Two Competing Narratives on Carbon Dioxide

Is carbon dioxide our friend or our foe?

Guest essay by Iain Aitken

Here is a dossier of key facts about carbon dioxide (and its role in global warming):

· It is an incombustible, colourless, odourless, tasteless and non-toxic gas

· It is a plant nutrient and, as the ‘fuel’ of photosynthesis and the creation of oxygen, it is absolutely essential to the existence of life on Earth

· Its fertilisation effect has meant that, thanks to our anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions increasing concentrations in the atmosphere, crop yields have improved dramatically to date and will continue to improve in the future

· It is a weak greenhouse gas

· Global warming precedes, and then causes, increases in carbon dioxide emissions

· Most global warming experienced since 1950 can be attributed to natural climate variability, rather than enhanced greenhouse gas warming from anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore the rate of global warming experienced since 1950 has many precedents and is not remotely alarming

Carbon dioxide concentrations today are amongst the lowest found in the entire history of the Earth

· Only 0.04% of our atmosphere is carbon dioxide, which makes it what scientists call a ‘trace gas’; it requires extremely sensitive equipment even to detect it

· There is a very poor correlation between carbon dioxide concentrations and atmospheric temperatures so some thing (or things) other than carbon dioxide must be the key driver (or drivers) of global warming

· Carbon dioxide exerts a diminishing warming effect as its concentrations increase and is today almost entirely exhausted as a greenhouse gas

· At low enough concentrations carbon dioxide could cause catastrophic climate change and the extinction of all life on Earth

· Those who would assert that global warming is man-made and dangerous are denying the facts that global warming has been slowing down at precisely the same time that anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions have been rising and that no unequivocal causal relationship has ever been established between those emissions and observed global warming.

The world-renowned theoretical physicist Freeman Dyson has said, ‘The possibly harmful climatic effects of carbon dioxide have been greatly exaggerated… the benefits clearly outweigh the possible damage’. Dr William Happer, Professor of Physics at Princeton University, has said, ‘No chemical compound in the atmosphere has a worse reputation than carbon dioxide, thanks to the single-minded demonization of this natural and essential atmospheric gas… The incredible list of supposed horrors that increasing carbon dioxide will bring the world is pure belief disguised as science…. We’re really in a carbon dioxide famine now… increased carbon dioxide will be good for mankind.’

So the evidence and science is unequivocal: not only are our carbon dioxide emissions innocuous, they could actually be hugely beneficial for humanity.

There now follows another dossier of key alternative facts about carbon dioxide (and its role in global warming):

· It is a highly toxic atmospheric gas that is a dangerous pollutant of our precious planet

· As a result of the warming associated with our carbon dioxide emissions crop yields will fall across the world causing widespread famines

· It is a powerful greenhouse gas, and, as such, is a major contributor to the current global warming crisis

· Increases in carbon dioxide emissions precede, and then cause, global warming

· Most global warming experienced since 1950 can be attributed to anthropogenic activity, in particular anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. The rate of global warming experienced since 1950 is alarming and unprecedented

· Carbon dioxide concentrations today are at the highest level ever recorded

· As a result of mankind’s carbon dioxide emissions, largely from burning fossil fuels, carbon dioxide concentrations in our atmosphere have already reached a monumental 400ppm

· There is an extraordinarily close correlation between carbon dioxide concentrations and atmospheric temperatures

· Carbon dioxide exerts an increasing warming effect as its concentrations increase

· At high enough concentrations carbon dioxide could cause catastrophic climate change and the extinction of all life on Earth

· Those who would deny that global warming is man-made and dangerous are denying the fact that man-made carbon dioxide emissions are soaring and that such emissions cause enhanced greenhouse gas warming – and the equally unequivocal fact that ten of the hottest years on record have fallen in this century.

Dr Carmen Boening, Climate Scientist at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, has said, ‘Reaching the 400ppm mark should be a reminder for us that carbon dioxide levels have been shooting up at an alarming rate in the recent past due to human activity.’ The environmental journalist Michael Specter has said, ‘Humanity has nearly suffocated the globe with carbon dioxide.’

So the evidence and science is unequivocal: not only are our carbon dioxide emissions dangerous, they could actually cause the extinction of all life on Earth.

Combining the conclusions from the original facts and the alternative facts, it is clear that carbon dioxide is unequivocally innocuous and dangerous and unequivocally beneficial and catastrophic.

In a court of law I would have no trouble whatsoever in defending both sets of ‘facts’ and am absolutely confident that I would leave the court a free man in either case. By using selective quotes, being selective with the evidence, being selective with the science, being selective with the timeframes, overlaying all those with emotion, rhetoric and value judgements, and then deploying a dollop of dissimulation and a soupcon of sophistry, I have turned a scientifically objective description of carbon dioxide’s role in global warming into political propaganda – both dossiers of key facts about carbon dioxide, although ‘true’, are extremely ‘dodgy dossiers’. My point is that very different narratives can be spun about the role of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere without having to resort to lies – the people who spin these narratives are relying on the belief that the vast majority of the public, politicians and journalists will not realize that they are being spun a story – and even if they did they would probably struggle to understand the scientific differences between the competing stories and so be inclined to ‘just believe the authorities’ who spin the ‘carbon dioxide is our foe’ story.

Not only might the average member of the public find it extremely difficult to determine the ‘truth’ about carbon dioxide (and its role in global warming) when faced with the above presentations of apparently complex and contradictory alternative facts, even highly educated, highly intelligent (and even highly scientifically literate) people are likely to feel confused. We should form our views logically and rationally based on all the facts – but faced with the above sets of apparently impossible to reconcile facts about carbon dioxide this is very, very hard. Consequently many will perhaps set aside the facts and simply fall back on how they feel about carbon dioxide. And since the second story, that ‘carbon dioxide is our foe’, is perhaps the only story most will have been exposed to (especially in Europe, and quintessentially in Britain) it is far more likely to be the one felt to be true. If you associate carbon dioxide with dangerous warming of the planet then you may feel bad about it; if you associate it with the benign greening of the planet then you may feel good about it. How people feel about carbon dioxide can prove far more successful in shaping public opinion than any number of complicated facts, something very well understood by those who want to ‘sell’ the ‘man-made climate change crisis’ idea, who have established a narrative for carbon dioxide and its role in global warming by flooding the media with emotionally powerful negative images, e.g. polar bears on ice floes floating out to sea, dying coral reefs, flooded cities (preferably flooded American cities). This substitution (triumph?) of political narrative and emotion for scientific objectivity and rationality is a fundamental problem that permeates the entire climate change debate.

So is carbon dioxide our friend or our foe? As set out above, in some ways it is (or could be) the one and in some ways it is (or could be) the other. The vast majority of the public not only do not understand these scientific differences, they positively don’t want to have to understand these scientific differences. As Richard Lindzen has said, ‘Most arguments about global warming boil down to science versus authority. For much of the public authority will generally win since they do not wish to deal with the science.’ Instead they will form their view on the climate change debate almost exclusively on how they feel about it based primarily on the narrative spun in the media (a narrative that is utterly dominated by the propaganda of the climate change alarmists). As Hitler wrote in Mein Kampf, ‘The most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly and with unflagging attention. It must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over.’ This is why endlessly repeated simplistic soundbites like ‘climate change is man-made and dangerous’ and ‘the science is settled’ and ‘97% of scientists agree’ have been so powerful. Is there any real truth in these statements? It doesn’t matter – just keep repeating them. In a 140 characters or fewer Tweeting, knee-jerk reaction, internet-driven world of shortening attention spans where ‘TLDR’ (Too Long; Didn’t Read’) is a typical reaction to any complex issue few will take the very considerable time and very considerable trouble to root out, investigate and understand the scientific arguments of climate change sceptics that climate change is probably predominantly driven by natural ocean-atmosphere oscillations, natural solar variations (irradiation and cosmic ray flux), natural cloud cover variations and the (natural) Milankovitch Effect when all they have to unthinkingly believe is that ‘climate change is man-made and dangerous – and that’s a fact’.

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May 14, 2017 11:31 pm

Climate change is on balance good! A Limerick and explanation.
The Epoch named Anthropocene:
Man’s fire appeared on the scene.
CO2, it is good
makes it green, grows more food.
To call it THE threat, that’s obscene. https://lenbilen.com/2016/11/22/climate-change-is-on-balance-good-a-limerick-and-explanation/

Keith R Parker
Reply to  lenbilen
May 15, 2017 1:44 pm

I wish you’d noted anthropogenic OCO is only ~ 3.5% of atmospheric OCO. That makes it less than 0.0012 % of atmospheric OCO. How the additive amount of OCO since the mid ‘1800s has lead to a a 1 degree C increase in global temperature has always flummoxed me.
Having spent my career in estimation I’m further bowled over that one could expect to accurately and precisely model highly variable OCO vs highly variable temp. Huh? Of course the answer: over the long run they’re highly correlated. So wha?

Reply to  Keith R Parker
May 15, 2017 5:09 pm

There is an alternate explanation for te are still recovering from the little ice age.

May 14, 2017 11:43 pm

The best quote in a while:
“Believing carbon dioxide is the planet’s climate control knob is pretty close to believing in magic”
– Dr. Richard Lindzen

Sheri
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
May 15, 2017 5:26 am

This whole matter is believing in “magic”—from there being a thermostat for the earth’s average temperature anomaly (which is interpreted as local temperature control, incorrectly, of course) to pine tree rings being equivalent in numeric weight and value to a digital thermometer: to wind turbines saving the planet: to turning off a light or two will save the planet, and so forth. It’s all magical thought—every bit of it. Humans are no better as discerning magical thought than they were in the ancient past. We want to believe in magic and we create ways to do it that sound “science-like” to justify it.
Magical thoughts come from feelings, which is how global warming and it’s solutions are sold. And “sold” they are, like the vacuum cleaner that more people prefer or the perfect fake teeth for the perfect fake smile. Advertising is a turn-off to rational people (I can’t list how many products I don’t buy because the seller thinks I’m an idiot) but it works on the “feelers” out there. It’s what it is designed to do. Many sales pitches feature CGI and physically impossible feats—the selling of magic. Then when global warming comes along claiming to have caused a hurricane or the extinction of a species of bug, the marketing is already in place and the “buyers” are primed to believe. Thus, “science” is sold like any commodity, using any method available, lies and deception included.

Joel Snider
Reply to  Sheri
May 15, 2017 12:24 pm

It’s a Pardoner’s Tax. Lifted directly from old-school-styled sin and absolution through penance (because you have to give them an ‘out’) – ‘your sins will be forgiven if you just send me…’

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Sheri
May 15, 2017 7:12 pm

The diocese all-inclusive package.

Julie near Chicago
Reply to  Sheri
May 15, 2017 8:08 pm

Sheri!

“Advertising is a turn-off to rational people (I can’t list how many products I don’t buy because the seller thinks I’m an idiot)….”

I love it! I’m with you. Thanks for the morale-booster … and the big grin. ;>)

Ian Macdonald
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
May 15, 2017 5:34 am

Not really, there is a body of evidence that ceremonial magic works, at least in changing the consciousness of the magician. There is no such evidence for alarmist predictions of the effects of CO2.

Reply to  Ian Macdonald
May 15, 2017 6:12 am

Ah, but the ceeremonial magic of climate science affects the minds of those who engage in it.

Sheri
Reply to  Ian Macdonald
May 15, 2017 9:04 am

Magic by definition is supernatural, not at all subject to science. Changing the consciousness of the magician is subjective by nature, again, outside the realm of science.
It’s interesting that you argue magic exists but alarmist predictions are fiction. It seems to lend evidence to my claim that feelings are what sells.

Peter
May 14, 2017 11:44 pm

How dangerous is CO2?
Go into a small crowded room. Measure the CO2. If the plants and other people are still fine at 2000 ppm after a many hours long meeting, then it’s probably not that dangerous.
Alternative test. Is it essential for life? Put a plant in a box. Once established, remove CO2 with a simple CO2 absorber. Watch plant die. Then. Put a tight fitting gas mask on with a CO2 absorber, – and … wait do not do it – you will die. Turns out CO2 is an essential nutrient for animal life. Human Physiology 101.
CO2 is an essential nutrient for life. Geological record and plant research state that recent levels are low, and have impacted on plant growth.

Reply to  Peter
May 15, 2017 4:19 am

“Go into a small crowded room. Measure the CO2. If the plants and other people are still fine at 2000 ppm after a many hours long meeting, then it’s probably not that dangerous.”
Is it really so difficult to accept that the dangers of CO2 as a greenhouse gas are not the same as the dangers of breathing in too much? It’s like arguing that if you can survive drinking a glass of water than flooding cannot be dangerous.

richard
Reply to  Bellman
May 15, 2017 5:01 am

Submarines are 8000 ppm.

Sheri
Reply to  Bellman
May 15, 2017 5:27 am

Isn’t the volume of CO2 closer to the drinking glass of water than the flooding? You seem to be proving that CO2 is harmless rather than a danger. Was that the point?

Reply to  Bellman
May 15, 2017 5:37 am

Submarines don’t have any sunlight, so have no relevance to the dangers of global warming.
Incidentally, I think the 8000ppm is the maximum allowed – not a requirement.

Reply to  Bellman
May 15, 2017 5:54 am

“Was that the point?”
The point was that the dangers of breathing too much CO2 are completely unrelated to the dangers of global warming caused by increasing CO2 levels.

Eustace Cranch
Reply to  Bellman
May 15, 2017 6:32 am

Anyone who knows me here knows I’m a hardcore skeptic and NOT an alarmist. But Bellman has a point. The alarmists aren’t saying CO2 is dangerous to breathe. Arguing about breathable concentrations is an irrelevant distraction.

Jim H.
Reply to  Bellman
May 15, 2017 7:07 am

Yes, but they insist that CO2 is a pollutant and dangerous. This argument demonstrates that CO2 itself is neither.

seaice1
Reply to  Bellman
May 15, 2017 7:58 am

Nitrates and phosphates are essential to life and even added to crops, but nutrient run-off is also pollution. Heat is essential to life, but there is thermal pollution. It is time to put this one to bed.
You can argue that CO2 should not be considered pollution, but the fact that it is necessary to life is not a valid argument.

whiten
Reply to  Bellman
May 15, 2017 11:51 am

seaice1
May 15, 2017 at 7:58 am
You can argue that CO2 should not be considered pollution, but the fact that it is necessary to life is not a valid argument.
—————————
First time that seaice1 makes sense to me……. good offering terms of parley by you seaice1…..congratulations…………in waiting for ceaice2.!
cheers

tom s
Reply to  Bellman
May 15, 2017 11:54 am

It’s a benefit to all of life on earth at current concentrations and will be still be a benefit at 1500ppm if it ever gets there…centuries and centuries from now.

JohnKnight
Reply to  Bellman
May 15, 2017 12:32 pm

“You can argue that CO2 should not be considered pollution, but the fact that it is necessary to life is not a valid argument.”
It’s necessary in the form being called pollution, and beneficial to plants and harmless to animals in the concentrations being called pollution, so all that nonsensical crap about other things being harmful/dangerous in various forms and concentrations is invalid argumentation, I say.

Chimp
Reply to  Bellman
May 15, 2017 12:39 pm

No danger from CO2 as a GHG has been demonstrated. Even as an hypothesis, it has been repeatedly shown false.
Hence, it’s not a pollutant, just an essential trace gas for which the earth is hungry.

whiten
Reply to  Bellman
May 15, 2017 12:41 pm

JohnKnight
May 15, 2017 at 12:32 pm
John, please don’t be so demanding , not at this point, the poor guy is offering the best at the moment, moving out of the “pollution” terminology about CO2, basically ready to agree the silly fault of EPA, please do not push it to far…:)
And that is saeice1, by the way…….nice tempting parley terms here… 🙂
cheers

Chimp
Reply to  Bellman
May 15, 2017 12:53 pm

tom s May 15, 2017 at 11:54 am
If we burned all conceivably economically recoverable fossil fuels over the next four centuries, atmospheric concentration of CO2 would probably max out around 600 ppm. Unfortunately for plant life. IMO 1500 ppm from human activity is unlikely to impossible, even if we tried to reach it. Maybe if we burnt the White Cliffs of Dover and similar formations.

JohnKnight
Reply to  Bellman
May 15, 2017 12:56 pm

I hear ya, whiten, but that kinda crap about glasses of water verses floods is utterly irrelevant, given the form and concentrations under discussion, and the question of (potential) warming is itself a benefit verses harm one. It’s not logical (and is somewhat deceptive) to try to cover both realms with hypothetical harmful warming alone, I say.

whiten
Reply to  Bellman
May 15, 2017 1:28 pm

JohnKnight
May 15, 2017 at 12:56 pm
Yes John….it is worse than crap, the stitching and patching in climate science or the official climatology is so soo bad and ugly that in comparison will make the Frankenstein Monster of Mary Shelley look like Mister or Miss Universe. 🙂
For instance in one part of IPCC AR5 the GWP (Global Warming Potential) is clearly explained and considered as no good at all for the policy making, and advised against it for such a purpose, but never the less in another part all advice about policy in the subject of climate and climate change rotates about the GWP…
Also all policy based in how certain we are in the predictions about GWP and the human CO2 emissions impact in the climate, but then again in another part, climate and climate change is considered and clearly assessed as impossible to predict…….
And lots more of such things in there..’-)
But never the less we have to be patient and fair, even to what we may consider as totally unfair opponents. And even some times trying our best to be really cheery about it all..
cheers

JohnKnight
Reply to  Bellman
May 15, 2017 2:40 pm

“But never the less we have to be patient and fair, even to what we may consider as totally unfair opponents.”
Or verses totally unfair opponents, as some might say ; )

Chimp
Reply to  Bellman
May 15, 2017 3:59 pm

Bellman May 15, 2017 at 5:37 am
Submarine air has been known to reach 11,000 ppm.

Kalifornia Kook
Reply to  Bellman
May 19, 2017 3:59 pm

Here in Mission Viejo we almost passed an ordinance outlawing DHMO (Di-Hydrogen MonOxide). Seriously. Proposed by someone who was irritated at all the idiot ordinances we pass here in Kalifornia.
So, under that ordinance, a glass of water would have been considered dangerous.
[It IS dangerous. If water were available, more California’s would be able to vote. For more Californian politicians. .mod]

Sagi
Reply to  Peter
May 15, 2017 5:23 am

A tight-fitting gas mask with a CO2 absorber will cause absolutely no harm.

Reply to  Sagi
May 15, 2017 11:33 pm

If you fall asleep with one on, you might not wake up. The rate of breathing will slow down with occasional gasps of breath when the hypoxia is sensed, but once sufficiently hypoxic you will be delirious and not give a damn about breathing. The urge to breathe is primarily driven by hypercarbia.

Peter
Reply to  Sagi
May 16, 2017 5:11 am

In reply to Sagi “A tight fitting mask with a CO2 absorber will cause absolutely no harm”. – Please DO NOT try this. The issue is complex, but in brief summary.
Hypocapnia can cause cerebral vasoconstriction, resultanting in cerebral hypoxia, fitting and stroke. Hypocapnia results in alkalosis, with a fall in plasma calcium. This may result in tetany and fitting. This can be life threatening.
Hypocapnia can in younger ages suppress breathing to the point of blackout. Select older people may be resistant, but that indicates other problems.
I remember when working as a registrar in anaesthetics and ICU, repeatedly stealing the the brand new and only CO2 monitor in the hospital at night from either unit to look after my complex ventilated patients – so that I could regulate patients and produce “Normo-carbia”. This is now a requirement in Australian standards for all ICU, anaesthetic and recovery beds – to look for hypo and hyper -carbia. Hypocarbia can be lethal.
I laugh when I read about doctors calling CO2 a pollutant. It’s like calling carbon or oxygen a pollutant. It means that doctor has forgotten all there basic physiology.
I repeat my point, CO2 is an essential nutrient/component of human physiology. Correct levels, like oxygen, are essential for life. As mentioned above, there is little risk from transient exposure to high levels. Low levels may kill, and it is not pleasant to watch. All medical students, anaethetists and intensivists know this.

Reply to  Peter
May 15, 2017 8:00 am

Correct for the plant, but not for the human. We do not need to breath in CO2. We exhale concentrations of CO2 many fold higher than that in ambient air. You can however make yourself pass out by hyperventilating and reducing your blood levels of CO2 till blood flow to the brain drops off.

george e. smith
Reply to  Peter
May 15, 2017 9:03 am

“””””….. · Only 0.04% of our atmosphere is carbon dioxide, which makes it what scientists call a ‘trace gas’; it requires extremely sensitive equipment even to detect it …..”””””
I would caution the author and others against trying to oversell, what otherwise is a good piece.
I also believe that CO2 is not one of humanity’s major problems. Nor is it for any other life on the planet.
But to argue that it is extremely difficult to detect is just nonsense, Statements like that just feed into the hands of the green whackos who argue that skeptics are just ignorant, and shouldn’t be mentioned in the same breath as real scientists.
Einsteinian waves are extremely difficult to detect; and they were undetectable until we learned how to go about it. I’m not a chemist, but I know that chemists know how to detect the presence of extremely small amounts of almost any molecule you want to know.
And none of would be here at our computers or other finger toys reading WUWT if it wasn’t for the presence of trace amount of impurities in silicon crystals, that make our microprocessors and other devices work. And those trace dopants are present often at much lower dosage than 400 ppm.
So be careful about saying ” we ” don’t know how to do this and that, just because YOU (or I) don’t know how it is done by those who DO know exactly how to do it.
G

Jeff Hayes
Reply to  Peter
May 15, 2017 9:10 am

Actually no. Our breathing reflex is triggered by the buildup of CO2 in the lungs. The longer it takes for CO2 to build up, the less often we breathe. Skin or “free” divers- those who do not use breathing equipment- who are untrained often assume that by hyper-ventilating they are buildinf up a reserve of oxygen in their bodies in order to remain submerged longer, but this is wrong, and occasionaly fatal. What they are actually doing is flushing CO2 from their bodies. This then delays the onset of the urge to breathe. The danger, especially underwater, is that blood oxygen levels may deplete, causing unconciousness, before CO2 can build up enough in the lungs for the urge to breathe to kick in. If this occurs while the diver is still underwater then drowning is often the result. Using a CO2 absorbant in a closed breathing system is exactly how oxygen rebreathers work. Like any such device, though, it will not last forever. Our sensitivity to the buildup of CO2 as a waste product in our lungs is our only biological “need” for it, excluding it’s use in food production by plants.

Stevan Reddish
May 14, 2017 11:46 pm

“In a court of law I would have no trouble whatsoever in defending both sets of ‘facts’…”
That is because a court of law does not rely upon “facts”, but upon “expert” opinion about those facts.
The scientific community is supposed to rely upon empirical evidence. This is why warmunists want to stifle debate. They know that their argument is “dodgy”, while denyers’ arguments are soid.
SR

Stevan Reddish
Reply to  Stevan Reddish
May 14, 2017 11:49 pm

(solid)

Reply to  Stevan Reddish
May 15, 2017 3:57 am

+10

Ian Macdonald
Reply to  Stevan Reddish
May 15, 2017 5:40 am

Courts rely as much on theatricals as on facts. I recall the trial of Louise Woodward, in which accusers were allowed to rant like crazy at the bench. About as good a way of getting at the facts as visit to the pub.

May 14, 2017 11:47 pm

The science has devolved to money and politics. And liberals seem to lack science and yet an unnatural need of the same to justify their political wonts.

Gerry, Engliand
Reply to  Pat Childs
May 15, 2017 5:20 am

That’s because ‘liberals’ are actually illiberal. They want to control every aspect of your life because they know better then you and no amount of evidence to the contrary will stop them.

lifeisthermal
May 14, 2017 11:52 pm

“· There is a very poor correlation between carbon dioxide concentrations and atmospheric temperatures so some thing (or things) other than carbon dioxide must be the key driver (or drivers) of global warming”
Yep, try heat. The only thing that can warm, is heat. Adding a heat-absorber will cool. Dry ice is a powerful heat absorber. I can´t figure out why anyone still thinks adding heat-absorbing mass without adding energy would make anything warmer. The first law says that delta U=Q-W, where Q is heat and W is work. Where do we put “forcing” into that. “Forcing” is a made up, fake fact BS term, found nowhere else than in climate science. You have to add either work ON the system, or add more heat, to get it warmer. Let´s drop this fake science once and for all.

Reply to  lifeisthermal
May 15, 2017 7:54 am

lifeisthermal,
Yes, forcing is defined as an ambiguous concept and it’s this ambiguity that gives them the wiggle room to make claims that the laws of physics preclude.
The only thing that can ‘force’ the system is incoming solar energy. Varying GHG concentrations doesn’t force the system, but changes how the system responds to forcing and when they say doubling Co2 results in 3.7 W/m^2 of forcing what they actually mean is that doubling Co2 is EQUIVALENT to 3.7 W/m^2 more post albedo solar energy while keeping the system (GHG concentrations) constant. If there was no incoming solar energy, the EQUIVALENT forcing from doubling Co2 would be 0 W/m^2.
Forcing is defined as the difference between incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of the troposphere upon an instantaneous change to the system or stimulus. This makes it seem like the decrease in power passing through the transparent window upon instantaneously doubling Co2 is equivalent to an instantaneous increase in solar energy, but it’s not and the two sources of energy follow different paths. All of the incoming solar energy not reflected away affects the temperature of the surface in equilibrium with the Sun, while only about half of the instantaneous decrease in power passing through the transparent window does while the remainder is ultimately emitted into space once the system re-establishes a new steady state where the flux difference at TOT converges towards zero. The definition of forcing is also post albedo which makes the negative feedback effects from clouds and ice disappear.

lifeisthermal
Reply to  co2isnotevil
May 15, 2017 10:24 pm

Thanks for that explanation. It is so weird how a theory about temperature, which is well known, 100% consensus physics from the childhood of thermodynamics, have been twisted beyond recognition in climate science. There has to be some serious problems with physics education in climate science, since they say that decreasing emission from “forcing” is a sign of something heating. Emission and temperature have a totally independent relationship, that is the core of thermal physics. If there is one thing that can never happen, it is that something can heat up at the same time as emission decrease. As far as I know, thermodynamics is not part of a climate scientists education.
That is a serious problem, because that is pretty much the only education one needs to understand temperature. I read a study by Hansen, where he straight out said that “forcing” is entirely a function of time. Which means he think energy can increase by just waiting, in a system where energy supply is constant and limited. You have to be really stupid to say that.
What forcing really says, is that by cooling the exhaust, the engine gets hotter. Thats what you get when doing things backwards, averaging solar energy to 240W/m². They think that temperature depends on emission, but we know since 200 years that emission depends on temperature. Everything depends on temperature, not the other way around.

Reply to  lifeisthermal
May 15, 2017 10:53 pm

“Emission and temperature have a totally independent relationship”
Emissions and temperature are codependent on each other based on the Stefan-Boltzmann Law where emissions go as the temperature in Kelvin raised to the 4’th power. The two metrics are just different ways to quantify the same thing, much like Joules and electron volts both quantify energy. Warmists often deny the applicability of the SB Law relative to the relationship between the surface temperature and surface emissions and is why they deny that the IPCC requires each W/m^2 of incident solar energy to result in 4.4 W/m^2 of emissions before a steady state can be achieved.

lifeisthermal
Reply to  co2isnotevil
May 16, 2017 12:14 am

Nice. You are a man with a brain

dikranmarsupial
May 15, 2017 12:05 am

“As a result of mankind’s carbon dioxide emissions, largely from burning fossil fuels, carbon dioxide concentrations in our atmosphere have already reached a monumental 400ppm”
This clearly is not an “alternative fact”. That the post-industrial rise in atmospheric CO2 is anthropogenic is very well established, and it does neither “side” of the public discussion of climate change any good to repeatedly return to canards like this (as Fred Singer explains – his choice of words not mine).

Robert Clemenzi
Reply to  dikranmarsupial
May 15, 2017 12:56 am

The “alternative fact” is that 400 ppm is *monumental* instead of *minuscule*.

dikranmarsupial
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 1:07 am

It is a long way above levels seen in the last 800,000 years, it clearly isn’t “miniscule”. The “monumental” was a rhetorical hyperbole, and is the sort of thing the discussion could do without, likewise “minuscule”; sticking to the science is better.

Dodgy Geezer
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 1:33 am

“Largely from mankind burning fossil fuels” is also an assertion which has been questioned….

dikranmarsupial
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 1:48 am

It may have been questioned, but it has been answered repeatedly, there are many lines of evidence that show beyond reasonable doubt that the post-industrial rise in atmospheric CO2 is anthropogenic. Ferdinand Engelbeen has a nice summary on his website. The fact that skeptics keep on questioning the science in areas where it is solid is exactly what Fred Singer warns of as all it achieves is marginalising them in the public discussion on climate change. It would be much better if we could discuss the topic where there is genuine uncertainty, rather than rehashing these canards again and again and again.

Trebla
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 4:22 am

If 400 ppm is monumental, then the amount of Argon in the air, which is about 25 times greater than the CO2 level must be astronomical!

Alan the Brit
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 4:36 am

I see dikranmarsupial is not allowing his sweeping statements to be questioned or challenged, therefore he/she clearly stands upon shakey ground! The miniscule amount of atmospheric CO2 may be the greatest for 800,000 years, (or is it 750,000, 650,000, 0r 700,00 years, all have been used before), however it also means that the atmospheric level is lower than it was 800,001 yeasr ago!

dikranmarsupial
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 4:38 am

“If 400 ppm is monumental, then the amount of Argon in the air, which is about 25 times greater than the CO2 level must be astronomical!”
argon isn’t a greenhouse gas, so that is a bit of a red-herring. A small increase in greenhouse gasses can have a substantial effect on climate as it modulates a vast flux of energy radiated away into space (if global temperatures are stable, this flux is equal to the energy flux we receive from the sun, which gives an idea of how vast this flux is). Whether 400ppm is large or small depends on the effect it has, and in this case is is non-negligible (the greenhouse effect, including water vapour) keeps the planet about 33K warmer than it would otherwise be, and that effect does not stop at 280ppm (fortunately the effect is logarithmic in nature).

dikranmarsupial
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 4:44 am

“I see dikranmarsupial is not allowing his sweeping statements to be questioned or challenged, therefore he/she clearly stands upon shakey ground!”
No, you can challenge them all you like. Go to Ferdinand Engelbeens website and find a bit of science you think is wrong and I’ll happily discuss it with you, as I have done many, many times before. However that doesn’t change the fact that continually disputing science that is very well supported by the observations will make you look ridiculous. Your choice.

Kermit Johnson
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 5:24 am

This statement by dikranmarsupial pretty much says it all:
“However that doesn’t change the fact that continually disputing science that is very well supported by the observations will make you look ridiculous.”
What “observations”? That CO2 is trending higher at the same time temperature is trending higher?
Or, that the only way to make the climate models work is to use a fudge factor to amplify the too-small effects of CO2 as a greenhouse gas? Think about the absurdity of calling this “science” – and remember that, as the late Dr. Joanne Simpson said, the science consists “almost entirely” of computer models. Computer models curve-fit to the (poor quality) proxy historical data using fudge factors, because that’s the **only way the models will work**.
Science prostituted to politics.

Sheri
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 5:36 am

dikranmarsupial: The fact that CO2 is at 400 ppm and that PROXIES tell us it’s the highest in 800,000 (depending on whose study and proxy one counts as “facts”) has no meaning by itself. It’s like saying there are more trees now than 800,000 years ago or less trees. Only if one adds other bits and pieces to the picture do we get “unnatural” warming. More CO2 from humans? Are we aliens or are we part of the earth? If we’re part of the earth, then adding the CO2 is just part of our evolutionary process. What humans do is not different than what elephants or insects do. We are part of the system if evolution is correct. Should we start regulating ALL processes of the system, since it seems humans have now deemed themselves the overlords of the planet—again not part of the system, apparently? Taking various facts and weaving them into a story is not science—it’s marketing. The facts taken individually are not a problem. It’s the weaving that becomes the psuedoscience.

dikranmarsupial
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 5:43 am

Sheri “Are we aliens or are we part of the earth? If we’re part of the earth, then adding the CO2 is just part of our evolutionary process.”
this is just sophistry. Look up in a dictionary the works “artificial” and “natural”. BTW ice cores are not proxies, the bubbles in the ice are samples of the atmosphere at the time the ice formed.
Kermit wrote “What “observations”?”
so you didn’t bother to click on the links I gave to find out. Sadly that is typical of discussions of science on climate skeptic blogs.

Latitude
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 6:10 am

The “alternative fact” is that 400 ppm is *monumental* instead of *minuscule*.
It’s about 0.02 above death..
…and was so low plants had to evolve to deal with it

Latitude
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 6:47 am

It is a long way above levels seen in the last 800,000 years….
Well of course it is…..plants evolved and sucked it out
CO2 levels dropped to where it became limiting….plant growth slowed down
…new plants evolved to deal with the low levels

MarkW
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 7:23 am

Why limit yourself to 800K years? Is it your theory that CO2 behaved differently before then?

Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 7:26 am

Monkeyboy Marsupial,
Calculate just how much warmer the atmosphere will become because of an increase in CO2 and the consequent change in the “vast flux” as the atmosphere radiates to space. Guess what: you CANNOT! No one can, the calculation is beyond complex. Just how much will the average radiating altitude rise per extra ppm of CO2? NO ONE KNOWS.
Ask Mosher for help in your attempt, he is always very helpful, as is Stokes.

MarkW
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 7:29 am

A small increase in a greenhouse gas can have a big impact.
But only if the gas is a strong greenhouse gas and/or there are strong positive feedbacks.
1) CO2 is a weak green house gas.
2) There are no strong positive feedbacks, most of the feedbacks identified so far have been negative.

dikranmarsupial
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 8:36 am

“2) There are no strong positive feedbacks, most of the feedbacks identified so far have been negative.”
LOL.

Sheri
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 9:10 am

dikranmarsupial: It’s not sophistry. Words have meanings. Except in propaganda. We are either part of the system or we are not. If we are, we are natural. If we are not, where did we come from? The use of artificial is used as an adjective to differentiate what one species (human beings) does from the rest of the system. It is 100% irrelevent to science unless one is attempting to prove humans are a special species and not subject to the science of evolution.
Ice cores are proxies. The bubbles do contain CO2 trapped, but we have no idea if the CO2 level in any way represented the actual atmospheric concentration. It’s a supposition needed to make the proxy work.

Latitude
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 9:16 am

(fortunately the effect is logarithmic in nature)
If this is what you believe….then you believe it acts like any other buffer
At low levels it fluctuates an causes instability…when the level is high enough…it causes stability
What level do you think CO2 needs to be to make the climate/weather stable?

DMA
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 11:15 am

dikranmarsupial
“It is a long way above levels seen in the last 800,000 years, it clearly isn’t “miniscule”.
This also is an erroneous alternative fact based on the misguided assumption that the CO2 found in ice cores is an accurate representation of the actual ancient atmosphere. See Segalstad and Jaworowski 1992 which concludes on pg. 39 The physical phenomena discussed above, and chemical reactions between CO2 and chemical species dissolved in the intercrystalline liquid, must change the proportion gases in the secondary air inclusions (trapped in fractures and between ice crystals), as well as in the primary inclusions (gases originally dissolved in water, trapped when the water froze to ice), pseudo secondary gas inclusions (trapped In pores between the ice crystals, and in the “air bubbles”), and in secondary gas cavities (formed after the decompression of cores), compared to the original atmospheric composition. Therefore, the concentrations of gas species (like CO􀎸 determined in the air bubbles and secondary gas cavities from Greenland and Antarctic cores, e.g. from the Vostok core (Barnola et al., 1987), cannot be regarded as representing original atmospheric concentrations of gas species in the ancient atmosphere.
There have been recent times with CO2 levels as high as today (see Beck, Energy and Environment 2007)which describes many papers on chemical analysis of CO2 and shows concentrations over 450PPM in Germany in 1939 and over 350PPM in 1964.

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  dikranmarsupial
May 15, 2017 3:58 am

More hyperbole: “carbon dioxide concentrations in our atmosphere have already reached”. The implication being that CO2 levels are rising at an unprecedented and dangerous rate of speed. They are adept at couching their lies within.

dikranmarsupial
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
May 15, 2017 4:06 am

So when did they last rise at such a rapid rate?

dikranmarsupial
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
May 15, 2017 4:18 am

BTW ““carbon dioxide concentrations in our atmosphere have already reached” does not imply “CO2 levels are rising at an unprecedented and dangerous rate of speed.” [emphasis mine], as it makes no comparison with historical rates of increase.

MarkW
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
May 15, 2017 7:21 am

Nobody knows, since proxy records don’t have sufficient resolution to answer that question.
Now, please demonstrate how the rate of CO2 concentrations impacts the ability of an individual CO2 atom to trap heat.

Latitude
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
May 15, 2017 7:33 am

“So when did they last rise at such a rapid rate?”
before plants, etc evolved to suck it out

Reply to  dikranmarsupial
May 15, 2017 6:07 am

Per IPCC AR5 Figure 6.1 prior to year 1750 CO2 represented about 1.26% of the total biospheric carbon balance (589/46,713). After mankind’s contributions, 67 % fossil fuel and cement – 33% land use changes, atmospheric CO2 increased to about 1.77% of the total biosphere carbon balance (829/46,713). This represents a shift of 0.51% from all the collected stores, ocean outgassing, carbonates, carbohydrates, etc. not just mankind, to the atmosphere. A 0.51% rearrangement of 46,713 Gt of stores and 100s of Gt annual fluxes doesn’t impress me as measurable let alone actionable, attributable, or significant.

Reply to  dikranmarsupial
May 15, 2017 8:15 am

That the post industrial rise in atmospheric CO2 is anthropogenic is NOT well established. It is a reasonable supposition, nothing more.

Reply to  gymnosperm
May 15, 2017 10:50 am

Actually, the comment is incorrect on two observational grounds. 1. Both land and oceans are net carbon sinks. 2. The declining proportion of d13C to d12C means the increase in atmospheric CO2 ppm is coming from photosynthetic sources– because land and ocean are sinks, the only other photosynthetic source is fossil fuels.
That the rise is mainly anthropogenic fossil fuel consumption is extremely well established.

Reply to  ristvan
May 15, 2017 9:46 pm

You can’t lump soils and plants together, because they have different isotopic signatures. Soils, like humans, are a one-way input of light Carbon to the atmosphere. Plants both absorb and emit enormous amounts of Carbon from and to the atmosphere, but are a small net sink on the order of 5 GtC. Plants fractionate such that is a significant residual of 13C to the atmosphere from their absorption, and they selectively emit 13C in their respiration, such that there is a modest 13C boot to the atmosphere in the return as well.
The net of plant interaction with the atmosphere is to subtract ~5GTC and leave a 5Gt weighted residual of +12 PDB to the atmosphere.
Five Gt@+12, is simply no match for a soil input of 60 Gt@-21. So no, if you insist on lumping soils together with plants and land biota, “Land” becomes no longer a sink, but now a very large source of Carbon to the atmosphere.
Soils are a “photosynthetic” source. Photosynthesis is not the only process that concentrates light Carbon. Bog methane and coal gas are measured as low as -100PDB.

dikranmarsupial
Reply to  gymnosperm
May 15, 2017 12:17 pm

Indeed, it is profoundly disappointing that the topic keeps getting recycled again and again on climate blogs, given that the evidence has been presented very clearly so many times (particularly by Ferdinand Engelbeen).

Reply to  dikranmarsupial
May 15, 2017 9:55 pm

It is always profoundly disappointing to the SKS thought police when a deeper understanding challenges the mantra.

thingadonta
May 15, 2017 12:20 am

It’s all about a sense of proportion, the one thing that gets lost in all the noise, especially within research cultures.
Many researchers, for example, are trained to detect ‘small’ effects, which in some cases are harmful, whether in biochemistry, physics, chemistry, geology, or a myriad variety of other fields. Of course in many cases, ‘small’ amounts of something are not necessarily harmful, and may even be beneficial. Examples include trace elements in food, which are beneficial in small amounts but toxic in large amounts.
However some academics, who spend a lifetime detecting ‘small’ variations or effects, sometimes lose their sense of proportion, in a similar way that the academic imperative is always to promote one’s particular field, sometimes out of all proportion to its’ relevance. The idea is that politics and societal ‘common sense’ usually intervenes to develop a sense of proportion in such matters, however many researchers continue to live in a bubble where they can routinely ignore such ‘common sense’. When fear also gets involved, this sort of ‘promotion’ of one’s field can sometimes get completely out of hand. So you can get a trace gas which is theoretically able to destroy the planet.
Maintaining a sense of proportion and balance in relation to the known facts isn’t always easy, and its’ one of the things that academia has never been very good at. There are incentives for academics to grossly exaggerate to enhance their career, just like there are incentives for traders to make stupid bets. Many researchers have based their entire careers on publishing exaggerated articles which appeal to the prejudices of higher circles within academia before the true facts and true proportionality of such articles comes to light (e.g Mann, Ehrlich, Flannery etc etc).
There has to be some sort of way of balancing academic careerism with empirical based facts and verification, along with a sense of proportion to steer the path forward.

Sparky
Reply to  thingadonta
May 15, 2017 9:38 am

Well stated

May 15, 2017 12:21 am

Excellent paper, should be required reading for all secondary school pupils.

TonyL
May 15, 2017 12:33 am

Well, this saves me.
A couple of posts back, I made a silly comment about the B-52 BUFF and B-1 Lancer aircraft operating off aircraft carriers.
Now we know that my claim was not silly but merely an alternative fact. Science lurches backwards.
Hat tip to Janice Moore for her intuitively brilliant move, noting that if you transpose the numbers in B-52, you get the B-25 Mitchell, and my comment then almost made sense.
The rest of that comment thread went on about the B-25 and the famous Doolittle Raid, and was interesting and informative as a result. No alternative facts needed.

Reply to  TonyL
May 15, 2017 6:16 am

Well there you go.
We merely need point out that after all fossil fuels do not omit CO2, but merely O2C, an entirely harmless plant food.

Matt
May 15, 2017 12:37 am

How can an article go so wrong in the first line, in the section of “key facts” no less…
CO2 is not odourless and not tasteless.

Robert Clemenzi
Reply to  Matt
May 15, 2017 1:01 am

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide

Odor – Low concentrations: none

dikranmarsupial
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 1:09 am

In other words, in concentrations low enough that you can’t smell it, CO2 is odourless? ;o)

AndyG55
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 2:21 am

And its at extremely LOW concentrations in the atmosphere.
FAR lower than the planet NEEDS it to be.

Matt
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 7:49 am

You cannot be serious. Tell me, is rotten egg sulphur odourless at the same concentration as CO2 in the atmosphere?! Something is either odourless or it is not.
Open a bottle of soda and you can smell it.

Sheri
Reply to  Robert Clemenzi
May 15, 2017 9:36 am

“Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a colorless, odorless, non-flammable gas” from multiple sources (including Scientific American). One should not use Wiki for these things.

Chris H
Reply to  Matt
May 15, 2017 2:15 am

CO2 is odourless but induces a stinging sensation in the nose if inhaled in high concentration, presumably due to the carbonic acid formed

Jer0me
Reply to  Chris H
May 15, 2017 4:39 pm

When I worked as a brewer, we used to inhale the CO2 from the top of the fermentation vats. Yes, you get a severe singing sensation, and it actually gets you quite ‘high’. I assume that was just oxygen deprivation. No odour beyond that of yeast, though.
(don’t try this at home, kiddies, you’ll die quite quickly unless you limit it to a very short time)

deebodk
Reply to  Matt
May 15, 2017 5:43 am

CO2 IS odorless and tasteless. There is nothing in its molecular makeup that prescribes it an odor or a flavor. In high enough concentrations it can react with your body’s chemistry and create new, different molecules that your taste and smell receptors respond to, thus the sensation of a smell and/or flavor. I’ve seen videos of people using a bottle of pure CO2 and shooting it into their nose or mouth and proclaiming that it has an odor and flavor, or is noxious because of the unpleasant effect. Not once do they actually stop and think or discuss why that happens. They just conflate the reaction between highly concentrated CO2 and their body with the absolutely minuscule amount in the air, and use it as yet another bullet point for the supposed harmful effects of the gas. Ridiculous.
*insert massive face-palm image here*

urederra
Reply to  Matt
May 15, 2017 10:33 am

I have worked with dry ice, (solid 100% CO2), and it does not smell, neither the vapors emanating from it.

May 15, 2017 12:42 am

I miss one important thing: our O2 (oxygen) is the result of CO2. No CO2 no O2.

Thomas Homer
Reply to  David
May 15, 2017 8:52 am

Earth’s current atmosphere has 500 times more Oxygen than CO2.

urederra
Reply to  David
May 15, 2017 10:30 am

He says so:

It is a plant nutrient and, as the ‘fuel’ of photosynthesis and the creation of oxygen, it is absolutely essential to the existence of life on Earth

And he is wrong.
I said in this site many times that O2 comes from the photolysis of H2O, not from CO2.
once again:
2 H2O + 2 NADP+ + 8 photons (light) → 2 (NADPH+H+) + O2
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photodissociation

Reply to  urederra
May 15, 2017 3:09 pm

Thanks!

Jer0me
Reply to  urederra
May 15, 2017 4:46 pm

But that’s just part of it. Overall photosynthesis is:
CO2 + H2O + photons → [CH2O] + O2
carbon dioxide + water + light energy → carbohydrate + oxygen
Now, you could be pedantic and say that only part of that creates oxygen, and that part specifically does not involve CO2, but that’s a bit too pedantic for my taste.

Ron Williams
May 15, 2017 12:56 am

We need more headlines that ridicule this entire narrative. Like “CO2 Causes Mindless Zombies To Crave More Brains.” That will get the Millennials attention, who I think are the ones brainwashed from school on this whole CAGW propaganda mission. Anyone under 35 has had this drilled into their head now for the last 20 years, and they actually believe it since it has been taught it as a scientific truth. So, it really isn’t their fault. It is now on TV/media day and night claiming an apocalypse is near. Hopefully, the Trump administration gets this turned around before it is too late and everyone is drunk on the global warming, climate change kool-aid.
I know very few people over 40 who actually believe any of this privately, unless they are some type of Gov’t worker or an academic teaching at a school or collage etc. where any deviation from the narrative is not productive for your career. Or some other such occupation that doesn’t allow free thought. Friends and colleagues that are in their 50’s regularly have a good laugh at all this nonsense, although now it is not so funny when you see what local politicians want to do to ‘combat’ climate change as if they can just pay some money to change the climate like they would pay a toll to cross a bridge. It would really all be laughable if it were not for the fact that so much money is at stake now, with so many people, businesses and governments at every level having a vested interest in getting some quick project approved, cash or power such as a city or county that can collect revenue off this. It has turned into a dirty rotten shameless scam.

GeeJam
Reply to  Ron Williams
May 15, 2017 11:45 am

Nicely put Ron.

charles nelson
May 15, 2017 1:22 am

There you go…the CARBON atom is coloured BLACK.
And the OXYGEN atoms are BLUE.
A carbon ‘atom’ is not BLACK, CO2 is colourless, diamonds are made of CARBON.
See me doing the shouty capitalisation thing there?
Well that’s just me trying to get the message across…LET’S BE careful not to do the work of the Warmist unwittingly!

TonyL
Reply to  charles nelson
May 15, 2017 3:39 am

Every molecular model kit I have ever seen, the Carbon atoms are always black. Been that way since forever.

charles nelson
Reply to  TonyL
May 15, 2017 6:03 am

Wikipedia says…Some of the most common colors used in molecular models are as follows: carbon= black [citation needed]
given the number of elements and the number of colors, some degree of subjective choice would be required.
Why Black?

Reply to  TonyL
May 15, 2017 6:18 am

Solid carbon* is black, that’s why carbon molecules are coloured black.
*diamonds excepted.

A C Osborn
May 15, 2017 1:25 am

Sorry, the whole point of this post is lost when the word Fact is used
Fact – a thing that is known or proved to be true:
Most of the AGW narrative is not proved to be true and a lot of it is based on opinion.
Plus the description of a fact in law is
Fact – the truth about events as opposed to interpretation:
So opinion and interpretation are out.

Dodgy Geezer
May 15, 2017 1:29 am

…In a 140 characters or fewer Tweeting, knee-jerk reaction, internet-driven world of shortening attention spans where ‘TLDR’ (Too Long; Didn’t Read’) is a typical reaction to any complex issue few will take the very considerable time and very considerable trouble to root out…
There is a double whammy – If you try to compress a description of a complex issue into a small space, you will invariably miss some things out and simplify others. This results in discrepancies which will be seized on by your debating opponents as proof that you are mistaken or lying.
So you will fail if you try to explain a complex problem to the general public, and you will fail if you try to simplify it…..

May 15, 2017 1:35 am

“We are a carbon based life form, and every carbon atom in your body was once CO2 in the atmosphere.”
I made that statement in my 2nd Saturday of the month breakfast group, and they didn’t know that.

Reply to  Steve Case
May 15, 2017 3:30 am

Steve you could also add that all the limestone and marble in the world was formed by living creatures metabolising CO2 from the atmosphere. The White Cliffs of Dover would be very symbolic in this context.

Reply to  andrewmharding
May 15, 2017 5:33 am

Yes, and the primordial atmosphere
http://www.eniscuola.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/06_current_and-primordial_atmosphere_thu-400×225.jpg
was mostly CO2 and Methane, and you know what? With all that dreaded CO2 and methane that’s umptyflumpty times more powerful, the Earth didn’t boil away.

May 15, 2017 1:37 am

not even wrong
trace gas
too funny

Reply to  Steven Mosher
May 15, 2017 5:52 am

0.04% – trace gas by concentration.
But strong GHG, and vital for life on earth.

Reply to  Turbulent Eddie
May 15, 2017 8:42 am

Turbulent, (Mosher, this is directed to you as well).
Not even close to being a strong GHG. Without GHG’s and clouds, the surface emissions would be 1 W/m^2 per W/m^2 of accumulated forcing. The current system generates 1.6 W/m^2 of surface emissions per W/m^2 of forcing. This means that the combined effects of all GHG’s and clouds only increases the surface emissions by 60%. But wait, the final effect is even less since without GHG’s and clouds, the albedo would be far less and the average surface temperature would be about 272K and not 255K as often claimed. But as I pointed out in another post, the definition of forcing obfuscates the negative feedback like effects from clouds, so while the claim that the surface is 33C warmer is true, the fact that’s universally ignored is that the surface is also effectively 18C colder owing to increased reflection and the net increase is only 15C.
Based on the IPCC sensitivity factor, the 0.8C increase that’s claimed to arise from 1 W/m^2 of ‘forcing’ will increase surface emissions by an impossibly large 4.4 W/m^2. They claim that the extra 3.3 W/m^2 comes from ‘positive feedback’ arising from the 1 W/m^2 of forcing. Of course, if all W/m^2 of forcing resulted in 3.3 W/m^2 of ‘feedback’, the surface temperature would be close to the boiling point of water. This comprises a trivial, unambiguous and undeniable falsification of the high sensitivity claimed unless you can make a case that different Joules can do different amounts of work. Mosher, do you want to tackle this one?
The reason they use the non linear sensitivity metric of surface degrees per W/m^2 of forcing, rather than using SB to convert between temperature and emissions and using the linear, dimensionless metric of W/m^2 of surface emissions per W/m^2 of forcing is because 0.8C per W/m^2 seems plausible while 4.4 W/m^2 of surface emissions per W/m^2 is obvious nonsense even as both represent the exact same thing.

Bryan A
Reply to  Turbulent Eddie
May 15, 2017 8:39 pm

Ayup,
And without it ALL life parishes. We have evolved to emit CO2 and plants to take it up and emotional O2. We have a symbiotic relationship with plants, it’s how life evolved

Bryan A
Reply to  Turbulent Eddie
May 15, 2017 8:40 pm

Emit CO2 dang autocorrect autofill

Curious George
Reply to  Steven Mosher
May 15, 2017 8:14 am

Is Argon at 9340 ppm a trace gas? Mosh can be really funny.

Reply to  Curious George
May 15, 2017 6:00 pm

Mosh is mostly a drive-by jacka…
Oooh, forgot…trying to be nice, instead of bluntly factual.

Solomon Green
Reply to  Steven Mosher
May 15, 2017 10:49 am

So at least Mr. Mosher does not believe in all that Wikipedia prints
“A trace gas is a gas which makes up less than 1% by volume of the Earth’s atmosphere, and it includes all gases except nitrogen (78.1%) and oxygen (20.9%). The most abundant trace gas at 0.934% is argon. Water vapor also occurs in the atmosphere with highly variable abundance.”

Reply to  Solomon Green
May 15, 2017 6:02 pm

That is tr4ue of dry air.
In the real atmosphere, on the whole, water vapor is not a trace gas.

whiten
Reply to  Steven Mosher
May 15, 2017 11:56 am

Steven Mosher
May 15, 2017 at 1:37 am
Good Mosher, cool Mosher, juicy and clever..:)
Mosher to cool here, where the rest of the juicy ones, still liking their wounds?
cheers

May 15, 2017 1:39 am

· There is an extraordinarily close correlation between carbon dioxide concentrations and atmospheric temperatures
· Carbon dioxide exerts an increasing warming effect as its concentrations increase
___________________________________________
Such defaitistic bowing to inappropriate claims keeps climate alarmism alive.

Curious George
Reply to  kreizkruzifix
May 15, 2017 8:16 am

Actually, atmospheric temperatures are controlled by the Dow-Jones stock market index.

Jer0me
Reply to  Curious George
May 15, 2017 4:50 pm

Or pirates. The science is not settled!

Reply to  kreizkruzifix
May 15, 2017 8:23 am

Yes, those two statements are not alternate facts, they are completely false.

Peta from Cumbria, now Newark
May 15, 2017 1:51 am

How’s it got so crazy?
Because people are scared. Irrationally so.
Ah you say, Climate Science is a crock. Yeeeeees, but science has been on the downhill for a long time, in that it has failed to explain stuff to people for the last few generations.
The classic example is of course Nuclear. One person somewhere sometime, on a ‘bad hair day’ possibly, decided that any exposure to any nuclear radiation, no matter how small, was dangerous and to be avoided.
And when you’ve got a population chronically depressed, addicted to sugar and ‘bad news’ – that thing exploded and went worldwide.
Where where The Scientists to put the brakes on that?
Likewise DDT
Likewise saturated fat
Likewise dietary salt
Likewise (some) childhood vaccinations
Likewise etc etc etc
Where were the Scientists *then* to explain things properly?
And just why did ‘we’ go to the Moon?
Its a one of those awful cause & effect things but I suggest we went to the Moon because we were scared of it. And the best way our tiny little minds (shrunken, literally, by sugar) could resolve that worry about what the Moon was or is, what’s it up to – was to go there and conquer it. To make it ours, to show it who is boss.
And so we did. Is it possible to get any more phallic, boy symbolism than to stick a flag pole into it. Ha, take that Moon. You’re fooked, I got there first and I did it. You’re mine now.
Childish in the extreme. And why are grown people reverting to children, blubbing & crying on TV, Parliament and all over the interweb. Because large parts of their brains are chronically switched off.
Just like missionaries went into jungles looking for ‘lost tribes’
And they all got syphilis. Lots of good intentions going on there wasn’t ‘t there?
And now, people are scared of the weather and (yet) again, Science is failing to properly explain it.

I Came I Saw I Left
Reply to  Peta from Cumbria, now Newark
May 15, 2017 5:52 am

Would you be willing to say that strontium atoms incorporated into bone tissue, cesium atoms incorporated into heart tissue or plutonium atoms in the lungs are not dangerous? Particulate radiation incorporated into cellular tissue is a whole different animal that ionizing radiation external to us.

Reply to  I Came I Saw I Left
May 15, 2017 7:14 am

There were several crackpots here just a few months ago trying the same double babble to confuse people.
Start with:
A) particulate nuclear matter exposure is normal across wide swaths of the Earth.
• – 1) trying to add fear by randomly ‘naming’ possible ionized particles is sheer nonsense.
• – 2) If you have actual evidence, give all the particulars! Instead, all you have are ‘possible’ imaginary specious claims, not actual evidence.
B) “Particulate radiation incorporated into cellular tissue is a whole different animal” oooh! the fear! How terrible!
• – 1) Is absolute b_ll_hit! That sentence of your is meant to cause maximum fear without actual evidence
camesawleft or better phrased as nevergoanywhere, bogus!

Roger Graves
Reply to  I Came I Saw I Left
May 15, 2017 7:20 am

I Came I Saw I Left: it all depends how much strontium or cesium or plutonium is incorporated into your tissue. A tiny amount will have no appreciable effect on you, because you are already radioactive – you naturally contain radioactive elements such as carbon-14 and potassium-40. Lying in bed at night with your partner results in a radiation dose because your partner is also radioactive.
Being neurotically frightened of any amounts of radioactivity, no matter how small, is equivalent to being frightened of monsters under your bed.

Philo
Reply to  I Came I Saw I Left
May 15, 2017 7:50 am

The dose is the poison. Background radiation causes very little if any damage. The body has mechanisms to repair any damage, evolved to prevent harm. A small particle,not a few atoms, of plutonium or cesium is dangerous when it gets into the body because it emits strong radiation in one tiny spot resulting in a biologic dose hundreds to thousands of time larger than whole body absorption of back ground radiation.
The amount of cesium or plutonium remaining in the air due to the Cold War bomb production and weapons testing has almost all decayed radioactively or been buried in ocean sediments. The pollution around the US and USSR bomb plants, and Chernobyl are still problems that have been studiously being down-played by both countries.
Your point has nothing to do with the point of the post that the dangers of nuclear power and radiation have been way overblown by the continued propaganda that any amount of radiation is dangerous. That is a paten lie. We all live and survive background radiation.

Keith J
Reply to  I Came I Saw I Left
May 15, 2017 8:10 am

Potassium contains a radioactive isotope. Same as carbon..plenty of naturally occurring radioactive materials give us no problem.

I Came I Saw I Left
Reply to  I Came I Saw I Left
May 15, 2017 12:36 pm

ATheoK: There are a lot of and birth defects due to genetic mutations in areas affected by Chernobyl.
Roger Graves: If one strontium atom causes a DNA mutation in bone marrow causing leukemia, that is a sufficient dose. I was afraid of monsters under my bed when I was young, but I learned to get over it. I used to be afraid of the thing you speak of, but I learned to get over it. Life ends in death, but that doesn’t mean that I ignore or justify the things that can kill me. I just don’t worry about them.
Philo: I think that nuclear power and human life are incompatible. All it takes is one mistake and an entire country can be ruined, virtually forever. Fukushima is still pumping out horrendous contamination, and they have no idea what to do about it. The situation is totally out of control.

Jer0me
Reply to  I Came I Saw I Left
May 15, 2017 4:54 pm

I Came, for God’s sake, never eat bananas if you understand so little about radioactivity. They are so radioactive that eating two a day gives you a higher dose of radiation than is allowed to workers in nuclear power stations!

Reply to  I Came I Saw I Left
May 15, 2017 6:27 pm

And that, Jerome, is why monkeys stopped evolving and we are at the top of the food chain … we climbed down out of the trees and got away from the nasty radiation diet.

I Came I Saw I Left
Reply to  I Came I Saw I Left
May 15, 2017 7:38 pm

Jer0me: I have read that the body normally excretes K-40 to maintain metabolic equilibrium, Passing through the body is entirely different than being incorporated into cells as cesium and strontium are.

I Came I Saw I Left
Reply to  I Came I Saw I Left
May 16, 2017 6:04 am

ATheoK: Per you B) above, cesium is a muscle seeker and strontium is a bone seeker. For example, strontium can substitute for calcium in bone tissue, thereby becoming part of the cell structure itself.

A C Osborn
Reply to  Peta from Cumbria, now Newark
May 15, 2017 7:48 am

The USA went to the Moon to beat the Russians to it.
Once that Space Race was won the USA started closing down their space exploration.

dennisambler
May 15, 2017 2:21 am

“The best projections tell us that we have less than 100 months to alter our behavior before we risk catastrophic climate change. – Charles, Prince of Wales, March, 2009”
Well, here we are, 102 months on, are we there yet?

stan stendera
Reply to  dennisambler
May 15, 2017 3:01 am

Queen Elizabeth is living a very long life and clinging to the throne to keep Prince Charles the Dumb off the throne.

I Came I Saw I Left
Reply to  stan stendera
May 15, 2017 6:02 am

Long live the queen!

May 15, 2017 2:29 am

The list of facts is incorrect:

it is absolutely essential to the existence of life on Earth

Not really. Complex life without doubt, but a lot of bacteria and microorganisms do not depend on CO2 fixation.

crop yields have improved dramatically to date and will continue to improve in the future

We do not know anything about the future. Educated guesses about the future are never a fact.

Most global warming experienced since 1950 can be attributed to natural climate variability

Nobody can demonstrate it, or the opposite, so attributing something to a cause without evidence is hardly a fact.

At low enough concentrations carbon dioxide could cause catastrophic climate change and the extinction of all life on Earth

What could or couldn’t happen is never a fact, and for all we know the earth would experience a reduction in life complexity, not the extinction of all life. We might have experienced already the first steps in the process. Today’s largest land and flying animals are significantly smaller than past largest land and flying animals.

Newminster
Reply to  Javier
May 15, 2017 3:50 am

Javier — you’re trolling!
The list of “facts” you quote is simply the flip side of the list of warmist “facts” that claim the opposite in each case. Perhaps you would care to go back and pick the same holes in those? Or perhaps you think that version is the “true” one? In which case you are simply proving Iain Aitken’s argument that a good lawyer could effectively argue either way.
And thereby demonstrating that “Climate Change” is not a science at all. It’s a belief system.

Reply to  Newminster
May 15, 2017 7:56 am

No trolling. If you write a list of facts. They better be facts. Otherwise the list is useless.

hunter
Reply to  Javier
May 15, 2017 4:32 am

Perhaps you are implying that all higher level life and plants would be ok with 0 CO2?

Reply to  hunter
May 15, 2017 7:56 am

Perhaps I am not.

Newminster
Reply to  hunter
May 15, 2017 10:00 am

So what you are saying, Javier, is that these facts which you are picking holes are not facts but that your facts which I am happy to pick holes in are facts.
Which is as good a definition of a belief system as you could find. You believe A; I believe B. Both are believable; both are challengeable.
The problem with warmistas is their blinkers. They never ever ever admit that they just might, even around the fringes, be wrong. Another definition of a belief system!

fretslider
May 15, 2017 2:44 am

The average climate sceantist tends to radiate more heat than light.

seaice1
Reply to  fretslider
May 15, 2017 8:16 am

That is due to black body radiation at 37C. The maximum in the IR region.

Jer0me
Reply to  fretslider
May 15, 2017 4:57 pm

It’s all the same, just different frequencies.

John
May 15, 2017 2:44 am

Much ado about 0,04%…

Bryan A
Reply to  John
May 15, 2017 9:52 pm

Much ado about the 0.003%human contribution

Carbon500
May 15, 2017 2:58 am

Here’s another way to massage figures. We’re told that in the pre-industrial era CO2 was present at 280ppm, or two hundred and eighty molecules per million of all atmospheric gases, excluding water vapour.
Now it’s 400ppm.
So CO2 has risen by 43% since the pre-industrial era – a much more impressive ‘shock-horror’ soundbite for propaganda purposes, yet the ones who believe in dangerous man-made global warming missed that one.
I wonder why? Yet life goes on!
I’ve always wondered if there’s some interaction in the atmosphere between CO2 and water vapour which affects the way infra-red radiation behaves. I also wonder how much CO2 there is in the atmosphere in an area where there’s been rainfall, given the solubility of the gas. Any information will be welcomed – but I’m not a physicist, so verbal descriptions would be preferred.
In the course of my work in a medical laboratory years ago, samples were often received in solid CO2 or ‘dry ice’ . I certainly couldn’t smell it as the gas sublimated on opening the insulated containers. However, my ancient chemistry textbook from 1963 states that the gas has a faint taste and smell, but there are no indications of the concentrations involved. Perhaps some people are more sensitive to the presence of CO2.

deebodk
Reply to  Carbon500
May 15, 2017 7:30 am

The only reason CO2 has a taste or smell at higher concentrations is due to its reaction with your body chemistry to create different molecules that your taste and smell receptors respond to. CO2 itself has no intrinsic taste or smell.

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