The sun has been completely spotless on 21 days in 2016 and it is currently featuring just one lonely sunspot region.
In fact, on June 4th of this year, the sun went completely spotless for the first time since 2011 and that quiet spell lasted for about four days. Sunspot regions then reappeared for the next few weeks on a sporadic basis, but that was followed by several more completely spotless days on the surface of the sun.
The increasingly frequent blank sun is a sign that the next solar minimum is approaching and there will be an even greater number of spotless days over the next few years. At first, the blankness will stretch for just a few days at a time, then it’ll continue for weeks at a time, and finally it should last for months at a time when the sunspot cycle reaches its nadir. The next solar minimum phase is expected to take place around 2019 or 2020. The current solar cycle is the 24th since 1755 when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began and is the weakest in more than a century with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906.
One other note, the weak solar cycle and the expectation for continued low solar activity this upcoming winter is an important factor in this year’s colder-than-normal Winter Outlook for the Mid-Atlantic region.
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– climate steering is aerosols.
– magnetic flux is just a red herring.
– introducing ‘headshot’ by Leif S. is as sociopathic as Leif can be.
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C’m on. Move along, you can top that.
[calling leif “sociopathic” just moved you from the moderation list to the banned list – you were warned – Anthony]
None of it will matter when the Grand Aerosol Event happens – e.g. unprecedented mega-tonnage being brought to bear.
The actual sea ice shows that the polar vortex is broken.
http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00835/6twet6us5k7y.png
The old scale is much more accurate. Even better is the Layman sunspot count.
No, Salvatore. Om both counts you are totally wrong. You have no evidence for anything like that, except your wishful thinking. Your statements display a profound ignorance.
Leif knows his stuff I never question that. I just see it differently and time will tell.
Another thing is when there are no sunspots it does not matter what count is used.
Sunspot number is zero today
I suspect a linkage between earth’s albedo via cloud formation and the solar magnetic field. There may be several mechanisms, for example cloud seeding by charged particles or cosmic dust entering the atmosphere, modulated by the condition of the solar magnetic field. Cosmic dust can reflect sunlight, seed ice formation and clouds and, if rich in iron, catalyse phytoplankton which reduces carbon dioxide through photosynthesis.
I suspect a linkage between earth’s albedo via cloud formation and the solar magnetic field
There has been no long-term trend [since at least the 1840s] of the Sun’s magnetic field to match the increase of global temperature during the same time:
http://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Magnetic-Field.png
A study reported in the Journal of Geophysical Research claims an inverse relationship between meteor rates and solar activity as measured by sunspot numbers. This fascinating possibility suggests a connection between cooling caused by meteor dust and the solar cycle.
More likely it is solar activity expanding the upper atmosphere causing the dust to encounter the atmosphere earlier…
You could be right, which would support the effect. Sorry, I didn’t include the link.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/JA082i010p01455/references
Meteor “smoke” nucleates ice crystal formation in the mesosphere, creating noctilucent clouds. Nasa claims that these clouds are known to peak at solar minima. This ties in with the modulation of dust flux by the solar cycle. Some climate scientists regard such clouds as indicators of climate change and suggest that the water is produced by photocatalytic oxidation of the greenhouse gas, methane. Perhaps a simpler explanation is that meteors entering the mesosphere frequently bring their own water.
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/aim/news/early-nlcs-2013.html
There is much that has not been properly investigated and I stand by my belief in a linkage between solar effects and earth’s climate via albedo modulation.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110721_particles.html
Dr Svalgaard, we are all interested in understanding the drivers of climate change. Many place most of the blame on anthropogenic fossil fuel oxidation. Others seek alternative explanations such as solar influence. As a solar expert, I respect your rejection of the latter based on your experience. However, it is clear that our best experts do not fully understand climate change or its drivers. Certainly, the CO2 effect raises many doubts while the solar effect is supported by anecdotal evidence. It is probable that the influences are subtle, indirect and perhaps with delay mechanisms that obscure the more direct relationships such as correlation.
I feel that your rejections are more based on the lack of direct correlation and are closed to more obscure possibilities. I would very much like to see your vast knowledge being used to drive speculative theories as an exercise in generating speculative mechanisms for solar modulation of our climate. Any worthwhile ideas could then be subjected to scientific testing. In my view, climate science is bogged down with beliefs that do not match observations. More speculative thinking outside of the accepted norms is required to stimulate the innovation that will move this subject forwards.
drive speculative theories as an exercise in generating speculative mechanisms for solar modulation of our climate.
The ‘landscape’ of possible speculations is vast, so an immense number of them would be false or blind alleys. This makes for a very frustrating search, not likely to lead to elucidation. Which is why I generally refrain from speculating.
I can’t believe how so many see only what they want to see. For all those so sure that the quiet Sun is about to sink us into a mini ice age, then just take a look through all the relevant data on the reference pages of this very website. There you will see that Arctic temps are extraordinarily high for the time of year, sea ice is also off the scale low, and northern Hem snow cover is also lagging. Winter is in fact late and very benign in most of the N. Hem this year – but as ever there are a few tiny anomalies, which constitute a mere drop in the ocean, when viewing the whole. No doubt I am now about to learn about those anomalies by those blinded by their own unreasoned beliefs!
Unreasoned beliefs are not dissipated by reason. They die out. It is a function of the way our minds work. Endocannabinoid production declines after about age 25. That means for most people that what you believe at age 30 will most likely be held for life.
See
http://notrickszone.com/2016/11/04/cold-october-n-hemisphere-snow-cover-reaches-near-record-high-record-snow-in-siberia/
Do you mean that people over the age of 30 are not capable of changing their beliefs, even when sound reasoning undermines them? Seems odd to me! I know it can be a challenge to let go of something dearly held but surely if good reason and the facts stand in opposition, then let it go! If what you say is true though, it does help explain why so many world problems remain unresolved – prejudice in particular….
“There you will see that Arctic temps are extraordinarily high for the time of year, sea ice is also off the scale low, and northern Hem snow cover is also lagging. Winter is in fact late and very benign in most of the N. Hem this year”
YOU ARE KIDDING!
It’s currently freezing in Russia & the Baltic states.
Winter is much colder, much earlier than usual, in some cases we are getting temperatures at end of October/early november which we usually get in January!
Where are you getting your “benign” nonsense from?
Over here it’s far from benign (wife wearing a thick fur coat in 1st week of November, usually only end of december/January!)