
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
A week after Warren Buffett broke the green taboo, by suggesting climate change will not be universally disastrous for his business, the overheated activist outrage is still boiling.
The Guardian suggests Buffett won’t be able to cope with what they predict will be an exponential increase in climate damage. Apparently one of the foremost global experts in pricing insurance risk cannot handle non-linear math.
… Of course, Buffett argues that insurance prices can be adjusted upwards each year to take account of new climate information that emerges. But if climate change is accelerating, even a yearly “true-up” in insurance rates will not be enough to protect insurance company profit margins. Current rates will always lag behind accelerating growth in damages and claims. The annual adjustment will merely slow down the widening gap between them. Airlines illustrate just how hard it can be to keep rates rising in step with fluctuations in jet fuel prices. …
Insurance Business America is even more direct in its criticism;
Warren Buffett slammed for dismissing climate change as potential worry for insurers
…
Environmental activists are not buying Buffet’s arguments, however.
Naomi Ages, climate liability campaigner at Greenpeace, told The Guardian that climate risks are unpredictable and that other insurers are taking the threat more seriously.
“Warren Buffett appears to assume that climate change is a manageable risk for insurers, but the damage caused by the increasing frequency and force of extreme weather events associated with a warming planet is set to become unmanageable,” Ages said.
“And unmanageable risks bankrupt insurers.”
…
Here I was, thinking the science was settled, yet Greenpeace are telling us we can’t predict anything.
Perhaps the most telling evidence of Buffett’s ability to cope with climate risk, and other insurance risk, is the following;
Berkshire Hathaway 4th-quarter profit up 32 per cent
…
“I think these results are pretty good”, Edward Jones analyst Jim Shanahan said. Volumes may fall this year as low fuel prices limit shipments of petroleum products and material used for extracting oil, Berkshire said. Buffett has warned that it will be increasingly hard for Berkshire to continue beating the market because the company is so large.
Read more: http://stateofthestateks.com/2016/03/07/berkshire-hathaway-4th-quarter-profit-up-32-per-cent/
Perhaps it is possible, that Warren Buffett knows how to manage an insurance business.
If the risk is unmanageable insurers don’t insure it. Most household policies specifically exclude loss or damage from war or Acts of God such as meteorite strikes for instance. While Thermageddon may be sudden in geological terms, ephemeral humans will have time to adjust and Mr Buffet and his successors still turn a profit. This storm in a teacup merely underlines just how detached are the catastrophists from reality.
In this case following the money is exactly where it is at.. He is no fool.
Mock horror… um, I meant shock horror.
….yeah right Insurance companies will undercharge for their coverage. That will be an absolute first.
Open up a Green and you will find unconnected mush filling the space between their ears.
Where do Greenpeace go to find all these useful idiots?
And why are so many of them named Naomi??
Well here’s where Greenpeace and the Guardian can make a stack of money.
Go to the stock market and short all of Warren Buffett’s insurance companies.
……..on the other hand if Warrens right…….
There was plenty of rebuttal to the Guardian article in the comments section. This was one:
I saw someone make a comment on one of the Guardians Climate stories yesterday and they mentioned the song Imagine.
I wonder what it would be like if we we didn’t have to listen to the constant doom and gloom from so called climate scientists. Would we notice anything different about the climate.
Imagine there’s no climate science
It’s easy if you try
No heat hiding in the oceans
Above us lonely CO2
Imagine all the people living for today
Imagine there’s no IPCC
it isn’t hard to do
Nothing to falsify or lie for
And no hockey sticks too
Imagine all the people living life in peace, yooou
You may say I’m a sceptic
But I’m not the only one
I hope some day you’ll join us
And the world will be as one
Imagine no climate funding
I wonder if you can
No need for grants or adjustments
No brotherhood of Mann
Imagine all the people not scared of the climate, yooou
You may say I’m a doubter
But I’m not the only one
I hope some day you’ll join us
And the world will be as warm
If we accept, for sake of argument, that we are on an exponential curve it matters where we are on the curve. Currently, we are on the portion of the curve where the rate of increase is so small that it is swamped by noise. In other words, we can’t tell that we are on an exponential curve.
When the signal is finally strong enough to distinguish from the noise I guarantee that the cacophony from the alarmists will be so loud that the insurers won’t be able to miss it. In other words, the insurers have an early warning system, the alarmists. The insurers will have an excuse to dramatically increase premiums, in excess of what is actually warranted, and the panicked public will accept that.
God bless the alarmists, the saviours of the insurance industry.
Greenpeace are to environment as FIFA are to football.
Guardian Media Group never minded fossil fuel investment until someone pointed it out to the Guardian crackpots. Then all of a sudden they were “divesting”.
The Guardian doesn’t like off shore money dealings, but the Guardian media group do.
“exponential increase in climate damage”
maybe so but no evidence to blame that on fossil fuel emissions
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/292991614_THE_SPURIOUSNESS_OF_CORRELATIONS_BETWEEN_CUMULATIVE_VALUES
The major DAGW scaremonger in insurance circles has long been Munich Re, which takes the view that weather worries are a great lubricant for premium increases.
And that’s awkward because Berkshire Hathaway, its largest shareholder, believes transparency is a better way to earn its clients’ trust.
IPCC WG2 AR5 Ch10 has a substantial section on climate change and insurance. It argues that the insurance market needs to change and that, if it does reform, risks are manageable.
https://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/report/full-report/
Buffett certainly isn’t saying that there’s no need to worry about climate change. His letter is here. Here is the relevant part:
“If super-cats become costlier and more frequent, the likely – though far from certain – effect on Berkshire’s insurance business would be to make it larger and more profitable.”
I see what he means.
OT: did you guys see all these holes opening up in Siberia ?
https://www.rt.com/news/316261-siberia-crater-new-abnormal/
Warren is an Omaha boy. I grew up there. I’m friends with his wife’s former hair dresser.
Smart feller. For a Democrat.
A single share in Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett’s company, trades at about 208,000.00 USD. The Guardian is running with an annual loss of £ 25,000,000.00 – I think I know which of them has the better business acumen.
Pointman
The standard insurance formula calculates premiums based of the product of the probability of loss times the severity of the loss.
Warren Buffett is insuring based on the probability of loss in the real world and not the probability of loss in broken climate models that have never shown any skill at predicting what actually happens in the real world. Buffett made a fortune betting against the increased frequency and severity of hurricanes that was predicted to occur after Hurricane Katrina.
Green nincompoops telling Warren Buffett how to invest would be like me telling Roger Federer that he does not know how to serve and that I know better.
After reading about UN climate hypocrite Leo dicaprios ” Eco resort ” which will cover 1/2 the land area of a previously uninhabited and undeveloped tropical island with capital intensive energy intensive residences for uber wealthy oligarchs and His eco conferences , my first thought was who in the world would insure a beach front sea level mega development on an island barely above sea level in the middle of the Caribbean hurricane zone ? Even with a former Goldman Sachs honcho as his partner who would insure such a thing ? Inquiring minds want to know . If actions speak louder than words clearly Leo and his buds aren’t too concerned about sea level rise or the threat of future hurricanes .
If you accept the fact that the Earth’s climate systems are too complex to model and understand then it seems to me that adding on the additional layer of an even more complex world economy pretty much makes economic predictions of the impact of climate change completely impossible.
friend told me.
agw must be real… the insurance companies believe it is.
true ,
left me standing jawdropped
Now here’s a real money-losing insurance program …
Union of Concerned Scientists: Overwhelming Risk. Rethinking Flood Insurance in a World of Rising Seas
http://assets.njspotlight.com/assets/13/0813/2103
If Berkshire loses money the cost is borne by the stockholders who can stop being stockholders any time they want. The cost of the National Flood Insurance Program is borne by taxpayers who don’t have the same option.
This nicely exposes the Green Blob’s failure to accept ANY contrary opinion to AGW or any component of it. Criticism = heresy, with NO exceptions. What Warren Buffet doesn’t know about his business isn’t worth knowing, yet rather issue a considered response their reaction is simply to lash out and attack everything he said. Pitiful stuff.
Whimper fury is a better description
People don’t read the Guardian to learn anything (and fewer are reading it all) which is good since they never will.
‘Airlines illustrate just how hard it can be to keep rates rising in step with fluctuations in jet fuel prices. …’
Er, given their increase in profits due to fuel costs falling I don’t think they are having much of a problem. Although now they are facing demands to reduce ticket prices in the light of the increased profits.