Yet another Jetset Climate Conference – in San Diego

Green Pass

Nobody seems to mind, if a “Green” clocks up a lot of air miles.

Guest Essay by Eric Worrall

These things are proliferating, going viral somehow – the American Association for the Advancement of Science just hosted an international climate conference in San Diego.

Geophysicist Peter Ward, who worked for the U.S. Geological Survey for nearly three decades, discussed warming global temperatures during his Wednesday session.

“There’s a very interesting correlation between warming and volcanism at the end of the last ice age,” Ward said.

He said the past two years of record warmth can be attributed to more than greenhouse gases. Ward blames ozone depletion caused by the Bardarbunga volcano eruption in Iceland in September 2014.

“It was the biggest flow of basalt that’s been observed since 1783,” Ward said. “Now that’s good news, because if it’s Baroarbunga that’s causing the warming, next year we can expect it to be getting cooler again.”

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Here I was thinking Volcanoes had a cooling effect. Settled science anyone?

70 thoughts on “Yet another Jetset Climate Conference – in San Diego

    • You misunderstand, it is a green plane. The fans are not supposed to rotate thus saving lots of energy.
      OK, there is a bit of a problem concerning how does it actually fly.

  1. I think space aliens caused the recent warming. Which is great, because when they leave, we’ll cool off. Win-win!

      • Definitely Vulcans: “vulcanism and lower stratospheric temperature”
        I have been saying for several years that the late 20th c. warming that got everyone crapping themselves was a result of ozone depletion caused by volcanoes. Glad to see it’s getting some serious consideration at last.

      • He said the past two years of record warmth can be attributed to more than greenhouse gases. Ward blames ozone depletion caused by the Bardarbunga volcano eruption in Iceland in September 2014.
        “It was the biggest flow of basalt that’s been observed since 1783,” Ward said. “Now that’s good news, because if it’s Baroarbunga that’s causing the warming, next year we can expect it to be getting cooler again.”

        He may be right about the geological record at the last deglaciation but that does not have annual resolution. If Baroarbunga was responsible for ozone depletion ( which I doubt since it was not a explosive stratospheric eruption ), the effects of that will hast for decades on the evidence of El Chichon and Mt P.
        In two years time he will come back and say he was mistaken, it must have been AGW after all.

      • @Greg
        Now I wasa wundering, …….. do the area size and location of localized increases in near-surface Global Warming temperatures “track” a path on the surface underneath the Ozone Hole as it grows and shrinks in its wandering here n’ there above the Southern ocean and Antarctica?

      • Ozone eats energy, leaving insufficient to prevent Snowball Earth. Too many halides and the hippos and gators spread to high latitudes.You can’t win, or quit the game.

  2. That is a new one–a volcano causing warming. As an aside, if the greens are really so concerned, teleconference! (but one cannot party by teleconference!)

  3. Volcanoes both cool and warm.
    The prompt effect, especially of large tropical eruptions, is to cool. Ditto Laki in 1783. But longer term effects can include slight warming, particularly from extratropical eruptions.

    • I am inclined to take WIllis Eschenbach’s observations about the difficulty of correlating cooling events and volcanism seriously. The cooling from volcanic eruptions might very well be as “real” as warming from CO2, logical, founded on sound physical observations, but not well demonstrated empirically outside of a laboratory.

      • The initial cooling of lower climate system and contemporaneous intiail warming of the lower stratosphere is clear enough. Here TLS is inverted to see the similarity:
        What mainstream has yet to recognise is that it does not end there. There is an opposing effect in the decade following which leads to a net cooling of TLS and a net warming of the surface temperatures.
        AGW is a false attribution problem, caused by simplistic analyses which are obsessed with fitting straight lines to every climate variable in an attempt to support of foregone outcome.
        Some of this is doubtless due to ozone depletion but also likely flushing out of anthropogenic pollutants from the stratosphere along with the volcanic aerosols, leaving a more transparent stratosphere and more energy making it into the lower climate system.

      • Duster,
        This is the 200th-year anniversary of “The Year Without a Summer” in New England, resulting from the eruption of Mt. Tambora.

  4. Isn’t there speculation “The Blob” was caused by a volcanic eruption on the Juan de Fuca plate?

    • There is speculation to that effect. The counter argument was that no volcanic activity in the area produced enough heat to power the blob.

      • Hmmm… I seem to remember some back of the napkin calculations that implied enough energy was released to power the blob. Has there been any more formal study done?

  5. “Now that’s good news, because if it’s Baroarbunga that’s causing the warming, next year we can expect it to be getting cooler again.”
    These are the ONLY people, in all history, who believe a colder climate, would be more benificial to mankind. Dumb animals know that cold kills everything. GK

  6. “He said the past two years of record warmth can be attributed to more than greenhouse gases.”
    Some of the “record” warmth can be attributed to bastardized surface temperature data. The past two years would definitely be included in that bastardization.

  7. Wait, am I reading this properly:
    Someone has addressed a Climate Conference and did not blame “global warming” on human CO2 emissions?
    Is this a misprint?

    • Relax, he just escaped from a mental institution, soon the will have captured him and he will undergo a nice course of “readjustment”.

    • He matches ozone swings, aerosols, and temp wiggles quite adeptly without reference to CO2. Correlation does not establish causation, but it is a necessary correlate! |;p

  8. OK, there’s a bit of progress: someone has recognised that there are things other than CO2 that can affect temperature. Now can we keep the momentum going and get them to recognise that warming has benefits. Let’s face it, if next year it gets cooler again, that could be bad news.

  9. Next year we can expect cooling? Easy prediction. Thanks to the dissipation of the recent large el Nino system it’s already cooling with temps in this part of rural eastern Virginia noticeably degrees cooler than average for mid-June. But of course that’s just temperature observations so not real like computer simulations.

    • Ah but, your cool temperatures are more than offset by the possibly record high temps in the southwest. 🙂

      • And the high temps will be headed Virginia’s way in the near future. The high pressure system causing this extreme heat is centered over Arizona/New Mexico (which is why it is hottest there), but it will head east eventually and whatever is underneath it will get real hot.
        The heat index today where I live was 115.

  10. “These things are proliferating, going viral somehow…”
    They have accumulated too much of our tax money. They have to spend it on something, so why not PARTY!

  11. “There’s a very interesting correlation between warming and volcanism at the end of the last ice age,” Ward said.
    The settled science said this correlation was reversed, and that the volcanoes erupted more after the ice age because of continental rebound.

    Post-glacial rebound (sometimes called continental rebound) is the rise of land masses that were depressed by the huge weight of ice sheets during the last glacial period, through a process known as isostatic depression. Post-glacial rebound and isostatic depression are different parts of a process known as either glacial isostasy, glacial isostatic adjustment, or glacioisostasy. Glacioisostasy is the solid Earth deformation associated with changes in ice mass distribution.[1] The most obvious and direct effects of post-glacial rebound are readily apparent in parts of Northern Eurasia, Northern America, Patagonia, and Antarctica. However, through processes known as ocean siphoning and continental levering, the effects of post-glacial rebound on sea level are felt globally far from the locations of current and former ice sheets.[2]

    Paradigm shifts/structured scientific revolutions require re-writing history so when I see these studies I fully expect these kinds of alterations of the past to fit the ghg theory.
    And E Worrall is right, Mt Pinatubo caused an initial warming followed by later cooling.

  12. According to the Volcano Discovery website there are 31 volcanoes erupting right now (listed on the 16th of June).
    That doesn’t incude the estimated 20 or so subsea eruptions. That is a lot of warming!
    Sinabung is active right now and next door to Lake Toba super-volcano. Let us hope Toba doesn’t start erupting.

  13. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again.* All climate change conferences should be held outdoors in January, with Yakutsk and Marble Bar as the venues in alternate years.
    (* And again and again.)

  14. It’s “climate change”. In this environmental religion, warming is cooling and vice versa. Therefore volcanoes produce warming when a convenient fit to global temperature trends and likewise cooling if the climate is cooling. Now we have a perfect combination here. If it is warming, volcanic CO2 emissions caused it. If cooling, volcanic ash clouds. And you can use them interchangeably as needed to match the temperature trends, but in the case of cooling, then, of course, volcanic ash clouds are “masking” the warming from CO2.
    Perfect. You can’t go wrong. Another excuse for anything.

  15. Gotta say, a few years after the Laki/Grimsvotn events and immediate extreme seasons/famines (esp Egypt) of the mid-1780s, the world (and newly settled Port Jackson) went through lethal monsoon failures and the mother of all Ninos (if mommies can be ninos). You didn’t want to be a flying fox in Sydney or a human in India in the early 1790s.
    But who knows? Just as well it’s all settled or we’d all be confused. Imagine if they had climate change back then!

  16. Joe Bastardi and company predicted the spike in global temps based on ENSO. Weatherbell now predicts cooling due to a strong La Nina. Mt Tambora’s 1815 eruption did not cause any warming according to historians, why should volcanism be responsible for the past two years of warming which are clearly explained by a rather extraordinary El Nino?

    • The initial effect of stratospheric eruptions is a few years of cooling. Due to thermal inertia of the oceans it takes about 7-8 years after cooling trough to settle to the new warmer equilibrium. See graphs above. ( When they get dug out of moderation ).

  17. As for whether volcanoes cause warming or cooling: Cooling is caused by ash injected into the stratosphere by highly explosive eruptions, which is not the case with Bardarbunga.
    As for whether Bardarbunga caused warming: According to some sources, the chlorine (and bromine) emitted by that effusive series of eruptions depleted ozone. I doubt this was significant, because volcanic chlorine (and bromine) is mainly in highly hygroscopic inorganic forms, mostly hydrogen chloride which is extremely hygroscopic. When air rises from near the surface to the tropopause, almost always clouds form, and cloud droplets suck up hydrogen chloride and in general inorganic compounds of chlorine and bromine. I think CO2 increase and the recent major El Nino easily account for the recent warming (according to HadCRUT4.4) even if post-feedback climate sensitivity is half of that expected by IPCC.
    Meanwhile: ozone depletion had only a minor uptick lately, and 2015 was a bad year but not a record bad year in terms of “ozone hole” area covered by ozone depletion below a certain level, and 2011 was the last year for minimum ozone concentration in the ozone hole to bottom out lower than in 1993. Stratospheric ozone seems to be slightly recovering after the 1990s, but slower than predicted due to some offending compounds (such as carbon tetrachloride) being more present than predicted, in part from atmospheric lifetime being longer than originally predicted. Also I suspect rogue sources of some offending compounds, including CFC-12 (AKA R12), maybe also carbon tetrachloride.

    • Ozone is taking time to recover because its depletion was never due to CFCs in the first place, so banning CFC is not the fix.

  18. Peter Langdon Ward is not a warmaholic. His theory is that effusive (basaltic) volcanoes emit chlorine sufficient to deplete the ozone layer which causes warming. Explosive (andesitic) volcanoes also emit chlorine but they also put enough particulate matter high into the stratosphere to counter the warming effect and cause a net cooling. His book “What really Causes global Warming” available on Kindle is a worthwhile contribution to the debate.

    • The initial cooling only lasts a few years. The warming from ozone depletion lasts decades.
      Warmistas only see the cooling and falsely attribute the warming the AGW.

    • Klipstein and Robinson are right about this, because there are two end-members of volcanism. We tend to think of the explosive eruptions, like Pinatubo, which are from the felsic end of the spectrum and put ash and aerosols high into the atmosphere. But the other end-member, basic or basaltic, tends to form very high-temperature flows without a significant explosive component. Therefore large basalt flow eruptions are heating events without the follow-on cooling component. The Columbia River Basalts covered much of Eastern Oregon with basalt flows in the Miocene (14 mya) and I’m guessing it was really hot all around that area for a long time, with or without the ozone effect proposed by Ward. Maybe Willis can model basalt events as all heating and no cooling?

  19. “That’s the biggest flow of basalt THAT’S BEEN OBSERVED since 1783.”
    With 70,000 km of mid ocean ridges circling the planet, mostly under several kilometers of water, its the OBSERVED part which is the real kicker here. What about all the basalt extrusions that haven’t been observed ? Of course, it’s much easier to talk about settled science by just ignoring everything you can’t see !

  20. And what came up as the ad’ under the post?
    A site to find you cheap Hotels anywhere in the world… That’s the last thing they’d want as we are paying for them to go to these bun fights it should be first class all the way!!!!!!!!
    They are saving the planet for us or is it from us?
    James Bull

  21. My theory had always been is that the earth is like a pan of grease. Somewhat solid on the top, not so much underneath. As it heats it starts to bubble (volcanos). Which will then throw up ash, cooling the earth. Sort of a self regulating mechanism.

  22. The ‘science’ is settled alright, in the minds of the Greens at least. The Greens ‘science’ is right and your science is wrong.

  23. If they were really concerned about CO2 based warming then all such climate conferences would be held on the Internet. The technology is in place. All this unnecessary travel by means that depend on fossil fuels cannot be good for the environment and serves to more quickly deplete the Earth’s reserves of fossil fuels. Shame on then!

  24. “Now that’s good news, because if it’s Baroarbunga that’s causing the warming, next year we can expect it to be getting cooler again.”
    They are setting up to prove that the coming cooling is no big deal, because it was caused by a volcano and hence is temporary. Anything to keep the party going for a few more years.

  25. To Greg June 18, 2016 at 1:34 am : In your graph you list COADS as sea surface temperature. That is quite impossible because all the El Nino peaks are just plain missing. Plus, those two cool dips for El Chichon and Pinatubo are purely imaginary. Your graph must be for the lower stratosphere because cooling like that does not make it to the sea surface. You don’t know this because obviously you are a non-reader. Read my book starting page 17 to learn the facts.

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