Tropical Storm Hermine officially reached hurricane status on Thursday, Sept. 1, 2016, at 1:55 p.m. EDT. NOAA’s GOES-East satellite captured a visible image of the hurricane at 3:15 p.m. EDT (1915 UTC).
The image shows a much more organized Hermine with bands of thunderstorms wrapping around its low-level center and blanketing the entire state of Florida. The image was created at NASA/NOAA’s GOES Project office, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.
A hurricane warning is in effect from Suwannee River to Mexico Beach, Florida. A hurricane watch is in effect from Anclote River to Suwannee River, and west of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line.
A tropical storm warning is in effect from Englewood to Suwannee River, from west of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line, and the Flagler/Volusia County line to Surf City. A tropical storm watch is in effect from north of Surf City to Oregon Inlet, including Pamlico Sound.
At 1:55 p.m. EDT (1755 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hermine was located near 28.1 degrees north latitude and 85.1 degrees west longitude. Hermine is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 kph), and this motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will be near the Florida coast in the hurricane warning area tonight or early Friday, Sept. 2.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 kph) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), mainly to the northeast and southeast of the center.
For updated forecasts, visit NHC’s website at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.
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A lot of this data doesn’t matter. Most universities track storms in terms of Geography. Most people get lost on this data.
What is important is the sink hole numbers will drop. The St. John’s River, Peace River and Kissimmee River Basins are healthy again. The Fresh Rain and river input from the John’s and Kissimmee Rivers will have some impact on the Lake Okeechobee and it’s mass of green algae. This also impacts the coral reefs in the long run.
Hurricanes and tropical storms are vital to Florida’s ecology. News casters worry about surge, a power outage and such. They are who they are.
Sincerely,
Paul Pierett
Hermine has been quickly downgraded to a tropical storm. I am sure the likes of Hansen, Mann and McKibben are a bit disappointed.
Latest 8 AM update shows a hook North off NJ with a slowing of Velocity.
Make sense?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/213134.shtml?5-daynl#contents
Cyclones in the northern hemisphere have a tendency to veer towards the northeast after passing 30N latitude. For Hermine this tendency is reinforced by a blocking high (anticyclone) heading down from eastern Canada, forcing her away from the coast until Monday, as you can see in this GOES water vapor loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/h5-loop-wv.html
Forecasts beyond that are not as reliable. WU tracking models generally show a northeast heading for the remainder of Hermine:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Tropical-Storm-Hermine?map=ensmodel
and cnn put out the call for anybody anywhere to please send them pics of wreckage and personal devastation – but nothing is coming in.
no pics- didn’t happen.
pure hype.
The map linked in the post has NOAA labeling it a tropical storm, not a hurricane, which would be a filled circle.
It was briefly a hurricane, but the wind speed has now dropped (because it is over land), and is once again a tropical storm.
As this map shows, there was a small area that experienced hurricane force winds
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/153527.shtml?swath#contents
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0916S+gif/153527P_sm.gif
>“there was a small area that experienced hurricane force winds”
The map is annotated “From advisories 1 through 21”, so I believe that the red area represents the areas forecasted to have hurricane-force winds, not actually observed or experienced.
AFAIK, there are no surface observations validating these forecasts. The off-shore buoy data would be the most likely candidates, but as pointed out previously in this post, they all show surface winds maxed out around 50mph. Buoy #42036 observed a gust of 75mph when it passed through the eye, but not recorded as a sustained wind speed, necessary to be classified as a hurricane.
At landfall, I saw one WunderMap station reporting 50mph winds. The rest were much lower.
The bottom paragraph, under the graphic.
“This graphic shows how the size of the storm has changed, and the areas potentially affected so far by sustained winds of tropical storm force (in orange) and hurricane force (in red). The display is based on the wind radii contained in the set of Forecast/Advisories indicated at the top of the figure. Users are reminded that the Forecast/Advisory wind radii represent the maximum possible extent of a given wind speed within particular quadrants around the tropical cyclone. As a result, not all locations falling within the orange or red swaths will have experienced sustained tropical storm or hurricane force winds, respectively.”
The NHC graphic is a computer generated guess. They use various inputs to the real time models, aircraft radar, ground radar, etc. But the aircraft are not measuring ground conditions, they extrapolate upper winds down to the surface. Then the NHC puts the inputs into the computer and prints the graphic, with the extrapolated surface conditions. However, the NHC seems to be ignoring the actual surface winds by their own NOAA/NDBC buoys that are in the direct path of the storm. The result is that the NHC is confusing a computer generated model of winds with actual measurements of winds using surface placed anemometers. The actual buoys recorded real winds, and those reorts show one fact. This strom NEVER reached hurricane threshold, either at offshore buoys, or at land stations. The wunderground reports GUSTS, but gusts are not hurricanes. Only sustained winds measured at a certain height above the ground. The NHC should eventually issue a final report on this storm with a real assessment, but the damage is already done. Everyone now thinks the storm made landfall as a hurricane. The real bottom line is that was measured as a 53 knot tropical storm, at a couple buoys and at one land station nearest the point of landfall.
The NHC is responsible for confusing reality with forecasts, and history needs to be reminded that this reliance on computers is becoming more common, and the discrepancy of the models from reality is becoming larger over the years. The clueless media and weather channel don’t care about reality, they just read the “official” NHC advisory and repeat what is says.
Looks like NY may get some of the wrath. And as a result, I predict this will end up being called “Super Storm HERMINE”.
A real borderline case. Measurement / gauge R&R theory would deem this a TC only, not a hurricane.
It’s the first hurricane to hit FL in more than a decade. The US hurricane drought continues, despite the anti-scientific screechings of climastrologist preachers.
If it in fact were a hurricane at landfall.
I was curious about that.
It likely was but I never saw in any of the reports I saw just what category it was or for how long it was an “official” hurricane.
Don’t get me wrong. I almost died in tropical storm Ilya(?) back in the ’70’s. They are bad.
But in the context of CAGW hype and the reliance on computer models, just how bad have things been?
Those who hype CAGW, such as “The Storm Channel”, have been starved for disasters “projected” to happen.
Another thought. TSC has been hyping the weather disturbance for a week or more saying it would become a hurricane.
Someone made a comment on another post that Joe Bastardi said it looked like it would become a hurricane.
The difference?
Joe B said it looked like it would.
TSC hoped it would.
Here is weather underground on this strong rainstorm. Simply having tropical storm winds doesn’t make a tropical storm. In this review of the storm I don’t see any justification for the claim that it ever was a hurricane. Aren’t the winds supposed to be surface winds?
https://www.wunderground.com/news/hurricane-hermine-landfall-florida-georgia-carolinas
That report shows GUSTS, not sustained surface winds. Gusts do not make a hurricane.
People need to learn and understand what a hurricane means, with scientific, methodical definitions so that history can record what actually is happening. Real sustained surface winds NEVER reached hurricane threshold. It’s sad really. The detachment of the media freak show from reality. The tropical cyclone Hermine that made landfall in Florida in 2016 was NOT a hurricane, but almost every fool in the world now seems to believe that it was a hurricane.
Early photos of the actual damage are consistent with tropical storm damage. People have been doing damage assessments from past storms for many years. Insurance companies, engineers and others know what wind damage means and how to minimize costs. It’s a methodical science that looks at and compares damage sustained from photos and examination of known structures, roof shingles, broken windows, downed poles, tree damage, etc etc. to actual winds at various directions and forces. Look at the photos and videos and judge for yourself, yes there is certainly some damage to be expected from tropical storms, and that is what we see in this case.
Fox News is saying Hermine could “regain” [heh] to hurricane strength.
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/09/03/forecasters-predict-hermine-will-regain-hurricane-strength-once-it-hits-east-coast.html
Not likely. She is entering waters close to (or below) 26C, which is the “keep alive” threshold for these storms:
http://i65.tinypic.com/219unx1.png
Interesting, how does one update this for latest information
Looks to me that actual data from buoys and land readings, that there were no sustained winds over 74 mph. Gusts were over that, but that’s not the definition of a hurricane. It was a hurricane on computer models, but not with actual data. Looks to me that it was a strong tropical storm which hit Florida. They are now predicting hurricane strength again Sunday out over the Atlantic…
NHC Poor Writing Skills The obviously below average writing skills of professional staff at NHC is deplorable and inexcusable. The 11:00 am Discussion on Sept. 4th is typical. An 8th grade English drop-out could do as well. This is a very negative reflection on NHC’s public image. Pathetic.
I saw a bit of TSC’s coverage this morning.
Stephanie Abrams seemed to be almost apologizing for their forecast. I say “almost” because she seemed to keep reminding the viewers that most of them had a degree in meteorology.
Mr. Layman here.
That makes me wonder if degrees in meteorology have been for some time been given based on the ability to read a computer screen, not an understanding of “weather”.
Computers and their models are TOOLS and tools only.
Valuable tools. But only a tool for one who knows how to use it AND reach an accurate and reliable forecast.
Electricity still out for about 25K in Tallahassee. Within 3.3 miles of state Capitol were out for about 36 hours, and lacked telecomm for about 72 hours. Lots if trees were down, a few on cars, homes. But the line-men and tree crews made a relatively quick job of clearing up much of it. Slept through much of it, then hiked around the neighborhood clearing small debris.