Guest essay by Eric Worrall
h/t 1saveenergy – Two Russian icebreakers have become stuck in metre thick ice fields, on their return from a journey to escort supplies to Russia’s northernmost port.
Icebreakers make historic Arctic voyage, then get stuck in frozen sea on return journey
By The Siberian Times reporter 17 January 2017
Vessels could be marooned ‘for a week’ in East Siberian Sea after getting caught in thick ice.
Bulk carriers Sinegorsk and Johann Mahmastal made a successful midwinter cargo crossing from Arkhangelsk to Russia’s northernmost port of Pevek, Chukotka, escorted by icebreakers Kapitan Dranitsyn and Admiral Makarov.
It was the first such crossing since Soviet times, and the ships delivered supplies for the supplies for the world’s first floating heat and power plant to be assembled in Chukotka after a journey lasting from 14 December to 7 January.
The ease of the sailing is seen as a sign that climate warming in the Arctic can open up shopping lanes even in midwinter. But the climate remains unpredictable as the four vessels have discovered on their return route.
They are currently trapped by sudden thick ice around Chukotka’s northernmost cape Shelagsky, some 24 nautical miles from Pevek, in some of Russia’s most exposed waters.
Ruslan Nazarov, chief of Chukotka’s emergencies service, said: ‘The ice around Cape Shelagsky is at 10 points. The ice fields are more than one metre thick. The ice compression is strong and hummocks are higher than 2.5 metres.
…
Read more (good pictures): http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/n0847-icebreakers-make-historic-arctic-voyage-then-get-stuck-in-frozen-sea-on-return-journey/
Its interesting that this crossing hasn’t been attempted since soviet times – perhaps the risk of getting stuck in the ice is too high for this route to be a regular event.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
I had to giggle at the typo “opening up shopping lanes”.
Sounds like Wal-Mart made it to Russia.
Stuck-in-ice ice breakers. Food source for the declining polar bears?
/sarc.
That’s it! Polar Bear shopping lanes!
If polar bears ever learn how to climb boarding ladders, we are all in trouble.
If they can hold on there is some more Arctic warming (courtesy of recent solar events) forecast to be due in their area around mid-February.
Forecast interpretations of GFS at 10 HPa from now through to the end of Feb..
I had to google that to find out what you’re talking about, Tom. For the other folks as ignorant as me:
“GFS” is “Global Forecast System”
“10 hPa” refers to atmospheric pressure, which implies altitude. “hPa” is another name for millibar (mb). The average atmospheric pressure at sea level is just over 1 bar, or 1000 mb. (Atmospheric pressure at 110 meters altitude averages just about exactly 1000 mb.) So 10 hPa is about 1/100 of sea-level pressure, which means it’s at about 19 miles altitude.
Yes Dave,
I follow a number of weather forecasting channels and some often look at this information at this time of year as it tends to signal rapid variation in the jet stream and upper atmosphere Arctic warming caused by variations in solar winds. Currently as there has been a large solar hole. This hole has been cyclically coming to face the earth about every 28 days or so since about October, showering the earth in higher than normal solar wind.
He’s a guy who takes particular interest in these events.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/sy0t8eEk7YI
Isn’t that just weather and not climate ? Everybody knows the the Arctic became ice free in 2013… ( sarc)
According to the caretaker where my sail boat is docked on the Columbia River in Washington State, the boat basin is iced over to the part of the river where the current is stronger.
This only the second time that I have needed to worry about ice in more than 20 years.
Our “cold” this year has not been very severe but the length of time it has stayed cold has been more than most winters. Many water pipes and such are known to have burst and others will be found as temps warm. The ice on trees, roads, and wires is another interesting story.
Interesting story, but wrong photo. The two stuck icebreakers are both non-nuclear vessels, which, though large and powerful, are nevertheless smaller and less powerful than the pictured nuclear icebreaker, “Arktika.”
I think these are the ones involved:
http://www.maritime-executive.com/media/images/article/Photos/Ocean/Cropped/stuck%20in%20ice%2016×9.jpg
This is One of them at work now:
http://siberiantimes.com/PICTURES/OTHERS/Icebreakers-stuck-Chukotka/inside%205.jpg
That for sharing John. I am experiencing the ‘cold’ via the internet. It is better to be over prepared and have a plan B.
Depending on electricity is a trap because of ‘ice on trees’. Utilities are quick to repair downed power lines. When the power comes back on, frozen pipes thaw out and flooding results in lots of damage.
CO2 will save them.
Unless their tongues freeze to the ice while exhaling forcefully upon it…
Not just in Russian waters. In China 19% of Laiodong bay is ice bound.
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1029606.shtml
is this unusual for the time of year dennis ?
Well, hell–Putin should drop the price of oil and send promo gas shipments to Europe to get that ice-thawing CO2 up to snuff.
Have carbon will burn.
Mother Nature just won’t cooperate with the warmists will she !
These Russian icebreakers are the bad boys of ice-breaking, nuclear-powered behemoths rated for over 2.5m ice thickness. In soviet times a captain who so embarrassed the USSR by letting a piddling 1m ice sheet stop him would find himself relocated to Siberia. Pour encourager les autres.
Oh, wait… they’re already in Siberia. Never mind.
In Soviet Russia, president assassinate you, comrade. 😀
Actually ..not these ones that are stuck…..
Both the “Kapitan Dranitsyn” and the “Admiral Makarov” are diesel powered.
The ship pictured is one the new 2016 nuclear powered vessel.. as you say.. big fellas !!!
No comments and graphs from Griff in this post ….?
See above. I can only get here at lunch and the odd coffee break -I can’t camp here like some people.
In short, this is a nonsense story…
This winter sees less ice and thinner ice and more broken ice than ever before in the arctic, plus a continued high temp anomaly and a series of storms.
It for sure ain’t trapping these vessels due to a change to colder conditions/more ice
Griff, I agree that this is a nonsense story. Stuff happens, and this can occur with an incredibly significant amount of sea ice, or very little that hits an ice-breaker in a “perfect storm”, so to speak.
Yes Griff
Icebreakers always get stuck in non-existent ice I guess they were not made to travel in just water. The icebreakers would probably work better if there was more ice /sarc
Still using Barclays systems eh Griff?
Joined up thinking-
“It was the first such crossing since Soviet times”
“The ease of the sailing is seen as a sign that climate warming in the Arctic can open up shipping lanes even in midwinter”
Couldn’t the new president send Al Gore and Michael Mann on a four year fact finding mission to the Arctic?
Today (20th) is my birthday and Mr Trump is going to be inaugurated – sometimes your birthdays see all good things come at once!
Ice breakers break the ice. They brake the ice at least in two pieces and because they are mostly not operating in the middle of the Arctic, they are ‘cutting the edges’. As soon as the connection with the ‘mass’ of all the floating ice is lost, the smaller pieces are able to float away to warmer regions – and melt – some wind from the North is enough. In this way ice breakers are promoting ice melt.
In the future probably a rising float of (ever stronger) ice breakers will cut the ice in many pieces. Like big storms do with thin ice. The ice floating away will diminish the ice content of the Arctic. Probably ‘global warming’ will be blamed.
Wot no Griff!
It’s a pity ‘Northabout’ with its enormous diesel engine and fuel tanks isn’t around to help out.
The ship which sailed completely through the NW passage and wasn’t ice bound anywhere?
Tell me which years before 2000 the NW passage was completely open and ice free to yachts and cruise liners, for a period of a decade…
What decade are you talking about? Ice conditions in the Arctic in 2013 were so bad that many North-west Passage quests were halted or turned back. These jokers were laughed at a few times here at WUWT.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/sea-ice-winds-end-rowers-northwest-passage-bid-early-1.1362408
‘… NW passage was completely open and ice free to yachts and cruise liners, for a period of a decade…’
Got some proof of that ‘period of a decade’? Names of cruise liners passing through each year from 2006 onwards please.
1662 perhaps
15 Jan 1662
Samuel Pepys
fast day ordered by the Parliament, to pray for more seasonable weather; it having hitherto been summer weather, that it is, both as to warmth and every other thing, just as if it were the middle of May or June, which do threaten a plague (as all men think) to follow, for so it was almost the last winter; and the whole year after hath been a very sickly time to this day
about 1816 perhaps at least Royal Socity thought so
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/20/historic-variation-in-arctic-ice/
Nigel S January 20, 2017 at 5:56 am
‘… NW passage was completely open and ice free to yachts and cruise liners, for a period of a decade…’
Got some proof of that ‘period of a decade’? Names of cruise liners passing through each year from 2006 onwards please.
Try Hanseatic and Bremen (Hapag-Lloyd Cruises).
Rick January 20, 2017 at 5:39 am
What decade are you talking about? Ice conditions in the Arctic in 2013 were so bad that many North-west Passage quests were halted or turned back.
But these guys still made it:
190 Anna (10∙5 m yawl)
191 Arktika (15 m sloop)
192 Bremen (ice-strengthened ship)
193 d’Acalèphe (13∙9 yacht)
194 Dodo’s Delight (10∙1 m yacht)
195 Hanse Explorer (48 m motor yacht)
196 Hanseatic (ice-strengthened ship)
197 Isatis (14∙2 m yacht)
198 La Belle Epoque (12∙8 m yacht)
199 Lady M II (50 m motor yacht)
200 Le Soléal (cruise vessel)
201 Libellule (14∙3 m catamaran)
202 Michaela Rose (49∙4 m motor yacht)
203 Nordic Orion (ice-strengthened bulk cargo vessel)
204 Octopus (128 m motor yacht)
205 Perd pas le Nord (15∙2 m yacht)
206 Polar Bound5 (14∙6 m motor boat)
207 Traversay III (13∙7 m yacht)
Rick January 20, 2017 at 5:39 am
What decade are you talking about? Ice conditions in the Arctic in 2013 were so bad that many North-west Passage quests were halted or turned back.
I posted a list of the 18 successful transits that year but for some reason it wasn’t accepted.
Griff has been corrected on this lie several times. He keeps repeating it because the narrative is more important to him than reality.
Not so good in 2010
http://www.cruiselawnews.com/2010/08/articles/sinking/clipper-adventurer-cruise-ship-runs-aground-in-the-arctic/
One year does not a decade make!
“Just remember, it’s not a lie if you believe it” George Costanza
‘Hanseatic’ went through in 2010, in 2011 they offered cruises in part of NW passage so not quite ‘a period of a decade…’ and not actually passing through each year from 2006 (as requested).
‘For the first time ever, Hapag-Lloyd Cruises offers guests to discover the fascination of the Arctic and the Northwest Passage on a shorter, 19-day cruise with MS HANSEATIC. Sailing through a smaller portion of the Northwest Passage, guests will follow the traces of Amundsen and Franklin and explore the ice coast of Greenland as well as the untouched island world in the north of Canada.’
There’s been ‘considerable shrinkage’ of the ice but not of Griff’s delusions unfortunately.
‘The ship which sailed completely through the NW passage and wasn’t ice bound anywhere?’
Here’s some ice they encountered, there was plenty as you know. Fair play to them for making it through but it was a close run thing despite lots of modern technology and refueling stops. You tried describing her as a ‘tiny yacht’ at the time until the size, engine power, fuel capacity and refueling stops were noted. People here have pretty much spotted your MO.
http://polarocean.co.uk/bigger-bits-can-see-radar-i-just-come-off-watch-brain-frazzled-probably-radar-concentration-need-intense/
Nigel S January 20, 2017 at 6:47 am
‘Hanseatic’ went through in 2010, in 2011 they offered cruises in part of NW passage so not quite ‘a period of a decade…’ and not actually passing through each year from 2006 (as requested).
Hanseatic went through in 96, 97, 98, 00, 02, 07, 09, 10, 12, 13
Bremen in 03, 06, 08, 09, 11,13
L’Austral in 14
Silver Explorer in 14
Le Boreal in 15
Le Soleal in 15
Nigel S January 20, 2017 at 7:37 am
‘The ship which sailed completely through the NW passage and wasn’t ice bound anywhere?’
Here’s some ice they encountered, there was plenty as you know. Fair play to them for making it through but it was a close run thing despite lots of modern technology and refueling stops.
Well they did make a little tough on themselves by insisting on sailing the NE passage first!
Phil, did any of those ships find any dead polar bears???
The NW passage has each year been open and ice free to any class of ship without icebreaker assistance in the ten years up to 2016.
you just have to google NW passage open and the year or similar to prove it.
Nigel, you do understand the difference between rocks and ice?
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/sciencefair/post/2010/09/northwest-passage-open-melting-arctic-ice-global-warming-climate-change/1#.WII1p1OLSUk
Hey Nigel – it is a tiny yacht compared to mine
Griff,
The twelve years between 436-448 the Northwest passage was open, and ice free, for travel.
“The NW passage has each year been open and ice free to any class of ship without icebreaker assistance in the ten years up to 2016”
In 2013 Canadian Ice breakers opened the Bellot Straight to allow ships to pass through. Without their assistance the North-west passage was essentially closed for that year. You know that so why do you continue with your story?
Phil. January 20, 2017 at 7:38 am
Phil, thanks interesting list, not really one for big boat cruising myself (even if ice strengthened), I prefer my 21 foot, 1936, gaff rigged 4 tonner (sans engine). Looks like a 20 year pause there from your dates (1996 onwards)!
Phil. January 20, 2017 at 7:42 am
This is a really impressive circumnavigation, real sailing in a fragile trimaran, not motoring in a big ice strengthened yacht with lots of diesel.
http://sail.corsairmarine.com/circumnavigating-the-earth-on-the-arctic-ocean
Larsen 1944. His route was closed off this year.
And the main NW passage through McClure Strait, was also closed this year, blocked solid
Nigel S January 20, 2017 at 1:17 pm
Phil. January 20, 2017 at 7:38 am
Phil, thanks interesting list, not really one for big boat cruising myself (even if ice strengthened), I prefer my 21 foot, 1936, gaff rigged 4 tonner (sans engine). Looks like a 20 year pause there from your dates (1996 onwards)!
Not sure what you mean by a ‘pause’ in this context?
Projects like this are well researched. I’m sure the global cooling about to occur was a factor. Probabilities, possibilities all have to be anticipated, eggs in various baskets. Wisdom for survival. Look for the facts, the truth. Russia, Putin doing a good job all things considered. USA creating their own (un)truths to make money, fcuk the truth attitude. Blind.
This has some useful stuff on the state of the ice and some learned debate on the Northern Sea route which is relevant to the ‘first since soviet times’ discussion.
enjoy.
http://greatwhitecon.info/blog/
You are apparently unaware that 4.3 million tons of cargo went through the northern sea route 1933-39. The amount decreased to a low of 144 000 tons in 1942 (when however two destroyers went through from the Pacific to Murmansk, pretty remarkable considering how fragile destroyers were at that time). By 1945 cargo volume was back up to 440 000 tons.
During the 30’s the sailing period in the western Arctic increased from 45 to 107 days and in the Eastern Arctic from 30 to 79 days.
That site is a big con.
Have you apologised to Doctor Cockcroft for lying about her professional qualifications to try to discredit her, you unpleasant, mendacious little propagandist?
It’s Crockford.
yes, jim and i have a bet on arctic sea ice out to 2022 griff .£1000 to the charity of the winners choice.
Jim Hunt is probably one of the biggest CON men on Arctic sea ice there has ever been.
No wonder you are so easily CONNED by his lies and deceitful mis-information.
It certainly is a BIG CON of a web site.
I don’t fear for the crews. ’24 nautical miles from Pevek,’ and ice thick enough to trap an icebreaker, means they can be reached by snowmobile in an hour.
“Vessels could be marooned ‘for a week’”
Don’t know how they know that, but it means this is just a temporary problem, no big deal.
Have you ever tried to drive a snowmobile over pack ice with compression ridges?
I have, many times. Open water is what blocks snowmobiles, not ice ridges.
More Klingons. The ice won’t release the ships? (Cue Twilight Zone theme – yeah, I know, mixed metaphors. Oh Well!
“But the climate remains unpredictable as the four vessels have discovered on their return route.”
Yes, the climate does remain unpredictable. But it was not the climate that got them stuck in the ice. It was the unpredictable weather. Accurate forecasting beyond a couple of days is still not possible.
But, but, but, that CAN’T be ice! The ice is disappearing fast, and it will all be gone by next week!!
Obama promised consequences for the “hacking”.
This must be part of it; that red line along the bottom of the ship is Obama’s. Since the weather (and climate) is so easy to manipulate Obama increased the ice thickness and flow in this specific region.
hummocks are higher than 2.5 metres.
suspect this is the biggest issue.
The report said hummocks thicker than 2.5m, big difference!
90 % of a compression ridge is “root” under water. A 2,5 meter high ridge is probably impassable even for a nuclear icebreaker.
The effects of a storm on ice in summer and winter are very different. In summer when the ice is soft and melting it fragments the ice and accelerates melting. In winter it compacts the ice and can be extremely dangerous since ice pressure can destroy any ship ever built (except Nansen’s Fram which was specially constructed to be lifted by ice-press instead of being crushed). However nobody builds like that now since it had pretty awful sea-keeping characteristics in open water.
We must also understand that those russian icebreakers are navigating a rather different Arctic than the politically correct one of Griff et al. One just has to look at a Russian ice chart to understand the differences:
http://www.aari.ru/resources/d0015/arctic/gif.ru/2017/20170117.gif
Red is multi-year ice.
Red (brown on my screen) is ice that’s survived one summer’s melt, multiyear ice is usually defined as ice that has survived more than one summer.