Comey
has come out of the closet . There is hope yet .
Germans -not so good at voting: see Little Corporal.
Better to keep it as a mirage like it was intended to begin with and not be fooled by Obama fluff legacy facades. They actually believed him? Get real
They can play these climate chess board games in between Greek financial crises and next time Trump is going to say no to IMF waste moves.
Something is wrong. I keep entering a comment, it shows up, but when I cliick “Post Comment” it disappears. Please check.
With NAFTA up for renegotiations, or better still cancellation, the part time drama teacher Trudeau had no choice. Instead he is busy destroying the Canadian economy with CO2 taxes.
We need to get the truth out there! I say to the Climate Alarmists, stop trying to micro-manage the entire world! Free people have done more for the world than every socialist intellect has ever done to enable people to create freedom, prosperity, security and happiness! We will solve our problems. Trust that Free People WILL figure out what needs to be done. At the end of the day, we are all in this together.
“something they aren’t willing to risk over the question as to how hot it might be on the planet in 100 years.” Correction: “something they aren’t willing to risk over the question as to how cold it might be on the planet in 100 years.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/12/us-opts-out-g7-pledge-paris-climate-accord-irreversible#img-1
WTF? a table made of grass. Well that is sure to “save the planet”.
This is supposed to be a serious, top level, international leaders meeting ?
Geography is everything. It matters. Canada borders the US. (Don’t pi$$ off someone you do a lot of trade with) Japan adjacent to N Korea (needs US protection) and Britain separate from mainland Europe (in more ways than physical).
Germany – surrounded by people they’ve invaded (except Switzerland), and a very bad job they did of it as well.
Trump’s reinforcement has just arrived
No it is not Donald’s older brother, it is Melania’s dad.
I thought it was John Goodman! LOL!
Maybe they want to wall off the AGW skeptics / fact checkers like the other wall builders in that region.