Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Bill Gates thinks we need a miracle to solve the world’s energy needs, a safe, reliable, non polluting form of energy which could bring electricity to the rural poor of Africa. The odd thing is, such a “miracle” is within our grasp; but nobody seems to be interested.
From Bill Gates’ Annual Letter;
Africa has made extraordinary progress in recent decades. It is one of the fastest-growing regions of the world with modern cities, hundreds of millions of mobile phone users, growing Internet access, and a vibrant middle class.
But as you can see from the areas without lights, that prosperity has not reached everyone. In fact, of the nearly one billion people in sub-Saharan Africa, 7 out of every 10 of them live in the dark, without electricity. The majority of them live in rural areas. You would see the same problem in Asia. In India alone, more than 300 million people don’t have electricity.
If you could zoom into one of those dark areas in that photograph, you might see a scene like this one. This is a student doing her homework by candlelight.
I’m always a little stunned when I see photographs like this. It’s been well over a century since Thomas Edison demonstrated how an incandescent light bulb could turn night into day. (I’m lucky enough to own one of his sketches of how he planned to improve his light bulb. It’s dated 1885.) And yet, there are parts of the world where people are still waiting to enjoy the benefits of his invention.
If I could have just one wish to help the poorest people, it would be to find a cheap, clean source of energy to power our world.
Read more: https://www.gatesnotes.com/2016-Annual-Letter
Bill Gates is a strange mix. Some of the things he says, his lack of respect for democracy, are very off-putting. But unlike many greens, he is honest with himself and others, that current generation renewables are not a viable replacement for fossil fuels.
How about my claim, that an energy miracle is, or should be, within our grasp?
What if I said it is possible to produce a nuclear battery, which does not emit dangerous radiation, which could be used to build a lightweight, backpack size generator, capable of producing enough continuous electricity, to power a fridge and a few household lights for half a century, without needing a refuel?
How much difference would it make to the world, if such devices could be mass produced, and distributed to poor people who don’t have access to other sources of energy?
There is a nuclear fuel source which fits this description – Plutonium 238.
Plutonium 238 is ridiculously safe. Unlike other isotopes of Plutonium, Pu238 is a prolific alpha emitter, but it emits very little dangerous penetrating radiation. This almost eliminates the need for shielding – a sheet of stainless steel would block all the alpha radiation.
Pu238 is so safe, it used to be used as the core of nuclear pacemakers; people had Plutonium nuclear batteries implanted in their bodies. This procedure was only discontinued, when cheaper, long life chemical batteries became available.
Plutonium 238 is also very energy dense – it emits around half a watt per gram. A kilogram of Plutonium 238 generates 500 watts of energy. With a half life of 87 years, a few kilograms of Pu238 could produce more than enough energy to power a few simple household appliances, for several decades, without needing a refuel.
The big issue with Pu238 is cost, and scarcity – but there is a possible solution. Thorium fuel cycle reactors produce significant quantities of Plutonium 238 as a byproduct. The fuel cycle could likely be designed to optimise Plutonium 238 production.
Clean, cheap, safe Thorium power for rich countries, and an endless supply of nuclear batteries for poor people, to provide them with access to all the modern conveniences we take for granted – internet, refrigeration, electric light.
I hope you read this Bill. If you are looking for an energy miracle, don’t ignore the nuclear option.
Update – David L. Hagen points out that Bill Gates is investing in nuclear power, through his investment in Terrapower.
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This from a man who can’t integrate windows 8.1 with windows 10. He will blow the planet up/
This is my favourite fusion strategy:
https://youtu.be/y5cAcH-89FQ
Focus Fusion is in a fairly advanced state of research. The concept has been proven to work, but they are a small outfit and hit snags like their tungsten cathode having cracks that needed to be repaired, or oxidization on the surface of causing impurities and loss of efficiency, which slow down the development. It’s not the actual physics or engineering half the time, just unanticipated complications.
mine too, agnostic. Gates should throw them the few millions they’d need to bring it to commercialization. Dr. Lerner points out that what they’re working through simply takes time – vast sums of money won’t particularly speed the processes., but on the other hand what would be pocket change at the Tokamak would enable the research team to concentrate on the task at hand.
Beautiful stuff = working with the natural instabilities of plasma…their story is illustrative of the evils of power, money, egos, etc, in science. Were it not for this, it would be in use today
“Dr. Lerner points out that what they’re working through simply takes time – vast sums of money won’t particularly speed the processes.,”
Yeah he says that but don’t necessarily believe it. There are lots of ways that parts of the project could be developed in parallel….it took ages to get the tungsten cathode sorted out, but they should be trying with one, they should be trying with lots of other types of cathode design. For example, they had to develop a coating for the cathode to stop it oxidising. The reason they need to use tungsten is because they need a material that is resistant to very intense X-ray bursts.
Incidentally, Dr Lerner pointed out that the process they use is (hugely) scaled down version of a natural phenomena – quasars. I also love that a large portion of the energy can be recaptured by the cathode which acts as an inductor. But the thing I love about it most is all the boxes it ticks;
– it’s simple
– it would be relatively cheap to construct and operate
– it captures the energy simply (induction)
– it is aneutronic.
– it is scalable (within the limits of the materials).
– it is in a very mature stage of development. They have plans to build the first commercial scale unit underway. Undoubtedly there will be snags but gee – it’s looking pretty good so far.
Hi Agnostic, love to learn more about Focus Fusion. If you have time please write it up and submit it as a new post to Anthony.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/submit-a-story/
That’s a good idea Eric. I might just do that. That would be interesting and fun to have a go at.
mod, mods, moderator is there anybody out there? I wrote the word [pruned]
[We saw, we sawed, its pruned. .mod]
Ok so we can provide cheap nuclear reactors/coal plants/gas plants. These all produce one thing – that is heat. Now convert your 10kW of heat into 3kW of electricity in a hot dry climate. The only sensible way of going from het to electricity is via steam and turbines. These are not 100% recyclers of water.
Please explain where the water comes from.
Thermoelectricks? No you still need a cold junction – how are you going to cool it. Water maybe?
Who is going to tend the turbines,
Who is going to pay for the infrastructure to distribute the power.
Who is going to pay for the police required to protect the infrastructure.
Local power is the answer. 60Wh is all that is required to provide light in one house.
30W/hours is probably enough for one laptop for one day.
One recyclable battery, a couple of 250w solar panels would be enough for 20 or more dwellings.
which is more preferable and more affordable?
” The only sensible way of going from het to electricity is via steam and turbines. These are not 100% recyclers of water.”
Sergei: Look up Braydon Cycle. This works on the same principle as a jet engine. The heat exchange heats compressed air that drives a turbine.
If the malinvestment of subsidizing renewable energy, running into the trillions of dollars, was redirected to try to make fusion rectors, we might solve the energy problem for good.
A word of caution though. Freeman Dyson is of the opinion that the reason we do not already have fusion reactors in that governments have backed the wrong technological approaches. This is always the problem when governments try to pick winners, or fall prey to aggressive lobbying.
To the moderator maybe.
If find it sad to see.
That hunters have not glimed.
That E-catX and P&F crouch waiting.
Yes, Thorium is the answer. We are out of Plutonium 238, used in space probes. The end product of Thorium based power is PU238. Let us have a Manhattan sized Thorium Nuclear power for electricity generation Here are: Eleven reasons to switch to Thorium based Nuclear Power generation.
http://lenbilen.com/2012/02/15/eleven-reasons-to-switch-to-thorium-based-nuclear-power-generation/
and: http://lenbilen.com/2012/02/15/eleven-more-reasons-to-switch-to-thorium-as-nuclear-fuel/
and:Nuclear power and earthquakes. How to make it safer and better
http://lenbilen.com/2012/02/15/nuclear-power-and-earthquakes-how-to-make-it-safer-and-better/
and: Nuclear Power. Why we chose Uranium over Thorium and ended up in this mess. Time to clean up.
http://lenbilen.com/2012/02/15/nuclear-power-why-we-chose-uranium-over-thorium-and-ended-up-in-this-mess-time-to-clean-up/
Africa… where the mass of the $2-a-day humans live. Where corruptocracies rule. Where foreign NGO’s go to steal everything. Where all that foreign aid gets laundered back to the countries it came from. Where US and IMF-backed strong men ensure no economic development so foreign multinationals can remove all the natural resources for “the West”.
Building power plants? Who will pay for them? Who will build them? Who maintain and operate them? Who will even be able to buy the product? Most of them can barely afford food, much less an electric bill.
Private business will see no profit from investment in African energy, so it will have to come from the governments, even though everyone will scream “socialism!”. But the governments are composed of thieves who steal everything that’s worth stealing.
Africa does need a miracle.
Come on, Andy, it’s just an appeal to pity. It used to be, “We must do it for the children.” Now, it’s “We must do it for the world’s poorest people.” Beyond being neocolonialist, it’s wildly impractical, as you note.
Now, if you challenge Eric Worrell’s fantastical thorium dream, you have “contempt for the world’s poorest people.”
And when will it become economic to start drilling for Geothermal heat/energy?
The cost of utility scale solar (not rooftop scale) continues to fall and the speed to construct them expressed in BOS costs is rapidly falling too. They are at the point of completing nuclear plant scale projects before the real nukes complete their design and permit phase. And the cost over runs of nuclear (and nextgen clean coal) would fund another equivalent half nuclear plant project to boot. If DOE and NREL wanted to do something useful for society, they could do a better job tracking costs of utility scale projects of different types for better information flow to consumers, regulators, and utility providers. The cost over run game has gone too far.
Dear Readers
Pu238 is NOT a nuclear fuel it is a radioactive isotope of plutonium used in Radio Isotope Themal Generators. Essentially the heat from the radioactive decay provides the power by using a thermocouple. Pu238 is produced by the neutron irradiation of americium or neptunium in a reactor. Yields are small and production is expensive. Worse still no new supply of Pu238 gas been produced for over a decade and stocks for current usage, mainly deep space missions, are dangerously low.
RTG’s are LOW power devices, the largest Pu238 device produced less than 150 watts. This is perhaps the dumbest idea Bill Gates ever came up with, a million dollar device that can power a couple of light bulbs isn’t going to solve the power problems of Africa.
There is a source of clean renewable power in Africa in the form of hydroelectric power. Africa has 12% of potential global hydro power but only produces 7% of that potential as actual power, most of this in southern Africa, The Greens of course resolutely oppose ALL hydro power developments but the biggest problem is political. The combination of endemic corruption and political instability is the major problem preventing its usage as the power consumers are often in different countries than the consumers and there is no power grid in place to handle this.
Gates has his good side, and his pest side. He waxes on about the progress of Africa. What progress? He appears to notice the teeming millions, but ignores the impact: Africa is simply drowning in people. Electricity might be a help, sure. Birth control would be even better. Africa’s problems, politically, economically, culturally, are insuperable. It’s long past time we in the west got hold of this truth.
“Electricity might be a help, sure. Birth control would be even better.”
======================================================================
Many studies make a convincing case that the two go hand in hand.
Molten salt reactors are the miracle energy source and are right around the corner. Check out Transatomicpower.com to see exactly why this is the most efficient, safest and without need for mining uranium for a very long time – it burns nuckear waste, eliminating that problem as well.
Greens will ignore all viable energy sources because they don’t want cheap clean energy for the world. They want the human population decimated. We are the dangerous, invasive organism that must be irradiated. The more honest among them even use that phrasing.
We can stop sanctifying Bill Gates. His Foundation is not and never will be about him giving away his billions. It is a tax shelter. His money resides within the foundation and is invested in stocks and other fiscal instruments. It earns income. If he “donates” a small percentage of the annual earnings, he gets to pay no taxes on the rest.
If he is donating vaccines to third world countries, it is to benefit a pharmaceutical company that his foundation is invested in. If he is pushing battery technology, you can bet dollars to donuts that he is invested in a battery company.
This man built a lifelong reputation of not giving anything to anyone, including charities. It makes no sense that he would now give it all away.
Just one, Bill? How about 4? We already have coal, natural gas, nuclear (the big 3), and hydro. Obviously, which source(s) used would depend on the area. Not the answer he wants to hear, I know.
That’s a good BINGO we have a winner. Nothing like a little common sense!
Whoa dude. Pu238 produces about 0.5 Watts thermal per gram. And costs about $8 million per kilogram. So a 1 Giga watt plant would require, assuming a rather optimistic 30 percent efficiency, about $53 trillion dollars worth of Pu238. Or to put it another way, to provide the average electrical consumption per person of about 10 kW would require about $0.5 Billion. Maybe not the miracle we are looking for.
Wouldn’t it just be easyer to build coal fired power plants with the latest clean scrubber technology?
Send your ideas to ISIS because they are well on course to seizing a majority of the African continent. They will do so before Bill Gates and Obama wake up.
Resource guy, cogent comment I think. I am of the view that the O and Hillary have only aided the barbaric Islamic ideology in Africa, and elsewhere, be it ISIS or other Sharia law loving religious statists.
I think it’s more a case of don’t ask don’t tell type fight against terrorism or maybe hear no evil see no evil because it might suggest all is not well outside the official political agenda. This was first noticed during the Clinton years when 747s were falling out of the sky along Long Island and the most the Clintons could do was fire some cruise missiles at empty warehouse buildings and empty camps in various countries. They are much better at attacking gun rights like when that Egyptian slaughtered people at the Empire State Building.
“Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are nuclear power plants that are smaller in size (300 MWe or less) than current generation base load plants (1,000 MWe or higher). These smaller, compact designs are factory-fabricated reactors that can be transported by truck or rail to a nuclear power site. SMRs will play an important role in addressing the energy security, economic and climate goals of the U.S. if they can be commercially deployed within the next decade. ”
http://www.energy.gov/ne/nuclear-reactor-technologies/small-modular-nuclear-reactors
As always, some folks around here talk like they know how absolutely everything should be done. Why don’t ya’ll go out and do it?
… limited resources.
… PC opposition.
If I could have just one wish to help Bill Gates make his wishes come true, it would be that I had access to his resources.
Google “Radioisotope thermoelectric generator”. They’ve been around since the 50’s. Wiki has an interesting article on them. Thorium doesn’t work well in this application because it is TOO stable. With a half life of 14 billion years, it emits too little energy to provide a good power source.
Problem solved already !!
http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2016/02/24/ambitious-free-electric-bike-project-brings-energy-to-poverty-stricken-areas.html?intcmp=hpbt2
Sorry, Marcus. Didn’t see yours before I posted below…
.. Well, at least I’m not the only one that does that !! LOL
Problem Solved!!!
http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2016/02/24/ambitious-free-electric-bike-project-brings-energy-to-poverty-stricken-areas.html?intcmp=hpbt2
As a side benefit, sort of a co-product, this should produce an endless supply of Tour de France competitors and NFL running backs. /sarc
.. Great minds think alike…and watch the same news channel !!
“Hoping for a miracle” is where you end up after a series of disastrously poor decisions leaves you facing inescapable catastrophe. C.f the Third Reich leadership at the end of WW2 pinning their hopes on miracle weapons.
Thus it is not surprising that energy policy makers in “western” countries, who have voluntarily placed themselves in the shadow of a completely artificial non-problem, and have paralyzed energy decision making by allowing themselves to be dominated by feeble-minded muddle-headed chattering class arts student eco-activists, now find themselves in need of a miracle.
Nuclear power is forbidden by the eco-shamans. Coal and gas are forbidden by the eco-shamans. Even hydroelectric is taboo. Wind and solar have not proved the eutopian panacea that we were promised (clean energy too cheap to meter). Where can the policy-making house of fools turn now? Only to the eco-shamans, to find an energy miracle somewhere where the sun does not shine.
Hey, just hold on a minute there!
You, dear sir, are forgetting about pixie dust, ground unicorn horn, and rainbows.
Robert
I was keeping quiet about those before my share purchases in those promising new renewables were in the bag.