From NSIDC: Daily Arctic sea ice extents for May 2016 tracked two to four weeks ahead of levels seen in 2012, which had the lowest September extent in the satellite record. Current sea ice extent numbers are tentative due to the preliminary nature of the DMSP F-18 satellite data, but are supported by other data sources. An unusually early retreat of sea ice in the Beaufort Sea and pulses of warm air entering the Arctic from eastern Siberia and northernmost Europe are in part driving below-average ice conditions. Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was the lowest in fifty years for April and the fourth lowest for May. Antarctic sea ice extent grew slowly during the austral autumn and was below average for most of May.
May 2016 set a new record low for the month for the period of satellite observations, at 12.0 million square kilometers (4.63 million square miles), following on previous record lows this year in January, February, and April. May’s average ice extent is 580,000 square kilometers (224,000 square miles) below the previous record low for the month set in 2004, and 1.39 million square kilometers (537,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average.
During the month, daily sea ice extents tracked about 600,000 square kilometers (232,000 square miles) below any previous year in the 38-year satellite record. Daily extents in May were also two to four weeks ahead of levels seen in 2012, which had the lowest September extent in the satellite record. The monthly average extent for May 2016 is more than one million square kilometers (386,000 square miles) below that observed in May 2012.
Sea ice extent remains below average in the Kara and Barents seas, continuing the pattern seen throughout winter 2015 and 2016. Sea ice also remains below average in the Bering Sea and the East Greenland Sea. In the Beaufort Sea, large open water areas have formed near the coast and ice to the north is strongly fragmented due to wind-driven divergence. The opening began in February, continued through March, and greatly expanded in April.
The average ice loss during May 2016 was 61,000 square kilometers (23,600 square miles) per day. This was faster than the 1981 to 2010 long-term average rate of decline of 46,600 square kilometers (18,000 square miles) per day. May air temperatures at the 925 hPa level were 2 to 3 degrees Celsius (4 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1981 to 2010 average across most of the Arctic Ocean, with localized higher temperatures in the Chukchi Sea (4 to 5 degrees Celsius or 7 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) and in the Barents Sea (4 degrees Celsius or 7 degrees Fahrenheit). Air pressure patterns were not particularly unusual, but two areas of southerly winds in northern Europe and Alaska pushed higher than average temperatures into the Arctic Ocean, producing hot spots noted above and generally above-average temperatures across the Arctic. Only over central Siberia were temperatures lower than the 1981 to 2010 average.
Full report here: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2016/06/low-ice-low-snow-both-poles/
While certainly interesting, a record low for a single month may not be an accurate predictor for a record low extent at the end of the melt season, typically around the Fall equinox in September. Arctic Sea ice is highly subject to the vagaries of wind and weather, so its very hard to predict a final outcome. More charts and graphs at the WUWT Sea Ice Page
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what data are they using to make up for the loss of the satellite info starting back in April?
See here:
Dear colleague,
The Sea Ice Index has resumed processing utilizing DMSP F18 data from the Near-Real-Time DMSP SSMIS Daily Polar Gridded Sea Ice Concentrations (NSIDC-0081) data set as input. The DMSP F18 data is included beginning 01 April 2016. This data set still contains F17 data through 31 March 2016.
For more information on the calibration between F17 and F18 derived sea ice extents, please see: http://nsidc.org/the-drift/data-update/sea-ice-index-processing-resumed-with-dmsp-f18-satellite-data/
Access to the data and documentation is provided on the Sea Ice Index web site at: https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/
If you have questions, please contact NSIDC’s User Services Office at nsidc@nsidc.org
Seven months of the year (Sept-Oct-Nov-Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar) LESS arctic sea ice means more cooling – The planet (exposed Arctic Ocean waters) LOSES more heat the less ice there is in the Arctic during these months.
Only five months of the year does the Arctic Ocean gain heat from the sun (April-May-June-July-Aug). And, by mid-August at 78 degrees north, J. Curry reports that the overnight heat losses exceeded heat gain from the sun into open water and the ice began freezing. So, you can really claim that the arctic sea ice absorbs solar energy only 4 months of the year total.
Further, in NO YEAR since satellite records began has a large spring low anomaly been followed by the so-called “arctic amplification” and caused a subsequent low fall ice area. In fact, MOST low springs are followed by a higher-than-spring fall ice anomaly.
And, just to further confound things, a small spring anomaly (more ice during the spring) is typically followed by a very low sea ice extents in September.
And, by mid-August at 78 degrees north, J. Curry reports that the overnight heat losses exceeded heat gain from the sun into open water and the ice began freezing.
Really? Seems unlikely since the sun doesn’t set there until 24th August.
Sorry – But I am reading HER reports from the SHEBA Arctic Ice Camp for the period from 1 April through mid-October …. and that is SHE reported. On August 12, the surface water (surface Arctic sea ice pools) were freezing over each night.
angle of incidence more important than sunshine hours in the arctic.
It is only a matter of time before MSM takes the information on sea ice melt to announce the dire need for action on global warming. Why is the sea ice melt so concerning? It will lead to rising sea levels. If one looks at sea levels they don’t seem to be doing anything. In the end the fact that this may or may not be a record sea ice melt is irrelevant if it can’t be extrapolated to sea level rises.
Never underestimate the Warmist’s ability to take a total red herring and turn it into filet mignon.
Sea ice is floating, so doesn’t contribute to sea level rise when it melts
OT hey Island great Story EM
The problem is that almost every expert cryologist that has come to the fore has prognosticated essentially ice-free Arctic summers within our lifetimes, some in just a decade or two.
They have done that because they are good extrapolators. However cyclical phenomena cannot be extrapolated unless you have more than one complete period and that is not the case with Arctic ice, where the cycle appears to follow the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
So this is probably a good depiction of the problem:
http://i1039.photobucket.com/albums/a475/Knownuthing/SeaIceProjections_zps38qjgzc6.png
Public media cryologists are represented by the red dashed line, while a more prudent IPCC stands behind its scenarios. The reality will probably be closer to the orange dashed line of he AMO model, and Arctic sea ice isn’t going anywhere within our lifetime.
That Arctic sea ice follows AMO can be clearly seen by the significant correlation between both.
http://i1039.photobucket.com/albums/a475/Knownuthing/amo2_zpsju5oxkfp.png
Yet alarmists stick to their long term trends to continue with their baseless extrapolations and are unable to see the signs that a change of trend appears to be on the making. A triangle figure appears to be forming indicating to those with some knowledge of technical analysis in stocks that two opposing forces are acting, one in purple to keep the current decreasing trend and one in blue to form a new increasing trend. Arctic sea ice is getting constrained in its variation, waiting for a definitive break of one of the lines.
http://i1039.photobucket.com/albums/a475/Knownuthing/osisaf_trend_zpsxohjvcbu.png
We will know in just a few years. In the meantime it is more probable that we do not have a record low in summer Arctic sea ice this year. Once again the alarmists have gone to the newspapers too soon. That is counteractive. When summer comes and the record is not broken, more people stop believing their bullshit. They are just crying wolf all the time and the wolf is not coming.
do a gompertz regression.
You can fit any model to any data. The question is whether the values of the parameters will be useful or meaningful.
What is clear to any independent observer is that dire predictions about Arctic sea ice have so far failed spectacularly and therefore very likely to continue doing so. Cryologists like Mark Serreze should stop making a fool of themselves.
Javier — Regarding AMO, upto 1990 the data was collected from the ships moving in that zone but since 1990 the data was collected from buoys. The linear increase shown in the figure may be associated with this data collection system???
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
Arctic sea ice prediction is fraught with danger.
One minute great inroads the next great disaster, for both sides.
I know what I wish would happen but saying it makes it go the other way or so it seems.
Caleb June 14, 2016 at 10:00 am nailed it above
“As a lurker on Alarmist sites I was rather amazed at the excitement and rejoicing.”
If AGW falls in a hole it will be when conditions moderate for several years and it will be obvious for all to see; for long enough for the general public to act on.
Hold on.
Don’t say anything yet.
good advice, because the sea ice conditions this year are in wholly new territory.
Seasoned ice experts are frankly baffled.
Excellent science based comment here:
http://neven1.typepad.com/
Neven.
Ho ho!
let me know when he posts the capie charts. i suspect we may have to wait a while, at least until proper melt ponding gets underway. the numbers at the moment would not fit the asif meme.
bit chilly June 15, 2016 at 4:39 pm
let me know when he posts the capie charts. i suspect we may have to wait a while, at least until proper melt ponding gets underway. the numbers at the moment would not fit the asif meme.
They were last posted June 9th.
https://www.google.at/search?q=Icelandic+supporters&client=ms-android-samsung&biw=360&bih=264&prmd=ivn&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwii-amV0ajNAhWrCcAKHUf9CTgQ_AUIBigB#tbm=isch&q=Icelandic+family+supporters+
Dr. Susan J. Crockford has a recent post that relates to this Arctic sea ice article.
“Last Wednesday (8 June 2016), the US Coast Guard rescued walrus hunters from Shishmaref in the Bering Strait who got stuck in sea ice that is barely visible on sea ice maps”
Link – and watch the video:
https://polarbearscience.com/2016/06/11/ice-maps-vs-observations-in-the-w-arctic-polar-bear-habitat-reality-check/
Great Link. Susan is a breath of fresh air.
Biodata indicates that the Arctic was quite often “ice free” in summer for large period of the first 3/4 of the Holocene.
There is actually nothing wrong or worrying or untoward about the minor, trivial weather and cyclical related losses of Arctic Sea Ice.
This years early losses were mostly to do with the El Nino..
There will not be an El Nino next year, and I suspect we will see a very different scenario unfolding.
It is instructive to look at Ice around Iceland to put things on a more sensible footing rather than the manic panic that the alarmist would want everyone to submit to.
http://s19.postimg.org/nn6acn06r/Iceland_sea_ice.png
Bookmarked. Thank you.
And let’s not forget that NOT ONE of the “Arctic will be ice free by.. blah, blah” predictions from these so-called “experts”, has EVER COME TRUE !!!
A biologist who put together a list of polar bear attacks between 1870 and 2014 told an Anchorage reporter that the Arctic may be ice-free by 2020!
http://www.adn.com/alaska-news/wildlife/2016/06/14/sea-ice-has-been-keeping-polar-bears-and-humans-apart-until-now/
I discuss the biologists polar bear attack data in this post https://polarbearscience.com/2016/06/15/polar-bears-are-not-bloodthirsty-killers-says-biologist-just-dont-forget-your-gun/
Apparently, he thinks the only way that more polar bear attacks will occur in the future is if there is less sea ice in summer but my polar bear attack thriller suggests another scenario is just as plausible…
So much misdirected fear…
as Caleb said on another forum
“This is Alarmist’s last chance. If they can’t get a new record after a strong El Nino, with both the AMO and PDO in warm spikes, and the Indian ocean warm, then their goose is cooked, because the times, they are a-changing. The cooler La Nina is already starting and the Indian Ocean is cooling, and the ordinary cycles will do their ordinary thing, (unless the “Quiet Sun” messes things up), and ice will likely build the next few years.
I think the minimum will be the same as last year. It will be interesting watching, this summer.”
And next year.. I have a feeling the alarmist will need really big rags to wipe the egg off their faces.
Throughout the last 17 years of relative stability in mean global temperature the AGW supertanker has continued to build up steam. More and more governments and reputable media are throwing their hats into the warming ring. Given a continuation of the holding trend or even cooling it will take another 15 years to even begin to slow it down
A stock market analyst recently told me that many investors will stay in declining stocks far too long through a physiological resistance to admitting they made a poor judgment. Can you imagine politicians or idealists behaving differently?
While this a snarky controversy it is nothing compared to what will happen should temperature remain stable or begin to cool. My only regret is that I will not live long enough to see it play out. This is entertainment extraordinaire
Michael Carter
“Throughout the last 17 years of relative stability in mean global temperature…”
____________
Depends what you mean by ‘relative stability’. Relative to what? Counting back 17 years (204 months) from the latest published monthly update for each surface temperature data provider, all show statistically significant warming (all °C/decade (2σ)):-
HadCRUT4 (May 1999): 0.160 ±0.124
GISTEMP (June 1999): 0.193 ±0.128
NCDC (May 1999): 0.196 ±0.119
http://www.ysbl.york.ac.uk/~cowtan/applets/trend/trend.html
In the case of GISTEMP, the rate of global warming over the past 17 years (June 1999 to May 2016) is 0.19 °C/decade; the rate of global warming over the 17 years prior to that in GISTEMP (June 1982 to May 1999) was very similar, at 0.18 °C/decade: http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/gistemp/from:1999.4/plot/gistemp/from:1999.4/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1982.4/to:1999.4/plot/gistemp/from:1982.4/to:1999.4/trend
So I guess you could say that the rate of warming has been ‘relatively stable’ over the past 17 years compared to prior periods of similar duration.
“So I guess you could say that the rate of warming has been ‘relatively stable’ ”
You are talking about GISS and HadCrut, so get it right.
“So I guess you could say that the rate of DATA ADJUSTMENT has been ‘relatively stable’ “
AndyG55
?w=720
“So I guess you could say that the rate of DATA ADJUSTMENT has been ‘relatively stable’ “
_______________
According to Bob Tisdale the unadjusted data also shows a strong warming trend over the past ~17 years:
The difference between the unadjusted global land/sea surface temperature trend and that of GISS since 1998 is just 0.04 (4 1/100ths) °C/decade, according to Bob.
Meanwhile the adjustments made by HadCRUT4 have amounted to a whole 0.006 (6 1/1000ths) of a °C/decade warming!
Yawn.
Apart from the El Nino, there has been NO WARMING this century.. except maybe in some selected Urban zones.
Satellite records show NO WARMING this century, even in the Arctic region, no warming this century before the El Nino.
But you just keep hanging you mythical propaganda warming on NATURAL El Nino events.
its all you have.. and you know it.
AndyG55
The unadjusted global ocean data used by Bob Tisdale in his recent post comes from ICOADS: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/06/14/arctic-sea-ice-sets-new-record-low-for-may/comment-page-1/#comment-2237232
According to this unadjusted data the ocean surface warmed between 1998 and 2015 at a rate of 0.07 °C/decade. It would be interesting to know how ‘urban heat’ accomplished this in places such as the mid Pacific Ocean, etc.
0.07 degs per decade?
Oh my gawd! How ever will we cope? In just 100 years time the seas will be 0.7 degs warmer. The fish will be throwing themselves on the beaches to escape the boiling oceans!
Get a grip DWR.
Maybe AndyG55 should compare the data adjustments performed by UAH when moving in april 2015 from V5.6 to V6.0beta with the adjustments made by GISS in the last ten years.
I know of these differences. Do you?
The fact remains – we are still at(DMI) or just below (JAXA) the lowest ice extent level (2012) in the 37 year satellite record. How is that showing the ice is in good shape or recovering? That we don’t have a continuing melting trend?
There is no way that we will see a September extent which is not in the top 5 lowest, is there?
The ice has not, in ten years, recovered to pre-2007 levels… if this is a natural cycle, why is the ice still going down?
The 2007 level (according to Judith Curry) represents the lowest point reached in 20s to 40s, which is alleged as the previous cycle… we’ve now surely had a longer melting cycle than the 20s/40s one and no sign of an end to it.
Why so much effort to talk this up as a recovery and not a problem?
The fact remains that 37 years is a piddling small time, that just happens to coincide with the upward leg of the AMO as well as the tail end of the RECOVERY from the LIA.
There is NOTHING untoward happening with Arctic sea ice… and EVERYONE KNOWS IT.
The Arctic sea ice scare is very much just part of the AGW PROPAGANDA CON.
It is lower than the 1940s and still going down in age, extent, thickness.
Is that not a new and concerning trend?
why all the caps and shouting if there’s nothing to see?
“if this is a natural cycle, why is the ice still going down?”
You haven’t paid ANY attention to the weather events of the last few months, have you.. DOH !!!
And the AMO is still pretty much at the top of its cycle.
Next year there will not be an El Nino.
Should be fun watching the Arctic sea ice worriers. 😉
If this is only down to El Nino, why is this El Nino causing more melting than previous ones? why is this El nino warmer?
it’s not a problem: geologists found wave – active beaches where nowadays – still with the historical low ice extent – the only thing you see there is ice.not open water.
that was 6000-4000 years ago at our holocene optimum. then the arctic has even been ice free.
climate changes, it always does and will continue to do so. Focussing on warming only is the problem: the earth may go into a cooling cycle as well anywhere in the future and we are not prepared for that.
now climate warms a bit but for how long? what will follow? A good scientist will say “we don’t know what will follow.”
Griff,
The fact that remains is that Arctic sea ice levels are stable since 2006. We haven’t had a continuing melting trend for the last 10 years, just some bad years followed by recovery.
http://i1039.photobucket.com/albums/a475/Knownuthing/osisaf_trend_zpsxohjvcbu.png
Not this year, the year after the big El Niño and record warm temperatures, however we saw it in 2013 and 2014, and we will very likely see it again in the next two years.
It is not going down, as I have showed you. I think it is only logical that if there is no cooling of the Arctic pole, there shouldn’t be any ice grow. For the same token, that the ice is not going down is a clear indication that there is no warming either. Much better indication that the inexistent thermometers of the Arctic.
False dichotomy. It is neither. Arctic sea ice has been stable for ten years. As we did not know that this was going to happen, we do not know what is going to happen in the next ten years. Why should this be a problem? Polar bears are on the recovery since the 1970’s regulations on hunting, and there are more polar bears now than in the last 70 years at least. The real question is why people is being lied about Arctic melting and polar bears. We shouldn’t give a damn about Arctic sea ice oscillations.
Poor Griff STILL hasn’t cottoned on that decreasing Arctic sea ice is a recovery from the LIA and an AMO cyclic effect..
Poor, dumb Griff.
Javier
Isn’t that a trend line in your examples?
Sloping down to the right?
Andy
clearly we didn’t see a steady trend from the end of the LIA till now.
And if we are in an AMO cycle, how come this one shows no sign of ending and is trending lower from a lower point than in 20s/40s?
I might note that extent isn’t everything – ice thickness and age of ice are much, much lower than any point since the 1950s.
Griff,
Following a straight trend in a cyclical feature is a sure way of getting predictions wrong.
A downward trend has to be characterized both by lower peaks and lower valleys. If you can’t see that the right part of the graphs is different from the left, you need to look better.
Right now neither you nor I can predict Arctic sea ice in the next 10 years, but if the situation is the same as the last 10 we are going to have about the same. Why should we get worried?
Javier
Science can predict arctic ice in the next ten years, based on the trend.
It is down…
Griff,
Sure it can do. How did the prediction from ten years ago turned out?
http://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Cf7PaQUWcAApPf9.jpg
If the then trend had persisted at the same rate, yes, we’d have seen an ice free 2012.
Sadly, that ice free day is coming, sooner rather than later.
The climate sets the base conditions, then the weather in the melt season provides the variation.
The ice is in worse shape than in 2012 – giving an equivalent melt season, it would go lower.
What will posters here be saying in that year, or even in a lower than 2012 year?
Griff,
Serreze was wrong then, as you yourself admit. He did not know as much as he thought he did. He doesn’t seem to have learned much since either. Jay Zwally however seems to have smarten up a little and no longer makes doomer predictions about ice.
You are equally wrong now. You are not going to see an Arctic ice-free in your entire life, so you can stop being sad. There, cheer up.
“Prediction from 10 years ago”
Actual quote: “One even speculated that summer sea ice would be gone in 5 years”
One speculated. Wow….
Philip Schaeffer,
Oh don’t worry. Since they all have been going to the press to claim an imminent melting of the Arctic, we have a lot of “scientific” predictions:
– 2007 Nobel prize laureate Al Gore predicts North Polar ice cap falling off a cliff seven years from now by 2014 based on scientific studies.
Al Gore Nobel lecture.
– 2007 Prof. Wieslaw Maslowski from Dept. Oceanography of the US Navy predicts an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer by 2013, and says that prediction is conservative.
Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
– 2007 NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally predicts that the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012.
Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?
– 2010 Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC predicts summer ice free Arctic by 2030.
Arctic ice could be gone by 2030
– 2012 Prof. Wieslaw Maslowski from Dept. Oceanography of the US Navy predicts a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer by 2016 ± 3 years.
US Navy predicts summer ice free Arctic by 2016.
Scientific article: The Future of Arctic Sea Ice
– 2012 Prof. Peter Wadhams, head of the polar ocean physics group at the University of Cambridge, predicts a collapse of the Arctic ice sheet by 2015-2016.
Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within four years
Peter Wadhams impressive Arctic scientific CV
It is clearly demonstrated that they have no idea what they talk about, yet they are paid as “experts”. Any prediction of future Arctic ice has little value and should be labeled as speculation.
Supposedly some very devout Christians believe that planet earth is about 5000 years old.
The graph of Arctic Sea Ice presented in the article is more proof that this is not true.
Clearly, nothing existed prior to 1981.
I was going to say something about the satellite record of ice extent in the MWP, but your sarcasm is more satisfying.
Areas of low longitude near the Prime Meridian are having a bad melt this year. As I’ve been predicting now for the past couple of months. On the other hand, for areas around the Date Line … nothing unusual. Totally typical for this time of year.
OK.
Fine.
Arctic sea ice extents in September will be lower than today.
That means LESS energy is absorbed into the Arctic Ocean from the sun than is lost from the Arctic Ocean by Long Wave Radiation, convection, conduction, and evaporation in the month of September.
So, the result is a cooler earth, right?
The Arctic sea ice is not off the coast of Florida, is it? By Sept 1, the Arctic sea ice is no longer receiving significant solar energy at high enough solar elevation angles to receive enough solar energy through the say to heat up.
Not so… please see:
http://www.carbonbrief.org/five-reasons-why-the-speed-of-arctic-sea-ice-loss-matters
arctic ice loss increases warming, Greenland melt, etc
Of course if your scientific model doesn’t include warming and melt, this is of no interest to you.
Griff
Well, their “Reason 1” on that very expensive taxpayer supported website (more climate change propaganda money to support buying more climate change programs and policies!) is not even correct. And the subsequent Reasons 2, 3, 4, and 5 ALL require an absolute belief in Reason 1 being correct.
Reason 1. Loss of ice means more heat is absorbed
That statement is correct ONLY from April to mid-August.
The REST OF THE YEAR, losing Arctic sea ice coverage means MORE HEAT IS LOST from the Arctic Ocean.
Now, around the Antarctic, or off of the coast of Miami, losing sea ice does mean a hotter planet.
But there are few icebergs off of the coast of Miami.
And the Antarctic sea ice has been steadily growing since 1992. It has been setting record high sea ice area values as recently as June 2014. (Winter 2015 was right at normal Antarctic sea ice levels). And Antarctic sea ice reflects sunlight 10 months of the year. Not 5 months. Over the entire year, Antarctic sea ice is 1.7 times the effect of Arctic sea ice.
SO your statement, your link, are both wrong. 7 months of the year, the Arctic loses heat if sea ice levels are below “normal” ….
The arctic ice will continue to reform each winter (albeit for a shorter period of time). There will still be ice cover over the winter!
so its the summer that counts …
Griff
False. Again.
The Arctic Ocean LOSES more heat to the air, then into space when there is LESS ICE in the winter months from September 1 through March 31. Seven months of the year, that much-hyped Arctic Ice Extent “trend line” you have been brainwashed with ARE SHOWING A COOLING SITUATION.
When there is less Arctic sea ice in April-May-June-July, the ocean heats up. A very little bit. By mid-August, that heat gain is equaled by the increased heat loss into the ever-cooler morning, evening and afternoon skies. Mid-day, 9:00 to 3:00? It does heat a little bit.
But mid-summer Arctic temperatures at 80 north have NOT increased since the DMI began their daily forecast in 1959. Your theory is nice, is simplistic and is logical. But dead wrong in practice.
Less Arctic sea ice (over the whole year) means more cooling.
More Antarctic sea ice (over the whole year) means even MORE cooling per square million kilometers.
Maybe you stop dreaming, and have a look at what real specialists tell us:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover_30y.uk.php
Move with the mouse pointer over the month bar from january to december, and you’ll see how september does look like…
While there is low Arctic sea ice there has never been an actual reason for it to cause chaos, even if it all disappeared in late summer. Only speculation has been the release of methane from the ocean depth, but last time this occurred something would have happened back then, that we would have known about by now.
The Arctic sea ice will refreeze entirely back to normal in winter and therefore be back to square one again. The larger surface ocean area exposed to much colder Arctic atmosphere only increases energy loss and in turn refreezes quicker. In a way I hope sea ice free happens one late summer, only to show it is no big deal what so ever and will not cause a positive feedback. Although I don’t see this happening even this century.
Hoping someone can answer this: For years the area around Novaya Zemblya has always lacked sea ice. Why is that and why there? Is there some undersea activity?
Currents, no Aleutian Chain and Alaskan Peninsula to stop currents, oscillations bringing packages of Gulf Stream waters into low longitude areas of the Arctic.
undersea activity does not affect arctic sea ice
I’m afraid this discussion about arctic sea ice melting how fast is a bit superfluous. In my opinion, watching the temperatures within the entire arctic region is by far more important.
And comparing at RSS the global trend over whole the satellite era with that of the arctic region tells you that the latter warms by over two times faster than the entire globe.
A reason for headless alarmism it isn’t; but it’s worth to watch.
Temperatures in the Arctic cannot be trusted as there are very few thermometers in a huge region with big areas that go from solid to liquid and where a lot of assumptions and extrapolations result in unreliable temperatures that are more the product of adjustments.
Sea ice is a good proxy for Arctic temperatures and that is why it raises so much discussion. 10 years without significant sea ice reduction mean the Arctic is not cooling. Two times zero is still zero.
And let’s not forget that while the duopoly over world surface temperatures is in the hands of US and UK with the result that it cannot be trusted, other nations like Japan and Denmark are also measuring Arctic ice, so it won’t be so easy to tamper with that.