UAH Global Temperature Update for June 2016: +0.34 deg. C
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June, 2016 is +0.34 deg. C, down 0.21 deg. C from the May value of +0.55 deg. C (click for full size version):
This gives a 2-month temperature fall of -0.37 deg. C, which is the second largest in the 37+ year satellite record…the largest was -0.43 deg. C in Feb. 1988.
In the tropics, there was a record fast 2-month cooling of -0.56 deg. C, just edging out -0.55 deg. C in June 1998 (also an El Nino weakening year). […]
The rapid cooling is from the weakening El Nino and approaching La Nina conditions by mid-summer or early fall.
As promised just over a week ago, here’s how we are now progressing toward a record warm year in the satellite data:
The June anomaly is well below the dashed red line which represents the average cooling rate required for the rest of 2016 to tie 1998 as the warmest year in the satellite record. So far my prediction that 2016 will end up being a new record warm year is not shaping up too well…the cooling we are seeing in the troposphere really is spectacular. Just remember, the temperature anomaly can also temporarily rebound for a month, as it did in late 1998.
From the University of Alabama
Global Temperature Report: June 2016
June 2016 was 2nd warmest June in satellite record
Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.12 C per decade
June temperatures (preliminary)
Global composite temp.: +0.34 C (about 0.61 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for June.
Northern Hemisphere: +0.51 C (about 0.92 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for June.
Southern Hemisphere: +0.17 C (about 0.79 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for June.
Tropics: +.38 C (about 0.68 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for June.
May temperatures (revised):
Global Composite: +0.55 C above 30-year average
Northern Hemisphere: +0.65 C above 30-year average
Southern Hemisphere: +0.44 C above 30-year average
Tropics: +0.72 C above 30-year average
(All temperature anomalies are based on a 30-year average (1981-2010) for the month reported.)
Notes on data released June 1, 2016:
Although global temperatures fell rapidly from May to June as the El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event fades (see attached graph), June 2016 was nonetheless the second warmest June in the satellite temperature record, trailing June 1998 by 0.23 C, according to Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. Compared to seasonal norms, however, June 2016 was the 30th warmest month overall since the satellite temperature dataset began in December 1978.
June 2016 also was the second warmest on record in the Northern Hemisphere (0.51 C compared to June 1998 at 0.60 C above seasonal norms), but the eighth warmest June in the Southern Hemisphere and, despite the El Niño remnants, only the sixth warmest June in the tropics.
Compared to seasonal norms, the warmest average temperature anomaly on Earth in June was in the eastern Antarctic, south of the Zhongshan station. June temperatures there averaged 4.24 C (about 7.63 degrees F) warmer than seasonal norms. Compared to seasonal norms, the coolest average temperature on Earth in June was in northeastern Russia, near the town of Vayegi, where the average June 2016 temperature was 3.40 C (about 6.12 degrees F) cooler than normal for June.
The complete version 6 beta lower troposphere dataset is available here:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0beta5.txt
Archived color maps of local temperature anomalies are available on-line at:
As part of an ongoing joint project between UAHuntsville, NOAA and NASA, Christy and Dr. Roy Spencer, an ESSC principal scientist, use data gathered by advanced microwave sounding units on NOAA and NASA satellites to get accurate temperature readings for almost all regions of the Earth. This includes remote desert, ocean and rain forest areas where reliable climate data are not otherwise available.
The satellite-based instruments measure the temperature of the atmosphere from the surface up to an altitude of about eight kilometers above sea level. Once the monthly temperature data are collected and processed, they are placed in a “public” computer file for immediate access by atmospheric scientists in the U.S. and abroad.
Neither Christy nor Spencer receives any research support or funding from oil, coal or industrial companies or organizations, or from any private or special interest groups. All of their climate research funding comes from federal and state grants or contracts.
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One of the reasons people find this all so difficult is because the media talks to the lay person in headlines “Warmest June on Record–unprecedented!” and the scientists talk to us in geek. I struggle and struggle to understand some fine points so I can explain it to those I warmists I choose to have a conversation with–and when it is so very hard for me to understand, how can I have a dialog with anyone else?
Isn’t there a clearer way to get the point across because “seasonal norm” doesn’t explain the distinction to me.
Shelly –
You are right. It is virtually impossible to explain this to the average person such they can appreciate and take on board the critical points. It is difficult enough to explain for those who study it in depth . Usually these records are being broken by a few tenths of a degree and it is questionable if we can even read accurately to this precision. When we take the entire temperature scale of the globe these margins involve splitting straws
I have said here before that as long as temperature remain relatively stable the alarmists will win the screaming battle – particularly in media, But if an when there is a drop in annual temps for as little as, say, 5 years the general public can switch very quickly and can attack in the opposite direction. They don’t like being fleeced. An example is the dairy fats scare. The ‘experts’ lose a lot of credibility right across the board and people start ignoring any alarmism. How long is the list of carcinogenic foods now? Last I heard it included ALL processed meats
I would simply say to warmest, “the party is no over until the fat lady sings, the predictions made by all the warmest ‘experts’ have been way off track”.
I never stopped eating butter and nice marbled steak 🙂
Thanks for the reply.It really does help. I do cite the fact that the models have been 100% inaccurate but the warmists don’t believe you So there you are. As long as they say, “That’s not true,” you have nowhere to go.
BTW I never bought the butter debate either! I guess I was a trans fat denier.
Shelly – Models have not been 100% inaccurate. What they have got terribly wrong is that they predicted a direct correlation between CO2 rise and temperature. Throughout the 21st century they have been diverging rapidly
The problem now is that some of the data records ignore a peak in temperature in the 1998 – 99 El Nino yet are including another El Nino peak just gone.. By doing this they can display a rise in temperature over the last 18 years
You have very little ammunition with this type of practice going on and being published. What I say to such people you refer to is “just wait Boyo” It ain’t over yet”
The truth is NO ONE KNOWS! That makes it exciting 🙂
Quick, someone code a Surface Historical Inference Temporal-Global Climate Model SHIT-GCM , the past must be updated.
Will 2016 set a new record for RSS? (UAH was done earlier.)
There are many similarities between 1998 and 2016. There was an extremely strong El Nino which caused records to be set in the beginning of each year. Then there was a drop in 1998 and so far, there is a similar drop in 2016.
However there are important difference between 1998 and 2016. In 1998, the highest anomaly was in April of 1998 and therefore not surprisingly, the second quarter of 1998 was the quarter with the highest anomaly. In contrast, the highest anomaly in 2016 was in February making the first quarter of 2016 the one with the highest anomaly.
The difference between quarters 2 and 3 for 1998 for RSS was 0.140. The difference between quarters 1 and 2 in 2016 was 0.245. While this is not as close as for UAH6.0beta5, I will make similar calculations.
There are several different approaches one can use to arrive at the best guess as to whether or not 2016 will set a record. I have decided to give the averages for each of the four quarters in 1998 and the first quarter of 1999 as well as the four quarters of 2016. The first quarter of 1998 will be called 98(1), and so on.
Here are the numbers we know:
98(1): 0.624
98(2): 0.697
98(3): 0.557
98(4): 0.322
99(1): 0.162
16(1): 0.828
16(2): 0.583
And here are my estimates for what we do not know.
16(3): (0.348)
16(4): (0.188)
This gives an average of 0.487 for 2016 putting it into second place between the 0.550 of 1998 and 0.467 from 2010.
Obviously, I could only give the first two quarters of 2016 and I had to estimate the last two. Feel free to comment on whether you think my methods are reasonably good enough or whether you think they are totally out to lunch. I took the difference between the following quarters: 4 and 3 of 1998, and 1 of 1999 versus 4 of 1998. Then I applied those differences to quarters 3 and 4 of 2016 and put those numbers in ( ) above for 16(3) and 16(4).
Then I calculated the average for 2016 based on those numbers and compared that to the 1998 and 2010 averages.
I think you should just use the graphs that Roy Spencer has created already, one is above, the new one is at http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/07/record-warm-2016-what-a-difference-one-month-makes/
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH-v6-LT-with-2016-projection-1-550×330.jpg
Thank you! What would be even better for the point that I want to make is if I could splice July 1998 to March 1999 on to the present graph that ends in June 2016. Unfortunately, all I can more or less do is what WFT allows me to do.
Oops – you were looking at RSS. Your estimate is good enough, I think. If solar activity is involved, half of June 2016 was spot-free. Even if it isn’t, there’s a fair amount of uncertainty in tracking data from 1998, but a lot of people are doing that.
There was huge difference between UAH and RSS from May to June. UAH dropped 0.21 but RSS dropped only 0.057. The sun should have affected both equally, so I think the difference lies in the Antarctic where there were huge variations and where UAH has much greater coverage.
Werner Brozek on July 3, 2016 at 5:47 pm
… so I think the difference lies in the Antarctic where there were huge variations and where UAH has much greater coverage.
Your source about this assertion?
WUWT seems to be on to the same pattern as ever. Show graphs that clearly do show global warming trends. Then simply assert that they show cooling -or whatever. Follow this up with comments by scientific illiterates, who simply assert it is volcanoes – or whatnot – sans evidence, facts, or figures. Barring that, posit a conspiracy. It seems that the goal of WUWT is to convince everyone that AWG sceptics are all cranks. Good job if that is your objective.
DA White
Define how ( in detail ) the graphs that you state show warming trends, do show such, and fully identify such graphs. Until you can site specific science that makes certain comments here out to be made by illiterates – I suggest you are nothing more than a warmist hack – and lacking in any evidence, facts or figures to support your baseless rant. You are nothing more than a waste of bandwidth !
Sorry for being Captain Obvious but given the upward longer term trajectory…
Doesn’t:
Spectacular Drop In Global Average Satellite Temperatures
Needed to be preceded by:
Spectacular Rise In Global Average Satellite Temperatures?
Don’t remember reading that headline here anywhere.
Seriously, what do you expect from WUWT? Nonsensical.
The JMA global surface temperature results are now out for June 2016, and they show: “The monthly anomaly of the global average surface temperature in June 2016 (i.e. the average of the near-surface air temperature over land and the SST) was +0.41°C above the 1981-2010 average (+0.76°C above the 20th century average), and was the warmest since 1891. This is a little higher than the satellite result. Most importantly is doesn’t show any real cooling from the long term trend for June. You can see the results here: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/jun_wld.html