So Constant And Unspotted Didst Thou Seem1
Guest essay by David Archibald
The image of the Sun today is spotless.
This is the first spotless day of the 24-25 solar minimum. Not a great deal can be read from that. According to Wilson, for cycles 9-14, sunspot minimum followed the first spotless day by about 72 months, having a range of 62-82 months; for cycles 15-21, sunspot minimum followed the first spotless day by about 35 months, having a range of 27-40 months. So we could still be six years from minimum making Solar Cycle 24 about 13 years long. Longer is weaker in the following cycle, and colder.
When the Sun goes blank we still have what the professionals use – the F10.7 flux:
Figure 1: F10.7 Flux 2014 – 2016
Figure 1 shows that the F10.7 flux has been in a couple of parallel downtrends since early 2015. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field is still going the other way though:
Figure 2: Interplanetary Magnetic Field 1966 – 2016
Cloud droplet nucleation initiated by galactic cosmic rays has been getting a favourable press again, so let’s see how that’s going:
Figure 3: Oulu Neutron Count 1964 – 2016
Figure 3 shows a strong rise in the neutron flux that has its source in the constant flux of galactic cosmic rays entering the solar system. The count is now higher than that during the downramp of Solar Cycle 20 of the 1970s cooling period – very promising.
Solar wind flow [pressure] is one of the factors that modulates that constant flux:
Figure 4: Solar Wind Flow Pressure 1971 – 2016
Solar wind flow pressure appears to have peaked for this solar cycle. Perhaps the most interesting story with respect to the Sun at the moment is the increasing hemispheric asymmetry. The following graph shows that using very fresh data up to 2nd June:
Figure 5: Solar Polar Magnetic Field Strength by Hemisphere 1976 – 2016
Asymmetry has reached a new peak for the modern instrument record and is still climbing:
Figure 6: Solar Polar Magnetic Field Strength Differential
Polar magnetic field strength is translated into sunspot number and sunspot area. Unfortunately NASA hasn’t updated hemispheric sunspot area since December 2015 with that data shown in this post. They may be too busy on Muslim outreach to do basic science.
- Shakespeare in the movie adaptation of Henry V
David Archibald is the author of Twilight of Abundance (Regnery)
Doesn’t the sun rotate? Maybe all the spots are on the back side right now.
Good point. We could send all the warmies up to check.
Here’s what the sun’s opposite side looks like:
(stereo A in stereo B’s old position.)
http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/20160605_025530_n7euA_2048.png
Evelyn, yes there is a spot on the back that was visible to the naked eye during the transit of Mercury. I was using a welding helmet and could see the spot but not Mercury. It rotated out of view in the past few days.
Ahhh, but the ones supposedly affecting earths weather are facing….
German scientists predict the 200-year De Vries cycle plus cooling oceans (both Atlantic and Pacific) could mean significant cooling by 2100, to levels similar to the end of the LIA:
http://www.cdapress.com/columns/cliff_harris/article_b985f8a5-6870-5b84-8aad-0be108c60e69.html?mode=jqm
Let’s hope they’re wrong.
They are wrong. The 208-year de Vries solar cycle is tied to the 2500-year Bray solar cycle and has gone into quiet mode for the next 1000 years (open circles in the figure). There is nothing to be afraid of the climate for the next two-three centuries. We are in a Roman type of warm period or climate optimum.
http://www.euanmearns.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Figure-6.png
Figure 6. Adjustment of the solar variability model (red curve) to the sunspots groups number for the past 400 years and the solar activity reconstructed by Steinhilber et al., 2012, for the past 3000 years. The ~ 1000-year Eddy cycle is shown as a pink sinusoidal curve. The ~ 2500-year Bray cycle is shown as a yellow sinusoidal curve with the active phase as solid line and the inactive as dashed line. The ~ 208-year de Vries cycle is shown as red filled circles during the active phase, and as red empty circles during the inactive phase. The ~ 87-year Gleissberg cycle is shown in blue. Grand solar minima are named in black, warm periods in red and cold periods in blue. Known colder periods from temperature reconstructions are highlighted in turquoise. A quiet Sun mode during grand solar minima has been proposed by several authors and shown as a black dashed line.
Periodicities in solar variability and climate change: A simple model
From the paper:
Acknowledging limitations in the analysis and very wide margins of error should be proof enough that we humans are trying to distill extremely complex phenomena into an easy-to-follow scheme for the future. Tenuous correlation at best.
The natural cycles are offset by human induced extra greenhouse concentrations, so the Roman and the current period are not entirely comparable. The same set of cycles would provide a base for larger amplification of the warming effect.
Janne, I admit that the Roman and present warming periods are not the same as some factors that affect the final result have changed. Some to the cooling side, like obliquity that has fallen by 0.3°, and some to the warming side like the increase in GHGs in the last decades.
However I doubt they are offsetting the natural cycles. I think GHGs effect is greatly overstated, as natural recovery from LIA has not greatly accelerated, and for the last 15 years we have seen little warming for a big increase in GHGs.
We have seen warming because both natural cycles and GHGs were pushing in the same direction, but natural cycles are reaching their limit and will not contribute more warming. We are still centuries from the cycles turning into a strong cooling force. Due to our present temperature being above what our obliquity determines, we might slowly drift downwards. It remains to be seen if further increases in GHGs can prevent that. Four centuries of global warming are coming to an end. 2015 could be a temperature record for a very long time.
It will be fortunate if we do not have a major cooling event over the next few centuries, as cooler is almost surely always worse for humanity and life in general.
Some have argued that there seems to be a correlation between low solar activity and increased volcanism and/or seismic activity o the Earth.
Is there any indication of this, and would it alter your forecast if there is such an increase?
Menicholas, I agree that cooler is definitely worse for humanity.
I am unaware of a correlation between solar activity and vulcanism, and I fail to see how a cause-effect relationship could be established even if there was indeed such correlation.
We know of the Krakatoa during the Dalton Minimum and several strong volcanic eruptions during the LIA, but that does not constitute any sort of statistical evidence. As far as we can tell volcanic eruptions appear to follow a random distribution.
Between the Last glacial Maximum and the Holocene Climatic Optimum there was a very strong increase in vulcanism that is generally blamed on isostatic movements due to the melting of the ice sheets.
Strong volcanic eruptions have a climatic effect of a few years, and only the strongest volcanic eruptions have effects that expand over more than one decade. Although their effect can be pretty severe, they do not interfere with the long climatic cycles.
Javier the de Vries cycle may not be of solar origin, according to Ian Wilson.
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/08/22/ian-wilson-connecting-the-208-year-de-vries-cycle-with-the-earth-moon-system/
That’s all fine and dandy, but I am a skeptic. We know there is a climate cycle of 208 years from tree rings and now ice core temperature data. We know there is a 208 solar activity cycle based on cosmogenic isotope generation. This is science. That you can find a 208 year astronomical cycle is not surprising. You can find essentially any length in astronomical cycles given so many planets and interactions. This is astrology. Good luck demonstrating how an astronomical cycle can affect climate. It is not too far from demonstrating how astrological signs determine our destiny.
‘We know there is a 208 solar activity cycle based on cosmogenic isotope generation.’
Yep, good point, thanks for that.
There is no evidence of that, Janne. All the Warmists really have is a correlation, and it’s a weak one at that.
I am not convinced either way, though, as to what type of cooling event we face. At minimum, it will probably be several decades-long, though.
Liberal University Campus Eco-Freaks show just how much they respect Mother Nature !! LOL
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/05/26/members-oregon-fraternity-sorority-trash-california-lake-on-annual-trip.html?intcmp=ob_article_sidebar_video&intcmp=obinsite
Sad……
I see no evidence in the link that those responsible are eco-freaks.
look like sun become magnetically one dipole that means there is no + or – its very strenge become simple neutral
hi Pavel
I don’t think there is much chance of that. This is how I see it
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/TIF.gif
Notice similarity in the Northern Hemisphere which is mostly land, the SH is mostly ocean, with huge thermal capacity making it slow to respond.
What is happening with the Earth’s field isn’t independent what the sun is doing in the long term: on centenary scale strong sun – weaker earth’s magnetic field and vice versa.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/GT-GMFo.gif
“What is happening with the Earth’s field isn’t independent what the sun is doing in the long term: on centenary scale strong sun – weaker earth’s magnetic field and vice versa.”
Me thinks that violates Lenz’s Law.
Lenz’s Law is about electromagnetic induction. Sun-Earth magnetic relationship is different. Geomagnetic field has two components: the major one (as far as we know) is not influenced by the sun, it is emanating from the core. Available data shows that the core field moves in opposite direction to the long term intensity of the solar activity.
The second component is much weaker and is a result of the electromagnetic induction. The induced field’s intensity and polarity is directly responding to the magnetic intensity and polarity of the incoming solar ‘blast’.
For simple, up-to-date solar information I recommend:
http://www.spaceweather.com/
and
http://www.solen.info/solar/
They make handy links on your desktop.
You may also like Sam Freeland’s Lockheed-Martin solar lab page
http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
The only sunspots I see are on my laptop screen (I better clean it). I think there has now been a 2 day spotless sun…
magnetic monopole is worst thing could happen for human civilisation ?
[snip – wildly off-topic and offensive religious comment .mod]
[snip – a response to a wildly off-topic and offensive religious comment that has been deleted because it doesn’t meet criteria for this blog .mod]
Let’s start a new internet conspiracy theory and put forth that this is the first sign prior to the whole thing blowing up. George Noory, Clyde Lewis, and the rest of the wingnut late night Woo Woo peddlers will have material for weeks.
Let’s not
Oh, spoilsport…
There could be sunspots on the face of the sun facing away from Earth, although their impact on Earth climate is even less clear than those we can see.
Me thinks the potential of a damaging “impact” of a Sunspot on the earth ….. is akin to the potential for incurring a damaging “impact” of car headlights on a Whitetail deer.
I am pretty sure one spot cluster just rotated out of view.
That’s good, cause like a Whitetail deer that just crossed the road, ….. out of “light”, out of mind …… and no fear of an “impact”.
Fewer sunspots means a cooler earth. Oh, the global warming nuts didn’t tell you that? They know it’s true.
Me thinks as the sunspot area (not the sunspot number) goes down the TSI goes up which should help break the hydrogen bond in water at the air-water interface facilitating cloud formation.
Be careful David……
That was an excellent program, thank you for posting the link!
Solar minimums means us amateur radio guys have to work really hard to get long distance contacts on the HF bands.
“Longer is weaker in the following cycle, and colder.”
Wait a minute. What does the sun have to do with the temperature on earth? The Left tells us that all the climatologists are 97% agreed that the sun is not responsible for climate change, and that it is all President Bush’s fault. What gives?
What gives is you are confusing two different statements. What the Sun has to do with temperature on Earth is well established, in general. Whether CHANGES in the output of the Sun are a major driver of CHANGES in climate on Earth is up for discussion.
The comment section is as interesting as the article! Thank you, everyone.
It is frequently far more informative and interesting, not to take anything away from the headline writers.
This is interesting, but what if anything do sunspots say in relation to conditions on Earth?
Bad radio reception?
Hotter/Cooler days?
More/Less severe weather?
GPS gets bothered?
What?
And what is this about no new NASA data since 2015?
Budget crunch?
Impending B-grade movie plot?
No really. The sun is fairly important, so I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that it does give indicators.
Are changes in sunspots indicative of anything that might affect my day-to-day?
You will know of one such thing next Carrington event.
Let’s have a bit of fun, it’s weekend after all
Arctic could become ice-free for first time in more than 100,000 years, claims leading scientist
Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University :
“My prediction remains that the Arctic ice may well disappear, that is, have an area of less than one million square kilometres for September of this year,”
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/arctic-could-become-ice-free-for-first-time-in-more-than-100000-years-claims-leading-scientist-a7065781.html
(from the past predictions: UK climate scientist and sea ice researcher Professor Peter Wadhams think three of his peers were assassinated)
I read every dictionary I could find, and nowhere did I locate any definition of the word “disappear” that referred to an object or thing becoming smaller than one million square kilometers in size.
I am curious…is this a fresh prediction?
And if so, how is this guy not the human being with the lowest ever measured credibility quotient on the entire planet?
BTW, Tony Heller has a series of maps comparing from this year to and previous years, which seem to show that there is no record low ice year in progress.
Ack…garbled…but you get the idea.
Djokovic, perhaps greatest tennis player, wins French Open.
Djokovic is the first man to hold all four Grand Slam titles at once since Rod Laver in 1969.
Djokovic and Vukcevic clans come from an area of MonteNegro barely 20 miles apart.
Coat tails anyone?
Hi Tom, nice to hear from you.
Man in coat tails looks ridiculous, the penguins are not amused.
Local tradition not long ago was sabre on the hip and shooter on the belt, but the word is now days far too politically correct for such an attire, my grand-dad worn it on every celebratory or commemorative occasion.
Congrats Vukcevic. But he hasn’t yet matched Federer’s 17 Grand Slam titles. And even if he does he is so lucky. Because, Federer is too old, Nadal is too injured, and Murray is too second rate, though I truly admire him as the best Britain has had for 75 years.
By now, Djokovic should be past his sell by date. Borg, one of the greatest, was overcome by McEnroe at the age of 26. McEnroe was overcome by Becker and Edberg at a similar age. Why aren’t the great young players coming through like they used to? Thank goodness for Muguruza, aged 22.
Rich.
Tnx. A right man, at right time in the right game, apparently just past $US 100 million mark in total earning.
Hey Vuc,
Maybe I could challenge you to a couple of sets??
Then when I win, I guess Djokovic would have to challenge me, to uphold the honour of that small region of the ***k**vic clans?
Hi Richard
Right, you’re on. However, due to the sudden reappearance of my chronic ‘tennis elbow’ we had disposed off with the preliminaries. Murray has agreed to step in on a short notice as your stand in, and take on Djokovic again on the Wimbledon turf in three weeks time. We are ready, so good luck to you and your man, you might need it.
all the best
Yes, “Forecasting is difficult, especially about the future”.
what about the relationship between cosmic rays and cloud formation… if there IS a link would this not impact climate?
http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2013/sep/09/physicists-claim-further-evidence-of-link-between-cosmic-rays-and-cloud-formation
Foe daily sun spots and related data check Solar ham.
I’ve been checking it for quite some time. Along about 2/29/16 it appears that their dating at the top of the page got out of step. That’s not something that inspires confidence in all the information under it. So, what am I looking at, today’s numbers or yesterday’s?
Pop Piasa June 5, 2016 at 7:40 am
You may also like Sam Freeland’s Lockheed-Martin solar lab page
http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
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Thanks Pop, forgot about that site. Thanks to Dr. S., I now have a better understanding of what I am seeing when I view a webpage like that.
2 spotless days now.
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Dr Mark June 5, 2016 at 10:42 am
They are working on that. Energetic particles that ionize Earth’s atmosphere are not always solar. Some are GCR and some are other Interstellar (once neutrals) pick up ions, that get re-accelerated by solar processes. (Corotating Interaction Regions CIR’s in the helio current sheet).
Earth orbits +-5 degrees? above and below the solar equatorial plane, within the solar helio-current sheet, sometimes inward neg. and sometimes pos. outward IMF. Highest extent of Earth on plane is summer solstice, lowest winter solstice.
Often times, even in the absence of sunspots, fast and slow solar winds, interact forming CIR’s in the helio-current sheet.
The in coming Interstellars form an “Upwind Crescent,” at 1 Au and a downwind focusing cone on the downwind side of the sun.
Until we are able separate between the two different energetic particle populations that are contributing to the ionization of Earth’s atmosphere, IMHO Total Solar Irradiance still has issues.
You might find the article interesting on the relationship of high energy particles and clouds.
But also the fact that until recently there has been a schism in the science community concerning them.
””the physical science communities concerned with
studying ionising radiation (particle and cosmic ray
physics), and the atmospheric effects of the ionisation
(aerosol science, cloud physics and atmospheric electricity)
have become distinct…””
EDITORIAL
Focus on high energy particles and atmospheric processes
PUBLISHED
6 October 2015
RGiles Harrison1, Keri Nicoll1, Yukihiro Takahashi2 and Yoav Yair3
“”…Voiculescu et al (2013) found a positive relationship
betweenmid-latitude cloud cover and the interplanetary
electric field, which they considered could
be occurring through the global circuit mechanism.
A further suggestion of a global circuit effect was
made by Lam et al (2013), as part of the atmospheric
response to the By component of the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field. Lam et al (2013) showed differences
in the surface pressure patterns between large and
small circumstances of By. A defining characteristic
of the global circuit is its single maximum diurnal
variation, known as the Carnegie curve (Harrison
2013). Harrison and Ambaum (2013) reported
an averaged diurnal variation in cloud base properties
similar to that of the Carnegie curve, in separate
series of data obtained during the polar night in the
northern and summer hemisphere. Harrison et al
(2015) have shown a sensitivity of cloud droplet distributions
to charging of small droplets, such as that
typical of layer cloud electrification induced by the
global circuit…”””
lsvalgaard June 4, 2016 at 8:05 pm
————————————————
Looks like IMF is lower this solar cycle 24 and with an “odd,” northern field.
The helio-current sheet must be “odd,” as well. Like flat as a pancake, squashed like a bug or something. Oh, tilt angle is on, but something is amissing here.
When you get a chance you might want to have another lookey see …
vukcevic June 5, 2016 at 4:33 am
————————————————
This is an interesting graph Vuks.
How does the solar hemispheric asymmetry look overlaid on this graph?
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CS.gif