Inconvenient: Record Arctic Sea Ice Growth In September

History Keeps Proving Prophets Of Eco-Apocalypse Wrong

image1491

Source data: ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

Since hitting its earliest minimum extent since 1997, Arctic sea ice has been expanding at a phenomenal rate. Already it is greater than at the same date in 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2015. Put another way, it is the fourth highest extent in the last ten years. Even more remarkably, ice growth since the start of the month is actually the greatest on record, since daily figures started to be kept in 1987. –Paul Homewood, Not A Lot Of People Know That, 25 September 2016

wadhams-collapse

One of the world’s leading ice experts has predicted the final collapse of Arctic sea ice in summer months within four years. In what he calls a “global disaster” now unfolding in northern latitudes as the sea area that freezes and melts each year shrinks to its lowest extent ever recorded, Prof Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University calls for “urgent” consideration of new ideas to reduce global temperatures. –John Vidal, The Guardian, 17 September 2012


A TEN-YEAR HIATUS IN ARCTIC ICE DECLINE?

  • David Whitehouse, GWPF Science Editor

It’s that time of year when the minimum ice extent in the Arctic. One common way to look at it is to pick a particular month and wield a straight line. Fig 1 is from 1979 showing the ice extent going down and down, prompting claims of an ice-free Arctic sometime in the near future. It shows the declining Arctic ice cover which seems precipitous until one considers that it is a decline of about 10% by its measure of ice extent in 35 years! Important certainly but not as dramatic as the graph shows. But with graphs like those one needs to step back and consider the context, for it does not show what it appears to.

Screen Shot 2016-09-22 at 15.09.05

Between 1979 and 2015 – the years covered by the graph – atmospheric CO2 levels increased a lot, from 340 ppm to 400 ppm. To put it into context the increase from 1960 to 1979 was just 25 ppm. Fig 1 shows that during this unprecedented increase the gradient – the rate of decline – of the sea ice loss remained constant. In other words the addition of almost 20% of CO2 into the atmosphere did not change the behaviour of the sea ice at all. If one was being strict, based only on the arctic ice data and CO2 information, one would have to conclude that there is no correlation between Arctic sea ice extent and atmospheric CO2 levels! Surely one might have expected the more CO2 in the atmosphere the greater would be the so-called polar amplification effect, and the greater the decline in the rate of loss of sea ice.

As I wrote when looking at last year’s data the declining Arctic ice cover has been one of the most powerful images of climate change and that many who follow the debate don’t look too hard at the data. This results in superficial reporting that does not convey any of the complexities of the situation and as such is poor science communication.

Last year a suggestion (which had been made before) that Arctic ice was more resilient that was thought prompted much discussion but little media coverage despite the research being published in Nature Geoscience by Tilling at el (2015)called “Increased Arctic sea ice volume after anomalously low melting in 2013.” The headline was that the volume of Arctic sea ice increased by about a third after an unusually cool summer in 2013. Reports went on to say that the unusual growth continued in 2014 and more than compensated for the loss in the three previous tears. Overall it was concluded that changes in summer temperatures in the Arctic have a greater impact on the ice than was thought.

With the data for 2016 now in it is time to look again at the claims of an “ice pause.” Fig 2 shows the latest situation using one measure of sea ice extent.

fiftrrn

This years minimum was reached on day 254 (September 10th) of the year (nothing unusual). The minimum ice extent was also nothing unusual at 4.1 million km2, not the lowest and about the same as 2007. Some media reports portrayed this as the second lowest (behind the anomalous year of 2012) and mentioned its comparison with 2007 without making the obvious comment that it was curious in these days of much talk of rapid ice decline in the Arctic that the minimum extent was the same as it was 9 years ago!

2007-2016

Here is the minimum extent since 2007 (millions of sq km) and it is obvious there is no general decrease in minimal ice area, by this measure, between 2007 – 2016 – ten years! Did anyone run the headline that Arctic minimum ice extent has showed no significant change in the past decade? The case can be made that the behaviour of the Arctic ice cover has changed from the declining years of 1998 – 2007.

0 0 votes
Article Rating

Discover more from Watts Up With That?

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

245 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Ardy
September 27, 2016 3:27 pm

In looking at the sea ice minimum in the Arctic 2016, I found this from NSIDC:
‘During the first ten days of September this year, the Arctic lost ice at a faster than average rate. On average, the Arctic lost 34,100 square kilometers (13,200 square miles) per day compared to the 1981 to 2010 long-term average of 21,000 square kilometers (8,100 square miles) per day.’ – http://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/2016-ties-2007-second-lowest-arctic-sea-ice-minimum
Now I am no scientist but something is wrong here. You cannot achieve the growth rate reported by NOOA over September when NSIDC claim major losses. If NSIDC is correct then there are 14 days to get to the NOOA figure.
What’s going on here? Can some smartie pants please explain.

AndyG55
Reply to  Ardy
September 27, 2016 5:47 pm

Here are the net changes from Sept 1 to Sept 26 for the last 10 years (from NSIDC)
2007 -0.252
2008 -0.175
2009 0.028
2010 -0.126
2011 0.185
2012 0.087
2013 0.111
2014 -0.012
2015 0.449
2016 0.528
2016 bottomed out early and is growing fast.

AndyG55
Reply to  Ardy
September 27, 2016 6:11 pm

Just updating with most recent September to date, net growth
2007 -0.239
2008 -0.099
2009 0.126
2010 -0.071
2011 0.18
2012 0.162
2013 0.113
2014 -0.003
2015 0.458
2016 0.638
Man, look at that sea ice GROW. !!!!
Now over 5 Wadhams (NSIDC)

Chris Lynch
September 27, 2016 3:36 pm

So a fantasist and conspiracy theorist is the “leading expert on Arctic Ice”. Tells you everything you need to know about the Guardian as a serious source.

DWR54
September 27, 2016 3:46 pm

“You cannot achieve the growth rate reported by NOOA over September when NSIDC claim major losses.”
_______________
There’s no contradiction. Your NSIDC quote refers to conditions between the 1st – 10th September. The NOAA figure refers to conditions from 1st to 24th. The ice reached its minimum extent relatively early this September, meaning that there has been plenty of time for it to expand again.

William Mason
September 27, 2016 4:02 pm

Article says “the three previous tears”. Should that read “the three previous years”?

September 27, 2016 4:53 pm

Obvious Freudian slip – it’s that “little bitty tear” that let them down:

Catcracking
September 27, 2016 5:05 pm

Anthony, Paul,
Great presentation of the data. I have been watching the Aris for weeks and sending emails to my contacts. This data presentation is by far the best!

Catcracking
Reply to  Catcracking
September 27, 2016 5:10 pm

Arctic not Aris

Patrick MJD
September 27, 2016 5:15 pm

I like watching Sci-Fi movies, esp the older ones from the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s. For a laugh, and to watch something different, I searched for “Soylent Green” made in 1972 with Charlton Heston, a classic doom mongering film. Set in the year 2020, greenhouse gases, heat waves every day of the year, no food, oil or power. Only one tree sanctuary left. 40,000,000 people in New York. Anyway, there is a book dated 2015 – 2019 about the state of the oceans, because Soylent Green was supposed to be made from plankton from the ocean. The oceans are barren. And then the truth is discovered; Soylent Green is People!
All of the predictions about climate doom have failed. Every single one! 2015 was a pretty good year for food production, and 2016 is looking to beat 2015. The world is not boiling hot, the oceans are still there and productive, the ice is still there, not melting away like predictions suggest. The environment is clean.

Reply to  Patrick MJD
September 27, 2016 5:31 pm

How AGW works:
Ignore pre-1970’s warming trends.
Assume 1970’s through 1990’s warming trend is caused by man.
Model 1970’s through 1990’s warming trend to continue indefinitely.
Guess that “projected” temperatures will cause all sorts of bad things.
Stir up the rubes.
Charlie Skeptic

richard verney
Reply to  charlieskeptic
September 28, 2016 3:37 am

Ignore pre 1940s warming trends.
Ignore 1940 to 1970 cooling trend, and adjust data to get rid of this inconvenient fact.
Ignore the tree ring data that shows no significant warming post 1940 and, instead, splice a on the adjusted thermometer record to produce hockey sticks.
Hope that public do not appreciate that there is no correlation either in the land based thermometer record, the satellite data, or ice core data between CO2 and temperature, and ignore the proxy data that suggests that CO2 lags temperature changes and does not drive those changes.
Follow the remainder of your recipe. A recipe for disaster.
Cook on a high over and claim that the planet has a fever even though it is in an ice age (but fortunately for us in the relative mild conditions of an inter glacial).

AJB
September 27, 2016 5:27 pm

Cobblers …comment imagecomment image

gnomish
Reply to  AJB
September 27, 2016 5:33 pm

omg! look at that hockey stick! it’s unprecedented and robust!

Stewart Pid
Reply to  AJB
September 28, 2016 9:02 am

Anyone have the links to these graphs … I looked a while ago and just couldn’t find them. I especially like the top graph.
Thanks.

AJB
Reply to  Stewart Pid
September 30, 2016 11:02 am

The data is here. Same stuff, just different shampoo. Says Excel on the bottle …

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6rBK0BqL2w

Russ
September 27, 2016 5:38 pm

Thanks for the truth! There is nothing scientific about environmentalism consensus.

September 27, 2016 6:10 pm

Mods:
Typo Alert!

“…Reports went on to say that the unusual growth continued in 2014 and more than compensated for the loss in the three previous tears…”

Four lines above ‘Figure 2’.
My assumption is that the author meant years, but used my fingers.

September 27, 2016 6:40 pm

The story of the above comments, Mr. Mosher: There is always another guy with his own weed patch. Beware sweeping conclusions based on your wandering in your own weed patch.

Griff
September 28, 2016 12:33 am

Exactly what is inconvenient about this?
The sea ice starts refreezing in September.
It is the extent and area etc at the minimum which is most important – this year second lowest in the record, lower, just, than 2007, with the ice in a worse state than 2007.
You may note there was a heck of a lot of open water near the Pole to refreeze…

Sunsettommy
Reply to  Griff
September 28, 2016 12:45 am

You are apparently going to ignore this inconvenient fact,
“This years minimum was reached on day 254 (September 10th) of the year (nothing unusual). The minimum ice extent was also nothing unusual at 4.1 million km2, not the lowest and about the same as 2007. Some media reports portrayed this as the second lowest (behind the anomalous year of 2012) and mentioned its comparison with 2007 without making the obvious comment that it was curious in these days of much talk of rapid ice decline in the Arctic that the minimum extent was the same as it was 9 years ago!”
Since 2007, there has been NO sea ice decline.

Toneb
Reply to  Sunsettommy
September 28, 2016 2:10 am

“Since 2007, there has been NO sea ice decline.”
But there has in maximum extent……
http://greatwhitecon.info/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/CT-Max-2016-Final.png
And this is a more certain indicator of AGW at work as it has it’s greatest effect in raising min temps. At night, yes? The long Arctic night, Yes?
Glad you’re with me (sarc)
Can I remind of the science that has shown that the summer melt season is senistive to early warmth and the formation of melt ponds. And therefore the summermelt season is not only much more dependnd on the seasons weather than that of winter, it is also uniquely sensitive to the weather in the eary part of it.
It’s about the albedo you see.
http://sci-hub.bz/10.1016/j.cnsns.2014.09.003

Griff
Reply to  Sunsettommy
September 28, 2016 5:28 am

In a decade we’ve had two years lower than 2007 and 2015 not far off it… and that’s just extent…
Go here and look at the extent from 1979 to 2006 compared with today and tell me that there hasn’t been a step change in the arctic ice state…
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
And you ignore area, age, mass, thickness changes.
Its like saying there has been no change in the amount of darkness between 1 am and 2 am… when the point is, its dark now…

stevekeohane
Reply to  Sunsettommy
September 28, 2016 5:50 am

Yeah Griff, it’s dark at my house at 5:28am too, big deal.

bit chilly
Reply to  Sunsettommy
September 28, 2016 1:25 pm

looking at trends in circumpolar water temps in the top 1500m i would not bet on the extent trends for both winter and summer continuing . it’s getting a bit chilly up there 😉

AndyG55
Reply to  Griff
September 28, 2016 2:53 am

Latest
September to date, net growth
2007 -0.239
2008 -0.099
2009 0.126
2010 -0.071
2011 0.18
2012 0.162
2013 0.113
2014 -0.003
2015 0.458
2016 0.638
Man, look at that sea ice GROW. !!!!
Now over 5 Wadhams (NSIDC)
And NO, the Minimum is a transient short term event, the AVERAGE is far more important.
http://s19.postimg.org/425r9zipf/Arctic_ice_area_trend.png

Reply to  AndyG55
September 28, 2016 9:34 am

AndyG55 September 28, 2016 at 2:53 am
And NO, the Minimum is a transient short term event, the AVERAGE is far more important.

Really, well this year is on target to have the lowest average Arctic extent in the satellite record.

John
Reply to  Griff
September 28, 2016 3:28 am

Griff, please explain why the minimum is the most important. Who gets to decide?

Griff
Reply to  John
September 28, 2016 5:23 am

It is the point at which the (current state of the) decline shows most clearly…
It will for decades/centuries freeze over each winter, even when we reach the ice free summer state…
There is nothing to be shown about the health or otherwise of the ice by the expected September refreeze.

Sunsettommy
Reply to  John
September 28, 2016 7:37 am

Griff,who has been shown a few science papers at another blog,that for long periods of time in the early Holocene,there were little to no summer ice.
He simply doesn’t want to learn, that the ecosystem survived intact through all that, while CO2 hovered around the 260 ppm level.

seaice1
Reply to  John
September 28, 2016 8:45 am

Compare it to a reservoir that fills up each winter and empties to varying extents during summer. If you wanted to monitor changing conditions of water usage and rainfall, you could use the winter levels which are always full, but they would tell you nothing. Or you could measure the lowest summer level, which would tell you a lot.

Reply to  seaice1
September 28, 2016 11:58 am

seaice1, you are so far wrong on your reservoir analogy that I am not going to spend the time correcting your misconceptions.
Suffice it to say, I was responsible for supervising the water and power operations studies of a major Federal hydroelectric system in the West. Like for Arctic ice, you exhibit no understanding of the complexities involved. Or simply choose to ignore them.
Charlie Skeptic.

stevekeohane
Reply to  John
September 28, 2016 1:44 pm

What Griff and seaice1 don’t grasp is that summer ice in the Arctic is a new phenomenon, perhaps even all year. We know redwoods grew at the Arctic circle, can’t imagine much ice then.

sherlock1
September 28, 2016 2:13 am

Dr Peter Wadhams – ‘leading expert on Arctic sea ice’ – predicted in 2012 that all the sea ice would be gone ‘within four years’…
Well, here we are,Doctor – four years later – and the Arctic ice is doing what its always done – thawing in the summer, and then freezing again (this year rather quickly)….
So – your explanation is…?
(I used to live in Cambridge – where they replaced a perfectly good cycle lane with – er – another, more expensive, cycle lane….)

barry
September 28, 2016 3:16 pm

“Since hitting its earliest minimum extent since 1997, Arctic sea ice has been expanding at a phenomenal rate. Already it is greater than at the same date in 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2015. Put another way, it is the fourth highest extent in the last ten years. Even more remarkably, ice growth since the start of the month is actually the greatest on record, since daily figures started to be kept in 1987”
You have to be kidding me. Arctic sea ice is one of the clearest indicators of global warming. For most of the year extent was 1st, 2nd or 3rd lowest in the record and nothing from this site was said.
As soon as there is any chance to mention a narrative on Arctic sea ice that looks like the opposite of what is clear to the dimmest dunce WUWT pounces on it. And this is purely about weather, not climate. The 4th highest extent in the last 10 years? Also the 6th lowest extent in the last 38 years. C’mon, people. Are we trying to spin ‘recovery!’ again? It happens every year, ya know.
This breathless announcement looks more like desperation than innocent excitement, and in the context of near-silence for the rest of the year that extent was tracking very low, the one-sided opportunism is patent. I know some semblance of neutrality is too much to ask for, but does it have to be so witlessly obvious?

Reply to  barry
September 28, 2016 4:31 pm

And CAGWers swooning breathlessly over every bad weather event isn’t desperation, barry?

barry
Reply to  barry
September 29, 2016 6:02 am

Tacit agreement with the criticism: noted. Witless partisanship is always annoying or boring.

September 29, 2016 2:33 am

I wonder if those who claim the reduction trend in sea ice is and illusion, or not a problem, would feel the same way if it were their money being managed by an investor showing the same trend.

Robert
September 29, 2016 3:34 am

Quite frankly the article is laughable, it displays a complete lack of understanding in relation to Arctic sea ice extent. There is great variability from day to day. The important dates for sea ice extent are April and September when the maximum and minimum sea ice extents are established. But, sea ice volume is another matter, the volume of sea ice in 1979 was 12,700 km3, for 2015 it was 5,700 km3, the provisional volume for 2016 is 4,400 km3 rounded up. In other words since 1979 around 12,000 km3 of volume has been lost. That’s rounding up to a very conservative figure.
Freezing has been quick which means that the little multi year ice left has not compacted into larger and thicker areas.

Reply to  Robert
September 29, 2016 11:51 am

and,
if I may ask
how exactly did you measure the sea ice volume/?

Robert
Reply to  HenryP
September 29, 2016 1:14 pm

Henry,
By satellite, PIOMASS
But, to suggest that there is to be a huge rebound for 2017 is like using a crystal ball to come up with a prediction. There can be changes up or down of 10 km2 or even 100,000 km2 of sea ice extent from one day to the next. The trend lines for loss sea ice by volume and extent have been going down since 1979.
It won’t be until 11 months have elapsed that we will know what the minimum sea ice extent will be.

Reply to  Robert
September 29, 2016 1:30 pm

How is it measured?
How is “the volume” of antarctic ice doing?

Reply to  Robert
September 30, 2016 8:03 am


I note that you are not answering me on how much “volume” of ice is lost in the Antarctic?
Could it be because the volume of Antarctic ice is increasing?
Looking at global maxima and minima, I find that earth is cooling.
The solar cycle related to this, Gleissberg, is in fact 86.5 years.
http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/585/2010/npg-17-585-2010.html
So, looking at the sun, our climate is in like it was in 1930.
Two more years you have
http://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/dust_storms.shtml
Go south, young man, go south.

Reply to  Robert
September 30, 2016 8:07 am

or, you could also say,
the weather now is like it was in 1843
http://www.buffalofieldcampaign.org/habitat/documents2/Woodhouse.pdf
two more years to go before the big drought times.
Go, go south young man
go south.

September 29, 2016 2:47 pm

I hate to say this but none of the participants to this Arctic review knows anything about the Arctic. I have already written two comments to straighten out peoples’ Arctic views this week and am getting tired of it. Your basic problem is that you are non-readers. None of you bothered to read my 2011 article in Energy and Environment, volume 22, issue 8. But you are not alone – the “experts” also are screwed up. Below I will go over Arctic history one more time but recommend that you read the article itself for more.
Starting from the beginning, Kaufman et al. [1] studied Arctic history by analyzing sediments in small circum-Arctic lakes. They determined that for the last 2000 years there was nothing notable there except for a slow, linear cooling. But this changed at the turn of the twentieth century when an unexpected heat wave arrived. It caused melting but was soon interrupted by a thirty-year cold spell in midcentury. This lasted from 1940 to 1970, after which warming returned. It is this late warming phase that everybody has been reporting on. It starts in the seventies and no one has any idea of what happened before. Global warming theory based on the greenhouse effect predicts that the Arctic should warm faster than the rest of the glob does. But when models are used to calculate this difference it turns out that the actual warming is twice as fast as predicted by rhe greenhouse effect. To try to resolve this difference the “Arctic amplification” idea was suggested. It predicts that once the ice has melted the darker ocean exposed absorbs more sunlight and speeds up warming. Polyakoff et al. [3] even attempted to discover this Arctic amplification directly but were unsuccessful. As David Whitehouse demonstrates graphically, Arctic warming by 2015 could be traced back for 36 years of steady, linear warming. At the same time atmospheric carbon dioxide increased by 20 percent. .If one was being “strict,” he says, using data based only on the arctic ice and CO2 information, one would have to conclude that there is no correlation between Arctic sea ice extent and atmospheric CO2 levels! But he rejects and wanders off course looking for some alternate explanation which he never finds. He is an examp;e of someone brainwashed into disbelieving that carbon dioxide can ever fail to produce its vaunted greenhouse effect. And when he stumbles onto clear proof that Arctic warming cannot be greenhouse warming he does not know what to do and simply rejects the logic of science staring him in the face. He is not alone – there are thousands of scientifically trained people writing for the climate change movement who also fail to understand the logic of science and end up spouting pseudo-science. In the Arctic warming case the greenhouse theory is out and we need an alternate theory. There are not many choices and I found only one of them that fits: a sudden rearrangement of North Atlantic current system that caused the northward flow of the Gulf Stream to more directly enter the Arctic Ocean. Its cause is unknown and I suggest using some of the 2.6 billion dollars we spend for climate research to find out what is going on. I bet there is more than just ocean circulation involved. There is no doubt now that warn Atlantic water entering the Arctic Ocean is causing the warming. Spielhagen et al. [2] made an Arctic expedition and reported in 2011 that they had made direct measurements of the temperature of Atlantic water flowing into the Arctic. It’s temperature, they say, exceeded anything seen in the Arctic before this. That takes care of that but the mid-century cold wave needs an explanation. It is shown as figure 2 in my paper (Also as figure 20 in “What Warming”) [4, 5]. The most likely cause of it is a temporary return of the original Atlantic flow pattern. It is not out of the question that natire may send us another such cold wave, or, worse yet, bring back the original flow pattern for good. The mid-century cold wave may also have wider influence, not confined to the Arctic. As figure 2 shows its starting point is the year 1940. Looking at NOAA global temperature chart we notice that it shows a warming period ending in 1940. The early forties that follow are shown as a warm peak. But this is wrong because that was the time of World War 2. It was fought in bone-chilling cold. As an example, the opening battle of the Finnish Winter War in January 1940 was fought in minus 40 Celsius and one meter of snow. German troops under Moscow in 1941 froze to death in their trenches and even the Battle of the Bulge in 1944/45 was fought bin unusual cold. NOAA does show cooling but just after the war ends. I propose moving it back to `940 where it belongs. And when this is done we find that the start of WWII cold wave coincides with the mid-twentieth century cold wave in the Arctic. According to NOAA chart the global temperature never reached the peak it had in 1940 until about 1980. The Arctic cold spell ended in 1970 when current warming begins. Allowing for some lag see distinct parallels between the Arctic temperature history and comparable NOAA global temperatures that could profitably be investigated using Uncle Sam’ billions intended for climate research.
[1] Darrell S. Kaufman, David P. Schneider, Nicholas McKay, Caspar M.
Ammann, Raymond S. Bradley, Keith R. Briffa, Jonathan T. Overpeck, Bo M. Vinther, Arctic Lakes 2K Project members, “Recent warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling” Science 325:1236-1239 (4 September 2009)
[2] Robert F. Spielhagen, Kirstin Werner, Steffen Aagaard Sorensen,
Katarzina Zamelczyc, Evgenia Kandiano, Gereon Budeus, Katrine Husum, Thomas M. Marchitto, & Morten Hald, “Enhanced Modern Heat Transfer to the Arctic by Warm Atlantic Water” Science, 331:450-453 (28 January 2011)
[3] I.G. Polyakov et al “Observationally based assessment of polar amplification
of global warming” Geophys Res. Lett. 29:1878
[4] Arno Arrak, “Arctic Warming is not Greenhouse Warming”
E&E 22(8):269-283 (2011)
[5] Arno Arrak, “What Warming?” (CreateSpace 2010)

September 30, 2016 9:00 am

all true
and
correct
but global T is still falling
as determined by myself and Gleissberg & others
The interesting part is that we seem to be cooling from the top latitudes downward….
Hence most people have not yet even noticed it
although last winter around Chicago did look a bit cooler than usual?

Verified by MonsterInsights