Yet another Jetset Climate Conference – in San Diego

Green Pass
Nobody seems to mind, if a “Green” clocks up a lot of air miles.

Guest Essay by Eric Worrall

These things are proliferating, going viral somehow – the American Association for the Advancement of Science just hosted an international climate conference in San Diego.

Geophysicist Peter Ward, who worked for the U.S. Geological Survey for nearly three decades, discussed warming global temperatures during his Wednesday session.

“There’s a very interesting correlation between warming and volcanism at the end of the last ice age,” Ward said.

He said the past two years of record warmth can be attributed to more than greenhouse gases. Ward blames ozone depletion caused by the Bardarbunga volcano eruption in Iceland in September 2014.

“It was the biggest flow of basalt that’s been observed since 1783,” Ward said. “Now that’s good news, because if it’s Baroarbunga that’s causing the warming, next year we can expect it to be getting cooler again.”

Read more: http://www.kpbs.org/news/2016/jun/15/scientists-gather-san-diego-talk-global-warming/

Here I was thinking Volcanoes had a cooling effect. Settled science anyone?

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simple-touriste
June 17, 2016 3:48 pm

Will someone fix this plane someday?comment image

graphicconception
Reply to  simple-touriste
June 17, 2016 4:04 pm

You misunderstand, it is a green plane. The fans are not supposed to rotate thus saving lots of energy.
OK, there is a bit of a problem concerning how does it actually fly.

Steve Fraser
Reply to  graphicconception
June 17, 2016 5:06 pm

Its got other features, too.
1) no doors. Two should be visible from this angle.
2) no logos or other markings, or passenger Windows. CIA or Airfreight, anyone? Meow ever, no cargo doors either.
3) the wings go into the engine nacelles, and the engines are very much too high to function well with full flaps.
4) none of the required lights are visible.
My thought… It’s a crashing glider…

ossqss
Reply to  graphicconception
June 17, 2016 5:30 pm

Your description is a perfect analogy to Green energy Steve!

Mjw
Reply to  graphicconception
June 17, 2016 10:00 pm

On fairy dust from the bottom of the garden.

simple-touriste
Reply to  graphicconception
June 17, 2016 10:11 pm

Also, no winglets!
Do these guys know about fuel efficiency?

asybot
Reply to  graphicconception
June 17, 2016 10:35 pm

@ Steve,5:06 pm, and aren’t those four missiles underneath the wings?

Reply to  graphicconception
June 17, 2016 10:51 pm

It is a computer model of a plane. If it doesn’t agree with reality, that means reality is wrong. /sarc

Bruce Cobb
June 17, 2016 3:53 pm

I think space aliens caused the recent warming. Which is great, because when they leave, we’ll cool off. Win-win!

Reply to  Bruce Cobb
June 17, 2016 4:29 pm

I take it we’re talking Vulcans rather than Vogons?
Pointman

Greg
Reply to  Pointman
June 17, 2016 11:42 pm

Definitely Vulcans: “vulcanism and lower stratospheric temperature”
https://climategrog.wordpress.com/uah_tls_365d/comment imagecomment image
I have been saying for several years that the late 20th c. warming that got everyone crapping themselves was a result of ozone depletion caused by volcanoes. Glad to see it’s getting some serious consideration at last.

Greg
Reply to  Pointman
June 17, 2016 11:54 pm

He said the past two years of record warmth can be attributed to more than greenhouse gases. Ward blames ozone depletion caused by the Bardarbunga volcano eruption in Iceland in September 2014.
“It was the biggest flow of basalt that’s been observed since 1783,” Ward said. “Now that’s good news, because if it’s Baroarbunga that’s causing the warming, next year we can expect it to be getting cooler again.”

He may be right about the geological record at the last deglaciation but that does not have annual resolution. If Baroarbunga was responsible for ozone depletion ( which I doubt since it was not a explosive stratospheric eruption ), the effects of that will hast for decades on the evidence of El Chichon and Mt P.
In two years time he will come back and say he was mistaken, it must have been AGW after all.

Reply to  Pointman
June 18, 2016 10:39 am

@Greg
Now I wasa wundering, …….. do the area size and location of localized increases in near-surface Global Warming temperatures “track” a path on the surface underneath the Ozone Hole as it grows and shrinks in its wandering here n’ there above the Southern ocean and Antarctica?

Jon Lonergan
Reply to  Pointman
June 20, 2016 2:58 am

What about Vegans?

Brian H
Reply to  Pointman
June 22, 2016 5:31 am

Ozone eats energy, leaving insufficient to prevent Snowball Earth. Too many halides and the hippos and gators spread to high latitudes.You can’t win, or quit the game.

Goldrider
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
June 17, 2016 5:14 pm

Actually, they’re raising us for food.

Brian H
Reply to  Goldrider
June 22, 2016 5:32 am

You mean fertilizer.

June 17, 2016 3:53 pm

That is a new one–a volcano causing warming. As an aside, if the greens are really so concerned, teleconference! (but one cannot party by teleconference!)

Gabro
June 17, 2016 3:57 pm

Volcanoes both cool and warm.
The prompt effect, especially of large tropical eruptions, is to cool. Ditto Laki in 1783. But longer term effects can include slight warming, particularly from extratropical eruptions.

Duster
Reply to  Gabro
June 17, 2016 8:50 pm

I am inclined to take WIllis Eschenbach’s observations about the difficulty of correlating cooling events and volcanism seriously. The cooling from volcanic eruptions might very well be as “real” as warming from CO2, logical, founded on sound physical observations, but not well demonstrated empirically outside of a laboratory.

Greg
Reply to  Duster
June 18, 2016 1:34 am

The initial cooling of lower climate system and contemporaneous intiail warming of the lower stratosphere is clear enough. Here TLS is inverted to see the similarity:comment image
What mainstream has yet to recognise is that it does not end there. There is an opposing effect in the decade following which leads to a net cooling of TLS and a net warming of the surface temperatures.
AGW is a false attribution problem, caused by simplistic analyses which are obsessed with fitting straight lines to every climate variable in an attempt to support of foregone outcome.
Some of this is doubtless due to ozone depletion but also likely flushing out of anthropogenic pollutants from the stratosphere along with the volcanic aerosols, leaving a more transparent stratosphere and more energy making it into the lower climate system.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Duster
June 18, 2016 2:11 pm

Duster,
This is the 200th-year anniversary of “The Year Without a Summer” in New England, resulting from the eruption of Mt. Tambora.

SMC
June 17, 2016 3:59 pm

Isn’t there speculation “The Blob” was caused by a volcanic eruption on the Juan de Fuca plate?

TA
Reply to  SMC
June 18, 2016 6:34 am

There is speculation to that effect. The counter argument was that no volcanic activity in the area produced enough heat to power the blob.

SMC
Reply to  TA
June 18, 2016 9:04 am

Hmmm… I seem to remember some back of the napkin calculations that implied enough energy was released to power the blob. Has there been any more formal study done?

TA
Reply to  SMC
June 18, 2016 2:31 pm

” Has there been any more formal study done?”
Not that I am aware of.

G. Karst
June 17, 2016 4:05 pm

“Now that’s good news, because if it’s Baroarbunga that’s causing the warming, next year we can expect it to be getting cooler again.”
These are the ONLY people, in all history, who believe a colder climate, would be more benificial to mankind. Dumb animals know that cold kills everything. GK

Reply to  G. Karst
June 17, 2016 9:51 pm

Agree G Karst,
Cold Weather Kills 20 Times as Many People as Hot Weather
By Joseph D’Aleo and Allan MacRae
September 4, 2015
https://friendsofsciencecalgary.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/cold-weather-kills-macrae-daleo-4sept2015-final.pdf
Bárðarbunga Bing, Bárðarbunga Boom!

David A
Reply to  G. Karst
June 18, 2016 7:57 am

…”next year we can expect it to be getting cooler again.”
================================================
Using El Nino to La Nina to pad your predictions, simple, effective, and devious.
I am pretty certain Mann was well aware of the coming dominance of El Niño’s, the positive PDO and AMO when he jumped the CAGW bandwagon in about 1980.

Brian H
Reply to  G. Karst
June 22, 2016 5:37 am

I.e., the bigger, the better, for ozone holes!

TA
June 17, 2016 4:14 pm

“He said the past two years of record warmth can be attributed to more than greenhouse gases.”
Some of the “record” warmth can be attributed to bastardized surface temperature data. The past two years would definitely be included in that bastardization.

BFL
June 17, 2016 4:23 pm

Yet another cause of “climate change”:
“A senior Iranian cleric from Isfahan, Iran, said “immorality” among young Iranian women, stemming from dressing “improperly,” is resulting in climate change and causing the rivers and dams in Iran to run dry.”
http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2016/06/17/iranian-cleric-improperly-dressed-iranian-women-cause-climate-change/

emsnews
Reply to  BFL
June 17, 2016 5:12 pm

HAHAHA. And the hussies are turning a cold shoulder to the Imans, too.

RoHa
Reply to  BFL
June 18, 2016 12:30 am

If they ride bikes, that could make it even worse.
http://12160.info/forum/topics/2649739:Topic:1627136

JohnWho
June 17, 2016 4:26 pm

Wait, am I reading this properly:
Someone has addressed a Climate Conference and did not blame “global warming” on human CO2 emissions?
Is this a misprint?

Mjw
Reply to  JohnWho
June 17, 2016 10:04 pm

Relax, he just escaped from a mental institution, soon the will have captured him and he will undergo a nice course of “readjustment”.

Brian H
Reply to  JohnWho
June 22, 2016 5:42 am

He matches ozone swings, aerosols, and temp wiggles quite adeptly without reference to CO2. Correlation does not establish causation, but it is a necessary correlate! |;p

Editor
June 17, 2016 4:47 pm

OK, there’s a bit of progress: someone has recognised that there are things other than CO2 that can affect temperature. Now can we keep the momentum going and get them to recognise that warming has benefits. Let’s face it, if next year it gets cooler again, that could be bad news.

chris moffatt
June 17, 2016 4:48 pm

Next year we can expect cooling? Easy prediction. Thanks to the dissipation of the recent large el Nino system it’s already cooling with temps in this part of rural eastern Virginia noticeably degrees cooler than average for mid-June. But of course that’s just temperature observations so not real like computer simulations.

SMC
Reply to  chris moffatt
June 17, 2016 5:20 pm

Ah but, your cool temperatures are more than offset by the possibly record high temps in the southwest. 🙂

TA
Reply to  SMC
June 17, 2016 7:55 pm

And the high temps will be headed Virginia’s way in the near future. The high pressure system causing this extreme heat is centered over Arizona/New Mexico (which is why it is hottest there), but it will head east eventually and whatever is underneath it will get real hot.
The heat index today where I live was 115.

noaaprogrammer
June 17, 2016 4:59 pm

“These things are proliferating, going viral somehow…”
They have accumulated too much of our tax money. They have to spend it on something, so why not PARTY!

June 17, 2016 5:17 pm

“There’s a very interesting correlation between warming and volcanism at the end of the last ice age,” Ward said.
The settled science said this correlation was reversed, and that the volcanoes erupted more after the ice age because of continental rebound.

Post-glacial rebound (sometimes called continental rebound) is the rise of land masses that were depressed by the huge weight of ice sheets during the last glacial period, through a process known as isostatic depression. Post-glacial rebound and isostatic depression are different parts of a process known as either glacial isostasy, glacial isostatic adjustment, or glacioisostasy. Glacioisostasy is the solid Earth deformation associated with changes in ice mass distribution.[1] The most obvious and direct effects of post-glacial rebound are readily apparent in parts of Northern Eurasia, Northern America, Patagonia, and Antarctica. However, through processes known as ocean siphoning and continental levering, the effects of post-glacial rebound on sea level are felt globally far from the locations of current and former ice sheets.[2]

Paradigm shifts/structured scientific revolutions require re-writing history so when I see these studies I fully expect these kinds of alterations of the past to fit the ghg theory.
And E Worrall is right, Mt Pinatubo caused an initial warming followed by later cooling.

John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia.
June 17, 2016 6:52 pm

According to the Volcano Discovery website there are 31 volcanoes erupting right now (listed on the 16th of June). https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/erupting_volcanoes.html
That doesn’t incude the estimated 20 or so subsea eruptions. That is a lot of warming!
Sinabung is active right now and next door to Lake Toba super-volcano. Let us hope Toba doesn’t start erupting.

RoHa
June 17, 2016 7:39 pm

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again.* All climate change conferences should be held outdoors in January, with Yakutsk and Marble Bar as the venues in alternate years.
(* And again and again.)

asybot
Reply to  RoHa
June 17, 2016 10:39 pm

They have held them in winter at some fine places, like Gstaad and Davos.

Reply to  asybot
June 18, 2016 7:40 am

My favorite will always be Copenhagen 2009.
LMAO

RoHa
Reply to  asybot
June 18, 2016 5:23 pm

As far as I know, apre ski in Yakutsk is not quite at the same standard as Gstaad. Marble Bar is simply not the place to go for winter sports. At least not in January.

Chuck Wiese
June 17, 2016 7:42 pm

It’s “climate change”. In this environmental religion, warming is cooling and vice versa. Therefore volcanoes produce warming when a convenient fit to global temperature trends and likewise cooling if the climate is cooling. Now we have a perfect combination here. If it is warming, volcanic CO2 emissions caused it. If cooling, volcanic ash clouds. And you can use them interchangeably as needed to match the temperature trends, but in the case of cooling, then, of course, volcanic ash clouds are “masking” the warming from CO2.
Perfect. You can’t go wrong. Another excuse for anything.

June 17, 2016 7:46 pm

Gotta say, a few years after the Laki/Grimsvotn events and immediate extreme seasons/famines (esp Egypt) of the mid-1780s, the world (and newly settled Port Jackson) went through lethal monsoon failures and the mother of all Ninos (if mommies can be ninos). You didn’t want to be a flying fox in Sydney or a human in India in the early 1790s.
But who knows? Just as well it’s all settled or we’d all be confused. Imagine if they had climate change back then!

Pop Piasa
June 17, 2016 8:00 pm

Joe Bastardi and company predicted the spike in global temps based on ENSO. Weatherbell now predicts cooling due to a strong La Nina. Mt Tambora’s 1815 eruption did not cause any warming according to historians, why should volcanism be responsible for the past two years of warming which are clearly explained by a rather extraordinary El Nino?

Greg
Reply to  Pop Piasa
June 18, 2016 12:03 am

The initial effect of stratospheric eruptions is a few years of cooling. Due to thermal inertia of the oceans it takes about 7-8 years after cooling trough to settle to the new warmer equilibrium. See graphs above. ( When they get dug out of moderation ).

Brian H
Reply to  Greg
June 22, 2016 5:47 am

Coolists get to use the trough, too?

Martin Mayer
June 17, 2016 8:05 pm

If she self-identifies as a niño she can be a niño.

June 17, 2016 9:16 pm

As for whether volcanoes cause warming or cooling: Cooling is caused by ash injected into the stratosphere by highly explosive eruptions, which is not the case with Bardarbunga.
As for whether Bardarbunga caused warming: According to some sources, the chlorine (and bromine) emitted by that effusive series of eruptions depleted ozone. I doubt this was significant, because volcanic chlorine (and bromine) is mainly in highly hygroscopic inorganic forms, mostly hydrogen chloride which is extremely hygroscopic. When air rises from near the surface to the tropopause, almost always clouds form, and cloud droplets suck up hydrogen chloride and in general inorganic compounds of chlorine and bromine. I think CO2 increase and the recent major El Nino easily account for the recent warming (according to HadCRUT4.4) even if post-feedback climate sensitivity is half of that expected by IPCC.
Meanwhile: ozone depletion had only a minor uptick lately, and 2015 was a bad year but not a record bad year in terms of “ozone hole” area covered by ozone depletion below a certain level, and 2011 was the last year for minimum ozone concentration in the ozone hole to bottom out lower than in 1993. http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Stratospheric ozone seems to be slightly recovering after the 1990s, but slower than predicted due to some offending compounds (such as carbon tetrachloride) being more present than predicted, in part from atmospheric lifetime being longer than originally predicted. Also I suspect rogue sources of some offending compounds, including CFC-12 (AKA R12), maybe also carbon tetrachloride.

Greg
Reply to  Donald L. Klipstein
June 18, 2016 12:10 am

Ozone is taking time to recover because its depletion was never due to CFCs in the first place, so banning CFC is not the fix.

Malcolm Robinson
June 17, 2016 10:41 pm

Peter Langdon Ward is not a warmaholic. His theory is that effusive (basaltic) volcanoes emit chlorine sufficient to deplete the ozone layer which causes warming. Explosive (andesitic) volcanoes also emit chlorine but they also put enough particulate matter high into the stratosphere to counter the warming effect and cause a net cooling. His book “What really Causes global Warming” available on Kindle is a worthwhile contribution to the debate.

Greg
Reply to  Malcolm Robinson
June 18, 2016 12:13 am

The initial cooling only lasts a few years. The warming from ozone depletion lasts decades.
Warmistas only see the cooling and falsely attribute the warming the AGW.

Roney Long
Reply to  Malcolm Robinson
June 18, 2016 5:38 am

Klipstein and Robinson are right about this, because there are two end-members of volcanism. We tend to think of the explosive eruptions, like Pinatubo, which are from the felsic end of the spectrum and put ash and aerosols high into the atmosphere. But the other end-member, basic or basaltic, tends to form very high-temperature flows without a significant explosive component. Therefore large basalt flow eruptions are heating events without the follow-on cooling component. The Columbia River Basalts covered much of Eastern Oregon with basalt flows in the Miocene (14 mya) and I’m guessing it was really hot all around that area for a long time, with or without the ozone effect proposed by Ward. Maybe Willis can model basalt events as all heating and no cooling?

Mjw
June 17, 2016 11:27 pm
ImranCan
June 17, 2016 11:36 pm

“That’s the biggest flow of basalt THAT’S BEEN OBSERVED since 1783.”
With 70,000 km of mid ocean ridges circling the planet, mostly under several kilometers of water, its the OBSERVED part which is the real kicker here. What about all the basalt extrusions that haven’t been observed ? Of course, it’s much easier to talk about settled science by just ignoring everything you can’t see !

James Bull
June 18, 2016 1:41 am

And what came up as the ad’ under the post?
A site to find you cheap Hotels anywhere in the world… That’s the last thing they’d want as we are paying for them to go to these bun fights it should be first class all the way!!!!!!!!
They are saving the planet for us or is it from us?
James Bull

Brian H
Reply to  James Bull
June 22, 2016 5:51 am

The ads, for those lacking AdBlock, are idiopathic (for each viewer).

Carter
June 18, 2016 6:13 am

My theory had always been is that the earth is like a pan of grease. Somewhat solid on the top, not so much underneath. As it heats it starts to bubble (volcanos). Which will then throw up ash, cooling the earth. Sort of a self regulating mechanism.

June 18, 2016 11:33 am

The ‘science’ is settled alright, in the minds of the Greens at least. The Greens ‘science’ is right and your science is wrong.

willhaas
June 18, 2016 1:17 pm

If they were really concerned about CO2 based warming then all such climate conferences would be held on the Internet. The technology is in place. All this unnecessary travel by means that depend on fossil fuels cannot be good for the environment and serves to more quickly deplete the Earth’s reserves of fossil fuels. Shame on then!

MarkW
June 20, 2016 6:30 am

“Now that’s good news, because if it’s Baroarbunga that’s causing the warming, next year we can expect it to be getting cooler again.”
They are setting up to prove that the coming cooling is no big deal, because it was caused by a volcano and hence is temporary. Anything to keep the party going for a few more years.

Brian H
Reply to  MarkW
June 22, 2016 5:53 am

<100 millennia?

June 21, 2016 4:11 pm

To Greg June 18, 2016 at 1:34 am : In your graph you list COADS as sea surface temperature. That is quite impossible because all the El Nino peaks are just plain missing. Plus, those two cool dips for El Chichon and Pinatubo are purely imaginary. Your graph must be for the lower stratosphere because cooling like that does not make it to the sea surface. You don’t know this because obviously you are a non-reader. Read my book starting page 17 to learn the facts.

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