
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Professor Phillip Williamson, NERC Science Coordinator, University of East Anglia has written a long whiny piece in The Conversation, complaining that the British Government didn’t do enough to silence James Delingpole’s criticism that the Ocean Acidification scare is nonsense.
Science loses out to uninformed opinion on climate change – yet again
Ocean acidification is an inevitable consequence of increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. That’s a matter of fact. We don’t know exactly what will happen to complex marine ecosystems when faced with the additional stress of falling pH, but we do know those changes are happening and that they won’t be good news.
The journalist James Delingpole disagrees. In an article for The Spectator in April 2016, he took the sceptical position that all concerns over ocean acidification are unjustified “alarmism” and that the scientific study of this non-problem is a waste of money. He concluded that the only reason that the study of ocean acidification was ever funded at all was because there was insufficient (and decreasing) evidence for global warming and it acted as a “fallback position”.
Having had the role of science coordinator for the UK Ocean Acidification research programme and being involved in relevant national and international projects for around ten years previously, I know such claims – which Delingpole presented as facts – to be false. I also spotted a range of other errors and inaccuracies in his piece.
…
At the end of a long and frustrating process IPSO’s final ruling was published on January 5 and it doesn’t seem we are much further forward. My complaint was rejected on the basis that the article was “clearly a comment piece” and that it was not IPSO’s role to resolve conflicting evidence for contentious issues.
…
The Delingpole article which triggered this complaint;
Ocean acidification: yet another wobbly pillar of climate alarmism
A paper review suggests many studies are flawed, and the effect may not be negative even if it’s real
There was a breathtakingly beautiful BBC series on the Great Barrier Reef recently which my son pronounced himself almost too depressed to watch. ‘What’s the point?’ said Boy. ‘By the time I get to Australia to see it the whole bloody lot will have dissolved.’
The menace Boy was describing is ‘ocean acidification’. It’s no wonder he should find it worrying, for it has been assiduously promoted by environmentalists for more than a decade now as ‘global warming’s evil twin’. Last year, no fewer than 600 academic papers were published on the subject, so it must be serious, right?
First referenced in a peer-reviewed study in Nature in 2003, it has since been endorsed by scientists from numerous learned institutions including the Royal Society, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the IPCC. Even the great David Attenborough — presenter of the Great Barrier Reef series — has vouched for its authenticity: ‘If the temperature rises up by two degrees and the acidity by a measurable amount, lots of species of coral will die out. Quite what happens then is anybody’s guess. But it won’t be good.’
No indeed. Ocean acidification is the terrifying threat whereby all that man-made CO2 we’ve been pumping into the atmosphere may react with the sea to form a sort of giant acid bath. First it will kill off all the calcified marine life, such as shellfish, corals and plankton. Then it will destroy all the species that depend on it — causing an almighty mass extinction which will wipe out the fishing industry and turn our oceans into a barren zone of death.
Or so runs the scaremongering theory. The reality may be rather more prosaic. Ocean acidification — the evidence increasingly suggests — is a trivial, misleadingly named, and not remotely worrying phenomenon which has been hyped up beyond all measure for political, ideological and financial reasons.
…
The key findings of the ruling;
Findings of the Complaints Committee
19. The article was written in the first person, and sought to challenge what it made clear was the consensus view on ocean acidification. Before the article set out its criticisms, it referred to there being an extensive academic literature on the subject, and made clear that the theory had been endorsed by scientists from a number of institutions. The article referred to the author as being one of a group of “sceptics”, and a “denier”, and the final sentence of the article suggested it was “time our supposed ‘conspiracy theories’ were taken more seriously”. The article was clearly a comment piece, in which the author was expressing sceptical views on ocean acidification, and describing sceptical views expressed by others, that were contrary to the academic consensus. The Committee’s role is not to make findings of fact or to resolve conflicting evidence in relation to matters under debate. Rather, it assesses the care taken not to publish inaccurate, misleading or distorted information, and establishes whether a distinction is clearly made between comment, conjecture and fact, in determining whether the Code has been breached.
20. The Committee noted the complainant’s position that no experts in the field had expressed concern that ocean acidification could cause a “mass extinction”. However, it was not in dispute that many considered ocean acidification to be a matter of concern, and some believed it posed a serious threat to marine life. In this context, the claims the article made in support of its position that it was a “scaremongering” theory were not significantly misleading. The Committee noted the complainant’s position that the evidence did not “increasingly suggest”, that ocean acidification was “trivial”. The article went on to make clear what this evidence was, which the author was entitled to select in support of his position. In addition, the article made clear that this view was contrary to the consensus. The article was not misleading on this point.
21. The Committee noted the complainant’s position that the article misrepresented the paper reviewing the academic literature on ocean acidification. It was not misleading to claim that the paper was a “review of all the papers published on [ocean acidification]”, in circumstances where the paper described itself as “providing a brief overview of the history of research on [ocean acidification]”. The paper in question did refer to there being a publication bias towards papers which report negative effects of ocean acidification, and referred to a paper which highlighted methodological problems in research in the area. The manner in which the article presented the author’s interpretation of the paper was not significantly misleading.
22. The article reported that two named individuals had omitted historical data on oceanic pH from their research on ocean acidification, but that another named individual had incorporated this data into his own chart. The fact that the article misdated one of the charts referred to in this debate was not a significant inaccuracy in this context. While the Committee noted that the complainant agreed with the decision to omit this data, such that he considered the conclusions derived from its use to be invalid, the article was not a significantly misleading report of this scientific debate. It was not significantly misleading for the article to express the view that the omission of this data represented a flaw.
23. In support of the position that ocean acidification “wouldn’t be a disaster”, the article referred to reasons put forward by Patrick Moore. The Committee noted that the complainant disagreed with these reasons, and referred to research by other scientists which suggested that ocean acidification would harm the marine eco-system. The article had previously made clear that many were concerned by the possible consequences of ocean acidification, and it was not misleading for it to describe the alternative point of view, as put forward by Mr Moore. It was not disputed that this individual had been involved in the early days of Greenpeace movement, and whether or not he was “co-founder” was not significant in the context of the article.
24. It was not in dispute that the ocean acidification research programme had received public funding. Which government department had provided this funding, and whether it was provided directly, or via a research council, was not significant. The article’s claim that it looked “increasingly to be the case” that global warming theory was a “busted flush”, the claims about the reasons why research has been conducted on ocean acidification, and the claim about the ease with which the issue of ocean acidification could have been “resolved”, were matters of comment, and were clearly presented as the author’s opinion. The Committee did not establish that the article failed to clearly distinguish between comment and fact. It did not establish that the article contained any significant inaccuracies or misleading statements, such as to demonstrate a failure to take care over the accuracy of the article under the terms of Clause 1 (i), or such as to require correction under the terms of Clause 1 (ii). There was no breach of Clause 1.
Read more: https://www.ipso.co.uk/rulings-and-resolution-statements/ruling/?id=08168-16
In my opinion this entire sorry episode goes straight to the heart of the difference between the way alarmists like Williamson see the world, and the way normal people view the world.
Alarmists seem to want their models, theories and opinions to be accepted as established fact. But the reality is their shaky theories are full of poorly supported conjecture and extrapolation.
Nothing bad has happened to the oceans due to alleged ocean acidification, and given vast and rapidly changing natural variations in ocean pH in key marine environments such as continental shelves, it seems unlikely that any plausible change in average ocean pH will ever have any noticeable impact on marine ecosystems.
Can we put some hard numbers into this? The surface oceanic CO2 level in the 1970’s was 2012 micromoles of CO2 per kilogram of seawater, according to the GEOSECS program, which actually went out and measured CO2 levels. (This, to my knowledge, is the last time anyone actually went out and did a thorough measurement across the major oceans at all depths.) Atmospheric level at the time was about 330 ppm by volume. Converting the atmospheric figure to a concentration by weight, the oceanic/atmospheric ratio of CO2 concentration at the time works out to about 147:1.
Since that time the atmospheric level has increased to 400 ppm, i.e. about a 20% increase. Since the oceanic concentration is so much greater, the effect on it of this increase would be minimal, significantly less than a 1% change.
The oceanic pH was measured by GEOSECS to be in the region of 8.0, but varied significantly from place to place and time to time. If it maintained a comfortably alkaline pH with such a relatively massive amount of CO2, the effect on its pH with such a minor increase in CO2 levels would be drowned (pun intended) by the normal variation in pH. In effect, looking for pH changes in the ocean due to atmospheric CO2 changes is looking for a very small signal drowned in noise. I suspect very few of the oceanic acidification mavens have any experience in dealing with very small signal-to-noise ratios.
The whole concept of ocean acidification may have arisen from an egregious numerical error in a technical paper by Takahashi et al. (https://dge.carnegiescience.edu/SCOPE/SCOPE_16/SCOPE_16_1.5.07_Takahashi_271-286.pdf) written at the end of the GEOSECS program. In this paper they calculated the average CO2 concentration in the world’s oceans then multiplied this number by the volume of the oceans to obtain the total CO2 content. However, they figure they used for the volume of the oceans was 1370 cu.km, (see p.279 of the paper) whereas the actual figure is 1370,000,000 cu.km, so their figure for the total CO2 content was too low by a factor of a million. To compound this error, the erroneous total CO2 content was given in the summary at the top of the paper but not the (correct) average concentration.
Based on this erroneous figure, the atmosphere contains about 20,000 times as much CO2 as the oceans, so it would be reasonable to assume that any increase in atmospheric CO2 would have a significant effect on oceanic pH. However, put the missing factor of a million back in and the whole problem disappears.
Roger,
Besides the (possible?) calculation error, you need to make a differentiation between the ocean “mixed layer”, the upper few hundred meters of the ocean in direct contact with the atmosphere by wind and waves, and the deep oceans which are quite isolated from the atmosphere. The exchanges of the surface are fast: half life time less than a year, while the deep oceans – atmosphere exchanges have half life times of ~35 years.
While the deep oceans have a carbon content of ~28,000 Gt, the surface has only ~1,000 GtC, comparable to the atmosphere at ~800 GtC. Due to buffer chemistry, a change of 100% in the atmosphere only gives a change of 10% in the ocean surface and a small change in pH. That is measured at a few fixed stations over the past decades. That makes that the surface is readily saturated.
The absorption by the total oceans is near unlimited and indeed all human emissions up to now would give some 1% increase in the deep oceans and atmosphere when back in equilibrium, but because of the limited exchange fluxes, that will take a lot of time…
What would happen if CO2 levels went the other way and decreased? How would carbonate based shells be grown? How would seaweed grow without CO2? An ocean without CO2 would be in much worse shape. Adding CO2 to sea water is like adding CO2 to a greenhouse, the algae, plankton and innumerable other CO2 dependent creatures would be very thankful.
I don’t think we have to worry about that. The oceans are where the vast bulk of CO2 resides, and anything that happens in the atmosphere isn’t going to change it.
If they were serious about this they would study highly productive estuaries and highly reduced sediments, both which are full of life. Organisms have ways of either walling off or modifying the environment either externally or internally. As noted above acid rivers can affect low salinities, but salt water chemistry still dominates. I recall measuring 6.9. There are a few papers on this, but historically not much interest. Would like to see a correlation attempted between productivity or just biomass against both pH concentrations and variations. It would be misleading, but perhaps instructive.
We’re all doomed.
Ocean ACIDIFICATION:
Calcium carbonate bubbling away.
The Oceans look like a can of boiling club soda.
The white cliffs of Dover collapse into the sea only to froth even more.
Oh bother! Oh worry! Oh fret.
That does it, I’m spending my 401K now.
I have a lot of trouble seeing how CO2 is a danger to coral or shellfish in general. The main ingredient used in building shell is CO2. The Great Barrier Reef is built from billions and billions of tons of CO2. Without CO2 would would be no coral.
It isn’t like the oceans are actually acidic. They are alkaline and heavily buffered. Inorganic chemistry says it will be very, very difficult to make the oceans acidic. You would need to precipitate vast quantities of salt.
If anything, the salt that would precipitate if you add CO2 to the oceans is limestone, CaCO3. And this is the principle ingredient in shell. So if anything, adding CO2 should make it easier for organisms like coral to make shell.
It sounds to me like people have gotten caught up in the issue of acid dissolving limestone, but they have failed to consider that this ONLY WORKS works on land, where CO2 and water can interact over centuries to form limestone caves.
In the oceans this DOES NOT HAPPEN. Seawater does not dissolve limestone. Rather, limestone is formed from seawater.
Speaking of acid and corals, came across this. Worth repeating. Always knew some students were smarter than their professors.
“With such low pH levels, it’s a wonder there are still reefs left in Palau to study. But, as Barkley discovered during her most recent trip, these conditions have had no discernable impact on the corals. Nor did the hot-tub-like temperatures appear to have an impact, since there was little evidence of coral bleaching.
Not only were the reefs seemingly unaffected, but certain ones—the lagoon reefs in particular—appeared to be doing well. They were saturated with the vivid, splashy colors that recreational divers dream about, and they sheltered a huge and diverse population of fish. “
From http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/coral-crusader
Honest observer number 1
“Acidification” As said several times before, this nonsensical term for the pH change is analogous to claiming that if one slows down one’s pace it means walking more backwards. And 600 papers scientific written with that terminology! Shameful.
If decreasing basicity really is a problem leading to decreasing calcification in ocean creatures I’m sure they will adapt; just as it has in the past. The scare – that ocean life will be decimated – in unjustified.
Congratulations to James on the free speech point.
On the science, unlike many of the diverse fields related to climate, there are actually a number of researchers in the marine field who are questioning the alarmist claims and are getting published (see http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/content/73/3/529.1.abstract ). The whole journal issue is concerned with the issue and many of the papers are open access.
as a general note, to all of you,
on my experience with pools and cooling towers
[I have had a pool for more than 24 years]
I have noted that pH7.4
I am not exactly sure why.
perhaps a biologist can tell me?
perhaps primitive organisms like acid?
you tell me
last comment came out wrong? puzzles me/
as a general note, to all of you,
on my experience with pools and cooling towers
[I have had a pool for more than 24 years]
I have noted that pH smaller than 7 produces more growth and algae than pH greater than 7.4
I am not exactly sure why.
perhaps a biologist can tell me?
perhaps primitive organisms like acid?
you tell me
@Nick & others
I think I figured it out/
I mean the answer to my own question…
If we talk about fresh water, I think you will find as the pH declines, salinity increases. It is not the decrease in pH that primitive live seems to prefer, it is the increase in salinity and other waste [from humans and factories] that the algae etc. thrive on….
hence, for example, by experience, I have stopped using calcium hypochlorite in my pool, since I noticed that although the chlorine [from the granules] initially does work to kill,
I found that some kind of algae were thriving on the calcium being added to the water.
I must say that I remember standing at some cooling towers not believing the incredible persistence to the right of life by these creatures. I think I tried to add chlorine and or acid to sort the problem… Maybe if I had realized what I know now I could have done something else about the problem….
Hence, the end of this discussion on ocean acidification [we are talking about one or two hundredth of a pH unit], is exactly the same as the end the of the carbon dioxide discussion
more carbon dioxide and acid/salt is better for life
it is the dung that we throw around that actually promotes life…
“some kind of algae were thriving on the calcium”
Use sodium hypochlorite
“more carbon dioxide and acid/salt is better for life “
Which acid do you prefer?
Nick says
“some kind of algae were thriving on the calcium”
Use sodium hypochlorite
“more carbon dioxide and acid/salt is better for life “
Which acid do you prefer?
Henry says
Most algae thrive on sodium as well…
I use the tri-CL-cyanuric acid
compensating pH to >7.4 with bi-carbonate
My pool is always crystal clear.
I am toying with you…
“Professor Phillip Williamson, NERC Science Coordinator, University of East Anglia has written a long whiny piece in The Conversation, complaining that the British Government didn’t do enough to silence James Delingpole’s criticism that the Ocean Acidification scare is nonsense.”
Those hypocrites.
A lot of water bombs and other heavy weponry lies sunk since WWII both in the north sea as in the Baltic Sea.
Seems no problem for environmentalists. Or their ‘marine life’.
Main concern is Boy’s holidays on that touristic juwel barrier reef.